通过网格正向数据中心驱动人工智能

PoweringAIthrough

grid-positivedatacenters

Howflexibledatacenterconnectionsandoperationsaccelerateenergization

andlowertotalsystemcosts—aNorthwestEuropeperspective

Objectivesofthis

publication

Showwhydatacenters

needafaster,moregrid-

positivepathtopower,andwhy,donewell,they

strengthenratherthanstrainthegrid

Quantifywhatflexible

connectionsandbehind-the-meterassetsdeliver,forthedatacenterandforthesystemasawhole

Setoutpracticalactionsforkeystakeholders,andthe

openquestionsthatwilldeterminehowfargrid-positivedatacenterscanscale

1

2

3

Keycontacts

TomBrijs

ManagingDirector&Partner

Co-authors

PattabiSeshadri

ManagingDirector&SeniorPartner

MauriceBerns

ManagingDirector&SeniorPartner

ThijsVenema

ManagingDirector&Partner

JonasGeerinck

ManagingDirector&SeniorPartner

BasSudmeijer

ManagingDirector&Partner

StevenGoovaerts

Principal

TheauthorswouldliketothankthefollowingBCGcolleaguesfortheirvaluablereviewsandcontributions:

DiegoVermeire,SamVandezande,JamieWebster,SouhailCherqaoui-Fassi,Pierre-ArmandJaboulay,MaloGrisard,AbdelhakimKhaouiti,MikhailNikomarov,JanZenneck,andPaulMartin.

2

Preface

ThecontestforleadershipinAIisalsoacontesttobuildandpowerthedatacentersbehindit,withtheeconomiesthathostthatcomputecapturingsignificantvalueandameasureoftechnologicalsovereignty.Globalcomputecapacityisexpectedtomorethandoubleby2030,andsecuringasharemeansconnectingdatacentersatanunprecedentedscaleandspeed–withconnectionqueuesinmanymarketsnowrunningfivetotenyears.Powerhasbecomeadecisiveconstraintonwheredatacentersarebuiltandhowfast–alongsideaccesstofiber,gas,cooling,andwater.

Muchofthisinvestmentisalsomobile.AgrowingshareofAIworkloadsarenotlatency-sensitive,sothecomputecanlocatewhereverpowerismostcompetitiveorcanbesecuredfirst.Connectionspeedhasthereforebecomealeverinthecompetitionbetweenmarketsandregions.

Locally,though,datacentersoftenfaceopposition.Theyarechallengedforraisingcostsforotherusers,lengtheningconnectionqueues,inflatinggridinvestment,andcompetingforscarcelow-carbonpower.Theconcernislegitimate,buttheoutcomeisnotpredetermined.Whetheradatacenterburdensorstrengthensthesystemdependsonhowandwhereitconnects,andhowitrunsonceitisonline.

Copyright©2026byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Althoughwefirmlybelieveloadgrowthisakeyleverforelectricityaffordability-spreadingfixedcostsovermoreusers,raisingutilization,andlettingdemandmaterializeforwhichweareexpandingourelectricitysystems-thispublicationdoesnottakeapositiononhowmuchdatacentercapacityagivencountryshouldhost:thatisasocietalandpoliticalchoice.Itinsteadstartsfromthepremisethatonceacountryhasdecidedacertainamountofdatacentercapacityisinitsinterest,thereisabetterandaworsewayofhostingit.Itarguesthatthereexistsawayfordatacenterstobeonlineyearssoonerwithoutpushingupcostsforothers.Itrestsontwokeylevers.First,connectinadifferentplacethantodayand/orconnectnon-firm:acceptcurtailmentinthehoursthegridisstressed,inexchangeforskippingtheyears-longwaitforfirmgridcapacity.Second,buildthecapabilitytoactonit:shiftflexibleworkloadsanddrawonbehind-the-meter(BTM)generationandstorage.Donethisway,grid-positivedatacenterscandelivermeasurablebenefitstoboththesystemandthemselves.

