摩根士丹利-重回审视：301条款关税的跨资产视角-Back on the Rack A Cross-Asset Perspective on Section 301 Tariffs-20260807

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MorganStanleyResearch|NorthAmerica

August7,202605:46PMGMT

BackontheRack

ACross-AssetPerspectiveonSection301Tariffs

SPEAKERS

JennaGiannelliCreditAnalyst

ArunimaSinhaGlobalEconomist

ArianaSalvatoreEquityStrategist,USPublicPolicy

MartinTobias,CFA,CMTUSRatesStrategist

SimeonGutman,CFAEquityAnalyst,Hardlines/BroadlinesAlexStratonEquityAnalyst,SoftlinesRetail&Brands

August2026

MorganStanley&Co.LLC.

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalyst

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSectionattheendoftheunderlyingreport.

MorganStanleyAugust20261

MorganStanleyAugust20262

Today'sSpeakers

FixedIncome,Economics,PublicPolicyandEquityResearch

ArunimaSinha

GlobalEconomist

ArianaSalvatore

EquityStrategist,USPublicPolicy

Durabilityofthe10%to12.5%baselineandimplementationrisk.

JennaGiannelli

CreditAnalyst|Retail&ConsumerCorporateCredit

Realizedeffectivetariffratesandtheconsumerinflationimpulse.

Framesthekeytakeawaysandthecredit-specificread-through.

SimeonGutman,CFA

EquityAnalyst|Hardlines,Broadlines&FoodRetail

Sportinggoodsandfurnitureastheclearestequitywinners.

AlexStraton

EquityAnalyst|SoftlinesRetail&Brands

Embedded2Htariffassumptionsand2HEPSupside.

MartinTobias,CFA,CMT

USRatesStrategist

IEEPArefundmath:$99bnpaid,howmuchislefttorun.

MorganStanleyAugust20263

ExecutiveSummary:AnUnderappreciatedRelief

Section301preservesmostof1H26’stariffrelief,limitsrenewedinflationriskandsupports2H26to2027margin,earningsandcashflow

1

OurRetail/Consumerbasketlandsata12%all-ineffectiverateunderSection301,only1.0pptaboveSection122and8pptbelowthecalendar-weightedIEEPAregime.Notalow-tariffworld,butamateriallymorestableandlessinflationaryrun-ratethanwebelievemanycompaniesandinvestorsassumed.

Peaktariffshockisbehindtheconsumercomplex

Consumergoodsbasketat12%underSection301vs.19%underaverageIEEPA;softlinesat24%vs.35%.RealizedWorldratesacrossnineconsumercategoriesfellfrom17%in4Q25to10%inApriltoMay2026.

2The2027marginstoryistiming-driven

Onanillustrative90-dayinventory-to-COGSlag,costsfadein2Q26,fliptothestrongestYoYtailwindin3Q26,andstaysupportivethrough1H27beforecompsnormalizein2H27.

3Thebiggestwinnerspaidthemost,andlikelykeeptheprice

Softlinescarryinghighembedded2Htariffassumptions,plusfurnitureandsportinggoodswithpricingpoweranddirect-importerrefundeligibility.

4Thecreditbenefitisrecurring;IEEPArefundsarenot

Lowerlandedcostsliftgrossmargin,EBITDAandFCF.Refundsaccelerate2Q26/3Q26cashflowbutshouldsitoutsidetherun-rate.

5Policyisdurableatthebaseline,butnotstaticbeneathit

Continuityaround10%to12.5%.Theswingfactorsarelitigationoutcomes,affordabilityintothemidtermsandtheUSMCAnegotiations.

Source:USTR,USITC,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.See“BackontheRack:Cross-AssetPerspectiveonSection301Tariffs,”August3,2026.

MorganStanleyAugust20264

Agenda

Coverageembedded2Htariffassumptionsabovethenewrates;LULUandVSXYscreenbestSource:MorganStanleyResearch.

