汇丰-人工智能与经济：全球影响力扩大之际需追踪的核心图表-AI and the economy：The key charts to track as the global impact grows-20260909

9September2026

AIandtheeconomy

Thekeychartstotrackastheglobalimpactgrows

Economics

Global

uAI’sroleinawiderangeofglobaleconomicdataisbuilding…

u…fromtradeandmanufacturingtothelabourmarket…

u…sowehighlightthekeydatapointstowatchforimplications

AIhasbecomeoneofthemostdominantthemesdrivingfinancialmarketsinrecentyears,buttheeconomicimpacthasbeenrelativelysmaller,atleastuntilrecently.Butnowwe’restartingtoseeamaterialimpactontheeconomicdata–inboththebuild-outphase,withstrongproductionandexportsofchipsfromthelikesofTaiwanand

KoreaandUSdatacentreconstruction,whileontheusageside,morefirmsareadoptingAI.Thenextwaveoftheimpactwillextendintothelabourmarketandproductivitydata.

Totrackwhat’shappeninginrealtime,webringtogetherthekeydataandreports

fromourcollectiveworkonAI’sreal-worldimpact,splitamongstthe‘buildout’side–lookingatsemiconductors,investmentindatacentres,electronicsmanufacturing,

andtradedata,andthe‘usage’side–whichlooksattheemergingimplicationsforlabourmarketsandproductivity.

It’sclearhowmanyoftheseindicatorshavetakenalegupin2026,withthe

productionandtradedataoutofmanyAsianeconomiesseeingrapidincreases.

Theselectionofdatawegetondatacentreconstructionacrosstheworldhaspickedup,too.Giventheannouncedcapexplansfromhyperscalersandthestill-low

corporateadoptionofAI,wewouldexpectthisstorytohavealotlongertorun.

Theimpactonthelabourmarketsofarremainsveryhardtoworkout.Anumberof

indicatorssuggestthatAI’sroleinemploymentisincreasing–withmorejobpostingssuggestingthatAIwillbeakeypartoftherole,andfirmsseeminglybeingmore

cautiousabouttheirbroaderhiringplans.Wagegrowthmayalsobebeingpinned

downbyworkersworriedabouttheirjobprospectsandwagebargainingpower.Butfornow,theseimpactsareasmuchspeculationastheyareevidentintheharddata

–thenumberoflayoffsattributedtoAImaymisrepresenttherealunderlyingcause,andfirmsmaybetrimminghiring,particularlyatthegraduatelevel,foranumberofmacroeconomicreasons.

Wemaybeseeingsomeemergingimpactsonproductivitygrowth.Firm-leveldata

suggeststhatthereisaclearpositiveproductivityimpactcomingthroughalready,

andwewouldexpectthattogrowasusageincreases.Butnationalaccountsdata

arenotsoclearcut–therearesomesignsofproductivitygrowthpickingupfornow,butnowhereclosetolevelsthatfirmsestimatearelikelyinthecomingyears.

AstheimpactofAIonmoreofoureconomicdataincreasesinthecomingyears,thechartsinthisreportwillbekeytotracktogaugethespeedanddegreeofthose

changes–bethatongrowth,thelabourmarketorinflation.

JamesPomeroy

GlobalEconomist

HSBCBankplc

james.pomeroy@+442079916714

MaitreyiDas

GlobalEconomist

HSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedmaitreyi.das@hsbc.co.in

+918067373155

BethanEllis

GlobalEconomist

HSBCBankplc

bethan.ellis@+442079916714

MarkMcDonald

HeadofAIandDataScience

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedmark.mcdonald@

+85222841371

ThomasDevlin

Analyst,DataScience

HSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.thomas.devlin@+12125250672

ShivaJoon,CFA

DataScientist

HSBCBankplc

shiva.joon@+442079911356

Disclosures&Disclaimer

ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.

Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplc

ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:

2

Economics●Global

9September2026

.

