自然灾害和气候风险及复原力评估的分类法-基础设施版

A

UniversalTaxonomyforNatural

Hazard

and

Climate

RiskandResilience

AssessmentsInfrastructureEditionSeptember2026Version

1.0Climatechange

effectsWhat

is

riskand

resilience?Applicationsand

usesAcknowledgementsUserpersonasTaxonomiesGlossaryForewordThisframeworkprovidesstakeholdersauniversallanguageforriskandresilienceassessmentssothattheycanbettercommunicateandaligntheirneedsforspecificapplications.Wehopethatitwillbringmuchneededconsistencyandtransparencytothegrowingdemandfornaturalhazardandclimateriskassessmentsaroundtheworldandleadtomoreresilient

outcomes.Thisversionisfocused

oninfrastructureandtheorganizationsandpeoplewhooperateandusethem.Copyright©

Arup2026A

UniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilience

AssessmentsUserpersonas33Introduction34Multilateraldisaster&climateriskspecialist35Multilateralinfrastructurespecialist36Governmentresiliencelead37Publicorprivateinfrastructureowner38Investorresiliencelead39Infrastructureinvestmentmanager40Financialprotectionandinsurancespecialist41Riskandresiliencepractitioner42Glossary

of

terms43Glossary

of

terms44References45Applicationsanduses4Introduction5SimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomy6Purpose7Whentousethetaxonomy8Application9Whatisriskandresilience?10Whatisrisk?11Whatisresilience?12Howdoyouassessaninfrastructure

system?13Consequence

types

and

communication

of

risk15Climatechangeeffects16Incorporatingclimatechangeeffects17ContentsForeword

2Preface3Acknowledgements46Taxonomies19ARUPClimatechange

effectsWhat

is

riskand

resilience?Applicationsand

usesAcknowledgementsUserpersonasTaxonomiesGlossaryForewordThe

expansion

of

Arup’s

Universal

Taxonomy

for

Natural

Hazardand

Climate

Risk

and

Resilience

Assessments

to

infrastructure

is

bothtimelyandnecessary.Thefirsteditionmadeanimportantcontributionbybringinggreaterstructureandclaritytothewaynaturalhazardandclimate

risk

assessments

for

buildings

are

structured,described

andevaluated.

Sinceitspublication

justovertwoyearsago,thetaxonomyhasalreadybeguntobetakenupacrossacademic,public-sector,financialandmulti-hazardresearchcontexts,reflectingaclearneedfora

shared

language

between

both

consumers

and

producers

ofriskinformation.Thisneedisevengreaterwhenweturntoinfrastructuresystems,whicharefundamentaltoensuringthatsocietiesandeconomies

can

function.Damageanddisruptioncancascadethroughthesesystems,withbothdirectandindirectconsequencesonorganisations,individuals,

andcommunitiesthatcanextendlongaftertheinitialhazard

eventhaspassed.From

the

perspective

of

the

Global

Earthquake

Model(GEM)Foundation,thisworkalignscloselywithourbroadervisionfortransparent,consistentandcomparableearthquakehazardandriskassessment.Whilethe

Aruptaxonomyprovidesaframeworkforscoping,evaluatingandcommunicatingnaturalhazardandclimateriskassessments,GEM’sexposuremodelsandtaxonomieshelpdescribetheassetsandvulnerabilitiesthatoftenunderpinsuchassessments.Emergingmulti-hazardworkisalreadybeginningtodrawtheseapproachestogether1,demonstratingtheimportanceof

commontaxonomiesinlinkinghazard,exposure,vulnerabilityandresilienceinformationacrossdisciplinesandapplications.Thisisparticularlyimportantasclimateand

disasterriskassessmentsareincreasinglybeingusedtoinforminfrastructureinvestment,adaptationplanning,insuranceandpublicpolicy.Thedemandforquantitativeriskinformationisgrowingrapidly,butwithoutcommonterminologyandclearexpectationsthereisarisk

thatassessmentsaremisunderstood,comparedinappropriately,orappliedbeyondtheirintendedpurpose.Thisreporthelpsaddressthatchallengeby

using

a

set

of

user

personas

to

illustrate

how

the

taxonomy

canrespondtodifferentneedsalongatypicalresilience

journey,dependingoneachuser’sroleanddecision-makingcontext.Ithereforewelcomethisexpansionfrombuildingstoinfrastructure.Itrepresentsanimportantsteptowardsmoreconsistent,comparableandactionableriskassessmentacrossthesystems

onwhichsocietiesdepend.Emergingmulti-hazardworkisdemonstrating

the

importance

of

commontaxonomiesinlinkinghazard,exposure,vulnerabilityandresilienceinformationacrossdisciplinesandapplications.

