2026欧洲化工领先市场研究报告：可持续化工优先市场排序

Leadmarketsinchemicals

Prioritisationofleadmarketsforsustainablechemicals

Spring2026

AgoraIndustry

SystemiqLtd10-12RussellSquareHouse,London,WC1B5EH,UNITEDKINGDOM

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SystemiqLeadmarketsinchemicals1

Preface

TheEuropeanchemicalindustryisfacingaperiodofprofoundstructuralpressure.Intensifying

internationalcompetition,risinggeopoliticalvolatility,andgrowingtradetensionsarereshapingglobalproductiondynamics,whiletheimperativetoaddressclimatechangeaddsfurtherurgencyfor

transformation.YetthesectorremainsfoundationaltoEurope’sindustrialbase,underpinning

economicprosperity,high-qualityemployment,andstrategicresilience.Adeclineindomestic

productionwouldnoteliminatedemand,butratherriskshiftingproductionandassociatedemissionsabroad.Atthesametime,Europe’sdependenceonfossil-basedfeedstockspresentsastructural

vulnerabilityforaresource-constrainedcontinent.

Thismomentthereforerepresentsbothachallengeandanopportunity.Europeiswellpositionedtoleadinthetransitiontowardssustainablechemicals.Itcombinesdeepindustrialexpertise,strong

innovationcapabilities,andaccesstocapitalwitharegulatoryenvironmentthatsystematicallypricescarbonalongthelifecycle.AdjacentmandateddemandingreenfuelslikeSAFforaviationandgreenmethanolandammoniaforshippingcancontributecriticalscaleinproduction.Harnessedeffectively,thesestrengthscanenablethedevelopmentofacompetitive,low-carbonchemicalssectorthat

alignswithEurope’sbroadereconomicandclimateobjectives.

Thisreportcontributestothatvisionbyexaminingwhichendmarketscanactasleadmarketsto

supporttheemergenceofsustainablechemicalsproduction.Itprovidesstrategicframing,conceptualstructureandanalyticalguidancetounderpinmultistakeholderdiscussions,alignthesystemaroundwhichendmarketscanbestsupportbankabilityandstrategicaimsandhowtolinktheseinsightsto

designingeffectivedemandinstruments.Thecentralquestionaddressedishowtoidentifythoseendmarketsbestpositionedtoactasleadmarkets,basedonscale,contributiontoEuropeanstrategic

objectivesandimpactimplementationfeasibility.Ratherthanprescribingasinglepathway,theanalysisaimstoinformdecision-makersbyclarifyingkeyrationales,trade-offs,anddesign

considerations.

Thereportdoesnotseektodefineorassumeapresettransitionpathwayforthechemicalssector,nordoesitfavourspecificsustainableproductionroutesorfeedstocks.However,itrecognisesthatthedevelopmentofleadmarketsmustbegroundedintherealisticpathstoindustrialsupplywhichdifferdependingontimehorizons.Thisincludesnavigatingtheinherenttrade-offsbetween

retrofittingexistingassetsandinfrastructureandscalingemergingtechnologiesandalternativefeedstocksthatmayofferlonger-termadvantages.

Morebroadly,thisworkcanbeunderstoodasanexerciseinindustrialstrategyappliedtoaspecific

sectorandpolicylever.Startingfromoverarchingstrategicobjectives,itanalyseshowdifferentend

marketscontributetothesegoalsandhowpolicycanbetailoredtoalignmarketdynamicswith

strategicpriorities.Whilethefindingsaregroundedintheparticularitiesofthechemicalssector,

manyoftheunderlyingconsiderationsandtrade-offshavewiderrelevanceforEuropeanindustrial

policy.Inthissense,thereportalsoservesasapracticalcasestudyinthedesignandimplementationofforward-lookingindustrialstrategy.

SystemiqLeadmarketsinchemicals2

Glossary

Keyconceptsofthisreport

Adjacencies:Relatedmarketsorapplicationsthatshareupstreamproductionroutes,feedstocksorinfrastructurewithsustainablechemicalsandcanhelpreinforcedemand,scaleandinvestment.

Endproducteconomics:Theabilityofafinalproductmarkettoabsorborpassthroughthecost

premiumofsustainablechemicalswithoutmajordemandloss,affordabilityissuesorcompetitivenessimpacts.

Endmarket:Thedownstreamapplicationorsectorinwhichchemicalsareultimatelyused(e.g.packaging,construction,automotive,fertilisers).Endmarketsdeterminedemandforupstreamchemicalproduction.

