安永-重塑未来：2026年及未来全球大趋势洞察报告+Futures+Reimagined

Futures

Reimagined

Understandthemegatrendsshaping

newfuturesinaworldofchange

EYMegatrends2026andbeyond

Clickonthetopicstonavigatethereport

Contents

01.Foreword03

02.WelcometotheNAVIworld

04

03.Newfutures:Preparingforthehuman-machinehybridera

09

3.1.Superfluidenterprise

10

3.2.Thehuman-machinehybrid

16

3.3.Theproductivityreset

22

04.Newfrontiers:Theresourcesoftomorrow

29

4.1.Talentrewritten

30

4.2.Migrationinfrastructure

37

4.3.Globalresourcerush

43

4.4.Thecurrencyoftrust

50

05.Neworder:Aworldreshaped

57

5.1.Capitalismrebalanced

58

06.Howleaderscanshapethefuture

66

07.Methodology

70

08.Contactsandauthors

76

ForewordFuturesReimagined:EYMegatrends2026andbeyond3

03

02

04

05

07

08

01

06

Foreword

FromtherapidevolutionofAItogeopoliticalconflicts,

extremeweathereventsandsupplychaindisruption,leadersareoperatinginaworldthatisconstantlytransforming.Thisisanenvironmentofabruptshocks,acceleratingchange,

suddenreversals,andunexpectedknock-onimpacts.WecallitaNAVIworld,inwhichchangeisincreasinglynonlinear,

accelerated,volatile,andcompletelyinterconnected.

OperatinginaNAVIworldcreatestwokeyimperatives

forleaders.First,itsprofounduncertaintyrequires

organizationstoreimagineandprepareformultiple

versionsofthefuture.Toenablethis,thisreportexplores

eightscenario-basedmegatrendsthatareparticularly

relevantfornavigatingtheterrainahead—fromhow

organizationsoperateandhowhumansandmachines

collaborate,tohowwemeasurevalue,developtalent,

andmovepeopleacrossborders.Itmakesthecasethattrustisbecomingoneoftheeconomy’sscarcestassets,examinesthecompetitionforcriticalresourcesatEarth’sedges,and

askswhethercapitalismitselfmustadapt.

ThesecondimperativecreatedbyNAVIisevenmore

fundamental.Manybestpracticesandwaysofoperating

arenolongerfitforpurpose.Organizationsneedtorethinkassumptionsandtransformhowtheyapproachstrategic

planning,operatingandbusinessmodelinnovation,talentmodels,andriskmanagement.Navigatingthisenvironmentdemandsadifferentkindofleadership,onegroundedin

curiosity,adaptability,andthecouragetoactbeforethepathisfullyclear.

The

EYFuturesReimaginedframework

providesleaders

withastructuredwaytoidentifyandanalyzetrendsrelevanttotheircircumstances.Theeightmegatrendsexplored

inthisreportarechosenbasedonourassessmentof

trendsmosttimelyandrelevantacrossawidespectrumofsectorsandgeographies.Theyarenotanexhaustivelist;insteadtheyprovideastartingpointandspringboardforfurtherexploration.

Thesemegatrendsaredeeplyinterconnected,justas

theforcesdrivingthemare.Athreadrunsthroughall

ofthem:thehumanelement.Technologyreshapeswhatorganizationscanachieve.Butpeopledeterminewhetherthatpotentialisrealized.Theleaderswhothrivewillbe

thosewholookbeyondnear-termcostsavingsfromAItoinvestinhumancapability,buildtrustdeliberately,anddesignorganizationswhereadaptabilityisnotanaspirationbutanoperatingprinciple.

Ibelieveweareataninflectionpoint.Thechoicesleaders

makenow—abouthowtheyrethinktheirapproachto

leadership,restructuretheirorganizations,developtheir

people,deploytechnology,andengagewiththeworld—willcompoundoverthenextdecade.Thisreportdoesn’tprovideasingleanswer.Butitwillgiveyoubetterquestions,sharperframeworks,andtheconfidencetoactdecisivelyinaworldthatrewardsthosewhomovewithpurpose.

