银行行业2026年中期策略报告：盈利向好静待花开

风险提示：经济基本面改善偏慢；政策力度低于预期；存款竞争及定期化加剧，资产质量改善不及预期。正文目录一、宏观环境 51、美储策架：驶高动时代 52、中经运：节奏今的键量 63、货与政策望 9二、资负息差：信稳增长，息差企稳 121、资回：贷回落央存压，市扩张 122、负回：速、利下、构化 153、资展：政，存改善 17产：贷，金支撑 17债：款修复主负扩张 184、息展：续，结分化 20三、非息收入：中增持续回暖，其他非承压 22四、资产质量：整稳，压力主要来自零售 24五、投资策略：盈向，静待花开 271、行复：Q1块体回，H股现亮眼 272、资配：Q1动金阶性出 293、盈预：收和业增回暖 344、投策：利，静花开 36六、风险提示 38图表目录图1：美储产债（亿元） 5图2：美储债的备金面渐改（美元） 5图3：美发在2026-27年以坡十美） 6图4：心PCE输通胀升（%） 6图5：一度经增受益财靠发（%） 7图6：财放，季经济据时转（%） 7图7：基失成核边际量（%） 7图8：居收与费复缓（%） 7图9：源格击季度至PPI下游 8图10：CPI走温和（%） 9图11：PPI比计年温回（%） 9图12：十五五期间，我国公共部门杠杆率预计温和上行，位于具备可持续性的合理区间（%）11图13：债息力（%） 11图14：IMF基赤率景预（%） 11图15：行资增社融M2增（%） 13图16：府债当净资（元） 13图17：市行息同比速 14图18：融构项同比速 16图19：市行息增速 16图20：据贴利（%） 19图21：府滚动7融资亿） 20图22：市行各生息产益走及算值 21图23：市行计板块续及金收同比速 23图24：市行计板块他息入比速 24图25：行对益势 29图26：要基数及增速 31图27：要数金银行模亿） 31图28：要数金银行块模亿） 31图29：业入速 35图30：母利增速 36图31：指涨幅（2024年VS2025年VS2026年来） 37表1：分块市行息资单度量增（亿） 14表2：分块市行息负单度量增（亿） 16表3：上银资负分项模速测 18表4：上银息分测算（26H1E&26E） 21表5：上银资质一览 24表6：上行良、备覆率关率逾率情况 25表7：上行2025年公零资质情况 26表8：银各块个涨跌（至2026年6月22日） 27表9：中金行前大重股化 29表10：要基数行股重化 31表11：动金行置比与配例（vs深300） 33表12：行公基十大仓变化 33表13：银股跌股息数据 37一、宏观环境 1、美联储政策框架改革：驶入高波动率时代美联储政策框架的核心变化体现在以下方面：stayinthelane 图1：美联储资产负债（亿美元） 图2：美联储负债端的备金或面临渐进改（

其他 流通中的现

商业银行准备金

100,000.0090,000.0080,000.0070,000.0060,000.0050,000.0040,000.0030,000.0020,000.0010,000.000.00 ，招商证券 ，招商证券PCE（market-basedPCE）PCEAI62025制约。2026-27根据美财政部的发行融资数据（Privately-HeldNetMarketableBorrowingTGA20266710（T-bills）3480根据今年5月底的财政部再融资会议指引，计划在年中适度削减付息国债发行，但在2027年可能需要增加发行，这反映出在2026年中旬的油价冲击和美债利率高位背景下，财政部暂缓美债市场的供给侧压力，计划延后至2027年降息空间打开后再增发国债。图3：美债发行在2026-27年难以退坡（十亿美元图4：核心PCE受输入通胀推升（%）TreasuryAnnouncedNetMarketableBorrowing($bn) 10 6CouponIssuanceImpliedChangeinBills 8 5

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236722019-012019-052019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-012026-05-2 1(100)(300)FY2023Q1FY2023Q3FY2024Q1FY2024Q3FY2025Q1FY2025Q3FY2026Q1FY2026Q3

-4 0美国:进口价格指数(剔除石油和石油制品):当月同比美国:核心PCE:当月同比 ，招商证券 ，招商证券2、中国经济运行：财政节奏是今年的关键变量20264.5%-5%U5.0%35我们所拟合的招证银行高频GDP指数显示二季度实际经济增速或已回落至4.5-4.6%图5：一季度的经济增受益于财政靠前发（%） 图6：财政放缓，二季经济数据暂时性转（%）86

实际GDP同比 招证银行高频GDP指数4 20.02 15.02022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-092024-122025-032025-062025-092025-122026-030 10.02022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062024-092024-122025-032025-062025-092025-122026-03-2 5.0中国:对GDP中国:对GDP当季同比的拉动:资本形成总额:支出法中国:GDP:不变价:当季同比

0.0-5.0-10.02020-042021-032022-022023-012023-122024-112025-10，招商证券 ，招商证券20264月底，1.3万亿元超长期特别国债已正式启动发行，主要投向“两重”、“两10800041-54.1%1-42.5AI图7：基建失速成为核心边际变量（%） 图8：居民收入与消费复缓慢（%）52023-022023-042023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-042024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-122026-022026-04-10-15-20

中国:房地产开发投资完成额:累计同比中国:固定资产投资完成额:制造业:累计同比中国:固定资产投资完成额:基础设施建设:累计同比中国:固定资产投资完成额:高技术产业:累计同比

