波士顿咨询-人工智能如何重塑科技行业的经济格局 How AI Is Reshaping the Economics of Technology

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TECHFUNCTION

HowAIIsReshapingtheEconomicsof

Technology

By

MichaelGrebe

,

JoppeBijlsma

,

DjonKleine

,

VladimirLukic

,

DanielBaker

,

Eike

Kock

,JuusoSoininen,

MarcRomanFranke

,

SabineDöschl

,andFelixSippel

ARTICLEOCTOBER02,202615MINREAD

AIdemandisdrivinguptechnologycostsfast.Serverpricesarepeakingat80%above2025rates1andsoftwareinflationisrunningfourtofivetimesthemarketrate.2Meanwhile,averagetoken

costsforthetopUSlargelanguagemodels(LLMs)rosefrombelow$5permillionatthestartof2025to$20permillionin20263—apoint-in-timesnapshotofamarketwheremodelmixand

pricingcontinuetochangerapidly.Price,however,isonlypartofthestory;asadoptionaccelerates,tokenvolumebecomesanequallyimportantcostdriver.

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Thisistheeraoftoken-basedcompetition(seearticle“

TheEraofToken-BasedCompetitionIs

Here

”),anditisonlyaddingtotheCIO’sresponsibilities.Thequestionisnolongeronlyhowmuchtechnologycostsbutalsohowmuchbusinessvaluetheintelligencebeingpurchasedgenerates

(seearticle“

ReturnonAI:WhatCEOsNeedtoKnowAbouttheTrueCostofArtificial

Intelligence

”).Oncost,theanswerhasbeenstable:from2010to2025,ITbudgetsaveraged2.8%to3.7%ofrevenueacrossindustries(seearticle“

HowCIOsCanProvetheValueofTechnologyin

theAgeofAI

”).AInowteststhatstabilitybycallingonCIOs—andonCDOs,CTOs,andother

seniortechnologyleaders—togovernenterpriseAIdemandandtietechnologyinvestmenttobusinessvalue.

ThisarticleexamineshowAIisreshapingenterprisetechnologyeconomics:whichcostelementsgrow,whichdecline,andhowtotalspendingislikelytoevolve.Ourscenario-basedmodel

combinestwoeffectsacrosslow,medium,andhighAIadoptionscenarios—theproductivityAI

createsinsidethe

Tech/ITfunction

andthedemanditcreatesinthebusiness.OurmodelingisnotfocusedonAI-nativecompaniesbutonorganizationsthatareprogressivelyembeddingAIinto

existingoperations.

TheBudgetDynamicsofAI

AImovestechnologycostsinthreedirectionsatonce.ItraisesITcostinabsolutetermsthroughnewplatforms,data,integration,governance,licenses,andtokens.ItlowersITcostbymakingtheTech/ITfunctionmoreproductive.AnditaddsAIspendoutsideTech/ITinbusinessandsupport

functionsandincreasinglyinproductITandoperationaltechnologywhereAIisbuiltintowhatacompanysells.Wherethecost-to-incomeratiolandsdependsonhowmucheachcostlever

moves,andonAI’simpactonrevenue.

Acompany’sstartingpointmattersasmuchasitsAIambition.OrganizationswithlargeenablingfunctionsandlowTech/ITintensity,suchasindustrialgoodsandtransport,mustplanforheavybusiness-drivendemandevenasAIimprovesTech/ITproductivity.Thosewithhighintensityanddigitallyenabledoperations—suchasmediaanddigitalservices,financialservices,and

telecommunications—havealargercostbasetoworkonandmoreroomtocaptureAIsavings.Theirchallengeisreinvestingthosesavingsintogrowth.

CompaniesfundAIindifferentways.SometreatitaspartoftheITbudget,whileothersallocateit,one-timeandrecurring,tothebusinessfunctionsthatcapturethebenefit—forexample,whenAIreplacespersonnelcostinsalesoroperations.Hybridmodelsarealsocommon.ThismattersbecausetheformalITbudgetcapturesonlypartofanenterprise’stechnologyspending.