Themomentyoustopquestioningisthemomentyou

fallbehind.Iinviteyoutoreadon—andtoleadforward.Willyoushapethefuture,orbeshapedbyit?

HanneJescaBax

EYGlobalViceChair—Clients&Industries

“

InaNAVIworld,the

abilitytoreimaginenew

anddifferentfuturesbecomesatrueleadershipadvantage.

Itenablesleaderstochallengeassumptions,exploreemergingscenarios,andleadandinspireotherstofindafuturepath—freefromtheconstraintsof

thepast.

Welcometo

theNAVIworld

WelcometotheNAVIworldFuturesReimagined:EYMegatrends2026andbeyond5

02

01

03

06

04

05

07

08

HowtonavigatetheNAVIworld

FromtariffstoChatGPT,COVID-19totheGreatResignation,extremeweathereventstosupplychainshocksand

unforeseenknock-onimpacts—ifthelastfewyearshavefeltlikearoller-coasterride,inwhichasuccessionofsurpriseshasshakenyourbusiness,you’renotalone.LongitudinaldatafromEY-ParthenonGeostrategyinPracticeshowsthat

in2021just1%ofglobalexecutivesweresurprisedbypoliticalriskeventsortheirimpacts“mostorallofthetime”;in2025,thatnumberjumpedto35%.1

It’snotjustgeopolitics.Multipledisruptiveforcesareshapingtheglobaloperatingenvironment,includingclimatechange,technologicalinnovation,demographicshifts,andtherisinginfluenceofnon-stateactors.

Theseareexamplesofanewoperatingenvironment.WecallthistheNAVIworldafterthefourcharacteristicsthat

distinguishitfromthepre-pandemicera.Thisisaworldinwhichchangeisincreasinglynonlinear,accelerated,volatileandinterconnected.

It’snonlinearinthesensethatchangecomesinburstsandsuddentippingpoints.TechnologyS-curvescanprecipitatetippingpoints,inwhichtechnologiessuddenlytransitionfromgradualimprovementtohugeadvances,catching

companiesbysurprise.Today,theseS-curvesaresteeper—bringingmorefrequenttippingpoints.Eventypically

slow-movingdemographicshiftsaredeliveringtippingpoints,asbirthratesdropoffrapidlyinChinaandelsewhere.

Climatechangeisbecomingincreasinglynonlinear;scientistspredictwewillcrossasmanyas25tippingpointsintheyearsahead.

Thepaceofchangehasalsoaccelerated.AIisadvancingatanunprecedentedrate—fromChatGPTbreakingrecordsforthespeedofuseradoptionatitslaunch,totherapidclipatwhichnewAIcapabilitiesarebeingrolledout.Climate

changeisacceleratingacrossseveralfronts,fromtherateoficesheetmelttothefrequencyandcostofnatural

disasters.Theacceleratedpaceofchangeisalsovisibleingeopolitics.“Thegeopoliticalworldisfundamentally

differentfromafewyearsago,”saysOliverJones,EY-ParthenonGlobalGeostrategyLeader.“Thespeedofchangehasincreaseddramatically.Tradeliberalizationusedtotakeadecadetonegotiateandimplement.Today,newtariffscanbeenactedinamatterofdays.”

Andtheenvironmentisvolatile,asunexpectedshocksandswingsrockmarkets,politicsandthenaturalworld.

“Politicsarerealigningandgrowingmorepolarized,increasingthelikelihoodofsignificantswingsinpolicyfrom

oneelectiontothenext,”saysCatherineFriday,EYGlobalGovernmentandInfrastructureIndustryLeader.Youngergenerationshavespedupconsumertrendsandfashioncycles,associalmediaandsupplychaininnovationshave

fueledtheriseofmicrotrendsthatcanlastweeks,insteadofyears.

Finally,complexrelationshipsbetweentheforcesofdisruptionmeanchangeisincreasinglyinterconnected.Shockscantriggercascadesofdownstreamimpacts,oftenculminatinginunexpectedoutcomes.Tradepolicyshifts,for

example,canripplethroughsupplychains,redirectcapitalflows,reshapeenergyinvestmentandaltermigrationpatterns—oftensimultaneouslyandinwaysthatcompoundoneanother.

