阿里巴巴-W云栖2026：持续投入于AI基础设施

阿里巴巴-W阿里巴巴-W9988HK/BABAUS)阿里云公众号图表2：阿里预计阿里云2032年运营的全球数据中心规模将超20GW阿里云公众号阿里巴巴-W阿里巴巴-W9988HK/BABAUS)阿里云公众号阿里巴巴-W9988HK/BABA阿里巴巴-W9988HK/BABAUS)图表4：阿里巴巴：关键预测（人民币百万元）FY26FY27EFY28EFY29E2QFY263QFY264QFY261QFY272QFY27E阿里巴巴电商集团794,408805,318834,162859,893189,504226,409179,683205,862188,590同比增长1.4%3.6%3.1%3.5%-0.5%AI云与算力服务158,832239,836359,754525,24239,90443,48442,02648,43760,255同比增长51.0%50.0%46.0%44.9%51.0%AI实验室与应用13,96616,58720,56826,3283,1953,7704,1193,3383,739同比增长18.8%24.0%28.0%15.8%17.0%所有其他116,323115,926115,926115,92627,63930,64629,40828,80327,363同比增长-0.3%0.0%0.0%0.6%-1.0%未分摊2,3402,5432,8733,299577603641783765合并调整-62,198-74,193-83,816-96,225-13,024-20,069-12,496-18,270-17,357合并收入1,023,6701,106,0181,223,3231,404,445247,795284,843243,380268,953263,355同比增长2.7%8.0%10.6%14.8%4.8%1.7%2.9%8.6%6.3%调整后EBITA76,416129,196173,642232,0849,07323,3975,10227,32931,145同比增长-55.8%69.1%34.4%33.7%-77.6%-57.3%-84.4%-29.6%243.3%调整后EBITA利润率7.5%11.7%14.2%16.5%3.7%8.2%2.1%10.2%11.8%注：2QFY26-4QFY26板块收入数据公司尚未追溯披露，现在华泰预测值。公司公告 预测阿里巴巴-W阿里巴巴-W9988HK/BABAUS)TP782港倍非电商集团每S估值9美元（不变，每香港普通股估值5港元（不变，基于FY27GAAP202614.8I云与算力服务每S估值2（不变5（不变6.0FY27PS20266.6倍有所折价，主因阿里云服务利润率距离海外同行仍有一定差距。I实验室与应用每S估值2（不变0（不变10.0FY27202623.8AI原生应用收入贡献占比尚处较低水平。基于最新市值以及%持有折让（不变，战略投资每S估值5美元（不变，每香12.3港元（不变图表5：阿里巴巴：SOTP估值，FY27（人民币百万）调整后净利润PE(x)营收PS(x)估值，百万美元持有比例估值，百万美元ADS每普通股估值，港元电商集团162,8487.0x167,998100.0%167,99869.968.5AI云与算力服务239,8366.0x212,076100.0%212,07688.286.5AI实验室与应用16,58710.0x24,446100.0%24,44610.210.0投资43,05070.0%30,13512.512.3合计434,654180.8177.2注：美元/人民币=6.8，美元/港元=7.8，基于9月22日汇率。华泰研究预测图表6：电商可比公司估值公司名称代码股价市值P/S营收CAGRP/E调整后净利CAGR(交易货币)(百万美元)2026E2027E2028E2026-2028E2026E2027E2028E2026-2028E拼多多PDDUS79.30112,8681.71.51.48.67.66.55.68.4京东JDUS27.2836,6640.20.20.25.07.96.25.221.0唯品会VIPSUS12.506,9160.50.40.40.27.15.95.7(2.1)美团3690HK73.2058,2150.90.80.713.2273.915.99.9-AMAZONAMZNUS258.452,787,7233.42.92.614.818.120.316.418.7eBayEBAYUS108.3048,1943.83.63.48.417.316.214.78.5DoorDashDASHUS193.8383,9864.73.93.322.730.722.316.930.4DeliveryHeroDHERGR36.8012,8390.80.70.711.5---(13.2)平均值2.42.11.910.014.812.910.814.1注：数据截至9月22日收盘。美团和DeliveryHero不纳入平均值计算。VisibleAlpha一致预期图表7：AI云与算力服务可比公司估值公司名称代码股价市值P/S营收CAGRP/E调整后净利CAGR(交易货币)(百万美元)2026E2027E2028E2026-2028E2026E2027E2028E2026-2028EAmazonAMZNUS258.452,787,7233.42.92.614.818.120.316.418.7MicrosoftMSFTUS501.613,724,72810.38.77.218.927.123.219.318.1GoogleGOOGUS354.974,318,6228.77.05.922.225.620.416.924.9SalesforceCRMUS236.42194,5744.23.83.510.413.914.712.98.0平均值6.65.64.816.621.219.616.417.4注：数据截至9月22日收盘；均为自然年数据。VisibleAlpha一致预期图表8：AI实验室与应用可比公司估值公司名称 代码 股市值P/SCAGR(交易货币)(百万美元)2026E2027E2028E 2026-2028E金山办公688111CH223.5915,482.8114.812.410.618.7同花顺300033CH210.6623,661.1721.119.217.814.4美图1357HK4.082,3753.42.72.322.9智谱2513HK794.0047,12456.018.49.0284.4MiniMax100HK298.0013,26627.89.24.4237.6平均值23.813.29.985.1注：数据截至9月22日收盘；均为自然年数据。VisibleAlpha一致预期风险提示模型性能提升不及预期；云收入增速不及预期；电商增速不及预期。图表9：阿里巴巴-WPE-Bands 图表10：阿里巴巴-WPB-Bands(港币)266

