亚太地区旅游零售趋势洞察2026 Asia Pacific travel retail pulse A health check and the innovation imperative 2026

AsiaPacifictravelretailpulse

Ahealthcheckandtheinnovationimperative|2026

©OliverWyman2

AwordfromTFWA

Franck

Waechter

ManagingDirector

TaxFreeWorldAssociation

ThefindingsofthisjointTFWAandOliverWymanstudyarriveatadefiningmomentfortravelretailinAsiaPacific.Whilerecoveryisclearlyunderway,thereportalsohighlightsamorefundamentalreality:theindustryisnolongernavigatingatemporary

disruption,butadaptingtoastructuralresetinhowconsumerstravel,shop,andengagewithbrands.

Volatilityisnolongeranexceptiontomanagearound—ithasbecomeapermanentoperatingenvironment.Geopoliticaltensions,shiftingaviationdynamics,changingtourismpatterns,andevolvingconsumerexpectationsarereshapingthe

foundationsofthesector.Inthiscontext,growthcannotrelysolelyonthereturnofhistoricaltravelerflowsorthegradualnormalizationofdemand.

Oneofthemostimportantconclusionsofthisstudyisthattravelretailnowfacesastrategicchoice.Thesectorcancontinue

competingprimarilyontransactionaladvantagesandtraditionalcommercialmodels,oritcanredefineitsrolewithinthebroadertravelexperience.Increasingly,consumers—particularlyyoungerandmoreinternationallyconnectedtravelers—expect

relevance,personalization,convenience,andemotionalengagementasmuchastheyexpectpricecompetitiveness.

ThereportalsousefullychallengessimplifiedassumptionsaroundAsia’srecoverytrajectory.WhileChineseoutbounddemandremainshighlysignificant,growthisbecomingmorediversified,withIndiaandseveralSoutheastAsianmarketsemergingasincreasinglyinfluentialcontributors.Thisevolutionrequiresamorenuancedunderstandingoftravelerbehavior,cultural

expectations,andspendingmotivations.Thenotionofasingle“APACtravelerprofile”israpidlybecomingoutdated.

Atthesametime,theaccelerationofdigitalcommerceandAI-drivenpersonalizationisredefiningcompetitiveadvantageacrosstheindustry.Thequestionisnolongerwhethertravelretailshouldembracetechnologicaltransformation,buthowquicklythesectorcantranslatedata,consumerinsight,andoperationalagilityintomoremeaningfulcustomerexperiences.Inmany

respects,thecompetitivebenchmarkfortravelretailisnolongerotherairports—itisthebroaderluxury,retail,anddigitalecosystemcompetingforthesameconsumerattentionandspending.

ForTFWA,thisstudyreinforcestheimportanceofdeepercollaborationacrosstheindustry.Airports,retailers,brands,andservicepartnerswillneedtomovebeyondtraditionallysiloedapproachestocreatemoreconnected,flexible,andtraveler-centric

ecosystems.Futuregrowthwilldependnotonlyonpassengervolumes,butonthesector’scollectiveabilitytoincreaserelevance,trust,andengagementthroughoutthejourney.

OnbehalfofTFWA,IwouldliketosincerelythankOliverWymanforthequalityanddepthofthisresearch.Theiranalysisprovidesvaluableperspectiveatatimewhentheindustrymustbalanceshort-termuncertaintywithlong-termtransformation.TFWA

remainscommittedtosupportingitsmembersthroughinsight,dialogue,andplatformsthathelptheglobaltravelretailcommunityanticipatechange,strengthenresilience,andshapethefutureofourindustrywithconfidence.

©OliverWyman3

AwordfromOliverWyman

MattAusten

ManagingPartnerAsiaPacific

WaldemarJap

Partner

PedroYip

Partner,APACHeadofConsumer

JackyLui

Partner

WearepleasedtopartnerwithTFWAonthisyear’sreport,continuingOliverWyman’sdecade-longsurveyofAsiaPacifictravelretail.

Overthepasttenyears,ourresearchhastracedatrajectoryofextraordinarytransformation—fromaperiodofunprecedentedexpansionandtheprofounddisruptionofthepandemictothecurrentstructuralreset.Whilethemarketoutlookfor2026isnotablystrong,characterizedbyaresurgenceinChineseaffluentconsumerconfidenceandarenewedintenttotravel,themarketisnotreturningtopreviousstatusquo.Instead,wenowstandatadefiningmoment.Theshiftsinhowconsumerstravel,spend,andengagewithluxuryarestructuralandpermanent.Domesticspendingwillcontinuetoremaindominant,andtheconsumer’spursuitofvaluehasevolvedbeyondthepricetagtoencompasstheintegrityandrelevanceofthetotalshoppingexperience.

