2025年企业和投资银行报告

FINANCIALINSTITUTIONS

CORPORATEANDINVESTMENTBANKINGREPORT2025

Positioning

forGrowthin

UncertainTimes

October2025

BCG

BostonConsultingGrouppartnerswithleadersinbusinessandsocietytotackletheirmostimportantchallengesandcapturetheirgreatestopportunities.BCGwasthepioneerinbusinessstrategywhenitwasfoundedin1963.Today,

weworkcloselywithclientstoembraceatransformationalapproachaimedatbenefitingallstakeholders—empoweringorganizationstogrow,buildsustainablecompetitive

advantage,anddrivepositivesocietalimpact.

Ourdiverse,globalteamsbringdeepindustryandfunctionalexpertiseandarangeofperspectivesthatquestionthe

statusquoandsparkchange.BCGdeliverssolutions

throughleading-edgemanagementconsulting,technologyanddesign,andcorporateanddigitalventures.Weworkinauniquelycollaborativemodelacrossthefirmand

throughoutalllevelsoftheclientorganization,fueledbythegoalofhelpingourclientsthriveandenablingthemtomaketheworldabetterplace.

Contents

04Introduction

06StateoftheIndustry

11CIBin2030—AScenario-BasedOutlook

17ImperativesforCIBsandCapitalMarkets

21Conclusion

22AbouttheAuthors

Introduction

Corporateandinvestmentbanking(CIB)rebounded

stronglyin2024,withtotalrevenuesrising4%to

$827billion—$989billion,includingnon-bankfinancialinstitutions.Gainswerefueledbysponsoractivity,

fee-basedbusinesses,equitiestrading,andmomentuminemergingmarkets.Earlyresultsfor2025suggestthegrowthtrendwillcontinue.Yetbehindtherebound

liesasectorinflux.

Privatecapitalandnon-bankfinancialinstitutions(NBFIs)arenowcentraltooriginationandintermediation.AIis

beginningtotransformfront-to-backworkflowsfromdeal

sourcingtotradeexecution.Digitalassetsandtoken-basedinfrastructurearemovingfrompilotstoinstitutional

adoption.Andgeopoliticalfragmentation,onceviewedasariskscenario,hasbecomepartoftheoperatingbaseline.

Theseshiftsmarkastructuralrealignment,reshapingwhoholdscapital,howvalueiscreated,andwhereriskresides.

BCG’sannualCorporateandInvestmentBankingReport

offersourlatestperspectivesonthisevolution.Our“State

oftheIndustry”chaptertraceshowvalueisshiftingand

examinestheforcesdrivingthatmigration.Wethenprovideastrategictoolkitforleaderstoactontoday’sopportunities.

Our“CIBin2030”chapterlooksaheadtohowvaluepools,businessmodels,andfinancialflowscoulddevelopthrough2030,presentingthreeplausiblepathwaysgroundedin

proprietarymodelingandrecentmarketsignals.Finally,our“Imperatives”chapteroutlineshowmanagementand

boardscanrespondwithaportfolio-basedstrategyto

reinforcetoday’smargins,securenewrevenuestreams,andbuildacalibratedpresenceinemergingdomains.

Thisisamomentofopportunity.Whiletheoperating

environmentismorecomplexthanatanypointinthepastdecade,theindustry’sfundamentalsremainstrong.Firmsthatmovedecisivelytomodernizecapabilities,expandintohigh-valuesegments,andmakebold,targetedinvestmentscanunlocksustainedgrowthwellintothefuture.

4BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP

KeyHighlights

>30%

CIBRevenuesSettoExpand~30%+by2030,Reaching

$1.3Trillion

Inourmostlikelyscenarios,theglobalcorporateandinvestmentbanking

wallet,includingNBFIs,willexpandsignificantly—withrevenuesshiftingtofinancialsponsors(orcorporatesownedbythem),whilefeesfrom

corporatesandinstitutionsdecline.

$3T

StablecoinstoReach$3TrillionMarketCapby2030

Stablecoinsareexpectedtoscaletomorethan$3trillionmarketcapby2030,movingfromfringe

experimentationtocoredigital

marketinfrastructure,alongsideabroaderwaveofdigitalassets.

