2026人工智能经济现状报告 The State of the AI Economy

June25,2026

AzeemAzhar,WilliamGildea,HannahPetrovic,PhD,NathanWarren&MarijaGavrilov

ExponentialView

www.exponentialview.co

IndependentlyproducedbyExponentialView.BuiltfrompublicdisclosuresandExponentialView’sownmodels;allconclusionsareourown.©Epiiplus1Ltd2026

Whywe’vedonethis

ThereisavisibilityproblemintheAIeconomy.Untilnow,ithasbeenimpossibletodeconstructrealcustomerdemand.

ThesupplysideoftheAIeconomyiswell-documented.Mostsemiconductorcompaniesandhyperscalersarepublicanddisclosetheiractivitiesinsomedetail.Sell-sideanalystshavedoneagreatjobdecomposingtheirperformance.

Thedemandside,whatcustomersareactuallypayingforandiftherevenuesarereal,hasbeenobscure.

Thelargestlabsareprivate,andevenpubliccompaniesburyAIrevenueinsidesegmenttotals.

Withoutunderstandinggenuinedemand,itisimpossibletojudgethehealthoftheAIeconomythatunderpins$22.7trillionofstockmarketvaluationandhasdrivenUSGDPgrowthinthepastsixquarters.

Wehopethatthisreportservesasareferencesourceonthecurrentstateofplay,freeofhypeandfear,whilehelpingusallhaveamoreinformedconversationaboutthegravitationalpullAIisexertingontheeconomyandtheworldatlarge.

Specialthankstothosewhokindlyreviewedanearlydraftofthispresentationandgaveusfeedback:

.

AlexImas,ShanuMathew,PatrickRutherford,JaimeSevillaandAmySutter

–AzeemandtheExponentialViewteam

2

Scope:Globalex-China·App,model&infrastructurerevenuecounted·Excludeschips,AIad-uplift,legacy-softwarefeaturesandfinancing.3

›

Aproprietaryline-levelrevenuemodel:Sourced,scored,triangulated,deduplicated

2Confidencescore

1Source

Bottom-up,1,000+firms

Confidence-scoredbeforeitcounts

Everyrevenuelinetracedtoprimary

filings,auditedaccounts,transcriptsandcrediblereporting;pluscloud-attributionwhereaprivatefirm’srevenuesurfacesinapublicfirm’saccounts(OpenAIviaAzure,AnthropicviaBedrock).

Additionalsoftsignalsweuseincludeunofficialsourcessuchas:

●Publiccommentsbyexecutivesandrelatedparties.

●Proxyandsamplemetrics.

●Commentaryandunverifiedestimatesandleaksintraditional,newandsocialmedia.

Weflag,investigateandmaintainour

datasetsusinganalystresearch,

augmentedbyaproprietarysystemthatscans,crawlsandsynthesizesinsights.

Eachlinecarriesarigorousconfidence

scorebeforeitentersanymodel,soweakinputscan’tinflatethenumber.

Wegradefiledfigureshighest,aboveotherprimarysources,corroborated

3rd-partyestimatesandsingle-sourcedclaims.

Allderivednumbersinheritthelowestgradingfrominputsources.

Audittrail:Samplesourcetable

›3

Modeland

triangulate

Companyfinancialmodels

checkedagainsttopdown

Webuildfullper-companymodels

specificallyforGenAIfinancials(splitoutfromtop-linereporting),coveringkey

driversofrevenue,profitabilityandcostintheP&L,cashflowsandbalancesheets.

Thesemodelsarereconciledagainstindependentproxies:silicon

(chip-makerrevenue),buildcost,segmentmix,industryresearch,trafficandcapacity.

Audittrail:Samplecompanyrevenuemodel

›4Deduplicate

Spendonlycountedonce

Revenueiscountedateverylayerbut

neversummedacrossthem:attributedbyvalue-addsothesamedollarisn’tdouble-ortriple-counted.

e.g.$100appspendthatsends$60toamodelprovider,whichspends

$30oninferencehosting,iscountedas$100,not$190:

$100rev.

$40

value-add

$60rev.

$30

value-add

$30rev.$30

value-add

AppsFMlabsHosting

4

Thetopline

AIdemandismoreclearlyvalidatedbyrealizedrevenuethanpreviousplatformshifts.GenerativeAIecosystemrevenuehasalreadysurpassed$175billionannualized(afterremovingdouble-countingfromproviderrevenues).

