摩根大通-全球数据观察：亚洲：新兴亚洲韧性拥有三大支撑-Global Data Watch：Asia EMAX resilience has a trifecta of underpinnings-20260608

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cotnposm:/iwRws.acu08June2026

GlobalDataWatch:Asia

EMAXresiliencehasatrifectaofunderpinnings

EMAXresiliencehasatrifectaofunderpinnings

IncontrasttodownsiderisksinChina,thereareupsideriskstogrowthintherestofAsia.Threefactorshavecombinedtounderpinthis.First,EMAXhasprovedrelativelyresilientandresourcefulinthefaceoftheenergyshock.Dailytankervolumesofenergyimportshaveimprovedsubstantiallyinrecentweeksandarealmostbacktonormallevels,astheregionaggressivelyscoutsforenergyfromotherlocations.Consequently,thefearednon-linearitiestogrowthseemtohavebeenavoidedfornow.Second,techcontinuestoboom,visiblebothintheAprilIPprintsaswellasinstrongMayKoreatechexportsthisweek,thoughgrowingpriceeffectsfurtherbuoythenominalprints.Third,fiscalpolicyisactiveintheregiontocushiontheenergyshock.Koreaalreadysawalargesupplementarybudgetaftertheoilshockandstrongtechcreatesfiscalspacethatcouldpotentiallybeusedtoprovidemorebuffers.InIndia,thegovernmenthasborneasignificantfractionofthenegativetermsoftradeshock,withretailpricesincreasinglymoremodestly.InMay,Thailandannouncedaheftyfiscalpackagetothetuneof2.1%ofGDPwhichshouldhelpliftgrowthin2H26.Finally,inthePhilippines,weexpectthegovernmenttoenactasupplementarybudgetworth0.7%ofGDPin2H26,whichshouldhelpoffsettheimpactofmonetarypolicytightening.Together,theseforceshavecontributedtoresiliencereflectedintheMayPMIs,withtheEMAXoutputindexreboundingafterslippinginMarchandApril,thoughit’sstillnotbackatpre-conflictlevels.

RBIbuckstheregionalhawkishtilt

Withgrowthholdingup,severalcentralbankshaveturnedtheirattentiontoinflationandbecomeprogressivelyhawkish.TheBSPandBankofIndonesiahavealreadyhikedinrecentweeksandweexpectmoretocome.Lastweek,theBankofKoreaturnedhawkishandwenowexpecttheBoKtohikefourtimesoverthenextyear.TheonecentralbankwherewehavebeenconsistentlymoredovishthanthemarkethasbeentheRBI.TheRBIheldpolicyratesthisweek,aswehadexpected,butbuckingmarketpricingthathadbuiltina60%chanceofa25bpshike.Instead,theRBIdeliveredaboostershotofregulatorymeasurestoattractcapitalinflowsandshoreuptheBalanceofPayments,inthewakeofsustainedpressuresonthecurrency.Intheevent,itunderscoredtheprincipleofseparabilityunderIndia’sInflationTargetingframework,whereinratesandliquidityareusedtoaddressinflationwhileotherinstruments(sterilizedFXinterventionandregulatorypolicy)areusedtocombatexternalsectorpressures.

China:2Qrisksskewdownward,butwithcaveats

WhilePMIsignalsaremixed,weseesomedownsiderisksto2QGDPgrowth.AgainstthebackdropofweakAprilactivity,latestNBSandRatingDogPMIreadingsofferedamixedbag:whiletheheadlinePMIsweakened,outputandRatingDognewordersPMIremainedinexpansionaryterritory.Furthermore,Mayhousingsawanimprovementinsecondaryhomesales,whichmayprovidesomesupportforconsumersentiment.Yet,harddatainMayandJunewouldneedtobouncebackdiscerniblytosupportour2QGDPforecast.

Butevenastherearedownsiderisksto2Q,caveatsexist.First,thiscomesonthebackofaverystrong1Qsuchthat1Hgrowthwouldstillaverage5%ormore.

Seepage26foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.