–4pp

>20%

Non-BankFinancialInstitutions

GainShareofCIBRevenuesPools(from2010:3%;2024:16%)

By2030,NBFIsareprojectedto

accountforupto22%oftotalCIBrevenuepools(upfrom3%in2010and16%in2024)and30%of

tradingrevenues.

+4pp

EMEAandAPACtoGainShareofGlobalCIBRevenueMixfromUS

Escalatingtariffsandcontrolsin

early2025signaladeeperstructuralbreak.Protectionismandregulatorydivergenceareredrawingtrade,

capital,andtechnologypatterns—

andreshapingrevenuepoolsforCIBsinEurope,Asia,andtheUS.

8pp

25%–40%

AItoFreeupto25%一40%CIB

BankerCapacityasPilotsScaletoPrograms

By2030,productivitycouldrise25%to40%forcorporateandinvestmentbankersand20%to35%for

operationsteams.Thesegainsare

acceleratingtheshiftfromisolatedpilotstoCEO-backedtransformationprogramsanchoredinahandfulofhigh-valueenterpriseinitiatives.

+3pp

FICCandEquitiesPositionedtoBenefit

Fixedincome,currencies,and

commoditiesplusequitiestradingarethebiggestwinnersintech-forward

environments,especiallyinscenarioswithNBFIexpansion.

25%

CorporateBanking’s

ShareofProductMixFacesGreatestDisruption

Corporatebankingisthemost

exposedsegmentinoursurgein

techandalternativesscenario,giventheincreasedpressurefromdigitalplatformsandNBFIs.

RoTEGapBetweenLeadersandLaggardsWidensto8pp(from6ppin2024)

Leadersareexpectedtowidentheirreturn-on-tangible-equityadvantageoverlaggardsto8percentagepointsby2030,primarilyviascaleand

AI-ledefficiency.

Focus25%ofStrategic

EffortsonTargetedBetsinHigh-ConvictionArenas

Firmsthatdoubledownon

advantagedareas,scaleselectively,andplacetargetedbetson

emerginggrowthareaswill

outperforminthedecadeahead.

POSITIONINGFORGROWTHINUNCERTAINTIMES5

6BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP

StateoftheIndustry

Globalcorporateandinvestmentbankingmarkedanotheryear

ofgrowthin2024andcontinuedstrongmomentumin2025.

Since2023,CIBrevenues,excludingNBFIs,havegrown4%toreach$827billionin2024.In2024,momentumhasbeenstrongestininvestmentbanking,withexceptionalgrowthinequitycapitalmarkets(up54%YoY)anddebtcapital

markets(up39%YoY),andinequities(up18%YoY).By

contrast,fixedincome,currencies,andcommodities(FICC)wereflat,andcorporatebankingrevenuesdeclined.(See

Exhibit1.)GrowthofCIBcontinuedinto2025,withH1

revenuesup5%YoY,drivenbystrongequities(up21%YoY)andgrowingFICC(up9%YoY);investmentbankingfeesandcorporatebankingwereflat.

Yettheseheadlinegainsconcealamorecomplexreality.

Beneaththesurface,marketstructure,competitive

dynamics,andcapitalflowsareshifting.Theindustryis

contendingwithnewsourcesofcapital,rapidlyscaling

technologies,andanunsettledgeopoliticalbackdrop—allofwhicharereshapinghowvalueiscreated.Thesectionsthatfollowtracehowtheseforcesareplayingoutinpractice.

POSITIONINGFORGROWTHINUNCERTAINTIMES7

EXHIBIT1

CIBRevenuesReboundAfteraDecadeofSlowGrowth

CIBREVENUEGROWTH($BN)

+4%

2025F

+4%

CAGR

2010–2024

860

2020–2024

+1%

827

796

759

94

84

1.8%

2010–2019

720

666664

642

698

637

629

608622

615

607

4.1%

559

160

73

48

166

–0.2%

67

2.9%

45

3.1%

422

275

2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025F

IBD/advisoryEquitiesFICCSecuritiesservicesCorporatebanking

Sources:BCGanalysis;BCGExpand.

Note:TotalrevenuestackexcludesNBFIrevenue;CIBlargecapcorporaterevenuepools(>$1billioninturnover)inopenmarkets,excludescommerciallending;CIB=corporateinvestmentandbanking;FICC=fixedincome,currency,andcommodities;IBD=investmentbankingdivision.

