美联储 -人工智能代理时代的支付 Payments in the Age of AI Agents 202610

Forreleaseondelivery3:00p.m.EDT

September29,2026

PaymentsintheAgeofAIAgents

Remarksby

ChristopherJ.Waller

Member

BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem

at

Sibos2026

Miami,Florida

September29,2026

Thankyouforinvitingmetospeakheretoday.

1

LastyearatSibosIleanedintotheconferencethemeanddiscussedhowarangeofemergingtechnologiescouldshape

thenextfrontieringlobalpayments.

2

Consistentwiththisyear’stheme,todayIwanttofocusmorespecificallyonthestateofartificialintelligence(AI)inpaymentsandraiseafewquestionsabouthowthistechnologycouldchangethewaypaymentsystemsoperate.

AsIhavediscussedbefore,withinthefinancialsector,thepaymentsindustryhaslongbeenattheforefrontofusingAItoimproveoperations.

3

Thereisarichhistoryofdeployingmachinelearningtocombatpaymentsfraud.Theindustrywasalsoanearlyadopteroflargelanguagemodels(LLMs)forpaymentreconciliationandsimilartasks.NowitishelpingtobuildfoundationalinfrastructureforAIagentstooperatemore

broadlyintheeconomy.TheseagentscanplanandexecutemultistepprocessesusingLLMs,enablingthoseagentstotransactautonomously.

Giventheglobalaudienceforthisevent,I’llstartbydiscussingtheimplicationsofAIfortheefficiencyandsecurityofcross-borderpayments.ThenIwillturntoa

potentiallytransformativetopicforthepaymentsindustry—agenticcommerce.

1ThankyoutoJeffAllenandMicahGertzogoftheFederalReserveBoardfortheirassistanceinpreparingthistext.TheviewsexpressedherearemyownandnotnecessarilythoseofmycolleaguesontheFederalReserveBoardortheFederalOpenMarketCommittee.

2SeeChristopherJ.Waller(2025),“TheNextFrontierofPaymentsInnovation,”speechdeliveredatSibos2025,Frankfurt,Germany,September29,

/newsevents/speech/waller20250929a.htm

.

3SeeChristopherJ.Waller(2025),“TechnologicalAdvancementsinPayments,”speechdeliveredattheWyomingBlockchainSymposium2025,TetonVillage,Wyoming,August20,

/newsevents/speech/waller20250820a.htm

.

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PotentialforCross-BorderPaymentEfficiencyandSecurity

Muchhasbeensaidabouthowstablecoinscanpotentiallyimprovecross-borderpayments.

4

SowhatrolecanAIplay?CombatingillicitfinanceisoneoftheclearestexamplesofwhereAIcandriveefficiencyandsecuritygains.Thisworkiscriticalin

cross-borderpayments,wherethreatactorscanexploittheseamsbetweenjurisdictions.LLMshavecontextualawarenessthatcangreatlyimprovetheaccuracyofsanctions

screeningandanti-money-launderingsystems.Researchhasdemonstratedthattheycansignificantlyreducefalse-positivealertsforillicitactivity.

5

Thisfreesupresourcestoexaminemorecomplex,high-riskcasesandallowslegitimatetransactionstoproceed

withlessfriction.Giventhevelocityofmodernpaymentsystems,IexpectLLMstoaugment,ratherthanreplace,faster,moretraditionalanomalydetectionmethods.

TheeffectofAIoncybersecurityisanotherimportantconsiderationforpaymentsystemsglobally.ManyareworriedthatAIcouldincreasethevolumeandsophisticationofcyberattacks.Theseconcernsarewellfounded.NearlyeveryweekweseenewmodelreleasespushingtheboundariesofcybersecurityorAIagentsescapingtheirtest

environmentsandbreachingexternalsystems.Inthepaymentsworld,asuccessful

cyberattackagainstahighlyinterconnectedpaymentinfrastructurecouldsignificantlydisruptinternationalcommerce.

ButAIisn’tjustanoffensivetool.CyberprofessionalsareoptimisticabouttheuseofAIforcyberthreatdetectionandexposuremanagement,amongotherimportant

4SeeChristopherJ.Waller(2025),“ReflectionsonaMaturingStablecoinMarket,”speechdeliveredatAVeryStableConference,SanFrancisco,California,February12,

/newsevents/speech/waller20250212a.htm

.

