2026自动驾驶落地进程预测报告：对交通规划的影响 Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions Implications for Transport Planning

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AutonomousVehicleImplementationPredictions

ImplicationsforTransportPlanning

19April2026

By

ToddLitman

VictoriaTransportPolicyInstitute

Waymo’sself-drivingtaxisareawell-publicizedexampleofautonomousvehicles.

Summary

Thisreportexplorestheimpactsofautonomous(alsocalledself-driving,driverlessorrobotic)

vehicles,andtheirimplicationsfortransportationplanning.Itinvestigateshowquicklysuch

vehiclesarelikelytodevelopandbedeployedbasedonexperiencewithpreviousvehicle

technologies;theirlikelybenefitsandcosts;howtheywillaffecttravelactivity;andtheirimpactsonroad,parkingandpublictransitplanning.ThisanalysisindicatesthatLevel5autonomous

vehicles,abletooperatewithoutadriver,maybecommerciallyavailableandlegaltouseinsomejurisdictionsbythelate2020s,butwillinitiallyhavehighcostsandlimitedperformance.Somebenefits,suchasindependentmobilityforaffluentnon-drivers,maybegininthe2030sbutmostimpacts,includingreducedtrafficandparkingcongestion,independentmobilityforlow-incomepeople(andthereforereducedneedforpublictransit),increasedsafety,energy

conservationandpollutionreductions,willonlybesignificantwhenautonomousvehiclesbecomecommonandaffordable,probablyinthe2040sto2060s,andsomebenefitsmayrequirededicatedautonomousvehiclelanes,whichraisessocialequityconcerns.

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TableofContents

ExecutiveSummary 3

Introduction 7

AutonomousVehicleOperationalModels 8

BenefitsandCosts 9

ReducedDriverStress,ImprovedProductivityandMobility 9

OwnershipandOperatingCosts 10

TrafficSafetyandPublicHealth 13

ExternalCost 15

SocialEquityImpacts 16

BenefitandCostSummary 18

TravelImpacts 20

DevelopmentandDeploymentPredictions 25

ExperiencewithPreviousVehicleTechnologyDeployment 28

DeploymentPredictions 29

CommunityObjectives 32

PlanningImplications 33

RoadwayDesign 33

TransportationPricing 33

CurbManagement 33

ParkingPlanning 33

PublicTransitNeeds 34

OtherTrendsAffectingTravelDemands 34

PotentialConflictsandSolutions 38

Conclusions 39

References 42

Drivinginmixed

trafficinvolves

numerous

interactionswith

diversepedestrians,animals,bicyclistsandvehicles,andsoismorecomplex

thanflyinganairplane.(KeithShaw)

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ExecutiveSummary

Manydecision-makersandpractitionerswonderhowautonomous(alsocalledself-drivingorrobotic)vehicles(AVs)willaffectfuturetravel,andthereforetheneedforroads,parking

facilitiesandpublictransitservices,andwhatpublicpoliciescanminimizetheproblemsandmaximizethebenefitsofthesenewtechnologies.Thisreportexplorestheseissues.

Optimistspredictthatby2030,autonomousvehicleswillbesufficientlyreliable,affordableandcommontodisplacemosthumandriving,providinghugesavingsandbenefits.However,therearegoodreasonstobeskeptical.Mostoptimisticpredictionsaremadebypeoplewithfinancialinterestsintheindustry,basedonexperiencewithdisruptivetechnologiessuchasdigital

cameras,smartphonesandpersonalcomputers.Theytendtoignoresignificantobstaclestoautonomousvehicledevelopmentandexaggeratefuturebenefits.

Thereisconsiderableuncertaintyconcerningautonomousvehicledevelopment,benefitsandcosts,travelimpacts,andconsumerdemand.Considerableprogressisneededbefore

autonomousvehiclescanoperatereliablyinmixedurbantraffic,heavyrainandsnow,unpavedandunmappedroads,andwherewirelessaccessisunreliable.Yearsoftestingandregulatoryapprovalwillberequiredbeforetheyarecommerciallyavailableinmostjurisdictions.Thefirstcommerciallyavailableautonomousvehiclesarelikelytobeexpensiveandlimitedin

performance.Theywillintroducenewcostsandrisks.Theseconstraintswilllimitsales.Manymotoristswillbereluctanttopaythousandsofextradollarsforvehiclesthatwillsometimesbeunabletoreachadestinationduetoinclementweatherorunmappedroads.