TrackingAI’seconomicimpact:keydatatowatch

Indexofkeycomponents

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

TheAIbuild-outcontinuestogathersteamin2026…

Globalsemisales

USdatacentreconstruction

Koreaelectronicexports

Taiwanelectronicexports

2020202120222023202420252026

Adoptionbysector(US)

…usageisgrowing,ledbytheUS,withtechandfinanceseeinghighadoptionrates…

60%

Manufacturing

81%

49%

Retail

73%

Hospitality

Technology&Media

42%

32%

43%

Finance&Insurance

ConstructionHealthCare

10

8

6

4

2

0

Jobmarket

…joblistingsmentionAImore,butthere’slittleevidenceit’sdrivingtheweakgraduatejobmarket…

ChatGTPlaunch

UK

Australia

Germany

US

Italy

France

USproductivitygrowthbysector

-5

…althoughsomefirmsgainproductivityorcostsavingsfromAI,thenational-levelevidenceislessclear(%,y-o-y)

1

15

Q120262025

0

5

0

Information

(durable)

Manufacturing

Insurance

Finance&

Wholesale

Warehouse

Transport&

BusinessServices

Professional&

(non-durable)

Manufacturing

Hospitality

Leisure&

Health

Education&

Government

Otherservices

Construction

Utilities

Retail

10

8

6

4

2

0

15

10

5

0

-5

Source:Macrobond,Indeed,RampAI,USBEA,HSBC

Economics●Global

9September2026

3

OurkeyreportsonAI’seconomicimpact

Gamechangers:ThemacroimpactofAIadoptiongoingexponential,

20April2026

uAsweenterthenextstageofAI'simpactontheeconomy…

u…welookathowthelabourmarketcouldbeaffected…

u…andripplethroughtheeconomyviaourninethemes

GlobalEconomicsQuarterly:Crosscurrents,

22June2026(seechapteronpage24)

uCapexandtradeimpactsoftheAIsurgeonGDPgrowtharesettoremainenormousinsomeplaces…

u…whileverylowAIusageamongfirmsacrossmostoftheworldmeansthereishugescopeforittorise…

u…whichmeanstheimpactonlabourmarketscouldacceleratetoo

AIandthelabourmarket:Whattheheadlinesaregettingwrong,

13July2026

uManyofthestudiesonAIexposureareskewedbythesamebiases…

u…tendingtooverstatetherisktowhite-collarjobs…

u…andunderstatetheextenttowhichAIcouldhelppeopledotheirjob,ratherthanreplacethem

IsAIalreadyimpactingemployment?:Somereasonsforworryinthelabourmarketdata,

14October2025

uAwideningrangeofAItoolsappearstobeimpactinggraduateandjuniorstaffrecruitment…

u…andposesdownsideriskstoemploymentinmoresectors…

u…meaningapossibleundercurrentofweaknessinlabourmarketstocome

Breakingthedata:ThebillionsofAIconsumersurplus,

9July2026

uWithfreeorcheapAItoolsreplacingsomeformsofexistingspending…

u…alargeconsumersurplusisemerging,withspendingdroppinginsomeareas…

u…thatcouldfindahomeinentertainment,clothingandeatingout

CanAIupdateequitymodels?:TestingAItoolsinfinancialanalysis,

13April2026

uInourlatestexperiment,weaskedleadingAImodelstoupdateequitymodelswithnewdatafromcompanyfilings

uIntheory,thisexerciseshouldbeinAI's"sweetspot";inpractice,modelswerestrongatcertainelements…

u…buterrorselsewheremeanttheyremain,fornow,ausefulassistanttohumananalysts,ratherthananautonomoustool

TradewithoutAI:Whathappensiftheboomfades?,

20July2026

uTheAIboomisdrivingglobaltradegrowth,whilenon-techexportgrowthismuchsofter

uRobustAIinvestmentshouldcontinuetosupporttradeevenifmomentumslows…

u…butiftheAIcyclecools,sotoomighttradegrowth

Economics●Global

9September2026

4

ThegrowingimpactofAI

uAI’sroleinmoreglobaleconomicdataisbuilding…

u…fromtradeandmanufacturingtothelabourmarket…

u…sowehighlightthekeydatapointstowatchforimplications

Thekeydatatotrack

AstheimpactofAIoneconomicdatabuilds,therearemanykeyvariablesthatwewanttotracktogetahandleonthemagnitude.ThecoreofthisdataisintermsofthebuildoutoftheAI

ecosystem,suchaselectronics-basedindicators,includingchipproductionandsales,data

centreconstructionorAI-relatedtradeflows–allofwhichcontinuetogofromstrengthto

strength.Ontheusageside,dataarealotmoreembryonic,butwehaveagrowingsetofdatapointsonpersonalandprofessionalusageandsomeofthespilloversintothelabourmarkets

andproductivity,fromtraditionalmacrodata,whatcompaniesaresayinginearningscallsandagrowinglistofsurveys.