EmergingMarketsAsia,EconomicandPolicyResearch

SajjidZChinoy

(91-22)6157-3386

sajjid.z.chinoy@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,MumbaiBranch

AnushaMital

(91-22)6157-4113

anusha.mital@

J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimited

Contents

Australia:Datacenterboominperspective

5

DataWatches

Japan

7

JapanFocus:Energysubsidiesbroadentocurb

inflation

10

AustraliaandNewZealand

11

GreaterChina

13

Korea

16

ASEAN

18

India

21

Asiafocus

23

RegionalDataCalendars

24

2

SajjidZChinoy

(91-22)6157-3386

sajjid.z.chinoy@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

08June2026

Second,someofthedownsidein2Qlikelycanbeattributedtofiscalpolicybeinglessfront-loadedthanwasenvisaged.Theimplicationisthattherewillbelesspaybackin2H,andweaknessextendingtoMayactivitywouldlikelypromptfirmerfiscalactionsinJuneandonwards,especiallyif2QGDPprintsbelowthefullyeargrowthtargetrangeof4.5-5%.Inaddition,ChineseexportsstandtogainfromrisingglobalIPandPMIsbackedbyastrongtechupswing.Allthiswouldbesupportiveof2Hgrowth.Whiledomesticconsumptionremainstepid,itsdragisnotexpectedtobecomemoresignificantin2H.Upcomingtradeandactivitydatawillbekeytoassessthenear-termprospects.

Table1:EMAsiadatarelease

Date

Market

Data

Period

Unit

JPM

Consensus

Previous

Mon,08-Jun

Tue,09-Jun

CN

Tradebalance

May

US$bn

92.0

86.2

84.8

CN

Exports

May

%oya

12.1

15

14.1

CN

Imports

May

%oya

22.9

28

25.3

KR

GDPprelim

1Q

%oya

3.6

3.6

1.6

TW

Tradebalance

May

US$bn

17.2

18.9

14.4

TW

Exports

May

%oya

40.3

42.8

39.0

TW

Imports

May

%oya

41.6

40.3

29.2

Wed,10-Jun

CN

PPI

May

%oya

3.8

3.8

2.8

CN

CPI

May

%oya

1.3

1.4

1.2

Thu,11-Jun

KR

Unemploymentrate

May

%,SA

2.7

2.8

2.8

Fri,12-Jun

IN

CPI

May

%oya

4.0

4.0

3.5

Duringtheweek

Sun,07-Jun

CN

FXreserves

May

US$bn

3405

3400

3411

09-15,Jun

CN

NewloancreationTSFflow

M2

May

May

May

RMBbn%oya

%oya

605

7.7

8.7

-

-

8.6

-10

7.8

8.6

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.andJ.P.Morganforecasts

3

SajjidZChinoy(91-22)6157-3386

sajjid.z.chinoy@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,MumbaiBranchAnushaMital(91-22)6157-4113

anusha.mital@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

08June2026

RegionalEconomicOutlookinSummary

2021NominalGDP,US$Total%ofper

billionregioncapita

RealGDP

%year-on-year

202420252026

Consumerprices

%year-on-year

202420252026

Japan

4,935n.a.40,114

-0.21.10.7

2.73.22.0

Australia

1,634n.a.64,327

1.02.02.0

3.22.84.6

NewZealand

247n.a.48,861

-0.30.21.9

2.92.83.7

EmergingAsia

26,963100.08,048

4.95.14.9

1.20.61.9

exChinaandIndia

6,17522.910,794

3.93.94.5

2.11.62.9

China

17,70665.712,572

4.95.04.7

0.20.01.0

HongKongSAR,China

3681.449,849

2.63.63.4

1.71.41.6

Taiwan,China

7772.933,071

5.38.89.8

2.21.72.0

Korea

1,8096.735,126

2.01.03.0

2.32.12.9

India

3,08211.42,250

7.17.76.5

4.92.15.0

Indonesia

1,1874.44,358

5.05.14.7

2.31.93.5

Malaysia

3731.411,476

5.15.24.6

1.81.41.9

Philippines

3931.53,576

5.74.44.0

3.21.66.8

Singapore

3971.579,601

5.35.04.3

2.40.92.1

Thailand

5061.97,237

2.92.42.1

0.4-0.12.4

Vietnam

3651.43,757

Currentaccountbalance

US$billion

202420252026

7.17.97.3

Currentaccount

%ofGDP

202420252026

3.63.35.3

Foreignreserves

US$billion

202420252026

Japan

n.a.n.a.n.a.

