《可再生氢推动中国化工行业脱碳》配套文件

Renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisation2AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaAgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraIndustry(2026):Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaPublicationdetailsTechnicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaAuthoraffiliationWenboZhaowenbo.zhao@AuthorsPhilipHorster(formerlyAgoraEnergyChina)AcknowledgmentsWewouldliketothankLeandroJanke,MatthiasFrankPeter,AlexandraSteinhardt,AnjaWerner,IsadoraWangandYiranJinfortheirhelpfulcommentsandsupport.AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina3TableofContentsAEmissionsreductionmethodologyBCostmethodologiesandinputvaluesB.2.1Levelisedcostofhydrogen(LCOH)calcuB.2.2InputvaluesB.3AmmoniaandmethanolB.4MethanolB.5MethodologicaldifferencesbetweenPyPSAOptimisationandPTX-BOAB.6PriceoverviewsofgreyammoniaandmethanolCRegionalprojectdata–furtherdetailsDAsummaryofpoliciesBibliography26AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina4TableB-2Techno-economicparametersfortherenewableenergysources9TableB-3Techno-economicparametersfortheelectrolysis11TableB-4Techno-economicdataforHaber-Boschplants12TableB-5Technicalandfinancialdataforselectedoff-gridgreenammoniaprojectsinChinaTableB-6ProductioninputsandcostsfortheconceptammoniasynthesisplantinSichuanTableB-7Techno-economicdataformethanolsynthesisplants15TableB-8Technicalandfinancialdatafortheoff-gridgreenmethanolprojectinChina16TableB-9Productioninputsandcostsformethanolsynthesisplant17TableB-10Overviewofmethodologies18TableB-11Ammoniaspotmarketpricesbetween2022and202418TableB-12MethanolspotandcontractpricesinChina,November2023toSeptember202419TableC-1Comparisonofgreenammoniaandmethanolcapacityannouncementwithgreyammoniaandmethanolproductionin202120TableD-1AsummaryofpoliciesaboutChinesenationalandprovince-level(InnerMongolia,Jilin,Ningxia),EUandGermanrenewablehydrogenpolicies22TableD-2IPCEI-fundedprojectsinGermanyAgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina5Thistechnicaldocumentprovidesfurtherdetailsonboththemethodologyfortheemissionsreductioncalculationsandthemethodologyandinputvaluesforestimatingthelevelisedcostofelectricity(LCOE),(LCOM).Italsoincludesfurtherregionaldataonhydrogenprojectsandcoalproductionaswellasasummaryofpolicies.Thecostestimates,projectdataandpolicyreviewinthisdocumentarebasedprimarilyonthesituationasof2024.Policystatusandrevisionsreflectofficialdocumentsavailableatthetimeofwritingandmaybesubjecttosubsequentupdates.AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina6AEmissionsreductionmethodologyInordertoquantifytheCO₂emissionreductionsachievedbyusingrenewablehydrogeninsteadoffossil-basedhydrogenintheproductionofchemicalproducts,thisstudybreaksdowntheprocessstepsinwhichhydrogenisusedasarawmaterialandcalculatesthehydrogenconsumptionateachstageindetail.DifferenttraditionalhydrogenproductionmethodsandtheircorrespondingCO₂emissionsarealsoconsidered.Thecalculationofemissionreductionsisbasedonascenarioanalysisapproachthatintegratespubliclyavailableindustrystatistics,reportedprocessdataandassumptionsfromliteratureandotherindustrysources.Thisprovidesaconsistentanalyticalframeworkforevaluatingrenewablehydrogensubstitutionacrossvariouschemicalproducts.CalculationSteps1.Chemicalproductdatacollection:obtainingdataontheproductionvolumesofmajorchemicalproductsandtheirhydrogenconsumption.2.Processflowanalysis:identifyinghydrogenconsumptionforeachstepwithintheactualproductionprocesswherehydrogenisusedasafeedstock.3.Sourceidentification:determiningthesourcesoffeedstockhydrogenintraditionalprocesses,basedonreal-worldconditions.4.Emissionfactorapplication:utilisingstandardemissionfactorsfordifferenthydrogenproductionprocesses(derivedfromindustrydata)tocalculateCO₂emissionreductionswhenusingrenewablehydrogen.AssumptionsWeassumenosignificantchangesintheeffectivenessofrenewablehydrogensubstitutionandnosignificantchangeintheeffectofemissionreductionwithrenewablehydrogensubstitutioninrecentyears.Theemissionreductioncalculationsarebasedonthelatestavailableunified-yeardata(2022)forchemicalproductoutputandhydrogenconsumption.50–50splitforsyngasadjustmentandpurchasedhydrogenInmethanololefinandcoalchemicalproduction,itistypicaltoadjustthecarbon-to-hydrogenratiousingsyngaswhilealsopurchasingexternalhydrogen.Thisstudyassumeseachsourcecontributes50%oftotalhydrogenconsumption.FeedstockhydrogensourcesassumptionFormethanol(Zhu&Feng,2024)andammonia(Xiong,Liu,&Gao,2022)production,referencesfromtheliteraturewereusedtoidentifythehydrogenfeedstocksources.Forotherchemicalproducts,allfeedstockhydrogenisassumedtocomefromcoal-basedhydrogenproduction.GreenmethanolscenarioThisstudyincludesagreenmethanolproductionscenario.ItisassumedthatsufficientexternalCO₂isavailabletoproducethesamequantityofmethanolasinotherscenarios.DataSourcesHistoricalproductiondataforrefining,ammonia,methanolandmoderncoal-basedchemicals(coal-to-olefins,coal-to-oilandcoal-to-gas),aswellasCO₂emissionsdataforvarioushydrogenproductionprocesses,primarilycomefromindustryreportsandhandbooks(seereferencesinthistechnicaldocument).Thedifferentprocessroutesandhydrogenconsumptionlevelsforeachchemicalproductarereferencedfrompubliclyavailableindustrialprocessdataandliteraturestudies.AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina7BCostmethodologiesandinputvaluesToensurerobustresults,thisreportreliesonvariousinformationontheinputvaluesandthecalculationmethodologies(seeTable2.1).Assources,weusemethodsforeachcostestimationcanbefoundintheChina-specificdataandconditions.MoredetailedtechnicaldocumentNumberofcalculationmethods113MethodologymethodologyofGEChinaandChina’snationalstandardNB/T10394-200LCOHmethodologyofUmlautandAgoraIndustry(2024)Keyparameters:PV,onshorewindcapex,opex,annuityfactor,lifetimeandFLH,residualvalue,tax,ElectrolysiscapexforChina,annuityfactor,lifetime,FLH,stackreplacementtime,LCOEDependingonmethodTypeofresults3LCOH:for4000,6000and8000FLHMultipleLCOXforeachmethodFortherenewableelectricityusedinelectrolysis,weassumeapowergenerationmixof50%powerfromphotovoltaicandonshorewind,respectively.Thisisbecauseboththeregionswiththehighestpotentialforlow-costgreenhydrogenproduction,aswellasmostcurrentannouncedprojects(seeprojectdataanalysisbelow),areprimarilylocatedinruralareasofinlandprovinces,farfromcoastalregions.Toestimatethelevelisedcostofelectricity(LCOE),weuseacombinationoftwoauthoritativesourceswidelyusedinChina,ensuringthereliabilityandapplicabilityoftheLCOEmodelinthecontextofChina.ThesearethemethodologyfromGEChina’sWindPowerLCOEWhitePaperandtheparameterselectionrequirementsoutlinedinChina’snationalstandardNB/T10394-2020SpecificationsforPerformanceAssessmentofPhotovoltaicPowerGenerationSystemsforthecalculation.Boththedetailedcalculationmethodandtheinputvaluesareavailableinthetechnicaldocument.AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina8ThefullinvestmentmodelLCOEiscalculatedinthefollowingformula(GE,2016;NB/T10394-2020,2020).→Nisthelifetimeoftheequipment→nisthenumberofyearstheequipmenthasbeeninoperation→isthecorporateincometax→istheannualdepreciationvalue.Itiscalculatedbyusingtheaverageannuallifemethod→isthediscountrate,whichistherateatwhichtheexpectedfutureearningsofafiniteperiodarediscountedtotheirpresentvalueBaistheannualopex→istheresidualvalueoffixedassets→Raistheresidualrate→istheequivalentnumberofhoursoffullgeneration.(Inactualoperation,theactualgenerationofwindpowerandsolarpowerissubjecttoactiveforecastingandstategridregulation,andthisvariableisthetotalgenerationofanormalyearconvertedintotheequivalentnumberofhoursoffull-loadoperationofallunits).TheinputvaluesfortheLCOEareasfollows:Capitalcostsfortheutility-scalePVinstallationsareUSD557/kW(CIPA,2024)andforonshorewindUSD636/kW(ChinaRenewableEnergyEngineeringInstitute,2024).TodeterminetheopexandlifetimeofPVandonshorewind,werelyonthecommonChineseestimatesforthesetechnologies.ForPV,theopexissetat1%ofcapexperyearandthelifetimeis25years.Onshorewindprojectshaveanopexof2%ofcapexandalifetimeof20yearsinthemodel.AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina9averageyearisconvertedintotheequivalentnumberofFLH.TheaveragetechnicalpotentialofPVandonshorewind.Toensurethesevaluesincludewindisnotused.curtailmentconsiderations,thetotalgenerationofanTechno-economicparametersfortherenewableenergysourcesParameterOnshorewindpowerFullloadhours(h)1227226364DiscountrateLifetime(inyears)20ResidualvalueCorporatetaxResult(USD/kWh)0.02710.0241 1/2023-09/07/c_1310741874.htm2/2023-09/07/c_1310741874.htm3"ChinaPVIndustryDevelopmentRoadmap2023-2024"4/userfiles/site/3c50e7395318409d8812d79d025fad46.pdf5/s/EjHD46pDjoE25491GNPllA6/s/EjHD46pDjoE25491GNPllA(Rangefrom5%~10%)B.1.2.4ComparisonwiththemethodologyoftheEUmapofhydrogenproductioncostsWecomparedthismethodologywiththoseofLCOEmodelsforwindandPVusedinEurope,specifically,theLCOEmethodologyfromtheEUmapofhydrogenproductioncosts(AgoraIndustry,2024a),tobetterunderstandandadapttheLCOEmethodologytothespecificconditionsinChina.Therearethreedifferences.First,intheChineseLCOEmethodology,thecorporateincometaxaswellastheresidualareconsidered.Thelatterreferstothevalueofsomeresidualmaterialsrecoveredduringthescrappingoffixedassets,whichshouldbedeductedfromthecost.Second,theLCOEmethodologyreportedontheAgoraIndustry(2024a)forthecapexandopexofbatterystorageisnotconsidered.Inreality,mostofthePVandwindpowerinChinaisnotequippedwithbatterystorage.Third,theChinesemethodologydoesnotincludecurtailmentcostconsiderationsbecauseChinadoesnotprovidesubsidiesforwindandsolarpowercurtailmentdevices.AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinacalculationmethodologyFortheLCOH,thecalculationmethoddevelopedbyUmlautandAgoraIndustry(2023)isadaptedtoChinabyusingnationalinputvalues,forexampleforthecapex,opex,electricitycostsandannuityfactor.Tocreatelow-,mid-andhigh-costscenariosfortheLCOH,weusethreedifferentFLHassumptionsforelectrolysers:4000FLH,6000FLHand8000FLH.TheresultingthreeLCOHvaluesareusedasinputvaluesfortheLCOAandLCOM.Seethetechnicaldocumentforfurtherdetails.ThecalculationoftheLCOHisbasedonthefollowingformula.→areferstotheannuityfactor/costofcapital.τreferstothefullloadhours→Opexreferstotheoperationalexpenditures→Capexreferstothecapitalexpenditure→referstotheelectricitycosts→LHVrepresentslowerheatingvalueofhydrogen.TheLHVis33.3kWh/kg→Efficiencyrepresentstheratiooftheoutputofhydrogentotheelectricalpowerrequiredforproducingit.Theefficiencyis67%basedonthemeanvalueoftheavailabledata.specificenergyconsumptionoftheelectrolysis→Theterminspecificenergyconsumptionoftheelectrolysissystem→referstothediscountrateinpercent,→referstothelifetimeinyears.Theannuityfactorrepresentsthelevelisedcostofdiscountrateineachyear.Thecostanalysisincludesfourmaincomponentsthatcoverexpendituresfortheconstructionandoperationoftheelectrolysissystem.Themaincomponentsarecapexdepreciation,Op,electricitycostsandcostofcapital.Capexdepreciationincludescapexfortheelectrolysissystem,EPC,stackreplacementcostsandcompressorcosts.Opexissettobe2%ofcapexperyear.Electricitycostsincludethoseforhydrogenproductionandforcompression.B.2.2InputvaluesTheinputvaluesfortheLCOEareasfollows:DataoncapexisbasedonresearchbyAgoraEnergiewendeandtheBNEFreportin2024.ThecapexoftheelectrolysissystemissetatUSD462/kW7,includinganinitialstack.ThecompressorcostisUSD56.Thelifetimestackis80000hours.Thestackreplacementcostis19%andtheEPCis34%oftheelectrolysersystem’scapex.ThetotalcapexisUSD600/kW(BloombergNEF,2024),Weassume2%Opexasafractionofcapexperyear.72023USDaveragepriceAgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaLifetimestackissetas80000hours,thespecificWeusethreedifferentFLHlevelsfortheLCOHenergyconsumptionis55.5kWh/kgH₂andthecalculation:4000,6000and8000.Byusingthese,compressorefficiencyis80%.weareabletocalculatearangeofLCOHvaluesandsubsequentLCOAandLCOMvalues.Intheanalysis,weselect6000hoursasthemid-costscenario.Techno-economicparametersfortheelectrolysisDiscountrateLifetimeelectrolysersystem10ammoniaLifetimestack80000hAnnuityfactorEnergyconsumption50.0kWh/kgH2Fullloadhours6000Compressorefficiency80%ElectricitycostsCapexelectrolysersystem*USD462/MWh34%StackreplacementcostsStorageandcompressionUSD56/kWcompressorUSD600/kWNote:*Allcomponentsforanelectrolysersystemincludinganinitialstack;**EPC=engineering,procurementandconstructioncoveringbothdi-rectandindirectcostsbasedonBNEF’scategorisationB.3AmmoniaandmethanolFortheestimationofboththelevelisedcostofgreenammonia(LCOA)andthelevelisedcostofgreenmethanol(LCOM),threedifferentmethodologiesareused(seeTable2.2).First,wecontinuethemodularapproachbytakingtheLCOEandLCOHasinputsfortheLCOAandLCOMcalculation.TheotherinputvaluesarederivedfromOeko-Institut(2024)andothernationaldatasources.Theresultswerevalidatedwiththeopen-sourcePython-basedlibrary"PythonforPowerSystemAnalysis”(PyPSA)(Brownetal.,2018).TheinputscomefromthesamedatacollectionexceptthattheLCOEandLCOHaredeterminedbytheoptimisation.YearlybasedweatherdataweresourcedfromPfenningerandStaffell(2016).ImportanttonoteisthatitdiffersfromthePtXBusinessOpportunityAnalyser(PTX-BOA;Oeko-Institutetal.,2024)inmultipleways(i.e.,regardingseasonality,weatheryears,RESmix),meaningthatthecostestimatesforChinainthisreportarenotcomparabletoPtX-BOAresults.AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaThisreportfurthervalidatestheresultswithprojectreportstocompareourestimatesforgreenmethanoldatafromactualgreenammoniaandmethanolproducedfromRES,electrolysisandcapturedcarbonprojectsinChinatoestimateanLCOAandLCOMforwiththecostestimatesofbiogenicmethanol.specificproductionsites.Themaininputsarecapex,REScapacityandammonia/methanolproductioncapacity.ThismakesitpossibletocomparetheLCOXestimatesofourmethodologywiththoseofrealprojectsand,ultimately,toassesstheircost-competitiveness.Additionally,weassessaconceptcaseforagrid-CapitalcostsfortheammoniasynthesisarebasedconnectedammoniasynthesisprojectinSichuan,onamixofsources,includingthecostsreportedwhichreliesonahydropowerPowerPurchasebyOeko-Institut(2024)andtheglobalcapexpriceAgreemet(PPA)astherenewableelectricitysource.estimatedbyCesaroetal.,(2021).TheaveragevalueThisconceptstudyprovidesinsightsonhowusingacrosssourcesisUSD6338/kW.Additionally,weelectrolysis-to-ammoniatechnologyinregionswithincludeahydrogenstoragetankthatisbasedonabundanthydropowerresources,suchasSichuan,AgoraEnergiewende’scapexdata(USD59.7/kWh).canfurtherdecreasethecosts.Lastly,formethanol,TheoverallcapexoftheammoniasynthesissystemwealsoincludeanoverviewofestimatesofthecoststandsatUSD692.7/kW.ofbiomethanolandbio-e-methanolfoundinother8USDisreportedin2023values.Techno-economicdataforHaber-BoschplantsParameterUnitAgoraUnitcostCapexHaber-Bosch+Storage(ofwhichStorage)USD2023/kW692.7%capexp.a.2Lifetime20EfficiencykWhNH3/kWhH20.822demand2/kWhNH30.0372.29*2demand2/kWhNH30.068ElectricitydemandkWhel/kWhNH30.026TotalproductionpriceUSD2023/MWhNotes:ThistableisderivedfromAgoraandÖko-Institut(2024).*Assuming6000FLHfortheelectrolysis.AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaB.3.1.2ProductioninputsandexpenditureTheproductioninputsareequallybasedonAgoraWeassume8000FLH,asthecapexincludesIndustry’smethodologyand,alongwithexpenditures,canbefoundinTableB-3.Fuelcostsarebasedonthehydrogenstoragecosts.LCOHandLCOEvaluesandmarketpricesfornitrogeninChinainthefirsthalfof2024.Theopexissetat2%ofcapexperyearandtheAsrealcaseprojectsincludetheinvestmentcostlifetimeissetat20years.Theseareacommonoftheentireoff-gridsystem(includingRESandstandardforChineseinfrastructureprojects.nitrogencapture),thecapexvaluesperkWammoniasynthesiscapacityarethussignificantlyhigherthanforhydropower,whichincludestheelectrolysis,nitrogencaptureandsynthesissystembutnottheelectricitysource.Atthesametime,italsoleadstolowerfuelcostsforrealcaseprojects.Technicalandfinancialdataforselectedoff-gridgreenammoniaprojectsinChinaRealcasedataLocationUlatMidBanner,InnerMongoliaAmmonia(ktpa)Ammonia(MW)91Electrolysis(ktpa)N/AN/AElectrolysis(MW)N/AN/AOnshorewind(MW)800-50--FLHwind22983220*8000-*8000Batterystorage20MW/40MWh40MW/80MWh3208908637956Notes:*assumedFLHofhydropower-basedammoniaplant.AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaaninputbecausethesystem’selectricityisassumedtocomeentirelyfromtheoff-gridRES.GiventhatWecalculatevariousLCOAsbasedondifferenttheseareintegratedprojects,wealsoassumethatFLHlevels(5000,6000,7000and8000).IfthethecapexincludesanitrogencaptureunitinsteadofRESsystem(windorwind/PVhybrid)isunabletoassumingnitrogeninputsatmarketprice.Therefore,generatesufficientelectricitytomeetthepowertherealcasesdonothaveinputcostsbeyondwaterdemandofthesynthesisprocess,theresultingratio(seeTableX-3).Catalysersfortherespectivechemicalisusedasthebasisforthebest-casefull-loadhoursprocessesareassumedtobeincludedinO&Mcosts,(FLH)assumption.Wedonotconsider4000FLHintheanalysisbecausebothrealcasesincludebatteryastheyarenegligible.storage.FortheSichuanconceptcase,thecapexincludeselectrolysers,thesynthesisplantandnitrogencapturebutnottheelectricitysource.Therefore,weB.3.2.3Productioninputsandexpenditureaggregatetheelectricitydemandfortheelectrolysis,thesynthesisplantandnitrogencapture.WaterisFortheserealandconceptcases,wealsousetheanotherproductioninput.TableB-5providesanproductioninputsfromtheliterature-baseddatacollection(e.g.,Oeko-Institut,2024).However,overviewoftheproductioninputs.weadjustthemaccordingtowhichpartsoftheBycontrast,thesite-specificcaseshaveverylimitedproductionchainareincludedinthecapex.inputexpenditure,withwaterinputcostsofUSDSubsequently,therealcasesdonothaveelectricityas2.72/tNH3.ProductioninputsandcostsfortheconceptammoniasynthesisplantinSichuanParameterUnitAgoraWaterL/kgH2Electricitydemand(Electrolysis)kWhel/kgH249.30.02645.88238.55EfficiencykWhNH3/kWhH20.82---2demand2/kWhNH30.037---2demand2/kWhNH3---Electricitydemand2capture)kWhel/kgN20.026Electricitydemand(SynthesisPlant)kWhel/kWhNH30.026TotalproductionpriceUSD2023/MWh--266.42Note:Asaresult,theinputexpenditureforthehydropower-runintegratedammoniasynthesisplantissignificantlyhigherthanfortherealcases.Theelectricitycost(USD0.026/kWh)isbasedonthelong-termelectricitypricementionedintheproject’sfinancialreport.Itmakesupthelarg-estshare(USD263.70/tNH)ofoverallinputexpenditurefortheSichuanplant,whichstandsatUSD266.42/tammonia.AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaTheOpexliesat2%ofcapexperyearandthelifetimeTheCapexvalueofUSD1316/kWformethanolissetat20years.Theseareacommonstandardforsynthesisisanaverageofmultiplesources,includingChineseinfrastructureprojects.theestimatesoftheMethanolInstitutereportonChina’sgreenmethanolproduction(Hongetal.,2024),BNEF’sChinacapexassumptionandAgoraIndustry’sB.4Methanolcapexassumption.B.4.1.2ProductioninputandexpenditureThemethanolsynthesisdataisbasedonamixofProductioninputvaluesarealsobasedonOeko-sources,thoughreliesmostlyonOeko-Institut(2024).Institut(2024).TheCO₂priceisderivedfromtheItincludesdataonlyforthetwo-stepsynthesisGlobalCCSInstitute’sreportonCCUStechnologiesprocess,asitisthesoleprocessmodelledinthisinChina(2023).Thehydrogencostisbasedonoursection.calculatedLCOHvaluesandtheelectricitypriceoftheLCOE.TableB-6showstheproductioninputsandcostsforthemethanolsynthesis.Techno-economicdataformethanolsynthesisParameterUnitInputsperUnitcost---%capexp.a.2---Lifetime20---EfficiencykWhMeOH/kWhH20.8---2demand2/kWhMeOH0.0382.29*85.82demand2/kWhMeOH0.2640.02846.3--0.09324.6ElectricitydemandkWhel/kWhMeOH0.070.025--94.3584.6---Notes:ThistableisderivedfromOeko-Institut(2024).