141412108642021-1022-0522-1223-0624-0124-0725-0225-0826-03-2全国居民人均可支配收入:累计实际同比全国居民人均消费支出:累计实际同比，招商证券 ，招商证券尽管经济运行已初步具备复苏动能，我国的再通胀态势仍需整固，财政支出节奏的阶段性调整难以外推出趋势性的减弱。PPIPPI271/4140美元桶PPI341PPIPPI0.3%PPIPPICPI4%2.6%图9：能源价格冲击在二季度传导至PPI中下游金属制品业金属制品业通用设备制造业专用设备制造业电气机械及器材制造业农副食品加工业食品制造业酒、饮料和精制茶制造业烟草制品业纺织业纺织服装、服饰业木材加工及木、竹、藤、棕造纸及纸制品业印刷业和记录媒介的复制医药制造业橡胶和塑料制品业汽车制造业铁路、船舶、航空航天和其计算机、通信和其他电子设851253中下游366446658970.7930.6940.6备5700590他-0.5910.130-0.2920.6991.7981.5-0.110-0.411-0.451-0.152-0.153-0.166059-0.160-0.126-0.20650、20-0.2-0.1880.2890.5930.7940.770071072001-0.7991820.2960.4830.249-0.126-0.427-0.4961.1770.3870.580010-0.2910.1-0.26907000.3600700.1681450.2721.1590.3650.6741.249-0.344-0.429-0.6963.6998.3912965.89916.4430业790.4560.1800.4975.49032-1.428-0.9530.4610.99715.89818.543-0.1580.1801.9893.20煤炭开采和洗选业石油和天然气开采业黑色金属矿采选业有色金属矿采选业非金属矿采选业上游石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工化学原料及化学制品制造业非金属矿物制品业黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业有色金属冶炼及压延加工业2026/5 2026/5 2026/4 2026/4 2026/3 2026/3环比涨幅 环比历史分位数 环比涨幅 环比历史分位数 环比涨幅 环比历史分位数PPI分工业行业，招商证券图10：CPI走势温和（%） 图11：PPI同比预计下年温和回落（%）2.01.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5基数因素 新涨价因素 CPI:当月同比，招商证券 ，招商证券3、货币与财政政策展望（一）货币政策维持宽松立场2026“”4-52024（7[-19BP,46BP]非对称设计[-20BP,+50BP]调整为对称设计[-25BP,+25BP]，并适时增加隔夜逆2020“投资额度。（二）积极财政具备充分空间根据BIS202599.3%2026107.5%2030130%对于主权债务可持续性问题，一般使用IMF的“债务可持续性分析”（DebtSustainabilityAnalysis,DSA）框架来进行计算与分析。由于公共债务率可视为基本赤字+(实际利率-经济增长率)×期初债务率，如果实际利息负担能够被经济增长完全抵消，即使没有财政盈余，公共债务率也不会出现失衡上升。2026-20306.56%IMF（。2026（effectiveinterestrate）0.2%GDP综上，我们预计，我国公共部门杠杆率预计将在十五五期间出现温和上行、从202599.3%2030备可持续性的合理区间，积极有为的财政政策具备充分空间。图12：十五五期间，我国公共部门杠杆率预计温和上行，位于具备可持续性的合理区间（%），BIS，招商证券图13：国债付息压力缓（亿元，%） 图14：IMF基本赤字率景预测（%）7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%2015201620172018201920202021202220232024中国:一般公共预算支出:债务付息支出国债名义有效利率

14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000

基本赤字率19891991198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023202520272029，招商证券 ，招商证券二、资负息差：信贷稳健增长，息差企稳 1、资产回顾：信贷增速回落，央行存放压降，金市扩张26Q126Q17.75806.96度下降0.27pct（Q1196%）（增速升至11.32%（前值12.39%），（7.54%）、农商行（7.39%）与股份行（3.63%），反映出信贷“弱增长、高金融投资保持较高增长，Q1金融投资新增4.3万亿，同比多增近万亿；增速，环比高出17.7%1.52pct1c，贡献率与上年同期基本持平。相比之下，股份行和城商行的金融投资增速下滑，ΔEVEQ115001.45pct（34.1%23pct），Q118551.75%，8pct3000亿),12009.6%（6.7%）Q1国6.75%10%图15：银行总资产增速与社融、M2增速（%）银行体总资同比速 M2同比增速 社融存同比速18%16%14%12%10%8%6%2016-012016-052016-092016-012016-052016-092017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-012026-05，招商证券图16：政府债-当月净融资（亿元）2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 202620,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000(2,000)