InNorthwestEurope,therealityisthatachievingthisinalreadycongestedmarketswillrequiredatacenterstohostsignificantBTMcapacity.Thataddstotheirpowersupplycosts;inthecaseswehavestudied,though,thevalueofenergizingyearssoonerbecauseofitoutweighsthisaddedcost.Evenwhilethatmaybethecase,undertoday'sconnectionrulesinmanymarkets,datacentersretaintherighttowaitforafirmconnectionwherevertheychoosetosite,withnon-firmaccessmerelyanoption-sorealizingthisvalueinpracticewilllikelyrequireclearsignals,commercialorregulatory,thatconnectingfirmwhereveradatacenterwantsissimplynotanalternativewhereitwouldnegativelyimpactthesystem.Noneofthisisaquickfix:itrequireschangingtoday'sapproachtositing,connecting,andoperatingdatacenters,andtoday’srulesregardingBTMusageandpermitting-anditwillnotbefeasibleeverywhere.Butwhereitis,grid-positivedatacentersshouldbethegoal.

3

Toquantifythis,BCGhasbuiltamodelthatjointlyoptimizesloadflexibility,BTMassets,andfirmversusnon-firmgridaccesstofindtheleast-costwaytomeetdata-centerdemand.ThispublicationfocusesonNorthwestEuropeovera2030-2035horizon,andsetsoutwhatthatmeansforeachstakeholder.

Poweristhedecisiveconstraintfordatacenterbuild-out,

8-15

5-15

Typicalbuildtimes3(years)

Datacenters

1-3

Generation

Solar&storage

1-2

Gas

3-6

Wind

3-9

Nuclear

Grid

Transmision

Gridconnectionqueues4(GW)

Queue/Peak

~15x

~5x

~4.5x

~4x

~4x

~4x

~3.5x

~3.5x

~2.5x

~1.5x

~0.75x

UK

DK

BE

ERCOT

DE

NYISO

NL

MISO

CAISO

PJM

FR

34

56

346

296

78

72

440

272

211

62

716

withlargeconnectionqueuesandwaitingtimesacrossregions

Datacenterpowerdemand1(GW)

~4x

210

~210GW equivalent tohalfof operating nuclearfleet worldwide, and~3xthenuclearcapacitycurrentlyunderconstruction

84

49

29

2015202020252030AI2HPCTraditional

Source(s):EIA;IEA;Lazard;USDOE;Expertinterviews;2026BCGGlobalDataCenterModel;BCGanalysis.

4

1.BasecasetrajectorybasedonBCGDataCenterSupplyModelandAIComputeDemandModel,excludingChinaandcrypto2.AIcomputedemandspansGPUs,whichprovidegeneral-purposeprocessingforAItrainingandinference,andASICs,whicharecustom-designedtodeliverhigherefficiencyforspecificAIworkloads,oftenusedforAIinference3.Assumeslarge-scalesolarandstorage;windincludes

onshore(rangelowerend)andoffshore(rangeupperend)4.Transmission-levelqueuesizecomparedtopeakload,asperthelatestpubliclyavailabledatainQ32024.

Inaddition,datacenterbuild-outisoftenconsideredasaburdento

Longerqueues

Datacenterstakescarcegrid

capacity,lengtheningconnection

queuesandleadtimesforotherusers

Datacentersnowrepresentupto40-50%oftheconnectionqueueinsomemarkets.InBelgium,theirshareroughly

quadrupled(from~4%to~16%,2022-25).Datacentersevenrepresented~70%of

theERCOTconnectionqueuein2025

theenergysystem

Higherbills

Risingemissions

Datacentersadddemandfasterthansupplycanbebuilt—pushingup

powerpricesforeveryoneelse

Datacenterstakescarcelow-carbonsupply,pushingthesystemontomorecarbon-intensivesources

PJMcapacitypricesjumped~10xintwo

Datacentersalreadytakeapproximately

years;itsindependentmarketmonitor

one-quarterofglobalcorporateclean-

attributes63%ofthe2025-26increaseto

powerprocurement(roughlyone-fifthin

datacenters.InEurope,sameconcernis

Europe).Inaddition,wheregridslag,

rising-policymakersinsistdatacenters

developersincreasinglyconsiderbuilding

mustconnectwithoutraisingbills

owngas-firedgenerators

Theseconcernsarereal-butafunctionofwhereandhowdatacentersareconnectedandoperated.Datacenterscanbe“grid-positive”aswell…

Source(s):PJMIndependentMarketMonitor;IEEFA;NRDC;Ember;S&PGlobal;CarbonBrief;Expertinterviews;BCGanalysis.5

Grid-positivedatacenterscansolvebothoftheseproblems

—Whatisa“grid-positive”datacenter?