ExhibitES-1illustratesautonomousvehicleusercosts.Theyarelikelytobemoreexpensive

thanhuman-drivenprivatevehiclesandpublictransit,butcheaperthanridehailingandhuman-driventaxis.SharedautonomousvehicleswillbecheaperbutlessconvenientandcomfortablethanprivateAVs,somanyhouseholds,particularlyinsuburbsandruralareas,willownAVs.

DollarsPerMile

CostComparison

AutonomousVehicles(AV)HumanDriven(HD)

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50

$1.00

$0.50

$0.00

SharedAVPublictransit

HOcar

variable

costs

HDcar

average

costs

AV

average

costs

AVvariablecosts

ExhibitES-1

Ride-hailing

HO

Taxi

AV

Taxi

Autonomousvehicles(AVs)arelikelytocostmorethanhuman-operated(HO)privatevehiclesandpublictransit,butlessthanhuman-driventaxisandridehailingservices.

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Autonomousvehicleswillhavevariousbenefitsandcosts,includingmanyexternalcosts(costsimposedonotherpeople).AlloftheseimpactsshouldbeconsideredwhenplanningforAVs.

ExhibitES-2AutonomousVehiclePotentialBenefitsandCosts

Benefits

Costs/Problems

Internal(userImpacts)

Reduceddrivers’stressandincreased

productivity.Motoristscanrest,playandworkwhiletravelling.

Mobilityfornon-drivers.Moreindependent

mobilityfornon-driverscanreducemotorists’chauffeuringburdensandtransitsubsidyneeds.

Reducedpaiddrivercosts.Reducescostsfortaxisservicesandcommercialtransportdrivers.

Increasedvehiclecosts.Requiresadditionalvehicleequipment,servicesandfees.

Additionaluserrisks.Additionalcrashescausedbysystemfailures,platooning,highertrafficspeeds,additionalrisk-taking,andincreasedtotalvehicletravel.

Reducedsecurityandprivacy.Maybevulnerableto

informationabuse(hacking),andfeaturessuchaslocationtrackinganddatasharingmayreduceprivacy.

External(Impactsonothers)

Increasedsafety.Mayreducecrashrisksandinsurancecosts.Mayreducehigh-riskdriving.

Increasedroadcapacityandcostsavings.Moreefficientvehicletrafficmayreducecongestionandroadwaycosts.

Reducedparkingcosts.Reducesdemandforparkingatdestinations.

Reducedenergyconsumptionandpollution.Mayincreasefuelefficiencyandreduceemissions.

Supportsvehiclesharing.Couldfacilitate

carsharingandridesharing,reducingtotalvehicleownershipandtravel,andassociatedcosts.

Increasedinfrastructurecosts.Mayrequirehigherroadwaydesignandmaintenancestandards.

Additionalrisks.Mayincreaseriskstootherroadusersandmaybeusedforcriminalactivities.

Increasedtrafficproblems.Increasedvehicletravelmayincreasecongestion,pollutionandsprawl-relatedcosts.

Socialequityconcerns.Mayreduceaffordablemobilityoptionsincludingwalking,bicyclingandtransitservices.

Reducedemployment.Jobsfordriversmaydecline.

Reducedsupportforothersolutions.Optimisticpredictionsofautonomousdrivingmaydiscourageothertransport

improvementsandmanagementstrategies.

Autonomousvehiclescanprovidevariousbenefitsandcosts,includingexternalimpactsonotherpeople.

Vehicleslastlonger,costmore,imposelargerexternalcosts,andaremorehighlyregulatedthanmostotherconsumergoods.Asaresult,vehicletechnologiestakelongertopenetratemarketsthanmostothersectors.Itwillprobablytakedecadesforautonomousvehiclestodominatenewvehiclepurchasesandfleets,andsomemotoristsmayresistusingthem.

Optimistically,autonomousvehicleswillbesafeandreliableby2025,andbecome

commerciallyavailableinmanyareasby2030.Iftheyfollowthepatternofpreviousvehicletechnologies,duringthe2030sandprobablythe2040s,theywillbeexpensiveandlimitedinperformance,sometimesunabletoreachdestinationsorrequiringhumaninterventionwhentheyencounterunexpectedsituations.Customerswillincludeaffluenthigh-annual-mileagemotoristsandbusinesses.Fortheforeseeablefuturemostmoderate-andlow-income

householdswillcontinuetousehuman-operatedvehicles.

