【英文】世界银行：全球碳定价现状和趋势报告

2026STATE

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State

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CorporateSolutions,World

BankGroup.The

cutoff

date

for

the

data

used

in

the

report

was

April

1,

2026

unless

otherwise

stated.iState

and

Trends

of

Carbon

Pricing2026AcknowledgementsThe

development

of

this

report

was

led

by

Anthony

Mansell

with

support

from

AshiaBio

Sawe,

Shreya

Rangarajan,

Mustafa

OzgurBozcaga,

Jia

Jun

Lee

andJuanMata,

and

under

the

guidance

of

Joseph

Pryor.

Contributions,

including

on

dataand

information

on

emissions

trading

systems,

were

provided

by

the

InternationalCarbonAction

Partnership.

S&P

GlobalEnergy

and

AlliedOffsets

alsosupported

thedevelopmentof

this

report.This

report

benefited

greatly

from

the

insights

and

contributions

from

Aaron

Tam,AlanaClement,AlexandraAndrea

MaiteCampmas,

Alienor

Cameron,

AnasuyaRaj,

Anna

Boneta,

Anushree

Arun

Shetty,

Aric

Gliesche,

ArnarHilmarsson,BasakOdemis,

Beate

Dansone,

Ben

Rattenbury,

Bota

Akhmetova,

British

Columbia

Ministryof

Energy

and

Climate

Solutions,

California

AirResourcesBoard

(CARB),

CarolinaGiovanelli,CarolynFischer,

CleanEnergyRegulator(Australia),DaniyarDzhamalov,David

Hynes,

Department

of

ClimateChange,Energy,

the

Environment

andWater(Australia),

Directorate-General

for

Climate

Action

at

the

European

Commission,

Dirk

Heine,

Dragan

Demirovic,

Environment

and

Climate

Change

Canada,

Euijin

Jung,

Gabriel

Saive,

Gjermund

Lien

Moland,

Harshani

Abeyrathna,

Hugh

Salway,Ian

Parry,

Ilze

Kamarute,

Iryna

Sikora,Jamie

Fergusson,

Jichong

Wu,

JoeGlyn,Joel

Gould,

Jolante

Krastina,

Jonathan

Beaulieu,

Juan

Mata,

Julie

Côté,

Jung-aePark,

Juris

Lukss,

Jussi

Kiviluoto,

Katie

Keegan,Kelly

Konrad,

Kim

Ricard,

KirwanCaitriona,

Klas

Wetterberg,

Konstantinos

Theodoropoulos,

Kristinn

Bjarnason,

KrittayaChunhaviriyakul,

Kuhle

Mxakaza,

Lauren

Chan,

Luca

Lo

Re,

Luis

Tineo,

MadhubhashiniGunathilaka,

Manada

Thejani,

Maral

Sotoudehnia,

Marc

Sadler,

Maria

Tsiranidou,Mark

Kenber,

Marlen

Goerner,

Martina

Bosi,

MarylaMaliszewska,

MichaelPatO’Donoghue,

Ministry

forNationalEconomy

(Hungary),

Ministry

of

Economy,Tradeand

Industry

(Japan),

Ministry

of

Environment

and

Protected

Areas,

Government

ofAlberta.,

Ministry

of

Finance

(Albania),

Ministry

of

the

Environment

(Japan),

MitémoChevalier,

Mourad

Ziani,

Natasha

Staffeldt-Jost,

Nate

Vernon,

National

Center

forClimate

Change

Strategy

and

International

Cooperation,

Ministry

of

EcologyandEnvironment

(China),

National

Climate

Change

Secretariat

(Singapore),

NationalEnvironment

Agency

(Singapore),

Ndiafhi

Tuwani,Nenad

Vlaketic,

Nicolas

Garceau,Nikola

Jovanović,

NilanthiKumuduni

Vidyalankara,

Nina

Foster,

Oficina

Española

deCambio

Climático

(Spain),

Ognjen

Popovic,

Paul

Bonmartin,

PaulineFournel,PhilippIscher,

Phoebe

Golden,

Robert

Shih,

ScottCutler,SebastienCross,SeoyiKim,SharlinHemraj,SimonBlack,SimonFellermeyer,

Susana

Escária,

Susanne

Riedener,

SvenDoruiter,SwedishEnergy

Agency,

The

DanishMinistry

ofTaxation,

Tiago

Cardoso,TokyoMetropolitanGovernment,

Valjus

Ilari,

Veli

Auvinen,

William

Hynes,

WilliamL’Heudé,

William

Space,

Yashodha

Lekamge,

Yeshika

Malik,

andYongchulPark.This

report

has

been

developed

as

part

of

the

Global

Knowledge

Program

under