PrivateMarketsandNBFIsExtendTheirReach

Sponsors,suchasprivateequityfirms,andalternative

capitalprovidersarebecomingcentraltocapitalformation,especiallyinmid-capandgrowthsectors.In2010,

revenuesofnon-bankfinancialinstitutions(NBFIs)

representedlessthan5%oftheglobalCIBrevenuepool.

Nowtheyaccountformorethan15%.Leancoststructures,specialistexpertise,andfreedomfromregulatorycapital

requirementsgivethemanaturaledge.TheirreachnowspanstheCIBvaluechain—fromlendingandadvisorytomarketsactivity.(SeeExhibit2.)

Privatecreditfundshavebeenakeyplayerinthisshift,steppingintolendingopportunitieswherebanksface

capitalorregulatoryconstraints.Todaytheyaccountfor11%ofgloballendingpoolsandareexpandingbeyonddirectlendingintoasset-basedfinance,netassetvaluefacilities,andwarehouseplatforms.

Non-bankliquidityprovidersnowaccountforabout20%ofglobaltradingrevenues,particularlyinhighlyelectronified,lower-marginassetclasses.Theirspeed,advanced

technology,andagileriskmanagementhelpeddelivera

standout2024.Continuedvolatility,includingfromshiftingtradeandtariffdynamics,shouldsustainmomentum,withtheirshareexpectedtoreach30%by2030.Boutique

investmentbanksarealsogaininggroundandcould

capture20%ofinvestmentbankingrevenuebytheendofthedecade.

Non-bankliquidityprovidersnowaccountforabout20%ofglobaltradingrevenues,particularlyinhighlyelectronified,lower-marginassetclasses.

EXHIBIT2

Non-BankFinancialInstitutionsCommandaGrowingShareofCIBRevenues

CIBREVENUESHARE:NBFIVS.CIBBANKDIVISIONS($BN)1TOTALCAGR

2010–2024

+5%

p.a.

+2.2%

989

(827excl.NBFI)

+2%

p.a.

+15.5%

759

(664excl.NBFI)

629

(607excl.NBFI)

95

139

94

431

+3.1%

22

NBFIs

Top5CIBs

Next10CIBs2

128

132

347

一0.2%

+2.7%

Restofmarket

162

197

129

501

201020192024

~3%

~13%

NBFIshare

~16%

Sources:BCGanalysis;BCGExpand.

Note:CIBlargecapcorporaterevenuepools(>$1billionturnover)inopenmarkets.

1Revenuesincludingsecuritiesservices.22010“next10CIBs”viewistop6–14,asJefferiesCIBbreakdownnotavailable,includedin2019and2024.

AIAdoptionExpandsBeyond

IsolatedUseCases

AIincorporateandinvestmentbankinghasevolvedfromitsoriginsinpredictiveanalyticsfocusedonriskmodelingandrecommendationsystemstoacoreengineoftransformation.Thesenewcapabilitiesarechanginghowworkgetsdone,

howfirmscompete,andwherevalueiscreated.

Betweennowand2030,thelargestproductivitygainswillcomeincorporaterelationshipmanagement,investmentbanking,andoperations.Productivityamongjunior

bankerscouldriseby25%to40%insomebanks,whileoperationsteamsmaysee20%to40%improvements.

Attentionisalsoshiftingtoseniorbankerproductivity.WithsuccessfulAIusecases—fromclientmeetingpreparationtoprospecting—seniorbankersarebeginningtousethesetoolstounlockefficienciesandcreatenewvalueintheir

day-to-daywork.

Topfirmsarepushingfurther,launchingCEO-andCIO-backedprogramsfocusedonstrategictransformation.

Insteadofdiffuseusecases,leadersareconcentratingonfourtosixenterpriseinitiatives,selectingthosewith

measurableP&Limpactandgivingthemdefinedchartersandowners.

Programmanagementoffices,structured“sharktank”

fundingrounds,andcharter-drivenexecutionmodelsareemergingasnewnormsfortopbanks.Severalarealso

settingexplicitAItransformationtargetsaspartoftheir

“InvestorDay”commitmentstobuildaccountabilityand

sustainmomentum.Inmanygroups,AIannouncements

nowtakecenterstage,reflectingboththegreatermaturityofsolutionsinCIBandtheiroutsizedimpactacrossthe

widerbank.