1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月，招商证券图17：上市银行生息资产同比增速国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行 上市银行20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%，招商证券亿元单季增量2024Q12024Q22024Q3亿元单季增量2024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q1上市银行贷款存放央行71,51823,21518,34414,99376,76425,69715,4318,18077,34321,44218,46927,99937,49133,35627,45540,10923,00343,29119,115-27,0845,4232,998-3,46021,180-8,3886,618-1,495-9,772-2,9161,968-21,74111,554237-2345,017-1,855国有行52,42518,67014,5319,91155,88821,71012,5534,39954,650总贷款股份行城商行11,1432451,7153,16410,855-7947802,01012,8237,0503,9281,8891,6069,0554,4831,9901,2498,624农商行9003722083129652981075221,246国有行21,23013,85019,67825,43223,309 18,94930,16820,58136,153金融投资股份行-3,0772,0045,6107,0573,0202,7535,6512,4541,3012,8802,4262,8154,5666,1765,7204,427-984,808城商行农商行408188-10543685233-137661,029国有行13,392-27,7944,946275-4,50717,982-6,305-4,022-2,997同业资产股份行城商行3,841346-1494362,483-5701,092-1,431-1,2207,3903,242761,3534064931,2332,0631,605农商行528-42190-254384445678-179国有行-5,889-2,4112,900-21,36710,5251,1841,8181,362-3,229存放央行股份行城商行-3,057-815-1,465-526-750220-403-2,1773,098163942-346249763-503854821,193农商行-1219-6112845-40417519增速2024Q12024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1上市银行贷款存放央行10.13%8.96%8.17%7.93%7.91%7.94%7.69%7.23%6.96%10.17%10.29%11.36%13.03%14.13%14.88%15.79%13.56%14.13%12.80%-10.67%3.03%0.28%-12.23%17.00%7.74%9.83%11.28%-0.51%-1.86%2.15%-16.09%-5.80%-4.22%-5.33%9.79%1.75%国有行11.56%10.12%9.06%8.79%8.69%8.82%8.54%8.00%7.54%股份行5.27%4.60%4.38%4.27%4.08%3.81%3.56%3.24%3.63%总贷款13.64%12.92%12.46%11.97%12.88%12.91%12.81%12.39%11.32%城商行农商行8.27%6.94%6.43%6.73%6.74%6.39%5.98%6.65%7.39%国有行13.55%13.55%14.74%16.25%15.98%16.53%17.85%16.21%17.73%股份行3.17%3.12%4.03%5.71%8.85%9.13%8.90%6.46%5.59%金融投资9.22%10.02%11.22%13.38%16.36%19.25%20.29%15.09%13.07%城商行农商行4.88% 5.34%3.16%5.37%7.76%6.80%6.66%4.47%5.20%国有行10.29%-21.51%-8.31%-8.32%-21.87%19.47%7.38%3.11%4.82%股份行17.41%13.55%34.47%18.16%5.31%7.12%3.94%15.28%17.03%同业资产22.10%22.34%23.28%21.09%18.21%29.11%17.19%34.44%34.12%城商行农商行19.52%18.79%29.15%15.58%8.57%11.36%21.87%32.01%12.52%国有行-0.17%-1.37%3.44%-17.52%-7.05%-4.68%-5.32%11.82%0.83%存放央行股份行城商行-2.15%-7.06%-4.53%-16.87%-8.05%-4.89%-10.61%2.59%2.37%0.04%5.92%3.76%0.24%14.01%1.31%4.91%6.71%9.60%农商行-2.61%-0.15%3.51%3.21%5.71%3.14%7.72%5.10%3.93%，招商证券2、负债回顾：增速放缓、利率下行、结构分化今年以来，银行存款呈现“增速放缓、利率下行、结构分化”的总体特征。商5月0P至，与15BP25BPQ16.4%，较上17.8pct、6.3pct32.5%、34.3%Q271.4%10%-20%包含：SLF、MLFPSL）1.47Q1分银行类型来看：国有行（股份行上市城商行Q1上市农商行图18：金融机构各项负债同比增速，招商证券图19：上市银行计息负债增速国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行 上市银行18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%，招商证券表2：分板块上市银行计息负债单季度增量及增速（亿元）单季增量存款2024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q188,063-25,75817,55428,194105,78914,244 8,85521,70192,752同业负债11,541 11,98228,275 -5,059-73632,95945,180 12,85027,337上市银行向央行借款发行债券-7,339-1,348-1,565-11,107-51010,0792,5184,2192,9597,21317,8395,86012,83614,9813,661-8,052-735-12,719存款国有行73,875-34,55910,09917,17274,2196,2449,94116,42268,412股份行3,6743,9955,5927,34115,5256,002-2,1913,4269,162城商行8,9874,3951,6943,29714,1431,8685221,72613,564农商行1,5284111693841,9011305841271,613国有行12,418-1,50713120,45222,895-6,8471,44130,83827,8412,52426,885股份行-6,572-1,396-5024,80861-1,540-3,76412,0497,9191,097同业负债8331,240-1,0976,1835,1212,432-953城商行农商行498-261487459-299168-26308国有行-3,295-586-803-4,740-4,459-1,785-122-1,3368,8262,1611,4783,299向央行借款股份行城商行-3,378-575-452292742-8711,781-2,418-662-247-3344794831,1659151,854农商行-5602356286345224国有行-1,84111,3876,2422,87612,1114,533-2,226-2,131-12,420发行债券股份行城商行8,0352,647-2,9747,192-184-3,498-4,753-8141,504-9931,3943,2182,3343,0093,1602,271-611849农商行-375587258-240-106354-259503-155增速2024Q12024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1存款7.95%4.49%4.32%5.59%6.22%8.31%7.80%7.38%6.41%同业负债16.67% 