*Assuming6000FLHforelectrolysis.AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaAsabove,theopexissetat2%ofcapexperyearandthelifetimeissetat20years.Theprojects’capexdatacanbefoundinTableB-7Becausetheelectricityfortheelectrolysisandthemethanolsynthesiscomesfromtheoff-gridRESoftherealcase,theonlyinputexpenditurefortheplantcomesfromCO₂.BasedontheOeko-Institut’s(2024)Weassume8000FLH,asthecapexincludesdatacollectionandtheCO₂pricesbytheGlobalCCShydrogenstoragecosts.Institute(2023),weestimateafuelcostofUSD7.5/industryandcoalpowergenerationandUSD24.6/MWh(orUSD152/t)forbiogenicCO₂.ThereisthusapricedifferenceofUSD106.4/tbetweenbothsources.WealsocalculateanLCOMbasedonrealcasedataAllotherinputsareassumedtobeincludedintheforgreenmethanol.However,givenlimiteddataavailabilityamongprojectsintheconstructionphase,wefocusonthreeannouncedprojectswithsufficientfinancialandtechnicaldetailspublishedintheirpressreleases.ThetechnicalandfinancialdatacanbefoundinTableB-7.Technicalandfinancialdatafortheoff-gridgreenmethanolprojectRealcasedataLocationShuangyashan,HeilongjiangTaonan,JilinUlatRearBanner,InnerMongoliaMethanol(ktpa)200250Methanol(MW)Electrolysis(ktpa)N/AN/A54Electrolysis(ktpa)N/AN/AN/APowergeneration(MW)660(wind)680(wind)1000(wind+PV)FLHwind30584000Batterystorage(MW/MWh)300/600N/A98979198569874472AgoraEnergyChina—Technicaldocument:renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaProductioninputsandcostsformethanolsynthesisplantInputunitunitcost,USDt280.2846.25t930.2824.6AswiththeLCOA,weestimatetheLCOMaccordingtovariousFLHlevels.Inallcases,theoff-gridrenewablepowergenerationtechnicallysufficesforthepowerdemandfortheelectrolysisandmethanolsynthesis.However,giventhatonlysites1and3havebatterystorage,weassumethattheyreachproductiononlybeyond6000FLH.ThisisbecausebarrierssignificantlyincreasetheFLHoftheelectrolysis,whichsubsequentlyleadstoamoreregularavailabilityofhydrogenformethanolsynthesis.Forsite2,weassume4000–6000FLH.B.5Methodologicaldifferencesbe-tweenPyPSAOptimisationandThemainsimilaritybetweenthePyPSAoptimistationandPtX-BOAliesintheuseofthePyPSAlibraryandsimilartechnicalparametersforsynthesisplants.However,methodologicaldifferencesareplentiful,ofwhichthemostimportantareasfollows.First,thePtX-BOAmodelusesaneight-weeksnapshotofloadpatternsinsteadofayearlyone.Seasonalstorageconsiderationsarethusincludedinourresults–amorerealisticapproachbecausethemarketforrenewablemethanolandammoniawilllikelybeimpactedbytheintermittencyofrenewables.Second,weuseChina-specificfuelandotherinputcostsinsteadofglobalaverages.Third,theChina-specificinputsareveryrecent(2022-2024)andnotfuturepriceprojectionswhilePtX-BOAusespriceprojectionsfor2030and2040.Ourmodelthuscreatesleas