Overthenextfewpages,wehighlightthekeydatathatbothgiveasenseofwherewearein

theAIjourneyfromaneconomicimpactperspective,aswellasbeingkeyvariableswewillneedtofollowinthecomingquarterstogetahandleonthespeedandscaleoftheeconomicimpact.

Fornow,theevidenceismuchclearerononesideoftheledgerthantheother.The‘buildout’phaseishavingamaterialimpactongrowthintheAIleaders–theUS,KoreaandJapan–weareseeingsignsofthispickingupelsewhere,too–forexampleSweden’simportsofdata

processingmachineshavequadrupledoverthepastyear,andwe’reseeingsignsofsimilar

datapickingupinothereconomiesinEuropethathavelaggedinthisstory.Giventhepipelineforcapexfromthehyperscalers(see:GlobalTechnology,SustainableCSPcapextosupportAItrendthroughFY28e,12August2026)andhowlowcorporateusageofAItoolsstillis,these

trendshavealongwaytorunstill,justtosupplycurrentdemand.

Tosummarisehowthe‘buildout’phaseisgoing,wehaveproducedasimpleindexthattracksthekeydataonthisfront.Thisindexusesasimpleaverageofstandardizedz-scoresfora

selectnumberofourindicatorsthatarebothrelevantandhavetimelytimeseriesofdata.

1.Variablesinouraggregateindex

VariableTransformationSource

Taiwanelectronicsexports%YrTaiwanMinistryofFinance

Koreaelectronicsexports%YrKoreaCustomsService

USdatacentrespending%YrUSCensusBureau

Globalsemiconductorsales%YrSemiconductorIndustryAssociationSource:HSBC

Wecanseeinthisdatathatmanyofthesevariableshavepickeduppacesharplyin2026.

Interestingly,2023sawanumberofthesevariableswobble,butsincethemiddleoflastyearwehaveseensharpincreasesinelectronicsexportsfromTaiwanandKorea,alongsidethe

broaderglobalsemiconductorcycle.

Economics●Global

9September2026

5

2.TheAIbuildouthasrampedupin2026…

Source:Macrobond,HSBC

3.…withmanymetricspickingupstrongly

Source:Macrobond

Ontheusageside,thingsarehardertotrack.Firstly,dataonAI-relatedhiringandlayoffdecisions

arehardtodisentanglefromthebroaderdata:firmsmaysimplyuseAIasareasontojustifybroaderlayoffsforarangeofmacroeconomicorbusiness-specificreasons,andsomeoftheotherimpacts–suchasslowerwagegrowthorhiringplans–havemultipledrivers.Productivity,too,isanimperfectmeasureatthisjuncture,giventhestill-lowadoptionratesbymanyfirms,withawide-rangingpaperfromFebruary202

61

suggestingthatfirmsarenotseeingmanymaterialproductivitygainsyetfromAI,butexpect~1.4%increasesperyearoverthenextthreeyearsasthatinvestmentpaysdividends.

Basedonsurveydata,smallerfirmsappeartobelaggingintermsofuptake,withAItoolsstill

beingtooexpensiveorfirmslackingtheexpertisetoworkwiththetoolsthatareavailable.LargerfirmsareusingAImore,butarebroadlystillworkingoutthebestusecasesandefficientwaysofusingtokens.Asbothofthesethingsevolve,theimpactonthelabourmarketandcorporate

productivitywillbecomemoreapparent,evenifsomeofthelabourmarketshocksmaybeless

extremethansomeheadlinessuggest(see:

AIandthelabourmarket:Whattheheadlinesare

gettingwrong,

13July2026)andtheproductivityimpactmaybeveryhardtogaugeinrealtime(see

Gamechangers:ThemacroimpactofAIadoptiongoingexponential,

20April2026).Asa

result,weshowcaseawiderangeoftheseindicatorsindividuallyoverthecomingpages.

4.FirmsexpectaproductivityboostfromAIof~1.4%peryear…

%

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Businesssurveys:averageexpectedimpactofAIonproductivity,next3years

AllUSUKGermanyAustralia

%

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Source:Yotzovetal.,FirmDataonAI.DatacollectedNovember2025-January

2026.Tocalculateaverageimpacts,largeposiitve/negativeimpactstreatedas+/-

7.5%,smallpositive/negativeimpactstreatedas+/-2.5.

