全球数字资产：数字资产备忘录：比特币是否显现生机（122n）-The Digital Assets Memo：Bitcoin any signs of life(122n)-20260706

BitcoinBitcoinretesteditsrecentlowsaround~$60Kandisnowexperiencingamildbounceto~$63K.WewalkthroughthemarketfactorsdrivingitspriceandlookforanysignsoflifThecryptobearmarket(fromthecycletoparoundNov2025)haslastedthreequarters(historicaldrawdownshavelasted12-15months).TheBitcoindrawdownhasbeencloseto~54%fromthe~$125Kcycletop.Although,itisunclearifwearecompletelyoutofthewoods,butthiscryptobearmarkethasbeenmilderthanthepreviousdrawdown(~75-90%BTCdrawdownpastcycles-seeExhibit1).BitcoininflowsfromleadingtreasurycompaniesandETFsstandsat$10Bnin2026vs.$60Bnin2025.FurtherbreakdownsuggeststhatBitcoinETFshaveseen$5.5Bnoutflowsthisyearoutofthe$74BntotalAUM,implyinginflowshavebeendrivenbytreasurycompanies-particularlyStrategy(MSTR).Although$5.5BnETFoutflowsoveranAUMbaseof$74bncombinedwitha~50%BTCcorrectionfeelslikepositiveinflowyearforBitcoindoesn’tseemasbad.Strategy(MSTR)hasgonethroughitsownfearcycle.STRC,thSTRCcurrentmarketpricestandsat$87.87(vs.facevalueof$100).However,Strategyhasbeenabletomaintainitsbalancesheetliquiditytomorethancoverthecashdividendsandinterestcost(over17monthscashcover-Exhibit2).Strategy’sdebtliabilitiesaremere13%ofitsBitcoincollateralvaluewiththenextprincipaldue(approx.$1Bn)byQ3’2028.The~$15Bnpreferredprincipalisperpetuallongtermbalancesheetcapital.Strategyaspartofcapitalpolicyhassuggesteditcouldsellupto$1.25BnBitcointofunddividendandinterestexpense,replenishUSDreservesandsupportbuybackplansforMSTRCommonsharesandpreferredinstruments.StrategycontinuestomaintainUSDreservecoverageof~17monthsfordividendandinterestexpenses,withanyreductionbelow12monthsrequiringboardStrategy’sBitcoinbuyinghasbeenabalancingforceinthemarketwhereleadishareofhashratebeingaAmerica).Overall,BitcUSBTCminerssofar.Forexample,U.SBitcoinminerquarters,whileminerslocatedinemergingmarketshavegained~100bpsshareoverthesameperiod.Further,regulatoryprogressonoverallcryptomarketsperpetualfuturesarenowbeingrolledoutintheU.S(KalshiandCoinbase)andthereisstillhopeCLARITYActwillpassin2026(still50:50nativeassetsandblockchainversionofreal-worldassets(debt,equities,moneymarketetc).Overalcontinuestoclimbnewhighs(~$52Bntokenised-Exhibit4).Bitcoinlongterm.Wereckon,our2026year-end$150KBTCpricetargetappearsambitiousincontextofthemarketcorrection.However,SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite.FirstPublished:06Jul202606:35UTCCompletionDate:06Jul202606:35UTCGautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@6July2026weexpectBitcoincyclewilleventuallyturn(seeExhibit1-onpastcycles)andwecontinuetowatchtheBTCflowsto131,07265,53632,76816,3848,1924,0962,0481,02451225664328421~54%drawdown~77%drawdown~83%drawdown~84%drawdown~93%Jul-14Jul-15Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jul-23Jul-24Jul-25Source:Bloomberg,BernsteinanalysisGautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@6July2026MSTR-Interestanddividendcoverage($Bn).cash.