TheNAVIworldpresentsmorethananorganizationalchallenge.Itredefineswhatitmeanstowork,lead,andcreatevalue.

Inthepost-pandemicworld,changeisincreasingly:

Nonlinear

Accelerated

Volatile

Interconnected

WecallthistheNAVIworld.

WelcometotheNAVIworldFuturesReimagined:EYMegatrends2026andbeyond6

02

01

03

06

04

05

07

08

ImposingstructureontheNAVIworld

NavigatingtheNAVIworldrequiresawaytoseparatethesignalfromthenoise,whileplanningformultiplepotentialfutures.ThisiswheretheEYFuturesReimaginedframeworkcomesintoplay(seefigure1).

Theprimaryforces—technology,demographics,sustainabilityandgeopolitics—arerootcausesofchangethatareevergreenandcontinuouslyevolving.Filteringtheday-to-dayheadlinesandbroaderglobaltrendsthroughthesefourprimaryforcesenablesleaderstounderstandtheNAVIworldinamorestructuredway—zeroinginonwhatmattersmosttotheirorganization.

Intersectionsbetweenprimaryforcescreatemegatrends—global,cross-sectorscenariosthatshapehow

organizationsoperate,competeandcreatevalue.Analyzingmegatrendsthroughthelensofprimaryforcescan

providemorepredictivepowerinanuncertainworld.Whileit’shardtoenvisionthenextmegatrend,it’seasiertoseewheretrendsindemographicsortechnologyareheaded.

IntheNAVIworld,thefuturecouldevolveinmultipleways.Leaderscannolongerrelyonasinglesetofpredictions.Theyneedtoassessthebusinessimplicationsofseveralalternativefutures,whichiswhyscenarioanalysisforms

thebasisofourapproachtomegatrends.

Weexploreeightmegatrendsinthisreport,anchoredbytwothroughlines—superfluidenterprise,which

reimagineshoworganizationsoperate,andcapitalismrebalancedwhichexploreswhetherthesystemitselfmustadapt.Thesixmegatrendsinbetweentracetheimplicationsofhumancapability,productivity,talent,migration,trustandthecompetitionforcriticalresources:

■Superfluidenterpriseexploreshoweliminatingfrictionreinventsthecompany.

■Thehuman-machinehybridenvisionswhathappenswhentechnologyexpandshumancapability.

■Theproductivityresetredefinesvaluewhentraditionalmetricsnolongerapply.

■Talentrewrittendelvesintotheco-evolutionofhumanandAIcapability.

■Migrationinfrastructurelooksatbuildingthesystemsthatturndemographicpressureintoadvantage.

■GlobalresourcerushdiscussesinnovationandcompetitionatEarth’sedges.

■Thecurrencyoftrustinvestigateswhycredibilitybecomesthescarcestresource.

■Capitalismrebalancedexploresareallocationofcapitalandresourcestoemphasizediversification,resilienceandlong-termvaluecreation.

Thesemegatrendsareexploredprimarilyattheglobalmacrolevel;wealsohighlighthoweachofthemcould

evolveindifferentsectors.Thesesectoranglesmatterbecausetheseforcesplayoutdifferentlyacrossindustries.

Ourapproachdevelopsscenarioswithdifferinglevelsoflikelihood,rangingfrompossibletoplausibletoprobable.Theyalsoexplorefuturesthatmaybepreferable,withoutcomesorganizationscanactivelyworktoward.Leadersmayfindtheseespeciallyusefulforidentifyingactionstheycantaketodaytoshapethefuturewithconfidence.

IntheNAVIworld,thefuturecouldevolveinmultipleways.Leaderscannolongerrelyonasinglesetofpredictions.Toshapethefuturewith

confidence,theyneedtoplanfordifferentpossiblefutures.