1MinorityReportProject,fundedbythe

European

Union.

Theharmonised

asset

taxonomy

developed

in

this

project

builds

on

Arup’s

Universal

Taxonomy

for

Natural

Hazard

and

Climate

Risk

and

Resilience

Assessments

and

the

exposure

taxonomymaintainedbyGEM.Moreinformationat:https://www.minorityreport–project.eu/enHelenCrowley,MEng,MSc,PhDSecretaryGeneral,GlobalEarthquakeModel(GEM)FoundationA

UniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilience

Assessments

2ARUPClimatechange

effectsWhat

is

riskand

resilience?Applicationsand

usesForewordAcknowledgementsUserpersonasTaxonomiesGlossaryForeword“The

publication

of

this

Infrastructure

Edition

of

this

UniversalTaxonomy

for

Natural

Hazard

and

Climate

Risk

and

ResilienceAssessmentsisasignificantstepforward

in

our

collective

effort

tostrengthentheresilienceof

theinfrastructuresystemsonwhichpeopleandeconomiesdepend.FortheWorldBankGroup,whosemissionistoboostsharedprosperityandendextremepovertyon

a

liveableplanet,the

integration

of

climate

and

disaster

risk

into

infrastructureinvestmentdecisionsisnotoptional—itis

essential.Natural

hazards

and

climate

change

are

increasing

risks

toinfrastructure.Inlow-andlower-middle-incomecountries,whereinfrastructuregapsarealreadysignificant,limitedinformation

aboutexistingassetsmakesithardertounderstandwherethoserisksaregreatest.

Acommontaxonomyframeworkcreatestheconditionsformoreconsistentriskscreening,bettertargetedinvestmentdecisions,and

more

effective

use

of

limited

resources.Infrastructureowners,investors,developmentpractitioners,insurers,andgovernmentplannerseachbringtheirownterminology,methods,andexpectationstothetable.Withoutacommonframework,evenwell-intentionedriskassessmentscanbemisinterpreted,misapplied,orrenderedincomparable.Theresultisalossoftrust,a

loss

of

efficiency,and

ultimately

a

loss

of

resilience.This

is

precisely

why

thetaxonomyintroducedinthisreportmatters.Byestablishingaclear,

structured,anduniversallyapplicableclassificationsystemfornaturalhazardandclimateriskassessmentsacrossinfrastructuresystems,it

givesall

parties—producers

and

consumers

of

risk

information

alike—abasisformeaningfuldialogue.Itdefinesnotonlywhat

agiven

levelof

assessmententails,butwhatdecisionsitcanandcannot

support.Thatclarityisinvaluablewhenthestakesarehigh

andresources

are

constrained.Wecommendallwhoareworkingtowardsincreasingtheresilienceofourworld'sinfrastructure.Wehopetheseframeworks—nowexpandedfrombuildingstoincludeinfrastructuresystems—are

helpful

on

that

journey.Byestablishingaclear,

structured,anduniversallyapplicableclassificationsystemfornaturalhazardandclimateriskassessments,[thetaxonomy]givesallparties

abasisformeaningfuldialogue.RashminGunasekera,LeadDisasterRiskManagementSpecialist,PhD,MPhil(Cantab)Global

FacilityforDisasterReductionand

RecoveryattheWorld

BankA

UniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilience

Assessments

3ARUPClimatechange

effectsWhat

is

riskand

resilience?Applicationsand

usesAcknowledgementsPrefaceUserpersonasTaxonomiesGlossaryForeword“ApplicationsandusesA

UniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilience

Assessments

4SimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomyClimatechange

effectsWhat

is

riskand

resilience?WhentousethetaxonomyApplicationsand

usesAcknowledgementsUserpersonasApplicationIntroductionTaxonomiesGlossaryPurposeForewordIntroductionThereisanincreasingneedtotakeactionon

climate

adaptationin

the

builtenvironment.Variousstakeholders,frominfrastructureprofessionalstofinanciers,havebeentaskedwithleadingtheway.Yetriskandresiliencecanbehighlytechnicaltopicsandtherearelimitedresourcestohelpnon-technicalstakeholdersnavigatethepathforward.Weoftenfindthatwearenottalkingthesamelanguage,causingmis-alignmentandunmetexpectationsbetweentheconsumersandprovidersof

riskandresilienceinformationand

strategies.Ultimately,thisinhibitsthespeedandqualityof

enactingresilience

andadaptationmeasuresatthescaleneeded.Thereiscurrentlynouniversalregulatoryframeworkthatdifferentiatesbetweenlevelsortypesof

riskassessmentfornaturalhazardsandclimate

change

forinfrastructuresystems,andnocriteriagoverningwhatshouldbe

consideredadequateorappropriatefortherangeof

situationsinwhicharisk

assessmentmightberequired.TheBuildingsEdition

of

theTaxonomy,publishedin2024,establishesastructuredframeworktodifferentiatelevelsand

types

of

naturalhazard

and

climate

risk

assessments

for

buildings,addressing

the

prior

lack

ofconsistentcriteriafordefiningtheirappropriateapplication.TheUniversalTaxonomyforInfrastructurefurtherbuildsonthisapproach,providingastructuredframeworkforestablishingwhatlevels

of

risk

assessmentshouldbeundertaken,ataminimum,tomakeresilience-relateddecisionsortakeactionswithsufficientconfidencetoincreasetheresilienceof

infrastructuresystems.TheRiskClassTaxonomy

explicitlyoutlinestheriskassessmentapproaches,dataneeds,dataquality,andtypicaloutputstoachieve

a

given

Risk

Class.

Italsoincludesdetailedtaxonomiesforasubsetof

selectedhazards

(includingclimatechange)andinfrastructuresystemstosupplementthe

generalrequirementsintheRiskClassTaxonomy.TheResilienceClassTaxonomy

outlines

the

types

of

resilience

solutions

and

maturity

level

needed

toachieveagivenResilience

Class.ThesectiononUserPersonas

outlineshowtoimplementthetaxonomies

forspecificusecasesbystakeholdersinspecificroleswithinan

organization.TheSimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomy

providesahigh-levelsummaryforreferenceandcommunicationpurposes.A

UniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilience

Assessments

5

IntroductionARUPSimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomyClimatechange

effectsWhat

is

riskand

resilience?WhentousethetaxonomyApplicationsand

usesAcknowledgementsUserpersonasApplicationTaxonomiesGlossaryPurposeForewordAccuracyandconfidence

levelLowestLowMediumHighestVeryHigh•

Probabilisticriskresultsforindividualassets,components,and/orkeysystem

segments•

Spatialvisualizationof

riskindicatorsacrossindividualassetsand

locations•

Quantitativeriskmetricsof

systemperformanceanddependenciesLevel

of

effortLowestLowtoMediumMediumtoHighTypical

riskoutcomes•

Qualitativehazardratings•

Basicexposure

statistics•

Spatialvisualizationof

thehazard

exposure•

Qualitativeriskresultsforindividualassetsand/orkeysystem

segments•

Spatialvisualizationof

riskindicatorsacrossassetcategoriesand

locations•

Qualitativerisknarrativesof

systemperformanceanddependencies•

Quantitativeriskresultsforindividualassetsand/orkeysystem

segments•

Spatialvisualizationof

riskindicatorsacrossassetsub-categoriesand

locations•

Qualitativeriskmetricsof

systemperformanceanddependenciesA

UniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilience

Assessments

6System-levelprobabilisticriskmodelingof

allsignificantassetswith

explicitconsiderationof

intra-andinter-dependenciesAdvancedriskassessmenttoinformhigh-stakesdecisions,resilience-baseddesign,implementableresiliencemeasures,andcostsSimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomyQualitativehazardandexposureassessment(vulnerabilitynotmeaningfullycaptured)Quantitativeriskassessmentof

assetsub-categorieswithengineervalidationandsimplifiedsystemconsiderationsPreliminaryriskassessmentforscreening,regulatorydisclosures,andlow-stakesdecisionsQualitativeorsemi-quantitativeriskassessmentof

assetcategoriesand

(insomecases)sub-categories

SimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomyExposureassessmentforpre-screeningandminimumreportingRiskassessmentformaterialdecisions,preliminaryresilienceactions,andbudgetsEnhanced