5.…butnotmuchofadropinhiring,potentially

%

Businesssurveys:averageexpectedimpactofAIonemployment,next3years

%

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-0.6

-0.8

-0.8

-1.0

-1.0

-1.2

-1.2

-1.4

AllUSUKGermanyAustralia

-1.4

Source:Yotzovetal.,FirmDataonAI.DatacollectedNovember2025-January2026.

1IvanYotzov,JoseMariaBarrero,NicholasBloom,PhilipBunn,StevenJ.Davis,KevinM.Foster,AaronJalca,BrentH.Meyer,PaulMizen,MichaelA.Navarrete,PawelSmietanka,GregoryThwaites,andBenZheWang,"FirmDataonAI,"NBERWorkingPaper34836(2026)

Economics●Global

9September2026

6

Electronicsproductionandexports

Semiconductordemandremainsstrong…

…drivenbyUShyperscalers…

…creatingveryconcentratedareasofeconomicgrowth

6.Industrialproductiongrowthfor

semiconductorsremainsverystrong…

Source:MacrobondNote:3monthmovingaverage

8.TheUSisthetopsourceforTaiwaneseexportorders…

Source:Macrobond

10.SemiconductorexportshaveincreasedsharplyinKorea…

Source:Macrobond

7.…asstrongdemandandpriceriseshaveseenexportvaluessurge

Source:MacrobondNote:ReferstoHS8541and8542

9.…asAIenablingimportsbecomeaneven-biggershareoftotalimports

%ShareofAI-enablingimportswithin%

3131

2828

2525

2222

1919

1616

1313

101020222023202420252026

totalUSimports

Source:Macrobond.Note:Includes1056-digitHScodesoutlinedbyWTOinWorldTradeReport2025

11.…whileinTaiwan,ADPmachineshaveincreasedsharply

Source:Macrobond

Economics●Global

9September2026

7

TheAIinfrastructure

12.Memorychips,dominatedbyKorea,haveseenthebiggestpricerises

HK&mainlandChina

TaiwanKorea

SingaporeMalaysia

US

Japan

PhilippinesGermanyThailand

IrelandFrance

IsraelMexico

CzechRepublicItaly

Belgium

Netherlands

AustriaUK

uKoreaandTaiwangetthemostattention,but

differenteconomiesarecrucialfordifferenttypesofchips–andJapanisabigplayerinsemiconductormanufacturingequipment

Processors:CPUs/GPUs,performsoperations

Memory:Neededtostoredata

Amplifier:Boostandregulateelectricalsignalstoallowdatatotravel

Other:Rangeofspecialisedchipsincluding

4.43.66.118.34.112.820.20.02.90.10.20.30.10.20.20.10.119.51.60.6

0.96.515.27.51.810.227.90.05.60.60.03.50.10.00.81.40.10.20.20.9

microcontrollers,sensorchips,I/Ochips,amongothers

Source:Macrobond,HSBCNote:*CalculatedusingHongKongtradedata;referstovalueindexdividedbyvolumeindex

13.Shareoftotalglobalexportsbychiptypeormanufacturingequipment

%total

Semiconductormanufacturing

Economy

Processors

Memory

Amplifiers

OtherEIC

equipment

Chemicalsforuse

inelectronics

24.0

16.6

28.1

21.1

6.2

9.7

0.6

35.3

8.0

29.5

0.7

2.6

16.9

5.4

16.1

8.5

11.4

2.6

18.5

6.2

7.6

0.8

5.9

2.9

0.6

4.4

0.8

3.7

2.0

0.9

5.4

3.7

2.0

0.3

2.9

2.2

0.5

0.2

0.4

1.7

1.8

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.4

0.2

0.6

1.0

0.8

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.5

0.7

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

Source:ITCtrademap,HSBCNote:Datareferto2025.WehavegroupedmainlandChinaandHongKong.EICreferstoElectronicIntegratedCircuits

8

HSBC

Economics·Global

9September2026

Globaldistributionofdatacentrebuild-out

14.Livedatacentrecapacityisrelativelywelldistributedamongmajoreconomies...

Datacentreslivecapacity

15buttheUSdominatesongoingconstruction...

