房地产 -2026年日本贷款人调查 Japan Lender Survey 2026

IntelligentInvestment

JAPAN

2026

LenderSurvey

REPORTCBRERESEARCHJUNE2026

IntelligentInvestment2026JAPANLenderSurvey|Report

2CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

ExecutiveSummary

Lendingstanceremainsaccommodative;mezzaninelendinggainsmomentum

–ThefinancingenvironmentforrealestateinJapanremainsaccommodativeandcontinuestoprovidesupporttoabuoyantrealestateinvestmentmarket.BankofJapan(BoJ)statisticsshowoutstandingloanstotherealestatesectorbyJapanesefinancialinstitutions(includesdomesticbanks,Shinkinbanks,andotherfinancialinstitutions)reachedJPY147trillionasoftheendofMarch2026,up7%fromthepreviousfiscalyear-end.Ofthistotal,loansextendedtospecialpurposecompanies(SPCs)forrealestatesecuritizationreachedJPY19trillionasoftheendofMarch2026,up18%fromthepreviousfiscalyear-end,continuingitsupwardtrend(Figure1).TheBoJ'slatestFinancialSystemReport(April2026issue)identifiedthegrowinglevelofrealestatecreditexposureasapotentialriskfactortofinancialsystemstability.However,itsoverallassessmentwasthatnoissueshavearisenthankstoprudentcreditriskmanagementmaintainedbyfinancialinstitutions.

Figure1:LoansOutstandingtotheRealEstateSector

(totalofdomesticallylicensedbanks,Shinkinbanksandotherfinancialinstitutions)

–CBRErecentlycarriedoutitsannualLenderSurveytargetingcompaniesthatproviderealestatefinancing.Thisyear’ssurvey,conductedinAprilandMayofthisyear,askedrespondentsabouttheirlendingactivityinFY2025(fromApril2025toMarch2026)andtheirexpectationsforFY2026.Theresultssuggestnomaterialchangeinthelendingstanceoffinancialinstitutions,indicatingthataccommodativelendingconditionsshouldpersistthroughFY2026.

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

JPYtrnJPYtrn

–AmongFY2025lendingactivity,33%ofseniorlendersand65%ofmezzaninelendersreportedthat100%oftheirloanvolumewasdirectedtowardnewacquisitions,withbothfiguresrepresentinganincreasefromthepriorsurvey.Regardinglendingtermsforprimeassets,LTVcriteriaremainedbroadlyflatcomparedtotheprevioussurvey,whilespreadstightened.Requiredspreadsformezzaninelenders,whichhadbeenonanupwardtrendintheyearsthroughtothe2025survey,declinedacrossallassettypesinthisyear’ssurvey,indicatingthatanincreasingnumberoflendersareconsideringexpandingtheirfocusonornewlyenteringthemezzaninesegment.Inaddition,"location"sawanincreaseinresponsesasanimportantlendingcriterioncomparedtothepriorsurvey,confirmingatrendtowardgreaterselectivityamonglenders.Intermsofpreferredassettypes,officerankedfirstamongbothseniorandmezzaninelenders.

2012/3

2013/3

2014/3

2015/3

2016/3

2017/3

2018/3

2019/3

2020/3

2021/3

2022/3

2023/3

2024/3

2025/3

2026/3

–RegardingtheloanvolumeoutlookforFY2026,approximately60%ofrespondentsindicatedthatvolumeswouldincreasefromthepreviousyear,withnearlyalltheremainderexpectingnochange.Amongmarketriskfactors,"risinginterestrates"retainedtoppositionforthesecondconsecutiveyear.Overthenext12months,while40%ofseniorlendersand60%ofmezzaninelendersexpectspreadstoincrease,somerespondentsanticipatedspreadcompression.Theproportionoflendersexpectingrealestatepricestoriseoverthenext12monthsreached43%,thehighestlevelonrecordsinceCBREfirstconductedthesurveyin2018.

