迈向2050产业地缘政治与全球经济长期大趋势报告

Towards2050

AndTheGlobalEconomy

MegatrendsInIndustry,Politics

2026Edition

ReportSummary

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BMITowards2050MegatrendsInIndustry,PoliticsAndTheGlobalaFitchsolutionsC。mpanyEconomy|June2026

Contents

MegatrendsTo2050:Introduction 4

Introduction 4

BMI'sMegatrendsSurvey:AIEmergesAsDefiningStructuralTrendTo2050 13

Industry 23

Agribusiness:AdaptationWillSeparateWinnersFromLosers 23

Autos:Automation,ExpandingEVFleets,AIAndRegionalisationToTransformTheSector 31

Banking&FinancialServices:AI-LedTransformationInAFragmentedFinancialSystem 40

Consumer&Retail:CategoryDisruption&TheRedistributionOfValueAcrossEcosystems 53

HealthcareAndMedicalDevices:RedesigningAgeingCarewithAI 64

Construction&Infrastructure:AI,RoboticsAndClimateChallengesToDriveAcceleratingShifts 74

Education&Labour:AI,AgeingAndTheGlobalCompetitionForTalent 85

Logistics&Freight:NewSupplyChainHubsWillEmergeWhereResilienceAndGeopoliticsAlign 96

MetalsAndMining:NavigatingANewEraOfTechnology,GeopoliticsAndGreenTransformation 105

Oil&Gas:IndustryReshapedByMultipolarWorldAndTechnologyAdoption 114

Pharmaceuticals:AIToTransformAllStagesOfValueChain 122

Power&Renewables:StructuralForcesReshapingTheFuturePowerSystem 131

Technology:Convergence,CompetitionAndControl 145

Tourism:Demographics,AIAndClimateToReshapeIndustry 154

EnergyTransition:SecurityAndCompetitivenessReshapeEnergyTransition 164

Politics&Economics 172

GeopoliticalFragmentationToAccelerate,RaisingGlobalRisks 172

AcceleratingTechnologicalChangeAndSpaceCompetitionToBringNewGeopoliticalRisks 183

50-YearTechCycleToTransformGlobalEconomy 190

IndustrialPolicyAcceleratesForADigitalAge 201

PhysicalClimateRisk:ImpactsWillRiseUnevenlyDueToAdaptationGaps 212

Long-TermFiscalSustainabilityInAHigh-DebtWorld:OutlookForMajorDMsAndEMs 221

USDollarDominanceToContinueDespiteReserveCurrencyDiversification 227

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BMITowards2050MegatrendsInIndustry,PoliticsAndTheGlobalaFitchsolutionsC。mpanyEconomy|June2026

MegatrendsTo2050:Introduction

Introduction

KeyView

•Inthe10-yearanniversaryeditionofourMegatrendscontent,weseeaclearwinnerintermsofalong-term,sector-wide

disruptivetrend,withtechnologyandautomation(includingAI)leapingaheadofallothermegatrends,disruptingallindustriesandreshapingtheglobaleconomyoverthecomingdecadesto2050.

•Inthe10yearsofthisresearchproject,theworldhasundergoneadecadeofchangeanddisruption,mouldingtheevolutionofourstructuralmacromegatrendsandleavingeconomicvolatilityasoneoftheleadingconcernsoftheera.

•SustainabilityandESG(includingclimatechangeandthegreentransition)issecondonlytotechnologyinthescopeofchangeitisexpectedtobringforindustries,creatingpermanentshiftsinthestructureofindustriesandseeingwaterandcriticalmineralsreplaceoilintheraceforresources.

•Demographicsandbusinessproductivityremainsleepertrends,withthepotentialtodisruptindustryoperationsandproductlines,whiletheredrawingoftradepatternsislargelyunderwayfollowingadecadeofsupplychaindisruption.

10YearsOfMegatrends

OurMegatrendsresearchisnowinits10thyearandfifthedition.Theresearchprojectisintendedtounderstandhowindustries,economiesandgeopoliticswillevolveoverthecomingdecadesto2050.