Theimplicationsfortravelretailersareclear:Tocapitalizeonthisresurgenceindemand,theindustrymustfundamentallyredefineitsproposition.Successinthisnewlandscaperequirescreatingvaluethattranscendstraditionalpromotionallevers.Thewinningleadersinthenextdecadewillcomefromthosewhoorchestrateconsistentbrandnarrativesacrossfragmentedchannelsandgeographieswithspeedandsurgicalrelevance.Thisnecessitatesviewingomnichannelstrategiesnotasanelectivedigitallayer,butastheessentialinfrastructureofaseamless,data-drivencustomerjourney.

Furthermore,therelationshipbetweenretailersandbrandsmustevolveintooneofstrategicco-creation.Fromcurated,immersiveexperiencestohighlyexclusive,time-limitedofferings,thegoalmustbetoamplifytheperceptionofdesirabilityandlocalizedrelevance.Investmentinfront-linetalentanddigitalagilityisnolongerasecondarypriority;itisafoundationalrequirementfordeliveringhigh-touchserviceatscalewithinavolatileoperatingenvironment.

Thereisanurgentmandateforthetravelretailsectortomovebeyondalegacyprice-ledmodeltowardavalue-addingapproach,onethatsupportsbrandsindeliveringacohesivestoryanddeepeningconsumerengagement.Forbrands,thetravelretailchannelmustbefullyintegratedintobroaderstrategicgoalstounlocksynergisticopportunitiesacrosstheglobalbusinessecosystem.

Finally,weextendoursinceregratitudetoTFWAfortheircontinuedpartnership,andtothemanyindustrystakeholderswhoseinsightshavehelpedshapethisanalysis.Wehopethisreportservesasavaluablecompassaswecollectivelynavigatethenextchapteroftravelretailwithrenewedconfidenceandstrategicclarity.

©OliverWyman4

Context:AsAsiaPacifictravelretailmovesbeyondyearsofturbulence,weare

seekingtounderstandwhatwilldrivethenextdecadeofgrowth

APACtravelretailReceipt(includingDaigou)

InUS$billions

2026andbeyondAnewreset

2015-2019:

2023-2025

Thesubduedrecovery

2020-2022

COVIDdisruptionandchannelpivot

China-ledacceleratedgrowth

Hyper-Growth:

OperationalHalt:

Brandsandoperatorsnavigatedthecessationofinternationaltravelamidgloballockdowns

ProgressiveRebound:

Agradual,fragmentedrecoveryinsteadofanexplosivereturnofinternational

travelers

CapitalizingonexplosiveoutboundChinesetourismdemandandglobalpricedisparities

ShadowChannelDominance:

Themarketwassustainedbydaigou,especiallythroughdomesticduty-freechannels

MacroeconomicHeadwinds:

WeakconsumersentimentlinkedtoChina’seconomicslowdownandglobalgeopoliticaltensions

The"ChinaPlaybook":

AracetodevelopthebestChinaplaybooktocaptureconsistentdouble-digit

spendinggrowth

46

313230323131

27

Thenextstructureengine:

WherewillAsia’snextwaveofgrowthcomefrom?

Value-consciousconsumers:

Howdoweunlockconversionandensuretravelretailcontinuetobringa

compellingpropositiontotravelers?

AIacceleration:

HowwillAIandinnovationredefine

competitiveedgeandoperationmodelsinfuture?

201520192020202120222023202420252026+

Source:GenerationResearch,OliverWymananalysis

threekeyareasthatarecriticaltounlockingthe

nextwaveofgrowth

Chinesecontributedtoover60%travelretailgrowthinthelastwave.

Ourresearchnowsuggeststheywillonlyaccountfor40%inthenextdecade.

WhoarethenextsetoftravelersthatwillfuelAsiaPacific’stravelretail

growth?

Traditionally,travelretailgrowthhasbeenlargelytrafficdriven,duetorisingincome,globalconnectivity,etc.

Since2021,however,travelretailgrowthonlycaptured~70%oftrafficgrowthinAsia;whileconsumersresumedtravelingandspending

moreduringtheirtrips,thesamemagnitudeofgrowthdidnothappenintravelretail.