WelcometotheNAVIworldFuturesReimagined:EYMegatrends2026andbeyond7

02

01

03

06

05

04

07

08

Figure1

EYFuturesReimaginedframework

PrimaryforcesOperatingenvironmentMegatrendsSectorangles

Potentialfuturecross-sector

scenarioscreatedbyintersectionsofprimaryforces

Superfluidenterprise

Human-machinehybridTheproductivityreset

Talentrewritten

Migrationinfrastructure

GlobalresourcerushThecurrencyoftrust

Capitalismrebalanced

Rootcausesthatareevergreenandcontinuouslyevolving

Technology

Demographics

Sustainability

Geopolitics

Sector-specificevolutions

createdbyprimaryforcesandsector-specifictrends

Examplesofsectorsimpacted:

ConsumerProducts

Banking&CapitalMarkets

Government&PublicSector

Oil&GasandChemicalsPrivateEquity

Media&Entertainment

Wherechangeisincreasingly

nonlinear,accelerated,volatile,andinterconnected(NAVI)

SuperchargedbyNAVIoperatingenvironment

Enterprisereimagined

InaNAVIworld,shapeyourfuturewithconfidenceby…

Rethinking:

Strategy

Businessmodels

Operatingmodels

Talent

Risk

Transformation

Preparingformultiple

futureswithascenario.basedapproach:

Identifyno-regretmovesthatarerelevantacrossmultiplefutures.

Analyzebasedonthelikelihoodofscenariosandwhichare

preferableforyourenterprise.

WelcometotheNAVIworldFuturesReimagined:EYMegatrends2026andbeyond8

02

01

03

06

04

05

07

08

Future-backplanningtoreimaginetheenterprise

Theeightmegatrendsareintendedtosparknotonlymoreexpansivethinking,butalsofuture-backplanningandthecreationofmoreresilientstrategies.

Future-backplanning,whichstartswithavisionforthefutureandworksbackwardtoidentifytheinvestmentsneededtoday,haslongbeenthegoldstandardforrespondingtodisruptiveinnovation.

InaNAVIworld,future-backplanningrequirestwoupgrades,bothbuiltintotheEYFuturesReimaginedframework.First,thefuturevisioningmustaccountfortheincreasedcomplexityofthenewoperatingenvironmentby

scanningmorewidelyandincorporatingtheimpactofinterconnectionsbetweendisparateforces.Second,itisnolongersufficienttodeveloponevisionofthefuture;severalareneededtoeffectivelynavigateheightenedlevelsofuncertainty.

Thisraisesapracticalquestion:howdoyouprepareformultipledifferentfuturesatonce?Bydistinguishingwhatiscertainfromwhatisuncertain—andmakingno-regretmoves.

TheEYFuturesReimaginedframeworkenablesleaderstoidentifyno-regretmovesthatcanbemadetoday,whichwouldenhanceresilienceandgrowthprospectsacrossmultiplefuturescenarios.Thesecanincluderethinkinganorganization’sstrategy,itsbusinessmodelsandoperatingmodels,howitmanagestalentandrisk,andwhatitstransformationagendaneedstobeintheNAVIworld—themeswereturntoin

Howleaderscanshapethefuture

.

Future-backplanningisn’tjustaboutshapingthefuturewithconfidence.Italsohelpsbuildagilitytoday.TheEY

FuturesReimaginedframeworkhelpsleaderstomoreeffectivelyidentify,orchestrateandrealizevalueacrosstheentireenterprise—inboththeneartermandthelongterm,nomatterhowtheNAVIworldevolvesfromhere.

Newfutures

Preparingfor

thehuman-machine

hybridera

Therelationshipbetweenhumansandmachineshas

alwaysshapedhoworganizationscreatevalue.Whatis

changingasweenteraneweraisthespeed,scale,and

depthofthatpartnership.AI,roboticsandneurotechnologyareevolvingbeyondaugmentingisolatedtaskstoreshapinghowpeoplethink,decideandcollaborate.Thefocusis

shiftingfromdoingmoretodoingwhatmatters:quality,originalityandcreativity.

Thefoundationforthisshiftisthesuperfluidenterprise:anorganizationwhereagenticAI,smartcontractsanddigitaltwinseliminateoperationalfriction,freeingdata,talent

andcapitaltoflowacrossformersilos.Thisinfrastructure

iswhatmakesthenexttwoshiftspossible.Whenfriction

vanishes,humancapabilitiescanmergewithmachine

intelligence,andwhenboththeoperatingenvironment

andtheworkforcearetransformed,traditionalproductivitymetricsbreakdown—andnewonesevolve.