thePartnership

for

Market

Implementation.iiState

and

Trends

of

Carbon

Pricing2026iiiState

and

Trends

of

Carbon

Pricing2026Table

of

ContentsiiACKNOWLEDGEMENTS1ACRONYMS

AND

ABBREVIATIONS3FOREWORD4EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY7CHAPTER

1:

INTRODUCTION12CHAPTER

2:

CARBON

PRICING29CHAPTER

3:

CARBON

CREDITING

MECHANISMS52ANNEXES65ENDNOTESForewordExecutiveSummaryChapter

1Chapter

2Chapter

3AnnexesEndnotesAbbreviations

AcronymsAbbreviations

AcronymsBCABorder

Carbon

AdjustmentIMOInternational

Maritime

OrganizationCBAMCarbon

Border

Adjustment

Mechanism

(EU)ITMOInternationally

Transferred

MitigationOutcomeCCCCarbon

CreditCertificateMoUMemorandum

of

UnderstandingCCPCore

Carbon

PrincipleMRVMonitoring,Reporting

andVerificationCCTSCarbon

Credit

Trading

System

(India)NDCNationally

Determined

ContributionCDRCarbon

Dioxide

RemovalsOIMPOther

International

Mitigation

PurposesCDMClean

Development

Mechanism

(Kyoto

Protocol

era)OECDOrganisation

for

Economic

Co-operation

and

DevelopmentCORSIACarbon

Offsetting

and

Reduction

Scheme

for

International

AviationPACMParis

Agreement

Crediting

MechanismETSEmissions

Trading

SystemREDD+Reducing

Emissions

from

Deforestation

and

forest

Degradation

plusconservationGEIGreenhouse

gas

Emissions

IntensityGHGGreenhouse

GasTCPTotalCarbonPriceGXGreen

TransformationtCO2emetric

tons

of

carbon

dioxideequivalentICAOInternational

Civil

Aviation

OrganizationTFFFTropical

Forests

Forever

FacilityICVCMIntegrity

Council

for

the

Voluntary

Carbon

MarketUNFCCCUnited

Nations

Framework

Convention

on

Climate

ChangeAcronyms

and

Abbreviations1State

and

Trends

of

Carbon

Pricing2026ForewordExecutiveSummaryChapter

1Chapter

2Chapter

3AnnexesEndnotes3427718020242025105107Average

carbon

prices

havenearly

doubled

from2016

to

20262026

US$

t/CO2eETS

and

carbon

tax

revenues

continue

to

exceedUS$

100

billion2025

US$CORSIA-approved

projectsreceived

aUS$

1.50-6/tCO2eprice

premium

over

similar

creditsthat

are

not

yet

CORSIA-approvedIf

policies

underdevelopment

arefully

implementedby

2030,

nearly1/3

of

global

GHGemissions

could

becovered

by

an

ETSor

carbon

tax2026The

first

project

receivedprovisionalissuance

fromPACMCarbon

pricingCarbon

credit

markets2023

2024

2025ComplianceuseVoluntaryuseCredit

retirements

around10%

lower

than

2024

levelsMillion

tCO2e257230From

2024

to

2025

carboncredit

issuances

increased8%21102016212221901906718842State

and

Trends

of

Carbon

Pricing

2026As

countries

navigate

a

periodof

heightened

uncertainty

–

from

fiscal

pressuresand

energy

market

volatility

to

growing

development

needs

–

policymakers

areincreasinglyfocusedon

howto

delivergrowth

thatisboth

sustainableand

resilient.In

that

context,

carbonpricing

and

carbon

markets

can

play

a

supportingrole.When

designed

well,

carbon

pricing

can

help

createincentives

forefficiency,innovation,

and

investment,

while

supporting

governments

in

mobilizingrevenuesfor

broaderdevelopmentpriorities.Carbonmarkets

canhelpchannel

investmentsintechnologicaland

natural

solutionsthat

advancesmart

developmentgoals,

fromimproving

industrial

efficiency

to

protecting

nature.Whatis

increasingly

clear

is

that

these

instruments

continue

to

evolve

and

expandglobally.NewEmissions

Trading

Systemsand

carbon

taxes

havebeen

implemented

inIndia,

Japan,

Mauritania,

Serbia,and

Viet

Nam.