Preparedcommentsfromthereportauthors,followedbyliveQ&A

1

Section301bythenumbers

WhattheJuly24frameworkactuallycoststheconsumercomplex,andwhenithitstheP&L

JennaGiannelli

2

Keepingthelidontariffinflation

Realizedeffectiverateshavealreadysteppeddown7ppt;theincrementalimpulseissmall

ArunimaSinha

3

Durableheadline,unevenimplementation

A10%to12.5%baselinethatholds,withlitigation,USMCAandmidtermsunderneath

ArianaSalvatore

4

SizingtheIEEPArefundtailwind

$99bnrefundedthroughJuly29;roughlyone-quartertoone-thirdstilloutstanding

MartinTobias,CFA,CMT

5

Credit:wherethemarginbenefitlands

Retail/Apparelcapturesthelargertailwind;ConsumerProductssmallerbutstillpositive

JennaGiannelli

6

EquityHardlines:whokeepstheprice

Sportinggoodsandfurnitureretailscreenbestonpricingpowerandrefundeligibility

SimeonGutman,CFA

7

EquitySoftlines:2HEPSupside

AlexStraton

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MorganStanleyAugust20265

SECTION1

Section301bytheNumbers

WhattheJuly24frameworkactuallycoststheconsumercomplex,andwhenthereliefreachestheP&L

JennaGiannelli,CreditAnalyst

MorganStanleyAugust20266

Section301CutsPeakIEEPARatesAcrossEveryMajorSourcingMarket

Chinaseesthelargestabsoluterelief(38%→21%);theEUbenefitsmostversusSection122(14%→8%),whileChinaandVietnamstepmodestlyhigher

All-ineffectiveconsumergoodstariffratebysourcingmarketandtariffregime(%)

AverageIEEPASection122NewSection30140%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Ratesstayabovepre-IEEPAlevelsalmosteverywhere,sogeographicmixremainsakeydeterminantofcompany-levelexposure.KeysoftlineshubsCambodiaandBangladeshholdat23%,Vietnamat13%.

Source:UnitedStatesTradeRepresentative(USTR),MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Fixed2024Retail/Consumerimportmixacrosskeyconsumer-goodssourcingmarkets(~70%ofcategoryimports);modelsstatutorytariffs,MFNs,theeffectivelegacyChinaSection301layerandregime-specificexclusions.

MorganStanleyAugust20267

BetterThana“Midpoint”Outcome:12%Blended,24%Softlines

InvestorswerelargelypositionedforaratenearthemiddleofSection122andIEEPA(15%);Section301landsclosetoSection122instead

Categoryaverageall-ineffectiveratesacrosstariffregimes

CATEGORY

2024IMPORTVALUE($BN)

PRE-IEEPA

AVERAGEIEEPA

SECTION122

NEWSECTION301

NEWVS.AVGIEEPA

Apparel

$93.0

15%

35%

25%

24%

-11ppt

Footwear

$40.9

14%

36%

24%

24%

-11ppt

Accessories&travelgoods

$38.1

16%

35%

25%

22%

-13ppt

Home/furniture/housewares

$118.9

9%

26%

16%

16%

-10ppt

Consumerelectronics

$343.6

2%

11%

5%

6%

-5ppt

Beauty/personalcare/household

$47.0

4%

16%

11%

9%

-7ppt

Toys/sporting/leisure

$48.8

2%

29%

11%

13%

-16ppt

Food/beverage/consumables

$114.0

3%

11%

6%

5%

-6ppt

Softlinescomposite

$171.9

15%

35%

25%

24%

-11ppt

Allconsumercategories

$844.3

6%

19%

11%

12%

-8ppt

Softlinesremainsthestructuralpressurepoint.Apparel,footwearandaccessoriescarryhighMFNdutiesbeforeanySection301layer,andChinaretainsthelegacy2018to2019Section301tariffsontop.

Source:USTR,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:AsimpleSection122/IEEPAmidpointwouldimply15%forallconsumercategoriesand30%forsoftlines.