CapExintensityisgrowingwellabovehistoricallarge-captechnologynormstodelivertheAIbuildout.Andthird-partyfinancingisincreasinglyenteringthefinancingmix.

Theopenquestioniswhethercheapeningartificialintelligencecancreateenoughvolumeandmargintoservicethebuildout.

5

Contents

1

Demand

Real,bigandfast.Externalcustomers,realrevenues,unprecedentedgrowth.

06-18

2

Economy

Bigisstillsmall,andearly.Gainsexist,butthey’reunevenandnotmeasured.

19-26

3

CapEx

Thebiggestbuildoutintechhistoryispayingback(fornow).

27-38

4

Tokens

TheunitofvaluefortheAIeconomy,orisit?

39-51

5

Stack

Wherethevalueiscaptured.Thestackturnscapitalandenergyintocognition.

52-62

6

1|Demand:

It’sreal,big&fast

Revenuesaredrivenbyrealexternalcustomers.

Thesectorisgrowing3xfasterthananyITwavebeforeit.

Thisdemandhascreatedacomputesupercycle:10xmorecompute,newenergygeneration,largerdatacentersandmountingbacklogswheresupplycannotkeepup.

1|Demand:It’sreal,big&fast

$110bntrailing12-monthrevenues–nowata$175bnpace

GenerativeAIeconomyrevenue,deduplicated

$bn/year,Jan2023-Jun2026

$175bn

annualizedrunrate

A

1.6xgap

thespreadreflectsthegrowthrate

$110bn

bankedtrailing

12-monthrevenue

7

Source:ExponentialViewanalysis.

Note:Globalex-China.Deduplicatedapp,foundationmodel,andinfrastructurehostingrevenues.Excludeschipmanufacturing.

8

1|Demand:It’sreal,big&fast

Real,externaldemanddrivesAIrevenues

Illustrationofhowwemodelanddeduplicaterevenuesbetweenproviders

Customer

paysapplicense/fees,orbuystokensdirectly

Notcounted:

Non-AI-nativeapps(Countedviatokenspend)Chipsales(CapExfromhostinglayer)

Aduplift(Google/MetaAIadrevenue)

Wesource,triangulate,model&audittoverify&deduplicate:

Sourcedfromofficialfilings,1st-partydisclosures,leaks,governmentstats,3rd-partyanalysts,andproxymetrics;allsourcesquality-graded.

Rigorouscompany-by-companyfinancialmodelingtobuildabottom-updeduplicatedrevenuemodel.

Continuousscanningandcrawlingacrosshundredsofsourcestomaintainandadjustthedataset.

Open-weightmodels

e.g.Deepseek-v4,MiniMaxM3

Valueadd:$0(revenuecountedinhosting)

Closed-weightmodels

e.g.Opus4.8,GPT-5.5

Valueadd:Revenueminusinferencecosts

StandaloneGenAIapps

e.g.Cursor,OpenRouter,Harvey

Valueadd:Revenueminustokencosts

Modellab’sapps

e.g.ClaudeCode,Codex

Valueadd:Revenueminustokencosts

Hostinglayer

e.g.Azure,CoreWeave,Nebius

$:AIrevenues(full)

Foundationmodellayer

Revenues

flowdown

thestack

Applayer

9

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;USCommerce;companyfilings;UBS;USBureauofLaborStatistics.Note:Weusethefirstfullyearofrevenues,sohavestartedGenAImeasurementfromJanuary2023.

1|Demand:It’sreal,big&fast

AIisscalingthreetimesfasterthananyITwave

Realizedrevenuetrajectorytime-alignedtoyearzero

$bn/year,adjustedforinflation

A

3xfaster

thananypriorwave

IndexingGenAIgrowthto

pasttechnologywavesrisksunderstatingitsspeed

whenmodeling:

-Demandprojection

-Depreciationschedules

-CapExpaybacks

10

Source:ExponentialViewanalysis.

Note:Globalex-China.Deduplicatedapp,foundationmodel,andinfrastructurehostingrevenues.Excludeschipmanufacturing.