Leadmarket:Anendmarketthatcancreateearly,credibleandscalabledemandforsustainable

chemicals,enablinginvestmentbyprovidingbankableofftake(i.e.predictablelong-termdemandatviablepricelevels).

Sustainablechemicals:Chemicalproductswithsignificantlylowerlifecyclegreenhousegas

emissionscomparedtoconventionalfossil-basedproduction.ThisincludesreductionsinScope1and2emissionsfromproduction,aswellasScope3emissionsthroughtheuseofalternative

feedstocks(e.g.biomass,recycledmaterials,capturedcarbon)andimprovedend-of-lifeoutcomes.

Othertermsandacronymsused

B2B(Business-to-Business)

Commercialtransactionsbetweenbusinesses,typicallyinvolvingintermediategoodsorinputsratherthanfinalconsumerproducts.

B2C(Business-to-Consumer)

Commercialtransactionsbetweenbusinessesandendconsumers.

CBAM(CarbonBorderAdjustment

Mechanism)

EUpolicyinstrumentthatappliesacarbonpricetoimportsofcertaingoodstopreventcarbonleakage.

CCfDs(CarbonContractsforDifference)

Publicsupportmechanismthatguaranteesafixedcarbonpricetobridgethecostgapbetweenconventionalandlow-emissionsproduction.

CCS(CarbonCaptureandStorage)

TechnologythatcapturesCO₂emissionsfromindustrialprocessesandstoresthemundergroundtopreventreleaseintotheatmosphere.

COGS(CostofGoodsSold)

Thedirectcostsattributabletotheproductionofgoodssoldbyacompany,includingmaterials,energyandmanufacturingcosts.

SystemiqLeadmarketsinchemicals3

CPR(Construction

ProductsRegulation)

EUregulatoryframeworkgoverningconstructionproductsandtheirperformancecharacteristics.

ELV(End-of-Life

Vehicles)Directive

EUpolicygoverningthetreatmentofvehiclesatendoflife,including

requirementsforcollection,dismantling,reuse,recyclingandrecoveryofmaterials.

Embodiedcarbon

Thecarboncontainedwithinmaterialsthatmaybereleasedduringuseoratendoflife.

EPD(EnvironmentalProductDeclaration)

Standardiseddocumentprovidingverifiedenvironmentalimpactdataofproductsacrossitslifecycle.

ESPR(EcodesignforSustainableProductsRegulation)

EUframeworkestablishingrequirementsforproductsustainability,includingdurability,recyclabilityandenvironmentalperformance.

GHG(GreenhouseGas)

Gasesthattrapheatintheatmosphere,includingCO₂,methaneandnitrousoxide.

Greenpremium

Theadditionalcostassociatedwithproducingorpurchasinglower-

emissionorsustainablealternativescomparedtoconventionalproducts.

HVC(HighValueChemicals)

Corechemicalbuildingblockssuchasethylene,propylene,benzeneandderivativesusedacrossmultipleindustrialapplications.

LCA(LifeCycleAssessment)

Amethodologytoassessenvironmentalimpactsacrossthefulllifecycleofaproduct,fromrawmaterialstoend-of-life.

MTO(Methanol-to-Olefins)

Achemicalprocessthatconvertsmethanolintoolefins(e.g.ethylene,propylene),whicharekeybasechemicalsforplastics.

NACE(NomenclatureofEconomicActivities)

EUstatisticalclassificationsystemforeconomicsectors.

OEM(OriginalEquipment

Manufacturer)

Companythatproducesfinalproductsorsystems,oftenassemblingcomponentsfromsuppliers.

PFAS(Per-andpolyfluoroalkylsubstances)

Agroupofsyntheticchemicalswidelyusedfortheirresistancetoheat,waterandoil.Oftenreferredtoas“foreverchemicals”duetotheir

persistenceintheenvironmentandpotentialhealthimpacts.

SystemiqLeadmarketsinchemicals4

Polymers(PE,PP,PVC,PET,PU/PUR,PS)

Plasticsmadeoflongmolecularchains,widelyusedinpackaging,

construction,automotiveandconsumergoods.Keytypesinclude

polyethylene(PE),polypropylene(PP),polyvinylchloride(PVC),

polyethyleneterephthalate(PET),polyurethane(PU/PUR)andpolystyrene(PS),eachwithdistinctpropertiesandapplications.

PPWR(PackagingandPackagingWaste

Regulation)

EUregulatoryframeworkgoverningpackagingsustainability,includingrecycledcontenttargetsandwastereductionmeasures.