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0Sep-23Mar-24Sep-24Mar-25Sep-25Mar-26Sep-26阿里巴巴阿里巴巴-W9988HK/BABAUS)S&P、华泰研究 S&P、华泰研究阿里巴巴阿里巴巴-W9988HK/BABAUS)盈利预测利润表 现金流量表会计年度(人民币百万)2025 2026 2027E 2028E 2029E会计年度(人民币百万)202520262027E2028E2029E营业收入996,3471,023,6701,106,0181,223,3231,404,445EBITDA192,71799,723164,711221,800292,793销售成本(598,285)(616,136)(649,484)(712,820)(819,036)融资成本(11,163)(77,760)(22,120)(12,233)(14,044)毛利润398,062407,534456,534510,503585,409营运资本变动15,26326,139(4,465)5,32515,058销售及分销成本(144,021)(245,023)(196,871)(207,965)(210,667)税费(35,445)(30,045)(38,712)(37,761)(46,017)管理费用(44,239)(33,082)(53,089)(55,050)(60,391)其他2,13758,15642,092145,71051,579其他收入/支出3,3871,5182,2122,4472,809经营活动现金流163,50976,213141,506322,841299,369财务成本净额11,16377,76022,12012,23314,044CAPEX(83,544)(93,986)(165,903)(171,265)(185,387)应占联营公司利润及亏损5,9662,7855,5306,1177,022其他投资活动(101,871)26,65023,413(42,816)(46,347)税前利润161,421130,365143,497177,759237,107投资活动现金流(185,415)(67,336)(142,489)(214,082)(231,733)税费开支(35,445)(30,045)(38,712)(37,761)(46,017)债务增加量9,1105,7700.000.000.00少数股东损益4,1331,4651,1061,2231,404权益增加量(86,652)(6,596)0.000.000.00归母净利润129,470104,097105,592140,921192,194派发股息(34,772)(34,623)(25,824)(32,770)(43,136)Non-GAAP调整项28,470(39,659)22,85223,03923,416其他融资活动现金流36,09914,8760.000.000.00调整后净利润157,94064,438128,444163,960215,610融资活动现金流(76,215)(20,573)(25,824)(32,770)(43,136)折旧和摊销(42,459)(47,118)(43,334)(56,275)(69,731)现金变动(98,121)(11,696)(26,807)75,98924,499EBITDA192,71799,723164,711221,800292,793年初现金286,424189,268173,568146,761222,750EPS(人民币，基本)6.735.415.497.339.99汇率波动影响965.00(4,004)0.000.000.00年末现金189,268173,568146,761222,750247,250资产负债表会计年度(人民币百万)202520262027E2028E2029E存货0.000.000.000.000.00应收账款和票据202,175251,837258,491271,611296,234业绩指标现金及现金等价物145,487131,530123,758215,573252,043会计年度(倍)202520262027E2028E2029E其他流动资产326,387227,402203,534222,524243,434增长率(%)总流动资产674,049610,769585,783709,708791,711营业收入5.862.748.0410.6114.81固定资产203,348282,699401,665513,782626,599毛利润12.182.3812.0211.8214.67无形资产20,91116,98320,58623,45926,297营业利润24.31(65.72)135.2638.1335.85其他长期资产905,919999,119995,342898,744911,755净利润62.36(19.60)1.4433.4636.38总长期资产1,130,1781,298,8011,417,5921,435,9851,564,652调整后净利润(0.26)(59.20)99.3327.6531.50总资产1,804,2271,909,5702,003,3752,145,6932,356,363EPS(基本)62.36(19.60)1.4433.4636.38应付账款412,784448,174451,474472,110515,901盈利能力比率(%)短期借款22,56228,22428,22428,22428,224毛利润率39.9539.8141.2841.7341.68其他负债0.000.000.000.000.00EBITDA19.349.7414.8918.1320.85总流动负债435,346476,398479,698500,334544,125净利润率12.9910.179.5511.5213.68长期债务49,90947,45047,45047,45047,450调整后净利润率15.856.2911.6113.4015.35其他长期债务228,866259,452259,646261,868266,749ROE12.839.969.4811.5614.14总长期负债278,775306,902307,096309,318314,199调整后ROE15.656.1711.5313.4515.86股本1.001.001.001.001.00ROA7.265.615.406.798.54储备/其他项目1,021,5701,068,7301,159,0411,278,5021,440,500偿债能力(倍)股东权益1,021,5711,068,7311,159,0421,278,5031,440,501净负债比率