$7Bndebt17monthsdividendcoveragethroughUSDreserve~30yearsof~30yearsofBTCcover$1.8BnSTRCBitcoinNAVandCashOut-of-the-moneyconvertiblesandBitcoinandcashcoverageAnnualpreferreddividends/interestSource:Companyfilings,BernsteinanalysisEXHIBIT3:MSTRhasacquired~175KBTCfor~$14BninCY26YTD900,000847,363900,000800,000700,000672,500700,000600,000500,000447,470500,000400,000300,000189,150200,000132,500200,000100,000-20222023202420252026YTDSource:Companyfilings,BernsteinanalysisGautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@6July20266050403020Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24MayJan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25Sep-25Jan-26May-26PrivateCreditUSTreasuryDebtCommoditiesStockOthersPrivatecreditalsoincludesFiguretokenizedcreditBLSH:BullishreceivedGFSC(GibraltarFinancialServicesCommission)approvaltooffertradingintokenizedpositionsBullishamongthefirstregulatedvenuesforissuer-sponsoredtokenizedsecuritiesandwillserveeligiblenon-U.S.investors.Tradingisexpectedtogoliveinthecomingweetoatleast12monthsofdividendandinterestexpense;(ii)$1Bnbuybackprogramforpreferredstock(prioritizingSTRC)and$1BnbuybackprogramforMSTRcommonshares;and(iii)upto$1.25BnBTCmonetizationprogram.SBET:Sharplinkraised$75MnthrougharegistereddirectofferingandusedcapitaltocontinueitsETHtreasurystacquired10,000ETH,increasingtotalETHholdingsto886,725.SincethelaunchofsharebuybackprograminAug’25,SBEThasrepurchased~4Mnshares.GautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@6July2026BTCÐ-Performance5%-1%-3%-1%-3%-10%-28%5%3%2%6%2%9%0%2%0%-40%BTCETHCryptoEquitiesGoldFintechNasdaqS&P500US10-yrBondsLastweekYTDWehaveusedtheBlueStarFintechIndexandtheBloombergUSTreasuryIndexforFintech/US10-yrBondreturSource:Bloomberg,BernsteinanalysisGautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@6July202630-dayReturns-Bitcoinvs.CryptoEquities40%30%20%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%37%9%2%2%2%-5%-10%-19%-11%-10%-19%-17%-29%-17%-29%-20%BTCRIOTCLSKMARAIRENCORZCIFRWULFHOODCOINBLSHMSTRSBETCRCLFIGR2026YTDReturns-Bitcoinvs.CryptoEquities84%75%47%38%38%25%3%0%-17%-19%-17%-28%-27%-28%-32%-34%-41%BTCRIOTCLSKMARAIRENCORZCIFRWULFHOODCOINBLSHMSTRSBETCRCLFIGRAsof5July2026Source:Bloomberg,BernsteinanalysisGautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@6July2026BTCETFFlows(weekly,$Mn)0Asof4July2026Source:Bloomberg,BernsteinanalysisTickerIssuerFlows2026-YTD($mn)TotalFlows($mn)TotalVolumes($mn)Premium(%)Assets($mn)BTCheld(K)GBTCGrayscale(1,916)(25,284)198,4950.01%8,441137IBITBlackRock(2,099)59,9941,363,1390.05%44,907730FBTCFidelity(1,871)10,376244,978-0.03%10,839173ARKB21SharesandARK(373)1,24972,112-0.19%2,03133BITBBitwise(145)1,97659,982-0.15%2,22836EZBCFranklin23306,821-0.11%3526BTCOInvescoandGalaxy(40)16510,9040.07%3345HODLVanEck411,12519,751-0.18%1,006BRRRValkyrie2624,987-0.11%3636BTCWWisdomtree52975,950-0.20%1422DEFIHashdex601210.07%0BTCGrayscaleMini4622,38537,7780.07%3,37155MSBTMorganStanley395395832-0.14%3426Total(5,472)53,0702,025,85074,3681,206Asof4July2026Source:Bloomberg,Bitbo,BernsteinanalGautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@6July202660040060040020024121942412194--80115-6426 一...................