While

these

countries

have

reachedimplementation

at

a

similar

moment,

their

approaches

reflect

different

institutionalcapacities

and

development

priorities.

There

is

no

single

model

for

carbon

pricing,and

successfulpoliciesmust

be

grounded

in

localrealities

andneeds.At

thesametime,

we

can

see

some

global

trends

emerging.

Today,

nearly

30

percent

of

global

greenhouse

gas

emissions

are

covered

by

a

direct

carbon

priceacross

87

implemented

policies.

The

entry

into

force

of

the

EU’s

Carbon

BorderAdjustment

Mechanism

marks

a

further

evolution,

extending

carbon

pricing

towardsinternational

trade.

Looking

ahead,

additional

countries—including

Brazil

andTürkiye—are

preparing

policies.Carbon

credit

marketsare

also

expanding

into

newareas.

As

this

report

highlights,creditscanfindnew

marketsifthey

meettheright

criteria,includingsupportinginternationalaviationtoachievetheir

goalsthrough

CORSIA.

At

the

World

BankGroup,

our

objective

is

to

support

both

scale

and

integrity

for

carbon

pricing

andcarbon

markets.Thisincludes

helping

countries

inmaking

strategic

choices,frombuilding

the

infrastructure

that

underpins

international

transfers

to

working

withpolicymakers

to

inform

carbon

pricingdesign.This

year’sedition

ofthe

State

and

Trends

of

Carbon

Pricing

reportalso

providesanopportunity

to

reflect

on

the

past

decade.

Viewed

over

this

longer

horizon,

severaltrends

stand

out

clearly:

carbon

pricing

has

expanded

significantly,

with

morediverseapproaches

to

its

design,

and

steadilyincreasingcarbon

prices.

Carbon

markets

haveexpanded

bothin

size

and

the

potential

uses

they

serve

and

now

exist

ina

moreelaborate

ecosystem

to

generate,

trade,

and

evaluate

credits.

I

hope

that

this

year’sreportcontinues

to

supportinformed

debate

and

practicaldecision

making

in

arapidly

changing

global

landscape.Paschal

DonohoeManaging

Director

and

Chief

Knowledge

Officer,

World

BankGroup3State

and

Trends

of

Carbon

Pricing2026ForewordExecutiveSummaryChapter

1Chapter

2Chapter

3AnnexesEndnotesForewordExecutiveSummary5State

and

Trends

of

Carbon

Pricing2026CARBON

PRICING29%Direct

carbon

pricing

covers29percentof global

greenhouse

gas

(GHG)

emissions through

87

implemented

policies.Global

GHG

emissions

covered

by

EmissionsTradingSystems

(ETSs)

havetripled

since

2016,rising

from

eight

percent

to

over

24

percent;

bycontrast,

the

share

covered

by

carbon

taxes

hasremained

relativelystableataroundfourto

fivepercent,with

increases

in

2026

driven

by

nationalETSsin

India,

Japan

and

Viet

Nam.If

ETSs

andcarbon

taxes

currentlyunderdevelopment

are

fully

implemented,

by

2030nearly

one-third

ofglobal

GHG

emissions

will

becovered

by

carbon

pricing.Although

the

EU’s

Carbon

Border

AdjustmentMechanism

(CBAM)

