bcg -为什么大多数首席执行官在营销新算法测试中失利 Why Most CEOs Are Failing Marketings New Math Test

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MARKETINGANDSALES

WhyMostCEOsAreFailingMarketing’sNewMathTest

By

MarkAbraham

,J

essicaApotheker

,

YotamAriav

,

RobertDerow

,and

LaurenWiener

ARTICLESEPTEMBER29,202612MINREAD

Oldeconomicassumptionshaveahabitofoutlivingtheconditionsthatcreatedthem.

Marketing

isaprimeexample.MostCEOsofconsumerpackagedgoods(CPG)companiesrecognizethattheeraofusingmassmediatogeneratemassdemandisover.Yetmanystillviewtheirmarketing

budgetsthroughthelensofthatbygoneera,whensizevirtuallyguaranteedmarketshare,andleaderssimplyaccepted,oftenwithouthardevidence,thatthemoneytheyspentonmarketingwasactuallydeliveringareturn.

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Thatblindfaithisnowuntenable.

Looknofurtherthanthebreakfastaisle

.Small,insurgent

brandsthatmovedswiftlytocapitalizeonchangingconsumertastesforcerealsandgranolabarssawtheirmarketshareleap10.8percentagepointsbetween2021and2025,whileincumbent

brandslostmorethan12percentagepoints.

Thehumblegranolabarisjustoneexampleofhowabigmarketingbudgetandsheerscalenolongerguaranteegrowth.Todefendandincreasemarketshare,

CPG

CEOsmustensuretheir

marketingfunctionevolvesaseconomic,competitive,andemergingtechnologyforcesconvergetorapidlyreshapeconsumerbehaviors.

MorethanhalfofGenZandMillennialconsumersandover40%ofthose45orolderresearch

andcompareoptionsbeforemakingapurchase,

accordingtoBCGsurveys

.Thepathwaystheyfollowtopurchasingdecisionsarealsoproliferating,from

fivetouchpointsadecadeagotomore

than15today

—adramaticfragmentationthatdemandsfarmorecontenttoservice.

AI

isdramaticallyacceleratingtheseshifts.LargeLanguageModels(LLMs)giveconsumers

powerfulnewtoolstoresearch,scrutinize,andcomparebrands,whileanswerengineoptimization(AEO)andgenerativeengineoptimization(GEO)increasinglydeterminewhichCPGbrandsgain

visibility.Thevelocityofchangeisstaggering.IntheyearendingJuly2026,LLMsearchtraffic

surgednearly150%,withmuchofthatgrowthconcentratedinthelastfivemonthsofthatperiod.

Butthesametechnologiesrewritingmarketing’seconomicequationalsogiveCPGbrandsnewtoolstotiltthebalanceintheirfavor.

Agenticmarketing

candramaticallylowerthecostof

creatingcontentandoperatingacrossanexpandingarrayofchannels,compresscampaigncycles,sharpenresourceallocation,enhancepersonalization,andhelpcompaniesinnovatefasterandsmartertodrivegrowth.

Small,insurgent,agenticAI-nativebrandslikeDavidProteinorPoppiarescalingatlightningspeedwithleanteamsandgrabbingmarketshareintheprocess.(Seethesidebar“David

Protein’sandPoppi’sLessonforCPGGoliaths.”)

DavidProtein’sandPoppi’sLessonforCPGGoliaths

Sincelaunchingitsfirstproteinbarin2024,DavidProteinhasbecomeoneofthefastest-growingbrandsinitscategory,reaching$100millioninannualrecurringrevenueinoneyearandnationaldistributionintwo.AIistherocketfuel

propellingthatmomentum.ByembeddingAIinresearch,creativedevelopment,andmarketing,smallteamscandotheworkofmuchlargerones.For

example,DavidProteinhasproducedahugevolumeofsocialandlaunchcontentwithateamofjust10–20people,comparedwiththe50–100peopleabrandofitsscalemighthavetypicallydeployed.