(69)(123)(53)--(43)(10)--(102)(200)(102)(200)(400)(600)(800) (166)(161)(174)(127)(222)(176)(269)(261)(269)(261)(254) (327)(348)(611)26/12/202516/01/202606/02/202627/02/202620/03/202610/04/202601/05/202622/05/202612/06/202603/07/2026ETHEETHAFETHETHWETHETHVETHVEZETQETHTETHNetFlowAsof4July2026Source:Bloomberg,BernsteinanalysisTickerFlows2026-YTD($mn)TotalFlows($mn)TotalVolumes($mn)Assets($mn)ETHEGrayscale60,6240.10%1,313ETHABlackRock298,6400.32%4,646FETHFidelity2,10037,6810.06%808ETHWBitwise9,3720.15%ETHGrayscale-Mini56,1070.07%1,432ETHVVaneck3,881-0.04%84EZETFranklin31,4220.12%QETHInvescoGalaxy2998-0.01%TETH21Shares5,2470.07%Total473,971Asof4July2026Source:Bloomberg,BernsteinanalysisGautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@6July2026CapitalInflow2025-26YTD($Mn)MSTRTwentyOneCapitalMetaPlanetStriveTeslaTrumpMedia&TechnologyGroupGDCultureNextTechnologyHolding*NakamotoBoyaaInteractiveCryptoCompaniesMARABullishCOINRIOTCLSKBlockOtherListedCorporateHolders847,36343,51443,00019,86411,5099,5427,5005,8334,4674,09135,30322,01316,49215,68013,47010,2789,032110,70053,1172,7282,6951,2457215984703662802562,2131,3801,0349838446445666,93936,1303,8004,2701,890-1,1308405309048,840Total%ofBTCSupplyHeldbyListedCorporates1,230,0005.9%77,081*Assuming~$87K/BTCforXXI'sBitcoinacquisitioncostSource:Companyfilings,BitBo,BitcoinTreasuries,Bernsteinanalysis(WULF)andCipherDigpipeline,strongorderbook(~$24Bn)withhyperscalersponsorshipandacapital-lightleasemodelleadingtoarapidAI-revenuerampup.Overthelast2years,Bitcoinminershavecontractedout6GWofpowercapacitytohyperscalersandneocloudoperatorsacross17dealsworthover$110Bn-contributing~10%ofAIdatacentersunderconstruction.cryptocapitaloftheworld.TheGENIUSActhasunleashedastablecoinboom.TheSEC’sProjcapitalmarketson-chain.Welcometotheblockchainutilityera,notspeculativeboom-bust.Circleisspearheadingastablecoinfinarating(PT$230).CRCLisbuildingamarket-leadingdigitaldollarstablecoinnetwork,withmarqueedistributionpartinternet-scalefinancialsystembuiltforthenextdecade.Overthelongtermarketstomoney-railoftheinternet,withtotalindustrystablecoinsupplyreaching~$4Tnoverthenextdecadevs.~$225Bntoday.isthemostmisunderstoodcotradingmarket,runsthelargeststablecoinbusinessamongstexchanges(~15%oftotalrevenuesandisnowintegratingwithplatformssuchasShopify),dominatesinstitutionalCrypto(powerscustodyfor8outof11BitcoinETFassetmanagers),acquiredthelargestglobalcryptooptionsexchange(Deribit)andrunsthelargestandfasJPMlaunchedJPMDcoin).Wepresentadeep-diveprimeronCoinbase.Wealsoupdatethemodelandmov&cryptofinancialecosystem,withover$400Bninassetsand~10mnactiveusers.WiththeTrumpAdministration’saspirationtomakeGautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@6July2026worryaboutrisingcompetitionandfeepressure,butthbacktotheU.S.WeexpectCOIN’sEPS(ex-FVgainoncrypto)togrowataCAGRof~38%-weare30%/61%aheadvs.consensuson2025/2026EEPS.withanOutperformrating(PT$30).Thebuy-sideandsell-sidealike,refusetoseewhatwesee-amonsterofacryptocycleover2024-25.Weexpectcryptomarketcaptoreach$7.5Tnvs.