WhileITspendinghasremainedrelativelystableasashareofrevenueoverthepast15years,shadowIT(suchastechnologyspendinginregions,markets,andbusinessfunctionsoutsidethe

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centralITbudget)haslongaddedtothetotal.AInowappearstobeexpandingthetechnology

footprintfurther,withmuchofthenewinvestmentoccurringoutsideTech/IT.OurAppliedAI2026surveyindicatesthescaleoftheshift:respondentsreportedthatAI’sshareoftheITbudgethasmorethantripled,from5%to17%.ThesurveyalsosuggeststhatAIspendingoutsidetheTech/ITbudgetisrisingsignificantlyascompaniesmovefrompilotstoenterprise-wideprograms.Basedonrespondents’estimates,companiesspendonaverage3.3%ofrevenueonenterpriseITplus2.8%ofrevenueonAIinitiativesfundedoutsidetheTech/ITbudget.Butthatsplitvarieswidelybyindustry.

AsAIworkflowsscaleintocoreoperations,theircosts—dataplatforms,modeloperations,

integration,governance—belongintheenterprisetechnologystack,wherereliability,security,andcostcontrolmustbeprotected.

AIagents

areenterpriseassetstoo,andneedthesamevisibility,governance,andlifecyclemanagementasanyotherpartoftheestate.

NotallAIspendisthesame,anditshouldnotbejudgedthesameway.One-timecosts,recurringcosts,andproductiontokenslandindifferentplacesintheP&L:tokensthatbuildreusable

capabilityareacapitalexpense,tokensthatruninternalworkareanoperatingexpense,and

tokensinsideaproductacustomerpaysforarepartofthecostofgoodssold(seearticle“

Return

onAI:HowCFOsandCIOsCanManagetheTokenMeter

”).

WhatunifiesthemisthereturnonAI(RoAI).ForaCIO,thepracticaltestissimple.EveryscaledAIinvestmentneedsanexplicitvaluethesisandevidenceappropriatetoitspurpose:banked

efficiency,measurablegrowth,orstagedstrategicvalue.Ifitrepeatedlyfailsthattest,theinvestmentshouldberescopedorstopped.

ModelingHowAIWillReshapeEnterpriseTechnologyCost

TounderstandhowthesedynamicsaffecttotalITcost,webuiltascenario-basedmodelthat

assessesninehigh-valueAIareas,sevenofwhichsitinsideTech/ITandshareonegoal,whichistoraisetheproductivityofinternaltechnologywork:

Softwaredevelopmentlifecycle(SDLC).AIimprovescoding,testing,anddocumentation;speedsupdelivery;andreducesrework.

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Legacymigration.LegacyanalysisandcodeconversionareenhancedwithAItospeedupmodernization.

IToperations.RunoperationsbenefitfromAI-enabledmonitoring,triage,andremediation.

Applicationmanagement.Smarterdiagnosis,supportresolution,andproactivemaintenanceareenabledbyAI.

EnterpriseResourcePlanning(ERP)transformation.Analysis,design,migration,andtestingaresupportedbyAItoacceleratedelivery.

Techsourcing.Spendinganalysis,supplierinsight,andnegotiationpreparationareimprovedwithAI.

ITservice-deskautomation.Ticketintake,knowledgeretrieval,androutineresolutionareautomatedwithAI.

Twohigh-valueAIareassitinthebusiness:usingAIinsupportfunctionssuchasfinance,HR,andlegaltoreduceworkforcecostandusingAItogrowrevenuethroughpersonalization,pricing,andnewbusinessmodels.

Theassumptionsbehindthemodelareexplicit.Wemodelafive-yearhorizon,withsavingsand

costsfullyrampedbyyearthree.One-timeAIimplementationcostisphasedoverthefirsttwo

years,andeachoftheninehigh-valueareascarriesitsowncostandsavingsprofile.TogethertheyformtheenterpriseAIone-timeandruncosts.Returnsdifferbyscenario:thehighertherateof

adoption,thelargerboththeinvestmentandthebenefit.WeassumebaselinegrowthwithoutAIofroughly6%nominallyeachyear—3%organicrevenuegrowthcompoundedwitharound3%

priceinflation.WealsoassumeanevolutionaryapproachtoAIadoptionratherthanagreenfieldone.Formoreonthemodel,seeourMethodologysidebar.

