高盛-美国经济分析：预测年底前的通胀形势（摘要）-Goldman Sachs Research-20260927

2026年9月27日|6:19PMEDTRonnieWalker+1(917)343-4543RonnieWalker+1(917)343-4543|ronnie.walker@n过去三个月的通胀数据表现良好，核心CPI年化通胀率均值为2.0%，核心PCE通胀率预估均值为2.5%（计入修订因素）。我们预计未来两个月的通胀数据将略有上n我们初步预测9月/10月核心CPI月环比分别增长0.24%和0.22%。以下两个因素推高了这两个CPI数据。第一，由于航油涨价，我们已将9月机票涨幅即时预测上调至+3%，我们预计未来几个月能源和其他大宗商品成本上涨将为月度核心通胀贡n第二，去年政府停摆致使数据缺失，美国劳工统计局为计算最新季节性因素所采取的插补法将导致10月季节性因素失真。我们估计，这种新的残余季节性将使得10月季调后核心CPI通胀率虚高5个基点（对10月核心PCE通胀率的推升幅度略n此后，我们预计核心CPI读数将趋于下行（11月：+0.12%，12月：+0.11%因为住房通胀保持低迷而且关税引发的进一步价格涨幅有限。此外，保险分项将在2026年10月至2027年3月期间使得月度核心CPI通胀率降低2-3个基n核心PCE通胀可能仍更偏坚挺（高盛对9月至12月的预测：+0.23%/+0.23%/+0.16%/+0.16%）。PCE不使用CPI作为健康和汽车保险数据来源，因此不会像CPI那样因我们预期上述类别价格指标走低而面临下行压力。此外，虽然即将迎来的PCE统计方法修订应会减少（此前存在误差的）软件和配件类n联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在接下来的几次会议上将掌握哪些数据？在10月会议之前，将有一份CPI报告（9月份）和一份PCE报告（8月份）出炉；在12月会议之前，还有一份CPI报告（10月份）和两份PCE报告（9月份和10月份）。沃什主席在JacksonHole演讲中提到了通胀广度衡量指标（PCE价格指数中的六个月年化涨幅超过3%的分项指数占比），预计到12月FOMC会议时，该指标可能会从他先前引述的49%下降到约43%，略高于36%的1990-2019年均值，远低于疫情后76%投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息/research/hedge.html。InflationThroughYear-endThelastthreemonthsofinflationdatahavebeenfavorableonnet,withcoreCPIinflationaveraging2.0%annualizedandcorePCEinflationaveraging2.5%(GSestimatethroughAugust,includingtheimpactoftheupcomingmethodologicalrevisions).Weexpectthenexttwomonthsofinflationdatatobesomewhatlessfavorablebeforeamorebenigntrendreassertsitself.图表1:GSInflationForecastsYearYear-over-Year--Note:Italicizedvaluesalreadyreleased.PCEforecastsaccountforthepotentialimpactofupcomingmethodologicalchanges.Octoberyear-over-yearvalueswillnotbeavailableforheadlineandcoreCPIbecauseofmissingdatainOctober2025duetothegovernmentshutdown.Theyear-over-yearratesofPCEandCPIwillbebiasedhigherbetweenOctober2026andMarch2027,duringwhichtheywillbelappingtheperiodinwhichtheindexlevelwasbiaseddownwardbymisseddatacollection(primarilystemmingfromthesheltercategory)duetothegovernmentshutdown.Wepreliminarilyforecast+0.24%formonthlycoreCPIinSeptemberand+0.22%inOctober.Thesereadingswillbeboostedbytwofactors.First,asdetailedinlastweek’sAnalyst,weexpecthigherenergyandothercommoditycoststoboostmonthlycoreinflationby3-5bpforthenextfewmonths.2026年9月27日22026年9月27日3图表2:WeEstimateThatHigherOilandRefinedProductCostsWillBoostConsumerPricesModestlyFurtherAirfaresOtherTransportationMedicalSvcs.AccommodationsOtherSvcs.RecreationSvcs.AirfaresOtherTransportationMedicalSvcs.AccommodationsOtherSvcs.RecreationSvcs.FoodSvcs.AutoPartsOtherDur.GoodsJewelry,Watches50EstimatedImpactofEnergyandRefinedProductPriceson2026Year-Over-YearRealizedYettoCome0.500.00ServicesGoodsHigheroilpriceswillcontinuetohavetheirmostacuteimpactonairfares.TherightpanelofExhibit3showsthatournowcastforSeptemberairfares,whichincorporatesthesignalfromjetfuelpricesandourequityanalysts’measureofonlineairfares,nowstandsat+3%.图表3:TheIncreaseinOilPricesHasPushedJetFuelPricesandOurTrackingofSeptemberAirfaresHigherCPI:AirlineFares(MoM,seasonallyadjusted)JanCPI:AirlineFares(MoM,seasonallyadjusted)Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJuneJulyAug.GSSept.nowcastPercentchangePercentchange7654321076543210CentspergallonCentspergallon500USJetFuelSpotPrice500450450StartofIranWar400400350350300300250250200200150Jan-25Apr-25Jul-25Oct-25Jan-26Apr-26Jul-26资料来源：EIA,DepartmentofLabor,高盛全球投资研究部Second,lastyear’sgovernmentshutdownintroducedanewsourceofresidualseasonalitytotheCPIthatweestimatewillundulyboostOctoberseasonally-adjustedcoreCPIinfiationby5bp.TheseasonaladjustmentalgorithmthattheBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS)usesfortheCPIcannothandlemissing2026年9月27日4values,sotheBLSapproximatedtheOctobernotseasonallyadjusteddatathatwerenotcollectedasaresultofthegovernmentshutdown“bytakingthegeometric-meanoftheSeptemberandNovemberindexvalues”toestimateseasonalfactors.Formanycomponents,thetypicalOctoberseasonalpatternisnotconsistentwiththisapproach,andtheirseasonalfactorshavebeendistortedasaresult.