Whatarethereasonsbehindthis?And

whatdobrandsandoperatorsneedtodotounlockthesemissingopportunities?

Ifthelastdecadewasaboutservices,loyaltyandcustomization,thenthenextdecadeisdefinitelyaboutAIandinnovation.

Over76%ofthetravelretailexecutiveswe

surveyedhaveindicatedAIandinnovationascriticaltotheirstrategy;yetonly40%are

puttingtheseasaninvestmentpriority.

WheredoweseeAIandinnovation

playingakeyroletofuelthenextdecadeofgrowthinAsiaPacific?

©OliverWyman5

©OliverWyman6

Wehaveconsolidatedourtravel-retailexperience,

proprietaryconsumerresearch,andexecutiveperspectivesinthisreport

Ourknowledge

Latestsurveyoverview

Executivesurvey

Clientcoverage

10

2,250

40+

10

years

consumers

seniorexecutives

luxury-clientprojectsinAPAC

ofresearchonAsiantraveler

inMainlandChinaand

surveyedandinterviewedto

overthepast12months

andluxuryshopperbehavior

andspending

Indiasurveyedin2026

providemarketintelligence

©OliverWyman7

AsAPACtravelandspendingrebounds,thenextdecadeoftravelretailgrowthwillbedrivenbynotonlyChinese,butalsootherssuchasIndiansandKoreans

Chinese,Indians,andKoreanswillpowercoming

•InChina,forthefirsttimesince2022,therehasbeenadefinitiveinflectionpointinaffluentconsumers’sentiment,reboundingupfromanindexof71in2025to115in2026;morethanapsychologicalrecovery,thishastranslatedintotangibleaccelerationofgrowthin:

–Traveldemand(net44%ofaffluenthouseholdswilltraveloverseasmore,up47ppvs.2025)

–Willingnesstospendonluxury(net31%ofaffluenthouseholdswillspendmoreonluxury,up37ppvs.2025)

•Ourfindingsrevealtheheterogeneityofgrowthandupwardmomentum:Thereisastructuredivergenceacrosscategoriesandcohorts:

–Categories:beautyandfashiongainmomentum,whilewatchesandjewelryremainsoft

–Consumercohorts:babyboomers,ratherthanyoungerconsumers,aredrivinggrowth,raisingconcernsaboutthesustainabilityandfutureshapeofChineseluxurytravelspend

•Inthenextdecade,therewillbearecalibrationoftheregionalgrowthengine:

–WhileChinesespendwillremainimportant,theirproportionalcontributiontoAsiatravelretailgrowthisexpectedtoreducefromc.65%historicallytoc.40%

–IndianandKoreantravelersareexpectedtotakeonalargershare(20%and10%)offuturegrowth;theyalsohavedifferentneeds,spendingbehaviors,categorypreferences,andserviceexpectations

•Winninginthenextdecadewillrequireahyper-dynamicmodeltoaddresscomplextravelerprofilesandneeds;brandsandoperatorsmustevolvefromasingleChina-ledplaybookandtransformtheir

proposition,offerings(assortment,activation,service),andoperationmodelswiththeagilityrequiredtoaddressahighlyheterogeneousandrapidlyshiftingtravelerbase

Source:OliverWyman’sChineseTravelerSurvey(2025,2026),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman8

Travelretailgrowthhasonlycapturedabout70%oftrafficandtourism

spendmomentumtoday,suggestingabout$5billioninmissedopportunities

$5BNmissedopportunitiestoday:brandsand

operatorsneedtoradicallytransformproposition

andoperatingmodeltoremaincompetitive

•Opportunitiesleftonthetable:Today,APACtravelretailonlycapturedc.71%offootfallgrowthand67%oftourismspendgrowthsincethere-openingofborder;Thistranslatesto$5BNuntappedpotentials.

•Thisreportrevealstwoprimarycatalystsfortheperformanceshortfall:

–DomesticRepatriation:Luxuryspendhasbeenredirectedintodomesticchannels

–StagnantValuePropositions:Airportretailpropositionsarepresentlynotcompellingenoughtodriveconversionandspendgrowth

•Domesticrepatriation:Acriticalindicatoristheoverseas’shareofChineseconsumers’luxuryspend,

whichhasmorethanhalvedsince2019;Thisisdrivenbycompellingdomesticretailpropositions,theriseofHainan,andtheshiftintravelpurpose

•ConversionandspendgrowthinAsia’sairportshastrailedglobalpeers:however,ourresearchrevealsthatopportunitiesexistforbrandsandoperatorstomaximizequalitytimewithtravelers,transform

beyondprice-ledpropositions,andrespondwithgreateragilitytomeetdiversetravelerneeds

•Winningbrandsarealreadyshowingtheblueprintsforsuccessfulopportunitycapture:

–LocalizedExclusivity:Curatingregion-specificjustificationsforpurchasethatcannotbereplicatedindomesticmarkets.