15.29%28.80%14.70%10.46%16.24%19.57%24.75%32.52%上市银行向央行借款发行债券20.91%13.98%3.69%-26.87%-20.14%-4.38%1.42%28.05%34.31%5.94%19.36% 20.55%23.79%26.95%17.87%10.90%4.33%-7.35%国有行9.24%4.38%3.64%4.91%4.68%7.73%7.66%7.52%6.75%股份行3.17%2.16%3.97%5.16%8.05%8.47%6.47%5.42%3.77%存款9.26%11.42% 11.00%12.76%15.38%13.34%12.47%11.24%10.02%城商行农商行7.72%7.27%7.44%7.11%7.84%6.99%8.08%7.31%6.23%国有行27.86%28.75%52.61%28.77%20.80%23.82% 23.59%28.61%39.97%同业负债股份行城商行1.73%16.66%-1.12%3.93%-2.89%-2.96%-1.27%-0.42%6.31%13.58%16.25%39.14%3.69%3.02%2.45%22.60%35.21%37.44%农商行20.53%0.12%-6.28%6.07%4.40%10.53%23.94%7.77%3.48%国有行15.35%6.23%1.89%-21.85%-42.15%-23.04%-2.01%-18.74%4.96%12.77%33.01%15.97%30.09%48.69%股份行29.24%25.31%0.63%-29.43%-22.71%-25.85%-6.15%向央行借款城商行28.45%25.41%12.15%-15.11%-9.45%2.88%41.70%农商行23.73%25.35%18.61%0.76%-0.67%1.10%8.94%16.35%国有行0.59%28.09% 28.25%22.71%40.60%28.09%17.65%12.18%-10.84%发行债券股份行城商行11.95%14.37%11.96%22.32%22.32%8.93%0.69%-1.67%-8.49%-9.50%3.80%10.31%12.89%31.61%35.65%29.84%19.84%9.67%农商行-20.30%-2.03%2.03%6.55%15.89%7.14%-6.29%13.16%12.20%，招商证券3、资负展望：财政发力，存款改善资产端：信贷仍弱，金市支撑贷款：预计266.6%、7.0%、3.0%、11.6%、6.8%。预计全年上市银行、6.3%6.6%3.0%11.4%、7.3%。63075.89%（84.87%）特别国债与地方一般债发行节奏较为缓慢，专项债发行进度与上年相差相对较少。14.2%、18.1%、4.9%、13.6%、3.3%。为10.2%、1.3%、17.3%、39.1%、25.6%。9.4%、10.0%、4.4%、17.2%、6.9%。负债端：存款增长修复，主动负债扩张%（0.76pct)6.0%6.6%2.9%9.1%、6.0%。9.2%、10.2%、3.9%、14.9%、7.2%。国有行2021A2022A2023A国有行2021A2022A2023A2024A2025Q12025H12025Q1~32025A2026Q12026H1E2026E11.8%12.7%12.9%8.8%8.7%8.8%8.5%8.0%7.5%7.0%6.6%8.5%12.2%12.3%16.3%16.0%16.5%17.9%16.2%17.7%18.0%18.1%-10.6%31.1%20.3%-8.3%-21.9%19.5%7.4%3.1%4.8%2.4%1.3%生息资产增速8.0%13.3%13.4%7.6%7.4%10.5%10.0%10.5%10.0%10.0%10.0%存款增长7.3%12.7%12.1%4.9%4.7%7.7%7.7%7.5%6.8%6.7%6.6%12.0%16.0%17.9%28.8%20.8%23.8%23.6%28.6%40.0%37.8%41.0%14.0%17.9%24.6%22.7%40.6%28.1%17.7%12.2%-10.8%-7.3%-16.7%计息负债增速7.8%13.4%13.6%7.8%7.7%10.8%10.4%10.8%10.2%10.3%10.2%股份行2021A2022A2023A2024A2025Q12025H12025Q1~32025A2026Q12026H1E2026E9.0%6.9%6.1%8.6%4.3%4.1%3.8%3.6%3.2%3.6%3.0%3.0%6.0%11.1%5.7%8.9%9.1%8.9%6.5%5.6%5.7%4.9%7.3%0.2%20.7%18.2%5.3%7.1%3.9%15.3%17.0%15.7%17.3%生息资产增速7.4%6.7%7.7%4.1%4.7%4.7%4.2%4.8%4.7%4.4%4.4%存款增长7.1%10.9%6.4%5.2%8.1%8.5%6.5%5.4%3.8%3.8%2.9%6.5%6.9%10.7%-3.0%-3.0%-0.4%6.3%13.6%16.3%17.7%21.9%17.9%-3.5%-1.2%22.3%8.9%0.7%-1.7%-8.5%-9.5%-12.1%-15.7%计息负债增速6.9%7.3%7.9%3.9%5.0%5.1%4.6%5.2%4.0%4.1%3.9%城商行2021A2022A2023A2024A2025Q12025H12025Q1~32025A2026Q12026H1E2026E贷款同比增长15.7%13.5%13.3%12.0%12.9%12.9%12.8%12.4%11.3%11.6%11.4%投资类资产增长11.3%12.9%12.2%13.4%16.4%19.3%20.3%15.1%13.1%14.6%13.6%同业资产增长17.6%20.2%6.6%21.1%18.2%29.1%17.2%34.4%34.1%35.7%39.1%生息资产增速12.8%11.7%12.1%12.6%16.1%17.6%17.5%17.0%15.8%17.1%17.2%存款增长11.3%14.0%11.7%12.8%15.4%13.3%12.5%11.2%10.0%10.0%9.1%同业负债增长13.7%18.7%14.3%2.5%-1.3%22.6%35.2%37.4%39.1%45.7%52.4%发行债券增长26.7%8.8%2.1%31.6%35.7%29.8%19.8%9.7%3.8%3.8%-1.8%计息负债增速12.2%13.2%11.9%11.8%14.2%15.9%16.2%15.3%13.8%15.0%14.9%农商行2021A2022A2023A2024A2025Q12025H12025Q1~32025A2026Q12026H1E2026E贷款同比增长15.1%10.6%8.5%6.7%6.7%6.4%6.0%6.7%7.4%6.8%7.3%投资类资产增长9.3%12.2%13.6%5.4%7.8%6.8%6.7%4.5%5.2%4.0%3.3%同业资产增长-9.3%-8.5%-1.2%15.6%8.6%11.4%21.9%32.0%12.5%24.4%25.6%生息资产增速9.4%9.8%8.0%7.5%8.0%6.8%7.0%7.5%6.9%6.9%6.9%存款增长9.5%11.5%9.9%7.1%7.8%7.0%8.1%7.3%6.2%6.3%6.0%同业负债增长-9.2%23.6%22.8%6.1%4.4%10.5%23.9%7.8%3.5%5.6%2.8%发行债券增长13.3%-14.8%-11.2%6.6%15.9%7.1%-6.3%13.2%12.2%13.1%15.8%计息负债增速9.1%8.5%9.6%6.5%7.7%6.9%7.7%7.9%6.9%7.2%7.2%，招商证券图20：票据转贴现利率（%）3.002.752.502.252.001.751.501.251.000.750.500.252023-01-032023-02-032023-01-032023-02-032023-03-032023-04-032023-05-032023-06-032023-07-032023-08-032023-09-032023-10-032023-11-032023-12-032024-01-032024-02-032024-03-032024-04-032024-05-032024-06-032024-07-032024-08-032024-09-032024-10-032024-11-032024-12-032025-01-032025-02-032025-03-032025-04-032025-05-032025-06-032025-07-032025-08-032025-09-032025-10-032025-11-032025-12-032026-01-032026-02-032026-03-032026-04-032026-05-032026-06-03转贴(国股贴)3M国股 