中国经济简报+-+2025年12月特别关注：中国的家庭储蓄与金融中介-EN

Telephone:202-473-1000Internet:e-mail:pubrights@.government.QuestionsandfeedbackcanbeaddressedtoTianshuChe 1 5 5Shipmentstoemergingmarkets 7 9 Implicationsfordome 6 7 8 9 Table1.Chinaselec VASEANFinTechsaSeasonally-AVIWTOWorldTry/yYear-on-YearYtdYear-3mmaThree-MonthMovin1pressuresandtighterlocalsupporttogrowthwithChinaEconomicOutlook2022202320242025e2026f2027fRealGDPgrowth(%)Consumerpriceindex(%change,average)2.0Currentaccountbalance(%ofGDP)0.3Consolidatedfiscalbalance(%ofGDP)*-6.1-5.5-6.5-8.2-7.7-7.0Source:WorldBank.Note:e=estimate,f=forecast,*=WorldBankstaffestimates.1BasedonNBS’sFlowofFundsdata.23ChinasustaineditsgrowthmomentuminQ3,……supportedbyresilientexports.A.RealGDPgrowthB.ExportbydestinationPercent,y/yPercentPercent,y/yPercent,q/qsaIndex,2019=100500Oct-19Oct-20Oct-21Oct-22Oct-23Oct-24Oct-25Japan+KoreaAfrica200150100EUASEANLatAm250Sep-22Sep-23Sep-24Sep-2586420-286420-2Realq/qsagrowth(RHS)Realy/ygrowthHowever,householdspendingremainscautiousamid…andsubduedlabormarketconditions.renewedweaknessinthepropertysector…C.HousingmarketindicatorsD.LabormarketindicatorsUnemploymentinsuranceUnemploymentinsurancepayouts(reversed)EmploymentPMIsBusinessconditionsindex:recruitment2022202320242025210-1-2-3Newhousingsales(value)SeasonalSeasonally-adjustedZ-score,3mmaNewhosingsales(floorspace)HousingnewstartsIndexIndex,2021July=1006040200Weakdemandsuppressedconsumerprices…E.CPIinflationOct-21Oct-22Weakdemandsuppressedconsumerprices…E.CPIinflation3FoodCore:servicesCore:goods2EnergyCPI10-1-2Oct-22Apr-23Oct-23Apr-24Oct-24Apr-25Oct-25…andtemperedprivatesectorcreditgrowth,…F.Creditgrowth-2Oct-22Apr-23Oct-23Apr-24Oct-24Apr-25Oct-25BankloanGovernmentbondsOthersShadowbankingCorporatebondsCreditgrowth864204…evenasfiscalpolicyremainedaccommodative…G.ConsolidatedfiscaldeficitsPercent,Percent,shareofGDP-10FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2023202420250-2-4-6-8China’sgrossdomesticsavingsratehasbeenhighfordecades,…I.GrossdomesticsavingratesbycountrygroupsHouseholdscontinuetochannelsavingsintodeposits,…K.Depositinflowsintobanksbysource…butfacedimplementationhurdlesatthelocallevel.H.ProgrammedandrealizedbudgetPercent,Percent,shareofbudgetPublicFinanceGovernmentFundOverallRevenueExpenditure100806040200…withhouseholdscontributingasignificantshare.J.Compositionofdomesticsavings...despiteloworsometimesnegativerealratesofreturn.L.RealdepositratesSource:NBS,PBC,MOF,WIND,CEIC,andWBstaffcalculations.Manufacturinginvest2Fixedassetinvestment(FAI)data,adjustedusingtheGDPdeflator,showthatrealmanufacturingFAIfellby1.3percenty/yinJuly-October,comparedwith8.3-percentgrowthinQ2.AlthoughFAIstatisticsdifferfromthedefinitionsinthenationalaccounts,theyareoftenusedasproxyindicatorsofsectoralinvestment.56Percent,y/yPercentPercent,y/yPercent,q/qsaPercentagepoints6420-2Sep-23Mar-24Sep-24Mar-25Sep-25GrossCapitalFormationRealGDPgrowthFinalconsumptionNetexports8Realy/ygrowth10Realq/qsagrowth(RHS)1088644200-2-2Sep-22Sep-23Sep-24Sep-2520WageandsalaryNetbusinessNetincomefromNetincomefromincomepropertytransfer20WageandsalaryNetbusinessNetincomefromNetincomefromincomepropertytransfer2015-2019,Q1-Q32023-2024,Q1-Q32020-2022,Q1-Q32025,Q1-Q3864SeasonalSeasonally-adjustedZ-score,3mmaPercent,ytdUnemploymentinsurancepayouts(reversed)EmploymentPMIsBusinessconditionsindex:recruitment2022202320242025210-1-2-3Source:ChinaNBS,PBOC,CheungKongGraduateSchoolofBusiness,WorldBankstaffestimates.Note:InFigureC,theemploymentPMIiscalculatedastheaverageofthemanufacturingandnon-manufacturingemploymentPMIs.ThebusinessconditionsindexisfromCKGSB,recruitmentindexreflectsfirms’expectationsforemploymentoverthenextsixmonths.InFigureD,weusenominalincomegrowth.7Index,2021July=100NumberofyearlyIndex,2021July=100Numberofyearlyincomesrequiredtopurchasea60m2dwelling100Newhousingsales(value)Newhosingsales(floorspace)Housingnewstarts806040200Oct-21Oct-22Oct-23Oct-24Oct-250ChinaThailandRep.ofKoreaJapanMalaysia252019202422.320516.9Source:ChinaNBS,KoreaRealEstateBoard,StatisticalKorea,JapanStatisticalBureau,LandInstituteofJapan,DepartmentofStatisticsMalaysia,MinistryofFinanceofMalaysia,NationalStatisticalOfficeofThailand,ThailandRealEstateInformationCenter,WorldBankstaffestimates.Note:InFigureB,weusedisposableincomepercapitaandhousingpricespersquaremetertoestimatetheprice-to-incomeratio.ForMalaysiaandThailand,whereonlytransactionvaluesperunitaredisclosedratherthanpersquaremeter,weapproximateunitsizesbyassuminganaverageof117m²forMalaysiaand98m²forThailand.Shipmentstoemergingmarkets8machinery,electronics,andelectJuly-October.Index,2019=Index,2019=100Percentagepoints0Oct-19Oct-20Oct-21Oct-22Oct-23Oct-24Oct-25Japan+KoreaAfrica15010050EUASEANLatAm250200-10-1522Q122Q323Q123Q324Q124Q325Q125Q3OtherLow-techmfggoodsTransport&specializedequipmentMachinery&electronics&electricalCommoditiesImport50-5Source:ChinaCustoms;HaverAnalytics;WTOTradeRemediesDataPortal;WorldBankstaffestimates.Note:LatAm=LatinAmerica.9Figure4.StrongcurrentaccouFinancialandcapitalaccountReserveaccumulationFinancialandcapitalaccountReserveaccumulationCurrentaccountNeterrorandomisssions2010-142015-192020-22202425Q125Q225Q3543210-1-2-3-4-5Percent,sharePercent,shareofGDPPercent,shareofGDP-32010-142015-192020-23202425Q125Q225Q3GoodstradebalanceNetincomefromabroadServicetradebalanceCurrentaccountbalance6543210-1-2Source:SAFE;WorldBankstaffestimates.Mining&quarryingRawmaterialsProcessingConsumergoodsPPIOct-22Apr-23Oct-23Apr-24Oct-24Apr-25Oct-25420-2-4-63FoodCore:servicesCore:goods2EnergyCPI10-1-2Oct-22Apr-23Oct-23Apr-24Oct-24Apr-25Oct-25Source:NBS,WorldBankstaffestimates.contractionandconstrainingTaxrevenueLandsalesOthersConsolidatedrevenue2050-5-10CentralLocal:capital-landsalesrelatedLocal:capital-otherLocal:currentConsolidatedexpenditure50-5PublicFinanceGovernmentFundPublicFinanceGovernmentFundOverallRevenueExpenditure100806040200Percent,sharePercent,shareofbudgetPercent,shareofGDP2023202420250-2-4-6-8-10FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecSource:MinistryofFinance;WorldBankstaffestimates.Note:Otherincludesfees,finesandleasingofstate-ownedassetsinPFBandnon-landleaserevenuefromGFB.PanelB:expenditureexcludestheone-offcentralgovernmentcapitalinjectionintostate-ownedbanks.Percent,sharePercent,shareofGDP-2Oct-22Apr-23Oct-23Apr-24Oct-24Apr-25Oct-25BankloanGovernmentbondsOthersShadowbankingCorporatebondsCreditgrowth86420OpenmarketoperationsLendingfacilitiesRRRchangeOutrightrepoGovbondpurchaseNetliquidityprovision420-2-4-62017201820192020202120222023202425YTD6Source:PBC;WorldBankstaffestimates.expansionintotalasan-25Apan-25Apr-25Jul-25Oct-25160CSI300HSCEIPercentIndex,PercentIndex,January20,2025=10050Sep-23Mar-24Sep-24Mar-25Sep-25Source:PBC,CEIC.SystemJoint-stockbanksRuralcommercialbanksLargestatebanksCitycommercialbanks20theshareofgeneralfiscaltrPercent,shareofGDPPercent,shareofGDP35GeneralSpecial302520502015201820212024GDPpercapita,RMBthousandJiangsu200250005010015060402010080Percent,shareofGDPTianjinGansuHainanPercent,shareofGDPTianjinGansuHainanJiangxiAnhuiYunnanHebeiShandongChongqingRatioBeijingandShanghaiaverage0.200-2-4-6-8-10200020052010201520202025Source:WorldBankstaffestimatesbasedonMoFandNBSdata.Note:Localgovernmentdebtistheofficialtotalofgeneralandspecialgovernmentoutstandingdebt.GDPpercapitaismeasuredusingtheregisteredresidentpopulation,asopposedtothehukoupopulation.Fiscaldeficitsincluderevenuesfromthegeneralpublicbudget,thegovernmentfundbudgetandtransfersfromthecentralgovernmenttolocalgovernments.InFigureD,12highdebtriskprovinceswereclassifiedbytheauthoritiesin2023,includingTianjin,Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Guangxi,Chongqing,Guizhou,Yunnan,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia,andInnerMongolia,whichexitedthelistinJuly2025(Chen,2025).accommodative,aimTable1.ChinaselectedeconomicindAnnualpercentchangeunlessindicatedotherwise2022202320242025f2026f2027fRealGDPgrowth,atconstantmarketpricesPrivateConsumption9.04.8GovernmentConsumption4.34.2GrossFixedCapitalFormationExports,GoodsandServices-Imports,GoodsandServices-0.9RealGDPgrowth,atconstantfactorpricesAgriculture4.24.03.0IndustryServicesInflation(Consumerpriceindex)2.0Currentaccountbalance(%ofGDP)0.3Netforeigndirectinvestment,Inflow(%ofGDP)-0.1-0.8-0.9-0.5-0.2-0.1Consolidatedfiscalbalance(%ofGDP)*-6.1-5.5-6.5-8.2-7.7-7.0Governmentdebt(%ofGDP)49.454.763.070.877.782.2Primarybalance(%ofGDP)-5.1-4.5-5.5-7.3-6.7-6.0Source:WorldBank.Note:f=forecast(baseline).*WorldBankstaffestimates.PercentMIlPercentMIllions,personsNationalUrbanRural201820192020202120222023202420252026500450400350300250200150100500NationalUrbanRural20182019202020212022202320242025202660504030200Source:WorldBankstaffestimatesusingtabulateddatafromNBSandWorldBank’sGDPgrowthprojections.Note:Lastgroupeddataavailabletocalculatepovertyisfor2021.ProjectionsbasedonpercapitaGDPgrowthestimates,usinganeutraldistributionassumptionwithpass-through0.85topercapitahouseholdconsumption.InJune2025,theWorldBankupdatedthethreeglobalpovertylinesitusestomonitorglobalpovertyandcomparepovertyreductionprogressacrosscountries.Theupdatereflectschangesinthecostoflivingandconsumptionpatternsworldwideusingthe2021purchasingpowerparity(PPP)ratesandrecentrevisionstonationalpovertylinesbymanycountries.ThenewinternationalpovertylinehasbeenupdatedtoUS$3/daywhilethelinesforlowermiddle-incomecountriesanduppermiddle-incomecountrieshavebeenupdatedtoUS$4.2/dayandUS$8.3/dayrespectively.PovertyratesforChinaatthenewbenchmarkofUS$8.30/dayin2021PPPareslightlyhigherthanthosereportedinpreviousWorldBankreportsusingUS$6.85/dayin2017PPP.predictable.Accelerprojects.Additionally,ac4SeetheStateCouncilofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(2025).5DomesticsavingisdefinedasGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)lesstotalfinalconsumptionexpenditure.6Householdsavingisdefinedashouseholddisposableincomelesstotalhouseholdconsumptionexpenditure.DFigureDFigure14.epositinflowsintobanksbysource7Thepeergroupincludesthelargestinsurancemarkets(US,Japan,UK,France,Germany,andSouthKorea),marketswithsimilarinsurancepremiumtoGDPratio(Norway,Morocco,India,Luxembourg,Cyprus,andNepal);marketswithsimilarGDPpercapita(Argentina,Kazakhstan,Russia,SaintLucia,DominicanRepublic,andMalaysia),HongKongSAR,MacaoSAR,otherhigh-savingsrateAsianjurisdictions,andotherlargedevelopingcountries(Brazil,SouthAfrica,MexicoandTürkiye).8SeeWorldBankandDevelopmentResearchCenteroftheStateCouncil(2019).9Low-costcredithasbeenchanneledtoprioritysectors—includingadvancedmanufacturing,strategicemergingindustrieslinkedto“newproductiveforces,”andgreendevelopment—throughstructuralcreditfacilities(WorldBank,2025a).Diversifyingsavingoptionsforhouseholdsproducts,couldfurth10Chinalaunchedaprivatepensionscheme(Pillar3)inNovember2022asapilotprogramin36citiesandregions.Thisvoluntary,government-supported,andmarket-orientedsystemwasdesignedtocomplementtheexistingbasicstatepensionandenterpriseannuityplanstoaddressthechallengesofarapidlyagingpopulation.ExpandingconsumercreditthroughdAllen,F.andGuX.2021.“ShadowBankinginChinaComparedtoOtherCountries”,TheManchesterSchool,SpecialIssueArticle,Vol.89:407–419.Allen,F.,J.Qian,C.ShanandL.Zhu.2024.“DissectingtheLong-TermPerformanceoftheChineseStockMarket,”TheJournalofFinance,vol79(2),pp.993-1054,April.Chamon,Marc