【摩根士丹利】亚洲暑期学校：香港-东盟银行

Morganstanley

RESEARCHFouNDATloN

June5,202609:01AMGMT

InvestorPresentation|AsiaPacific

AsiaSummerSchool:HK/ASEANBanks

Thesessionwillcoverindustrystructure,individualbanksunderourcoverageandstockpricedrivers.Wealsofocusonkeythematicsincludingcapitalreturns,wealthmanagement,Singapore’sEQDPandtheemergenceofdigitalassets.

MoRGANSTANLEyAsiA(SiNGApoRE)PTE.+NickLord

EquityAnalyst

Nick.Lord@

+656834-6746

SelvieJusman,CFAEquityAnalyst

Selvie.Jusman@

+656834-6517

AitongLi

ResearchAssociate

Aitong.Li@

+656834-6295

ASEANFiNaNcials

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewIn-Line

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

2

MorganstanleyRESEARCHFouNDATloN

AsiaSummerSchool2026

MorganstanleyRESEARCHFouNDATloN

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH3

I.MAPPINGHK/ASEANBANKS

4

BankingMarketsinContext

DevelopedMarkets

LowSensitivitytoUS

InterestRates

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

EmergingMarketsLowCredit

Penetration

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH5

ASEANinaGlimpse

CreditPenetration

Nonfinancialcorporateandhouseholddebtas%GDP

IndonesiaPhilippinesMalaysiaSingaporeThailand

0%50%100%150%200%

Source:CEIC,Haver,MorganStanleyResearch.Dataasofend

of2025.

CapitalPosition

Avg.CET1

PhilippinesMalaysia

RegulatoryRequirement

IndonesiaThailand

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Singapore

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch

Themes

S

ReturnLevel

RoE(2025)

Thailand

Malaysia

Singapore

Philippines

Indonesia

-2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch

CapitalReturn

Dividendyield(2026e)

-

25.0%35.0%45.0%55.0%65.0%75.0%85.0%95.0%

Dividendpayout(2026e)

BRI

BNI

Mandiri

TTBCIMB

KTB

KBANKBCA

MBBMPUBMOCBC

BBLBPI

TCB

BDO

ource:MorganStanleyResearchestimates

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

SCBX

DBS

UOB

6

ASENBanksEvolvingIndustryLandscape

Indonesia

•Rebuiltinthewakeofthe1998Asia

FinancialCrisis,Indonesia'sbanks

havegrownloansatan8%CAGR

(2014-25)Thishasbeendrivenbythecountry’sprivatedebttoGDPratiooflessthan50%,thelowestinthe

region,andstrongeconomicgrowthintherecentpast.

•Theindustry'sloan/depositratio

(LDR),climbedfrom44%in2002to96%inMay-19asdepositslagged

loangrowth.Inthepasttwoyears,

softerloangrowthandrisingliquidityhasdrivenafallinLDRto80%(Dec2022),buthasrecoveredto~90%

now.

•Sectorisdominatedbyfourlarge

banks,thereisalsoalongtailofmidandsmallsizedbanks,potentially

leadingtomoreconsolidation.

Thailand

•Adevelopingmarketwithstructuralissuesduetohighlyindebted

economy,(householddebtofGDPof~87%)andageingdemographics.

•Loangrowthhasslowedsignificantlysince2014to2-5%.Assetquality

hasbeenanissuesince2012whenthebanksfacedconsumer/auto

creditqualityissue,followedbySMEcreditissuesin2014andmore

recentlycreditqualityissuesfrom

Covid-19.Afterseveralyearsofloanbookconsolidation,thequestionis

whethercreditqualityisnowonasounderfooting.

•Returnshavebeenunderpressurefromlowerfeesandhighercredit

charges.Bankslookingtodevelophighermarginbusinessesoutsideoftraditionalcompetenciese.g.,digitalunsecuredlending,wealth

•Relativelyconcentratedbanking

systemleavinglittleroomforfurtherconsolidation

Philippines

•Bankingsectorpredominantlycaterstocorporatecustomers;thisisoneofthedriversoflowhistoricRoA.Loangrowthslowedmateriallyin2019-21,before

recoveringto8%loangrowthin2023and12%in2024and10%in2025.

•Financialinclusionisonthecentralbank’sagendaandthereisastrongpushtowardscashlesstransactions,butbankshavelaggedintheirdigitaltransformation.