POSITIONINGFORGROWTHINUNCERTAINTIMES9

10BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP

DigitalAssetsandTokensSeeGrowingInstitutionalInterest

Afteryearsofhypeandhesitation,digitalassetsaregainingtraction,drivenbyregulatoryclarity,technicalprogress,andintegrationintoinstitutionalworkflows.

Stablecoinsareatthecenterofthisshift.Projectedtoreach$3trillioninmarketcapitalizationby2030,theyrepresentthemostmatureformofdigitalmoneytoday.

SeeourrecentBCGxRipplereportformoredetails.

Financialinstitutionsandfinancialtechnologyfirmsare

activelypilotingcoin-basedsolutionsforwholesalepayments,liquiditypooling,cross-bordersettlements,andclientwallets.Additionalapplicationsareemergingacrosscapitalmarketsandtransactionbanking,fromtokenizedbondsto

programmablestablecoins.FirmslikeCircleandJPMorganarealsotestingstablecoinsforforeignexchangesettlement,securitiespayments,andbusiness-to-businesstreasury.

Tokenizationandreal-worldassetsaregainingmomentum,especiallyinrepotransactions,collateral,andstructured

products,wheretheycanenablenewlevelsofprecision,

automation,andtraceability.Leadinginstitutionsare

exploringdigitalissuanceandsettlementmodelsforfixedincome,fundshares,andalternatives,whileexchangesandcustodiansarebuildingoutsupportinginfrastructure.

Althoughvolumesarelow,thepromiseofcostsavings,

enhancedliquidity,andbetterpost-tradeefficiencyisignitingheightenedinterestinfull-stacktokenizedworkflows.

Thisshiftisextendingtotheinfrastructurelayer.For

example,someexchangesareembeddingtokenizationintocorelisting,clearing,andsettlementsystems.

Thosemovespositioninfrastructureplayerstoinfluenceemergingstandards,interoperability,andgovernance.

Earlyexamplesincludetokenizedbondpilotsonregulatedexchangesandcollateraltokenizationplatformsaimedatunlockingcapitalefficiency.

GeopoliticalShiftsAlterthe

GlobalFinancialMap

TheUSgovernment’s2025tariffagendahasacceleratedarealignmentalreadyinmotion.Tradeflowsareshifting,

reservestrategiesarediversifying,andde-dollarizationisgainingground.

AcrossAsia,Africa,andLatinAmerica,renminbiuseisrising,enabledbybilateralswaplines,non-dollar

settlementrails,anddigitalcurrencypilots.TheBRICSbloc—Brazil,Russia,India,China,andSouthAfrica—isdeepeningfinancialcooperation,withnewcross-borderpaymentframeworksdesignedtoreducerelianceonUS-centricsystems.

Capitalmarketsarebeingredrawnaswell.Withissuanceandliquidityflowsbecomingmoreregional,therelative

competitivenessoffinancialcentersisinflux.Europehassteadilylostgroundoverthepastdecade;tocompete,theEUmustreviveitsCapitalMarketsUnionagendaand

pursueadeeper,moreintegratedframework.Asia,bycontrast,isgainingmomentum,drivenbydomestic

investorgrowth,cross-borderlistings,andgovernment-backeddigitalinfrastructure.

Forbanksandcapitalmarketproviders,theseshiftsare

forcingarethinkofnetworkdesign,operatingmodels,andregulatoryposture.Institutionsmustreassessinternationalfootprints,reconfigurebookingandliquidityhubs,and

localizerisk,compliance,andcapitalmanagement.

Thestateoftheindustryrevealsthatlong-standing

assumptionsabouttechnology,regulation,and

globalizationnolongerhold.Tonavigatewhatcomesnext,leadersmusttrackhowtheseforcesconvergeandgame

outtheirimplications.

POSITIONINGFORGROWTHINUNCERTAINTIMES11

CIBin2030—

AScenario-BasedOutlook

Thenear-termoutlookfor

capitalmarketsisstable.Butlookfiveyearsout,andthe

groundgetslesscertain—andmoreconsequential.Becauselinearforecastsdon’twork,

leadersneedtoplanarangeofpossiblefutures.

Thischapterlaysoutthreescenarios,builtfromrigorous

modeling,proprietarybenchmarks,andglobalindustry

data,informedbyclientconversations.(SeeExhibit3.)