coversless

than0.5

percentof

globalGHGemissions,itsformaladoptionhas

served

to

increase

interest

in

implementingboth

carbon

pricing

and

other

border

carbonadjustments.Direct

carbon

prices

across

carbon

taxes andETSs

have

increased

by

seven

percent since

April

2025.The

average

carbon

price

acrossimplementedinstruments

has

doubled

between

2016

and

2026from

US$

10/tCO2e

to

nearly

US$

21/tCO2e,drivenby

ETS

priceincreases.While

average

carbon

tax

rates

have

remainedrelatively

constant,

scheduled

increases

in

2026

have

taken

effect

in

jurisdictions

includingSingapore,whichincreaseditscarbontax

rate

by

80

percent.Prices

in

ETSs

have

experienced

significantvolatility

in

2026,

particularly

since

recentdisruptions

to

global

commodity

markets

began.Annual

government

revenues

from

ETSs andcarbontaxesin2025roseby

two percent

to

over

US$

107

billion.Carbon

pricing

revenue

collected

by

governmentshas

risen

from

under

US$

30

billion

in

2016

tooverUS$

100

billion

eachyear,

in

real

terms,

since

2021.The

vast

majority

of

revenues

occurin

developedeconomies,

noting

that

carbon

prices

in

developing

economies

are

generally

lower,

and

the

use

of

allowance

auctions

is

currently

limited

inETSs

in

major

middle-income

countries.Carbonpricingrevenues

continueto

bedirectedtoward

climate

mitigation

investments,

includingJapan’s

new

GX-ETS,

which

will

channel

futurerevenues

toward

a

national

fund

for

energytransition

projects.ForewordExecutiveSummaryChapter

1Chapter

2Chapter

3AnnexesEndnotes6State

and

Trends

of

Carbon

Pricing2026CARBON

CREDIT

MARKETSOverall

carbon

credit

issuances

rose

eight percent

from

2024

to

2025,

still

20percent below

2022

levels,

but

more

than

80

percent above

thelevel

of

issuances

adecadeago.Governmental

crediting

mechanisms

haveincreased

innumber

from24

to

34overthe

past

10

years,

withcreditissuances

rising

bynearly

40

percentin2025

compared

to

2024.Issuances

from

independent

crediting

mechanisms

decreased

byaround

fourpercentbetween

2024

and

2025

but

remainaround

70percent

of

total

credit

issuances.The

first

credits

under

the

newly

operational

Paris

Agreement

Crediting

Mechanism

(PACM)were

provisionally

issued

to

a

clean

cookstovesproject

in

Myanmar.Retirements

of

carbon

credits

declined

by more

than

10

percent

from

2024

to

2025, attributed

to

credits

used

for

compliance

in California

returning

to

2023

levels

after

a ten-fold

spike

in

2024.Credits

used

for

voluntary

purposes

dominateretirements,

representing

over

80

percent

of

thetotal

credits

retired

in

2025.Beyond

current

retirements,

future

demandsignalscan

be

seen

in

theUS$

12

billion

of

offtakeagreementsforfuturecarboncreditssigned

in2025,

marking

a

three-fold

rise

from

2024levels.Projects

that

receive

either

high

ratings

from

third-party

providers

or

high

integrity

labels

areincreasingly

sought

by

buyers

in

both

complianceand

voluntary

carbon

credit

markets.Carbon

credit

prices

across

project

types declined

slightly

across

2025,

but

creditsthat are

eligible

for

international

compliance

or obtained

high

ratings

continue

to

generate

a price

premium.The

largest

price

movement

occurred

in

forestconservation

projects

in

Southeast

Asia,

whereconstrained

supply

created

a

short-term

spike

inprices

for

these

credits

in

the

second

half

of

2025.Carbon

Offsetting

and

Reduction

Scheme

forInternational

Aviation

(CORSIA)

eligible

credits

havetraded

since

September

2025

at

prices

betweenUS$

15/tCO2e

and

US$

22/tCO2e,

which

exceeds

the

price

range

for

most

other

credit

types

(US$1–14/tCO2e).There

is

growing

evidence

of

a

correlationbetweenhowa

project

isevaluated

by

rating

agenciesand

its

market

price,

reflected,

for

example,

in

an87

percent

price

increase

for

each

rating

band

forreforestation

projects.ForewordExecutiveSummaryChapter

1Chapter

2Chapter

3AnnexesEndnotesChapter

1Introduction8State

and

Trends

of

Carbon

Pricing2026CHAPTER

1:Introduction1.1

Carbon

pricing

is

an

important

part

of

governments’policy

toolboxGovernments

are

currently

facing

unprecedented

disruptions

to

globalcommodity

supplies.

The

reduction

of

global

oil

supply

in

March

2026,

estimatedat

around

10

million

barrels

per

day

represents

the

largest

oil

shock

on

record.1

Inaddition,

disruption

of

shipping

through

the

Strait

of

Hormuz

is

impacting

internationaltrade

in

other

commodities

such

as

natural

gas,

fertilizer

and

aluminum.