LoansoutstandingtotherealestatesectorOfwhich,loanstoSPCs(RHS)Source:BankofJapan,Macrobond,CBREResearch

IntelligentInvestment2026JAPANLenderSurvey|Report

3CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Japan86%

BankRegionalbank

31%26%

Senior

57%

Respondentprofile(35companies)

0%20%40%60%80%100%

Domicile

Industry

Mainloantype

Overseas14%

Insurancecompany3%

Leasingcompany23%

Source:CBREJapanLenderSurvey,June2026.

Mezzanine

43%

Others

17%

SurveyOverview

–Purpose:Toanalyzelenders’approachtorealestatefinancing

–Target:Partiesengagedinnon-recourseloansforrealestate.

–Surveyperiod:April2026toMay2026

–Totalnumberofrespondents:35companies

–Respondentcompanies(inrandomorder):

UnitedOverseasBankLimitedTokyoBranch

MetLifeInsuranceK.K.

FuyoGeneralLeaseCo.,Ltd.

DAIBIRUCAPITALCORPORATION

TheHokurikuBank,Ltd.

SumitomoMitsuiTrustBank,Limited

SocieteGenerale,TokyoBranch

SBIShinseiBank,Limited

MLEstateCompany,Limited

SurugaBankLtd.

MUFGBank,Ltd.

KiraboshiBank,Ltd.

MitsubishiHCCapitalRealtyInc.

DiamondRealtyManagementInc.

ORIXCorporation

THEOITABANK,LTD.

TheHigoBank,Ltd.

ORIXBankCorporation

MizuhoBank,Ltd.

ResonaBank,Limited

TheBankofFukuoka,Ltd.

ChugokuBank,Ltd.

RegionalInvestmentFukuokaCo.,Ltd

YamaguchiFinancialGroup,Inc.

NorthPacificBank,Ltd.

(And10othercompanies)

IntelligentInvestment2026JAPANLenderSurvey|Report

4CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Appendix:AssumedPropertyAttributes

OFFICERETAILLOGISTICSHOTELRESIDENTIAL

Type

Multi-tenant

n/a

Multi-tenant

BTS

Managementcontract,specialized

accommodationtype,businesshotel

Lease,specialized

accommodationtype,

businesshotel

Single

Family

Location

Otemachi/

Marunouchi,

Chiyoda-ku,

Tokyo

GinzaChuo-doriin

Chuo-ku,Tokyo;high

streetareawhere

leadingbrandshave

stand-alonestores

GreaterTokyoarea

GreaterTokyoarea

Within5minutes'walk

ofamainrailterminal

withintheTokyocentral

fivewards

Within5minutes'walk

ofamainrailterminal

withintheTokyocentral

fivewards

Within10minutes'walk

ofarailterminalwithin

theTokyocentralfive

wards

Tokyosouth/

westdistrict

Age

Lessthanfiveyears

n/a

n/a

n/a

Aboutfiveyears

Aboutfiveyears

Aboutfiveyears

Aboutfiveyears

Size

Typicaleffective

floorarea500tsuboor

above,

around20to25floorsaboveground

n/a

Totalfloorarea:10,000tsubo

ormore

Totalfloorarea:10,000tsubo

ormore

About100units

About100units

Averageexclusive

occupancyarea25m2,

totalnumberofunits

around50

Averageexclusive

occupancyarea

50–80sq.m.(3LDK),

totalnumberof

unitsaround50

Propertyprice

JPY50billion

orhigher

JPY20billionorhigher

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Other

Freeaccessfloor,

ceilingheightof

atleast2,800mm,

airconditioning

adjustablebyzone

n/a

Fiveto10-yearfixedtermlease

Fiveto10-yearfixedtermlease

Occupancyrate:80%orhigher

Occupancyrate:80%orhigher

n/a

n/a

Source:CBREJapanLenderSurvey,June2026

01

Lenders’Attitudes

IntelligentInvestment2026JAPANLenderSurvey|Report

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LendingactivityinFY2025

Mezzaninelendingfornewacquisitionsgainsmomentum

RegardingtheproportionofFY2025lendingactivitydirectedtowardnewacquisitions(byloanvolume),33%ofseniorlendersand65%ofmezzaninelendersreportedthat100%oftheirloanswerefornewacquisitions(Figure2).Theproportionreporting"100%newacquisitions"increasedfromtheprevioussurveyforbothseniorandmezzaninelenders,confirmingthatlendingfornewacquisitionsremainsactive.