They’redesignedtohelpfirmsteststrategies,surfacerisks,andclarifytheconditionsneededtostayahead.

Eachofthesescenarioswillshaperevenuegrowthfor

corporateandinvestmentbanks,includingNBFIs,through2030.Profitabilityandreturnontangibleequity(RoTE)willalsodivergesharply,wideningthegapbetweenindustry

leadersandlaggards.(SeeExhibit4.)

12BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP

162

(16%)

EXHIBIT3

CIBGrowthCouldFollowThreeDistinctPathsThrough2030

2

3

1

Basecasescenario

Secularindustrytrendscontinueatcurrentpace

Surgeintechandalts

Techandprivatemarketsacceleratesharply

Shifttoregionalmarkets

IncreasedregionalfragmentationandshifttowardEMEAandAPAC

①

NBFIscreatearevenuepoolupto>20%ofCIBfeepools

NBFIsreachupto20%of

CIBfeepools;noregulatoryhindrance

Riseofnon-banks(NBFIs)

Followsbasecaseassumptions

GenAI

advancementandtechdisruption

Efficiencyfocusedon

mid/back-office;70%e-trading

GenAIisreshapingE2E

workflows;90%oftradingviae-platforms

Followsbasecaseassumptions

AdoptionofdigitalassetsandDLT

Stablecoinsreplace<5%of

globalcommercialmoney;

minimuminstitutionaluptake

①

Stablecoinsreplace10%–15%ofglobalcommercialmoney;tokenizedassetsreach>5%

ofAUM

Followsbasecase

assumptions(butwith

higherinstitutionalupdateofstablecoinsex-US)

Global

fragmentation

Nofurtherdecouplingofregionalcapitalmarkets

Followsbasecaseassumptions

USinfluencewanesand

EMEAandAPACgainground

Sources:BCGpublicationsandanalysis.

Note:APAC=Asia-Pacific;AUM=assetsundermanagement;DLT=distributedledgertechnology;EMEA=Europe,MiddleEast,andAfrica;NBFI=non-bankfinancialinstitutions.

EXHIBIT4

CIBs’RevenueOutlookVariesbyScenario

CIBrevenueoutlook2030acrossscenariosincl.NBFI1

+5%

+32%

Growth

’24-’30

+30%

$1,310B

290

(22%)

$1,040B

180

(17%)

$989B

NBFI

860

(83%)

1,045

(81%)

827

(84%)

CIB

$1,290B

245

(19%)

1,020(78%)

Surgeintech&alts

Shifttoregionalcapitalmarkets

2024

Basecase

CIBprofitabilitymetrics

CIR(%)2,3

2024

71

58

55

Basecase

68

56

53

Surgein

tech&alts

67

56

50

Shiftto

regionalCM

70

60

55

Laggards

Industry

average

Leaders

RoTE(%)2,3

2024

10

15

16

Basecase

10

16

17

Surgein

tech&alts

10

17

18

Shiftto

regionalCM

9

13

15

Laggards

Industry

average

Leaders

Sources:BCGanalysis;BCGExpanddata.

Note:Negligibledifferencesinsharesduetoroundingandvariationinprojections;leadersrepresentedas80thpercentileoftop15CIBsbyrevenueand

laggardsas20thpercentileoftop15CIBsbyrevenue;CIR=costtoincomeration;NBFI=non-bankfinancialinstitutions;RoTE=returnontangibleequity.1Includesadvisoryandmarkets,andlending.2CIR&RoTEasweightedaveragebasedonrevenueandcapital,respectively.3RangebuiltbyusingminimumandmaximumvaluesforCIR&acrosssegmentaveragesIBD,CB,markets.

POSITIONINGFORGROWTHINUNCERTAINTIMES13

Scenario1(BaseCase):PrepareforSteadyValueMigration

Iftheforcesoutlinedinour“StateoftheIndustry”chapterpersistattheircurrentpace,CIBrevenueswillgrowat4%

annuallythrough2030,reaching$1.3trillion.(SeeExhibit5.)Bankswillretainroughly80%ofthepool,withnon-bank

providersnearingone-fifth.Theproductmixshiftsslightlyfromtoday’slevels.Investmentbankingrisesfrom11%to12%,corporatelendingslipsfrom51%to50%,and

profitabilityimprovesmodestly—withRoTEaveraging16%andcost-to-incomeratiostrendingtoward56%.