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Sharedautonomousvehicles(self-drivingtaxis)andrides(micro-transitservices)maybecomewidelyavailablebythe2030s.Sharedvehicleshavemoderateoperatingcosts,andoffer

moderateconvenienceandcomfort.Theyshouldbecheaperthancurrenttaxiandridehailingservices,butofferlowerqualityservicesincenodriverwillbeavailabletoassistpassengers,

providesecurityorcleanvehicles.Vehicledispatchingislikelytobeslowandunpredictable,

particularlyinsuburbanandruralareas.Sharedrideswillhavethelowestcostsbuttheleast

convenienceandcomfort.Itispossiblethatlevel5autonomy(vehiclesabletooperatewithoutadriveunderallnormalconditions)willbeinfeasiblefordecades.Becauseoftheirpredictableroutesandhighlaborcosts,autonomousoperationismostappropriateforlong-haulbusesandfreighttrucks,soself-drivingbusesandtrucksmaybecomecommoninthe2030sand2040s.

Thefigurebelowillustratesthesemarketpenetrationandbenefitsprojections.Thisindicatesthatitwillprobablybe2045beforehalfofnewvehiclesareautonomous,2060beforehalfofthevehiclefleetisautonomous,andpossiblylongerduetotechnicalchallengesorconsumerpreferences.Level4autonomy(abletooperateautonomouslyunderlimitedconditions,suchasongrade-separatedhighways)canreducedriverstressandincreaseproductivity,butmostbenefitsrequireLevel5autonomy(abletooperateautonomouslyunderallnormalconditions)sovehiclescantransportnon-driversandtravelemptytopickupordropoffpassengers.

EESAVSFTBP

xhibit-2utonomousehicleales,leet,ravelandenefitrojections

Thisanalysissuggeststhatitwillbeatleast2045beforehalfofnewvehiclesareautonomous,and2060beforehalfofthevehiclefleetisautonomous.Significantlyfasterdeploymentwillrequirescrappingmanyotherwisefunctionalvehiclesthatlackself-drivingability.Somebenefits,suchasreduceddriverstressandindependentmobilityforaffluentnon-drivers,canoccurwhenautonomousvehiclesarerelativelycostly

andrare.However,mostbenefits,suchasindependentmobilityformoderate-incomenon-driversand

affordabletaxiandmicro-transitservices,canonlybesignificantiftheybecomecommonandaffordable,andsomebenefits,suchasreducedcongestion,willrequirededicatedlanestoallowplatooning.

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Manypredictionsassumethatmostautonomousvehicleswillbeelectric,whichhavelowfuelcostsbutrequirecostlybatteriesandcurrentlypaynofueltaxes.Incorporatingbattery

replacementcostsandefficientroaduserfeesincreaseselectricvehicleoperatingcoststobesimilartofossilfuelvehicles.

Animportantplanningissueiswhetherautonomousvehicleswillincreaseorreducetotal

vehicletravelandassociatedtrafficproblems.Itcouldgoeitherway.Byincreasingnon-drivers’vehicletravel,increasingtravelconvenienceandcomfort,reducingvehicleoperatingcosts,

generatingemptytravel,andencouraginglonger-distancecommutesandmoresprawled

development,theycanincreasevehicletravel.Thisadditionalvehicletravelprovidesmarginalconsumerbenefits,andsincevehicletravelimposessignificantexternalcosts,muchofthe

additionalvehicletravelislikelytobeeconomicallyinefficient:itsuserbenefitswillbelessthantotalincrementalcosts.Alternatively,autonomousoperationmayfacilitatevehiclesharing,

allowinghouseholdstoreducevehicleownershipandvehicletravel.ThissuggeststhatAVswillincreasevehicletravelinsuburbanandruralareas,andreduceitinurbanareas.Theirnet

impactswilldependontransportandlandusedevelopmentpolicies.Withcurrentpolicies,

vehicletravelandsprawlarelikelytoincrease10-30%.Moreefficientpricing,androadway

managementwhichfavorssharedvehicles,canreducevehicletravelandassociatedproblems.

Anothercriticalissueisthedegreethatpotentialbenefitscanbeachievedwhenonlyaportionofvehicletravelisautonomous.Somebenefits,suchasimprovedmobilityforaffluentnon-

drivers,mayoccurwhenautonomousvehiclesareuncommonandcostly,butmanypotentialbenefits,suchasreducedcongestionandemissionrates,reducedtrafficsignalsandlane

widths,requirethatvehiclesoperateautonomouslyindedicatedlanes.