MorganStanleyAugust20268

TheCallIsAboutCadence,NottheJuly24Headline

Tariffcostspeakedinthe3Q25P&L;3Q26shouldshowthestrongestYoYtailwind,withsupportpersistingthrough1H27

WhentariffcostsreachtheP&L:illustrative90-dayinventory-to-COGSlag

Reportingcalendarquarter

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

3Q26E

4Q26E

1Q27E

2Q27E

3Q27E

4Q27E

1Q28E

Importedgoodsquarter

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

3Q26

4Q26

1Q27

2Q27

3Q27

4Q27

Regimeinimportquarter

Pre-

IEEPA

IEEPA

starts

Peak

IEEPA

IEEPA

normal

Late

IEEPA

IEEPA/

122

Section

122

122/301

Section

301

Section

301

Section

301

Section

301

Section

301

Marginread-through

Flat

ModestHW

PeakHW

ElevatedHW

ElevatedHW

ModestHW

PeakTW

StrongTW

StrongTW

Tailwind

SlightHW

Flat

Flat

2Q26

ResidualIEEPApressurestillwashingthrough(afading

headwind,notyetabenefit).

3Q26E

2H27E

Closertoflatasthe

comparisonfullyannualizesthenewSection301run-rate.

4Q26Eto1H27E

Supportpersists;equity

upsidewhereembedded

assumptionswerehigherandpricingsticks.

ThestrongestYoYtariff-costtailwindasSection122

inventoryreplacespeakIEEPAgoods.

Company-specificinventoryturnscanshiftthiscadencebyaquarterineitherdirection;weview60to120daysasareasonablesensitivityrange.

Source:MorganStanleyResearchestimates.HW=headwind,TW=tailwind.Scheduleispurelyillustrative.Faster-turnbusinessesmayrecognizethebenefitearlier,whileseasonalorslower-turnmodelsmaylag.

SoftlinesIsStilltheStructuralPressurePoint

HighMFNdutiesplusChina’slegacy2018to2019Section301layerkeepapparel,footwearandaccessorieselevated;electronicsandfoodaretherelativewinners

NewSection301:all-ineffectiveratebyselectsourcingmarketandcategory(%)

CATEGORY

CHINA

VIETNAM

INDONESIA

BANGLADESH

INDIA

TAIWAN

EU

MEXICO

Apparel

34.9%

27.9%

28.0%

25.0%

24.0%

13.0%

10.5%

4.0%

Footwear

32.8%

26.4%

21.3%

15.8%

20.0%

14.0%

10.0%

2.5%

Accessories&travelgoods

48.9%

21.4%

21.8%

19.6%

18.0%

9.9%

9.9%

4.0%

Home/furniture/housewares

38.5%

13.1%

9.0%

11.0%

12.0%

7.9%

9.4%

2.5%

Beauty/personalcare

28.3%

15.8%

11.7%

13.5%

12.5%

8.5%

9.1%

1.5%

Toys/sporting/leisure

15.0%

13.0%

10.7%

11.0%

11.0%

9.6%

9.6%

2.0%

Food/beverage/consumables

15.0%

9.0%

8.0%

9.5%

7.5%

5.5%

6.1%

1.5%

Consumerelectronics

10.5%

6.1%

5.2%

6.0%

4.3%

3.6%

3.7%

1.2%

GoodsfromChinafacethehighesttariffrates,withaccessories/travelgoodsat48.9%andhome/housewaresat38.5%.Consumerelectronicsaverages~6%andfood~5%,whichiswhybroadmarketaveragesoverstatepressureonelectronics-heavyimportersandunderstateitfor

softlines

Source:US.TR,USITC,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:IncludescountryMFN+effectivelegacyChinaSection301+regime-specificexemptions.Cambodia,Thailand,CanadaandMalaysiashowninthefullreportexhibit.

