德银-化工行业：中东冲突爆发以来的涨跌梳理基本面回归冲突前水平蕴含潜在机遇-What's Up,What's Down Since the Middle East Conflict Began-20260702

DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.

IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

【价值目录】网整理：

DeutscheBankResearch

NorthAmerica

Chemicals

Industry

Chemicals

What'sUp,What'sDownSincetheMiddleEastConflictBegan

Potentialopportunitiesasunderlyingconditionsreturntopre-conflictlevels

WiththeMiddleEastconflictlargelyoverandtheStraitofHormuzopening/open,wehavelookedatthesharepricesofUSandEuropeanchemicalandagriculturecompaniestoseehowtheyhaveperformedsincetheconflictbegan4monthsago.

Withoilpricesslightlybelowpre-conflictlevelsandglobaldemandsimilartowhatitwasheadingintotheconflict(subdued),onecouldascribetothetheorythatnotwithstandingthesignificantdisruptiontoenergyandchemicalproductionandexportsfromthePersianGulfandspikeinoilpricescausedbytheconflict,notmuchhaschangedsincetheconflictbeganinlateFebruary,exceptperhapsinterestrateassumptions.Andifthatisthecase,onecouldalsoassumethatsharespricesofUSandEuropeanchemicalandagriculturecompaniesshouldhavelargelyreturnedtotheirpre-conflictlevels,orclosetothem.

WhilethisisthecaseforsomeUSandEuropeanchemicalandagriculturecompanies,thisisnotthecaseforallofthem.Whilesomeofthiscanbeexplainedbyidiosyncraticandindustryfactors(e.g.AirProductsandthecancellationofitsLouisianaproject;Cabotandheightenedinterestintheirbatterymaterialsbusiness;Electronicmaterialcompanies(ENTG,ESI,Q)andtheAI/DataCenterbuildout;housing-relatednames(SHW,WLK)andtheincreaseininterestrateassumptions),forthecompaniesthatdonothavethesefactorsandwhosesharepriceshavenotreturnedtotheirpre-conflict(2/27/26)levels,webelievetherecouldbesomenear-termopportunitiesuntilthesesharesreverttomorenormalizedlevels.Inthisgroup,companieswithsharepricesmeaningfullybelowtheirpre-conflictlevelsincludeDOW(12%),ECL(10%)andAVNT(10%),LYB(9%)andCE(9%).

Date

2July2026

DavidBegleiter

ResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-5473

EmilyFusco

ResearchAssociate+1-212-250-5162

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Figure1:SharePricePerformanceSincetheStartoftheMiddelEastConflict(2/27/26-7/01/26)

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

Bysub-sector,wenotethefollowing:

CommodityChemicals(DOW,LYB,MEOH,OLN,WLK):ThisgroupwasoneofthelargestbeneficiariesoftheMiddleEastconflictwithsharepricesofDowandLyondellup36%and43%,respectively,inthefirstmonthoftheconflict.However,withconflictendingandthestraitreopening,sharepriceshavereversedwithDowandLyondellshares12%and9%,respectively,belowtheirpre-conflictlevels,respectively.TheoutlierinthisgroupisWestlakewhosesharesaredown31%sincetheconflictbeganduetoconcernsoverthehousingcycleowingtotheaforementionedchangeininterestrateexpectationsoverthepastfewmonths.

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Figure2:CommodityChemicalsPerformance(02/27/26-7/01/26)

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

DifferentiatedChemicals(CE,EMN,HUN):ThisgroupwasalsoviewedasbeneficiariesoftheMiddleEastconflictwithsharepricesofCelanese,andHuntsmanup39%and26%,respectively,inthefirstcoupleofmonthsoftheconflict.However,withconflictendingandthestraitreopening,sharepriceshavereversedwithCelaneseshares9%andHuntsmanshares17%,respectively,belowtheirpre-conflictlevels–withHuntsmansharespressuredaswellbytheirannouncedmergerofequalswithOlin.