SAF(SustainableAviationFuel)

Low-emissionaviationfuelderivedfromnon-fossilorwaste-basedfeedstocks.

SMR(SteamMethaneReforming)

Aconventionalprocessforproducinghydrogenfromnaturalgas,typicallyassociatedwithhighCO₂emissions.Alsousedinconventionalammoniaproduction.

SUPD(Single-UsePlasticsDirective)

EUdirectiveaimedatreducingtheimpactofcertainplasticproductsontheenvironment.

TRL(TechnologyReadinessLevel)

Scaleusedtoassessthematurityofatechnologyfromearly-stageresearchtofullcommercialdeployment.

WTP(WillingnesstoPay)

Themaximumpriceaconsumerorbusinessiswillingtopayfora

product,oftenusedtoassessfeasibilityofpassingongreenpremiums.

SystemiqLeadmarketsinchemicals5

Contents

Preface 1

Glossary 2

Keyconceptsofthisreport 2

Othertermsandacronymsused 2

Executivesummary 6

Context 7

Definingobjectives 9

RoleofleadmarketsinEuropeanchemicals 9

Assessingleadmarketpotential 11

Prioritisingchemicalendmarkets 12

Rationalesforstrategicprioritisation 12

1.Scale:marketsize 14

2.Strategy:economyandemployment 15

3.Strategy:Sustainability 16

4.Strategy:securityandautonomy 18

5.Feasibility:end-producteconomics 19

6.Feasibility:enforceabilityofdemandlevers 21

7.Feasibility:politicaleconomy 22

Operationalisingleadmarkets 24

Mappingthetoolkit 24

Linkinginstrumentswithendmarketsandgoals 25

Theroleofupstreamproductionroutes 26

Recommendednextsteps 28

Methodology(detailsincompendium) 29

SystemiqLeadmarketsinchemicals6

Executivesummary

Europe’schemicalindustryiscentraltotheEU’scompetitiveness,securityandclimate

objectives.Yetthesectorfacesstructuralpressurefromhighenergyandfeedstockcosts,

geopoliticaluncertainty,tradedistortionsandweakdemand,whichhaveerodedtheinvestmentcase.ThecrisisaroundtheStraitofHormuzdemonstratesthattransitioningtheEUchemicalssectortolowcarbonemissionproductionroutesandalternativestovirginfossilfuelfeedstocksisaboutmorethanclimateandsustainability,butalsotouchesoncompetitiveness,resilienceandsecurity.

Themainbarriertoscalingsustainablechemicalsiscommercialviability.Sustainablechemicalsproductioninvolvescapitalinvestmentandgreenpremia,andproducersstruggletosecurebankabledemandthatsupportstheseinvestments.Closingthisgaprequirescoordinatedactionacrosssupply,competitivenessanddemandcreation.

Leadmarketscancreateearly,credibleandscalabledemandforsustainablechemicals.Bytranslatingfuturedemandintobankableofftake,theyprovidetherevenuecertaintyneededfor

producersandinvestorstofinancehighercostsustainablechemicals.Identifyingsuchmarketsischallenging,andthispaperprovidesaframeworkforprioritisation.

Leadmarketswereassessedalongthreedimensions.Scalewasassessedthroughrelative

demandsize.Strategicvaluewasassessedthroughemployment,abatementpotentialandstrategiccriticality.Feasibilitywasassessedthroughend-producteconomics,policyenforceabilityandpoliticaleconomyconsiderations.Weseethreestrategicrationalesforprioritisation:

•Scaledfirstmovers:construction,packagingandautomotive.Thesemarketscombinescaledofftakewithfeasibility(incl.existinglegislativetoolslikePPWR),makingthemgoodleadmarkets.

•Strategicniches:pharmaceuticalsandelectronics.Thesemarketscanbeprioritisedduetotheirhighstrategicvalueandfeasibility,buttheyhavelimitedscale.

•Strategicbutcomplex:fertilisersandmanufacturing.Thesemarketscombinestrategicvalueandscalebuthavecustomerfragmentationandfeasibilitybarriers(e.g.price).

Noclusterofend-marketsticksalltheboxes:strategictrade-offsremain.Prioritisingstrategicbenefitsmaymeanharderchallengesinimplementation,forexamplewhenahighend-product

premiumneedstobepassedon.Prioritisingclimatemeansgoingforenergy-intensevolume-drivensectors,whileemploymentandinnovationareconcentratedinsmaller,highvaluesectors.