1|Demand:It’sreal,big&fast

Eachnew$1billionofrevenuearrivesfasterthanthelast

Timetoadd$1bnadditionalcumulativerevenue

days,logscale

In2023,theAIindustryneeded180daystoadd$1billionincumulativerevenue.

Itnowneedslessthantwodays.

90xfaster

Source:ExponentialViewanalysis.11

1|Demand:It’sreal,big&fast

Growthhasheldacrosseachadoptionphase

Revenuegrowthquarter-on-quarter

%changesincepriorquarter

ChatbotSubscriptionEra

AgenticCodingEra

Codexlaunch

OpenClawgoesviral

35%QoQ

Claude

Enterpriselaunches

ChatGPTTeamlaunches

ClaudeCodereleased

equivalentto

3.2xannually

1|Demand:It’sreal,big&fast

Thisrapiddemandgrowthisshowingasacontractbacklogforhyperscalers

Combinedhyperscalerbacklog(remainingperformanceobligations)

$b

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;companyfilings.

n

12

Note:Microsoft=totalRPO(incl.M365/Dynamics);Amazon=totalcompanyRPO(mostlyAWS);Google=revenuebacklog(mostlyCloud).Oraclequarterendsonemonthearlier.

Sources:Exponential

.13

Viewanalysis;WorldSemiconductorTradeStatistics;JapaneseSemiconductorHistoryMuseumofJapan

Note:Nominal$US

1|Demand:It’sreal,big&fast

Demandhaslaunchedacomputesupercycle

Globalsemiconductormarketrevenues

$bn/year

on:

WSTS2026projecti

1|Demand:It’sreal,big&fast

AIhasspurredanuptickina50-yeartrendofcomputegrowth

Globalcomputesince1971

FL

OPS

80%

CAGR

66%

CAGR

14

Source:ExponentialViewanalysis.

Note:Includesmainframes,minicomputers,PCs,servers,smartphones,IoTandAIcompute.AI-serverFLOPSderivedfromtheinstalledbaseofNvidiaGPUsbygeneration,usingFP8fromHopperonward.

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;USEnergyInformationAdministration.15

1|Demand:It’sreal,big&fast

AIdemandisreignitingamoribundUSpowersector

USelectricitynetgeneration

TWh/month

2008-2024:±0growth

1950-2008:+6TWh/monthannualgrowth

2024-today:

+9TWh/month

annualgrowth

1|Demand:It’sreal,big&fast

Thesizeofthelargestdatacentershasgrown50xinfouryears

Powerofthemostpowerfulcomputersovertime

MWll

16Note:Rainierfullbuildisatarget.

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;TOP500/Green500;EpochAI;OpenAI;Oracle.

,ogscae

1|Demand:It’sreal,big&fast

Memoryandcomputenowtakeamajorityofeverydollarspentonthedatacenterbuildout

Shareoftotaldatacenterbuildcostbycomponent,2021vs2026E

%

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;GoldmanSachs;EpochAI;SemiAnalysis.

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%becauseofrounding.

●Eachnewdollarbuysmoresiliconandlessconcrete:chips’shareofspendisup50%(40%→60%).

●Memoryisthesinglebiggestmover,froma2%roundingerrorto~18%.

17

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;GridStrategies;Nvidiafilings.18

1|Demand:It’sreal,big&fast

Leadingtogrowingcommitmentsforcomputeandenergy

Compute&powercommitments

Nvidiasupplycommitments($bnleftaxis)&USload-growth(GWrightaxis)

vidiasupplycommitmentsavegrownfrom$31bnto95bninthelastyear.

heextraelectricitytheUSridisexpectedtoneedby030hasgrown~7xsince022(24GW→166GW),withatacentersaccountingfor55%ofthisgrowth.

●N

h

$

●T

g

2

2

d

~

,,

19

2|Economy:

Bigisstillsmall,andearly

Evenforthehighestcorporatespenders,AIisaroundingerrorintheP&L.Itstilllooksearly.Initiativeshavefocusedonefficiency&cost

savings,althoughthemixischanging.Andmeasuredrevenuemayunderstatethesocialgains,asconsumersreportbenefitsthatdon’tyetshowupin

thedata.