Inthisdocument,adatacenterisgrid-positivewhen…ittriggerslittleincrementalgridorgenerationinvestment,while

spreadingfixedsystemcostsovermoreconsumption—or,atminimum,whentheneteffectofthetwoispositiveforthesystem.Thiscanbeachievedthroughfourlevers:

Connectionsiting

Operationalflexibility

Connectiondesign

Behind-the-meterassets

Energyefficiency

Reducespower

Optimizesgrid

interactionbyrelyingonownBTMassets

Batteries,on-sitefirm

generation(gas),on-siterenewables(solar,wind)

Connectsnon-firmtoavoidlargeupgradesandincreasespeed

Non-firmconnections;

takinglesspowerduringperiodsofcongestion

Putsloadwherethereisgridspaceand

generationsurplus

Brownfieldindustrial

sites;co-sitingw.powerplantsandconnections1

Movesloadintimeorspace,oractivates

“virtual”flexibility

Temporalorgeoload

shifting,oractivating

flexofneighboringloads2

consumptionofthedatacenteritself

Compute,cooling/powerusageeffectiveness

(PUE),chipefficiency

Periodsofgridunavailabilityputcomputeatrisk

Typicallyfartherfrom

computedemand,

addinglatency

Theseassetsaddto

thecostbaseand

requirespace/permits

…buteachlevercomeswithtrade-offs

Noteverycompute

loadcanmove,and

notateveryhour

Source(s):BCGanalysis.6

1.Someutilitiesofferthisas“poweredland”-siteswheredevelopersco-designdatacentersaroundexistingpowerinfrastructuretomaximizeutilizationandacceleratespeed-to-power2.Datacenter

operatorsareexploringhowtoactivatethistypeofneighboringflexibility;beyondthetechnicalcoordinationrequired,thisalsocallsfornewtypesofcommercialarrangementsbetweenthepartiesinvolved.

Potentialbenefitstothedatacenterofbeing“grid-positive”

Shortertime-to-powerandastrongerlicensetooperate-reflectedinthelargerboxesbelow-arewhatmakegoinggrid-positiveworthwhileforadatacenter.Lowerenergyandgridcosts,ontheirown,aretypicallynotenoughofanincentivefordatacenterstosite,connect,andoperatethisway.

License

tooperate

Faster

approvalsandlesslocalopposition

Faceslesscommunityand

politicalresistance,and

typicallywinsclearanceto

buildfaster-givenitspositiveimpactonthebroadersystem

>Easiertosite/permit

Lower

energycost

Lower

annualenergycost2

Underagivengridconnection,drawingfrombehind-the-meterassetsandoperational

flexibilityduringpeakhourscanresultinalowerpowersupply

costandprofitabilityuplift

>Lowerenergybill

Lower

gridcosts

Lower

networktariffs

Lowersboththeone-off

connectionchargeandongoingnetworktariffs,withthelevelvaryingsharplybycountry

>Lowerupfront/ongoingcosts

Beinggrid-positivecanhelpdatacenterstoconnectfaster…

Shorter

time-to-power

Upto$8M

perMWDC

capacityinstalled1

Connectingsooneronnon-firmtermsbringsforward

yearsofcomputerevenue;worthseveraltimesitscost

>Mainsourceofvalue

7

Source(s):BCGanalysis.

Note:Connectionchargeandnetworktariffsavingsarehighlymarket-dependent.

1.Cumulativepresentvalueofupto3-yearearlierenergizationoverassetlifetimeat6%WACC2.Thisreflectstheenergycostbenefitunderagivengridconnection.Inpractice,sizingBTMassetsand

operationalflexibilitytocopewithanon-firmconnectiontypicallyworsensthedatacenter'syearlybusinesscaserelativetoafirmalternative;inthecaseswestudied,though,theupsideoffasterconnectionoutweighsthisaddedcost.