转贴(国股贴半年国股，招商证券图21：政府债滚动7日净融资（亿元）2023 2024 2025 20261000080006000400020000-2000-40001234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253，招商证券4、息差展望：持续企稳，结构分化测算26Q1上市银行净息差，与2025展望Q2预计2026、3.3%、3.3%、3.1%；计息负债成本率分别为1.6%、1.7%、1.8%、1.6%；净息差分别为1.3%、1.6%、、1.6%。图22：上市银行及各板块生息资产收益率走势及测算值国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行 上市银行4.10%3.90%3.70%3.50%3.30%3.10%2.90%2.70%2.50%2024H1 2024Q1-3 2024A 2025Q1 2025H1 2025Q1-3 2025A 2026Q1，招商证券国有行2022H12022A2023H12023A2024H1国有行2022H12022A2023H12023A2024H12024A2025H12025A2026H1E2026E贷款收益率4.40%4.40%4.20%4.16%3.84%3.75%3.06%2.95%2.89%2.85%投资类资产收益率2.80%2.80%2.78%2.77%2.68%2.59%2.89%2.79%2.80%2.82%存放央行收益率1.16%1.19%1.23%1.22%1.19%1.24%1.61%1.58%1.63%1.66%同业资产收益率2.36%2.56%2.97%3.21%3.28%3.00%2.30%2.12%2.32%2.05%生息资产收益率3.60%3.62%3.51%3.50%3.30%3.21%2.89%2.78%2.76%2.73%存款付息率1.75%1.82%1.89%1.94%1.83%1.75%1.52%1.43%1.48%1.37%向央行借款付息率1.55%1.47%1.34%1.26%1.35%1.39%1.98%1.87%1.88%2.03%同业负债付息率2.15%2.19%2.56%2.59%2.70%2.63%1.94%1.83%1.90%1.68%发行债券付息率2.94%2.87%2.87%2.90%2.93%2.81%2.56%2.46%2.42%2.30%计息负债成本率1.91%1.97%2.06%2.10%2.03%1.96%1.65%1.56%1.61%1.57%净利差1.69%1.65%1.45%1.40%1.26%1.25%1.25%1.22%1.17%1.15%净息差1.88%1.85%1.66%1.61%1.46%1.44%1.37%1.34%1.32%1.31%股份行贷款收益率4.15%4.15%3.97%3.92%3.61%3.52%3.74%3.61%3.58%3.55%投资类资产收益率2.89%2.94%2.94%2.93%2.86%2.78%2.90%2.82%2.86%2.85%存放央行收益率1.11%1.15%1.19%1.19%1.15%1.22%1.50%1.51%1.55%1.64%同业资产收益率2.10%2.46%2.86%3.26%3.48%3.14%2.24%2.09%2.43%2.14%生息资产收益率3.44%3.48%3.39%3.39%3.21%3.13%3.34%3.23%3.25%3.27%存款付息率1.63%1.70%1.81%1.86%1.77%1.68%1.72%1.61%1.68%1.63%向央行借款付息率0.72%0.70%0.65%0.65%0.70%0.72%2.04%1.98%2.04%2.40%同业负债付息率2.01%2.26%2.61%2.70%2.85%2.86%1.89%1.75%2.01%1.76%发行债券付息率3.08%3.23%3.38%3.37%3.28%3.17%2.26%2.21%2.27%1.98%计息负债成本率1.74%1.83%1.96%2.02%1.97%1.91%1.81%1.70%1.79%1.75%净利差1.70%1.64%1.43%1.37%1.24%1.22%1.53%1.53%1.47%1.51%净息差1.88%1.84%1.64%1.59%1.44%1.42%1.61%1.60%1.57%1.57%城商行贷款收益率4.84%4.83%4.62%4.57%4.26%4.15%4.11%4.03%3.99%3.95%投资类资产收益率2.64%2.60%2.55%2.58%2.43%2.30%2.82%2.70%2.67%2.74%存放央行收益率1.31%1.33%1.38%1.35%1.32%1.32%1.41%1.42%1.43%1.45%同业资产收益率2.71%2.64%3.26%3.08%2.85%2.70%2.11%1.95%1.86%1.55%生息资产收益率3.91%3.89%3.77%3.73%3.50%3.38%3.47%3.38%3.35%3.31%存款付息率1.98%2.06%2.07%2.10%1.94%1.86%1.92%1.84%1.88%1.85%向央行借款付息率2.61%2.53%2.46%2.09%2.21%2.34%1.93%1.84%1.80%1.69%同业负债付息率2.23%2.07%2.45%2.41%2.47%2.29%2.00%1.85%1.77%1.58%发行债券付息率2.84%2.60%2.44%2.47%2.62%2.50%2.08%2.00%1.85%1.68%计息负债成本率2.16%2.17%2.22%2.23%2.13%2.04%1.96%1.88%1.88%1.80%净利差1.74%1.72%1.55%1.50%1.37%1.34%1.51%1.50%1.47%1.50%净息差1.93%1.91%1.74%1.70%1.55%1.52%1.53%1.53%1.50%1.50%农商行贷款收益率5.01%5.03%4.85%4.83%4.54%4.48%3.84%3.69%3.65%3.60%投资类资产收益率2.68%2.54%2.46%2.39%2.25%2.20%2.53%2.44%2.33%2.35%存放央行收益率1.25%1.27%1.33%1.31%1.26%1.27%1.53%1.54%1.55%1.62%同业资产收益率3.24%3.09%3.14%3.15%2.98%2.83%1.64%1.67%1.45%1.05%生息资产收益率3.83%3.79%3.67%3.64%3.43%3.36%3.29%3.15%3.11%3.09%存款付息率2.17%2.20%2.18%2.22%2.08%2.05%1.75%1.67%1.68%1.56%向央行借款付息率2.40%2.41%2.24%2.00%2.10%2.11%1.81%1.73%1.74%1.65%同业负债付息率2.48%2.26%2.60%2.63%2.63%2.41%1.88%1.81%1.63%1.38%发行债券付息率2.87%2.74%2.58%2.64%2.56%2.40%2.41%2.40%2.26%2.21%计息负债成本率2.35%2.32%2.31%2.34%2.23%2.17%1.81%1.72%1.69%1.63%净利差1.48%1.47%1.36%1.30%1.20%1.19%1.43%1.42%1.41%1.46%净息差1.67%1.66%1.54%1.49%1.38%1.37%1.56%1.55%1.53%1.57%，招商证券三、非息收入：中收增速持续回暖，其他非息承压Q15.79%主要得益于稳健的财富管理/代理费用（上半年资本市场表现较好，吸引家庭资产从存款向理财产品/保险产品/基金加速转移），/区域性银行的手续费收入增长普遍优于股份制总速分别为6.6%、5.2%、、5.5%、13.4%。图23：上市银行合计及子板块手续费及佣金净收入同比增速