4.64.83.9

n.a.n.a.n.a.

Australia

n.a.n.a.n.a.

-2.2-2.7-2.7

n.a.n.a.n.a.

NewZealand

n.a.n.a.n.a.

-4.8-3.7-4.2

n.a.n.a.n.a.

EmergingAsia

734.71087.91195.5

2.53.53.8

n.a.n.a.n.a.

exChinaandIndia

385.9456.8600.5

5.46.18.3

n.a.n.a.n.a.

China

423.9747.9754.1

2.33.83.6

n.a.n.a.n.a.

HongKongSAR,China

52.554.747.3

12.912.810.5

421426428

Taiwan,China

112.7139.3135.2

14.115.113.6

578585592

Korea

99.0122.7300.8

5.36.615.2

409422426

India

-75.2-116.8-159.1

-2.0-3.0-3.9

n.a.n.a.n.a.

Indonesia

-8.7-10.2-15.7

-0.6-0.8-1.1

149145140

Malaysia

7.29.714.9

1.72.12.8

124127130

Philippines

-17.5-16.3-21.9

-3.8-3.3-4.4

959174

Singapore

98.5100.9128.0

17.216.719.9

n.a.n.a.n.a.

Thailand

11.622.82.3

2.23.90.4

217249270

Vietnam

30.533.19.7

Externaldebt

%ofGDP,endofperiod

202420252026

6.86.61.8

Short-termforeigndebt

US$billion,endofperiod

202420252026

838782

Governmentbalance

%ofGDP,endofperiod

202420252026

Japan

n.a.n.a.n.a.

n.a.n.a.n.a.

-6.1-6.7-6.9

Australia

n.a.n.a.n.a.

n.a.n.a.n.a.

0.0-0.4-0.6

NewZealand

n.a.n.a.n.a.

n.a.n.a.n.a.

-2.6-2.4-2.7

China

n.a.n.a.n.a.

n.a.n.a.n.a.

-3.0-4.0-4.0

HongKongSAR,China

n.a.n.a.n.a.

n.a.n.a.n.a.

-1.80.10.6

Taiwan,China

26.223.522.5

207213221

-0.6-1.0-1.6

Korea

35.637.939.4

146178178

-1.7-1.8-0.5

India

n.a.n.a.n.a.

n.a.n.a.n.a.

-8.3-7.9-7.7

Indonesia

27.425.323.6

434343

-2.7-2.9-3.0

Malaysia

50.647.344.0

119129139

-4.3-3.8-3.5

Philippines

28.530.633.6

212227

-5.7-4.8-6.0

Singapore

n.a.n.a.n.a.

n.a.n.a.n.a.

0.40.40.2

Thailand

37.034.132.1

867575

-4.0-4.7-4.5

Vietnam

46.147.148.1

n.a.n.a.n.a.

-3.6-3.8-4.0

Source:NationalstatisticsauthoritiesandJ.P.Morgan

4

SajjidZChinoy(91-22)6157-3386

sajjid.z.chinoy@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,MumbaiBranchAnushaMital(91-22)6157-4113

