野村-印度尼西亚：不断演变的政策框架削弱外商直接投资前景-Indonesia：The evolving policy framework dims FDI prospects-20260827

NOAURA

SpecialReport

【价值目录】网整

https://www.val

GlobalMarketsResearch

27August2026

Indonesia:TheevolvingpolicyframeworkdimsFDIprospects

recentmonths,includingmajorannouncementsincommodity-

·Wetakestockofthegovernment'sseveralpolicychangesin

relatedregulations.Thestill-evolvingpolicyenvironmentislikely

toaddtouncertainty,whichisaheadwindforFDI.

·Basedonoureconometricmodel,wefindevidenceofthe

negativeimpactofrisingdomesticpolicyuncertainty,andwe

forecastFDiinflowstoslowmateriallyinthecomingquarters.

·Thissuggeststhebasicbalancewillremainindeficitandthat

pressuresontheoverallbalanceofpayments(BOP)could

persist.WestillexpectBltohikeitspolicyratebyanother50bp

inQ42026.

challengingIndonesia'sBOP,owingtothepotentialforportfolio

deficit-allinthefaceofrelativelylowFXreserveadequacy

ourmedium-termviewofIDR

,withourcurrentstrategyrecommendationR.

outflows,slowingnetFDIinflowsandawideningcurrentaccount

·FXstrategy:Concernsovergovernmentpolicyarelikelytokeep

ResearchAnalysts

AsiaEconomics

NabilaAmani-NSL

nabila.amani@+6564336409

EubenParacuelles-NSL

euben.paracuelles@+6564336956

AsiaFXStrategy

CraigChan-NSL

craig.chan@+6564336106

WeeChoonTeo-NSL

weechoon.teo@+6564336107

VickyChen-NSL

vicky.chen1@+6564336540

SeeAppendixA-1foranalystcertification,importantdisclosuresandthestatusofnon-USanalysts.

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Nomura|SpecialReport【价值目录7u整gut：2026

Contents

Executivesummary

3

FDIinflowshaveweakenedrecently

4

Deregulationremainsaworkinprogress

6

Thederegulationtaskforceisstillunderwayafteroneyear

6

Directinvestmentlawrevisedbutimplementationwillbekeytowatch

7

Localcontentrequirements(LCR)couldstillpresentchallengesforFDI

8

Mixedsignalsfromrecentimportderegulationmeasures

11

Box1:TheSpecialEconomicZones

13

Box2:FDIintodatacentersstilllooklimited

14

Majorpolicychangesintheresourcesector

14

Awaitingimplementationclarityofthenewstateexportagency

14

Strengthenedretentionruleofexportproceedsfromnaturalresources

16

QuantifyingtheimpactonFDI

18

BOPpressuresandmonetarypolicyresponses

21

FXStrategy:IDR–Thesqueezefromgovernmentpolicy

24

References

29

RecentSpecialReports

31

AppendixA-1

32

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Executivesummary

FDIinflowsaremoderating,ledbyslowinginflowsintotheresourcesector,whilethoseintomanufacturing,whichaccountsforthelargestshareoftotalinflows,havealso

remainedsubdued.Indonesia’scompetitivenessrankingsarealsofacingsome

headwinds,particularlyineaseofdoingbusiness,andarebelowitsASEANpeers.Whilethegovernmenthasrecentlyannouncedaslewofmeasuresaimedatimprovingthe

businessclimate,wethinktherapidlyevolvingpolicyframeworkiscontributingtoincreaseduncertaintyintheregulatoryenvironment.

Inthisreport,wetakestockofthesegovernmentpolicychangesandhowtheycould

affecttheoutlookforFDIinflows.Deregulationefforts,suchasrevisionstothedirect

investmentlawandthelocalcontentrequirements(LCR)law,areunderwaybutremainaworkinprogress,inourview.Majorrevisionstopoliciesrelatedtothecommoditysector,suchasthecreationofthenewstateexportagency,DanantaraSumberdayaIndonesia(DSI),andthestrengtheningoftheFXexportproceedsrepatriationrule,need

implementationclarity.