Theproportionofmezzaninelendersreporting"100%newacquisitions"reachedthehighestlevelinfiveyears.Consideringresponsesof"81–90%"and"91-99%",nearlyallmezzaninelendersdirectedmorethan80%oftheirmezzanineloanvolumetowardnewacquisitions.

Amongseniorlenders,theproportionsreporting"81–90%"and"91-99%"contractedfromtheprevioussurvey,whiletheproportionsreporting"71–80%"and"1-70%"expanded.

MezzanineSenior

45%

22%

25%32%

33%

40%

38%50%

45%65%

0%1-70%71-80%81-90%91-99%100%

Excludesnoanswer/notapplicable

Source:CBREJapanLenderSurvey,June2026.

Figure2:PercentageofLoansforNewAcquisitionsinthePreviousFiscalYear(byloanvolume)

2022(n=22)2023(n=23)2024(n=20)2025(n=22)2026(n=21)2022(n=15)2023(n=16)2024(n=18)2025(n=20)2026(n=20)

0%20%40%60%80%100%

IntelligentInvestment2026JAPANLenderSurvey|Report

7CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

LendingactivityinFY2025

Halfoflendersreport100%floatingrateloans

RegardingthebreakdownofFY2025lendingactivitybyinterestratetype,48%ofallrespondentsreportedthat100%oftheirloanswerefloatingrate(0%fixedrate)(Figure3).Thethree-monthTokyoInterbankOfferedRate(TIBOR)stoodat1.27%asoftheendofMarch2026,up45bpsfromthepreviousfiscalyear-end.DespitethebaseratehavingrisensignificantlyduringFY2025,borrowersappeartohavecontinuedtopreferfloatingrateloans.However,accordingtoresponsestoaseparatequestioninthesurvey,somelendersobservedanincreaseincaseswhererisingbaseratestriggeredbreachesofcovenantsrequiringpurchasesofinterestratecapsduringFY2025.

Theproportionoflendersreporting100%fixedrateloansremainedlimitedat6%,withallsuchresponsescomingfrommezzaninelenders.

FloatingrateFixedrate

0%1-50%51-60%61-70%71-80%81-90%91-99%100%

Excludesnoanswer

Source:CBREJapanLenderSurvey,June2026.

12%7%3%6%

2023202420252026

(n=25)(n=30)(n=29)(n=33)

Figure3:PercentageofLoansbyInterestRateTypeinthePreviousFiscalYear(bynumberofloans)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

3%

24%

2023202420252026

(n=25)(n=30)(n=29)(n=33)

12%

20%

7%

40%

6%

48%

24%

48%

20%

40%

IntelligentInvestment2026JAPANLenderSurvey|Report

8CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

OutlookforFY2026

LendersanticipateonetotwoadditionalratehikesduringFY2026

ThesurveyaskedrespondentsaboutthemagnitudeofadditionalratehikestheyanticipateduringFY2026(notethatthissurveywasconductedwhenthepolicyratewas0.75%,priortothepolicyratehikeatthemostrecentMonetaryPolicyMeetingheldonJune15-16,2026,whichbroughtthepolicyrateto1.00%.)

Theresultsshowedthat46%anticipatedadditionalhikesof10–25bps,and51%anticipatedadditionalhikesof30–50bps,withnorespondentsexpectingeithernofurtherratehikeoranincreaseofmorethan50bps(Figure4).Assumingeachratehikeis25bps,virtuallyalllendersareanticipatingonetotwoadditionalratehikeswithinFY2026.