•Costtoincomeratioisoneofthe

highestintheregiondrivenby

investmentandthePhilippines

archipelagicgeography.AssetqualityhasnotbeenanissuesincetheGFCandthebankshavemanagedcredit

risksfromCovid-19well,helpedbylowsystemleverage.

•Historically,capitalratiostendtobeatthelowerend,andcapitalraisingis

commonineachcreditcyclebutlowloangrowthoverthepastyearshaschangedthedynamics.

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH7

EvolvingIndustryLandscape

Singapore

•Amatureeconomywitha

relativelylowloangrowthof3-

5%.Interestratehasbeenoneofthelargestdriversofreturns.

Marketisrelativelyconsolidated.

•MostofthebankshaveregionalpresencewithDBSandOCBC

havingaGreaterChinafocusandUOBhasmoreofafocusin

ASEAN.

•Singaporebankshavebuilta

respectablefeefranchise,

particularlywealthmanagement.Inrecentyearstherehasbeenagreaterfocusoncapitalreturns.Thebanksareseenasglobal

leadersindigitization,especiallyDBS.Singaporeisaleaderinthedigitalassetsspace.

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch

Malaysia

•Arelativelymaturemarketandloangrowthhasslowedto5-6%,with

mortgagesasoneofthelargest

driversofloangrowth.AssetqualityinMalaysiahasbeenrelatively

stable.

•SomeofthebankshaveregionalASEANpresence.CIMBhas

significantexposuretoIndonesiaandMaybankhassignificant

exposuretoSingapore.

•Thereisarenewedfocuson

managingreturnswithrising

shareholderpayouts.Inthepasttherehasbeendiscussionson

banks’consolidation,eventhoughthesectorisalreadyrelatively

consolidated.

•SinceMalaysiahasalargeMuslimpopulation,thecountryhasadualbankingsystem,conventionalandIslamic.

8

HKBanksSnapshot

LoanBookSplit

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch.DataasofFY25.Databasedonlegallocationofguarantor;economicallocationofloansmaybedifferent

CapitalPosition

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch.Reg.reqreferstoPillar1.HKbanksalsohaveanundisclosedPillar2requirement

Themes

ReturnLevel

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch

DividendPayoutandYield

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH9

WhoaretheHKBanks?

HSBC(5.HK)

•ALondon-headquarteredbankwitha

dominantmarketshareinHK(33%

grouprevenues)andalargepresenceinUK(20%grouprevenues).Therestof

thegroupspreadacrosstherestofAsiaandEurope,theMiddleEastandthe

Americas.

•Adeposit-drivenfranchisewithastrongCASAratio,especiallyinHK.HSBCisratesensitive.

•Thekeydifferentiatingfactorisitsglobalnetwork,withastrongfocuson

leveragingthatnetworktosupporttradeandcapitalflowsandtogrowitswealthbusinesses.

•RoEimprovingandthegrouptargets17%orbetterRoTEineachyearfrom2026to2028.

•WeexpectincreasedITinvestmentasHSBClookstotransformitsbusiness.

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch

StandardChartered(2888.HK)

•ALondon-headquartered,emergingmarkets-focusedbank,with60%ofincomefromAsia,6%fromUAEand14%fromtheUKandUS.Ithas81kemployeesacross54markets.

•ItsurvivedGFCwellbutwashitbycreditproblemsin2015-17.Theturnaround

andtransformationarenowcomplete.Managementisfocusedonachieving

leadershipinfourkeyareas,EM

wholesalebanking,massretail,affluentclientbusiness(wealth)and

sustainability.

•RoTEisimproving(11.9%in2025),thekeydriverofsharepriceswillbethe

extenttowhichRoTEcanbeliftedtowardsthe>15%targetby2028e.

BOCHK(2388.HK)

•65.65%ownedbyBankOfChina(BOC).

•HK-focusedbusiness,with15%/20%

deposit/loanmarketshareinHKandaCASAratioof53.4%.Historically,ithasgrownloansanddepositsaheadofthemarket.

•CNYclearingbank,dominantmarketshareinChina-linkedIPOs.

•MainlandChinapresenceislowerthanotherlocalHKbanks(5%totalloans).In2016/17,itacquiredmostofBOC’s

ASEANbusinesses.

•Operateswithalowcost/incomeratio(~24%),lowcreditcosts(<50bps),andhighcapitalratios.~50%dividend

payout.