Takingthisforwardrequiresoperationalisingaviablepolicyframeworkforprioritylead

markets.Thesemeasuresneedtobecalibratedtothedynamicsandfeasibilityconstraintsofend

marketsanddesignedwithstrategicobjectivesinmind.E.g.,policiesshouldaccommodatefeedstockandrulesoforiginspecificationsupthevaluechainwherestrategicautonomyisanexplicitgoal.

Policiesshouldalsoconsidertrade-offsinthedifferentproductionroutes.Today’slowestcostandmostmatureabatedroutes(e.g.CCS)maynotalwayssupportfuturecompetitiveness.Unless

theyaredesignedwithalong-termtransitioninmind,leadmarketpoliciesriskcreatinglock-inof

suboptimaldevelopmentpathsorstrandedassets.AdjacencywithammoniaandmethanolforgreenfuelproductionprovidesanopportunityforalargerEUsustainablechemicalsplay,ifdesignedwell.

Recommendednextstepsincludebuildingplausiblescenariostosupportstrategicprioritisation,shiftingfromend-markettochemicalproductgranularity,connectingleadmarketswithappropriatedemandpolicyinstruments,andshapingtheroleofchemicalsleadmarketsinalarger“EU

sustainablemolecules”playthatincludesgreenfuelstoreachcriticalscale.

SystemiqLeadmarketsinchemicals7

Context

Europe’schemicalindustrysitsattheintersectionoftheEU’scompetitiveness,securityand

climateagendas.AsreflectedintheEuropeanChemicalsIndustryActionPlan(July2025),the

sectorfacesacutestructuralpressure:persistentlyhighenergyandfeedstockcosts,geopolitical

risks,tradedistortionsandweakdemandhaveerodedtheinvestmentcaseforproductioninEurope.Assetclosuresanddownsizingunderlinetheurgencyofrestoringaviablelong-termpathwayfortheindustry.

Atthesametime,chemicalsareafoundationalupstreamsectorforEuropeanmanufacturing

andcleantechnologyvaluechains.Theirtransitionisthereforenotonlyaquestionofsectoral

decarbonisation,butofindustrialresilience,strategicautonomyandthecredibilityofEurope’s

industrialstrategy.Crucially,thiswillbeadualtransition:ontheonehandshiftingexistingproductiontolowercarbonemissionroutes,andontheotherhandscalingthevaluechaincapacityforemergingmolecules.

Arobust,futureproofEuropeanchemicalssectorwilldependonaligningindustrial

competitivenesswithwidereconomic,environmentalandstrategicpriorities.Thismeans

sustainingcompetitiveproductionwithbothacredibletransitionforexistingcapacityandscaling

emergingproductionroutes.Itmeanscontinuingtodeliverstrongeconomicvalueandhigh-quality

employmentacrossthevaluechain.ThesectorwillneedtocontributemeaningfullytotheEU’s

climateandsustainabilityambitions:fossilfueldependencywillnotworkforafutureproofchemicalsecosystem.Itincludesreducingstructuraldependenciesandstrengtheninggeopoliticalandstrategicautonomy,andoperatingwithinaframeworkofpoliciesthatarebotheffectiveandpoliticallyfeasible.TheabilitytobalanceandreinforcetheseobjectiveswillbecentraltoshapingaresilientandfuturefitchemicalsindustryinEurope.

Thecorechallengeisnottechnologicalfeasibility,butcommercialviability.Low-carbon

productionroutesandalternativecarbonsources,includingbiomass,recycledwaste,andCCU,

typicallyentailhighercapitalintensityandoperatingcostsinEuropecomparedtoproducersinotherregions.Whilesupply-sideinnovationisadvancing,investmentdecisionsremainconstrainedby

insufficientbankabledemand.Firstmoversstruggletosecurelong-termofftakeatpricelevelsthatreflectgreenpremiums,anddownstreammarketsareoftenfragmentedandcost-sensitive.Withoutcredibledemandsignals,capitalisdelayedordivertedandEuroperiskslosingoutonthiscritical

investmentcycleinfavourofotherregionswithweakerclimateambitions,erodingakeypillaroftheeconomywhilelockingusintoanunsustainablefuture.