…andcandelivermeasurablesystembenefits

Order-of-magnitudeNPVofbroadersystemvalueperGWgrid-positivedatacenterinNW-Europe

>

Highergridutilizationthroughloadgrowth

盘$1-2bn

Lowersnetworkbillsforallusers

Costrecoveryandreturnsforthegridgetsspreadovermore

demand,loweringper-unit

networkchargesforexistingusers

Broadereconomicand

strategicvalueofdatacenters

•Powerdemandthatcatalyzestheenergytransition,acceleratinglow-carbongenerationbuild-out

•Additionalsystemvaluefrom

monetizingidleBTMcapacityduring

periodsthedatacenterdoesn'tneedit

•Strategicinfrastructureand

sovereignty,shapingacountry’s

positioninanAI-enabledglobaleconomy

•Economicbenefitsrelatedtothe

constructionandoperationofdata

centers,digitalecosystemdevelopment,andcreationofadigitalexportindustry

Benefitsapplytodatacenterswherethedesignparametersonslide6canstillbeoptimized

Valuefromloadgrowthbeinggrid-positive

$0.5-1bn

>

Lesspeakdemandfromagrid-

positivedatacenterreduces

generationandgridbuild-outthatafirmlyconnected&operated

datacenterwouldtrigger

Avoidsnewgenerationandgridbuild

Source(s):ACERUICIndicators(Jul2023);UKDESNZ/GHD(Mar2025);CREGB2464/B2891;Elia/TenneT/RTE/BNetzAtarifffilings2024;Elia;BCG“ThePowerofCompute”;BCG“DataCentresasStrategic

Infrastructure:UnlockingValueforNZInc”;BCGanalysis.

8

Note:“Highergridutilizationthroughloadgrowth”:NPVover25years.Tariffspreadingbenefitisthedatacenter’sownnetworkpaymentunderacappedallowedrevenue,whichequalsthereductioninexistingusers’bills;order-of-magnitudeestimationsdoneforthetransmissiongridlevel.“Valuefromloadgrowthbeingpositive”:sumofavoidedpeakerbuildandgridreinforcementvs.firmlyconnectedandtraditionallyoperateddatacenters,assuming~50%ofDCnameplatecapacityavoidedpeak,generationcapexof$1,000-2,000/kW,avoidedgrid100–170kmOHL/UGCat110–150kV+transformer

upgradesandcivilworks.

Yetthis“win-win”isnotpossibleinmanycongestedareastoday

—makingitrealrequireschanges

Whyitoften

doesn’tworktoday

Situationtodayincongestedareas

Withouttriggeringmajorgrid

buildout,gridoperatorscantypicallyonlyofferhighlynon-firmconnections

ThatforcesaBYOC-typesetup

Firm,on-siteBTMgenerationneeded-operationalflexibility,batteriesand

renewablesalonerarelyclosethegap

ButBTMrollouthasitsownlimits

Siting/permittinglimits(e.g.,

emissionsornitrogenrules)andlongdeliverytimesforfirmgeneration

>

Asaresult,DCsoftenwaitto

connectfirm—leavingvalueonthetableforthem&thesystem

Somethinghastogive

Steersiting

Centralguidanceonwheredata

centersshouldsite—inareaswith

grid/generationheadroomorbuildout

And/or…

FacilitatespeedyBTMbuild

Policiesthatfast-tracksiting,

permitting,anddeliveryofthefirmBTMassetsneededtooperateon

highlynon-firmconnections

Wayforward

9

Strongcasetodevelopa

nationaldatacenterstrategy

Includinghowmanytotargetgiven

thebenefits,wheretositethem,howtoconnectthem,andwhatis

expectedintermsofBTMtonottriggernegativesystemeffects

Takingsuchasystem-perspective

approachparallelshowforexampleBelgiumidentifiedtheDoeland

Tihangenuclearsitesinthe1960s/70s,andhowothercountriesrun

theirnuclearsitingexercisestoday

Source(s):BCGanalysis.