Methodology

OurmodelcalculatesAIcostandsavingsforeachhigh-valueareaseparatelyandassignsbothtothespecificpartsoftheITbudgettheyaffect:internalstaffby

discipline,contractors,softwareandtokenspend,infrastructureandhosting,hardware,andmanagedservices.Itthereforeshowsnotonlyhowmuch

technologycostmovesbutalsowhere.

Threeinputsdrivetheongoingcost:howmanystaffaregivenAItoolsand

actuallyusethem,howmuchroutineworkisautomated,andhowmanyAIusecasesrunineachfunction.Fromthesewebuildupsixcostlines:AIlicenses(licensedstaff×annualprice),tokencostforstaffuse(staffwithAI×token

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volume×tokenprice),tokencostforagentuse(rolesautomated×tokenvolume

×tokenprice),hostingtheplatform,maintainingandrefreshingthemodels,and

theAIspecialistseachusecaseneeds.

Theone-timecostofbuildingAIworksinasimilarway.Multiplyingthenumberof

usecasestobuildtimestheamountofeffortperusecasegivesthesizeofthe

buildteam.Thatsetsthecostoflabor,platformsanddata,andthetokens

consumedwhilebuilding—withtraining,changemanagement,andprogram

governancescaledfromthose.Formodelingpurposes,weassumeallAI-related

spendingendsupinIT’scost-to-incomeratio,regardlessofwhetheritisbooked

there.

Onecaveatiscentral:themodelassumesthatAIproductivitygainsinside

Tech/ITarerealized,meaningfreedcapacityleavesthecostbaseratherthan

beingabsorbedelsewhere.Experiencesaysthatthisisthehardpart,since

roughly10%ofvaluecomesfromtechnology,20%fromdataandalgorithms,and

70%fromchangestopeople,process,andoperatingmodel.Toolingalonerarely

bendsthecostcurve;withoutthosechanges,savingsweakenwhiledemand

arrivesonschedule.

Weappliedthemodeltotwoexemplarcompanies:anindustrialgoodscompanyrepresentinglowerTech/ITintensityandamediaanddigitalservicescompanyrepresentinghigherintensity.Eachcompany’ssize,revenue,andoperatingmodeldiffered,sooutcomeswerevaried.

HighlightsfortheIndustrialGoodsCompany

TheindustrialgoodscompanyhascomparativelylowTech/ITintensity,alargeoperationaland

support-functionfootprint,a$1.0billionITcostbaseline,andanITcost-to-incomeratioof2.6%.Modelassumptionsaredescribedabove,with2%annualtraditionalITcoststreamlining(for

example,bycapturingAIbenefitsalsoinexternalcontracts)andone-timeAIinvestmentphasedoverthefirsttwoyears.

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Whileabsolutetechnologyspendrises,thecost-to-incomeratiodoesnotnecessarilyfollow

becauseAIalsoliftsrevenue.WheretheTech/ITcost-to-incomeratio(ITCIR)landsdependsontheproductivityAIdeliversinsideTech/IT,thepaceofAIadoptioninthebusiness,andthe

revenueAIgenerates.ITCIRprovidesameasureoftechnologyaffordabilityrelativetorevenue;theultimatetestofAIeconomics,however,istheenterprisevaluecreated.Threescenariosshowthepattern:(SeeExhibit1.)

ApplyingAIinbusinesshighandTech/ITsidehighkeepsITCIRat2.6%.WithhighadoptioninboththebusinessandTech/IT,AIproductivityof$143millionoffsetsmostofthe$194

millionthatvolumeandinflationadd,holdingtheTech/ITbudget3%belowbaselineat$973million.BusinessAIthenadds$277millionofTech/ITruncost,takingyear-threespendto

$1.25billion.Revenuereaches$48.4billionincludingAIuplift,sothecost-to-incomeratioholdsatits2.6%startinglevel.

ApplyingAIinbusinesslowandinTech/IThighreducesITCIRto2.2%.WithhighadoptioninTech/ITandlowadoptioninthebusiness,theratioimprovesto2.2%.TheTech/ITbudgetfalls1%to$985millionandtotalspendreaches$1.06billion,against$1.0billiontoday.