Closingthisinvestmentgaprequirescoordinatedactionacrosscompetitiveness,supply-sidetransitionanddemandcreation.However,demand-sideinterventionmustbetargeted.Notallend

SystemiqLeadmarketsinchemicals8

marketsofferequalleverageintermsofemissionsabatement,costpass-throughpotential,resiliencebenefitsoramenabilitytopolicyinstruments.Asystematicprioritisationisthereforeessentialto

ensurethatfuturerequirementsandincentivesfocusonapplicationscapableofdeliveringmaximumclimateimpact,whilestrengtheningEurope’sindustrialbaseintheimmediatefuture,andinthelong-terminanetzeroeconomy.

ThecurrentcrisisaroundtheStraitofHormuzdemonstratesthatconventionalchemicalsbringstructuralvulnerabilities.Thehighrelianceonvirginfossilfuelfeedstock(e.g.,naturalgas,and

naphtha)isnotonlyunsustainableduetoitscontributiontoclimatechange.Inthecurrentgeopoliticalcontext,theyarevulnerabilitiesforEUcompetitivenessandeconomicsecurity.Europeisacontinentpoorinfossilfuelreserves,andthesupplyoffossilfuelsandfeedstocksisnolongerreliable.US

fertiliserandethyleneproducersarealreadygainingmarketshareastheyaremoreinsulatedfromtheHormuzcrisis

.1

ThesepressuresareexistentialfortheEuropeanchemicalssectorandtouchuponthebreadthofEUstrategicpolicyambitionsacrossindustrialcompetitiveness,strategicautonomy,climategoals

andbeyond.Atthesametime,theEUalsohasanopportunitytobecompetitivewithinsustainablechemicals:itislessaffectedthanAsianproducersbyfeedstockshortages.Inthecurrentmarket

volatilityaroundfossilfuels,sustainablecarbonfrombiomassandrecyclingalsofacesawindowofopportunitytobuildasustainablechemicalsvaluechain.

WhatisneededisanindustrialstrategyapproachthatstartsfromthedriversfortheEU

chemicalssector(perillustrationabove),usesthattoprioritisewhichmarketsneedinterventionfirst,andthenshapespoliciesthatarecalibratedtothemarketdynamicsandstrategicobjectivesfor

prioritisedmarkets.

1FinancialTimes(2026).USfertiliserbossescashinasIranwarboostsshares.

SystemiqLeadmarketsinchemicals9

Definingobjectives

RoleofleadmarketsinEuropeanchemicals

Sustainablechemicalsareproductswithsignificantlylowergreenhousegasemissions.This

includesnotonlydirectScope1and2emissionsfromchemicalproductionandprocessing,butalsoScope3emissionsfromfeedstockproduction,andendoflife.Abatementcanbedoneindifferent

ways,includingswitchingproductionroutestoelectrifiedormoreefficientprocesses,integratingcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS),orshiftingcarbonfeedstocksawayfromfossilfuelstowardsalternativessuchasbiomass,recycledwastestreamsorcapturedcarbon(CCU).

SustainablechemicalsincludeproductionrouteswhichstructurallylowerScope1and2

emissions,andalternativestovirginfossilfuelfeedstock.Importantly,theuseofsustainable

carbonfeedstocksdoesnotinitselfabsolveproductsfromScope3considerations.Lifecycle

emissionsstillincludeupstreamfeedstocksourcing,processing,transport,andend-of-lifetreatment.

Leadmarketsaretheendmarketsorapplicationareasthatcancreateearly,credibleand

scalabledemandforsustainableEU-madechemicals.Theyhelppullnewsupplyintothemarket.Theytranslatefuturedemandintobankableofftaketoday:long-termpredictabledemandbackedbypolicyobligationsorvoluntarycommitmentsthatgiveproducersandinvestorsconfidencethathighercostlowcarbonproductionwillfindareliablemarketatapricethatsupportsreturns.Creatinglead

marketsrequiresprioritisationofthoseendmarketswherepoliciescanbestrategicandeffective.

Tostartprioritising,endmarketsneedtobescopedandsegmentedfirst.Thisinvolvespracticalchallenges.Anidealmarketcombinesscale,policytraction,traceabilityofchemicalinputsandabilitytotranslateregulationintocredibledemandsignals.Inpracticesuchmarketsrarelyexist.

Policymakersmustselectamongimperfectcandidateswheredemandsignalscanbemosteffectivelyanchored.Akeyquestioniseithertofocusonmarketswherechemicalsaredirectlyprocured,orondownstreamsectorswithstrongcompliancepoints.

