mckinsey -汽车消费者洞察2026 价值是罗盘消费者引领方向 Auto Consumer Insights 2026 Value is the compass. Consumers set the pace

Mcsey

&company

GreaterChina

Valueisthecompass.Consumersset

thepace.

AutoConsumerInsights2026

September2026

Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.1

McKinseyChinaAutoConsumerSurvey:Adecadeofinsights

Aboutthereport

ThisreportpresentsdatafromMcKinsey’stenthChinaAutoConsumerSurvey,whichtracksthebehaviorandpreferencesofChineseautoconsumers.

—Thesurveywasconductedinthefirstquarterof

2026usingonlinesampling,with2,826respondentscompletingthefullsurvey.

—Itcovered19majorcitiesacrossChina,spanningtier-1,tier-2,tier-3,andtier-4cities,andtheNorth,Northeast,East,CentralandSouth,Southwest,andNorthwest

regions.

—Respondentswerecategorizedbyage,income,car-purchasingexperience,andcurrentvehiclebrandandtype.Thereportanalyzesconsumerattitudes,brandpreferences,purchasinghabits,andcarexperienceindepth.

Authors

AlexanderWillDanielBirke

MingyuGuanThomasFangTonyZhou

2Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.

Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.3

Foreword

Overthepastyear,debateaboutChina’sautomotivemarkethasgrownincreasinglyintenseandpolarized.Howmuchfurthercanthemarketgrow?Isdemandsustainableoverthelongterm?Canelectrificationmaintainmomentumoncepurchasetaxincentivesarephasedout?Andaretoday’sinvestmentsinvehicleintelligenceashort-livedboomorthestartofalong-termshift?

Againstthisbackdrop,webelieveitistimetotakeastepbackandadoptamoremeasuredviewgroundedinindustryfundamentals.

McKinseyhaspublishedChinaAutoConsumerInsightssince2016toprovideaclearandobjectiveperspectiveontheautomarket.Followingthe

2025survey

,1wearereleasingourtenthanniversaryspecialedition,whichaimstoanswerthreefundamentalquestions:

—Whatforcesaredrivingthemarket?

—Hasthemarketstructuremateriallychanged?

—Howareconsumers—theultimateforcebehindeveryshiftinChina’sautomarket—thinkingandmakingdecisions?

ThisreportaddressesthesequestionsandoutlinesacleartrajectoryforChina’sautoindustryoverthecomingdecade.

China’sautomarketfundamentals:Stable,yetbounded

Coreindicatorssuchasreplacementcycles,vehicleownership,andconsumerwillingnesstopurchasesuggestthatautodemandremainsstronginChina.Newcarsalesbegantodeclineinthesecondhalfof2025andcontinuedtosoftenintothefirstquarterof2026,butannualpassengervehiclesalesareexpectedtoremainatabout24millionunitsinthemedium-to

long-term.

Lookingbackonthepastdecade,China’snewcarsaleshaveremainedrelativelyhigh

despitemultipleshocks,asignofstrongmarketresilience.Comparedwithotherdevelopingcountries,Chinaleadsinper-capitanewcarsales.Morethan80percentofyoungand

middle-agedmenholdadriver’slicense,approachinglevelsintheUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates.Carownershipper1,000licenseddrivershasreached609,closetosome

developedmarkets,andabout30percentofcar-owninghouseholdsnowownmultiplevehicles—alsonearingmature-marketlevels.

However,socioculturalandinfrastructureconstraintsmeanthatanysteady-stateannualsalesforecastsignificantlyabove24millionunitswouldrequireaggressivesocialand

demographicassumptions.AutodemandinChinahasnotbeenfullytappedout,butitiscappedbydemographicandsocialstructures.Short-termfluctuationsmaybeshapedbypoliciesandindustrycycles,butthemedium-tolong-termtrajectoryremainsstructurallyconstrained.