Note:BYOC=Bringyourowncapacity.

1

Connection

siting

3

Operationalflexibility

2

Connection

design

4

Behind-the-meterassets

1.Locatedifferently:Putsnewlargeloadswherepoweris

available,reviveshowheavyindustrylocatedacenturyago

Newgenerationcoming

Co-locatedwithplanned

generation,sosupplyandloadarrivetogether

Industryretreating

Brownfieldsitesofclosingplants,inheritingconnectionand

freedcapacity

Alignedwithgridbuild-out

Timedandplacedtomatch

plannednetworkexpansion,notforceitearly

1Whatgrid-friendlysitingmeans

Poweralreadyinsurplus

Whereexcessgenerationexistsandexistingcurtailmentwouldbenefitfromadditionalload

MODERATE

Agentic&reasoning

Sometolerance—regionalsitingworks

HARDER

Real-time,interactiveinference

Latency-critical—muststaynearusers

2Thetrade-offfordatacenters:locationforlatency

Training&batchinference

EASIER

Latency-tolerant—runwhereverpowerischeap

Aluminumsmelters:thedatacentersoftheindustrialera

Vast,power-hungryloadsthatlocatedwhereverpowerwascheapandcaptive,oftenhydropower:e.g.,atNiagaraFalls(1895),at

ShawiniganFalls(1901),andinBellBay(1955)

Smeltersareclusteredatcheap“baseload”power:global

electricitymix~57%coal,~31%hydropower,~10%naturalgas

3Demandmovesbacktothepower—asheavyindustrydidinthepast

Beforelong-distancetransmissionbecameviableandreliable,thecentrallogicofindustrialsitingwassimple:industrygoestoenergy.Cheap,abundant,captivepowershapedlargeloadlocations.Whilethatlogicdisappearedwiththewidespread

availabilityofgrids,thereisaflashbacktothatperiodasunlimitedgridavailabilityabletoconnectwhateveror

whereverisnotanymorefeasibleoraffordable

Source(s):EUJointResearchCentre;BCGanalysis.10

2

1

3

4

Connection

siting

Operationalflexibility

Connection

design

Behind-the-meterassets

2.Connectnon-firm:Makesdatacentersmoregrid-positiveand

allowstoconnectfaster,butcreatescompute-at-risk

Annualshareofcomputedemandserved

Illustrativeforadatacenterwithoutbehind-the-meterassetsorloadshifting

Non-firm

Flexibleaccesscanreducetime-to-powerfrom5-10+yearsto2-4yearsbyloweringtheneedfor

(major)gridreinforcement

Withoutmitigation,thecomputegapcanbematerial:forexample,a50%non-firmconnectioncouldleaveevenupto8%ofannual

computedemandunmetifactivated30%oftheyear

Each1%ofunmetcompute

demanddestroys~1.5-2%ofprofit:fixedcostsdon'tfall

whenrevenuedoes,making

evensmallreliability

improvementshighlyvaluable

Firm100%

98-99%

96-97%

95-96%

Upto8%

92-93%

0%

5%

10%

15%

30%

Interruptionfrequency

5-10+years

2-4years

Timetopower

11

Source(s):Expertinterviews;BCG'sDCBTMOptimizer;BCGanalysis.

Note:Assumes65-78%utilizationrateofinstalledcomputecapacityandfornon-firmconnections50%flexibleand50%firm.

2

1

3

4

Connection

siting

Operationalflexibility

Connection

design

Behind-the-meterassets

Capability

Realtodayandexpectedtogrow

Shareofcomputethatisflexibleisexpectedtoincrease

•Googlestartedtopricebyreliabilitytier:guaranteedserviceatpremium,interruptible“sheddable”computeatadiscountwithitsGemini“Flex”tierrunning~50%belowstandardpricing

•Buyersincreasinglyconsidervariablelatencyandbest-effortdeliveryforalowerprice,lettingprovidersrunjobswhencomputeiseasier