anusha.mital@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

GlobalDataWatch:Asia

08June2026

Keyeconomicstatistics

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

3Q26

4Q26

RealGDP,%-chover1quarter,saar

Japan

1.8

1.4

-2.5

0.8

2.1

0.2

1.0

0.8

Australia

1.0

3.9

1.5

3.5

1.1

1.6

1.5

1.9

NewZealand

4.5

-3.4

3.5

1.0

3.3

1.2

3.4

1.2

EmergingAsia

4.6

5.0

4.4

5.8

6.7

3.8

3.3

3.5

exChinaandIndia

2.5

5.7

4.9

6.7

5.9

2.3

2.9

3.0

China

4.9

4.2

3.7

5.2

6.7

4.0

3.2

3.2

HongKongSAR,China

4.6

3.3

3.8

4.3

12.2

3.0

2.8

2.8

Taiwan,China

3.7

16.3

6.7

28.7

6.9

2.2

3.6

3.6

Korea

-0.9

2.7

5.4

-0.6

6.9

1.0

2.0

2.0

India

7.2

8.5

7.5

7.5

8.0

5.1

5.0

6.2

Indonesia

4.9

5.5

5.3

5.7

5.7

3.7

3.3

3.0

Malaysia

5.3

6.1

7.6

6.2

1.4

5.0

4.5

4.0

Philippines

4.9

3.7

1.4

2.4

3.8

4.9

5.7

8.2

Singapore

2.5

7.3

7.8

5.2

3.9

3.0

2.0

2.0

Thailand

1.9

2.2

-1.1

7.6

2.7

-1.1

1.2

2.0

Vietnam

7.8

12.0

8.0

5.0

5.0

4.5

6.0

6.0

Consumerprices,%oya,average

EmergingAsia

1.9

0.7

0.4

0.9

1.4

1.9

2.2

2.0

exChinaandIndia

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.9

3.3

3.4

China

-0.1

0.0

-0.2

0.6

0.8

1.2

1.3

0.9

HongKongSAR,China

1.6

1.8

1.1

1.3

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.7

Taiwan,China

2.2

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

2.3

2.3

2.2

Korea

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.4

2.1

3.0

3.4

3.2

India

3.9

3.1

1.9

0.8

3.1

4.1

4.9

5.6

Indonesia

0.6

1.8

2.4

2.8

3.9

2.7

3.2

3.6

Malaysia

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.6

2.0

2.0

2.1

Philippines

2.2

1.4

1.4

1.7

2.8

7.6

8.2

8.7

Singapore

1.0

0.8

0.6

1.2

1.5

1.9

2.6

2.4

Thailand

1.1

-0.3

-0.7

-0.5

-0.5

2.8

3.6

3.9

Vietnam

3.1

3.6

3.4

3.5

4.7

5.9

5.8

5.6

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

3Q26

4Q26

Officialinterestrates,%p.a.,end-period

JapanPolrateIOER1

0.48

0.48

0.48

0.73

0.73

1.00

1.00

1.25

AustraliaCashrate

4.10

3.85

3.60

3.60

4.10

4.35

4.35

4.35

NewZealandCashrate

3.75

3.25

3.00

2.25

2.25

2.25

2.75

3.00

China7-dayReversereporate

1.50

1.40

1.40

1.40

1.40

1.40

1.30

1.30

Taiwan,ChinaOfficialdiscountrate

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

KoreaBaserate

2.75

2.50

2.50

2.50

2.50

2.50

2.75

3.00

IndiaReporate

6.25

5.50

5.50

5.25

5.25

5.25

5.25

5.25

IndonesiaBIRRrate

5.75

5.50

4.75

4.75

4.75

5.00

5.00

5.00

MalaysiaOvernightpolicyrate

3.00

3.00

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

PhilippinesReversereporate

5.75

5.25

5.00

4.50

4.25

5.00

5.50

6.00

Thailand1-dayreporate

2.00

1.75

1.50

1.25

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

VietnamRefinancingrate

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

1.BoJsetsthepolicyrateonIOER(O/N)andtargets10-yearJGByieldsaspolicyguidance.Source:NationalstatisticsauthoritiesandJ.P.Morgan.

19

TomRyan(61-2)9003-7632

thomas.f.ryan@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesAustraliaLimited

Australia:Datacenterboominperspective

•TheglobalwaveofAIinfrastructurespendinghasdrivenasurgeinAustraliandatacenterinvestment

•Technologysectorcapexisrisingsharply,whilebuild-ingapprovalssignalasteepconstructionupswing

•However,thescaleremainssmallinmacrotermsandimportleakagewillmoderatetheGDPimpact

UptooneineveryfivedollarsapprovedforAustraliannon-residentialbuildingconstructionisnowgoingtowardsbuild-ingdatacenters1(Figure1).Thepick-upreflectsaglobal

surgeinAI-relatedinfrastructureinvestment,withthe

AustralianEnergyMarketOperator(AEMO)forecasting

Australiandatacenterelectricitydemand(aproxyforoutput)totripleby2030.

WehavewrittenseparatelyabouttheimplicationsofAIfortheeconomy,throughinvestmentinsoftware/datacenters,

productivityeffects,andcapitalreturns.Here,weprovideanupdateonthedatacenterinvestmentlifecyclefromconstruc-tiontotheoperationalphase,andprovideestimatesforits

impactonAustralia’sNationalAccounts.