Autonomousvehicleimplementationisjustoneofmanytrendslikelytoaffectfuturetransportdemandsandimpacts,andnotnecessarilythemostimportant.Theirultimateimpactsdependonhowautonomousvehiclesinteractwithothertrends,suchasshiftsfromprivatetosharedvehicles.Autonomousvehicleswillprobablynotbea“gamechanger”duringmostofourlives,andwillonlycausea“paradigmshift”ifthistechnologycauseslargeshiftsfromprivateto

sharedvehiclesandcreatesmoremulti-modalcommunities.

Transportationprofessionalshaveimportantrolestoplayinautonomousvehicledevelopmentanddeployment.Wemustanticipatehownewtechnologiesandservicesarelikelytoaffect

road,parkingandpublictransitneeds,andhowtorespondtominimizeproblemsandmaximizetotalbenefits.Wecanhelpdefinethestandardstheymustmeettolegallyoperateonpublic

roads.Weshouldevaluatetheirbenefitsandcostsanddeveloppoliciestomaximizenetbenefitsandensurethattheirdeploymentsupportsstrategiccommunitygoals.

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Introduction

Thefutureisultimatelyunknowablebutplanningrequirespredictingimpendingconditionsandneeds.Manydecision-makersandpractitioners(planners,engineersandanalysts)wonderhowautonomous(alsocalledself-drivingorrobotic)vehicleswillaffectfuturetraveldemands,andthereforetheneedforroads,parkingfacilitiesandpublictransitservices,andwhatpublic

policiescanminimizetheirrisksandmaximizetheirbenefits(APA2016;BerradaandLeurent

2017;GrushandNiles2018;Guerra2015;KockelmanandBoyles2018;Larco2022;Milakis,vanAremandvanWee2017;NACTO2026;Shaheen,TotteandStocker2018;Sperling2017).

Thereisconsiderableuncertaintyabouttheseissues.Optimistspredict,basedonexperience

withprevioustechnologicalinnovationssuchasdigitalcameras,smartphonesandpersonal

computers,thatautonomousvehicleswillsoonbesufficientlyreliableandaffordabletoreplacemosthumandriving,providinghugesavingsandbenefits(JohnstonandWalker2017;Keeney

2017;Kok,etal.2017).However,therearegoodreasonstobeskepticalofsuchclaims.

Optimisticpredictionsoftenoverlooksignificantobstaclesandcosts.Manytechnicalproblemsmustbesolvedbeforeautonomousvehiclescanoperatereliablyinallnormalconditions

(Chafkin2022;Leonard,MindellandStayton2020;Norton2021).Theywillrequireyearsof

testingandregulatoryapprovaltoprogressontheTechnologyReadinessLevel(TRL)scale,fromanideatofullcommercialavailability(McLeod2021),sotheycanbecomeaffordableand

attractivetoconsumers.Motorvehiclesarecostly,durable,andhighlyregulated,sonew

vehicletechnologiesgenerallyrequiredecadestopenetratefleets.Autonomousdrivingcan

createnewproblems;acamera,telephoneorcomputerfailuremaybefrustratingbutis

seldomfatal,butmotorvehiclesystemfailurescanbefrustratinganddeadlytooccupantsandotherroadusers.Asaresult,autonomousvehicleswillprobablytakelongertodevelopand

providesmallernetbenefitsthanoptimistspredict.

Thishasimportantpolicyimplications(PapaandFerreira2018;Speck2017).Vehiclesrelyon

publicinfrastructureandcanimposelargeexternalcosts,andsorequiremoreplanningand

regulationthanmostothertechnologies.Forexample,manypredictedautonomousvehicle

benefits,includingcongestionandpollutionreductions,requirededicatedlanestoallow

platooning(numerousvehiclesdrivingclosetogetheratrelativelyhighspeeds),and

autonomousvehiclescanbeprogramedtoprioritizeuserbenefitssuchasmaximizingtravel

speedandoccupantcomfort,orcommunitybenefitssuchasminimizingdelayandriskstootherroadusers.Policymakersmustdecidewhethertobuildspecialautonomousvehiclelanes,howtopricethem,andhowtoregulatetheiroperationinmaximizetotalbenefits(Zipper2021).

Thisreportexplorestheseissues.Itinvestigates,basedonexperiencewithpreviousvehicletechnologies,howquicklyself-drivingvehiclesarelikelytobedevelopedanddeployed,

criticallyevaluatestheirbenefitsandcosts,anddiscussestheirlikelytravelimpactsandtheirimplicationsforplanningdecisionssuchasoptimalroad,parkingandpublictransitsupply.