5SeeJeffreyS.AllenandMaxS.S.Hatfield(2025),“CanLLMsImproveSanctionsScreeningintheFinancialSystem?EvidencefromaFuzzyMatchingAssessment,”FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries2025-092(Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,September),

/10.17016/FEDS.2025.092

.

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defensivetasks.

6

AIcanbeusedtosupportthedevelopmentofnew,moresecure

softwareandhelpcatchvulnerabilitiesbeforethey’reintroduced.However,thereis

clearlyanasymmetry.Threatactorsneedtoexploitonlyonekeyvulnerability,whereaspaymentsystemoperatorsandserviceprovidersneedtodefendalargeattacksurface.

ThatasymmetryispreciselywhytheindustrymustmovedeliberatelytoleverageAIinstrengtheningthesafetyofourtrustedpaymentsystems.

AIcouldalsohelpfacilitatethemanylayersofsearchandoptimizationrequiredinsendingmoneyacrossborders.Paymentroutinginvolvesfindingthepaththatbest

balancescost,speed,andreliability.Similarly,cross-borderpaymentserviceproviders

havecomplexforeignexchangeconversionandliquiditymechanisms.Theyneedto

decidewhenandwheretoconvertcurrency,whethertonetoffsettingflows,andsoforth.Ifpresentedwiththerightdataandcriteria,AIagentshavethepotentialtoexcelat

solvingthesecomplexoptimizationproblems,helpingtoimprovetheefficiencyofcross-borderpayments.

DevelopmentsinAgenticCommerce

Letmeturntoanemergingareaoffocusforthepaymentsindustry.Atthe

beginningofthesummer,IhostedanindustryroundtableattheFederalReservethatfocusedonagenticcommerce,whichinvolvesusingAIagentstomakee-commercepurchases.

7

Marketparticipantsbroadlyagreethatagenticcommerceisinanearlyphase,butitcouldsignificantlyreshapecommerceandpaymentsifadoptionscales.

6SeeIñakiAldasoro,SebastianDoerr,LeonardoGambacorta,SukhvirNotra,TommasoOliviero,and

DavidWhyte(2025),“GenerativeArtificialIntelligenceandCyberSecurityinCentralBanking,”JournalofFinancialRegulation,vol.11(April),pp.119–28.

7AdditionalinformationontheMay26,2026,roundtableisavailableontheBoard’swebsiteat

/paymentsystems/files/payments-innovation-roundtable-meeting-

20260526.pdf

.

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Atahighlevel,therearetwoprimarymodelsofagenticcommerce:agent

assistedandagentdelegated.Intheagent-assistedmodel,abuyerusesanAIagent

primarilyforproductsearchanddiscovery,butthebuyerremainsincontrol.Theymakethedecisions,andtheyhandlethepayment.Intheagent-delegatedmodel,abuyergrantsauthoritytoanAIagenttoshopandmakepaymentsontheirbehalf.Thebuyermay

specifysomeconstraintsandsetupguardrails,buttheagentoperatesautonomously.Forexample,abuyermightgiveanagentaccesstoapre-fundedvirtualcardwithinstructionstoshopforgroceriesonlinebasedonpastpurchases.

Consumer-to-businesstransactionsareseenasthefirstwaveofagentic

commerce,withagent-assistedusecasesprecedingmoreautonomous,agent-delegatedones.Becauseitintroduceshigherrisksofunintendedpurchases,thedelegatedmodelrequiresamoreextensivebuildoutoftrustmechanismsandguardrails.I'llsaymore

abouttheseshortly.Consumersarelikelytoaccessagentsintwocommonways:

throughgeneral-purposeagentsofferedbyAIfirmsandthroughmerchant-specific

agents.AspersonalAIassistantsgaintraction,theytoocouldbecomeanaturalfitfor

agenticcommerce.Tobeusefultoconsumers,AIagentsneedbroad,real-time

knowledgeofmerchantinventories.Largeonlineretailersaresharingtheirinventory

dataindifferentways.SomeworkdirectlywithAIfirmstomaketheirproductcatalogsavailabletothird-partyagents,whileotherssurfacethatcatalogdatathroughtheirown

shoppingagents.Smallandmedium-sizedmerchantsarebeingsupportedbye-

commerceplatforms,whicharebuildingtoolstostandardizetheirdigitalproductcatalogsandmakethemdiscoverablebyleadingagentinterfaces.