Figure1:Australiandatacenterapprovals

20122014201620182020202220242026

Source:ABS,J.P.Morgan

Valueof'Commercialn.e.c'approvalsProportionoftotal(rhs)

AUDbn,4qsum%ofprivatenon-resibuildingapprovalvalue

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Inthenearterm,thedatacenterbuild-outphaseissettoboostnon-residentialconstructionactivity,butthescaleremains

smallrelativetotheeconomyandisunlikelytobeamaterialdriverofGDPgrowth.Growthinbusinesscapitalexpenditureisalsolikelytobesomewhatoffsetbycapitalimports,givenAustralia’slimitedroleinproducingdatacenterhardware.

Onceoperational,upstreamdemandshouldbemostvisiblein

1.IntheABS'functionalclassificationofbuildings,datacentersarecapturedundertheCommercialnotelsewhereclassified(n.e.c)

classification.Thissegmentalsoincludesothercommercialbuildingtypessuchascarwashes,carrepairshops,funeralhomes,mail

sorting,marinabuildings,meteringstations,petboardingfacilitiesandpetrolstations.

GlobalEconomicResearch

03June2026

telecommunicationsandbusinessservices,butagain,importleakageremainsmeaningful.

Spendingbig

Growthintechinfrastructureisalreadyvisibleinamaterialpick-upinplantandequipment(P&E)investmentbythe

technologysector(Figure2).TechnologysectorP&EcapextotalledA$7.3bnthrough2025,orabout0.2%ofGDP.1Q26

datapointtoanothersharpincreaseinactualspendingona

rollingfour-quarterbasis,andfirms'forward-lookingguid-

ancefortheremainderofthecurrentfiscalyearsignalsfur-

therupside.Althoughfirms’expectationsforFY27capital

expendituresitbelowcurrentlevels,firmsovershottheir

planned2025spendingandhavenotreviseddowntheirFY26

intentions,suggestingfurtherupgradesareplausible.Note

thatthesefiguresdonotincludedirecttechspendingbynon-techbusinesses,

e.g.software

investment,currentlycontribut-ingaround+0.1%-ptstoGDP.

Figure2:TechnologyP&Ecapitalexpenditure

AUDbn,sa

201220142016201820202022202420262028

Source:ABS,J.P.Morgan

Actualexpenditure(4qrolling)FY26expectations

FY27expectations

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Eventakenatfacevalue,thistrajectory,whileanotablestepupfromitshistoricalaverage,remainssmallasashareoftheoveralleconomy.ComparedtoAustralia’searly2010smin-ingcapexboom,whichpeakedatnearly7%ofGDP,thetechdynamicappearsmuchsmallersofar.Furthermore,while

thereislikelystillupsidefortechnologycapitalexpenditure,ameaningfulshareofdatacenterfit-outreliesonimportedcapitalequipment.CapitalimportsfortechequipmenthavealsobeensurgingandwillmechanicallyoffsetsomeofthegrosscapeximpulsetoGDP.

Layingthefoundations

FromaGDPperspective,thelargerdomesticvalueadded

impulsecomesviaconstructionactivity,whichcanbetrackedfromapprovals(Figure1)throughcommencementsandworkdone(Figure3).Oncurrentpipelinemetrics,theconstructionupswingissteep,butthescalelooksmodestrelativetoaggre-gateoutput.Thevalueofworkunderconstructionhasmore

thandoubledthrough2025toA$14.1bn,whiletheportionstilltobecompletedisA$8.9bn—amodest0.3%ofGDP.

20

TomRyan(61-2)9003-7632

thomas.f.ryan@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesAustraliaLimited

GlobalEconomicResearch

Australia:Datacenterboomin

perspective

03June2026

ThisworkwillbedistributedintomeasuredGDPovermulti-plequartersasitisexecuted,implyingasmallerannual

growthcontribution.Moreover,thelevelofapprovedbutnotyetcommencedworkdoesnotcurrentlypointtoastep-

changehigherfromhere.Amorematerialgrowthimpulsewouldrequirearenewedlegupinapprovals.