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AutonomousVehicleOperationalModels

Exhibit1describessixdefinedlevelsofdrivingautomation.ManypredictedbenefitsrequireLevel5,whichallowsvehiclestotransportnon-driversandgoodsinallnormalconditions.

Exhibit1AutomatedDrivingLevels(SAEJ3016)

TheSocietyof

Automotive

Engineers(SAE)

definessixvehicle

automationlevels.

Manypredicted

benefitsrequirelevel5,whichallows

vehiclestooperate

autonomouslyand

transportnon-driversandgoodsinall

normalconditions.

Exhibit2comparesfourvehicleoperatingmodels.

Exhibit2OperatingModelsCompared

PrivateHuman-DrivenVehicles

PrivateAutonomousVehicles

SharedAutonomousVehicles

Shared

AutonomousRides

Motoristsownorlease,anddrive,avehicle.

Householdsownorleaseself-drivingvehicles.

Self-drivingtaxisofferserveindividuals.

Micro-transitservesmultiplepassengers.

Advantages

Lowcosts.Always

available.Userscanleavegearinvehicles.Prideofownership.

Highconvenience.Alwaysavailable.Userscanleavegearinvehicles.Prideofownership.

Userscanchoosevehiclesthatbestmeettheir

needs.Doortodoorservice.

Lowesttotalcosts.Minimizes

congestion,riskandpollutionemissions.

Disadvantages

Requiresdrivingability,andassociatedstress.

Highcosts.Userscannot

choosedifferentvehiclesfordifferentuses.Likelytoincreasevehicletravelandassociatedcosts.

Usersmustwaitfor

vehicles.Limitedservices(nodrivertohelp

passengerscarryluggageorensuresafety.

Leastspeed,

convenienceand

comfort,particularlyinsprawledareas.

Appropriateusers

Lower-andmoderate-incomesuburbanandruralresidents.

Affluentsuburbanandruralresidents.

Lower-annual-mileageusers.

Lower-incomeurbanresidents.

Autonomousvehiclescanbeprivateorshared.Eachmodelhasadvantagesanddisadvantages.

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BenefitsandCosts

Thissectiondescribesautonomousvehiclebenefitsandcosts.

ReducedDriverStress,ImprovedProductivityandMobility

Autonomousvehiclescanreducedrivers’stressandtedium,andincreasetheirproductivity.

Theycanbemobileofficesandbedrooms,asillustratedbelow,allowingpassengerstorestorworkwhiletravelling(WSJ2017).Thisreducestraveltimeunitcosts(costperhour).However,forsafetysakeoccupantsshouldwearseatbelts,restrictinguseofin-vehiclebeds,andlikeanyconfinedspace,vehicleinteriorsarelikelytobecomeclutteredanddirty(Broussard2018).

Exhibit3ProductivityandRelaxationWhileTravelling

Autonomousvehiclescanbemobileofficesandbedrooms,allowingtravelerstoworkandrest.

Self-drivingvehiclescanintroducenewstressesanddiscomforts.Travelersmayexperience

“accessanxiety”ifvehiclesaresometimesunabletoreachdesireddestinations,forexample,

duetoheavyrainorsnow,orifanarealacksthedetailedmapsrequiredforautonomous

operation(Grush2016).Self-drivingtaxiandmicro-transitserviceswillbecheaperthanhuman-operatedtaxisbutofferlowerservicequalitysincetherewillbenodriverstohelpcarry

packagesorensurepassengersafety.Tominimizecleaningandvandalismcostsmostsurfacesmaystainlesssteelandplastic,andsecuritycameraswillmonitorpassengers,yettheymaystillencounterpreviousoccupants’garbage,stainsandodors(Broussard2018).Shared

autonomousrides(micro-transit)requirepassengerstosharespacewithstrangers,andeachadditionalpick-upordrop-offcanimposedelays,reducingspeedsandreliability.

Autonomousvehiclescanprovideindependentmobilityforpeoplewhocannotorshouldnot

drive.Thisdirectlybenefitsthosetravelers,andbyimprovingtheiraccesstoeconomic

opportunitiescanincreasetheirproductivity,andreducechauffeuringburdensontheirfamilymembersandfriends.Ontheotherhand,optimisticpredictionsofautonomousvehiclebenefitsmaycausesomecommunitiestoreducesupportforpublictransitserviceswhichmayreduce

mobilityoptionsfornon-drivers(Creger,EspinoandSanchez2019).Dedicatinghighwaylanesforautonomousvehicleplatooningmayreducecapacityforhuman-operatedtraffic,harminghuman-operatedvehicleoccupants.

