曼昆第10版课件mankiw10e-lecture-slides-ch07

UnemploymentandtheLaborMarketMacroeconomicsN.GregoryMankiw©2019WorthPublishers,allrightsreservedINTHISCHAPTER,YOUWILLLEARN:…aboutthenaturalrateofunemployment:whatitmeanswhatcausesitunderstandingitsbehaviorintherealworldNaturalrateofunemploymentNaturalrateofunemployment:

Theaveragerateofunemploymentaroundwhichtheeconomyfluctuates.Inarecession,theactualunemploymentraterisesabovethenaturalrate.Inaboom,theactualunemploymentratefallsbelowthenaturalrate.Actualandnaturalratesofunemployment,U.S.,1960–2014AfirstmodelofthenaturalrateNotation:L

=#ofworkersinlaborforceE

=#ofemployedworkersU

=#ofunemployedU/L

=unemploymentrateAssumptions1.L

isexogenouslyfixed.2.Duringanygivenmonth,s

=rateofjobseparation,fractionofemployedworkerswhobecome

separatedfromtheirjobsf

=rateofjobfinding,fractionofunemployedworkerswhofindjobss

andf

areexogenousThetransitionsbetweenemploymentandunemploymentThesteady-stateconditionDefinition:thelabormarketisinsteadystate,orlong-runequilibrium,iftheunemploymentrateisconstant.Thesteady-stateconditionis:Findingthe“equilibrium”unemploymentratef×U=

s

×E=

s

×(L–

U)=

s

×L–

s×USolveforU/L:(f

+s)

×U

=s

×

Lso,Example:Eachmonth,1%ofemployedworkerslosetheirjobs(s=0.01)19%ofunemployedworkersfindjobs(f=0.19)Findthenaturalrateofunemployment:PolicyimplicationApolicywillreducethenaturalrateofunemploymentonlyifitlowerssorincreasesf.Whyisthereunemployment?(1of2)Ifjobfindingwereinstantaneous(f=1),thenallspellsofunemploymentwouldbebrief,andthenaturalratewouldbenearzero.Therearetworeasonswhyf<1:jobsearchwagerigidityJobsearchandfrictionalunemploymentFrictionalunemployment:causedbythetimeittakesworkerstosearchforajoboccursevenwhenwagesareflexibleandthereareenoughjobstogoaroundoccursbecauseworkershavedifferentabilities,preferencesjobshavedifferentskillrequirementsgeographicmobilityofworkersnotinstantaneousflowofinformationaboutvacanciesandjobcandidatesisimperfectSectoralshiftssectoralshifts:changesinthecompositionofdemandamongindustriesorregionsexample:technologicalchange

morejobsrepairingcomputers,fewerjobsrepairingtypewritersexample:anewinternationaltradeagreement

labordemandincreasesinexportsectors,decreasesinimport-competingsectorsThesescenariosresultinfrictionalunemployment.Moreexamplesofsectoralshifts,part1Industrialrevolution(1800s):agriculturedeclines,manufacturingsoarsEnergycrisis(1970s):demandshiftsfromlargercarstosmalleronesHealthcarespendingas%ofGDP:1960:5.22000:13.81980:9.12010:17.9Inourdynamiceconomy,

smallersectoralshiftsoccurfrequently,contributingtofrictionalunemployment.Moreexamplesofsectoralshifts,part2Governmentprogramsaffectingunemploymentinclude:Governmentemploymentagencies

disseminateinfoaboutjobopeningstobettermatchworkersandjobs.Publicjobtrainingprograms

helpworkersdisplacedfromdecliningindustriesgetskillsneededforjobsingrowingindustries.Unemploymentinsurance(UI)UIpayspartofaworker’sformerwagesforalimitedtimeaftertheworkerloseshis/herjob.UIincreasesfrictionalunemploymentbecauseitreducestheopportunitycostofbeingunemployedtheurgencyoffindingworkfStudies:ThelongeraworkeriseligibleforUI,thelongertheaveragespellofunemployment.BenefitsofUIByallowingworkersmoretimetosearch:UImayleadtobettermatchesbetweenjobsandworkerswhichwouldleadtogreaterproductivityandhigherincomesWhyisthereunemployment?(2of2)Thenaturalrateofunemployment:Tworeasonswhyf<1:DONE