RiskAssessmentClass2Advanced

Risk

ModelingClass

3Basic

HazardScreeningClass

0Basic

RiskScreeningClass

1ARUP

IntroductionClimatechange

effectsWhat

is

riskand

resilience?WhentousethetaxonomyApplicationsand

usesAcknowledgementsAssessmentapproachUserpersonasApplicationTaxonomiesGlossaryPurposeForewordApplicationPurposeTheRiskClassTaxonomyaddressesnaturalhazardimpactsoninfrastructureassets,systems,

andtheirusersandoperators,whiletheResilienceClassTaxonomyfocusesonintegratingresiliencesolutionsattheassetandsystemlevel.

These

taxonomies

canbeappliedtogetherorseparatelyacross

scales—fromindividualassetstoregionalornationalinfrastructure

systems.Thetaxonomiesareprimarilydesignedfornetworkedinfrastructure,enablingtheevaluationof

interconnectedsystems(suchasutilities

andtransportationnetworks),whilealsosupportingassessmentsof

discreteassets(e.g.,watertreatmentfacilities)whenusedalongsidetheBuildingsEdition

of

theTaxonomy.Thishybridapproachaccountsforimportantdifferencesinassetcharacteristics,dependencies,andsystem-levelbehavioracrossthediverserangeof

infrastructuresystemsthatcanbe

evaluated.A

UniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilience

Assessments

7

PurposeARUPSimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomyClimatechange

effectsWhat

is

riskand

resilience?WhentousethetaxonomyApplicationsand

usesAcknowledgementsUserpersonasApplicationIntroductionTaxonomiesGlossaryForewordWhentousethetaxonomyForconsumersof

riskinformation(e.g.utilityproviders,transitagencies,multi-lateraldevelopmentbanks,assetmanagers,investmentfunds),

thetaxonomiesprovide:•

Aclearframeworkforintegratingriskassessmentsintointernalprojectdevelopmentprocesses,assetmanagement,enterpriseriskmanagement,and/ordecision-makingcycles•

GuidancefordefiningappropriatetechnicalrequirementsinRequestforProposals(RFPs)orTermsof

Reference

(TORs).Aconsistentbasisforcomparingbidsorproposalsfromserviceprovidersandconsultantsofferingdifferentlevelsof

risk

assessment

or

resilience

solutions

for

the

same

RFPForproducersof

riskinformation(e.g.practitioners,consultants,serviceproviders),thetaxonomiesprovide:•

Aclearframeworktostructure,describe,

anddifferentiateservice

offerings•

Aconsistentbasisforpricingservicesalignedwith

defined

levels

of

analysis•

A

toolfordefiningscopeof

work

expectationswithprojectdevelopers,funders,orother

stakeholdersA

UniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilience

Assessments

8 WhentousethetaxonomyARUPSimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomy

ApplicationClimatechange

effectsWhat

is

riskand

resilience?Applicationsand

usesAcknowledgementsUserpersonasIntroductionTaxonomiesGlossaryPurposeForewordApplicationTheRiskClassTaxonomyidentifiesanumberof

commonapplications,includingdecisionsoractions,thatmaybesupportedbyeachRisk

Class.Theseapplicationscanlaythefoundationsforresilienceand

adaptationplansorprojectsthatalignwithagivenResilience

Class.This

journeycanbemappedtothespecificorganizationalworkflowsandneedsof

differentuserstoreflectmultipleusecases(seeUserPersonas

forfurther

details).LowerRiskClassesaregenerallyintendedforawareness,reporting,riskscreening,ordevelopmentof

preliminaryresiliencestrategies,whilehigherRiskClassesareintendedtosupporthigher-stakesresilienceandadaptationdecisions,especiallythosethatmaybecostly,invasive,ordisruptive.TheRiskClassTaxonomyoutlinesvariouslevels

of

risk

assessment

to

increaseconfidenceinmakingprogressivelymorecostlyorcomplexdecisionsasusers

embarkor

advance

in

their

journey

to

resilience.Figure

1.