Inthistypeofnonlinearchange,wherethefuture

looksnothinglikethepresent,it’scrucialforbusinessleaderstoreimaginetheirstrategies.

Inthisfirstclusterofmegatrends,weexplorewhatthis

redesigndemands—ofoperatingmodels,human-machine

collaboration,andthemetricsbywhichwemeasuresuccess.

Clickonthetopicstogotothespecificmegatrend

3.1.Superfluidenterprise10

3.2.Thehuman-machinehybrid

16

3.3.Theproductivityreset

22

SuperfluidenterpriseFuturesReimagined:EYMegatrends2026andbeyond10

03

01

06

02

04

05

07

08

Superfluidenterprise

Forgenerations,successfulorganizationshaveexcelledatmanagingfriction:thebarriersthatslowdecisions,hindercoordination,andraiseoperational

costs.Butwhathappenswhenthatfrictionvanishes?

TheconvergenceofagenticAI,blockchain-enabledsmartcontracts,anddigitaltwinsismakingitpossibletofindout.Theresultiswhatwecallthesuperfluidenterprise.It’sanorganizationwhereoperationalfrictionshavebeenallbut

eliminated,andtraditionalhierarchiesgivewaytoflat,networkedstructureswherehumansandAIagentscollaboratetoanunprecedentedextent.

Data,talent,andcapitalflowsmoothlyacrossformersilos.Autonomous

systemsoperatearoundtheclock,adaptinginstantlytomarketchanges.

Forworkers,thistransformationredefineswhatitmeanstocontribute:lesstaskexecution,morejudgment,creativity,andorchestration.Forleaders,

theshiftisequallyprofound,fromdirectingworkflowstoorchestrating

ecosystems;fromapprovingdecisionstosettingthevaluesandguardrailswithinwhichautonomoussystemsoperate.Rolesaredestinedtochange.Thekeytosuccessfororganizationswillbeintheirabilitytoredesignworkinwaysthatamplifyhumanpotentialratherthandiminishit.

Theeconomiccaseforthistransformationisbothurgentandcompelling.

EmployeedisengagementcoststheglobaleconomyUS$8.8teachyear,

whichrepresentsabout9%ofglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP).1Internal

frictioncostscompaniesanaverageofUS$15,000peremployeeannually,

whiledatasilosalonecauseorganizationstolose20%to30%oftheirrevenuethroughoperationalinefficiencies.2Companiesthatsuccessfullyreducethis

frictionthroughAI-poweredautomationandsmartcontractgovernancereportremarkablereturns:twotothreetimesROIonAIinvestments,35%to50%

operationalcostsavings,andcycletimereductionsof50%to70%.3However,capturingthesegainsrequiresrethinkinghowwemeasurevalueitself,ashiftweexplorelaterin

Theproductivityreset

.

Theeconomiccaseforthesuperfluidenterprise

US$8.8t

Annualglobalcostof

employeedisengagement

20%–30%

Revenuelosttodatasilos

2x–3x

ROIfromAIautomationandsmartcontracts

50%–70%

Cycletimereduction

fromfrictionelimination

US$15,000

Frictioncostper

employee,peryear

SuperfluidenterpriseFuturesReimagined:EYMegatrends2026andbeyond11

03

01

06

02

04

05

07

08

Buildingblocksofthesuperfluidenterprise

Thesuperfluidenterpriserestsonthreecoretechnologiesworkingtogether.

1.AgenticAI

AgenticAIcoordinatescomplex,multi-stepprocessesacrossorganizations.Inthesuperfluidenterprise,these

agentswillunderstandcontext,makedecisionswithinsetparameters,andadapttochangingconditionswithouthumanintervention.CrewAI’senterpriseplatform,nowadoptedby60%ofFortune500companies,allows

AIagentstoworktogetheroncomplexprojects.Teamsreportspending60%moretimeoncreativeproblem-solvingand40%lesstimeonstatusupdatesandadministrativecoordination.4