Thelastdecade(2016-2026)hasbeenoneofheightenedglobaldisruption,fromthefirstUSTrumppresidencyin2017tothe

globalCovid-19pandemic,andwithtwomajorregionalwars,Russia-UkraineandUS-Iran.Alongsideglobalevents,technologyhasbeenadvancingatarapidpace,coalescingaroundAIandautomation,becomingembeddedintocompaniesacrossallindustriesandcreatingitsowngeopoliticaltensions.Theimpactsofclimatechangearealreadybeingfelt,withtheconversationmovingonfrompurelymitigationtomitigationandadaptation.

Againstthisbackdrop,ouroverarchingstructuralmacromegatrendshavealsoshifted.Thebroadcontinuationofmanyofthesethemesillustratestheprescientnatureofthefirsteditionofourmegatrends.Whilewewerecorrectonmanyofthethemes,thepaceofchangehasfarexceededourexpectations,largelyacceleratedbytheCovid-19pandemic.

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BMITowards2050MegatrendsInIndustry,PoliticsAndTheGlobalaFitchsolutionsC。mpanyEconomy|June2026

MegatrendsHaveShiftedOverTime,ButThemesRemainConsistent

10-YearEvolutionOfMegatrends

Source:BMI

Thegraphicaboveillustratestheevolutionofourstructuralmacromegatrendsbyyearofpublication.Thethemesremained

relativelyconsistentthrough2016,2018andevenintothe2020edition,whichwaspublishedjustastheCovid-19pandemictookhold.Internetproliferationgavewaytotechnology,amoreall-encompassingandappropriateterm.Otherwise,thekeypillars

remainedunchangedthroughto2020.

Thefirsteditionofourresearchprojectpostcovid,in2023,sawamorecomprehensivereviewandre-assessmentofthethemes.

Urbanisationwasnolongerdeemedtobeasdisruptiveorimpactful.However,initsplace,politicalandeconomicvolatilitybecameakeydrivingforceoflong-termdisruption.Globalisationgavewaytotradewhiledemographicshiftsexpandedintoskillsshortagesandlabourshifts,echoingthestructuralshiftthatCovid-19hadonlabouravailability.Finally,2023sawaperiodofhighfocus,

politically,economicallyandbycompaniesonESGconsiderations,climatechangeandenergytransition,resultingintwoindependentthemes.

IntroducingOur2026Megatrends

Forour2026Megatrends,theevolutionofthethemesissubtle.Politicalandeconomicvolatilityandglobaldemographicshifts

remainunchanged.Theideaofglobalisationhasdroppedoffthetradethemeassupplychainshiftsbecomeembeddedandtheeraofunfetteredglobalisationremainsinthepast.AutomationandAIhaveenteredthetechnologythemecomprehensivelyas

industriescoalescearoundAIasthedisruptivetechnologyofthefuture.

Environmental,socialandgovernance(ESG);sustainability;climatechange;andthegreenenergytransitionhavebeengroupedbackintoonetheme.Whilestillahighlydisruptiveforce,thelinksbetweenthethemesmakethemhardtoisolate.

Thebusinessproductivityandtalentthemehasbeenseparatedout.Althoughitcrossesovercloselywithseveralotherthemes,suchasdemographicsandAI,thosethemesarenotexclusivelylinked.

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BMITowards2050MegatrendsInIndustry,PoliticsAndTheGlobalaFitchsolutionsC。mpanyEconomy|June2026

StructuralForcesShapingTheWorldTo2050

2026MacroMegatrends

Source:BMI

OneClearWinner:AI

Inthe10-yearanniversaryeditionofourMegatrendscontent,weseeaclearwinnerintermsofalong-term,sector-widedisruptivetrend,withtechnology&automation(includingAI)leapingaheadofallothermegatrends.Forthefirsttimein10yearsof

megatrendsresearchandsurvey,thereisaclearstand-outintermsofoverarchingmegatrend.TheriseofAIispermeatingall

industriesaswellastheglobaleconomyandpoliticallandscapeinawaythatnoothertrendis,orhasinthisresearchseriessofar.

Everysectorinthe2026Megatrendsresearchprojecthasatleastonethemeassociatedwithtechnology&automation(includingAI),withatotalof27technology-linkedthemesacrosstheresearch.

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BMITowards2050MegatrendsInIndustry,PoliticsAndTheGlobalaFitchsolutionsC。mpanyEconomy|June2026

Whileoursurveyshowsmixedsignalsonsustainability&ESG(includingclimatechangeandrelatedmitigationandadaptation

efforts),ourresearchisclear.Climatechangeandthegreenenergytransitionwilldramaticallydisruptindustries,accountingfor21themesacrossninehigh-risksectors.