Althoughdevelopments

areshifting

rapidly,atthe

timeofwriting

theshortfall

inoilsupply

anddisruption

to

other

commodities

have

not

yet

been

alleviated.This

year’s

report

is

being

published

as

governments

begin

to

grapple

with

these

developments.

Policy

makers

are

navigating

the

impacts

of

commodity

priceincreases

and

supply

disruptions

on

their

populations.

Thisincludes

the

potential

toadjust

carbon

pricing

policiessuch

as

Emissions

TradingSystems(ETSs)

or

carbontaxes.Discussionsare

ongoingin

some

jurisdictions,

suchas

inthe

EU

where

changeshavebeen

proposed

to

the

European

Union

Emissions

Trading

System

(EUETS)anda

comprehensive

review

of

the

policy

is

scheduled

for

July

2026.2

In

other

instances,governments

have

already

taken

actions,

such

as

the

government

of

Ireland’sannouncement

on

April

12

to

delayanincreaseinits

national

carbon

tax

from

Mayto

October

2026

due

to

rising

fuel

costs.3

This

report

largely

reflects

developmentsand

trends

prior

to

disruptions

in

global

commodity

markets,

but

it

could

be

highlysignificant

over

the

coming

12

months.When

viewed

over

a

longer

time

frame,

many

governments

are

choosing

toimplement

carbon

pricing

as

a

tool

toward

achieving

development

and

economicobjectives.

Direct

carbon

pricing

through

a

carbon

tax

or

emissions

trading

systemcan

contribute

toward

achieving

countries’own

emission

reduction

targets,

includingNationally

Determined

Contributions

(NDCs)

submitted

to

the

United

NationsFrameworkConvention

on

Climate

Change

(UNFCCC)

by

national

governmentsand

legislated

targets

set

by

subnationalgovernments.

For

example,

an

ETS

with

adeclining

absolute

emissions

cap

or

intensity

baseline

canincentivize

coveredfacilitiesto

reducetheiremissionsover

time.However,carbonpricing

canofferimportantlong-term

benefits

beyond

climate

mitigation,

including

facilitating

investment

flows,promoting

affordable,

domestically-sourced

energy,

increasing

energy

security

andproviding

anewsourceof

governmentrevenue.Further,carbon

pricing

can

form

acomponent

of

broader

policy

reform

packages,

such

as

restructuring

energy

taxationor

as

a

response

to

international

trade

measures

suchas

border

carbon

adjustments.Between

2016

and

thestart

of

2026,

carbon

pricing

has

expanded

and

diversified.The

pillars

of

carbon

pricing

remain:

direct

carbon

pricing

through

carbon

taxes

andETSs,

alongside

indirect

carbon

pricing

measures

such

as

reducedfossil

fuelsubsidiesand

energy

taxes.

The

State

and

Trends

report

series

has

tracked

the

growth

of

directcarbon

pricing

over

the

past

decade,

and

beyond.

These

carbon

pricing

mechanismsare

complemented

by

other

policies

and

regulations,

such

as

portfolio

standards

forelectricity

generation,

and

reforms

of

legacy

policies

that

predate

the

prioritization

ofdecarbonizationas

a

project

development.ForewordExecutiveSummaryChapter

1Chapter

2Chapter

3AnnexesEndnotes9State

and

Trends

of

Carbon

Pricing2026A

decade

ago,the

carbon

pricing

landscape

was

more

limited

than

it

is

today.In

2016,

39

carbontaxesand

ETSs

were

implemented

globally,

coveringaround

12

percent

of

global

GHG

emissions.

The

Paris

Agreement,

which

was

adopted

inDecember

2015,

did

not

feature

its

own

operational

market

mechanisms.

Instead,international

carbonmarkets

focusedon

unitscreated

bythe

flexibilitymechanismsunder

the

Kyoto

Protocol,

including

those

certified

under

the

Clean

DevelopmentMechanism

and

Joint

Implementation

mechanisms,

though

demand

for

these

creditshad

already

peaked

several

years

earlier.

Bycontrast,

credits

from

independentcrediting

mechanisms

represented

a

smaller

share

of

total

issuance,

and

weremostlyusedbycompanies

aspart

ofvoluntaryclimate

commitments(prior

tothelaterexpansion

in

demand

for

suchcredits).Over

the

intervening

years,

carbon

pricing

approaches