2|Economy:Bigisstillsmall,andearly

AgainstGDP,AIrevenueisstillaroundingerror

GlobalAIrevenues(ex.China),relativetoUSGDP,laborcosts&corporateprofits

%

3.0%

Profits

0.8%

Labor

0.4%

GDP

●Stilltiny:AIrevenueis

equivalentto0.42%ofUSGDP(vsITsector’s9.4%).

●Evenagenerousyardstick

(corporateprofits)is32x

largerthanallGenAIrevenues.

●Stillearly:AIrevenuerelativetoGDPhasrisen3xvsQ1

..

2025(0.13%),and10xvsQ12024(004%)

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;St.LouisFed.20

2|Economy:Bigisstillsmall,andearly

Atacompanylevel,AIspendingisstillrelativelysmall:e.g.Uber’s$1.5kperengineerbarelydentstheP&L

UberAIspend(maxedcap)vsP&Llineitems

$/year(AIspend%),logscale,vsFY2025

AIspendperemployee

$/month,logscale,RampcustomersvsUbercap

$90m

$720m(12%)

$3.4bn(2.6%)

$14bn(0.6%)

$8.7bn(1.0%)

$52bn

(0.2%)

$1.5kper-engineercaproughlyputsUberinthetop10%of

per-employeeAIspend

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;RampEconomicsLab(n=70,000USbusinesses),Uberfilings.

Note:Top1%/top10%/mediandefinedbylevelofAIspendcomparedacrossRamp’scustomerbase.Uberfigureisamaxper-engineercap,benchmarkedagainstRampper-employeeAIspend.

21

2|Economy:Bigisstillsmall,andearly

Likepreviousgeneral-purposetechnologies,somegainsmayescapeGDPmeasurement

Consumersurplus

Valuethatreachespeopledirectlyatanear-zeroprice.Littleissold,soGDP

under-representsconsumerbenefit,e.g.:

●Freereplacementofsoftware&servicepurchases

●Learning,leisure&convenience

AIimpacts

Historiccases

1880-1920:Electriclighting

Lightbecame~99.97%cheaper:

anhour’swagebuys~40,000xmore.Pricesdidn’trecordthisgain.

≈$0

directGDPimpact

Nordhaus(1996)

2000-2020:Freedigitalgoods

Freesearch,encyclopaediasandmapsdisplacedpaidservices.Searchaloneisworth~$17.5k/yr/person.

≈$0

directGDPimpact

Brynjolfssonetal.(2019)

Producersurplus

Valueembeddedinsoldgoodsandservices.MoreistransactedandrecordedinGDP,e.g:

●AI-enabledfeaturesthatdriverevenue

●Faster(valuable)releases

●Servicefirmmargins

+0.4

1850-1870:Steam

pp/yrGDP

Mechanizedfactoriesandrailways,sooneworkercouldproduceandmovefarmoretomarket.

Crafts(2004)

+0.37

1980-2000:Automation

pp/yrGDP

Programmablemachinetoolscutlaborineveryunit,raisingoutputperworker.

Graetz&Michaels(2018)

22

2|Economy:Bigisstillsmall,andearly

GDPknowsthepriceofeverythingbutthevalueofnothing.AI’seconomicvalueexceedsmeasuredrevenue

MonthlyGenAIrevenuesvsUSconsumerwelfare

$bn/month,Jul2024-Mar2026

$3-4bnconsumersurplus

(+30%onrevenues)

Consumerwelfare:What

valuedoconsumersplaceonAI?

Revenue:HowmuchisspentonAI?

23

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;StanfordDigitalEconomyLab

Note:Welfarevaluedeterminedfromresponsesto“WouldyougiveupaccesstoallAItoolslikeChatGPT,Gemini,Claude,orCopilotforonemonthstartingtomorrowmorninginexchangefor[$US]?”.Revenueincludesglobal(ex-China)consumerandenterprisespend.

2|Economy:Bigisstillsmall,andearly

PubliccompaniesarereportingincreasedimpactofGenAI

CompaniesmakingclaimsofAIimpactonearningscalls

S&P500,Q42022-Q12026

●Growingattention:FirmsseeAIasanopportunitytoimproveearnings.Wetrackeda3-4xriseinmentionsofAI’simpactacrosstheS&P500since2023.

●Putanumbertoit:50-60%of

claimsarenowquantified,butTBDhowlargeandmeaningfultheseareforcompanies’bottomline.