AIinvestmentholdsatlessthan1%ofrevenueformost

institutions.Digitalassetsdrawinterest,butstablecoinsstayunder5%ofcommercialmoneyandtokenizedassetsunder2%ofassetsundermanagement(AUM).Even

withoutanaccelerationinanydisruptivetrend,valuemigrationcontinues:

•Non-banksgainground.NBFIsgrowfrom16%tonearly20%ofrevenues,andprivatemarketsreach$24trillioninAUM.Whilenotexplosive,theshareshiftconfirmssteadyencroachmentfromsponsor-backedplatforms,advisory

boutiques,andnon-bankmarketmakers.

•Privatemarketstestthecore.Sponsorsdrive12%of

segmentrevenues(upfrom10%).Theirgrowingroleincapitalformationanddealflowputspressureonbanks,especiallyinleveragedfinance,structuredcredit,and

event-driventransactions.

•Fee-basedrevenuesmattermore.Investment

bankingrisesmodestlyasashareofrevenue,while

corporatelendingandnetinterestincomedeclines,

pushingbankstore-weighttowardhigher-valuesegmentsandclientstoprotectmarginandrelevance.

•Modernizationbecomesmandatory.E-trading

surpasses70%,reflectingongoingmarketdigitization.Evenwithoutaburningplatform,thisuptickadds

pressureforbankstoupgradetrading,data,andworkflowinfrastructure.

EXHIBIT5

BaseCaseProjectionsSuggest30+%RevenueGrowthby2030

ProjectedCIBrevenuesandmixby2030

NBFI

(+3pp)

$989B

162

(16%)

827

(84%)

CIB

(–3pp)

2024

REVENUEMIX

INCLUDINGNBFI1

$1,290B

245

(19%)

1,045

(81%)

2030F

8

11

10

19

51

8

12

10

20

50

2024

REVENUEMIX

EXCLUDINGNBFI(%)

Productmix

Securities

services

IBD

Equities

FICC

CB

2030F

Regionmix

42

30

28

44

29

27

2024

2030F

North

America

EMEA

APAC

54

34

12

Segmentmix

55

34

10

2024

2030F

2024

Base

case

Corporate

2024

Base

case

Institution

Sponsor4

CIBprofitabilitymetrics

CIR(%)2,3

58

55

71

56

53

68

Laggards

IndustryLeadersaverage

RoTE(%)2.3

15

10

16

16

10

17

Laggards

IndustryLeadersaverage

Sources:BCGanalysis;BCGExpanddata.

Note:Totalrevenuestackincludessecuritiesservices;CIBlargecapcorporaterevenuepools(>$1billionturnover)inopenmarkets;allfiguresrounded;leadersrepresentedas80thpercentileoftop15CIBsbyrevenueandlaggardsas20thpercentileoftop15CIBsbyrevenue;APAC=Asia-Pacific;CB=corporatebanking;CIR=costtoincomeratio;EMEA=Europe,MiddleEast,andAfrica;FICC=fixedincome,currencies,andcommodities;IBD=investmentbankingdivision;

NBFI=non-bankingfinancialinstitutions;RoTE=returnontangibleequity.

1Includesadvisoryandmarkets,andlending.2CIR&RoTEasweightedaveragebasedonrevenue,andcapital,respectively.3RangebuiltbyusingminimumandmaximumvaluesforCIR&RoTEacrosssegmentaverages(IBD,CB,markets).4Definedasfinancialsponsorclientsandcorporatesownedbyfinancialsponsors.

14BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP

Scenario2:BraceforaSurgeinTechandAlternatives

Whilethebasecaseistheminimumexpectation,

directionalindicatorssuggestNBFIs,AI-drivenadvances,

anddigitalassetswillexperiencestrongertailwindsover

thenextfiveyears.Thisconvergencewillredistributevaluepools.TotalCIBrevenuesstayatasimilarlevelasinthe

basecase(~$1.3trillion).

Privatecapitalwillfurtherdisplacetraditionallending,

boostinggrowthinadvisory,creditstructuring,andsponsorcoverage.NBFIswillgainshareinmarketsandinvestmentbanking.AIdeploymentswillscale,enablingsignificantly

greaterfront-to-backefficiency,anddigitalassetswillcreatenewcapabilitiesinpayments,custody,andcapitalmarkets.