Theremainingstructuralmacromegatrendsarelessuniversalintheirapplication;however,theywilldrivesizeableindustrychangeoverthecomingdecadesto2050.

Technology&Automation:UniversalImpact,NotUniversallyPositive

Technology&automation(includingAI)isthemostuniversalthemeseentodateinourmegatrendsresearch,touchingeveryindustryandhavingthepotentialtobothdisruptindustriesbutalsoactasasalvefordisruptioncausedbyotherstructural

megatrends.

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BMITowards2050MegatrendsInIndustry,PoliticsAndTheGlobalaFitchsolutionsC。mpanyEconomy|June2026

Technology&AutomationToReshapeIndustries

IndustryThemesAssociatedWithTechnology&Automation

Source:BMI

Acrossindustries,theimpactofAIandautomationespeciallywillbebroadandlargelypositiveforcompanies.Inconsumer-facingsegments,itwillenabletransparencyandincreasedcustomisation.Forheavyindustriesandprimarysectors,itwillspeedupprojectdelivery,increaseproductivity,andreducesafetyconcernsandwastage.Inthelifesciencessegment,improvedpatientoutcomesandquickerdevelopmenttimesfornewdrugsareexpected.However,thepowersectorshowcasesthedouble-edgedswordof

technology,wherebyimprovedgridmanagementandenergyefficiencywillreduceenergyconsumptionandwaste,butthe

immenseadditionalpowerneedsofthetechnologysectorwillplaceaconsiderablestrainonpowersupply,especiallygreenpower.

Amoreuniversalchallengeiscyberrisk.Acrossallsectors,growingtechnologicalintegrationleavesthemmoreexposedto

cybersecuritybreaches.Thisisespeciallyurgenttoaddressinsectorswithhighlysensitivedata,suchaslifesciences,orcritical

infrastructure.However,recenteventshaveshownthatcyberattacksacrossanyindustryhavethepotentialtoseverelyhitcompanyrevenuesandevencountry-leveleconomicgrowth.

Sustainability&ESG:ClimateChangeAndGreenTransitionReshapingIndustries

Sustainability&ESGfactors(includingclimatechangeandrelatedmitigationandadaptationefforts)arepresentedasclearandirreversibledisruptiveforcesacrossninehigh-risksectors.Theprimarysectors(agriculture,oil&gasandmining)areparticularly

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BMITowards2050MegatrendsInIndustry,PoliticsAndTheGlobalaFitchsolutionsC。mpanyEconomy|June2026

exposedtoclimatechangeandthegreentransition.Agribusinessisatthefrontlinesofclimatechange,increasingcompetitionforlandandresources,andreducingarablelocations.Thefutureoftheoil&gasindustryisintrinsicallylinkedanddirectionallyopposedtothegreenenergytransition.Conversely,theminingsectorisoneofthelargestbeneficiariesofthegreeneconomythrough

growingdemandforcriticalminerals.

Acrossallsectors,weseeadrivetoreduceemissionsfrombothacompanyandaconsumerperspective,changingthenatureofrawandrefinedmaterialsdemand,howcompaniescalculateriskforfinancingandinsurancepurposes,andhowconsumer

preferencesareevolving.

ClimateChangeAndEnergyTransitionDrivingIrreversibleChange

IndustryThemesAssociatedWithSustainability&ESG

Source:BMI

GeopoliticalRisk&EconomicVolatility:TheNewNormal

GeopoliticalriskandeconomicvolatilityrankedhighinBMI'sMegatrendsSurvey;however,itislessprominentinanalyst-identifiedrisks.Highlevelsofgeopoliticalriskandeconomicvolatilityhavedefinedthelastdecade,withtwoTrumppresidencies,theCovidpandemic,theRussia-Ukrainewar,andtheUS-Iranwar.Economicvolatilityhasbecomesomewhatingrainedinindustryrisk

managementand,therefore,notisolatedasastructurallydisruptiveshift.