Figure3:Datacenterconstructionactivity

AUDbn

15Underconstruction

12Worktobedone

9Workdone(4qrolling)

6Approved,notyetcommenced

3

0

20122014201620182020202220242026

Source:ABS,J.P.Morgan

Upandrunning

Onceoperational,datacenterscontributetogrowththrough

GrossValueAdded(GVA)intheproductionmeasureofGDP.TherelevantABScategory(OtherInformation/MediaServic-es)isbroadandbundlestogetherpublishing,motionpicture

services,TV/radiobroadcasting,librariesanddatacenterser-vices.Thegroupasawholecurrentlyaccountsfor1.4%of

GDP.TakingAEMO'sestimateofatriplinginenergyuseby2030asaproxyforoutputgrowthyieldsacontributionof

+0.3%-ptstoGDPperyearasaplausibleupperbound.In

practice,therealisedimpulseislikelytobemateriallysmall-er.Datacenteroperationsrepresentonlyaportionofthe

broadercategory,andoutputisunlikelytoscaleone-for-onewithcapitalorenergyuse.

UsingtheABSinput-outputtables,relatedupstreaminputstodatacenteroperationscanalsobecomputedbyindustry2.Thelatestavailabledatafor2023-24indicateaservice-heavy

supplychainwithasignificantimportcomponent(Figure4).Telecommunicationsisthedominantupstreaminputat

roughly$25per$100ofoutput,withabout$19sourced

domesticallyand$6imported.Professionalandscientific

servicesfollowat$13,withasecondtierincluding

construction,electronics,softwareengineering,realestate,

administrativeservices,andfinance.GiventhattheABS

input-outputdataarereleasedwithasignificantlag,theinputmixislikelytoevolveasdatacentersbecomealargershareofthesegment.

2.Intheinput-outputtables,datacenteroperationsfallundertheIOIGindustryclassification5701:Internetserviceproviders,

Internetpublishingandbroadcasting,WebsearchportalsandDataprocessing.

Figure4:Top10upstreamdatacenteroperationinputs

Inputcost($)per$100ofoutput%totalintermediateinput,cumulative

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

75

50

25

0

Source:ABS,J.P.Morgan

%total(rhs)

Domestic

Imported

Thesumofupstreamdomesticintermediateinputsyieldsthegrossdomesticoutputmultiplier,ameasureofindustrial

interconnectedness3.Fordatacenters,thismultiplierisesti-matedat0.58x(Figure5),onlymarginallyabovethe

all-industryaverage(0.56x),andbelowconstruction(0.80x)andelectricitygeneration(0.78x).

Figure5:Outputmultipliersandlabourintensitybyindustry

Labourintensity($employeecostper$1ofindustrygrossoutput)

00.20.40.60.81

DomesticoutputmultiplierSource:ABS,J.P.Morgan($intermediateinputuseper$1ofindustrygrossoutput)

Prof.services

Foodservices

Roadtransport

Datacenters

Airtransport

Telecomm.

Health

Softwaredesign

Retailtrade

Wholesaletrade

Education

Socialassistance

Finance

Ironoremining

Fruitandveg

prod.

Non-resiconstr.

Resiconstr.

Petroluem

mfg.

Accomm.Coalmining

Agri.

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

Gas

extraction

Thelabourintensity4ofdatacenteroperationsisalsomodest,sittingbelowprofessionalservicesandsoftwaredesign,yet

abovemorecapital-intensiveindustriessuchasminingand

manufacturing.Thisisconsistentwithdatacentersgeneratingmoderate,notoutsized,demandspilloverstootherindustriesandtothelabourmarket.Theoperationalstageshould

thereforesupporttelecomsandbusinessservices,butimportleakageisagainlikelytotemperthenetuplifttoGDP.

3.Input-outputmultiplieranalysisassumesfixedtechnical

coefficients,nosupplyconstraints,constantrelativeprices,andnoinputsubstitution.Largedemandshocksmaytriggerprice

adjustments,capacitylimits,andshiftingimportsharesthataltertherealisedimpact.

4.Measuresoflabourintensityaresensitivetohowlabourincomeisrecognised.Industriesthatrelyheavilyonsolecontractors(e.g.

construction)canappearlesslabourintensive,ascontractor

paymentsarerecordedasbusinessrevenueratherthanwages.

40

AyakoFujita(81-3)6736-1172

ayako.fujita@

JPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.TakuhoMorimoto(81-3)6736-6682

takuho.morimoto@

Japan

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