1DanielBirke,MingyuGuan,ThomasFang,andTonyZhou,“ChinaAutoConsumerInsights2025:Gainingmomentum,”McKinsey,September30,2025.

4Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.

Priceversusvalue:Technologicalinnovationisbackinthespotlight

RecentpricecompetitioninChina’sautomarkethascontinuedtopushvehiclepricesdown.Thishaserodedindustryprofitabilityandreinforcedthebeliefamongconsumersthatdelayingpurchases

willyieldabetterdeal—promptingmanytopostponebuyingdecisions.Amongrespondentswho

purchasedavehicleinthepastyear,theshareholdinganegativeviewofpricecompetitionwasaboutsixpercentagepointshigherthantheshareholdingapositiveview.Pricecompetition,inotherwords,isbecominglesseffectiveatstimulatingdemandandincreasinglycorrosivetoconsumerconfidence.

Atthesametime,improvementsintechnology-drivenexperiencesareemergingasacorefactorinpurchasedecisions.Inamarketwheresupply-sidecapabilitiesareadvancingrapidly,consumerscontinuetotradeup,butnolongersimplybyspendingmore.Systematicimprovementsinuser

experiencehavebecomeameaningfulandsufficientformofupgradeintheirownright.

Afundamentalreshapingofbrandperception

Inthisyear’ssurvey,“brand”climbedinimportanceasakeybuyingfactor(KBF)forelectricvehicles(EVs),movingfromfifthplaceinpreviousyearstosecond,justbehind“rangeandchargingtime.”2

Thissupportsourlong-standingviewthataselectrificationtechnologiesmatureandperformance

differencesacrossoriginalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs)narrowonindicatorssuchasrange,

chargingefficiency,andbatteryperformance,brandwillmatterasmuchtoEVconsumersasitalreadydoesintheinternalcombustionengine(ICE)market.

OnceEVproductcompetitivenessclearsthebaselineperformancethreshold,brandscanagainactas

“complexitycompressors,”helpingconsumersmakequickdecisionsinanincreasinglycomplexmarket.Butbrandvalueisnolongerdrivenprimarilybyheritageorcountryoforigin.ItisincreasinglyanchoredinanOEM’sabilitytoconsistentlydeliveronitstechnologypromisesandsustainlong-termcredibility.

Thisshiftisacceleratingdivergenceacrossbrands.OEMswithclearbrandpositioningandstrong

technologicalcapabilitiesarelikelytosecuremorestablemarketpositions,whilethosewithoutadistinctbrandidentitymayfaceincreasingchallenges.

Improvedpublicchargingexperiencemakesbatteryelectricvehiclesthepreferredchoice

Chineseconsumers’confidenceinbatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)reboundedin2026,drivenprimarilybytheacceleratedrolloutofcharginginfrastructureandmarkedimprovementsinexpresswaycharging.Mostrespondentsexpectpublicchargingtomatchtheconvenienceofrefuelingby2033.

Againstthisbackdrop,BEVshavebecomeconsumers’preferredchoicefortheirnextvehicle.Plug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs)andrange-extendedelectricvehicles(REEVs)remainimportanttran-sitionaloptions,buttheirappealrelativetoBEVsisexpectedtodiminishgraduallyaspublicchargingnetworksexpandandimproveinquality.

2Unlessotherwisespecified,datainthisreportrefertoresultsfromtheMcKinseyChinaAutoConsumerSurvey2026.

Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.5

Advanceddriver-assistancesystemsandAIbecometruemust-havefeatures

Thisyear’ssurveyshowsthatadvanceddriver-assistancesystems(ADAS)arenolongerjustanice-to-havefeature;theyarenowembeddedacrossthefullpurchasingjourney—frompre-purchaseresearchandtrade-offsduringthepurchasedecisiontoongoinguseandover-the-air(OTA)updates.ConsumersincreasinglyseeadvancedADASasessential.