，招商证券

国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行 上市银行7.4pct1031.81%强于城/农商行，其中尤其以国有行的公允价值变动收益最为显著（同比增长189%115%172%)25Q21.7%10BP7.4%、13.5%、5.6%、-4.0%、-10.2%。图24：上市银行合计及子板块其他非息收入同比增速100%

国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行 上市银行80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%，招商证券四、资产质量：整体稳定，压力主要来自零售 1末上市银行平均不良贷款率420252b6bp1，26Q11626Q1295.59%，较25Q4末回落4.62pct，连续三年拨备覆盖率呈平稳略降态势。202525H11.7%25H1升9bp，零售贷款不良率持续抬升，经营贷、消费类、按揭均有所承压。上市银行资产质量一览2023A2024Q12024H1上市银行资产质量一览2023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-32024A2025Q12025H12025Q1-32025A2026Q1不良贷款率1.17%1.17%1.17%1.17%1.16%1.16%1.15%1.15%1.14%1.14%拨备覆盖率309.47%306.33%304.70%302.14%295.59%287.72%287.29%283.04%280.57%275.95%拨贷比3.32%3.28%3.28%3.25%3.18%3.10%3.08%3.03%3.00%2.94%关注贷款率1.81%1.91%1.82%1.79%1.81%关注率+不良率2.98%3.08%2.98%2.94%2.95%逾期贷款率1.52%1.72%1.64%1.68%1.62%逾期/不良127.64%144.02%139.36%142.27%140.00%重组贷款率0.44%0.52%0.60%0.61%0.59%（重组+逾期）/贷款1.96%2.24%2.23%2.29%2.20%贷款减值损失/资产减值损失92.02%99.61%98.14%97.38%95.64%金融投资减值损失/资产减值损失8.19%-1.59%1.52%-0.91%0.89%贷款减值准备/资产减值准备81.74%82.67%83.03%83.36%83.61%金融投资减值准备/资产减值准备13.69%13.08%12.67%12.02%14.25%非信贷资产减值准备/非信贷资产0.93%0.90%0.84%0.82%0.70%不良生成率1（披露核转）0.93%0.97%1.01%0.97%0.92%不良生成率2（测算核转）1.81%1.48%1.70%1.70%0.91%0.81%0.87%0.84%0.86%0.75%不良核销转出率1（披露核转）70.4%73.3%82.4%76.9%76.3%不良核销转出率2（测算核转）134.8%91.4%121.1%127.2%141.9%109.1%131.3%131.0%136.2%36.4%，招商证券截止日期 不良率拨备覆盖率关注率逾期率简称26Q1变化(bp)25A截止日期 不良率拨备覆盖率关注率逾期率简称26Q1变化(bp)25A26Q1变化(pct)25A26Q1变化(bp)25A26Q1变化(bp)25A成都银行0.68%0.00.68%424%-2.1426%0.31%-2.70.34%未披0.84%厦门银行0.72%-5.00.77%307%-5.7313%未披1.67%未披1.23%常熟银行0.75%-1.00.76%438%-13.2451%未披1.59%未披1.92%杭州银行0.76%0.00.76%481%-20.9502%0.52%0.53%10.70.42%宁波银行0.76%0.00.76%369%-3.8373%1.14%未披0.86%无锡银行0.77%0.00.77%406%-8.9415%0.72%未披0.85%江苏银行0.81% -3.0 0.84%308%-14.6323%1.32%1.12%-4.91.17%苏州银行0.82%0.00.82%381%-37.4419%0.90%未披1.15%江阴银行0.82%0.00.82%330%0.2330%1.37%未披1.20%南京银行0.83%0.00.83%307%-6.8314%1.16%未披1.28%苏农银行0.88%0.00.88%353%-17.1370%1.33%未披1.06%招商银行0.94%0.00.94%388%-4.0392%1.43%1.29%3.81.25%张家港行0.94%0.00.94%321%-8.2329%1.30%未披1.80%青岛银行0.96% -1.0 0.97%306%13.3292%0.56%未披1.20%沪农商行0.96%0.00.96%303%-25.8329%1.79%未披1.40%邮储银行0.99%4.00.95%217%-11.3228%1.57%1.40%9.81.30%齐鲁银行1.03%-2.01.05%357%1.6356%0.86%未披0.88%平安银行1.05%0.01.05%220%-1.3221%1.75%未披1.61%渝农商行1.07% -1.0 1.08%366%-1.5367%未披1.42%未披1.19%兴业银行1.08%0.01.08%225%-3.9228%1.75%6.71.69%未披1.49%瑞丰银行1.09%10.00.99%298%-28.8327%1.94%-2.21.96%未披2.01%重庆银行1.12%-2.01.14%247%1.0246%未披1.94%未披1.36%中信银行1.15%0.01.15%202%-1.2204%1.62%未披1.43%长沙银行1.15%0.01.15%281%0.1281%2.93%未披1.66%上海银行1.18%0.01.18%241%-3.6245%2.11%未披1.65%中国银行1.22%-1.01.23%203%2.8200%未披1.47%未披1.26%浦发银行1.23%-3.01.26%205%4.1201%2.10%-1.82.12%未披1.91%农业银行1.25%-2.01.27%293%0.0293%未披1.39%未披1.25%交通银行1.30%2.01.28%203%-5.6208%未披1.65%未披1.46%工商银行1.31%0.01.31%214%0.8214%未披1.95%未披1.52%建设银行1.31%0.01.31%234%0.9233%未披1.77%未披1.32%光大银行1.32%5.01.27%162%-11.9174%未披1.85%未披2.13%北京银行1.32%3.01.29%198%-2.2200%未披1.61%未披1.96%紫金银行1.34%-1.01.35%180%0.3180%1.87%11.41.76%未披1.72%浙商银行1.36%0.01.36%156%0.3155%未披2.35%未披1.81%民生银行1.46% -3.0 