2.Smartcontracts

Smartcontractsreplacetraditionalcontractsthatrequirehumaninterpretationandenforcement.They

executeautomaticallywhenpredefinedconditionsaremet,enablingbusinessprocessestorunatalgorithmicspeedwithperfectconsistencyandtransparency.Largeorganizations(10,000ormoreemployees)represent60%ofsmartcontractusage,and90%ofglobalorganizationshavestartedadoptingblockchaintechnology.5PowerLedger’sblockchainplatformenablespeer-to-peerenergytradingthroughsmartcontractsthat

automaticallymatchbuyersandsellers,processpayments,andoptimizerenewableenergydistribution,savingparticipants15%to25%onenergycostswhileboostingrenewableenergyusageby40%.6

Thehumanquotient:buildinghybridhuman-AIpartnerships

Themosteffectivetransformationsfocusonformingpartnershipsthatusethesetechnologicalbuildingblockstoenhancehumanabilitiesratherthanreplacingthem.Researchrevealsthatthecombinationofhumans,AI,

andnarrative—thedistinctlyhumanabilitytocreatemeaningandcontext—leadstoa265%boostincreativitycomparedtohumansalone,whileAIaloneachievesjust120%ofhuman-onlyperformance.8Understandinghowtostructurethesepartnershipsisthefocusof

Thehuman-machinehybrid

.

Humanrolesinsuperfluidorganizationscenteronthreecapabilities:

1.Contextengineering:framingproblemssoAIsystemscanfunctioneffectively.

2.Strategicthinking:forinstance,asking“Arewesolvingtherightproblems?”

3.Story-driveninnovation:transformingAI-generatedinsightsintocompellingnarrativesthatmotivateteamsanddrivechange.

Organizationssuccessfullynavigatingthistransitionunderstandthatthegoalisaboutmorethanefficiency

throughreplacement;it’saboutamplificationthroughcollaboration.ThecompaniesthatseethehighestreturnsonAIinvestmentarethosethatredesignworktoleverageuniquelyhumancapabilitieswhilelettingAIhandle

coordination,analysis,andexecutiontasksthatmachinesdomoreeffectively.

“

Thecombinationofhumans,AIandnarrativeleadstoa265%boostincreativitycomparedtohumansalone,whileAIaloneachievesjust120%ofhuman-onlyperformance.

BryanCassady

CEOoftheGlobalEntrepreneurshipAllianceandauthorofTheGenerativeOrganization

3.Digitaltwins

Digitaltwins—dynamicvirtualreplicasofphysicalobjects,processes,orsystems—offerunmatchedtransparencyandcontrolforautonomousoperations.WhenAIagentsrunthevastmajorityofafinancefunction,forinstance,digitaltwinsgeneratereal-time,auditablemodelsofthoseprocesses,maintaininghumanoversighteveninfullyautonomousoperations.Advancedimplementationsalreadyreach90%to95%predictiveaccuracycomparedto60%to70%fortraditionalmonitoringsystems.7

SuperfluidenterpriseFuturesReimagined:EYMegatrends2026andbeyond12

01

Thethreehorizonsoftransformation

Withthesebuildingblocksinplace,organizationscancharttheirpathtowardsuperfluidity.Theevolutiontowardsuperfluidenterprisesprogressesthroughthreedistinctphases,eachbuildingcapabilitiesessentialforthenext.

Horizon1:

Foundationbuilding

OrganizationsdevelopAI-nativecapabilitieswhilemaintaining

familiarbusinessstructures.Thefocusisondeployingthe

buildingblocks,suchasagenticAIpilots,smartcontract

experiments,anddigitaltwinimplementations.Examplesof

successmetricsinclude70%employeeadoptionofAItools,

30%reductioninprocesscycletimes,andover150%ROIon

pilotprograms.Already,78%ofglobalorganizationsuseAIin

atleastonebusinessfunction.9However,mostorganizations

arestillinearlyexperimentation.Thetransformationaheadwilldwarftoday’sadoption.Howorganizationsreachnewthresholdsdependsonaccesstospecializedtalent,anincreasinglyscarce

resourcewedelveintoin

Talentrewritten

.

Horizon2:

Autonomouscoordination

Thisphasemarkstheshiftfrom