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Poppitellsasimilarstory.Thebrandgrew38-foldinfouryearswhileusingAIto

bringmoremarketingworkin-house.Ratherthanrelyingonaproductionagency

andlargespecialistteams,PoppiusesAItostreamlineproduction,copywriting,

research,performanceoptimization,andmeasurement,witheachfunction

requiringjustonefull-timeemployee.

Incumbents,though,canbejustasnimbleandbringdecadesofaccumulatedintelligencetothering.Buttheymustputthatadvantagetoworkwithoutlosingcontrolofit.Appliedpoorly,AIcanlockcompaniesintotoday’stechnologieswhileerodingtheproprietaryknow-how,human

judgment,andautonomythatsetthemapart.

Appliedstrategically

,itcanamplifythosestrengthswhilepreservingbothhumanjudgmentandtheflexibilitytoadoptbettertechnologiesasthey

emerge.(Seethesidebar“TheAgenticAdvantageStartswithMeasurement.”)

TheAgenticAdvantageStartswithMeasurement

Itisnocoincidencethatleadingagenticmarketingorganizationsareprioritizing

measurement,supportedbyarobustintelligencelayer,asanearlyinvestment

priority.BycodifyingtheKPIsthatmatter,thewaytheymeasureimpact,aswell

astheirbrandguardrailsandoperationalrules,theycutdowncampaigncycle

timesand,importantly,democratizemeasurement.Oneentertainmentcompany

decreasedthetimetolaunchandmeasureacampaignby90%andtripled

ROI.Meanwhile,aglobalautoOEMsaw100%effectivenessgainswhilealso

increasingtheCFO’sconfidenceinthenumbers.

ForCEOs,theimplicationsofmarketing’sneweconomicsgowaybeyondgreaterproductivity.AI

givesthemsomethingtheyhavehistoricallylacked:greaterclarityonwhattheirmarketingdollarsareactuallyproducing,whichinvestmentsaredrivinggrowth,andwherethenextmarketingdollarspentislikelytogeneratethegreatestreturn.

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TheTrouble—andOpportunity

—withMarketingTribbles

OneofthemostmemorableepisodesofStarTrekinvolvesadorable,furrycreaturescalled

Tribblesthatreproduceatanabsurdrate.Astheymultiply,theyquicklyoverwhelmtheUSS

Enterprise,consumingfoodsuppliesandcausingallsortsofmayhem.Butthesamecreatures

alsoproveunexpectedlyusefulwhentheygivethecrewastrategicadvantageovertheirenemies.

AIistomarketingwhatTribblesweretotheStarTrekcrew:itintroducesnewchallengesbyacceleratingcomplexity,butitalsomakesthatcomplexitymoremanageableandeasiertotranslateintocompetitiveadvantage.

Thetroublestartswhenmarketershavetofeedanever-expandingwebofpathways.Atypical

CPGconsumerjourneytodaymayinvolvesearchingsocialmediasitesforinfluencerreviewsandrecommendations,askinganAIagenttocompareproductfeatures,prices,andRedditreviews,

andvisitingaphysicalstore,allbeforemakingasinglepurchase.Everyadditionalpathwayinthatjourneyputsadditionalstrainoneachmarketingdollar,dilutingreturnsasmoretouchpoints

requiremorecontentandmorespecializedexpertisetoservicethem.

Toputthisintoperspective,alarge-capCPGcompanythatusedtocreate500assetsayearmustnowcreatesomewhereontheorderoffivetosixmilliontomeetitscustomerswheretheylive.

Thisispreciselywhereyesterday’sassumptionsaboutmarketingeconomicscanleadCEOsto

value-erodingconclusions.Iftheylookonlyasfarastoday’sP&L,theymayseethatmarketing

costsaregoingupwhilegrowthisgoingdownandrespondbyslashingthemarketingbudget.Buttreatingmarketingasacosttocontainisanoutdatedmanagementreflexthatcoulddestroyitspotentialtobecomeagrowthenginefortheenterprise.