Datacentrescapacityunderconstruction

16whileMalaysia,Portugal,andtheMiddleEast,havesizeablepipelineambitions

Datacentresothercapacityinpipeline

Souroe:HSBC,BNEFNote:SizeofbubbledenotesrelativecapacityinMW

Economics●Global

9September2026

9

Build-out:TheUS

18.…thoughithasliftedimportsfromothereconomies,suchasMexico…

TheUSdatacentrebuild-outhasbenefittedMexico…

17.TheUSbuild-outhashappenedwell-aheadofelsewhereintheworld…

Source:MacrobondNote:Differencesinthedatamayarisefromreportingtimings

Source:Macrobond,StanfordInstituteforHuman-CenteredArtificialIntelligence

Note:EUdatapre-2020includetheUK

20.…withconstructiondatacontinuingtogrowrapidly

…asinvestmentcontinuestotravelupward…

19.…asitscramblesfordatacentresupplies…

Source:Macrobond

Source:Macrobond

…withhyperscalersinthedrivingseat

21.Evenifataslowerpace,hyperscalerinvestmentshouldcontinuetogrowthrough2028

USDtrnProjectedhyperscalercapexUSDtrn

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

2025

2026

2027

2028

Alphabet

Amazon

MicrosoftMeta

Oracle

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Source:HSBCequityresearch

10

Economics●Global

9September2026

.

Build-out:ASEAN

22.DifferentASEANeconomiesareindifferentstagesoftheirbuild-out

%GDPFDIininformationandcommunication%GDP

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

201620182020202220242026

IndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippines ThailandVietnam

u

u

u

u

ASEANhasquicklyemerged–alongsideTaiwan,

Korea,mainlandChina,andtheUS-asoneofthe

regionsseeingthegreatesteconomicimpactfromAI

But,thoughASEANisoftenspokenofcollectively,theAIstorydiffershugelyacrosstheseeconomies

InvestmentishighlyconcentratedinMalaysia;Malaysiaalsoranksnearthetopintermsoftheglobaldatacentrepipeline

MuchoftheFDIcomesfromSingapore-basedhyperscalers,withdatacentreconstruction

concentratedinJohor(MY-SGborderregion)

Source:CEIC,HSBCNote:VietnamFDIdataisnewregisteredcapital.ForThailand,‘otherFDI’wasusedasanestimateforthiscategoryduetodatalimitations

23.Theregioncanbeseparatedintotwobroadgroups:thosewithdatacentresandwithout

USDbnNettradeinelectronicsUSDbn

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

Matureeconomies

Build-outeconomies

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

201620182020202220242026SingaporeMalaysiaThailand PhilippinesIndonesia

u

u

u

Giventhediversity,ourASEANeconomicsteamseparatetheregion,withrespecttodatacentres,into‘mature’economies(MalaisiaandSingapore)‘build-out’economies(Thailand,Philippines,

Indonesia)

The‘mature’economiesdominatepresent

computingcapacities,meaningamorefavourablenettradeposition

The‘build-out’economieshaveseenastructuralshiftintheirtradebalanceswhilehardwareis

broughtintoequipthenewdatacentres

24.Eventually,thedatacentrebuild-outshouldtranslatetoaboomincomputerservicesexports

%GDPNettradeincomputerservices%GDP

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

0.30.20.10.0-0.1-0.2

-0.3

2010201520202025

IndonesiaMalaysiaThailand

u

u

u

Growthduringtheinitialbuild-outphaseismorelimited,duetoimport-dependence

Oncecapacitystartstocomeonline,though,thistradeandcurrentaccountpositionwillturnmorefavourable,andthe‘AIdeficit’shouldfade

Malaysia,forinstance,sawadeteriorationinits

tradebalanceduringitsbuild-outboom–butisnowseeingahugesurgeinitscomputerservicesexportsin2026sofar.

Source:CEIC,HSBC

FormoredetailontheASEANdatacentrebuildout,pleaseseethelatest

ASEANperspectives

(31August2026)