●Stillaminority:AmajorityoffirmshavenotyetreportedaquantifiedimpactfromAIuse.

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;earningscalls.24

2|Economy:Bigisstillsmall,andearly

SevenintenGenAIclaimsfocusoncostsavingsorefficiency

ClaimedAIoutcomes

S&P500,Q42022-Q12026

Throughput

increase:22%

Timesavings:23%

Costreduction:25%

Revenuegain:6%Conversion

improvement:7%Quality

improvement:18%

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;earningscalls.

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%becauseofrounding.

Whyinitialprojectsprioritizeefficiency,anillustrativeexample:

Thesamepure$1mimpacthas4ppbetterprofitmarginfromsavingsvssalesgrowth

-$1mcosts

TODAY

30%netmargin

$10mrevenue•$7mcost$3mprofit

COSTSAVINGS

40%netmargin

$10mrevenue•$6mcost$4mprofit

SALESGROWTH

+$1m36%netmarginrevenue

$11mrevenue•$7mcost$4mprofit

25

Note:Forillustrativepurposes,revenueisaddedat$0cost.Addingcosts-of-saleswoulddampenmargingrowthfurther.

2|Economy:Bigisstillsmall,andearly

Asinpriorwaves,earlyadoptersareoutgrowingtheirpeers

Thehistoriccasestudy:

Firm-levelemploymentwith/withoutautomation%change2000-2016

TheAIeconomytoday:

RevenuegrowthwithhighvsnoAIusage%changesinceNov2022

Δ37%

A

Δ92%

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;

Bessen,Goos,Salomons&VandenBerge(2020):

“WhatHappenstoWorkersatFirmsthatAutomate?”.

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;RampEconomicsLab(n=70,000USbusinesses).

Note:Highintensity=Top25%AIspendersbyshareofrevenue.

26

27

3|CapEx:

Thelargestbuildoutintechhistoryispayingback(fornow)

Hyperscalers&neocloudshavecommittedto$2trillionofcumulativeCapExto2026,puttingpressureongrowingrevenuestopayback,especiallyas

moreisfundedbyexternalcapital.Theseeconomicssetthetonefordatacenterandtokenproductionfinances.

3|CapEx:Thelargestbuildoutintechispayingback(fornow)

HyperscalerandneocloudCapExreaches$2Tcumulativelythrough2026E

$bn,PP&E+

HyperscalerandneocloudCapEx

leases

TotalCapEx≠AICapEx.

Announcednumbers

includepre-planned

CapExforexistingcloud&SaaSbusinesses,

metaverse(Meta),andlogistics(Amazon)

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;companyfilings.

Note:2026isbasedonguidancevalues.Oracleusesa5/12:7/12splitbasedonFY2026reportedandFY2027guidancevalues.

28

3|CapEx:Thelargestbuildoutintechispayingback(fornow)

AI-linkedCapExadds$535bnabovethepre-AItrendby2026E

AnnualCapExperindustry

$

$535bnabovepre-AItrend

bn

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;Hyperscalerearnings&guidance;UStelecom&carrierguidance;TheInternationalEnergyAgency.29

3|CapEx:Thelargestbuildoutintechispayingback(fornow)

ForecastshavechasedtheCapExcurvehigher

$/ear

Hyperscaler/AIinfraCapExforecastsbyanalystandforecastdate

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;Barclays,Citi,GoldmanSachs,JPMorgan,MorganStanley,NewStreetResearch,SemiAnalysis,UBS;

y

companyfilings.

30

Note:Forecastersuseslightlydifferentbaskets(theBigFivehyperscalersvsbroaderAIinfrastructure).ActualsherecorrespondtothecashCapEx(purchasesofpropertyandequipment)forMicrosoft,Alphabet,Amazon,Meta,Oracle,CoreWeave,andNebius.