图表4:MissingDatafromLastYear’sGovernmentShutdownIntroducedaNewSourceofResidualSeasonalitytotheCPI;WeEstimateItWillUndulyBoostOctoberSeasonallyAdjustedCoreInflationby5bpWiththeImpactSpreadAcrossCategoriesRevisiontoRevisiontoOctoberSeasonalHurdle,byCPICategory*PublictransportationApparelLodgingawayfromhomeTransportationservicesex-public Recreationex-petsMedicalcareservicesPersonalcareOwners'equivalentrentRentofprimaryresidenceHouseholdfurnishingsEducationCommunicationPercentagepointsLowerbarforaseasonallyadjustedincreasePercentchangePercentchange0.050.05RevisiontoSeasonallyAdjusted0.03202320240.030.020.020.010.010.000.00-0.01-0.01-0.02-0.02-0.03-0.03-0.05-0.05JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNote:Categoriesnotlisted(motorvehicleparts,beverages)arenotseasonallyadjhurdlesforOctober2026vs.thereal-timeprojesame2026relativeweightsforcomponent-lev资料来源：DepartmentofLabor,高盛全球投资研究部AfterSeptemberandOctober,weexpectamorebenigninflationtrendtoreassertitself—wearepencilingin+0.12%formonthlycoreCPIinNovemberand+0.11%forDecember—primarilyreflectingthreefactors.First,weexpectlimitedfurthertariff-relatedpriceincreases.Weestimatethattariffpass-throughhascontributedonlyabout1bponaveragetomonthlycoreCPIinflationoverthelastfewmonths(Exhibit5).2026年9月27日5图表5:ThePass-throughofTariffstoConsumerPricesIsMostlyDoneJan-25Apr-25Jul-25Oct-25Jan-26Apr-26Jul-26TariffEffectsonMonthlyNote:AdjustedfordistortionsinOctober-December2025causedbythegovernmentshutdown.Second,weexpecttheslowdowninshelterinfiationtoremainanongoingsourceofdisinfiation.Additionally,shelterinfiationcouldbeparticularlysoftinNovember.ShelterinfiationwassurprisinglyfirminMay,refiectingwhatappearedtobeanoutlier-drivenincreaseconcentratedintheNortheast(Exhibit6,rightpanel).Becausethesheltersamplefollowsasix-monthrotatingpanelstructure,thatpanelgroupwillberesampledinNovember,providinganopportunityfortheMayspiketoreverse.1.0MayRentofShelter,byRegion(SAbyGS)0.20.0NortheastNationalSouthWestMidwestPercentchangePercentchange1.00.20.0图表6:ShelterInfiationHasAlreadySlowedtoaPaceBelowthePre1.0MayRentofShelter,byRegion(SAbyGS)0.20.0NortheastNationalSouthWestMidwestPercentchangePercentchange1.00.20.0PercentchangePercentchange0.8PercentchangePercentchange0.8CPIRentandOER(Month-over-Month)April2026:boostfrommisseddatacollection0.6duringthego0.60.50.40.30.20.10.020192020202120222023202资料来源：DepartmentofLabor,高盛全球投资研究部Third,theinsurancecategoriesthatareuniquetotheCPIarelikelytocontinuedeclining(Exhibit7).Autoinsurancepremiumsappeartohavemorethanfullyclosedthegapwithrepairandreplacementcosts,andtheCPIcomponenthasdeclinedby5.3%sinceDecember.Ourmodelbasedonregulatoryfilingssuggests2026年9月27日6modestfurtherdeclinesonnetthroughyear-end.Theprofitmarginsofhealthinsurancecompanies—whichinformtheCPIhealthinsurancecomponentwithalag—havenarrowedinrecentyears,andourmodelsuggeststhattheupcomingsemiannualupdatetothesourcedatafortheCPIcomponentinOctobercouldresultinevenlargermonthlydeclinesbetweenOctober2026andMarch2027,subtracting2-3bpfrommonthlycoreCPI.图表7:DeclinesinAutoandHealthInsurancePricesWillPutDownwardPressureonCoreCPI323210-1-2CPICarInsuranceModelBasedonState-ApprovedPriceChanges-3-32021202220232024202520262027Percentchange,monthagoPercentchange,monthago3210-1-2-5-5201720192021202320252027CPIHealthInsurance*ModelBasedonChangeinInsurerProfitability**Percentchange,monthagoPercentchange,monthago543210-1-2-3-4543210-1-2-3-4Note:TheBLSdidnotpublishcarinsuranceindexvaluesinOctoberandNovember2025,reflectingtheimpactofthegovernmentshutdown.