1.jobsearchNext

2.wagerigidityUnemploymentfromrealwagerigidity,part1Iftherealwageisstuckaboveitsequilibriumlevel,therearen’tenoughjobstogoaround.Unemploymentfromrealwagerigidity,part2Iftherealwageisstuckaboveitsequilibriumlevel,therearen’tenoughjobstogoaround.Then,firmsmustrationthescarcejobsamongworkers.Structuralunemployment:Theunemploymentresultingfromrealwagerigidityandjobrationing.Reasonsforwagerigidityminimum-wagelawslaborunionsefficiencywages1.Minimum-wagelawsTheminimumwagemayexceedtheequilibriumwageofunskilledworkers,especiallyteenagers.Studies:a10%increaseinminimumwagereducesteenemploymentby1–3%But,theminimumwagecannotexplainthemajorityofthenaturalrateofunemployment,asmostworkers’wagesarewellabovetheminimumwage.2.LaborunionsUnionsexercisemonopolypowertosecurehigherwagesfortheirmembers.Whentheunionwageexceedstheequilibriumwage,unemploymentresults.Insiders:employedunionworkerswhoseinterestistokeepwageshighOutsiders:unemployednon-unionworkerswhopreferequilibriumwages,sotherewouldbeenoughjobsforthemUnionmembershipandwagerationsbyindustry,2013Industry#Employed(1,000s)U%oftotalWageratioPrivatesector(total)104,7376.9122.6Government(total)20,45037.0121.1Construction6,24414.0151.7Mining7807.296.4Manufacturing13,59910.5107.2Retailtrade14,5824.9102.4Transportation4,35520.4123.5Finance,insurance6,1111.190.2Professionalservices12,1712.199.1Education4,02013.0112.6Healthcare15,8357.5114.9wageratio=100×

(unionwage)/(nonunionwage)3.EfficiencywagesTheoriesinwhichhigherwagesincreaseworkerproductivityby:attractinghigher-qualityjobapplicantsincreasingworkereffort,reducing“shirking”reducingturnover,whichiscostlytofirmsimprovinghealthofworkers

(indevelopingcountries)Firmswillinglypayabove-equilibriumwagestoraiseproductivity.Result:structuralunemploymentNOWYOUTRY

QuestionfordiscussionUsethematerialwe’vejustcoveredtocomeupwithapolicyorpoliciestotrytoreducethenaturalrateofunemployment.Notewhetheryourpolicytargetsfrictionalorstructuralunemployment.ThemediandurationofunemploymentThedurationofunemploymenttypicallyrisesinrecessions—butitsrisein2008–2010wasunprecedented.Discouragedworkersdiscouragedworkers:workerswhohavegivenuponlookingforajobandareconsideredoutofthelaborforcemarginallyattachedworkers:personsnotinthelaborforcewhowantandareavailableforworkandwhohavelookedforajobbuthavenotrecentlylookedforworkDiscouragedworkersareincludedinmarginallyattachedworkers.OthermeasuresofunemploymentVariableDescriptionRateU-1Personsunemployed15weeksorlonger,asapercentofthecivilianlaborforce(includesonlyverylong-termunemployed)1.7U-2Joblosersandpersonswhohavecompletedtemporaryjobs,asapercentofthecivilianlaborforce(excludesjobleavers)2.1U-3Totalunemployed,asapercentofthecivilianlaborforce(officialunemploymentrate)4.3U-4Totalunemployed,plusdiscouragedworkers,asapercentofthecivilianlaborforceplusdiscouragedworkers4.7U-5Totalunemployedplusallmarginallyattacehdworkers,asapercentofthecivilianlaborforceplusallmarginallyattachedworkers5.3U-6Totalunemployed,plusallmarginallyattachedworkers,plustotalemployedparttimeforeconomicreasons,asapercentofthecivilianlaborforceplusallmarginallyattachedworkers8.6LaborforceparticipationUnemploymentinEurope,1960–2013WhyunemploymentroseinEuropebutnottheUnitedStatesShock

TechnologicalprogressshiftinglabordemandfromunskilledtoskilledworkersinrecentdecadesEffectinUnitedStates

Anincreaseinthe“skillpremium”—thewagegapbetweenskilledandunskilledworkersEffectinEurope

Higherunemployment,duetogenerousgovernmentbenefitsforunemployedworkersandstrongunionpresencePercentageofworkerscoveredbycollectivebargaining,selectedcountriesTurkey7%SouthKorea12UnitedStates12Poland15Japan17Israel26Canada29UnitedKingdom30Greece42Switzerland49Germany58Australia60Spain78Italy80Netherlands85Sweden89Belgium96France98CHAPTERSUMMARY,PART1Thenaturalrateofunem