Theoverallresultisahigher-growthbutmorecompetitiveCIBlandscape,wheretraditionalbanksmustmovebeyondtheircoreandspecialize,partner,andmodernizetodefendreturns.Thesearethemaintakeaways:

•Profitabilitybifurcates.Cost-to-incomeratiosstayflat,butsplitsharply.Leadersthatembracefull-stackAIandredesignplatformsreducecostbyupto17

percentagepointscomparedtolaggards.RoTErisesmodestlyfrom16%to17%.Butthespreadbetweenlaggardsandleaderswidensby8percentagepoints,withbottomperformersweigheddownbycomplexityandunderinvestment.(SeeExhibit6.)

•FICCandequitiesareclearwinners.FICCsees

broadupsideacrossallthreetrends:privatecapital

boostscredittrading,AIimprovesproductivity,and

digitalassetsenablenewinstruments.EquitiesbenefitsfromNBFIexpansionandtokenization;however,AI

impactismoremodest.SecuritiesservicesalsogainfromAI-drivenautomationanddigitalassetcustodygrowth.Sponsor-relatedrevenuesexpandasprivatemarketclientsdominateoriginationandfinancing.

•Corporatebankingshowsthesteepestdecline.

Disintermediationbyprivatecapitalandtokenized

alternativesweakensbanks’lendingrole.AIanddigitaltoolscompressmarginsandrewirecreditprocesses,

compressingmargins.Corporatebanking’sshareoftheproductmixshrinksfrom50%to46%asbankslose

shareinadvisoryandfinancingtomoreagileNBFIs.

Institutionalrevenuesarelargelyneutral,reflecting

offsettingforces:efficiencygainsversusmarginpressure.

•Additionalimplications.Whileflowremainscentral,

marketsandsecuritiesservicesgainstrategicweight,

especiallyastokenizationandAIreshapeclientservice

andoperatingmodels.AswithFICCandequities,the

productmixshiftstowardfee-drivenbusinesses,makingscaleandspecializationmoreimportantthansheer

breadth.Digitalassetsbegintoreshapecustody,liquidity,andcapitalformation,requiringnewinfrastructureand

regulatorycapabilities.GenAIreducesinefficiencyacrossthevaluechain,withthemostimmediateimpactin

underwriting,servicing,andclientmeetingpreparation.

EXHIBIT6

NBFIstoTake22%ofRevenueShareasRoTEGapWidens

2030revenuebasescenarioversussurgeintechandalternatives

CIBprofitabilitymetrics

REVENUEMIX

INCLUDINGNBFI1

290

(22%)

1,020

(78%)

NBFI(+3pp)

CIB

(–3pp)

$1,290B$1,310B

245

(19%)

1,045

(81%)

Surgeintech&alts

Base

case

REVENUEMIX

EXCLUDINGNBFI(%)

Securities

services

(+1pp)

IBD

Equities(+1pp)

FICC(+2pp)

Productmix2

8

12

10

20

50

11

CB

(–4pp)

9

12

22

46

Base

case

Surgeintech&alts

Regionmix

42

30

28

North

America

EMEA

APAC

42

30

28

BaseSurgein

casetech&alts

CIR(%)2,3

Base

case

Surgeintech&alts

53

68

56

Segmentmix

53

33

14

Corporate(–1pp)

Institution(–1pp)

Sponsor4(+2pp)

50

67

56

Laggards

Industryaverage

Leaders

RoTE(%)2,3

Base

case

Surgeintech&alts

17

10

16

18

10

17

54

34

12

Laggards

Industryaverage

Leaders

BaseSurgeincasetech&alts

Sources:BCGanalysis;BCGExpanddata.

Note:Totalrevenuestackincludessecuritiesservices;CIBlargecapcorporaterevenuepools(>$1billionturnover)inopenmarkets;allfiguresrounded;

leadersrepresentedas80thpercentileoftop15CIBsbyrevenueandlaggardsas20thpercentileoftop15CIBsbyrevenue;APAC=Asia-Pacific;

CB=corporatebanking;CIR=costtoincomeratio;EMEA=Europe,MiddleEast,andAfrica;FICC=fixedincome,currencies,andcommodities;

IBD=investmentbankingdivision;NBFI=non-bankingfinancialinstitutions;RoTE=returnontangibleequity.

1Includesadvisoryandmar