Atthesametime,consumersareincreasinglyeagerfor“AIagentsonwheels,”with

expectationsrisingsharplyfornext-generationAIinteractionsthatcanseamlesslyspan

tasks,scenarios,andoccupants.Competitioninvehicleintelligenceisshiftingfrom

superficialfeaturestackingtowarddeeplyintegratedsystemexperiences—acapabilitythatisbecomingcentraltohowOEMscaptureconsumermindshare.

AconsumerlensonthenextdecadeofChina’sautomarket

Consumersaresettingthetrendsinthismarket,notjustrespondingtothem.TheyrepresentoneofthemostimportantandrationalforcesdrivingthetransformationofChina’sauto

market.Theybasetheirpurchasingdecisionsonvehiclereplacementcyclesandprice

competition,whilealsoholdingclearexpectationsaboutbrandchoice,electrificationand

chargingexperience,intelligentdriving,andAIcapability.Asconsumersreshapethemarket,understandinghowtheythinkisoftenmorevaluablethaninterpretingshort-termdata.

Thisreportaimstohelpreadersreanchortheirunderstandinginkeyfactsamidcomplex

debate,returntomarketfundamentalsandconsumerinsight,andformclearer,morerobustviewsonhowChina’sautomarketcouldevolveoverthenextdecade.

6Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.

Short-termvolatilityversuslong-termequilibrium:ThestructuralboundariesofChina’ssteady-stateautodemand

Keyinsight:China’sautodemandhasnotbeenexhausted,butitslong-termrangeisanchoredbydemographicandsocialstructures.

Themarketenvironmentremainshighlydynamic,shapedbyshiftingpolicy,heightenedpricevolatility,andswingsinconsumersentiment.Butitsfoundationrestsonmorestable,harder-to-disruptstructuralfactors,includingreplacementcycles,purchasingpower,thesizeofthelicensed-driverpopulation,vehiclepenetration,andparkingconditions.WebelieveChina’s

autodemandcouldcontinuetofluctuatewithinarangedefinedbythesedemographicand

socialstructures.Short-termvolatilityisinevitable,butlong-termequilibriumhasidentifiableboundariesandstructuralanchors.

1.China’sautomarketremainsresilient;theshort-termsalesdeclinedoesnotsignalacollapseindemandw

China’snewcarsaleshavealreadysurpassedpre-COVID-19levels,reachingroughly110

percentof2019volumesby2025(Exhibit1).Mostmajordevelopedmarkets,bycontrast,

haveyettofullyrecover,highlightingnotonlytheresilienceofChina’sautomarketbutalsoitsstrongerunderlyingcapacityforself-sustainedrecovery.

Exhibit1

China’sautomarketshowsremarkableresilience,outpacingitscounterpartsinmajordevelopedeconomies.

Newcarsalesrelativetosalesin2019,Chinavstopdevelopedcountries,2023–25,index(2019=100)

115

110

105

100Pre-COVID-19benchmark

95

90

85

80

75

China

Canada

SouthKorea

US

SpainJapanUK

Italy

Germany

France

70

202320242025

Source:ChinaNewCarInsuranceRegistrationDatabase;S&PGlobal

McKinsey&Company

Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.7

8Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.

Chinahasbecomethemostcriticaldriverofglobalpassengervehicledemand,with

incrementalsalesaccountingforroughlyone-thirdofglobalgrowthfrom2019to2025

(Exhibit2).WithoutChina,theglobalmarketwouldlikelynothavedeliverednetgrowth,a

signthatChinaisnotonlytheworld’slargestsingleautomarket,butalsoacorestabilizerofsentimentandgrowthresilienceacrosstheglobalindustry.

Exhibit2

Chinawasthetopcontributortoglobalcarsalesgrowthfrom2019to2025,accountingforone-thirdofthetotalglobalincrease.