FourDynamicsChangingMarketing’sEquation

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Ratherthanslashmarketingbudgets,CEOsshouldinvestindevelopingAIcapabilitiesand

targetedexpertisetodramaticallylowerthecostofsomeactivitieswhilesubstantiallyincreasingreturnsonothers.Fourdynamicsrewritingthemarketingequationillustratewhy:

Contentvolumeisexplodingwhileunitcostsarecollapsing.Marketingdepartmentsmust

produceexponentiallymorecontentthaninyearspast.AIisturbochargingthisdemandbutalsoslashingthecostofsupplyingitbymakingitpossibletoproducetailoredcontentcheaplyonanindustrialscale.Forexample,ahighlycontextualizedandpersonalizedproductshotforabeautyitemthatcost$4toproducetwoyearsagonowcostsfourcents.

Humans,agents,andagenciesaredividingmarketingworkdifferently.InaworldawashinAI-

generatedcontent,theultimatecurrencyishumancreativityandjudgment.TogetthemostoutofpeoplewhiletappingtheindustrialscaleAIcangenerate,marketingmustmovehumansupthe

valuechain.Agentscanacceleratemarketerproductivity,creatingspacetoapplyhigher-value,future-readyhumanskills.Thatrequiresbeingdeliberateaboutwhichdecisionsagentscanownandwhichshouldremaininhumanhands,especiallywherebrandjudgment,strategictrade-offs,andaccountabilitymattermost.

RoughlyathirdofChiefMarketingOfficers(CMOs)inarecentBCGsurvey

arealreadypairingAIagentswithhumanoversightandredesigningworkflowsaroundthismodel.Thatmeansnomoresiloedspecialistsforemail,paidmedia,websites,andotherchannels.Instead,ahumanstrategistorchestratescampaignsend-to-end,whileAIagentsexecuteacrosscontentcreation,activation,andoptimization.

Asagentstakeonmore,whattheydrawonbecomesincreasinglyimportant.Companiesmustretaincontroloftheuniqueintelligencethatinformstheirmarketing,suchasbrandguardrails,strategicpriorities,accumulatedknowledge,andmarketers’tacitexpertise.Thechallengeistomakethatintelligenceavailabletoagentswithouttyingitsotightlytoanyonemodel,platform,orvendorthatitbecomesdifficulttoswitch.

Marketing’sredesignextendstoagenciesaswell.Companieswillstillneedthemforelite,

creativeworkandspecializedexpertise,suchasidentifyingtherightinfluencersandoptimizingcontentforLLMs.Incentivestructuresarealsobeingrecalibrated.Agenciesaremovingaway

fromcompensationbasedonapercentageofadspendandtowardvalue-basedmodelsthatallowthemandtheirclientstoshareAI-enabledproductivitygains.

Marketingdollarsaregeneratingdifferentreturns.Asthedynamicsbetweenpeople,content,

andagenciesshift,thefocusofmarketingbudgetschanges.Somecosts,notablycontentcreation,plummet,whileothersincrease:thinkapplications,cloudcomputing,andtokenspend.

Thisdemandsasharperviewofwheretoinvesteverymarketingdollartodrivegreaterreturns.AgenticAIcanacceleratetheROIofmediaandcustomeractivationbyimprovingthespeedandqualityofexecutionwhileloweringcosts.Forexample,agenticAIcanimproveROIthreefoldbyradicallyacceleratingcampaignspeedandquality,whileloweringcosts.

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ThatreframeshowCEOsassessthebudgettheirCMOsrequest.Thequestionisnolongersimplywhethertospendmoreorless,butwherethenextdollarwillgeneratethegreatestreturn.Tofindtheanswer,companieswillneedmeasurementtoolsthatcanguideallocationinrealtime,ratherthansimplytellingmarketerswhatworkedafterthefact.

AIischangingbothsidesofthegrowthequation.AIchangeswhatmarketerscanknowaboutconsumersandhowquicklytheycanturnthoseinsightsintogrowthwhilealsochanginghow

consumersdecidewhattobuy.