$2.6tntoday.ThisleadstoHOODgrowingitscryptorevenuesby9-fold(5xvsconsensus),leadingtousbeing54%aheadonHOOD’s2025consensusrevenuesand3.5times2025consensusearnings.treasuries,andinvestmentplatformsTenglobalassetmanagersnowown~$60BnofBitcoinwrappedasregulatedETFscomparedwith$12BninSeptember2022.By2024end,weexpectWallStreettoreplaceSatoshiasthetopBitcoinwallet.Thisnewinstitutionalera,inourview,couldpushBitcointoahighof$200,000by2025end.ThisBlackbookdeepdivesintothemultipleinvestmentavenuesemergingintheBitcoinecosystemaadditionalBitcoinminerswithahybridBitcoin/AIdatacenterstrategy.WeinitiBitcoinminersareemergingasattractivepartnerstobuildoutAIDataCenters(DC)with‘readypowerintercoDatacenteroperatingcapabilities.Recentdealshavebecomekeycatalysts-$4.7Bnco-hostingdealbetweenCorweaveandCORZ,IREN’sandthefundamentalsofleadingdigitalassetssuchasBitcoinandEthereumandtheirscalability.Weals—regulatorychallenges.Thecregulatoryclarityleadingtotheformalizatshouldstarthere.OurcallonBitcoinemalongthewayandrecentpriceactionpostBTCETFhasnotimpactedhalvingbyApril2024,combinedwithsustainedETFinflowstobreakusomoveupourBitcoinpriceforecastto$200K(from$150Kearlier)toreflectthepositivesurprisefromBitcoinETFflowssincelaunch.BitcoinandCryptorelatedstocksareunderratedandripeforinstitutionacoverageonMicroStrategy(MSTR)withanOutperformrating(PT$2,890).SinceAugust2020,MSTRhastransformedfromasmallsoftwarecompanytothelargestBitcoinholdingcompany,owning1.1%ofworld’sBitcoinsupplyworth~$14.5Bn.MSTR’sfounderchairman,MichaelSaylorhasbecomesscalecapital(bothdebtandequity)foranactiveBitcoinacquisitsimilarproblem:enablingcomputeforAI(andnon-AI)workloads.Inthisnoteset:operatingmargin,revenueyield,fUSD(OUSD),adollar-backedstablecoinforglobalpaymentsandsettlement.MoreMastercard,BlackRock,BNY,Coinbase,Cloudfare,Ripple,Google,anclosed17.5%down.WeaddressinvestorconcernsonCircleposttheannouncementGautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@6July2026benchmarkingthepubliclyannounceddealswithothecanappreciatethatsomeneocloudcontractsarequiteattractive,particularlywhentheneocloudownsitsownrealestate.marketsexchangeinpartnershipwithSusquehannaInternationalGroup(SIG)predictionmarketsbusiness.Robinhood’sunmatcheddistributionwith~13.5mnactivetradersprovidesitastrongedgeinbuildingascalablepredictionsbusinesswithstrongeruniteconomics.WeanswerkeyinvestorquestionsonRothera.Hetherington,co-founderandCEOofLimitlessLabs,theBase-nativepredictionmarketplatformheco-foundedin2023andwhichnowclearscloseto$2bninmonthlyvolume.Hetheringtonwalkedusthroughthecomexpectawinner-take-alloutcome,theshiftipathandwhereheseestherealrisk,theconvergenceofperpetualfuturesandpredictieconomics.Americatoday,andforoncethebiggesteventinsportlandsspushes104matches,a~60%jumpinbettableinventory,intoJuneandJuly,thesoftestseasonalwindowforOSBhatournamentasthesinglelargesthandle&volumecatalystfortheOSB&PredictionMarketssector,worth$3B+ofincre~$5-10Buplifttoconsumervolumes.