MorganStanleyAugust20269

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MorganStanleyAugust202610

SECTIONS2TO4

Macro,PolicyandtheRefundTailwind

Whytheincrementalinflationimpulseissmall,whatcouldstillmoveunderneathadurableheadline,andhowmuchrefundcashislefttocome

ArunimaSinha,GlobalEconomist·ArianaSalvatore,EquityStrategist·MartinTobias,CFA,CMT,USRatesStrategist

MorganStanleyAugust202611

KeepingtheLidOn:Section301LimitsaRenewedInflationImpulse

4to11ppt

Lowerthan4Q25ineightofthenineconsumercategories

Realizedeffectiverateshavealreadysteppeddown7pptsince4Q25;thechangefromhere(themarginthatmattersforpricingdecisions)issmall

17%→10%

Worldeffectiverateacrossnineconsumercategories,4Q25toApriltoMay2026

+1ppt

MediancategoryincreaseunderSection301vs.ApriltoMayrealizedrates

Effectivetariffratesbyconsumergoodscategory,Worldbasis(%)

30%25%20%15%10% 5%

0%

Apparel/accessories

4Q25April-May2026EstimatedunderSection301

PersonalcareFood,

beverages

AutopartsToys,games,sports

FootwearHome

appliances

Furniture/home

imp.

Consumerelectronics

TOTAL

Source:UnitedStatesInternationalTradeCommission(USITC),MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Historicalratesarecustoms-valueweighted,sochangesreflectproductandsourcingmixaswellastariffpolicy.Section301estimatesuseJanuarytoApril2026tradevolumes.Notdirectlycomparabletothemodelledimport-mixratesonearlierslides.

MorganStanleyAugust202612

Section301LeavesOurInflationOutlookUnchanged

ThenewdutiestookeffectasSection122expired(ahandoff,notatariffcliff),andtheresulting~2ppstep-upintheeffectiverateisalreadyinsideourforecast

~70bp

~62bp

alreadyrealised,perourtariffpass-throughtracker

SinceFeb

realisedpass-throughhasbeenbroadlystable

cumulativeadditiontoPCEinflationfromtariffs,ourunchangedforecast

Whatthisdoes,anddoesnot,change

Nochangetotheinflationcall.

Consistentwithbothourexpectationsandourcurrentforecast.

Theimpulsehadalreadypeaked.

BroadlystablesinceFebruary.Theimpulsefromtariffsalreadyinplacehadnearlypeaked.

Section301isthefinalpush,notanewshock.

Themorestabledutiesshouldclosetheremaininggapto70bpratherthanaddupsiderisk.

Statutoryratestillconvergesto~10%.

Section232remainsthetargetedsectoraloverlayforstrategicandcapital-intensivegoods.

Cumulativetariffpass-throughtoPCEinflation

(pp)

RealisedeffectoftariffsonheadlinePCE(pp)Estimatedtotalpass-through(pp)

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

Remaininguncertaintyisaboutimplementation(pendingSection232actionsandcountry-specificescalation),notthepersistenceofthebroadtarifffloor.

Source:BEA,MorganStanleyResearch.See“U.S.DataPulse:Tariffsandinflation:Section301forced-labortariffsleaveourinflationoutlookunchanged,”July24,2026.Note:Realisedratescandifferfromstatutoryestimatesbecauseofproductexclusions,MFNcaps,bilateralarrangements,refundsandchangesinimportcomposition.

MorganStanleyAugust202613

ADurableHeadline,WithUnevenImplementationUnderneath

TheadministrationprioritisedcontinuityinreplacingSection122;weexpectthe10%to12.5%baselinetohold

Basecase:continuationofcurrentpolicy,evenifthetariffsarelitigatedthroughseveralcourts,consistentwiththeprecedentsetbytheIEEPAchallenges.

WHATCOULDCREATEAN‘AIRPOCKET’

Litigationriskremains:someimportershavealreadychallengedthenewregimeattheCourtofInternationalTrade.

Affordabilityintothemidtermshasdrivenrecentexceptions,carve-outsanddelays.Weexpectmoreofthesame.

Limitedlegalauthoritytoholdtariffsongoodsthatareneithernational-securityrelevantnortiedtoaliveSection301

investigation.

WHATHOLDSTHEHEADLINEUP

Baselineof10%to12.5%islargelyconsistentwithpriorlevels,andweexpectittostayaroundthatlevel.

Section301restsonmuchfirmerlegalfootingthanIEEPA,withclearprecedent,Chinabeingtheobviousexample.

Limitednear-termcatalyststochangetheaggregatelevel.