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Whileconsumershoppingreceivesalotofattentioninthisarea,business-to-

business(B2B)purchasesmaybeespeciallywellsuitedforagenticcommerce.These

purchasesareoftenrecurringandabidebyasetofrules,suchasapprovedsuppliersandbudgetlimits,whichcreatenaturalguidelinesforagents.Agentscouldalsopotentiallynegotiatetermswithsuppliersanddeveloppaymentstrategiestooptimizeworking

capital.However,thehighertransactionvaluestypicalinB2Bcommerceamplifythe

financialexposurefromagenterrorsorunauthorizedactions,sorobustcontrolsand

monitoringsystemswillbeessential.ForB2Bpurchases,agentswouldneedtobeabletocarryoutpaymentsonadiversesetofrails.Whereaspaymentcardsdominate

consumere-commercepayments,businessesrelyonawiderrangeofmethods,includingACH,wire,instantpayments,andcards.

Tooperateefficientlyacrosstheseshoppingcontexts,agentswillneedtomake

micropaymentsalongtheway.Beforecompletingapurchase,anagentmightpayfor

LLMqueries,pricedatafeeds,andotherAPIcalls.Smallmachine-to-machinepaymentsarenotnew,buttheycouldreachamuchlargerscaleifshoppingagentsareworking

aroundtheclockatmachinespeed.Micropaymentslikethesefavorpaymentrailswithlowerflatfees.

Thebiggestbarriertoscalingagenticcommerce,particularlytheagent-delegatedmodel,isbuildingsufficienttrustamongbuyersandsellers.Afewconcretechallengesstandout:authentication,liability,andfraud.Agenticcommercetransformsthe

paymentauthenticationparadigm.Thequestionshiftsfromprovingthatabuyerisanauthorizedpayertoprovingthatanagenthastheauthoritytopayonthebuyer’sbehalf.Capturingthiswillrequirenewauthenticationapproaches.Liabilityinthiscontext

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comesdowntoaprettysimplequestion:Whoisonthehookifanagentmakesthe

wrongpurchase?Currente-commerceliabilityframeworks—includingnetworkrules,

consumerprotectionstandards,andotherregulations—couldpotentiallybeadaptedfor

agenticcommerce.Buttheremayalsobeanopportunitytotestandrefinenew

approaches.Forexample,technicalstandardscouldbedesignedtogiveeveryonea

betterunderstandingofwhatthebuyerintendedandhowtheiragentcarrieditout.Thatsharedunderstandingcouldhelpreducetheambiguitiesthatcomplicatemanytransactiondisputestoday.Finally,asinothercontexts,fraudcouldundermineconfidenceinagenticcommerce.Existingfrauddetectionandpreventionsystems,calibratedtohuman

behavior,maynottranslatewelltoagents.Asaresult,fraudmodelsandruleswillneedtoberecalibratedtoaccountforagentpaymentpatterns.

Marketparticipantsareactivelydevelopingstandardstoaddresssomeofthese

trustchallengesandrelatedissues.Techfirms,e-commerceplatforms,andpayment

serviceprovidersarebuildingfoundationalprotocolsthatstandardizehowagentsinteractwithmerchantsandmakepayments.Cardnetworksarealsopublishingtechnical

specificationsthatenableAIagentstomakesecurepaymentsonapayer’sbehalf.Thesespecificationsincludemethodsofregisteringagentsandloggingcardholders’approvalstoconductagenticpayments,amongotherfunctionalities.Akeyquestioniswhether

agenticcommercewillmigratetowardplatform-specificorinteroperablestandards.Platform-specificstandardsaredesignedaroundasingleecosystem.Interoperable

standardsaredesignedtoworkacrosse-commercesystems,agentinterfaces,and

paymentmethods.Inthissense,theycouldhelptoleveltheplayingfieldforsmallermerchantsandpaymentprovidersseekingtooperateinthisspace.

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Arelatedconsiderationrevolvesaroundopenversusclosedagenticcommerce

systems,whichsharesimilaritieswithopen-andclosed-looppaymentnetworks.An

opensysteminthiscontextisonethatallowsarangeofshoppingagentsonitsplatform.AclosedsystemisonethatrequiresusingaspecificAIagent.Forexample,anonline

retailermightrequireshopperstouseitsproprietaryAIagentandblockotheragents.

Opensystemssupportbuyerchoiceandanactiveenvironmentfordevelopingnew

agenticcommercesolutions.Closedsystemsgiveonlineretailersmorecontroloverwhathappensontheirplatformsandleadtomoreverticalintegration.Atthisearlystage,itisnotclearwhichmodelwillhavetheedgeinshapingagenticcommerce,butwhichever

gainstractioncouldsignificantlyinfluence