(WULF)andCipherDigpipeline,strongorderbook(~$24Bn)withhyperscalersponsorshipandacapital-lightleasemodelleadingtoarapidAI-revenuerampup.Overthelast2years,Bitcoinminershavecontractedout6GWofpowercapacitytohyperscalersandneocloudoperatorsacross17dealsworthover$110Bn-contributing~10%ofAIdatacentersunderconstruction.MARAforrecentfinancialandcompanyupdates.WeareOutperformonCORZ(PT$32vs$24earlier),RIOT(PT$30vs$25earlier),CLSK(PT$24-unchanged)andMarket-PerformonMARA(PT$17vs$23earlier).believeFIGR’sstockpriceshouldbecomeareal-timereflectionofblockchainloanvolumes.Thisisuniquetoblockchainmarketplacesandsomethinginvestorswon’tseewithbalancesheetbasedfintechlendingplatforms.FIGR’sliveblockchaindatasuggestsanall-timehighrecordQ2upcoming.Aprilloanvolumeswerereportedat$1.34Bn.On-chainMayMTDvolumesindicate$717Mnandcurrentrun-ratewouldtopAprilvolumes.FIGRguidedfora$3.8Bnto$4.1BnforQ2,whichnowappearsconservativeevenattheupperrangeoftheguidance-halfquartervolumesat~$2.1Bn.adj.EBITDAbeatby~10%.However,webelievethestockhadaviolentmoveup(up~15%)drivenbythe$222MnARCtokensaletoleadinginvestors(BlackRock,a16z,Apollo,etc.)whichisincrementalreveincrementalfeeincomehelpsCRCLoffsettheshat$2.9bnwereup113%YoY.FIGRmanagementguidedforthenextquarterloanvolumesat$3.8Bn-4.1Bn(+35%QoQ),notsurprisingconsideringAprilvolumesat~$1.34Bn.FIGRclockedQ1adjustednetrevenueat$167Mn(+6%vs.consensus,92%YoY)withEBITDAat$82.7Mn(~50%margin).Investorswerecloselywatchingthetake-rate,whichwasflatat3.8%despitefirst-liensharerisingupto20%(from19%lastquarter).Smallbusinessloanshavestartedstrongclocking$60mnthisquarter.powercampuses.Thedealincludeda$3.4BnAIclouddealforNVIDIA’sinternalworkloads.Further,NVIDIAhastherighttoinvest$2.1Bnequityat$70/sharewithvestinglinkedtoIREN’sinstallationof600,000GPUsoverthenext5years.IRENalsorecentlyannounceda$625mn(atsigning)acquisitionofMirantis,asoftwareoFurther,IRENalsohighlighteditsglobalamGautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@6July2026planstodevelopacamat$1.4Bn,missingestimatesby5%.AdjustedEBITDAat$303Mnmissedestimatesby26%.Weakercryptomarketsthrough1Q2026weighedonbothtradingvolumesandsubscriptionrevenues-totalcryptomarketcapandindustrytradingvolumeswerebothdown20%+QoQ.Greenshootsareemergingwith(1)Retailderivativesannualizing$200Mn+revenue,(2annualizing$250Mn+revenue,and(3)Predictionmarketsreaching$100Mn+inannualizedrevenueinMarch(Newproductsaccountfor~10%ofrevenue).Weexpectacryptorecoveryintorestof2026,andexpecttheCLARITYActtobeanear-termcatalysdirect-to-consumerHELOClenderintoatokenizedmarketplaceforcrlender,dismissingtheareup12%MoMto$1.34Bn,secondconsecutivemonthof>$1Bnvolumes(108%YoY).TherecordvolumesindicatenewloanproductsandpartnershipshavestartedrefleweakQ1.bipartisancompromisetextontheDigitabill-thetreatmentofstablecoionpassivestablecoinbalances,whileexplicitlypreservingrewardstiedto"bonafideactivitiesorbonafidetransactions"suchastrading,payments,andusage-drivenincentives.estimatesby7%,withan8%missonEPSat$0.39and