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BMITowards2050MegatrendsInIndustry,PoliticsAndTheGlobalaFitchsolutionsC。mpanyEconomy|June2026

EconomicVolatilityIsHereToStay

IndustryThemesAssociatedWithGeopoliticalRisk&EconomicVolatility

Source:BMI

Thisisnottosaythatweexpectthetrendtorecede.Theexpecteddisruptiontotheglobaleconomyfromotherstructuralmacro

megatrendswillonlyexacerbatethistheme.Climatechangeandtherelatedgreenenergytransition,thereconfigurationofthe

globaltradelandscapealignedwithpoliticalshifts,andtheriseofAIandautomationanditsimpactontheworkforceallmeanthateconomieswilllikelybefacinggreaterdisruption,highercostsandmorestrainedfiscalpositions.Companieswillthusbeexposedtoeconomicshocksmoreoften.

Theindustrywiththegreatestexposuretogeopoliticalriskistechnology,withfourthemeslinkedtothemacromegatrend.

Technologydominanceisattheheartofrisinggeopoliticalrisk.

Trade&SupplyChainShifts:MovementAlreadyUnderWay

Followingalmostadecadeofsupplychaindisruption,ourindustry-specificmegatrendsarerelativelylightonthemesrelatedtothistrendcomparedwithpreviouseditions.Whileoursurveyshowstraderiskasshootingupthedisruptiveconcerns(fromfiftheditionin2023tosecondin2025),thenumberofindustrytrendslinkedtoshiftingsupplychainshasreduced.Thisisnotreflectiveofa

mismatchinexpectationsofthetrend,butratherthefactthatsupplychaindisruptionanditsconsequencesarenotnew,andthewheelsarealreadyinmotionfortheadjustmentstodealwithit.

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BMITowards2050MegatrendsInIndustry,PoliticsAndTheGlobalaFitchsolutionsC。mpanyEconomy|June2026

SupplyChainShiftingTowardsMulti-Shoring

IndustryThemesAssociatesWithTrade&SupplyChainShifts

Source:BMI

Ourcoreviewisthatsupplychainshaveenteredanewerathatisnolongerdefinedpurelybycost,butratherbyresilience.Thiseraofmulti-shoringhasbeendrivenbythegrowingcomplexityandvulnerabilityoftrade,resultingfromindustrialpolicy,geopolitical

riskandregulatorychanges.Overthelongterm,multi-shoringwillseecompaniesmaintainingmultipleregionalproductionbasesatonce,acceptinghighercostsinexchangeforgreaterresilience.By2050,supplychainsarelikelytolooklesslikesingle-routeglobalsystemsandmorelikeregionalwebsdesignedtoabsorbdisruption.

GlobalDemographics&BusinessProductivity

Whileidentifiedastwodistinctmegatrends,globaldemographicsandbusinessproductivityareintrinsicallylinkedasdecliningworking-agepopulationsthreatenbusinessoperations.

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BMITowards2050MegatrendsInIndustry,PoliticsAndTheGlobalaFitchsolutionsC。mpanyEconomy|June2026

DemographicShiftsUnderappreciated

IndustryThemesAssociatedWithDemographics&TalentShortage

Source:BMI

Ageingdemographicsisauniquestructuralmacromegatrendinthatitishighlypredictablegivenbirthratesglobally.However,itisconsistentlyrankedastheleastdisruptivemegatrendinoursurveys,andacrossindustriesit(alongsidebusinessproductivity)

accountsforthefewestthemes.

Thatsaid,wheretheimpactisbeinghighlighted,ithasthepotentialtotransformindustries.Companieswillneedtoadapttocatertoincreasinglyolderpopulationswithnewproductsandservices.Thenatureofwork,trainingandeducationwillallbere-envisagedwithworkforcescomplementedwithAIandautomationtooffsetshrinkinglabourpools.Finally,thefinancialservicesindustrywillseeastructuralshiftindemand,towardswealthpreservation,incomegenerationandtrustedfinancialadvice,withareductionin

appetiteforriskandcreditgrowth.

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BMI'sMegatrendsSurvey:AIEmergesAsDefiningStructuralTrendTo2050

KeyView

•BMI’sMegatrendsSurveyprovidesamarketviewonourexpectationsforthestructuraltrendsthatwillshapeglobaleconomiesoverthecomingdecadesto2050.Inourlatestsurvey,weseesubtlechangessincethe2023edition,buttheoverallscaleofdisruptionremainsclear,withover90%ofrespondentsstatingthatthestructuralmacromegatrendslaidoutinthesurvey

wouldbedisruptivetotheirbusinessesoverthecomingdecadesto2050.