10

II.THEFUNDAMENTALS

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH11

ReturnsProfile

2025IndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailand

BOCHKHSBCStan.C

Netintincome

5.1%

2.1%

4.1%

1.6%

2.9%

1.2%1.1%1.3%

Interestincome

7.3%

3.7%

5.9%

3.3%

4.0%

2.8%3.1%2.9%

Interestexpense

-2.1%

-1.7%

-1.8%

-1.7%

-1.1%

1.6%2.0%1.6%

Non-intincome

2.0%

0.8%

1.5%

0.9%

1.3%

0.6%1.2%1.1%

Netfeeincome

1.1%

0.3%

0.9%

0.1%

0.7%

0.3%0.4%0.5%

Noninterestincome

0.9%

0.5%

0.7%

0.9%

0.6%

0.3%0.7%0.6%

Operatingincome

7.1%

2.8%

5.6%

2.5%

4.1%

1.8%2.3%2.4%

Operatingexpense

-3.0%

-1.3%

-3.0%

-1.1%

-1.8%

0.4%1.1%1.5%

Pre-provisionprofit

4.1%

1.6%

2.6%

1.4%

2.3%

1.4%1.2%0.9%

Provision

-0.8%

-0.1%

-0.4%

-0.2%

-0.8%

0.2%0.1%0.1%

LoanLossProvision

-0.9%

-0.1%

-0.4%

-0.2%

-0.8%

0.2%0.1%0.1%

Otherprovisions

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%0.0%0.0%

Operatingprofits

3.3%

1.4%

2.2%

1.3%

1.4%

1.2%1.2%0.8%

Others

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%0.0%0.0%

PBT

3.3%

1.4%

2.2%

1.3%

1.5%

1.1%1.2%0.8%

Tax

-0.7%

-0.3%

-0.4%

-0.2%

-0.3%

0.2%0.2%0.2%

PAT

2.6%

1.1%

1.8%

1.1%

1.2%

0.9%0.7%0.6%

Minorities

-0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%0.1%0.1%

ROA

2.6%

1.1%

1.8%

1.1%

1.1%

0.9%0.7%0.5%

Leverage(x)

7.2

10.4

8.2

11.9

8.1

12.319.723.3

ROE

18.4%

11.2%

14.5%

13.2%

9.1%

11.4%13.3%12.0%

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch

12

MarketStructureinASEAN

Singapore

Stan.CHSBC

RHB

MBBM

CIMB

OCBC

UOB

DBS

LoanDeposit

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

MBBMCIMBUOB

TMB

KTB

KbankBBL

SCBx

LoanDeposit

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

PhilippinesThailand

Malaysia

HSBC

MBBM

CIMBUOB

OCBC

BBNIBBCABBRIBMRI

LoanDeposit

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

HSBC

UOB

OCBC

RHB

AMMB

CIMB

PublicBank

Maybank

LoanDeposit

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Indonesia

0%

LoanDeposit

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

SECB

Metro

BPI

BDO

Source:CompanyReports,CentralBanksdata,MorganStanleyResearch

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH13

MarketSharesinHongKong

LoanforuseinHKmarketshare

HSBC,29%

Others,37%

BOCHK,20%

DBS(HK),3%

BEA,4%STANC,7%

Mortgagemarketshare

BC,40%DBS(HK),1

STANC,1

Others,20%%

BEA,5%

1%

BOCHK,23%

HS

Depositmarketshare

HSBC,25%

Others,44%

BOCHK,15%

STANC,

11%

DBS(HK),

2%

BEA,4%

Creditcardmarketshare

Others,

DBS(H

6%

BEA,2%

BC,48%

STAN

22%

13%

K),

HS

C,

BOCHK,8%

Source:HKMA,CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch;*theseareapproximatemarketsharesascompanydisclosuremaybeinconsistent

14

BankRevenuesaredominatedbyNII,exceptforHSBCandStandardChartered

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH15

LoanandDepositGrowth

LDR

SGMYTHPHIDHK

2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

130%

120%

110%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

LoanGrowthYoY

SGMYTHPHIDHK

2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

CASANonCASA

DepositsMix

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

DepositGrowthYoY

SGMYTHPHIDHK

2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch.SingaporeLDRreferstoS$LDRandtherewasabreakinseriesin2021asMASchangeddisclosureinJuly2021.