Marketingdepartmentsdoseethischangehappening.InBCG’sannualglobalsurveyof300

CMOs,nearlyallsaidAIwasdrivinganend-to-endtransformationoftheirfunction.But

morethan

two-thirdshadyettomovebeyondthebasics

.

Theyneedtogetmoving.AIcanhelpmarketersgettheirarmsaroundmultiplyingtouchpointstodevelopbetterpositioningandpersonalizedconsumerexperiences.Itcanalsohelpthem

innovatefasterandmoreefficientlybyidentifyingemergingtrendsearlierandevensignalingopportunitiestocreatenewservicesaroundCPGs.

Buttheinformationadvantagedoesnotbelongtomarketersalone.ConsumersalsohaveaccesstoAI,andtheyareincreasinglyusingit.

ArecentBCGsurveyof13,000consumersacross12

marketsglobally

foundthatnearlyathirdofshoppersuseAIsomewherealongtheirpurchasejourney—athreefoldincreaseinjust18months.Approximately20%useitroutinely,and13%ultimatelybuyproductstheAIrecommends.

Thishas

profoundimplicationsforhowCPGbrandsarefoundandjudged

.IfabrandisnotvisibleenoughtoLLMs,consumersincreasinglywon’tfindit.Butbeingfoundisonlyhalfthebattle.

LLMsdon’tmerelyrespondtoapromptwithashortlistofproducts;theyalsoevaluatethembydrawingonresourcesfromacrosstheweb.Thatincludesunflatteringreviewsandconversationsbrandsdon’tcontrol,whichcanunravelacarefullycraftedcampaignmessageiftheproduct

doesn’tliveuptothepromisesmarketingmade.

Fortunately,AIcanalsorevealwhichpromiseshavebeenbroken.Armedwiththeseinsights,marketerscancraftmorerobustnarrativesthatstanduptoscrutiny.Theycanalsoworkwithotherareasoftheenterprisetoclosegapsbetweenproductpromiseandperformance.

WhatTomorrow’sGrowthAsksofCEOsToday:FiveQuestionstoGuideTheirThinking

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It’snottheCEOs’jobtoredesignmarketing.Buttheydoneedasufficientgraspofthe

transformationtheirCMOisleadingtoensuretherightcapabilitiesarefunded,oldassumptionsarechallenged,andinvestmentsarefocusedwheretheycandrivethegreatestreturns.The

followingfivequestionscanhelpthemgetthere:

1.AreweusingAItospendlessorgrowmore?

LeadingorganizationsmakeboldchangestorealizeproductivitygainsfromAIandfundthejourney,buttheyalsofocusclearlyonthecapabilitiesthatultimatelydrivegrowth.

CEOsthereforemustdeterminewheretoinvesttogetthemostgrowthfromeverymarketingdollar.

2.Dowehaveatrustedwaytomeasuretheimpactofmarketing?

Supportingamarketingtransformationshouldnotbealeapoffaith.Theneweconomicsofmarketingshoulddelivermoreaccountability,notless.

Thegoalisnotsimplybetterreporting;it’susingAItobringtogetherfragmentedsignalsto

identifywhichinvestmentsaredrivingincrementalgrowthandtestwherethenextdollarcouldworkthehardest.

Thisdoescomewitharealitycheck.WhilemarketingROIwillbecomemoreknowable,itwill

neverbeperfectlyknowable.Forthisreason,noteverymarketingactivityshouldbeforcedintothesameROIcalculation.(Seethesidebar“Upper-FunnelBrandInvestmentCanandShouldBeMeasured.”)

Upper-FunnelBrandInvestmentCanandShouldBeMeasured

Upper-funnelbrandinvestmentcanandshouldbemeasured

,butagainst

leadingindicatorsoffuturepurchasingbehavior,suchasconsiderationand

mindshare.Mid-andlower-funnelspending,bycontrast,canincreasinglybe

measuredagainstsalesandconversion,wheremodernmarketingsciencecan

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connectinvestmenttooutcomesfarmoreprecisely.