•Thesetierstrackcomputesupplyanddemand;linkingcomputepricetogridconditions,powerpricesorcarbonistheemergingnextstep

Flexibility

Training/fine-turning

Yes

Yes.●

High

Batch/asyncinference

Yes(<24h)

Yes.●

●High

Agentic/reasoning

Within

minutes

Yes.●

Moderate

3.Flexibilizeload:Possibletodaybutlimited,expectedtogrow

Mechanism

Howtheloadflexes

Type

Availabilitytoday

Description

Time

Space

Virtual

Movecomputeintime,e.g.,defertrainingandbatch

inferencetooff-peak,lower-pricehours

Routeloadacrosssitesor

regionswithgridheadroom.Requiresmulti-region

orchestrationwithindataresidencybarriers

Don’tmovecompute,

butsourceflexibilityfrom

aneighboringflexible

(industrial)loadthatcurtailsondatacenter’sbehalf

Emerging

Easily-deferrable

shareshrinksasreal-timeinferencegrows

Frontier

OO

Real-timeinferencecan’tchangeregions

Frontier

OO

Worksforany

workload;largelyunproven

Source(s):Reuters;EmeraldAI;Nvidia;EPRI;SRPPhoenixdemonstrationatanOraclefacility(2025);DukeEnergy;Expertinterviews;BCGanalysis.

Workload

Canwait?

Pause?

OOLow

No

No

Real-timeinteractive

12

2

1

3

4

Connection

siting

Operationalflexibility

Connection

design

Behind-the-meterassets

4.InstallBTMassets:Operationalflexibilityaloneistypically

Annualshareofcomputedemandnotmet

Illustrativeforadatacenterwithnon-firmconnection:50%capacityreductionduring10%oftheyear

3-4%

1%

3%

1-2%

1%

1%

0%

Loadflexibility

BTMassets

√

insufficienttoclosethegap,behind-the-meterassetsareneeded

Undercurrenttechnical

capabilities,DCloadflexibility

cantypicallyreduceunmet

demandbyonly~20-60%,butthismightimproveovertimeasDC

operatorsfurtherinnovate1

Effectivenessvariesbyfacility

type:trainingworkloadsusually

offerthemostflexibility,while

(certaintypesof)inferenceislessflexiblebecauseofreal-time

requirements

BTMassetssuchasbatteriesbutespeciallygasturbinesmakeitpossibleforDCstoacceptnon-firmconnectionswhilefully

servingcomputedemand

Source(s):BCG'sDCBTMOptimizer;BCGanalysis.

13

Note:Excludestime-sensitivecompute.

1.Evenwithininferenceworkloadsflexibilityislikelytowidenovertimeasservicetiersandworkloadsegmentationbecomemoremature.

4.InstallBTMassets:Whatdatacenterscanputbehindthemeter

Gasturbines

Firmgeneration

Efficient,fast-starting,andcanrunforextendedperiods

Reciprocating/dieselengines

Fasteststart,engine-based(diesel,gas),andmodular

Fuelcells

Clean,quiet,easilysiteable,buthighcostandlimitedscaletoday

On-sitesolarPV

Cheapestcleanenergy,but

Variablegeneration

intermittentandland-hungry

Batteries(e.g.,lithium-ion)

Storage

Fast-responding,modular,andforshortduration(hours);proventechnology,sharplydecreasingcosts

On-sitewind

Low-costintermittentcleanenergywheresite’snaturalconditionsallow;rarelyviableonspace-constrainedDCcampus

Emergingstoragetechnologies

Couldallowforlong(er)durations;butunprovenatscale

Fuelstorage

On-sitefuelbuffer

Gaspipelineconnection

Costefficientfueldelivery

Connectiveinfra

Asnon-firmelectricityconnectionstypicallyleaddatacenterstorelyonfirm(gas-based)BTMgeneration,datacenterbuild-outcancreatemeaningful

newdemandonthegasgridtoo—notjusttheelectricitygrid—withnewconnectionsandpotentiallyadditionalinfrastructureinvestmentrequired

Gridconnection

Firmorflexiblelinktothepowergrid

14

Source(s):BCGanalysis.