Typical

user

journeyScaleSystemlevelAssetlevelA

UniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilience

Assessments

9Re-assessMonitor

&

adjust

ApplicationResilienceClass0or

1ResilienceClass3RiskClass

1RiskClass

2

or

3ARUPSimplifiedRiskClassTaxonomyClimatechange

effectsWhat

is

riskand

resilience?WhentousethetaxonomyApplicationsand

usesAcknowledgementsResilience

journeyUserpersonasDevelop

strategyQuantify

riskIntroductionTaxonomiesGlossaryImplementPurposeForewordScreenriskWhatisriskandresilience?A

UniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilience

Assessments

10Howdoyou

assess

an

infrastructuresystem?Consequencetypesandcommunication

of

riskClimatechange

effectsWhat

is

riskand

resilience?Applicationsand

usesAcknowledgementsDefiningresilienceUserpersonasDefiningriskTaxonomiesGlossaryForewordWhatisrisk?Riskistheprobabilityof

incurringagivenconsequence,wherepotentialconsequences

forinfrastructure

systems

include

damage,downtime,repaircosts,casualties,andservicedisruption.Thevariousmethods

for

assessingrisk

for

infrastructure

systems

areoutlinedintheRiskClassTaxonomy.A

riskassessmentmustintegratethefollowingelements:Figure2.

ComponentsofariskassessmentWhatarethequantities,locations,

andvalues

of

exposed

assets,users,and/oroperators?Whatservicesdoesthesystemprovide

to

surrounding

communities,economies,and/orenvironments?Howlikelyis

ahazardeventtooccur,

andwhatistheintensity?Doesthehazardvaryacrosstheinfrastructuresystem?A

UniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRiskandResilience

Assessments

11Howdamageablearetheexposedinfrastructureassetsandhow

susceptibleareusersand/oroperators?HazardRisk

DefiningriskHowdoyou

assess

aninfrastructuresystem?Consequencetypesandcommunication

of

riskClimatechange

effectsWhat

is

riskand

resilience?Applicationsand

usesVulnerabilityAcknowledgementsDefiningresilienceExposureUserpersonasTaxonomiesGlossaryForewordWhatisresilience?Resilienceistheabilitytoadaptto,withstand,and/orrecoverrapidlyfromtheeffectsofahazard.

Infrastructureresiliencereferstotherolethataninfrastructuresystemplaysinsupportinganorganizationindeliveringitscoremission,services,andfunctionality,andensuring

safe

and

accessibleconditionsforusers.TheResilienceClassTaxonomyhasbeendefinedtohelpstakeholdersunderstandtheappropriatelevelof

riskawarenessneededtoplananddesignresilienceandadaptationsolutionsfortheirspecificneeds,withprogressivelyhigherResilienceClassesrepresentingmoreconfidenceinthe

feasibility,riskreductionpotential,andcosteffectivenessof

potentialsolutions.TheResilienceClassTaxonomyisalignedwiththeRiskClassTaxonomy,asresilienceandadaptationsolutionsaretypically(thoughnotalways)informedbyidentificationof

thefactors

drivingrisk.Implementationof

themostcostlyorcomplexresiliencesolutionsrequiresdeep

insightsintothevulnerableinfrastructureassetsdrivingtherisk(i.e.,RiskClass2or3)sothat

targetedadaptationmeasurescanbedevelopedandevaluated.TheResilienceClassTaxonomyfocusesonphysicalinterventionsandoperationalmeasuresaimedatmanagingandreducingrisk,increasingadaptivecapacity,and/orcreatingredundancywithintheinfrastructuresystem.Broaderresilienceconsiderations(e.g.,environmentaldegradation,regionaleconomiclosses,socialcohesiveness)canalsobeevaluated,butthiscanbe

asignificantundertaking.Therefore,theResilienceClassTaxonomyoutlinesdifferinglevelsof

effortforincludingthesebroaderresilienceconsiderations.Foreword

What

isriskTaxonomiesUserpersonasGlossaryAcknowledgementsand

resilience?A

UniversalTaxonomyforNaturalHazardandClimateRis