Economics●Global

9September2026

11

AIisaglobalstory,evenifmoreconcentratedinAsiaandtheUS…

…butEuropehasfinally

startedseeingsomeimpacts

Othereconomiesarepickingupfromalowbase

Build-out:Therestoftheworld

26.…andPMIdatasuggestnoslowdowninmomentum

25.Globally,AIdominatesgreenfieldinvestment…

USDbnGlobalgreenfieldinvestmentUSDbninstrategicsectors

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

202020212022202320242025

OtherstrategicsectorsSemiconductorsAIinfrastructureandrelated

Source:Macrobond

Source:UNCTAD

28.…andAI-relatedstrengthisafactorinourrecenteurozoneGDPupgrade

27.SomepartsofEuropeareseeingasuddenuptickindatacentrebuild-out-relatedimports…

Source:Macrobond

Source:Macrobond

29.HigherimportsfromTaiwancanindicatefasterbuild-outs,withAsianeconomies

seeinghighnumbersduetosupplychainlinkages,butmanyeconomiesstillfarbehind

Source:Macrobond,HSBC

12

TheUSdominatesglobalLLMusage

Anthropichasseenbiggainsamongcorporates

Techandfinancecontinuetoleadadoption,andspending

Usagecontinuestopickup

30.TheUSandIndiatoppersonalAIusage,basedonAnthropicdata

Source:Anthropic,Macrobond.Note:JustmeasuresClaudeusage

32.…asusernumberssharplyincreasedin2025,butgrowthhaslevelledoff…

MillionChatGPTglobalmonthlyactiveusers

andpenetrationrate

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Jun-24Dec-24Jun-25Dec-25Jun-26Level%oftotalpopulation(RHS)

Source:FirstPageSage

34.TechandfinanceareseeingthehighestadoptionratesintheUS…

%

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Source:RampAI

31.ChatGPTdominatesmarketshare,buthasseenitssharedwindle…

%MarketshareforLLMmodels%

100

80

60

40

20

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

Apr-26

May-26

Jun-26

Jul-26

ChatGPTGeminiClaudeOther

Source:AIMultiple

33.…whileinthecorporateworld,Claudeisnowking

Source:RampAI

35.…alongwith,naturally,thehighestspendperhead

Source:RampAI

13

Manysectorsarelimitedtofreetools

Shadowusagecouldbeunderstatingadoption

Ourearningscallanalysissuggestsapick-upin

adoptionforEurope

Corporateusagevariesbyfirmsize

36.Manyfirmsarestickingtofree-to-usesoftwareinsteadofpaidsubscriptionsintheUK

%UKbusinesssurvey:typesofAIadoption%

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Manufacturing

Construction

Wholesale/

retail

Usingfree-to-usesoftwareDevelopedin-house

Hospitality

Info/comms

Professional

scientific/

technical

Admin/support

Throughpurchaseofexternalsoftwareorready-to-useOutsourcedtoexternalprovidersorthirdparties

38.…thoughit’spossibletheremaybe‘shadow’AIuseatplay

%UK:AIusage%

Source:ONS

37.SmallerfirmsarelaggingonAIadoptionplansintheUS…

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

EmployeesusingAIforBusinessesusingAIworkoreducation

Source:Macrobond,ONS

Source:USCensusBureau,MacrobondNote:PlanningtostartusingAIcalculatedbysubtractingshareusingAIfromshareexpectingtobeusingAIinsixmonths

39.GlobalearningscalldatashowarapidpickupinAIusageacrossEurope

%EarningscallAIadoptionbyeconomy%

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

US

Mainland

China*

Europe

UK

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

Japan

DMAsia

EMAsia

EMEMEA

LatAm

2023-Q12023-Q22023-Q32023-Q42024-Q12024-Q22024-Q32024-Q4

2025-Q12025-Q22025-Q32025-Q42026-Q12026-Q2

Source:HSBCDataScienceNote:OuranalysismaypotentiallyoverstatemainlandChina’sfigureduetocoveragelimitationsandourrelianceonEnglish-languageearningscalltranscriptsinthedatabase

14

Economics●Global

9September2026

.

Labourmarket:lowhire,notmuchfire

AIisbecomingmorerelevantinthelabourmarket…

…likelyplayingaroleinlowhiringandconfidence

levels…

…thoughit’sstillunclear

howmuchofthisisduetoAI

40.IndeeddatashowabigriseintheroleofAIinthejobmarket

Source:Macrobond,Indeed

42.…andPMIdatasuggestabroadlyweakerglobalhiringenvironment…

Source:S&PGlobal,Macrobond

44.However,layoffsremainneartypicalhistoriclevels(excl.governmentcuts)…

Source:Macrobond,Challenger

41.GraduateunemploymenthasbeencitedasanexampleoftheAIimpact…

Source:NYFed,Macrobond

43.…whilethelowquitsratemayreflectsubduedconfidenceamongUSworkers

Source:USBLS,Macrobond

45.…andweakeningingraduate

employmentappearstopredateAI

Source:Macrobond,