ToquantifytheimpactofpolicyuncertaintyonFDIprospects,weconstructastandard

econometricmodel.Theresultsshowthathighpolicyuncertaintyhasanegativeand

significantimpactonFDIinflows.Basedonthemodel,weestimatethatnetFDIinflowswillslowmateriallyto0.6%ofGDPin2026fromthe1.1%averageoverthelastthree

years.Atthesametime,takingintoaccounttherecordhighcurrentaccountdeficit(CAD)

inQ2,wealsoreviseupour2026CADforecastto2.0%ofGDPfrom1.7%.

Wethereforeexpectthebasicbalancetoremainsignificantlynegativeinthecoming

quarters,suggestingpersistentpressuresontheoverallbalanceofpayments,atatime

whenexternalrisksremainfairlyelevated.Wecontinuetoforecastanother50bpofBI

hikesinQ4to6.25%inabidtosupportthecurrency,butacknowledgeuncertaintyaroundourforecastremainshigh.

FXstrategy

Wemaintainourmedium-termviewofIDR,withourcurrentstrategyrecommendationbeinglongSGD/IDR.Numerousthemessupportourview,includinggovernmentpoliciesthatareaffectingforeigninvestorsnegatively,BI

independence/policycredibility,sovereignratingrisksandpotentialequityindexrevisions.

ThesefactorsarelikelytokeepchallengingIndonesia’sBoPowingtothepotentialfor

portfoliooutflows,slowingnetFDIinflowsandawideningcurrentaccountdeficit–allinthefaceofrelativelylowFXreserveadequacylevels.However,therearesomemitigatingfactors,suchasinvestorshavingalreadybeenunderweightIndonesiabondsforovera

year,someadjustmenttoforeignequitypositioningthisyearandtheweakerUSDthemethatisbuilding.

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FDIinflowshaveweakenedrecently

NetFDIinflowshaverecentlyweakened(Figure1),reachingUSD2.8bninQ22026,only

marginallyhigherthanUSD2.3bninQ1whichwasarecordlowsinceSeptember2020.ThistranslatesintonetFDIinflowsaveragingUSD2.5bninH12026,slowerthanUSD3.9bninH22025.Thedeclinewasprimarilydrivenbyweakerinflows(liabilities).Outflows(assets)easedbutremainedsizeable,andthebasicbalanceturnednegativeasaresult(seeAsiaInsights-Indonesia:ThecurrentaccountdeficitwidenedinQ1,25May2026).Inour

view,severalfactorsdrovethedeclineinFDIinflows.Extemaluncertaintyhasbeen

elevatedsinceQ1,especiallyduetotheconfictintheMiddleEastandtheblockadeoftheStraitofHormuz.Domestically,regulatoryuncertaintyhasrisen,aswediscussbelow,whichlikelycontributedtoreducedcompetitiveness.

SubstantialdeclinesinFDIintotheresourcesector

Bysector,themostconsiderablefallsinFDIinflowswasintheprimary(resource)sector(Figure2),withnetoutflowsofUSD0.5bninQ2,similartoUSD0.4bninQ1,dragged

downbymining/quarryingandagriculture.This,inourview,waslikelyduetomore

stringentregulationsaffectingthesector,includingtheimplementationofastrengthenedrepatrationandretentionruleofFXexportproceedsfromnaturalresources("DHESDA";morebelow).TheFDIinflowsintothesecondary(manufacturing)sector,whichaccountsforthelargestshareofabout60-70%oftotal,hasalsoeased,averagingUSD2.7bninH12026,slowingfromUSD3.4bninH22025.

Fig.1:Indonesia:Foreigndirectinvestment(FDI)realization

USDbn8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.M0ar-23ep-23Mar-24Dec-24Jun-2S5ep-25Jun-26

AssetsLiabilitiesNetFDIinflows

Note:Tomakeitconsistentwiththesectoralbreakdown,weusedirectinvestmentdatabasedoninvestmentdirectionwhichappearsas"memorandum"inbalanceofpaymentsBPM6definition.

Source:BankIndonesia,CEIC,NomuraGlobalEconomics

Fig.2:Indonesia:FDIinflowsbysector

USDbn8.0

7.06.0

5.04.0

3.02.0

1.00.0

Sep-23

Dec-2ar-25Dec-25Jun-26

■Primary■Secondary■Tertiary

Note:Thefiguresaredirectinvestmentflows(liabilities).Wedividethesectorsintothreeclassifications:primary(e.g.agriculture,fishing,mining),secondary(manufacturing,

electricity,construction),andtertiary(wholesale,hotel&restaurants,others).