*Adjustedtoexcludethetrendinhospitalservicesandphysicianservicesprices(average,3MCMA).**Dataonretention-benefitratiostransformedtoCPI-equivalentbasis.MethodologyswitchesinOctober2023.ForecastsaverageacrossUnitedHealth,Cigna,Humana,Centene,WellPoint,andMolina,andusecompanyguidanceforfuturequarterswhenavailable.资料来源：DepartmentofLabor,高盛全球投资研究部Exhibit8showsthatourforecastsforcoreCPIaresomewhatabovethoseimpliedbymarketpricinginSeptemberandOctober,butbelowinNovemberandDecember.图表8:OurForecastsfortheCoreCPIAreSomewhatAbovethePathImpliedbyMarketPricinginSeptemberandOctoberbutBelowinNovemberandDecemberPercentchangePercentchange0.450.400.350.300.250.200.150.100.050.00Percentchange0.450.400.350.300.250.200.150.100.050.00-0.05-0.05JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecCoreCPI(MoM,seasonallyadjusted)GSMarket-implied资料来源：DepartmentofLabor,高盛全球投资研究部2026年9月27日7Ourinfiationforecasts,andinparticularourheadlineinfiationforecasts,willbeespeciallysensitivetothepathofoilpricesinthecomingmonths,andtheriskstoourforecastsaretiltedtotheupsideifdisruptionstooilmarketsintensifyfurther.Recentinfiationreadingshavealsohighlightedanadditionalsourceofuncertainty:thewirelesstelephoneservicescomponent.ThecomponenthasbecomemorevolatilesincetheBLSbeganincorporatingsecondarysourcedatainitsconstructionlastyear,andloweredJuneinfiationwhenitdeclinedsharplyandboostedAugustinfiationwhenitmorethanfullyrebounded.Thatsaid,thereboundinAugustbroughttheindexroughlyinlinewiththesignalfromtheevolutionoverthelastyearoftheaveragerevenueperuser—aproxyforthepriceofphoneplans—reportedbymajorwirelesstelephoneserviceproviders,andPCEhasnotbeenimpactedbythecomponent’svolatilitytothesamedegreeasCPIbecausethecomponentreceivesabouthalftheweightinPCEthatitdoesinCPI.Asusual,wewillcontinuetoupdateourforecastsasweapproachthereleasedatesandfinalizetheminourregularCPIpreviewpublications.图表9:TheWirelessTelephoneServicesComponentoftheCPIHasBecomeMoreVolatileSincetheBLSIntroducedNewSourceDataLastYear;ReportedRevenuePerUser—aProxyforthePriceofPhonePlans—SuggestsThattheLatestReadingoftheCPISeriesIsRoughlyFairCPI:CPI:WirelessTelephoneServicesAvg.RevenuePerUser,MajorWirelessPhoneServiceProvidersBloombergConsensusApr-'25Jul-'25Oct-'25Jan-'26Apr-'26Jul-'26Oct-'26Jan-'27Apr-'27Index(2025Q2=100)Index(2025Q2=100)资料来源：DepartmentofLabor,彭博,高盛全球投资研究部CorePCEinfiationwilllikelyremainslightlymorestubbornthancoreCPIfortworeasons.First,PCEdoesnotusetheCPIasitssourceforhealthandautoinsurancedata,andthereforewillnotreceivethedownwardpressureweexpectonCPIfromdeclinesinthosecategories.Second,whileupcomingmethodologicalchangesshouldreducethecontributionfromthe(mismeasured)softwareandaccessoriescategorytoPCE(Exhibit10)byaveragingthecurrentsourcedatafromtheCPIwithtwoPPIseriesthathaveexperiencedmoremoderateincreasesoverthelastyear,westillexpectmodestupwardsequentialpressurefromthecategoryrefiectingthelaggedimpactofincreasesinmemoryprices.OurCPIforecastsareconsistentwith0.23%,0.23%,0.16%,and0.16%monthly2026年9月27日8increasesincorePCEpricesinSeptember-December.