Breakdownofglobalpassengervehiclesales,2019–25,millionunits

6.9

2.2

–5.0

1.9

Othereconomieswithsalesgrowth

Economieswithsalesdecline

Globalgrossgrowth

Globalnetgrowth

China

4.7

Source:ChinaNewCarInsuranceRegistrationDatabase;S&PGlobal

McKinsey&Company

Sincethesecondhalfof2025,China’sautomarkethasexperiencedvolatility,withsales

moderatingfromthehighsof2024(Exhibit3).Thisshiftstemslargelyfromtwoforces:the

phasingoutoftrade-inincentivesacrossmultipleregionsstartingfromthesecondhalfof

2025;andthehighsalesbaselinesetin2024—thestrongestyearsinceCOVID-19andthe

second-highestonrecord.GivenChina’spivotalroleintheglobalmarket,understandingbothitsshort-termvolatilityandlong-termequilibriumisessential.

Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.9

Exhibit3

TheChinesepassengervehiclesectorhasbeennavigatingchallengingheadwindssincethefourthquarterof2025.

Chinapassengervehiclesalesvolumebyquarter,millionunits

Yearonyearchan

Trade-in

subsidies

graduallyphasedoutinvarious

provinces/citiessincethesecondhalfof2025,

resultinginsalesdeclineinthe

fourthquarter

2024totalsales:23.3million

7.8%yearonyear

2nd-bestsalesrecordinhistory1

7.4

2025totalsales:23.2million

–0.2%yearonyear

3rd-bestsalesrecordinhistory1

6.4

4.2

6.15.7

5.0

5.9

4.95.0

Q1

2024

ge,%16.5

2026YTD

(Mar)

–16.8

Q4

2025

–13.6

Q2

2025

13.2

Q3

2025

3.2

Q1

2025

2.2

Q3

2024

5.0

Q4

2024

15.5

Q2

2024

–5.5

Note:Figuresmaynotsum,becauseofrounding.

1Bestsalesrecordinhistorytookplacein2017,with23.4millionunitsofdomesticsalesvolume.

Source:ChinaNewCarInsuranceRegistrationDatabase

McKinsey&Company

2.Underlyingdemandfundamentals:Strongrepurchaseintent,alargelicensed-driverpopulation,andrisingpurchasingpower

Inamarketofthisscaleandresilience,demandisdrivenbyseveralfactors,including:

(1)Purchaseintentrisessharplyasvehiclesapproachthereplacementwindow

China’sautomarkethasshiftedfromonedominatedbyfirst-timebuyerstooneincreasinglydrivenbyreplacementdemand.In2016,first-timebuyersaccountedfornearly70percentofconsumers,butby2022,thatsharehadfallentoroughly30percent.

3

ReplacementdemandfromexistingcarownerswillbecriticaltoChina’sautomarketoverthenextdecade.

Oursurveyshowsthatasvehiclesageintothetypicalreplacementwindow,intenttoreplacerisessignificantlyamongChineseconsumers(Exhibit4).Onceavehicleageexceedsfive

years,replacementactivityacceleratesmarkedly:

—Asvehicleageincreasesfromthreetosixyears,theshareofconsumersplanningapurchasewithinthenextyearrisessignificantly.

3ZhouLijun,GaoYing,andBenyaShi,Multi-carfamilies:Anewblueoceanintheeraofexistingstock,YicheResearchInstitute,August28,2023.

10Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.

—Byseventonineyears,mostownersareactivelyconsideringreplacement;onlyasmallminoritychoosetodelay.

Thesefindingssuggestthatreplacementbehaviorcontinuestotrackthevehicleusagecycle,largelyunaffectedbyshort-termmarketvolatilityormacroeconomicuncertainty.

Exhibit4

Chineseconsumersshowstrongpurchaseintenttobuytheirnextcarwhenenteringthereplacementwindow.