1.49%142%-0.1142%2.74%未披2.16%华夏银行1.55%0.01.55%146%3.1143%2.67%未披1.61%贵阳银行1.59%0.01.59%238%2.7236%2.94%未披2.14%西安银行1.64%-1.01.65%246%31.8215%1.63%未披2.15%郑州银行1.69%-2.01.71%203%16.9186%2.02%未披4.31%青农商行1.74%-1.01.75%235%-26.3261%5.54%未披3.37%兰州银行1.78%-4.01.82%190%-878.0198%5.64%未披3.59%0.47%-5.0-8.21.06%0.74%1.51.16%-16.50.81%-8.51.27%-9.81.05%-10.91.39%6.41.48%4.61.15%-15.00.56%0.41.58%-21.01.68%10.70.82%-4.21.78%3.01.64%1.12.90%-3.42.12%0.72.75%1.62.72%4.43.65%70.72.94%130.91.99%-2.74.69%-84.85.44%-19.7，招商证券不良率-2025A对公零售制造业广义基建批发零售业房地产按揭不良率-2025A对公零售制造业广义基建批发零售业房地产按揭消费信用卡经营贷工商银行1.36%1.58%1.55%0.64%2.70%5.39%1.06%2.58%4.61%1.82%建设银行1.53%1.19%1.44%0.97%2.23%4.93%0.89%1.07%2.36%1.58%农业银行1.37%1.34%1.39%0.77%2.44%5.40%0.92%1.46%1.88%1.85%中国银行1.22%1.10%0.88%0.76%6.26%0.60%2.18%1.95%邮储银行0.54%1.42%0.88%0.15%1.33%1.58%0.69%1.54%1.45%2.44%交通银行1.19%1.58%1.38%0.35%2.77%4.20%1.01%1.77%2.68%1.94%招商银行0.89%1.06%0.43%0.19%0.65%4.78%0.51%1.02%1.74%1.22%兴业银行1.01%1.38%0.87%0.54%3.23%1.93%0.60%3.34%1.29%浦发银行1.21%1.47%0.87%0.58%1.69%3.36%1.10%1.80%1.92%1.69%中信银行1.09% 1.32%1.04%0.57%2.29%2.67%民生银行1.24%1.92%1.21%0.49%2.27%3.61% 0.77% 3.87%1.63%光大银行1.21%1.46%1.36%0.29%1.74%4.94%平安银行0.94%1.23%1.10%1.49%0.84%2.22%0.28%1.12%2.24%1.17%华夏银行1.42%2.11%1.90%0.48%3.42%2.83%1.01%浙商银行1.10%2.45%1.32%0.36%2.29%1.74%北京银行江苏银行0.86%0.96%1.01%0.01%1.40%4.23%2.46% 上海银行1.35%1.34%0.93%0.26%1.94%2.91%0.69%1.25%2.03%2.39%宁波银行0.23%1.94%0.48%0.06%0.32%0.17% 0.89% 1.85% 3.45% 南京银行0.63%0.99%0.03%1.51%1.81%0.96%杭州银行0.58%1.21%0.58%0.11%0.78%6.72%0.71%1.45%1.52%成都银行0.59%1.11%1.70%0.09%2.37%2.85%1.15%0.90%1.22%长沙银行0.61%2.43%2.97%0.37%0.39%0.00%重庆银行0.71% 3.23%1.91%0.19%0.78%7.75%贵阳银行1.30%3.12%1.58%0.04%4.18%0.41%郑州银行1.87%1.83%3.14%0.75%3.04%5.11%1.28%0.69%2.76%2.81%青岛银行0.60%2.02%0.78%0.02%1.44%1.61%苏州银行0.54%1.82%1.29%0.07%0.84%0.22%0.87%1.78%3.01% 齐鲁银行0.77% 2.28%2.60%0.16%0.85%兰州银行1.72%2.17%0.27%0.79%8.82%1.70%1.91%1.99%2.80%3.98%厦门银行0.60%1.34%1.93%0.04%0.93%西安银行渝农商行0.55%2.07%0.78%0.21%1.54% 1.60% 1.97% 沪农商行0.87%1.56%0.87%0.35%2.33%0.98%青农商行1.84%1.99%1.30%0.21%0.88%23.00%1.60%1.94%1.99% 常熟银行0.55%1.02%张家港行苏农银行0.71%2.17%0.61%0.27%0.53%4.88%江阴银行瑞丰银行0.34%1.99%0.41%0.11%0.51%上市银行0.98%1.72%1.25%0.62%1.92%3.88%0.96%1.51%2.56%2.07%国有行1.20%1.37%1.25%0.72%2.29%4.63%0.86%1.68%2.53%1.93%股份行1.12%1.60%1.12%0.47%2.05%3.12%0.71%1.31%2.62%1.40%城商行0.86%1.91%1.48%0.11%1.97%2.73%1.06%1.42%2.53%2.61%农商行0.81%1.80%0.79%0.18%1.16%9.62%1.60%1.94%1.98%，招商证券五、投资策略：盈利向好，静待花开 1、行情复盘：Q1板块整体回调，H股表现亮眼截至6月22股银行下跌（300上涨H（恒生指数下跌与2024-2025A（+3.21%）>（+16.19%）、江苏银行（+12.74%），均为基本面与区域景气占优的城商行。H（+53.13%）（+51.64%）（+21.46%）（+19.73%）。300AIH股银行受益于相对A相对收益明显好于A涨跌幅2026年以来26Q2以来2026Q12025年2024年涨跌幅2026年以来26Q2以来2026Q12025年2024年2023年000300.SH沪深3006.25%10.55%-3.89%17.66%14.68%-11.38%HSI.HI恒生指数-8.95%-5.86%-3.29%27.77%17.67%-13.82%801780.SI申万银行-6.51%-3.11%-3.51%7.00%34.39%-7.89%CI005163.WI国有行-5.17%-0.42%-4.78%19.06%47.48%24.87%CI005164.WI股份行-10.13%-4.62%-5.77%10.39%38.65%-9.82%CI005344.WI城商行3.21%-0.86%4.10%9.59%45.56%-11.91%CI005524.WI农商行-4.55%-5.75%1.27%10.22%41.13%1.25%CIHK5021.WIH股银行14.93%9.40%5.06%38.94%38.51%8.52%601288.SH农业银行A股-12.78%-0.02%-12.76%52.66%54.74%33.18%601187.SH厦门银行A股3.13%-1.05%4.22%35.78%21.07%-6.68%002948.SZ青岛银行A股27.01%9.85%15.63%19.14%33.36%-4.54%601963.SH重庆银行A股4.31%6.21%-1.79%21.64%40.49%7.70%601398.SH工商银行A股-4.77%-1.16%-3.66%21.54%52.39%17.37%002142.SZ宁波银行A股11.07%2.46%8.40%20.68%24.32%-36.75%002807.SZ江阴银行A股-2.21%-1.56%-0.66%12.32%28.78%-6.38%601166.SH兴业银行A股-11.34%-3.65%-7.98%15.04%25.77%-0.90%601577.SH长沙银行A股-3.61%-2.91%-0.72%16.30%36.76%5.52%601229.SH上海银行A股-7.52%-5.75%-1.88%16.30%68.98%8.13%601077.SH渝农商行A股6.30%-5.70%12.73%11.92%56.97%24.35