图表10:TheUpcomingMethodologicalChangestoPCEWillLikelyReducetheContributionfromtheSoftwareandAccessoriesComponentByAveragingtheCurrentCPISourceDataWithTwoPPISeriesThatHaveSeenMoreModerateIncreasesOvertheLastYearPercentagePercentagepointsPercentagepoints0.12ContributiontoMonth-over-MonthCorePCEInflation0.12FromSoftwareandAccessoriesComponent0.09OldMethodology0.09NewMethodology(GSForecast)0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03-0.06-0.06-0.09-0.09202320242025202620270.060.06资料来源：DepartmentofCommerce,高盛全球投资研究部TheBreadthofInflationAheadoftheNextTwoFOMCMeetingsTherewillbeonlyonemoreCPIreading(forSeptember)aheadoftheOctobermeetingandonefurtherfullroundofinflationdata(forOctober)aheadoftheDecembermeeting.Underourinflationforecasts,themeasureofinflationbreadththatChairmanWarshnotedinhisJacksonHolespeech—theshareofPCEpricesthathaveincreasedbymorethan3%onasix-monthannualizedbasis—woulddeclinesomewhatfurtherfromthe49%hecitedforJuly.Weestimatethemeasurewilldeclineto43%intheOctoberdatathattheFOMCwillhaveinhandattheDecemberFOMCmeeting(Exhibit11,leftpanel),slightlyabovethe1990-2019averageof36%,wellbelowthepost-pandemicpeakof76%,andsimilartothecurrentshareifwenetoutestimatedtariffeffects(Exhibit11,rightpanel),whicharenowlargelybehindus.2026年9月27日91990199520002005201020152020202520302035GSEstimateofShareRunningAbove3%iPercent90807060504030200Shareof6mAnnualizedPCEInflationWithinEachRange,Unweighted,ExcludingImpactofTariffs>6%4-6%3-4%807060504030200AverageShares,1990-2019WhenInflationAveraged90Percent图表1990199520002005201020152020202520302035GSEstimateofShareRunningAbove3%iPercent90807060504030200Shareof6mAnnualizedPCEInflationWithinEachRange,Unweighted,ExcludingImpactofTariffs>6%4-6%3-4%807060504030200AverageShares,1990-2019WhenInflationAveraged90Percent19901995200020051990199520002005201020152020202520302035GSEstimateofShareRunningAbove3%inPercent90807060504030200Shareof6mAnnualizedPCEInflationWithinEachRange,Unweighted>6%4-6%3-4%807060504030200AverageShares,1990-2019WhenInflationAveraged90Percent资料来源：DepartmentofCommerce,高盛全球投资研究部RonnieWalkerAppendixGSComponent-LevelCPIForecastsWeightAugustCoreCPI(MoMSA)September,October,GSForecastGSForecastNovember,GSForecastDecember,GSForecastCore100%0.29%0.24%0.22%0.12%0.11%Apparel3%0.0%0.1%0.5%0.1%0.2%Newcars5%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%Usedcars3%0.4%0.5%0.3%0.0%0.0%Motorvehicleparts0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Medicalcarecommodities2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%Tobacco0.6%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%Rentofprimaryresidence0.17%0.17%0.16%0.12%0.17%Lodgingawayfromhome2%2.4%0.7%0.7%0.4%0.4%Medicalcareservices9%-0.2%0.4%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%Publictransportation2%2.3%2.2%2.4%0.4%Transportationservicesex-public8%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.4%Pets0.2%0.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%Recreationex-pets6%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%Education3%0.8%0.5%0.3%0.2%0.2%Communication2.3%0.1%-0.1%-0.4%0.2%Householdfurnishingsandops.5%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%Personalcare3%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%Alcoholicbeverages0.1%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%Owners'equivalentrent33%0.19%0.20%0.22%0.18%0.21%Residual(implicit)3%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%资料来源：DepartmentofLabor,高盛全球投资研究部2026年9月27日10ContributionstoOurMonthlyCoreCPIForecasts0.50.5RentandOER0.5AutoInsurancebymissingdatafromtheAirfares+Hotelsforecast0.3Total0.30.20.20.10.10.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecPercentagepointsContributionstoMonthlyCoreCPIInflationPercentagepointsResidualseasonalitycausedOther资料来源：DepartmentofLabor,高盛全球投资研究部2026年9月27日11TheUSEconomicandFinancialOutlookTHEUSECONOMICANDFINANCIALOUTLOOK(%changeonpreviousperiod,annuali20232024202520262027Q12026Q2Q3Q4Q12027Q2Q3Q4OUTPUTANDSPENDINGRealGDP(annual=Q4/Q4,quarterly=y7.0