Forcompaniesthathavenotalreadyestablishedameasurementfoundation,onecanbeputinplacequickly.CEOs,CFOs,andCMOscanalignoncoremeasurementsforgaugingbrandhealth—ascorecardspanningawareness,consideration,trialandconversion,salesandmarketing

share,andmarketingROI.Withinsixmonths,thatscorecardshouldbedeeplyembeddedintheday-to-dayoperationsofthefullmarketingorganization,withreal-timeinsightsandproactive

alertsenablingteamstooptimizecampaignsandmarketingactionswhiletheyarestillinmarket.

Importantly,whileagenciesandtechnologypartnersarecriticaltoexecutionintheageofAI,thiscontinuousmeasurementcapabilityshouldremainwithintheorganization.

3.Howarewereshapingmajorend-to-endprocessestocapturegreatervaluefromeverymarketingdollar?

ItisnotenoughtodeploypointsolutionsandAItoolsandcallitprogress.CapturingthefullvalueofAIwillrequirechangesthatcutacrosstraditionalprocessesandbudgetlines,asthetechnologybecomesembeddedinworkflowsandreshapestherolesofhumanswithinthem.

Companieswillneedtomakeexplicitchoicesaboutwhichdecisionsagentsown,whichremain

withhumans,andwherehumanoversightisessential.Thatwillrequirenewinternalcapabilities,ashiftinthetalentmixtowardmorescientists,evolvingagencyrelationships,andfarcloser

coordinationbetweenmarketingandtechnology.

TheCEOneedstounderstandhowthesepiecesfittogether.WhentheirCMOrequestsbudgetfornewAIinvestments,theCEOshouldweighitagainstpotentialAI-drivengainsacrossthe

organization,ratherthantreatitasastandaloneincreaseinmarketingspend.

4.Howarewebuildingunique

competitiveadvantagewithagentic

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marketingthatourcompetitorscannotreplicate?

TherightAIinvestmentscanhelpcompaniesknowmoreabouttheircustomersandactonthatknowledgesooner.ButadvantagecomesfromcombiningAIwithdecadesofaccumulated

institutionalknowledge,IP,andexperiencethatcompetitorscannoteasilyreplicate,whileensuringthoseproprietaryassetsremainfirmlyinthecompany’scontrol.

Forexample,alarge,globalCPGcompanybuiltaninsightsagentontopofitsrawdatato

generatecampaignbriefs.Initially,itsoutputswereonly50%accurate,littlebetterthanacointoss.Butafterthecompanycodifiedhowitsbestmarketersdevelopedbriefs,thequalitycheckstheyapplied,andhowtheyansweredkeyquestions,accuracyrosetomorethan90%.Thetoolisnowreliableenoughtosave3,000-plusmarketers’weeksofefforteachyear,whileenabling

everyonetoproducebriefsatthelevelofthecompany’stoptalent.

5.Areweinvestinginthecustomer

journeythat’semerging,ortheonewealreadyknow?

Leading-edgemarketingfunctionstodaywillalreadybestructuringproductdatasoAIsystemscaneasilyunderstandandsurfaceit,optimizingcontenttoprovideclear,extractableanswersandensuringitisauthoritativeenoughforLLMstoretrieve,cite,andrecommend.Theywillalsobelayingthefoundationforagenticcommerce,whereanAIagentcanspanthejourneyfrom

productdiscoverythroughpurchaseonauser’sbehalf.

Fordecades,CEOscouldaffordtotakemarketing’sreturnslargelyonfaith.Nowtheycan’t,nordotheyneedto.AIischangingnotonlywhatmarketingcandobuthowclearlycompaniescansee

whatisdrivinggrowthandwheremarketingdollarscandeliverthegreatestreturns.ButcapturingthatopportunitywillrequireCEOstojettisonoldassumptionsaboutmarketingasacostcenterandstartbuildingitintotheenterprise’snextgrowthengine—onethatputsAItoworkatscale

withoutsurrenderingtheuniqueintelligenceandhumanjudgmentthatgivethecompanyitsedge.

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