%601998.SH中信银行A股-0.25%-7.46%7.79%15.13%42.26%12.32%600919.SH江苏银行A股12.74%4.03%8.37%11.24%56.49%-1.75%600000.SH浦发银行A股-25.40%-8.84%-18.17%24.56%61.14%-4.97%603323.SH苏农银行A股-6.07%-3.39%-2.77%10.07%31.95%-7.67%600928.SH西安银行A股-3.78%-2.20%-1.62%4.97%10.40%-1.15%600036.SH招商银行A股-8.87%-4.88%-4.19%11.76%49.77%-21.21%601665.SH齐鲁银行A股8.27%5.73%2.40%7.47%49.51%-1.52%002839.SZ张家港行A股-5.29%-3.60%-1.75%12.04%18.23%-11.88%601939.SH建设银行A股8.51%4.35%3.99%12.87%42.43%23.16%601916.SH浙商银行A股0.99%2.33%-1.32%9.22%22.42%-2.28%601009.SH南京银行A股-3.01%-2.67%-0.35%12.16%57.96%-24.51%601988.SH中国银行A股7.16%4.60%2.44%10.75%45.24%33.99%601825.SH沪农商行A股-10.12%-8.34%-1.94%14.43%62.52%3.65%600926.SH杭州银行A股4.10%-5.04%9.62%8.95%55.97%-20.79%002958.SZ青农商行A股-7.10%-5.88%-1.29%5.23%20.53%-9.34%601128.SH常熟银行A股-1.91%-3.28%1.42%7.66%34.19%-12.25%600908.SH无锡银行A股-7.59%-4.53%-3.20%5.76%21.53%-0.42%601997.SH贵阳银行A股-1.70%-0.85%-0.85%2.68%23.08%-1.14%002966.SZ苏州银行A股-7.24%-8.01%0.84%7.25%35.75%-12.89%601658.SH邮储银行A股-5.05%-1.36%-3.74%0.67%37.55%-0.64%000001.SZ平安银行A股-3.05%-0.16%-2.89%2.71%36.42%-26.91%601860.SH紫金银行A股-1.85%-4.30%2.56%0.34%17.10%1.53%600016.SH民生银行A股-8.88%-7.92%-1.04%-3.09%21.09%14.54%601528.SH瑞丰银行A股-14.10%-8.31%-6.32%5.25%17.88%3.83%001227.SZ兰州银行A股-5.78%-5.73%-0.06%-1.81%-1.27%-28.06%601838.SH成都银行A股16.19%9.40%6.20%-1.28%61.32%-21.98%601328.SH交通银行A股-5.79%-2.43%-3.45%0.37%42.16%29.35%002936.SZ郑州银行A股-9.84%-6.45%-3.63%-7.26%4.48%-5.87%601169.SH北京银行A股-6.93%-7.44%0.55%-6.49%43.69%12.61%601818.SH光大银行A股-8.16%-3.12%-5.21%-5.59%40.63%0.61%600015.SH华夏银行A股1.13%-6.56%8.23%-9.82%51.23%15.92%3698.HK徽商银行H股53.13%6.52%43.75%37.83%11.66%0.96%1578.HK天津银行H股-7.53%-0.32%-7.23%48.35%9.11%-6.25%1963.HK重庆银行H股1.91%1.14%0.76%37.26%72.85%7.94%3866.HK青岛银行H股21.46%7.22%13.28%39.18%62.38%-34.02%0998.HK中信银行H股7.80%-5.30%13.83%36.19%62.98%16.82%1288.HK农业银行H股1.45%5.27%-3.63%40.83%57.85%22.69%3618.HK渝农商行H股9.86%-4.16%14.64%34.60%76.01%26.33%0939.HK建设银行H股12.22%2.86%9.10%30.12%50.74%3.86%3968.HK招商银行H股-9.54%-5.24%-4.55%37.37%56.35%-34.36%2066.HK盛京银行H股0.00%0.00%0.00%31.67%53.85%-87.09%1398.HK工商银行H股13.79%4.34%9.06%31.31%46.89%3.29%1988.HK民生银行H股-13.49%-7.36%-6.62%19.99%48.02%6.26%6818.HK光大银行H股-7.97%6.58%-13.65%28.39%41.21%6.81%3988.HK中国银行H股19.73%7.44%11.43%22.96%42.97%14.21%1658.HK邮储银行H股-2.97%2.44%-5.29%19.17%35.65%-18.40%2016.HK浙商银行H股-3.06%-1.49%-1.59%20.12%19.55%-18.89%6196.HK郑州银行H股-20.00%-9.80%-11.30%13.77%24.10%-19.93%3328.HK交通银行H股12.71%3.27%9.15%10.58%40.64%17.70%6138.HK哈尔滨银行H股-11.43%-7.46%-4.29%4.48%40.17%-28.66%1983.HK泸州银行H股-3.23%1.45%-4.61%17.41%-16.91%-18.00%9668.HK渤海银行H股-24.21%-10.00%-15.79%6.74%-21.24%-38.92%1216.HK中原银行H股-9.52%-12.31%3.17%8.62%-10.45%-46.83%9677.HK威海银行H股0.35%6.30%-5.59%2.69%6.66%-9.03%8.24%8.24%0.00%-3.23%-24.54%-12.42%8.24%8.24%0.00%-3.23%-24.54%-12.42%-8.96%-8.96%0.00%-3.73%7.37%-17.32%-16.31%-14.49%-2.13%4.24%8.39%44.86%51.64%13.85%33.20%-2.01%-28.86%-66.67%-9.24%11.34%-18.49%4.49%-22.31%-37.45%2.04%6.55%-4.24%-12.94%-33.25%1.92%1916.HK H股2558.HK H股2139.HK H股6199.HK H股9889.HK H股，招商证券图25：银行相对收益趋势60.0%

相对收益 银行(申万)10.9贸易战再次升级

2.141月社融信贷增长超预期1.22六部门印发中长期资金入市方案4.29银行24和25Q1报披露

7.15上半年GDP增速5.3%9.128月社融增速见顶回落11.6央行下调存款准备金率0.5%

4.8美伊双方停火30.0%完毕，国有行利润负增长

11.13社融、M2、M1、信贷增速均环比下行20.0%10.0%1.1412..卖操作 4.2美国关税政落

8.137月社融数据信贷负增长5.30渝农商行、沪农商行纳入沪深300成分股

2.27，美伊冲突加剧，防御性版块开始具备相对收益.-20.0%

5.20LPR下调10bp，存款挂牌利率超调

，招商证券；注：相对收益=申万银行指数累计涨幅-沪深300指数累计涨幅2、资金配置：Q1被