3|CapEx:Thelargestbuildoutintechispayingback(fornow)

ThemarginalAI-infradollarisincreasinglyexternallyfinanced

HyperscalerandneocloudCapExbyfundingsource

$,2020-2026E

Externalfunding

movesrisk

outsidefirms,

asthird-parties

expectrepayment

Payingcashkeepsabadbetinsidethefirm,only

dentingprofits

CapExbyfundingsource

%,2020-2026Etotal

Hyperscaler

CapExprimarily

cash,butrisktowidereconomy

fromtheirmarketcapweight

vsrestofmarket

NeocloudCapEx

primarily

debt-funded

Sources:Exponential

Note:Debtisnetof

Operatingcashflow

Leases

Debt(netnew)

Equity

Viewanalysis;companyfilings.

repayments(notgrossissuance)andincludesalldebtinstruments(bonds,commercialpaper,etc.).

Cash31

Source:ExponentialViewanalysis.

Note:ITequipmentisdepreciatedover6years,andbuildingsover14years.RequiredrevenuevaluesexcludeOpEx.32

Headroomistheportionofrevenuebeyondthatrequiredtomeetthedepreciationexpense.

3|CapEx:Thelargestbuildoutintechispayingback(fornow)

The2026Edepreciationchargeapproaches$111billion

CapExisexpensed

throughdepreciation

overtheassets’useful

CapExisspentthroughouttheyear(notallon1stJan),sothefulldepreciation

chargedoesn’thitfullyinyear1

life.Sothecostis

spreadanddoesn’t

needtoberecognized

instantly

A

3|CapEx:Thelargestbuildoutintechispayingback(fornow)

Revenuescovertheongoingexpense,notyetthecumulativebill

CumulativeAIrevenues&CapExdepreciation

$bn,hyperscalers&neocloudsonly

QuarterlyAIrevenues&CapExdepreciation

$bn/quarter,hyperscalers&neocloudsonly

Q42025:QuarterlyrevenuesfirstexceedCapExdepreciation

Still~half-covered:cumulativerevenuehasnearlycoveredcumulativedepreciation,butstillhastocovertheexpectedheadroom

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;companyfilings.

Note:MetacontributestoindustryCapExbutinitiativesarefocusedonaduplift,sonotrecognizedaspureGenAIrevenue,orcurrentlyhaveminimaldirectmonetization(e.g.MetaAIassistant,MuseSpark).

33

compressagain.

Source:ExponentialViewanalysis.34

3|CapEx:Thelargestbuildoutintechispayingback(fornow)

AIinfrarevenuenowjustclearstoday’sdepreciationhurdle

HeadroomafterquarterlyCapExdepreciation

%=(Revenue–Depreciation)÷Revenue

A

Q42025:Quarterlyrevenuesfirst

exceedCapExdepreciation

AllGenAIrevenues

32%

19%

Hyperscaler&

neocloud

revenuesonly

●GenAIrevenuesnowcoverthequarterlydepreciationofAI

infrastructure.Q126headroomreached19%for

hyperscaler/neocloudrevenues

and32%acrossallGenAIrevenues.

●Coverageremainsthin.Depreciationabsorbsroughly81%of

hyperscaler/neocloudGenAIrevenueand68%oftotalGenAIrevenue

beforeadditionalcosts.

●Thenexttestisincremental

coverage.AscommittedAIcapex

entersservice,thedepreciationbasewillrise.Revenuegrowth,utilizationandpricingmustcontinueto

compoundorheadroomwill

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;SemiAnalysis.35

3|CapEx:Thelargestbuildoutintechispayingback(fornow)

Rentalratessuggestdemandisabsorbingexistingsupply

H1001-yearrentalcontractprice

$/hour/GPU.H100isthemostliquid,most-tradedGPUinthemerchantmarket:ausefulsignal.

d

$3.05:Launch-erascarcitypremium

$2.40:Surginginferencedeman

$1.70:PeakoverbuildfearsasBlackwellships

3|CapEx:Thelargestbuildoutintechispayingback(fornow)

Datacentereconomicssetthehurdlefortokenpricing

$7.9bn

annualcosttoownandoperate1GWofAIcapacity

Capitalcosts$7.0bn/year·89%

65%

Servers$4.6bn

480,000GPUsin6,700systems·6-yearlife

Facility$1.4bn

Buildingshell,power&cooling·14-yearlife

DCnetwork$1.0bn

Switching&interconnectfabric·6-yearlife

20%

Land+utility$33m

Landatcostofcapital·utility14-yearlife

OpEx$900m/year·11%

66%Energy$594m

Electricitytorunthefleet·66%ofOpEx

OtherOpEx$308m

Staff,maintenance&overhead

●KimiK2.5(1T)●Kimi-classmodelunderclosedlicensing(illustrative)