Source:BankIndonesia,CEIC,NomuraGlobalEconomics

...althoughinflowsfromChinastillheldup

However,FDIinflowsfromChina(includingHongKong),oneofIndonesia'stopsources,haveremainedrobust(Figure3).China(excludingHongKong)investsprimarilyin

manufacturing,realestateandwholesale&retailtrade.Interestingly,FDIinflowsfrom

ChinaintothemanufacturingsectorjumpedconsiderablytoUSD1.3bninQ12026,beforeeasingbackagaintoUSD0.8bninQ2,markedlyhigherthantheUSD0.4bnonaveragebetweenQ12023andQ42025(Figure4).

AccordingtoBankIndonesia(BI),mostFDIinflowsinQ2wereconcentratedinthe

manufacturingsector,particularlyplantationprocessing,aswellasrubberandbase

metalsprocessing.Inourview,thisisconsistentwiththegovernment'spushtowardsthedownstreamingpolicyofrawmineralsfollowingthebuildoutofsmeltingcapacitysince2014,mostlybyChinesecompanies(seeIndonesia:Assessingthesustainabilityofthecurrentaccountsurplus,8May2023).

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Fig.3:Indonesia:FDIinflowsbycountry

USDbn8.0

7.06.05.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.ar-23Dec-23

■Singapore■China■HongKong

Note:Thefiguresaredirectinvestmentflows(liabilities).

Source:BankIndonesia,CEIC,NomuraGlobalEconomics

Fig.4:Indonesia:FDIinflowsfromChinabysector

USDbn

■Manufacturing

■RealEstate

■Wholesale&RetailTrade

■Others

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

Sep-238SenMar-25Sep-25

1.2

Note:Thefiguresaredirectinvestmentflows(liabilities).FlowsbreakdownforHongKongarenotavailable.

Source:BankIndonesia,CEIC,NomuraGlobalEconomics

Competitivenessrankingfacesheadwinds

TheWorldBank'sBusinessReady(B-Ready)Index,whichquantitativelyassessesthebusinessandinvestmentclimatebasedonthreepillars,showsthatbetween2024and2025Indonesiahasimprovedintermsoftheregulatoryframework(writtenregulations)buthasdeclinedinpublicservicesandoperationalefficiency(Figure5).Accordingtotheframework,competitivenessnotonlydependonwrittenregulations,butalsodefacto

conditionsofhowbusinessservicesaredeliveredandhoweasyitisforbusinessestocomplywithrulesandusepublicservices,twopillarsonwhichIndonesiahasbeen

lagging.ComparedtoASEANpeers,wecalculatethat,in2025,Indonesia'saveragescoreforthethreepillarsis62.2,belowSingapore(77.4),Malaysia(65.7)andVietnam

(63.8).

Morerecently,onitslatestWorldCompetitivenessRanking,theInstituteforManagementDevelopment(IMD)rankedIndonesia48thoutof70countries,fallingfrom27thin2024and40thin2025(Figure6).Thedeclineinrankingsoccurredinthree(outoffour)

metrics:governmentefficiency,businessefficiencyandinfrastructure.Themost

significantdropwasinbusinessefficiency,withIndonesiaranking50thplace,droppingfrom26thinthepreviousyear.Onitsindividualcountrypage,IMDnotedspecific

challengesforIndonesia,including“inadequateinfrastructureandhumanresourcecompetence”and“limitedavailabilityoffinancingresources”,likelycontributingtothefallingranking.IndonesiaalsoranksbehinditsASEANpeers.

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Fig.5:Indonesia:TheWorldBankBusinessReadyRanking

unitscore(low=0)

68

66

63.4

62.0

62

60

58

56

54

PillarIl

Publicservices

PillarⅢOperationalefficiency

Pillarl

Regulatoryframework

65.664.0

■2024■2025

61.3

64

Note:BusinessReady(B-Ready)isaprojectoftheWorldBankGroupassessingbusinessandinvestmentclimateworldwide,replacingDoingBusinessprojectthatwas

discontinuedafterits2020reportrelease.B-READYpresentsscoresforthethreepillars.PillarI(RegulatoryFramework)focusesonlawsandregulationsthatbusinessesmust

follow,suchashowtoregisteracompany,laborprotections,resolvingdisputes,etc.PillarIl(PublicServices)measuresavailabilityofonlinesystemforpermits,digitaltaxplatforms,andinfrastructureatbordersfortrade.PillarⅢ(OperationalEfficiency)

measuresreal-worldexperienceoffirms,suchashowlongittakestogetutilitiesconnected,reliabilityofdigitalpayment,etc.