Swingfactorswearewatching

Litigation

CITchallengestotheforced-laborframework

Midterms

AffordabilitypressureintoNovember

USMCA

Negotiationsseteffectiveratesforourlargestpartners

Source:MorganStanleyResearch.

MorganStanleyAugust202614

$99bnRefunded:MostoftheIEEPACashIsAlreadyBack

Weestimateroughlyone-quartertoone-thirdofeligiblerefundsisstilloutstanding,providinganincremental3Q26cashflowtailwind

ProgressonIEEPAdutyrefunds,asofJuly29,2026

$99bnrefunded·67%to75%ofthetotalpossibleamount~25%to33%stilloutstanding

67%(if100%ofeligibleclaimsarefiled)

75%(if80%filed)

Refundsshouldcompletethisquarter

Giventhepaceofpaymentstodate,weexpecttheIEEPArefundcycletobelargelyfinishedwithin3Q26.

Netcustomsreceiptsturnednegative

RefundsexceededtotaltariffreceiptsinJuneandJuly,flippingmonthlynetcustomsreceiptsbelowzero.

Fundedwithshort-datedT-bills

Wecontinuetoexpecttheincrementalfinancingneedcreatedbytheserefundstobemetinthebillsector.

Incremental,notrecurring

Forissuersthatareimportersofrecordthisisa3Q26(andpossiblyearly4Q26)liquidityevent,notpartoftherun-rate.

Source:MorganStanleyResearch,USTreasury,Bloomberg.Note:EstimatesarebasedoncumulativeadditionalwithdrawalsfromUSCustomsandBorderProtectionin2026vs.2025,fromMay12ofeachyear.The67%to75%rangedependsonwhether80%or100%ofeligiblerefundclaimsaresubmittedbyimporters.

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MorganStanleyAugust202615

SECTIONS5TO7

SectorImplications:WhoPaid,WhoKeepsIt

Wherethemarginbenefitlandsincredit,andwhichequitiesscreenbestonexposure,pricingpowerandrefundeligibility

JennaGiannelli,CreditAnalyst·SimeonGutman,CFA,EquityAnalyst·AlexStraton,EquityAnalyst

MorganStanleyAugust202616

Credit:Retail/ApparelCapturestheLargerTailwind

~65%ofRetail/ApparelCOGSissourcedfromAsia,including~22%fromChina.Thesectorabsorbedanoutsizedcostburdenandshouldnowseethelargestreversal

~22%

ofCOGSsourcedfromChina

~65%

ofRetail/ApparelCOGSsourcedfromAsia

2H26to1H27

whenthemarginandEBITDAbenefitismostvisible

RelativeexposurerankingsacrossourRetail/Apparelcoverage(mostexposedattop)

CHINASOURCING

ASO·MIK·QVCN·W·DDS·KSS·M·AS·RH·HD·LOW·WOOF·

CROX·WWW·TPR·BBWI·GAP·SBH·CRI·VFC·VSXY·UA·LEVI

TOTALASIASOURCING

CROX·TPR·ASO·CRI·VSXY·W·KSS·WWW·AS·UA·GAP·DDS·VFC·RH·LEVI·M·MIK·QVCN·

HD·LOW·WOOF·SBH·BBWI

GROSSTARIFFHEADWIND(%OFSALES)

MIK·GAP·UA·RH·VSXY·KSS·

CRI·ASO·QVCN·M·WWW·DDS·CROX·AS·VFC·HD·LOW·LEVI·SBH·TPR·WOOF·BBWI·W

Geographymatters,butitisnottheonlydriver

Tariffsensitivityalsodependsonpositioninthesupplychain(directimportervs.retailerofthird-partybrands),

domesticvs.global

salesmix,andgross-marginprofile.Themostsensitiveissuerscombineelevateddirectsourcingwithmarginstructuresthatamplifychangesinlandedcost:MIK,GAP,

VSXY,KSS,RH,UAandCRI.Higher-margin,moreinternationallydiversifiedormoredomesticallysourcednames(BBWI,WOOF,W,SPLS,SBH,LEVI)facelowerheadwinds,thoughstillmorethanmostnon-retailconsumersectors.