Consumers’nextvehicleplanbyageofcurrentvehicle,1%ofrespondents2

2

3

8

18

74

4

Replacementwindow

20

28

52

4

9

11

After36months

97

96

Withinnext

13–36months

89

85

Withinnext

12months

42

30

28

3years4years5years6years7years8years≥9years

Ageofcurrentcar

1Question:Whenwillyoubuyyournextvehicle?

2Respondentswhoboughtacarintheprevious3yearsormore.

Source:McKinseyChinaAutoConsumerSurvey2026

McKinsey&Company

(2)Cornerstonesofsustainedgrowth:Anexpandinglicensed-driverbaseandrisingpurchasingpower

China’slicensed-driverpopulationandpassengervehicleownershiphavebothexpanded

steadilyinrecentyears,providingimportantsupportforautodemand(Exhibit5).From2019to2025,thelicensed-driverpopulationgrewfromabout400milliontoabout525million,withanaverageannualincreaseofroughly20million,thoughthepacehasslowedyearbyyear.

Vehicleownershipamonglicenseddrivershascontinuedtorise,withpassengervehicleparcper1,000licenseddriversincreasingfrom560to609since2019.Together,theexpandingdriverbaseandrisingvehiclepenetrationprovidetwopowerfulstructuralandlong-term

driversofdemandinChina’sautomarket.

Exhibit5

Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.11

ThenumberoflicenseddriversandthecarparchaveexpandedsteadilyinChinaoverthepastdecade.

Chinalicense-holderpopulationandvehiclepenetration,2019–25

Netadditionoflicenseholders,millionpeople

License-holder

population,millionpeople

CAGR:–6.3%

20

464

28

397

26

444

21

418

22

486

20

506

19

525

Car

licen

parcper1,000CAGR:+1.4%

seddrivers560573581593601609609

2019202020212022202320242025

Source:ChinaMinistryofPublicSecurity;NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina

McKinsey&Company

Chinesehouseholds’long-termpurchasingpowerisalsostrengthening.Astheeconomy

andincomesgrow,urbanhouseholdsaremovingintohigherincomebrackets(Exhibit6).

By2035,mid-to-highandhigh-incomehouseholdsareexpectedtomakeuproughly70

percentofallurbanhouseholds—asharpincreasefrom2020.Vehiclepurchasingpower,inotherwords,isimprovingacrosstheboard:acarpurchaseisshiftingfromamajorexpenserequiringtrade-offswithotherspendingtoamoreaffordable,manageableconsumption

choice.Thistrendexplainsthepost-COVID-19resilienceofChina’sautomarketandprovidesacriticaleconomicfoundationforastable,long-termdemandequilibrium.

Exhibit6

12Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.

Theupper-middleclasscouldrepresentabout70percentofChineseurbanhouseholdsby2035.

Annualhouseholdincome,RMB,using2020pricesasabenchmark

Urbanhouseholdsbyincome,millions

2030

2025

2020

Estimated

2035

Estimated

Highincome

A邗uent(>345,000)

10

19

29

48

Upper-middleincome

Massa邗uent

(230,000–345,000)

Upperaspirant

(160,000–230,000)

9

76

35

146

97

133

150

112

Middleand

lower-middleincome

Aspirant(85,000–160,000)

Loweraspirant

(55,000–85,000)

43

174

33

119

100

28

85

24

Lowerincome

Poor(<55,000)

38

34

30

27

Upper-middleandhigh-incomeshare,%2752

Source:McKinseyGlobalInstituteInsightsChinaMacroModel;McKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysis

62

69

McKinsey&Company

3.China’sautomarketismoreadvancedthanothermajordevelopingcountries

Chinastandsoutamongmajordevelopingcountriesonseveralkeymetrics,includingsalesintensityandmarketmaturity.

(1)Chinashowssignificantlyhighersalesintensitythanotherdevelopingcountries

Comparingmajordevelopingcountriesbypercapitanewvehiclesales(salesper1,000people)andGDPpercapita,Chinastandsoutamongthosewithpopulationsabove50million—evenrelativetodevelopingcountrieswithhigherGDPpercapita(Exhibit7).