ApplyingAIinbusinesshighandinTech/ITlowincreasesITCIRto2.8%.WithlowadoptioninTech/ITandhighadoptioninbusiness,theratiorisesto2.8%,around8%abovethe2.6%baseline.Totalspendreaches$1.34billion:thebusinessadds$277millionofAIruncost

whiletheTech/ITfunctiondeliverslimitedproductivityofitsown.

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InsidetheTech/ITfunction,thelargestproductivitygainscomefromtheproductandsoftwaredevelopmentlifecycle(PDLC/SDLC),ERPtransformation,andapplicationmanagement.Thesearethebiggestvaluepools,andtheyscalewithadoption.

Thepatternisconsistentacrossscenarios.WhenTech/ITtransformsatleastasfastasthe

businessadoptsAI,productivitygainswithinTech/ITcanpartiallyoffsettheadditionaltechnologycostcreatedby

enterpriseAIdemand

.Buttheyareonlyonepartoftheequation:theoverall

economicsalsodependonwhetherproductivitygainsinthebusinessarebankedandwhetherAIgeneratesincrementalrevenue.Withoutthosebenefits,higherAIadoptioncanleavethe

enterprisewithastructurallyhighertechnologycostbase.

Thelessonfromthisindustrialgoodsexampleisclear:CIOsshouldnotviewAIasacost-reductionprogram.AIfundamentallychangestheeconomicsandcompositionofenterprisetechnology

spending.ProductivitygainswithinTech/ITcanhelpfundenterpriseAIadoption,butsustainableeconomicsultimatelydependonconvertingAIinvestmentacrosstheenterpriseintobanked

productivity,revenuegrowth,orboth.

HighlightsfortheMedia&DigitalServicesCompany

ThemediaanddigitalservicescompanyhasahighTech/ITintensity,theoperatingmodelis

digital-first,theITbaselineis$150million,andthecost-to-incomeratio7.7%.Technologyhereisnotasupportfunctionbutacoreelementofthebusiness,whichiswhytheratiostartshigher.

Othermodelassumptionsareunchanged.(SeeExhibit2.)

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Astechnologyrepresentsamuchlargershareofthecostbase,Tech/ITproductivitycreatesaparticularlypowerfulleverforoffsettingtheadditionalcostofenterpriseAIadoption.Threescenariosillustratethepattern:

HighAIadoptioninbothbusinessandTech/ITreducesITCIRto6.7%.Withhighadoptiononbothsides,AIproductivityof$33millionmorethanoffsetsthe$29millionaddedby

volumeandinflation.Togetherwith$10millionintraditionalITcostsavings,thisreducestheyear-threeTech/ITfunctionbudgetby9%,to$136million.BusinessAIadds$25millioninruncost,takingtotalspendingto$161million.Withrevenueincreasingto$2.4billion,ITCIRfallsfrom7.7%to6.7%.

HighAIadoptioninTech/ITandlowadoptioninthebusinessreducesITCIRfurther,to

6.1%.WhenTech/ITtransformationrunsaheadofbusinessadoption,theTech/ITfunction

capturesthesamestrongproductivitygains,reducingitsbudgetby9%,to$137million.WithbusinessAIaddingonly$7millioninruncost,totalspendingreaches$144million.The

combinationoflowertechnologyspendingandhigherrevenuebringsITCIRdownto6.1%,thelowestratioacrossthethreescenarios.

HighAIadoptioninthebusinessandlowadoptioninTech/ITkeepsITCIRclosetoinitiallevel,at7.5%.WhenbusinessadoptionrunsaheadofTech/ITtransformation,lowerinternalAIproductivityof$13millionisinsufficienttooffsetvolumeandinflation,leavingtheTech/ITfunctionbudget3%abovebaseline,at$155million.BusinessAIaddsanother$25millioninruncost,takingtotalspendingto$180million.However,theassociatedrevenueupliftto$2.4billionlargelyabsorbstheadditionalspending,keepingITCIRat7.5%,closetoits7.7%

startingpoint.

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ForCIOs,thesetwoexamplesrevealacriticalinsight:thesameAIproductivitylogiccanproduceoppositeresults.Inthemediacompany,itcutstheTech/ITbudgetwellbelowbaseline,whileinindustrialgoods,itonlyoffsetsgrowthandinflationbecauselessofthecostbaseisaddressablerelativetothegrowthitmustcarry.Wheretechnologyisthebusiness,revenueupliftcanbe

sufficienttokeeptheITCIRbroadlyintactevenifAIadoptionisunbalanced.AlowerITCIRisthereforenotnecessarilythebetteroutcome;theultimatetestiswhethertheadditionalAIinvestmentcreatesenterprisevalue.