Source:TheWorldBank,NomuraGlobalEconomics

Fig.6:Indonesia:InstituteforManagementDevelopment(IMD)WorldCompetitivenessRanking

2025

2026

Overallscore

IMD

Ranking

Overallscore

IMD

Ranking

Singapore

99.4

2

100.0

1

China

82.1

16

84.4

12

Malaysia

74.8

23

81.9

15

ThailandVietnam

71.3

30

71.1

70.6

26

27

-

India

64.2

41

62.0

44

Philippines

54.9

51

59.1

47

Indonesia

64.3

40

57.6

48

Turkiye

40.4

66

47.2

57

Brazil

46.4

58

40.2

65

Note:TheIMDWorldCompetitivenessRankinganalyzesandranksthecapacityof

economiestocreateandmaintainanenvironmentthatsustainsthecompetitivenessofenterprises.Therankingusesfourmainpillars:economicperformance,business

efficiency,governmentefficiency,andinfrastructure.Itisbuiltonover250indicatorsacrossfourpillars,combininghardstatisticswithexecutiveopinionsurveydata.

Source:IMD,NomuraGlobalEconomics

Whilethegovernmenthasannouncedreformsaimedatimprovingthebusinessclimate,competitivenessrankingshavefacedheadwinds.AsthePrabowoadministration'spolicyframeworkcontinuestodevelop,wethinkpolicyuncertaintyremainsaconsiderationforattractingFDIinflows,aswediscussnext.

Deregulationremainsaworkinprogress

Thederegulationtaskforceisstillunderwayafteroneyear

InApril2025,PresidentPrabowoannouncedtheplantoestablisha"DeregulationTask

Force"tostreamlineregulations,speedupbusinesspermitsandaccelerateinvestments.Thetaskforcewilltackleinvestmentbarriers,includinglocalcontentrequirements(LCR)andtaxauditingprocesses,whichhavepreviouslycausedfrictionwithforeigncompanies,suchasAppleoveriPhone16salesrestrictions.Atthetime,thegovernmentconsideredan"incentive-based"approachtocalculatingLCR,withPresidentPrabowoaimingtohaveamore“pragmatic"and“flexible”regulation.1CoordinatingMinisterAirlanggaalso

explainedthat,inadditiontotheLCR,"deregulation"alsoincludesprovisionsonnon-tariffbarriers,suchasimportlicencesandquotas.[2][3

OnMarch2026,thepresidentissuedPresidentialDecree(Keppres)No.4/2026,which

mandatedthecreationofanothertaskforceto“accelerategovernmentprogramsto

supporteconomicgrowth”.Thetaskforcewilloperateunderthedirectauthorityof

PresidentPrabowoandbeco-ledbyCoordinatingMinisterforEconomicsAirlangga

HartartoandMinisterofStateSecretaryPrasetyoHadi.Severalhigh-rankingofficialshold

deputychairpositions,includingFinanceMinisterPurbayaYudhiSadewaandInvestment

Minister/DanantaraCEORosanRoeslani.Thetaskforceconsistsof27ministersand

agencyheads.4][5

Thatsaid,thescopeofworkandofthistaskforcearebroad,inourview,withnoexplicitgoalregarding"deregulation."Specifically,inArticle3oftheKeppres,thetaskforceisresponsibletothepresidentonthefollowingduties:

·Establishingintegratedandcollaborativestrategicstepsintheframeworkofacceleratinggovernmentprogramimplementationtosupporteconomicgrowth.

·Monitorandevaluatebudgetrealizationtosupporttheimplementationofgovernmentprogramsforeconomicgrowth.

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•Establishingstrategicproblem-solvingmeasuresthataretransparent,fastandpreciseinacceleratinggovernmentprogramimplementationtosupporteconomicgrowth.