–End-to-EndEngagement:Orchestratingbrandpresenceacrosstheentiretravelerjourney,movingbeyondthephysicalstorefront.

–CollaborativeIntelligence:Leveragingtripartitedata-sharingagreements(Brand-Retailer-Airport)todriveprecisionconversionandoperationalsynergy.

Source:GenerationResearch,Governmentstatistics,OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman9

Keyenablers:InnovationandAIareviewedbyindustryleadersascriticaltosuccess

InnovationandAIwillbecriticaltotransforming

travelretailoperationsoverthenextdecade

•76%ofseniorexecutivesviewinnovationascriticaltosustaintravelretailgrowth;themostburningneedsincludeelevatingtravelerexperiences,improvingconversion,andboostingoperationalefficiency

•Yetthereisaninvestmentdisconnect:whileexecutivesrecognizeinnovationascritical,only40%rankitasatopinvestmentpriority

•AIadoptionremainsearlyandlargelyfocusedonback-of-houseusecases.Evenso,customer-facingapplicationsareapproachinganinflectionpoint,particularlyinpersonalization,CRM,andtargetedoffers:

–Only7%ofexecutivessaytheyhavedeployedsolutionstoday,while53%plantodosointhenext12months

•ThebiggerstrategicshiftisthatAIwillincreasinglyshapetravelerdecisionsbeforeandduringthejourney:

–TheuseofAIwillinfluencetripplanning,branddiscovery,productrecommendations,andwheretravelerschoosetospend

•TravelretailersandbrandsneedtobecomeAI-readynowtocompetesuccessfully:productinformation,pricing,availability,andbrandpositioningmustbeaccurate,consistent,andeasilysurfacedacrossdigital

andAI-enabledtouchpointsinrealtime

•Beyondimprovingefficiency,winningplayerswilluseAItocreatedemand,personalizepropositions,andconverttravelersacrossthefulljourney

Source:OliverWyman’sTravelRetailExecutiveSurvey(2026),OliverWymananalysis

Chinese,Indians,andKoreans

retailgrowth

01

©OliverWyman11

Ourresearchassessestwogrowthlensestoidentifyfromwherethenextdecade

ofAPACtravelretailgrowthwillarise

Chinarecovery:howmuchgrowthremains,andwherewillitcomefrom?

•HowhaveChinesetravelers’sentimentandspendintentionsevolved?

•HowmuchshouldChinesetravelersbeexpectedtocontributetothenextdecadeofAPACtravelretailgrowth?

•WhichChinesetraveleropportunitiesaremostattractivebyconsumerprofile,category,anddestination?

BeyondChina:whichsourcemarketswilldrivethenextwaveofgrowth?

•WhichmarketsbeyondChinawillbecomethekeycontributorstoAPACtravelretailgrowth?

•HowdothesetravelersdifferfromChinesetravelersinprofile,needs,andshoppingbehavior?

•Whatchangeswillbrandsandoperatorsneedtomakeinproposition,assortment,service,andactivationtocapturethem?

©OliverWyman12

China:Consumersentimenthasincreased,leadingtogrowthininternational

traveldemandandwillingnesstospendonluxury

Consumersentimentisstrengthening…

+62%

2026vs.2025Chinese

affluentconsumersentiment

>

Heightenedwillingnessforinternationaltravel…

32%

+2%vs.2025

2026percentageofhigh-income

householdswhoplantotravel

overseas

Risingintentionsforluxuryspending…

51%

+36%vs.2025

2026Chineseaffluenttravelers

expectingtospendmoreon

personalluxurygoods

Source:OliverWyman’sChineseTravelerSurvey(2025,2026),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman13

InChina,affluent

consumersentimentisgrowingforthefirst

timesince2022

OliverWymanAffluentChineseConsumerSentimentIndex,2022to2026

High-incomehouseholdsonly(RMB30,000+permonth)

100

2022

75

2024

115

2026

71

2025

Aggregatedindexofcurrent,one-year,andfive-yearfor2022indexedto100;N=4,000(2022),1,500(2024),2,000(2025),1,250(2026)Source:OliverWyman’sChineseTravelerSurvey(2022,2024,2025,2026),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman14