16

FeesSplit

DBSOCBCUOBBBLKbankSCBXKTBTMBCIMBMaybankPublicHSBCBOCHK

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

ServicechargesInsurance

Trade-relatedFundmgmt

Brokerage

Wealthmgmt

CommissionCreditCard

Loan-relatedOther

IBD

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch.Definitionmayvaryacrossthebanksmentioned.

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH17

OperatingExpenses

4.00%

3.50%

3.00%

2.50%

2.00%

1.50%

1.00%

0.50%

0.00%

201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Cost:Assets

MalaysiaPhilippines

SingaporeHongKong

IndonesiaThailand

201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

Cost:Income

MalaysiaPhilippines

SingaporeHongKong

IndonesiaThailand

CostSplit

StaffPPE/General&AdminDepn&AmortisationOther

62%61%

45%46%

34%

SingaporeMalaysiaThailandIndonesiaPhilippinesHongKong

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

58%

CostGrowthCAGR(%)

2015-20202020-2025

IndonesiaMalaysiaSingaporeThailandPhilippinesHongKong

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

1

1

1

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch.HongKongdataincludeHSBCHK,StandardCharteredHongKong,andBOCHK

18

CreditQualityandProvisions

Basicindicatorsofbanks’assetquality:grossNPLratio,specialmentionedloans,restructuredloans,provisioningcoverageandcostofcredit

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH19

Capital&Dividend

CET1Ratio

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

2025RequirementMgmttarget

DBS

OCBC

UOB

Maybank

CIMB

PUBM

BMRI

BNI

BRI

BCA

TMB

KTB

BBL

SCBx

KBANK

BDO

BPI

BOCHK

HSBC

Stan.C

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch.

SingaporebanksCET1referstofullyphasedinCET1.

Capitalreturn

Source:CompanyReports,MorganStanleyResearch

20

III.KEYDEBATES?

MorganstanleyRESEARCHFouNDATloN

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH21

TotalShareholderReturnandValuation

TotalShareholderReturn

ReturnonEquity

RE(ROE)F

BMRI

BBRI

BBNI

PUBM

SECB

BPI

BBCA

BDO

TMB

TCB

CIMB

UOB

BBL

STANC

BOCHK

HSBC

KTB

SCBx

OCBC

KBANK

MBBM

DBS

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

BVPSgrowth

Divyield

2026e2027e10YAvg(2016-2025)20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

eturnonquityorecasts

25%

DBS

OCBC

UOB

CIMB

MBBM

PUBM

BPI

BDO

BBL

SCBX

KBANK

KTB

TMB

BBCA

BMRI

BBNI

BBRI

TCB

BOCHK

HSBC

STANC

Source:CompanyReports,e=MorganStanleyResearchestimates

MorganstanleyRESEARCHFouNDATloN

22

WealthManagement

TotalGrowth:WealthAUMandInvestedAssets–SG&HKbanks

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

20222023202420252026e2027e2028e2029e

WealthAUMYoYchg-TotalInvestedAssetsYoYchg-Total

Source:AsiaPrivateBanker,CompanyReports,e=MorganStanleyResearchestimates

NetNewMoneyandInvestedAssets–SG&HKBanks

250

200

150

100

50

0

202420252026e2027e2028e

IndustryTotalNetNewMoneyIndustryTotalNetNewInvestedAssets

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH23

SingaporeEquityMarketReformTimeline

Source:MAS,SGX,MorganStanleyResearch

24

EquityMarketReforminEmergingASEAN–MalaysiaandThailand

MalaysiaCapitalmarketMasterplan

(2026-2030)

Thailand2026-2028StrategicPlan“BuildingTrust,PoweringGrowth”

Source:SecuritiesCommissionMalaysia,TheSecuritiesandExchangeCommission,Thailand,MorganStanleyResearch

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH25

Tokenization-Asianeconomiesareinverydifferentstatesofdevelopmentandadoption

JurisdictionRegulatoryPostureWholesaleCBDCRetailCBDCTokenizedDepositsTokenizedSecuritiesStablecoinFrameworkKeyPilots/LiveLeadStateRole

HongKong

Enabler

PILOT(ProjectEnsemblesandbox,Aug2024)

PILOT:(eCNYcross-

border;noplansfore-HKD)

LIVE:HSBC,StandardChartered

LIVE(Govtdigitalgreen

bonds,largestgloballyNov2025)