•Carryingoutothertasksassignedbythepresident.[6]

Meanwhile,recentnewsindicatestheDeregulationTaskForceremainsinitsplanningandconsultationphase.[7][8]Inourview,atimelyestablishmentofthetaskforcewouldhelpsignalthegovernment'scommitmenttoimprovingthebusinessclimateand

implementingreforms,whileanydelaycouldconstrainFDI.

Directinvestmentlawrevisedbutimplementationwillbekeytowatch

InOctober2025,theIndonesiangovernmentenactedtwonewregulationsgoverning

directinvestment:GovernmentRegulation(GR)No.28/2025andBKPMRegulationNo.5/2025.Theserulesreplacesimilarregulationsfrom2021andaimtostreamlinelicensingprocessesandclarifyinvestmentincentivesthroughthegovernment'sOnlineSingle

Submission(OSS)system,whichisagovernmentdigitalplatformlaunchedin2018andisdesignedtobeaone-stopshopforbusinesslicensing.

Specifically,BKPMRegulationNo.5/2025introducesbindingservice-levelstandards

(“SLAs”)andtimeframesacrosslicensingcategories,whichdefinethemaximum

processingtimesforkeylicensingstages–includingdocumentverification,substantivereviewandissuance–acrossmultipletypesofbusinesslicencesandapprovals.Theseinclude,forexample,technicalapprovals(persetujuanteknis),environmentalapprovalsandbuildingapprovals.Ifabusinessapplicationiscompleteandauthoritiesdonot

respondwithintheregulatedtimeframe,thelicensewillbeautomaticallygrantedthroughtheOSSsystemwithfulllegalvalidity.Thisisamajordeparturefrompreviousregulationsin2021,whichdefinedapprovalmechanismmorenarrowly,andoftenleftits

implementationunclear.[9]

AccordingtoInvestmentMinisterRosanRoeslani,thenewregulationswouldenablefullautomaticintegrationbetweentheOSSsystemand18othergovernmentministries.Thenumbersalsosuggestgrowingadoption.Asof8April2026,approximately15.8mn

BusinessIdentificationNumbers(NIBs)havebeenissuedintheOSS,with1.8mnoftheseNIBs(11.4%ofthetotal)issuedinjustthefirstfivemonthsfollowingtheimplementationofthenewregulations.[10]

Theregulationsalsointroduceimportantchangesforforeign-ownedcompanies(PT

PMA).Theminimumpaid-upcapitalforinvestmentwasloweredtoIDR2.5bn

(~USD150,000)fromIDR10bn(~USD600,000),a75%reduction(Figure7).Inaddition,thereisanewminimum12-monthcapitallock-uprequirementforcompanies;thiswaspreviouslynotregulated.Withdrawalsortransfersareprohibited,exceptforspecific

businesspurposes.TheminimuminvestmentperprojectremainsaboveIDR10bnperbusinessclassificationcode(“KBLI”)perprojectlocation,excludinglandandbuildings,withsectoralexceptionsapply,suchasforfoodandbeverages,wherethresholdsarecalculatedbasedonlocation.[11]

Nomura|SpecialReport27August2026

8

Fig.7:Indonesia:Newrulesfordirectinvestment

Oldregulation

(GRNo.5/2021and

BKPMReg3,4,5/2021)

Newregulations

(GRNo.28/2025andBKPMReg5/2025)

MinimumInvestmenttThreshold

>IDR10billionperproject

>IDR10billionperproject

Minimumissuedandpaidupcapital

IDR10billion

(~USD600,000)

IDR2.5billion

(~US$150,000)

Capitallock-up

Notspecified

12monthsminimum

Source:SSEKLawFirm,HBTLaw,NomuraGlobalEconomics

Fig.8:Indonesia:Totaltimetocompletetheentireentryprocessforforeigncompanies(2025)

Source:TheWorldBankBusinessReady(2025),NomuraGlobalEconomics

Inourview,thereductioninminimumpaid-upcapitaltoIDR2.5bnpercompanyshouldallowcompaniestodeploytheircapitalmoreefficientlyduringtheinitialstagesof

operations,reducingfinancialbarrierstoentry.ThesimplificationofOSSproceduresalsorepresentsregulatoryprogress.

However,inpractice,thecriticalquestoniswhethertheseimprovementscouldtranslateintosmootherprocesses.IntheWorldBank'sBusinessReady(B-Ready)2024report,itisstatedthat"InIndonesia,ittakes65daystoregisteranewforeigncompany,comparedtothreedaysinthemostefficienteconomies."12]Inresponsetothisfinding,InvestmentMinisterRosanRoeslanistatedthatthegovernmentwouldimproveitsperformance.Inthefollowingyear(2025),thenumberhasfallento34days,whichisasubstantial

improvementbutisstilllongerthanselectedpeers(Figure8).

ArecentstudybyWicaksonoetal.(2026)foundthattheimplementationoftheOSS

system(beforetheaboveregulatorychanges)facesmultiplechallengesthatcouldlimititseffectiveness.Theresearchdocumentedmisalignmentbetweenlocalregulations(Perda)withgovernmentregulationsandtechnicalministrypoliciesthatformtheOSSframework.Consequently,whenbusinessesapplyforpermitsthroughOSS,thereisariskthatthe

permitsissuedwillbeprocessedslowlybythelocalgovernmentduetoanincompatibilitytolocalregulations.Thestudyalsoidentifiedtechnicalandinfrastructurebarriers(i.e.,

uneveninternetconnectivity,frequentsystemdisruptions)andbureaucraticresistanceduetofearsofreducedauthorityinthelicensingprocess.

Theseimplementationgapswilllikelyremainakeyconcernforforeigninvestors.DespitetheOSSsystem'sintendedefficiencygains,foreigninvestorswouldlikelystillneedtovisitmultiplegovemmentofficesandagenciesinpersontosecurebusinesslicences.

Localcontentrequirements(LCR)couldstillpresentchallengesforFDI

NewrelaxationsintheLCRregulation

Localcontentrequirements(LCR),locallyknownasTingkatKomponenDalamNegeri

(TKDN),refertothepercentageofdomesticcontributionintheproductionofgoodsor

services,includingmaterials,laborandinputsthataresourcedwithinIndonesia.

AccordingtoastudybyCSIS(2022),Indonesia'sLCRpolicieswereprimarilyintendedtoreduceimports,withthemajorityofLCRappliedtogovernmentprocurementona

voluntarybasisbythecompanies.ThesectorsreceivingthehighestshareinLCR

regulationsareICTandns,energy,generalmanufacturing,automotive,electricvehiclesandrenewableenergy.LCRisalsoimportantforcompaniestoreceivefiscalincentives.Forexample,electricvehiclesproduction,whichmeetsanLCRlevelof40%mayqualifyforVATexemptionsin2026.13][14]

LCRalsoservesasacritical"non-tariffbarrier",suchthatcompanieswhichsell4G-LTEdevicestodomesticmarkets,includinghandphones,tabletsandlaptopsarerequiredto

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haveatleast35%LCR.[15]ThemostrecentcasewasthebanofApple’siPhone16salesinOctober2024asaresultofApple’sfailuretomeettheLCR.Thereweremultiple

discussionsbetweenthegovernmentandApple,andafterfourmonths,thefinal

resolutionwasreachedandaUSD320mninvestmentdealwassignedbetweenAppleandthegovernment,withAppleagreeingtosetupmanufacturingandR&Dfacilities.[16]

However,subsequently,aspartofthetradedealwiththeUS,IndonesiaagreedtoexempttheUSfromLCRrequirements,whichincludesApple.Accordingtosomeanalysts,this

couldcreateunfaircompetitionforthelargesmartphoneplayersthathaveinvested

largely,includingbuildinglocalfacilitiesinIndonesia(e.g.,Samsung,Xiaomi,Oppo,andVivo).[17]

InSeptember2025,theMinistryofIndustry(MOI)issuedanewregulation(Permenperin)No.35/2025concerningtheLCR,nullifyingRegulationNo.16/2011.Underthenew

regulations,theLCRiscalculatedusingthreemainweightedfactors(i.e.,directmaterials,directlaborandfactoryoverhead),arevisionfromthepreviousmethodcalculatedusingtheratiooflocalcontributioninproductcosts,whichwasmoredetailed(Figure9).

Withthischange,MinisterAgusGumiwangsaidthatthegovernmen