Figure4:ProjectedPolicyRateHikesinFY2026

Noadditionalratehike

Additionalratehikeof10-25bps

46%

n=35

Source:CBREJapanLenderSurvey,June2026.

Additionalratehikeofmorethan50bps

0%0%

Additionalratehikeof30-50bps

NA

3%

51%

IntelligentInvestment2026JAPANLenderSurvey|Report

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OutlookforFY2026

Morethanhalfoflendersexpectincreaseinloanvolume

RegardingtheoutlookforloanvolumeinFY2026,theproportionofrespondentsexpectinganincreasefromFY2025expandedfromtheprevioussurveyforbothseniorandmezzaninelenders(Figure5).

Theproportionofseniorlendersexpectinganincreaseinloanvolumereached60%,thehighestlevelsincethesurveywasfirstconductedin2018.Amongthereasonscitedfortheexpectedincrease,asizablenumberofresponsespointedtolargerdealsizes.Thislikelyreflectsnotonlythebuoyantrealestateinvestmentmarket,butalsothegrowingprevalenceinrecentyearsofassettypessuchasofficesandhotels,whichtendtoinvolvelargertransactionsizes.

Mezzaninelendersexpectinganincreaseinloanvolumereached57%,upfrom35%intheprevioussurvey.Thismayinpartreflectthegrowingnumberoflendersconsideringexpandingtheirfocusonornewlyenteringthemezzaninesegment.Ingeneral,whenrealestatepricesriseandfundsnecessaryforassetpurchasesincrease,moreequitywillberequired,ortheLTVratiomustberaised.SinceseniorlendershaveLTVlimits,anyadditionalincreaseinLTVmustbecoveredbymezzaninefinancing.Againstabackdropofcontinuedrealestatepriceappreciation,theprospectofsustaineddemandformezzanineloansofthisnature,combinedwiththehigherreturnsrelativetoseniorlending,arecontributingtothegrowingappealofmezzaninefinancing.

MezzanineSenior

LendmorethanlastyearLendasmuchaslastyearLendlessthanlastyear

Excludesnoanswer/notapplicable.

Source:CBREJapanLenderSurvey,June2026.

39%33%

58%50%

60%54%

53%

60%35%

57%

2022(n=18)2023(n=24)2024(n=26)2025(n=26)2026(n=25)2022(n=13)2023(n=17)2024(n=20)2025(n=23)2026(n=28)

0%20%40%60%80%100%

Figure5:AnticipatedNewLoanVolumeinFY2026ComparedtoFY2025

IntelligentInvestment2026JAPANLenderSurvey|Report

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OutlookforFY2026

Risinginterestratesremaintopriskfactor

Morethan70%ofrespondentsidentified"risinginterestrates"asthegreatestriskfactorthreateningdebtmarketexpansionoverthenext12months(Figure6).Theproportionsciting"risinginterestrates"and"uncertaingeopoliticallandscape"bothincreasedfromtheprevioussurvey.InadditiontoinflationarypressuresstemmingfromhigheroilpricesdrivenbythedeterioratingsituationintheMiddleEast,thesharpriseinthebenchmark10-yeargovernmentbondyield(long-terminterestrates)duringthesurveyperiod,amidgrowingconcernsoverpotentialfiscaldeterioration,mayhavealsoinfluencedtheresults.

Figure6:GreatestRiskFactortotheDebtMarketinFY2025(singleanswer)

0%20%40%60%80%100%

Higherinterestrates

Uncertaingeopoliticallandscape

Economicrecession

Inflation

Increaseinrealestatelending

Excesssupplyintherealestatemarket

Other/NA

2024(n=31)2025(n=30)2026(n=35)

Source:CBREJapanLenderSurvey,June2026.

02

LendingConditions

IntelligentInvestment2026JAPANLenderSurvey|Report

12CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Keylendingcriteria

Lendersshowgreatertendencytowarddealselectivity

Figure7:PriorityLendingCriterion(singleanswer)

0%25%50%

Senior2026(n=20)

Asintheprevioussurvey,LTVremainedthemostimportantlendingcriterionforbothseniorandmezzaninelenders(Figure7).However,theproportionofrespondentsselectingLTVhasbeendecliningforbothseniorandmezzaninelenders,withtheproportionciting"location"asapriorityincreasingfromtheprevioussurvey.