HowCIOsMustManagetheNewEconomicsofTechnology

Astheeconomicsofenterprisetechnologyenteranewera,theCIO’smandatechanges.Theroleismovingfromrunningthetechnologyfunctiontoorchestratingenterprise-wideAIcapability(aswealsodiscussinthearticle“WhyWeStillNeedaCIOintheAI-FirstEra”).Alongsidethat,CIOsbecomestewardsoftechnologyeconomics,makingsureAIinvestmentscreatesustainable

businessvalueratherthansimplyincreasespending.

WebelievethatthisrequiresCIOstofocusonthreepriorities.

CreatefulltransparencyoverenterprisetechnologyandAIspend.CIOsshouldestablishasingleviewoftechnologyandAIspendingacrosstheenterprise—notjustwhatsitswithintheformal

Tech/ITbudget.ThatmeansbringingtogethercoreITspending;shadowITinbusinessunits,

regions,andmarkets;andtherapidlygrowingAIinvestmentsmadeoutsideTech/IT.This

transparencyshouldextendfromone-timeinvestmentsandrecurringcoststotoken

consumptionandrealizedbenefits,withclearownershipforeverymaterialworkflow.AsAI

spendingbecomesincreasinglydistributedacrosstheorganization,thisenterprise-wideviewisessentialnotonlytocontrolcostbutalsotomanagethetechnologycomplexitythatcomeswithit.

ApplyAIwithinTech/ITtohelpfundenterpriseAI.CIOsshouldleadbyexample,applyingAItothelargestvaluepoolswithintheirownfunctiontodelivermeasurableproductivitygainsand

offsetpartofthegrowingcostofenterpriseAIdemand.Theyshouldoptimizeforreturn,nottokenconsumption.RoAI—economicreturndividedbythecombinedcostofhumanintelligenceand

tokens—shiftsthefocusfromAIspendtocostpersuccessfuloutcome.Measuredthisway,thecheapestmodelisoftennotthecheapestanswer.Amorecapablemodelthatcompletesataskonthefirstattemptcancostlessoverallthanasmalleronethatretries,escalates,orproducesworkahumanhastoredo.Thesamelogicappliestoconsumption.TotalspenddependsonthescaleandintensityofAIadoption,thecontextagentscarrythrougheachloop,andthemodelsteamsuse.ThatmakesAIeconomicsanarchitectureandaccountabilityquestion,notsimplya

©2026BostonConsultingGroup10

procurementone.CIOsshouldusethislenstocontinuouslyoptimizehowpeopleandAIworktogether.

OwntheenterpriseAIeconomics.AsAIembedsacrosstheenterprise,CIOsmustkeep

technologyandAIinvestmentalignedwithbusinessvalue,measuredbycostperoutcomeratherthanactivity.ThatmeansdirectingAIandtokenspendingtowardtheopportunitieswiththe

strongestvaluepotentialratherthansimplyconstrainingconsumption.Theyalsobecome

stewardsoftheemerging“synthetic”P&L—theeconomicsofaworkforcemadeupofpeopleandAIagents.Thatmeansdesigningtheoperatingmodelforhumananddigitallabor,managingthelifecycleofAIagents,andoptimizinghowworkisallocatedbetweenthetwo.

Ultimately,AIwillreshapetechnologyeconomics,notsimplyincreasetechnologycosts.CIOswhosteertheircompaniestowardthehighest-returnAIopportunitieswhilecontinuouslymodernizingthetechnologyfoundationcanturnrisingAIdemandintoanadvantage—acceleratinginnovation,enablingnewbusinessmodelsandavenuesforgrowth,andstrengtheningmargins.The

opportunityisnotsimplytomanagethecostofAIbuttoshapewhereandhowitcreatesvalue.

©2026BostonConsultingGroup11

Authors

/\

MichaelGrebe

ManagingDirector&Senior

Partner

Munich

DjonKleine

ManagingDirector&PartnerSanFrancisco-BayArea

DanielBake