Exhibit7

Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.13

Amongpeersatsimilarstagesofdevelopment,Chinaleadsinnewvehiclesales.

Passengervehiclesalesper

1,000people,

units

Passengervehiclesalesper1,000peoplevsGDPpercapita,fordevelopingnationswith>50millionpopulation,2020–25

China

Otherdevelopingnations

Eachdotrepresentsnew

vehiclesalesper1,000people

vsGDPpercapitafora

specificcountryinagivenyear

05,00010,00015,00020,000

GDPpercapita(nominalGDP),USD

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Source:ChinaNewCarInsuranceRegistrationDatabase;IMF;S&PGlobal;WorldBank

McKinsey&Company

(2)China’sautomarketisrelativelymatureinlicensepenetrationandvehicleownershipamonglicenseholders

Driver’slicensepenetrationamongChinesemalesaged18to49hasalreadysurpassedtheUnitedKingdom’sandisclosetoUSlevels(Exhibit8).Thisindicatesthatwithinthiscoreautodemandgroup,holdingalicenseisnolongerameaningfulconstraint.

LicensepenetrationamongChinesewomenandamongmiddle-agedandolderadults,

however,remainswellbelowthelevelsseenintheUnitedKingdomandUnitedStates.Thegapstemslargelyfromsocioculturalfactorsandthereforecannotbeeasilyclosedthroughshort-termpolicymeasuresoreconomicchange.Penetrationamongthesegroupsis

expectedtorisegradually,butestablisheddivisionofdrivingrolesandtheculturalnormofadultchildrencaringforagingparentsmakeasignificantincreaseunlikelyintheshorttomediumterm.

Exhibit8

14Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.

LicensepenetrationamongChina’syoungandmiddle-agedpopulationisnearingUKandUSlevels,withlimitedgrowth.

US(2024)UK(2024)1China(2025)

Female

87

66

51

92

82

25

87

71

5

100

License-holderpenetrationamongpopulation,ChinavsUSvsUK,bygender/age,%

Male

18–49

88

72

82

50–59

92

91

42

≥60

93

79

9

100

1DataforEnglandonly.

Source:ChinaMinistryofPublicSecurity;NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina;NationalTravelSurvey2024;UKDepartmentforTransport;Highwaystatistics2024;FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),USDepartmentofTransportation

McKinsey&Company

AsChina’slicensed-driverpopulationisgraduallyapproachingitsupperlimit,themarkethasenteredarelativelymaturestagemarkedbyhighpenetrationandclearlydefinedstructuralboundaries.Futuresalesgrowthwilldependmoreonthepaceofcarreplacementthanon

furtherexpansionofthelicensed-driverbase.

Measuredbycarparcper1,000people,Chinastilllagswellbehinddevelopedmarketssuch

asEurope,Japan,andtheUnitedStates.Thisprimarilyreflectsdemographicstructure

andlicensepenetrationratherthantheunderlyinglevelofmarketmaturity.Onaper1,000

licensed-driverbasis,China’svehicleownershipof609unitsisalreadyonparwithSouth

Korea,andthegapwiththeUnitedKingdom(about841units)andJapan(about762units)hasvisiblynarrowed(Exhibit9).VehicleownershipinChina,inotherwords,isalreadyrelatively

highamongthosewithrealisticpurchasingpotential.Themarkethasmovedpastthe

stageofscale-drivenexpansionandisevolvingintoamorematurephase,withstructurallyconstrainedheadroomforgrowth.

Exhibit9

Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.15

VehiclepenetrationamonglicenseddriversinChinaisonparwiththatindevelopedcountries.

Carparcper1,000peopleinChinavsdevelopedcountries,units

C1000lihld

Carparcper1000people

arparcper,censeoers

1,130

913

762

841

613

609

,

US2024797

Germany2024591

Japan2024503

UK20241500

SouthKorea2024421

China2025227

1DataforEnglandonly.