Figure3:DifferentiatedChemicalsPerformance(02/27/26-7/01/26)

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

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CoatingsandAdhesives(AXTA,FUL,PPG,RPM,SHW):Thisgroupwasviewedasoneofthemostimpactedbytheconflictduetotheirrelianceonoil-basedrawmaterials.Asaresult,sharepricesfellacrossthegroupwithSHWdown16%,PPGdown21%,RPMdown18%,AXTAdown24%andFULdown25%inthefirstmonthoftheconflict.However,withoilpricesnowslightlybelowpre-conflict,paints,andcoatingssharepriceshavelargelyreturnedtotheirconflictlevels,withonlySHW(down5%)somewhatbelowtheirpre-conflicttotheaforementionedconcernsaroundthehousingcycle.WealsonotethatwhileFullersharesare13%belowtheirpre-conflictlevel,thisisduetoanidiosyncraticfactor–investor’spoorreceptionofarecentlyannouncedmedicaladhesivesacquisition.

Figure4:CoatingsAdhesivesPerformance(02/27/26-7/01/26)

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

IndustrialGasCompanies(LIN,APD,AIRP.PA):Showingtheirresilienceanddefensivegrowthcharacteristicsaswellastheirincreasingexposuretogrowingelectronicsandspacemarkets,Lindesharesareup5%sincetheconflictbeganwhileAirProductssharesareup11%andAirLiquidesharesareup9%.TherelativeoutperformanceofAirProductsversusLindehasbeendrivenbythewell-receivedcancellationoftheirLouisianacleanenergyproject.

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Figure5:IndustrialGasPerformance(02/27/26-7/01/26)

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

Ingredients,AdditivesandFlavorsandFragrancesCompanies(IFF,ASH,Givaudan,Symrise):Sharesofhigh-endingredientsandflavorsandfragrancescompanieswereinitiallyhithardbytheconflictduetoconcernsoverreducedluxurygoodsdemandandtravelactivity.Asaresult,sharesofGivaudan,SymriseandIFFfell15%,11%and19%,respectivelyinthemonthaftertheconflictbegan.However,withconflictending,thesesharepricedeclineshavereversed.Interestinglythough,whileGivaudanandSymriseare11%and15%,respectively,abovetheirpre-conflictlevel,IFFsharesarestillslightly(1%)below.

Figure6:Ingredients&AdditivesPerformance(02/27/26-7/01/26)

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

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SpecialtyChemicals(CBT,SOLS,KWR,ASH,ECL,AVNT):Withmostspecialtychemicalcompanieslargepurchasersofcommoditychemicalsandwithalagoftheirsellingpricesincreaseversusrisinginputcosts,coupledwitheconomicallysensitivedemand,thesharepricesofthesecompanieswereinitiallynegativelyimpactedbythestartoftheconflict.Asaresult,sharepricesofEcolabfell17%,Avientfell22%andQuakerHoughtonfell22%inthefirstmonthoftheconflict.

Whileall3companieshaveseenmeaningfulrecoveriesintheirsharepricesastheconflicthaswindedendedandoilpriceshavemovedlower,thesharepricesofallEcolabandAvientarestill10%belowtheirpre-conflictlevelswhileQuakersharesare10%abovetheirpre-conflictlevels.

Figure7:SpecialtyChemicalsPerformance(02/27/26-7/01/26)

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

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Performance(2/27/26-7/01/26)

Figure8:SpecialtyChemicalPerformance

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

Figure9:Ingredients&AdditivesPerformance

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

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Figure10:ElectronicMaterialsPerformance

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

Figure11:ChemicalDistributorPerformance

ource:loomberginance

SBFLP

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Figure12:Coatings&AdhesivesPerformance

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

Figure13:IndustrialGasesPerformance

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

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Figure14:DifferentiatedChemicalsPerformance

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

Figure15:CommodityChemicalsPerformance

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

Figure16:TiO2Performance

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

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Figure17:AgriculturePerformance

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

Figure18:FertilizerPerformance

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

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Appendix1

ImportantDisclosures

Company

Ticker

Recentprice

Disclosure

Avient

AVNT.N

36.82(USD)1Jul26

7,8,14,15,24,26

Celanese

CE.N

45.20(USD)1Jul26

1,2,7,8,14,15,24,26

Dow

DOW.N

27.02(USD)1Jul26

2,8,14,15,24

Ecolab

ECL.N

278.37(USD)1Jul26

2

LyondellBasell

LYB.N

52.58(USD)1Jul26

1,2,7,14,15,21,24,26

PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subject

companies,andothersources.Fordisclosurespertainingtorecommendationsorestimatesmadeonsecuritiesotherthantheprimarysubjectofthisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedcompanyreportorvisitourglobal

disclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteat

/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures

.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundat

/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer

.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting.

ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.Regulators

1-Withinthepastyear,DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)hasmanagedorco-managedapublicofferingforthiscompany,forwhichitreceivedfees.

2-DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)mayactasamarketmakerorliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstrumentsissuedbythiscompany.

7-DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)hasreceivedcompensationfromthiscompanyfortheprovisionofinvestmentbankingorfinancialadvisoryserviceswithinthepastyear.

8-DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)expectstoreceive,orintendstoseek,compensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromthiscompanyinthenextthreemonths.

14-DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)hasreceivedcompensationfromthiscompanywithinthepastyearfornon-investmentbankingrelatedservices.

15-ThiscompanyhasbeenaclientofDeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.withinthepastyearduringwhichtimeitreceivedinvestmentbankingservices.

21-ThiscompanyhasbeenaclientofDeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.withinthepastyear,duringwhichtimeitreceivednon-investmentbankingsecurities-relatedservices.

ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.Regulators

1-Withinthepastyear,DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)hasmanagedorco-managedapublicofferingforthiscompany,forwhichitreceivedfees.

>

AnalystCertification

Theviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectthepersonalviewsoftheundersignedleadanalyst(s).Inaddition,theundersignedleadanalyst(s)hasnotandwillnotreceiveanycompensationforprovidingaspecificrecommendationorviewinthisreport.DavidBegleiter,EmilyFusco.

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2July2026Chemicals

Historicalrecommendationsandtargetprices

Avient(AVNT.N)

1.27Jul23

Pricetarget:46.00(USD),Analyst:DavidHuang**

close

price

40.00(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

2.6Nov23

Pricetarget:37.00(USD),Analyst:DavidHuang**

close

price

32.44(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

3.14Feb24

Pricetarget:42.00(USD),Analyst:DavidHuang**

close

price

38.87(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

4.8May24

Pricetarget:49.00(USD),Analyst:DavidHuang**

close

price

45.12(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

5.7Aug24

Pricetarget:52.00(USD),Analyst:DavidHuang**

close

price

43.43(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

6.5Dec24

Pricetarget:57.00(USD),Analyst:DavidHuang**

close

price

49.91(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

7.21Jan25

Pricetarget:45.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

43.18(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

8.13Feb25

Pricetarget:50.00(USD),Analyst:DavidHuang**

close

price

42.95(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

9.21Apr25

Pricetarget:40.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

30.78(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

10.27May25

Pricetarget:42.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

37.28(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

11.18Jul25

Pricetarget:40.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

32.50(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

12.13Aug25

Pricetarget:42.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

36.26(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

13.7Nov25

Pricetarget:36.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

29.70(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

14.2Mar26

Pricetarget:46.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

40.88(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

15.20May26

Pricetarget:42.00(USD),Analyst:EmilyFusco

close

price

33.82(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

**AnalystisnolongeratDeutscheBank

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Celanese(CE.N)

1.18Jul23

Pricetarget:125.00(USD),closeprice123.63(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Hold,

2.11Aug23

Pricetarget:135.00(USD),closeprice126.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Hold,

3.8Nov23

Pricetarget:125.00(USD),closeprice117.99(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Hold,

4.23Feb24

Pricetarget:160.00(USD),closeprice149.38(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Hold,

5.10May24

Pricetarget:172.00(USD),closeprice156.69(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Hold,

6.10Jun24

Pricetarget:160.00(USD),closeprice144.94(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Hold,

7.12Aug24

Pricetarget:135.00(USD),closeprice125.19(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Hold,

8.6Nov24

Pricetarget:110.00(USD),closeprice92.44(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Buy,

9.21Jan25

Pricetarget:85.00(USD),closeprice74.02(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Buy,

10.20Feb25

Pricetarget:70.00(USD),closeprice52.61(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Buy,

11.26Mar25

Pricetarget:75.00(USD),closeprice59.16(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Buy,

12.7May25

Pricetarget:60.00(USD),closeprice48.45(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Buy,

13.13Aug25

Pricetarget:52.00(USD),closeprice41.80(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Buy,