4.InstallBTMassets:SixfactorsdeterminetheoptimalBTMstack

HowmuchBTM

Firmerconnection:

Gridcarriestheload,minimalBTMneeded

Non-firmconnection:

BTMrequiredtoguaranteeuninterruptedoperations

Firmnessofgridconnection

Inherentloadflexibility

Highlyflexibleload:

LessBTMrequiredtocopewithnon-firmconnectionagreements

Mostlyinflexibletime-sensitiveload:

MoreBTMrequiredtoensuretime-sensitiveloadcanbemet

WhichBTMmix

Physicalsiteconstraints

Denseorconstrainedsetting:

Favorsbatterystorage;difficulttoacceptnon-firmconnection

Fewconstraints:

Enableson-sitegeneration;easiertoacceptnon-firmconnection

Assetdeliveryspeed

Longdeliverytimelines:

Slow-deployassetsareruledoutiftheybecometheconstraint

Fastdelivery:

OptimalBTMmixissetpurelybyrelativeeconomics

Gasfuelprices

Highgasprices:

Batteriesandonsiterenewableswinonlevelizedcostbasis

Lowgasprices:

Onsitegenerationmoreeconomical

Batterystoragecosttrajectory

Strongcostdecreases:

MorebatteriesinBTMassetmix,overtakinggenerators

15

Littlecostdecrease:

MoregasgenerationtocarryBTMassetmix

Source(s):AuroraEnergyResearch;EIA;TradingEconomics;BCG'sDCBTMOptimizer;BCGanalysis.

Note:Carbonandsustainabilitycommitments,whileimportanttomanyoperators,aretreatedasasecond-orderpriorityinthisframeworkgiventheprimacyofspeed-to-powertomanyoperators,withsecuringadequateBTMcapacitytocopewithnon-firmgridconnectionsoroff-gridsetupstakingprecedence—decarbonizationofthatBTMstackconsideredasasubsequentoptimization.

Result:Operationalflexibility&BTMassetsallowdatacentersto

reducegridstressduringcongestion&systempeaks

HigherflexibilityLowerflexibility

Deltagridimport(MW)1

DCwithhighloadflexDCwithmediumloadflexDCwithlowloadflex

Lowerflexibility

Hourofday

20

15

10

5

Computeflexibility

Hourofday

20

15

10

5

Compute

flexibility+Batteries

Hourofday

20

15

10

5

Compute

Higherflexibility

160120180240300360

160120180240300360160120180240300360

16

flexibility+Batteries+firmBTMgeneration

DayoftheyearDayoftheyearDayoftheyear

Source:BCG'sDCBTMOptimizer.

1.BaselineisthescenarioinwhichDChasafirmgridconnection,anddoesnotbenefitfromcomputeflexibilitynorBTMassets.

Result:Thisaddscoststothedatacenter’spowersupply,butin

manycasestheirspeed-to-powerbenefitsoutweighthesecosts

Cumulativepresentvalueofearlierenergizationvianon-firmgridconnection

Illustrativefora150MWAIinferencedatacenterinNW-Europein2030,in$M

Non-firmconnectionsbring

energizationforwardby>1-3

years,unlockingprofitthatwouldotherwisebedeferred

OperationalflexibilityandBTMassetsensurefullcompute

demandcoverage

Thisprizedependsoncompute

revenue,butevenatlowerlevelsthebusinesscasewouldhold

Addsrealoperationalcomplexity:orchestratingBTMassetsagainstgridsignals,managingoperationalflexibilitywithoutbreachingSLAs,sitingandsecuringon-siteBTM

capacityforon-timeenergization

Connectionyear

-12

1,280

-42

3yearsearlier

-8

828

-40

2yearsearlier

-4

402

-37

1yearearlier

AdditionalprofitsBTMcapexlifetimespreadBTMcapexearlypayback

Source(s):BCG'sDCBTMOptimizer;BCGanalysis.

17

Note:ProfitsmeasuredasEBITDA,includingenergyopex.BTMcapexbasedonincrementalBTMcapacityversusafirmDCwithBTMoptimization,withassetssizedtobothcloseunmetdemandandminimize