DIVIDE$7.9bn/yrBYTOKENOUTPUT:

÷TOKENSPERGW/YEAR

75-85quadrillion

per1mtokens

=COSTFORINFERENCEPROVIDER

$0.10$0.42

$0.32licensingfee(~25%oftheblendedsellingpriceof$1.29)

REQUIREDPRICEFOR50-75%GROSS

MARGIN:

$0.20–$0.40$0.84–$1.68

per1mtokens

per1mtokens

REQUIREDCUSTOMERVALUEFOR25%ROI

$0.25–$0.50$1.05–$2.10

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;EpochAI;SemiAnalysis.

36

Note:Illustrativemodel.1GWofITcapacity(6.7kGB200NVL72systems,480kGPUs),costofownershipperEpochAI(May2026),annualizedincl.costofcapital,6-yearITlife.TokenoutputfromSemiAnalysisInferenceX:FP4,8k-in/1k-out,50tokens/sec/user,65%utilization(Apr2026).Tokenoutputrangereflects+10-25%throughputupliftfromspeculativedecoding.Open-weightmodelsincurnomodel-licensingfee.Closed-weightcolumnaddsa25%licensingfeeofKimi’s$1.29blendedprice.

3|CapEx:Thelargestbuildoutintechispayingback(fornow)

Grossrentalyieldssuggestusefullivesextendpastsixyears

GPUyieldat50%utilization

《

%,excludesOpEx

NewerGPUsearnyieldswellabove depreciationcharge

Depreciationcharge(6-year):17%

Yearssincerelease:

1yr3yr4yr6yr7yr8yr9yr

OlderGPUs

earnyieldslongbeyondtheir

six-year

depreciationlife

After6years,

chipCapExfullydepreciated

37

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;SiliconData.

Note:Yield=(On-demandratex50%utilizationx8760hours)÷originallistprice.

3|CapEx:Thelargestbuildoutintechispayingback(fornow)

LongerGPUusefullifestretchesheadroom

RangeofheadroomafterCapExperchipdepreciationschedule

Q12026,3-9-yearschedules,%=(Revenue–Depreciation)÷Revenue

MarkZuckerberg

MetaQ32025earningscall

“...thekindofveryworstcasewouldbethatweeffectivelyhavejustprebuiltforacoupleofyears,inwhichcase,ofcourse,therewouldbesomelossand

depreciation,butwe’dgrowintothatanduseitovertime.”

Overbuildcanbeabetonlongerchipdepreciation

Chipdepreciationschedule

3y4y5y6y7y8y9y

Atstandard6-yearchiplife,Q12026

infrastructurerevenueheadroomis19%

Ifchiplifeisshorter,revenuesdon’t

repayCapEx(thiswouldrequireinitialH100purchasesbecomingobsoletetoday)

Extendingusefulchiplifeboostsmargins:

Usingchipsfor8years(asoldasT4s)raisesinfrastructureheadroomto36%

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis;Meta.

Note:Buildingsdepreciatedover14yearsasconstant.

Headroom(infrastructurerevenuesonly)Headroom(wholemarketrevenues)38

39

4|Tokens:

TheunitofvaluefortheAIeconomy?

Tokenvolumesaregrowing14xannually,propelledbyagenticworkloadsandhighlyelasticdemand.Token-basedpricinghasmadethisespecially

pertinent,butitalsorepresentsanopportunityfortheindustrytoattributeandevaluatetheoutputfromtokenconsumption.

40

“Theinputiselectrons,theoutputistokens.InthemiddleisNvidia.”

–JensenHuang

“Tokens,thefundamentalunitsofdataourmodelsprocess…”

–SundarPichai

IstheGenAIeconomyatokeneconomy?

Sortof.

41

Sources:ExponentialViewanalysis.

Note:Global,inc.China

4|Tokens:TheunitofvaluefortheAIeconomy?

Globaltokenvolumesexceed30Q/month,growing14xYoY

Inferencetokensprocessed

Quadrilliontokenspermonth(leftaxis),growthratemultiple(rightaxis)

Jan23Apr23Jul23Oct23Jan24Apr24Jul24