14.19Feb26

Pricetarget:62.00(USD),closeprice54.92(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Buy,

15.20Apr26

Pricetarget:74.00(USD),closeprice63.57(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

Recommendation:Buy,

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2July2026Chemicals

Dow(DOW.N)

1.25Oct23

Pricetarget:58.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

47.54(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

2.10Jan24

Pricetarget:58.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

53.38(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

3.26Apr24

Pricetarget:60.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

57.29(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

4.26Jul24

Pricetarget:57.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

52.86(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

5.12Sep24

Pricetarget:53.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

50.26(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

6.14Oct24

Pricetarget:55.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

53.54(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

7.25Oct24

Pricetarget:53.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

49.70(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

8.9Jan25

Pricetarget:44.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

38.92(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

9.31Jan25

Pricetarget:42.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

39.05(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

10.13Mar25

Pricetarget:40.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

36.23(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

11.7Apr25

Pricetarget:30.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

27.52(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

12.25Apr25

Pricetarget:32.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

30.02(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

13.3Jul25

Pricetarget:30.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

28.46(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

14.25Jul25

Pricetarget:27.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

25.51(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

15.11Aug25

Pricetarget:22.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

20.87(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

16.24Oct25

Pricetarget:26.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

24.81(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

17.17Dec25

Pricetarget:25.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

close

price

23.07(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

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2July2026Chemicals

18.2Feb26

Pricetarget:28.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice28.88(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

19.20Apr26

Pricetarget:38.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice36.77(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

20.24Apr26

Pricetarget:40.00(USD),Analyst:EmilyFusco

closeprice38.66(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

21.10Jun26

Pricetarget:36.00(USD),Analyst:Karlvan-den-Berg

closeprice34.24(USD),

Recommendation:

Hold,

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Ecolab(ECL.N)

1.2Aug23

Pricetarget:200.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice184.91(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

2.15Sep23

Pricetarget:195.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice177.96(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

3.1Nov23

Pricetarget:180.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice167.21(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

4.14Feb24

Pricetarget:230.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice216.97(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

5.1May24

Pricetarget:240.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice224.98(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

6.30Jul24

Pricetarget:245.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice228.86(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

7.30Oct24

Pricetarget:270.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice252.60(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

8.12Feb25

Pricetarget:285.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice262.03(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

9.1May25

Pricetarget:270.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice252.62(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

10.30Jul25

Pricetarget:275.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice263.13(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

11.8Sep25

Pricetarget:285.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice275.35(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

12.13Feb26

Pricetarget:325.00(USD),Analyst:DavidBegleiter

closeprice299.17(USD),Recommendation:Hold,

13.20Apr26

Pricetarget:325.00(USD),Analyst:EmilyFusco

closeprice275.68(USD),Recommendation:Buy,

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LyondellBasell(LYB.N)

1.19Sep23

Pricetarget:115.00(USD),closeprice97.91(USD),Recommendation:Buy,Analyst:DavidBegleiter

2.30Oct23

Pricetarget:105.00(USD),closeprice90.60(USD),Recommendation:Buy,Analyst:DavidBegleiter

3.10Jan24

Pricetarget:105.00(USD),closeprice94.33(USD),Recommendation:Hold,Analyst:DavidBegleiter

4.5Feb24

Pricetarget:100.00(USD),closeprice93.15(USD),Recommendation:Hold,Analyst:DavidBegleiter

5.30Apr24

Pricetarget:105.00(USD),closeprice99.97(USD),Recommendation:Hold,Analyst:DavidBegleiter

6.6Aug24

Pricetarget:100.00(USD),closeprice95.56(USD),Recommendation:Hold,Analyst:DavidBegleiter

7.4Nov24

Pricetarget:94.00(USD),closeprice84.19(USD),Recommendation:Hold,Analyst:DavidBegleiter

8.9Jan25

Pricetarget:80.00(USD),closeprice73.03(USD),Recommendation:Hold,Analyst:DavidBegleiter

9.7Apr25

Pricetarget:64.00(USD),closeprice56.60(USD),Recommendation:Hold,Analyst:DavidBegleiter

10.18Jul25

Pricetarget:65.00(USD),closeprice63.21(USD),Recommendation:Hold,Analyst:DavidB