9%missonadjustedEBITDA($534Mn).Thetop-lineweaknesswasdrivenbycryptoweakness,weakertake-ratesonbothcryptoandoptions,andsoftersecuritQ1,alreadyfactoringexpectedweaknumbers.Aprilhasstisexpectedtogolivemid2026.IRENhasdemonstratedremarkablesuccessinbuildingitsAIcloudbusiness-150KGPUscontractedsupportinganARRof$3.7BnonfulldeploymentbyQ1’CY27.HalfofthiscapacityisalreadycontractedouttoMicrosoftfor5years,whileremainingcapacitywouldsupportnewcustomersandon-demandcontracts.Sofar,IRENhasbalancedinvestorconcernsregardinghighcapexintensityofcloudbusinesswithcalibratedbalancesheetleverage.The$5.8BnGPUcapexforMSFTcontractis95%fundedatacostof<4%p.ausingMicrosoftprepaymentsandGPU-backedtermfacility.recoveryincryptomarketsandbreakoutrevenuegrowthinpredictionmarkets.For2026E,weare9%aheadofconsensusonrevenue(16%aheadonEPS)drivenbycryptorecovery(31%aheadvs.consensus)andpredictionmarkets(30%aheadvs.consensusonothertransactionrevenue).Similarlyfor2027,weare18%aheadofconsensusonrevenues(25%aheadonEPS),drivenbycryptoandpredictionmarkets.acrosssports,businessandtheeconomy,politics,andculture.Weexpectpredictionmarketvolumestoscaleto~$240Bnin2026andcompoundatan~80%CAGRbetween2025–2030,reaching~$1Tnby2030E,drivenbyfederalregulatoryclarity,mainstreamdistributionpartnerships,andastructurallevel(vs.state-regulatedtraditionalframeworks)isexpandingtheaddressablemarket,whileblockchain-basedtokenizationandintecomputers(CRQCs)posesaknownchallengetoBitcoinandthebroadercryptoecosystem,alongwithallapplicationsutilizincryptographictechniques.Recentbreakthroughs(suchasGoogleQuantumAI'spaperdemonstratinga~20xreductioninqubitrequirements)seemtohaveacceleratedthetimeline,asthechallengeisnolongefrom10soflogicalqubitsto1000soflogicalqubitsisnottrivialandinvolvesmulti-dimensionalbreakthroughgrowthinconsumerloanvolumes.March’26wasthefirstmonthforFiguretocross$1Bninloanvolumes,demonstratingthesuccessofGautamChhugani+912268421416gautam.chhugani@6July2026Figure’stokenizedcreditmarketplacebusiness.Weshareourtakeaways.thekeydifferencesbetweenthepublicneocloudstoday:CRWV(UP,$56),IREN(OP,$125),andNBIS(nofacethesamesector-widestructuralissues,therearesomekeydifferencesamongstthesethree.WecoverneocloudsoutoftwodifferentteamsatBernstein-GlobalDigitalAssetshasminersandcoversIREN.TheU.S.CommunicationsInfrastandrecentlyinitiatedonCRcryptoweaksentimentisofferingbigdiscounts(~60%below2025peak)oncryptostocks.Inourview,thesebusinessesofferexposuretotrilliondollarmarketswithyearsofgrowthahead-predictionmarkets,stablecoins,tokeniztradingat12x’27EEPS(2025-’27EPSCAGR65%-higherbetatocryptorecovery),HOODat18x’27EEPS(2025-’27EPSCAGR32%)andFIGRat10xEV/27E’EBITDA(2025-’27EEPSCAGR68%,EBITDACAGR48%).WeseestrongerresilienceparticularlyinHOODandFIGRgivenrevenuesunlinkedtocryptorecovery-Figureisapureblockchaintokenizationbusiness.Cryptoismere~20%ofHOODrevCircle:Don'tconflatestablecoinissuerdistributes.TheClarityActtargetsdistribution.However,thestablecoinrewardcarveoutsretain$150Kasour2026year-endexpectedpriceforBitcoin.ThroughtheBitcoin50%draw