Theproportionciting"stablecashflows"declinedforbothseniorandmezzaninelenders.Seniorlendersshowedagreatertendencytoprioritize"qualityofsponsor,”whilemezzaninelendersshowedagreatertendencytoprioritize“spread.”

ThesurveyalsoaskedaseparatequestionregardingrevisionstolendingcriteriaintroducedinFY2025orplannedforintroductioninFY2026inresponsetorisinginterestrates.While"nochangetolendingcriteria"wasthemostcommonresponse,"strengtheningdealselectivity"wasthenextmostfrequentlycited.Thissuggeststhatlendersarebecomingincreasinglyselectiveintheirdealassessment,placinggreateremphasisonproperty-specificfactorssuchaslocationasabasisforsecuringfuturetenantdemandandliquidityatthetimeofsale.

Senior2025(n=19)

LTV

Location

Qualityofsponsor

Stablecashflows

Spread

Assettype

Appraisalvalue

Other

Senior2024(n=20)

LTV

Location

Qualityofsponsor

Stablecashflows

Spread

Assettype

Appraisalvalue

Other

Mezzanine2024

(n=11)

0%25%50%

Mezzanine2026

(n=15)

Mezzanine2025

(n=10)

Excludesnoanswer

Source:CBREJapanLenderSurvey,June2026.

Excludesnoanswer

Source:CBREJapanLenderSurvey,June2026.

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ChangesinLTVandspreadcriteria

LTVcriteriaremainbroadlyunchanged

LTVcriteriarequiredbylendersforprimeassetswerebroadlyunchangedorslightlyhigherforseniorlenders,whileremaininglargelystableformezzaninelenders.

Inthe2025survey,LTVcriteriaforseniorlendersdeclinedforsomeassettypes.Inthisyear’ssurvey,however,theupperboundsforhotelsandresidentialpropertiesmovedupward,whilecriteriaforallotherassettypesremainedunchanged(Figure8).Formezzaninelenders,LTVcriteriaforretailfacilitieswereraised,whilethelowerboundforlogisticsfacilitiesmoveddownward(Figure9).

Overall,LTVcriteriaremainedbroadlyunchanged,suggestingthatevenamidrisingrealestateprices,lendershavenotmovedtoadoptamoreconservativestanceonacceptableLTVrangesforprimeassets.

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Figure8:PrimeAssetLoanLTVCriteria(rangeandaveragefigures-Senior)

80(%)

70

60

50

40

Maximumandminimumrangevaluestakenfrommedianvalueofallanswers,averagevaluestakenfrommeanofmaximumandminimumvalues.Source:CBREJapanLenderSurvey,June2026.

HoteiResidential

(managementcontract)(single)

Office

(Marunouchi/Otemachi)

Logisticsfacilities(multi-tenant)

Retailfacilites(high-street)

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Figure9:PrimeAssetLoanLTVCriteria(rangeandaveragefigures-Mezzanine)

90(%)

80

70

60

50

Maximumandminimumrangevaluestakenfrommedianvalueofallanswers,averagevaluestakenfrommeanofmaximumandminimumvalues.Source:CBREJapanLenderSurvey,June2026.

HoteiResidential

(managementcontract)(single)

Office

(Marunouchi/Otemachi)

Logisticsfacilities(multi-tenant)

Retailfacilites(high-street)

14CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

ChangesinLTVandspreadcriteria

Maximumandminimumrangevaluestakenfrommedianvalueofallanswers,averagevaluestakenfrommeanofmaximumandminimumvalues.Source:CBREJapanLenderSurvey,June2026.

Figure10:PrimeAssetLoanSpreads(rangeandaveragefigures-Senior)

HoteiResidential

(managementcontract)(singl