Source:ChinaMinistryofPublicSecurity;localgovernmentbenchmarkingreportforEngland,LGInform;Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt(KBA);KoreanNationalPoliceAgency;JapanAutomobileManufacturersAssociation(JAMA);NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina;NationalPoliceAgencyofJapan;MinistryofLand,

Infrastructure,andTransportofSouthKorea;UKDepartmentforTransport;USFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA);WorldBank

McKinsey&Company

(3)Demandfrommultivehiclehouseholdsiswellestablished,with

penetrationalreadyatarelativelyhighlevel

Multivehiclehouseholds—thoseowningmorethanoneprivatevehicle—now

accountforapproximately30percentofcar-owninghouseholdsinChina,

approachingUKlevels.Thissuggeststhatowningmultiplecarsisbecoming

lessaboutbasicmobilityandmoreamarkerofmaturingdemand(Exhibit10).

(4)Ashortageofparkingspaceisafurtherstructuralconstrainton

growth

ResidentialparkinginChinaremainsfarmoreconstrainedthaninmature

marketssuchasEuropeandtheUnitedStates.Basedonpublicresearchand

modelestimates,only44percentofChinesehouseholdsownadedicated

parkingspaceintheirresidentialcommunity,comparedwith65percentinthe

UnitedKingdomand63percentintheUnitedStates.

4

4ShiqiOu,ZhenhongLin,XinHe,andStevenPrzesmitki,“Estimationofvehiclehomeparking

availabilityinChinaandquantificationofitspotentialimpactsonplug-inelectricvehicleownershipcost,”TransportPolicy,September30,2018,Volume68.

Exhibit10

16Valueisthecompass.Consumerssetthepace.

Amonghouseholdsthatownvehicles,China’srateofmultiplevehicleownershipisapproachingUKlevels.

Numberofcarsamongvehicle-owninghouseholds,ChinavsUKvsUS,%

Multiplecars30

43

64

Onecaronly70

57

36

China2023UK20241US2024

1DataforEnglandonly.

Source:ChinaMinistryofPublicSecurity;ChinaNewCarInsuranceRegistrationDatabase;NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina;ACS20241-yearestimates,USCensusBureau;NationalTravelSurvey2024,UKDepartmentforTransport;WorldBank;Yiche

McKinsey&Company

Parkingconditionsshapebothconvenienceandpurchaseintent.OEMscannotinfluence

parkingdirectly,butlimitedspacelowerstheceilingonownership.Whenparkingiscostlyoruncertain,evenhouseholdswithsufficientpurchasingpowertendtolimithowmanyvehiclestheyownorforgoasecondvehiclealtogether.

Residentialpatternsandurbanspatialstructuresareslowtochangeintheshorttomedium

term.Productupgrades,technologicaladvances,andpricingcanshiftquickly;improvementstoparkinginfrastructuretakelonger,costmore,anddependoncollaborationamongurban

planningauthoritiesandotherpublic-sectorstakeholders.Asaresult,China’sautomarketisunlikelytoreplicatethestep-changegrowthseeninsomematuremarketsthrougharapidincreaseinthenumberofcarsownedamongmulti-vehiclehousehold.

4.China’scarsalesaverageapproximately24millionunitsayear

China’sautomarkethasenteredasteady-statephase,withhighpenetrationandclear

structuralboundaries.Ontheonehand,passengervehicledemandissupportedbystrongreplacementandadditional-vehiclepurchases,moderategrowthinthelicensed-driver

population,andsteadilyimprovinghouseholdpurchasingpower.Ontheother,license

penetrationisapproachingitsstructuralceilingwithvehicleownershipamonglicenseddriversalreadymatchingsomedevelopedmarkets,theshareofmultivehiclehouseholdsisnearing

ma