LIVE(OrdinanceAug2025;

HSBC/AnchorpointlicensesApr2026)

Ensemble+,mBridge

Moderate(HKMA

infrastructure+privateexecution)

Singapore

ProactiveEnabler

PILOT(SGDTestnet,Nov2024)

ExplorationthroughProjectOrchid

LIVE(ProjectGuardian,

DBS/OCBC/UOB/HSBC/StanChart)

LIVE(Guardian:fixedincome,funds,FX)

Consultation2024;finalization2025

Guardian

commercialization;GL1

Moderate(MASasconvener,privatenetworks)

China

Cautious

Live(mBridge,cross-

borderandinterbank)

Live(e-CNYAppin2022,

DigitalDepositsinceJan1,2026)

OutrightBan

OutrightBan

OutrightBan

mBridge

Low

Japan

Collaborative

PILOT(BoJblockchain

sandbox2025-2026)

Underevaluation;no

issuancedecisionmadeyet

Pilotstageledbyindividualbanks

Frameworkestablished

(STOregulationsinplace;ongoingincremental

enhancements)

YenstablecoinlaunchedOct2025

RealEstateSTOs,

TokenizedBondTrading,

TokenizedDepositsDvPPilot

Moderate(regulator-led

frameworkwithprivate-

sectorimplementation)

Korea

Constructivebutstillpendingcomprehensivelegislation

PILOT-ProjectHangang:

BoK-ledwholesaleCBDCinfrastructuretested

(currentlyinPhase-2)

NodirectretailCBDC

issuance;retail-facing

tokenizeddepositpilotthroughProjectHangang

PilotthroughProjectHangang

Regulatoryframeworkfortokenizedsecurities

passedinJan2026;

detailedrulesandKSD-ledinfrastructureunder

development

Proposed/underlegislative

debate:DigitalAssetBasicAct/

GeneralActproposalsincludeKRW-denominatedstablecoinsareunderdiscussionbutpendingapproval

ProjectHangang(CBDC);KSDsecurity-token

platform

High:Publicsector-led

framworkand

infrastructure,butwithactiveprivate-sectorpre-positioning

Australia

Constructive

PILOT:(ProjectAcacia)

NOISSUANCE:Noclear

public-interestcasefor

retailCBDCatpresent

PILOT:ProjectAcacia

PILOT:ProjectAcacia

Developing:Stablecoinsexpectedunderstored-value/payment

licensingreforms

ProjectAcacia;ProjectAtom.

Moderate:RBA,

Treasury,ASICandAPRA

India

Calibrateddevelopmentalfocus

PILOT(e₹wholesale)-limitedroll-out

PILOTstage(e₹retail)-limitedroll-out

Exploratorystageincertainproducts

Exploratorystageincertainproducts

Cautiousapproach(noprivateissuance)

1.e₹cross-border-

bilateralengagementwithothercountries,joined

multilateralprojectsledbytheBIS

2.exploringwelfareprogrammability

High(Regulatorled)

Malaysia

Experimentation;Discussionpaperonpaymentsand

sandbox(DAIH)

ParticipantinProject

MandalaandProject

Rialto.Experimenting

integratingaCBDCintoRENTAS

Notanareaoffocus

PilotsinDAIHbyCIMBandMaybank

NA

PilotofRingittstablecoinforB2Bsettlement

DigitizeddepositsandRingittstablecoin

Moderate(BNMroadmap,privateparticipation)

Thailand

Collaborative

LIVEPILOT(mBridge

foundingmember,MVP2024)

RetailCBDChas

completedareal_value

pilot,withnoimmediateissuance.

NA

NA

Proposed

mBridgecross-border

Moderate(BoT

infrastructure+banks)

Indonesia

Earlystage

CompletedProofofConceptin2024

Exploration

NA

Pilottestandexploration(tokenisedgovernmentbond)

Yes,stablecoinsareclassifiedasdigitalassetsbyOJK

Limitedpublicactivity

High(BI-led,capital

controlsensitivity)

Philippines

Exploratory

CompletedProjectAgilaProofofConcept

Notexploring

NA

Exploringgovernmenybonds

Proposed

Limitedpilots

Moderate(BSP

frameworksin

development)

Source:MorganStanleyResearch

26

HongKong—AHybridMarketInfluencedbyKeyGlobalTrendsandChinaRegulatoryInfluence

•Asa