•Economicvolatilityhasbecomeapersistentriskfactor,althoughthereremainsanexpectationthatitwillrecedeoverthecomingdecadesto2050.

•AI’sprominenceinoursurveyisclearandwillbecomeevengreateroverthedecadesto2050.Citedasbothadisruptiveforceandasolutionformanyoftheothermacromegatrends,AIandautomationareclearlyfrontofmindforcompanies’long-termstrategicplans.

•Demographicshiftsremaintheperennialunderappreciatedmacromegatrend.Companiesareclearlyanticipatingthetheme’simpact,butthereisaviewthatAIandautomationwilleasetheblow.

•Tradeandsupplychainshiftshavebecomeamoreprominentriskfactorinoursurvey,drivenbyalmostadecadeofuncertaintyinthetradeenvironmentpeakingin2025.

•Therearemixedsignalsinoursurveyregardingclimatechangeandsustainability,environmental,socialandgovernance.Whileitsprominenceatanoverarchinglevelhasclearlydiminishedsincetheprevioussurveyin2023,confidenceinmeetingnetzerotargetsremainshighatthethematiclevel,andinvestmentinESGisstable.

AboutOurSurvey

AspartofourMegatrendsthoughtleadershipseries,werunabusiness-tobusinesssurveytotakethepulseoftheindustryandhearwhatcompaniesareexpecting,andhowtheyarepreparingfortheevolutionofindustriesandtheglobaleconomyoverthecomingdecadesto2050.Viewsfrommarketparticipantscomplementouranalysisbyprovidingasense-checkonourtrends,adding

furtherinsightintoourthemesfrommarketparticipantsandhelpingustoidentifypotentialgapsinthemarket’sexpectationsversusfutureanticipatedtrends.

Forthe2026editionofourMegatrendsSurvey,whichweraninDecember2025,wesurveyed741seniorexecutivesacross15industriesandfivegeographies.

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AViewFromTheMarket

BMI'sMegatrendsSurvey

Source:BMI

IntroducingThe2026Megatrends

Wehaverefinedourstructuralmacromegatrendssince2023,introducingsubtlechangestothedescriptionsandgreaterdistinctionbetweenthethemes.

Oursurveyaskedrespondentstorankthedisruptivepotentialofthesethemesatanoverarchinglevel,aswellastakingadeepdiveintoquestionsonatheme-by-themebasis.

ShiftsInMegatrendsExpectations

2023

2026

Globaleconomicvolatility

1*

1

Trade&supplychainshifts

5

2

Geopoliticalrisk

1*

3

Technology&automation(AI)

3

4

Businessproductivity&talentshortage

2

5

Sustainability&Environmental,Social&Governance(ESG)

4

6

Globaldemographictrends(eg,ageingpopulations)

6

7

*Globaleconomicvolatilityandgeopoliticalriskwereacombinedoptionin2023.Question:Thinkingofthesemegatrends,howdisruptivewilltheybetoyourbusiness?Rankingbasedonhighestdisruption.Source:BMIMegatrendsSurvey

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BMITowards2050MegatrendsInIndustry,PoliticsAndTheGlobalaFitchsolutionsC。mpanyEconomy|June2026

Inourmostrecentsurvey,weisolatedeconomicvolatilityfromgeopoliticalrisk.Thisenabledustoseethatbetweenthosetwo

trends,economicvolatilityisthegreaterconcern.In2026,globaleconomicvolatilityisthetopoverallconcernforcompanieswhenthinkingaboutdisruptiontotheirbusiness,mirroringtheresponsesfrom2023.TheconcentrationofeconomicshocksseensincetheCovid-19pandemichasturnedeconomicvolatilityintoaconstantriskfactorthatcompaniesseektonavigate.Whilelikely

influencedbysomeelementofrecencybias,itisclearthateconomicvolatilitywillcontinueoverthecomingdecades.The

anticipateddisruptiontotheglobaleconomyfromclimatechangeandtherelatedgreenenergytransition,thereconfigurationof

theglobaltradelandscapeinlinewithpo