Pricingacrossdiscretionarycategorieshasheldupbetterthanweandmanyinvestorsexpected.Ashigher-costinventoryrollsthrough,issuersthatretainthatpricingshouldrealiseafavourableprice-costspread,firstingrossmarginandEBITDA,theninFCFanddeleveragingcapacity.

Source:Companyfilings,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Rankingsshownindescendingorderofestimatedexposure.

MorganStanleyAugust202617

Credit:ConsumerProducts,SmallerUpsidebutStillPositive

A“noworse”outcomeversusSection122,withNWL,COTY,ENRandEPCthemoremeaningfulbeneficiariesacrossourcoverage

~7%

ofCOGSsourcedfromChina

~2.25%

averagegrosstariffheadwindasashareofsales

~13.5%

ofCOGSsourcedfromAsia

RelativeexposurerankingsacrossourConsumerProductscoverage(mostexposedatleft)

CHINASOURCING

EPC·SPB·SGI·COTY·NWL·SMG·ENR·PBH·WHR·CENT

TOTALASIASOURCING

NWL·SPB·EPC·WHR·SGI·COTY·CENT·SMG·ENR·PBH

GROSSTARIFFHEADWIND(%OFSALES)

ENR·EPC·WHR·NWL·SMG·SGI·SPB·COTY·PBH·CENT

WHYITSTILLMATTERS

Lowergrossmarginsandrisingconsumerelasticityhavemade

tariffshardertooffsethere,soevenmodestcostsweighedon

profitability.AbetterCOGSbackdropandgreatercoststabilityintolate2027shouldsupportEBITDA,FCFandleverage.

WHYTHEUPSIDEISSMALLER

MateriallylowerChinaandAsiasourcingexposure,lesspricingpowerthandiscretionarycategories,andacategorymixthat

receiveslesstariffrelief,cappingtheabsolutedollarbenefit.

Source:Companyfilings,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Rankingsshownindescendingorderofestimatedexposure;seeExhibits16to18oftheunderlyingreportformagnitudes.

MorganStanleyAugust202618

Hardlines:SportingGoodsandFurnitureLookBestSituated

FIVE,BBY,RHandWSMleadonAsiasourcing;ourcoverageaverages~17%estimatedexposuretoChina

EstimatedCOGSsourcingexposurebyretailer(%)

TotalAsiasourcingexposureChinasourcingexposure

FIVEBBYRHWSMDKSASOAZOTGTARHSDLTRFNDORLYHDTSCOLOWWMTAAPCOSTOLLI

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

BiggestbeneficiariesoftheIEEPAtoSection301transition

HomeFurnishingsHighpricingpower

RH,WSM,ARHS,BOBS

Affluenthouseholdspendingremainsresilient;substantialtariffimpactof~4%to6%;relativelylimitedpricesensitivityonhigher-ticketpurchases.

SportingGoodsHighpricingpower

GOLF,CALY,DKS

Seculargrowth,innovationandtheWorldCup;higher-income

householdsenjoyingthewealtheffect;gross-marginupsideastariffcostssubside.

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Note:EstimatedCOGSexposuretoAsiaandtoChinaacrossHardlines/Broadlines/FoodRetailcoverage.

MorganStanleyAugust202619

Refunds:WhoCollects,andWhatTheyDoWithIt

Atailwindto2Q26eand3Q26eP&Ls,butwhereitlandsinearningsdependsentirelyonwhetherthecashisreinvested,offsetorretained

LargestexpectedrefundsasashareofUSrevenue(importersofrecord)

CALY

WSM

GOLF

FND

ARHS

DLTR

BOBS

RH

Rankedhighesttolowest;estimatedrefundasa%ofUSrevenuerangesupto~4%.

Pricereinvestment

Broadlines(WMT,COST,TGT,BJ)shouldpushrefundsbackintoprice,particularlyingrocery.

Costoffsets

HomeImprovement(HD,LOW,FND)willlikelydeploysomeofitagainsthigherfreightandtransportationcosts.

Flow-throughtoearnings

SportingGoods,ledbygolfequipmentmanufacturersGOLFandCALY,plusDKS,shouldseethestrongestearningsflow-through.

Nodirectc