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OwnershipandOperatingCosts

Autonomousvehiclesrequirevariousequipmentandservicessummarizedintheboxbelow.

Sincefailurescouldbedeadly,autonomousvehiclesneedrobustandredundantcomponents,installedandmaintainedbyspecialists,increasingmaintenancecosts.Currently,optional

vehicleaccessoriessuchasremotestarting,activelaneassistandsafetycameras,typicallycostseveralthousanddollars,andsubscriptionstonavigationandsecurityservices,suchasOnStarandTomTom,costhundredsofdollarsperyear.UpgradingtoTesla’sFullSelf-Drive(FSD)

services,whichprovidelimitedautonomousoperation,cost$15,000,andin2022ownerssuedTeslaforfalseadvertisingofitsavailabilityandbenefits(Mayorquin2022).Vehicleownerswillprobablyneedtosubscribetofrequentsoftwareupdateandnavigationmappingservices.

Advanceddriverassistancesystemsensors(cameras,radarandultrasound)approximatelydoubleminorcollisiondamagecosts,typicallyadding$3,000toarepairbill(AAA2018),

suggestingthatautonomousvehicleswillincreasevehiclerepaircosts.

Exhibit4AutonomousVehicleEquipmentandServiceRequirements

AllAutonomousVehicles

SharedAutonomousVehicles

•

Sensors(optical,infrared,radar,laser,etc.).

•

Dispatchingandfleetmanagement.

•

Automatedcontrols(steering,braking,signals,etc.)

•

Businessadministrationandinsurance.

•

Software,serversandpowersupplies.

•

Businessprofits.

•

Datanetworkstoaccessspecialmaps,software

•

Security.

upgrades,plusvehicle-to-vehicleconnections.

•

Frequentcleaningandrepairs.

•

Softwareandnavigationmapupdatesubscriptions.

•

Delaysandemptyvehicle-milesforpassenger

•

Criticalcomponentmaintenance,repairandtesting.

loading.

Autonomousvehicles,particularlythosethatareshared,willincuradditionalcosts.

Someoptimistspredictthatelectricautonomousvehiclewillcostslessthan5¢permileto

operate,butthisisprobablyanunderestimate.Vehiclebatteriesmustbereplacedaboutevery100,000miles,whichcurrentlycosts$3,000-15,000,or3-10¢pervehicle-mile.Thismaydeclinewithproductioninnovations,butprobablynotmuchsincemostmotoristschooselarger,moresophisticatedbatteriestomaximizeperformance.Electricvehiclescurrentlypaynofueltaxes;cost-recoveryroad-userfeeswouldadd5-10¢pervehicle-mile.Incorporatingthesefactors

increaseselectricvehicleoperatingcoststo10-25¢permile,similartofossilfuelvehicles.

WhatareEfficientRoadUserFees?

Efficientroaduserfeesrecoverroadwaycosts,pluscongestion,crashandpollutiondamages.

Governmentroadwayexpenditurestotaledabout$250billionin2016,whichaveragesabout8¢permile(FHWA2018);optimalfeesaresomewhatlowerfeesforautomobilesandhigherforheavyvehicleswhichimposegreaterroadwaycosts.Underurban-peakconditions,decongestedfeesof5-25¢permileare

typicallyrequiredtointernalizecongestioncostsandreducetrafficvolumestoroadwaycapacity.

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Experiencewithpreviousvehicleinnovations,suchasautomatictransmissionsandairbags,

suggeststhatautonomousdrivingcapabilitywillinitiallybeavailableonlyonhigherpriced

modelsandwilltakedecadestobecomestandardonlower-pricedmodels.Someadvocates

arguethatinsuranceandfuelsavingswilloffsetthesecosts(Intellias2018)butthatseems

unlikely.Forexample,ifautonomousdrivingreducescollisioninsurancecostsbyhalf,the$300-500annualsavingsisjust10-20%ofestimatedadditionalcosts.Fuelcostsavingsarealsolikelytobesmallornegativeduetoadditionalequipment,largervehiclestoserveasmobileoffices,andinducedvehicletravel.

Asaresultautonomousdrivingcapabilitywillprobablyaddseveralthousanddollarstonew

vehiclepurchaseprices,plushundredsofdollarsinadditionalannualmaintenance,repair,

softwareandmappingsubscriptioncosts.Thiswilladdafewthousanddollarsinannualized

expenses,atleastforthefirstfewdecadesoftheircommercialavailability,until