Anotherconsiderationistheappropriatelevelofgranularityforanalysis.Thisrangesfrombroadchemicalgroups(e.g.ammonia,HVCplasticsandHVCnon-plastics),tocustomerofftakesegments

(e.g.automotive,packaging)tospecificchemical-offtakercombinations(e.g.polypropylene(PP),

polyurethane(PU)andpolyvinylchloride(PVC)withinautomotive).Inthisstudy,abalancedapproachistakentoensurebothanalyticalrobustnessandpracticalrelevanceindefiningendmarkets.

SystemiqLeadmarketsinchemicals10

Thechemicalsvaluechainishighlycomplexanddecisionsatonestagecansignificantly

influenceoutcomeselsewhereinthevaluechain.Demandsignalsaffectdifferentpartsofthe

upstreamsupplychaindependingonhowthesemeasuresaredesigned.Insomecases,policyor

procurementsignalsmayprimarilyinfluencespecialtyproductsteps(

e.g.food-grade

plasticwrapperfilm).Inthissteptherearehighlyidiosyncraticproductcharacteristics,suchasperformance

requirementsinautomotive.Inothercases,demandmeasuresmaypropagatefurtherupthe

productionvaluechaintobasicchemicalsmanufacturing(e.g.ethylene)orevenfeedstockselection(e.g.fossilnaphtha).Upstreamchoicesalsodetermineend-of-lifeemissionsthroughtheembeddedcarbonoffeedstock.Bio-basedfeedstock,forexample,containsthesameamountofcarbonbutisconsideredlow-emissionasthelifecyclefootprintisemissionneutral.

Belowisthescopeandgranularityofchemicalsend-marketsusedinthisstudy.Webalancedsufficientgranularitytogenerateactionableinsightswithenoughscaletoensuremeaningfulimpactacrossthechemicalsvaluechain.Thisrequirespragmaticchoicesonhowendmarketsaredefined,ensuringthatdemandsignalscanbecrediblylinkedtoupstreamchemicalproductionwhile

maintaininganalyticalclarity.Dependingonthepurposeanddataavailabilityforeachanalysis,wehavefocusedoneitherthechemicalclustergroup(ammonia,HVCplasticsorHVCnon-polymers),theofftakerendmarket(fertiliser,packaging,pharma,etc.),oraspecificend-marketproduct.Theusedscopeisataxonomydevelopedforthisreport,butinformedbyinstitutionalsources(CEFIC,IEA,EuroStat,…).

Aspartofthisscope,wehaveexcludedtheemergingmarketforlowcarbonfuels.Theseare

usuallyalreadydrivenbydistinctpolicyframeworksanddemandmechanismsoutsideoftraditional

chemicalsmarkets.Thisisparticularlyrelevantforsustainableaviationfuels(SAF)andammoniaandmethanolforshipping,whichwillrelyonthechemicalsvaluechainatthelevelofbasicchemicalsandfeedstocks.

Thesemoleculesstillrepresentcriticaladjacenciestobeconsidered.Theirscaleoftenreliesonthesameproductionpathways,infrastructureandfeedstocksaslowcarbonchemicals.However,

demandforthesefuelsisalreadymandatedthroughReFuelEUAviationandFuelEUMaritime,whichprovidestrong,dedicateddemandsidesignals.Assuch,theywillplayanimportantroleinenablingthebroadertransitiontosustainablecarbonandlowcarbonmolecules.Together,prioritising

incumbentleadmarketsandemerginggreenfuelscouldcatalysealarger-scaleEUSustainablemoleculesplay.

SystemiqLeadmarketsinchemicals11

Assessingleadmarketpotential

Leadmarketscanbeassessedinthreesteps.First,analysingiftheycanprovideenoughscaleto

movetheneedle.Second,howdirectlytheycancontributetoeconomic,climateandstrategic

objectives.Third,iftheend-producteconomics,industrialmaturityandpolicyenforceabilityconstituteafeasibleleadmarketfordemandlevers.

Eachofthesesevenassessmentcriteriaisoperationalisedthroughoneorseveralindicatorsthatcanbequantifiedorqualifiedtoinformdecisionmakersandsupportprioritisation.

Scale:canthismarketdrivescaledimpactinthechemicalsvaluechain?

1.Demandsize:quantifytheshareoftheendmarketintotalEuropeanchemicalsofftake.Thisis

donebothbyvolumeandbyvaluetoinformdifferentstrategicquestions.

Strategy:doesofftakeinthismarketmeaningfullycontributetostrategicgoals?

2.Economyandemployment:analysetheshareofeconomicgrossvalueaddandchemicalsectoremploymentthateachendmarketcouldsafeguardthroughdemandmea