Chineseconsumerconfidencereboundedsharplyin2026forboththenear-

termandlonger-term

OliverWymanaffluentconsumersentimentindexbytimehorizon,2026

High-incomehouseholdsonly(CNY30,000+permonth)

Change

SentimentIndex

PositiveNeutral

Negative

+47

116

64%

34%

2%

2026

+47

117

73%

24%

3%

2026

+35

109

75%

23%

1%

2026

-35

73

18%

65%

17%

2024

-19

81

26%

61%

13%

2024

-3

70

19%

58%

23%

2025

-7

74

26%

52%

22%

2025

-8

74

21%

61%

17%

2024

-4

69

18%

60%

22%

2025

1yearfromnow5yearsfromnow

109

59%

35%

6%

2022

101

68%

28%

4%

2022

81

34%

45%

21%

2022

Current

Aggregatedindexofcurrent,one-year,andfive-yearexpectations,with2022indexedto100;N=4,000(2022),1,500(2024),2,000(2025),1,250(2026)Source:OliverWyman’sChineseTravelerSurvey(2022,2024,2025,2026),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman15

Thisissupportedbyanimprovingmacroeconomicenvironmentsince2025

Strongstockmarketperformance

4,807

4,564

20222023202420252026

CSI300index

Strongstockmarketperformanceboostsoverallwealthgrowthamongasset-holdingclasses,particularlywitholdergenerations

AppreciationofChineseYuan

CNY-USDexchangerate

0.157

0.146

20222023202420252026

Appreciatingyuanboostsconsumers’

purchasingpowerforimportsandoverseastravel

个

Housingpolicysupportstabilizeswealthexpectations

PropertyeasingpolicyacrossChineselocalitieshelpsreducefearsofcontinuoushome-valueerosion(despitetherecoveryofthepropertymarketstilllagging)

EarlystabilizationinTier1citiesstrengthensconfidence

US-Chinatradede-escalationhasimprovedconfidenceineconomicgrowth

US-Chinatradewarin2025worsened

consumerconfidence.Withtradewarde-

escalation,confidenceineconomicgrowthhasimproved

Source:Bloomberg,CEIC,NationalBureauofStatisticsofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,S&PGlobal,expertinterviews,OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman16

whileyoungercohortsremaincautiousonthelong-termoutlook

OliverWymanconsumersentimentindexbyagegroup,2026

High-incomehouseholdsonly(RMB30,000+permonth)

GenZ

Current

1-year

5-year

2026Overall

2025Overall

69

Delta

+44

118

115

102

113

Millennials

110

114

105

111

73

+38

GenX

113

115

112

114

71

+43

Baby

Boomers

127

125

115

123

67

+56

Source:OliverWyman’sChineseTravelerSurvey(2025,2026),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman17

Traffictoimprove:about15millionmoreChineseconsumersareexpectedto

travelinternationallyin2026

Percentageofhigh-incomehouseholdswhotravelinternationallyinayear1

High-incomehouseholdsonly(CNY30,000+permonth)

32%

2019Pre-COVID

>

24%

2023

26%

2024

30%

2025

32%

2026

-8pp+2pp+4pp+2pp

c.140-150M

Samelevelas

Singapore’stotal

Totaloutboundtravelers(affluent&non-affluent)

2025arrivals

c.155-165M

+15M

123M

155M

88M

1.Definedasanyinternationaltravelinayear,includingoutboundtripstoHongKong,MacauandTaiwan

Source:MinistryofCultureandTourismofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,OliverWyman’sChineseTravelerSurvey(2023,2024,2025,2026),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman18

Highertrafficreflectedinrecentlongholidaytravelrecords

2026NewYear2026ChineseNewYear2026QingmingFestival

“Short-distanceexcursionshavegainedsignificanttraction.”

+5.7%

Domestic1

+5.2%

+6.8%

TheStateCouncilofthePeople'sRepublicofChina2026/1

International

+39.1%2

+10.2%

+4.4%

“LongerJourneysandPremiumTravelGainMomentum.”

T2026/2

1.Dailytravelercounts;2.3-dayholidayin2026ascomparedto1dayin2025

Source:MinistryofCultureandTourismofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,TheStateCouncilofthePeople'sRepublicofChina,

T

,OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman19

Significantupliftobservedintravelpreferencetowardsshorthauldestinations,

suchasSou