麦肯锡-2025 年私募信贷 行业日趋成熟于变革中前行 Private credit in 2025 A maturing industry navigates change

Mcsey

&company

2026

GlobalPrivateMarketsReport2026

Privatecreditin2025:Amaturingindustrynavigateschange

Complexityisincreasingandcompetitivepressuresareontherise.Theassetclassisbecominglessaboutdeployingcapitalatpace—andmoreaboutdeployingitwithprecision.

byHyderKazimi,JohnSpivey,andWarrenTeichner

Privatecreditin2025:Amaturingindustrynavigateschange2

Privatecreditismaturing—andfacingnewpressuresanduncertainties.In2025,theasset

classcontinuedtonavigateamultiyeartransition,advancingfromitsearlier,relativelysimplerbeginningsasasectordominatedbyleveragedcorporatelendingtowardamorecomplex

ecosystemofdiversestrategies,vehiclestructures,andcapitalpools.It’sgrowing,butnotasfast.Andit’sfacing,potentially,themostchallengingperformanceenvironmentithasyet

experienced,withanewsetofcyclicalandstructuralrisks.

Futureoutcomesremainunclearandcouldvarysignificantly.Leadingmetricsin2025reflectthislackofequilibrium.Dealmakerssustainednear-recordoriginationvolumesin2025butdidfewer

andlargerdeals,amidintensifyingcompetitionandtighteningspreads.Strategiesbeyonddirectlending—mostnotablyasset-backedfinanceandcreditsecondaries—scaledrapidly,absorbing

capitalthatisseekingdiversificationawayfromacompressedcoremarket.Fundraisingprovedresilient,thoughitscompositioncontinuedtoevolve:Wealthandinsurancecapitalaccounted

forarisingshareofinflowsacrossamorediversesetofvehicles,reshapingthedeploymentcadenceandliabilityprofileoftheassetclass.

Yetchallengesseemtobemounting.Aseriesofdefaultsandlossesinleveragedcredithave

grabbedheadlines.Publicbusinessdevelopmentcompany(BDC)sharepricestradeddown

tolevelswellbelownetassetvalue(NAV).Liquidityconcernsemergedformanysemiliquid

vehicles.Andinearly2026,risingapprehensionoverAIanditspotentialtodisruptthesoftwareindustryreachednewheights.Thesedevelopmentshaveincreasedscrutinyoncreditquality

andmanagers’approachtoduediligence,raisingquestionsnotonlyabouttherisk–return

propositionoftheassetclassbutalsoabouttheinterlinkageswiththebroaderfinancialsystem.

Whilethischapterexaminestrendsandemergingsectoraldevelopmentsthatmayaffect

privatecredit’sprospectsinthecomingyear(andbeyond),ourreviewherefocusesprimarilyonwhatactuallyhappenedin2025.Inparticular,weexaminetheassetclassfromthe

perspectiveofthreekeygroups:dealmakers,fundraisers,andlimitedpartners(LPs).Wealsoexamineemergingopportunitiesandhighlightcapabilitiesthatareenablingleaderstogain

andsustaincompetitiveadvantage.

Directlendingvolumesinthe

UnitedStatesmoderatedin2025,withestimatedvolumedecliningbyapproximately10percentanddealcountdecliningbyabout

16percent.

Privatecreditin2025:Amaturingindustrynavigateschange3

Dealmakers:Aborrowers’market

Fordealmakers,2025representedacontinuationofmanyoftheprioryear’strends.Direct

lendingvolumesheldnearhistorichighs,evenasdealcountsslipped.Aninfluxofcapitalandhigherdeploymentexpectationsfurtheredarealignmentoflenderandborrowerrelationships

andterms.Asdeployabledealinventorytightenedagainstagrowingcapitalbase,intensifyingcompetitionputmeaningfulpressureonthecharacteristicsofnewissuances.

Dealmakingretrenches

Comprehensivedataonprivatecreditdealvolumesacrossstrategiesandgeographiesislimited

bytheopaquenatureofactivityinthesector.Evenso,thesegmentwiththeclearestdisclosure—directlending—suggeststhemarket’sdirection.DirectlendingvolumesintheUnitedStates

moderatedin2025,withestimatedvolumedecliningbyapproximately10percentanddealcountdecliningbyabout16percent(Exhibit1)1Activityneverthelessremainedwellabovepre-2024

levels,underscoringthatthemarketmodestlydippedfromelevatedlevelsratherthanprecipitouslyfell.

Exhibit1

USdirectlendingvolumesanddealcountdeclinedfrom2024to2025.

AnnualUSdirectlending

1,200

1,000

–16%

800

600

400

200

0

202020212022202320242025

Dealcount,numberofdeals

Volume,$billionOthertransactions

LBO¹volume300

–10%

250

200

150

100

50

0

202020212022202320242025

¹Leveragedbuyout.

Source:LCD2026,PitchBook

McKinsey&Company

1Dealvolumedatacandivergesignificantlydependingontheunderlyingdatabaseandtrackingmethodology.However,whilereportedfiguresfordirectlendingvolumesvary,generaltrendsbroadlyareinline,evenastotaldollaramountsdiffer.

Privatecreditin2025:Amaturingindustrynavigateschange4

Leveragedbuyout(LBO)financingsroseto$81billionin2025from$73billionin2024,thehighestlevelonrecord,evenasLBOdealcountdeclinedto214(from248).

2

Inotherwords,buyout

financinggrewthroughlargerbutfewerdeals,inlinewiththebroaderrecoveryanddirectioninprivateequity(PE)activity.Thisincreasewasmorethanoffsetbyadeclineinnon-LBOactivity,

includingrefinancingsandrecapitalizations,whichslippedbynearly20percentfromtheprioryear

3

Thatsaid,volumeremainedsubstantiallyelevatedrelativetopre-2024levelsasborrowerssoughttotakeadvantageofbettermarketterms.

Thescaleoftheshifttowardlargerdealsisstriking:AverageLBOdealsizefordirectlending,forexample,roseby29percent,reachingapproximately$380million(comparedwithabout

$295millionin2024and$200millionin2020)

4

Thistrendisalsoevidentinthe€6.5billion

unitrancherefinancingforNorwegianonlineclassifiedsgroup,Adevinta—thelargestdirect

lendingdealonrecord

5

Dealsofthatmagnitudeepitomizetheongoingup-marketmigrationofthestrategy.Thiscapabilityexpandstheaddressablemarketfordirectlendingbutalsoplacesitintomorefrequentdirectcompetitionwithprovidersofsyndicatedandpubliccredit.

Competitionintensifies

Whiledealactivityretrenchedmodestly,competitionfordealsintensified.Closed-enddirect

lendingdrypowderwasapproximately$500billionasofthefirsthalfof2025—nearall-timehighs—underscoringthescaleofcapitalcompetingforafinitesetofdeals.Thiscompetitive

dynamicisfurtheramplifiedbythegrowthofsemiliquidprivatecreditvehicles.Becausethesevehiclesraisecapitalcontinuously(insteadofcallingcapitalasneeded),managersareundergreaterpressuretodeployrapidlytobegingeneratingyield.

Competitionfrombanksandthebroadlysyndicatedloan(BSL)marketalsosharpened.

Traditionallendersareincreasinglycompetingnotonlyasfacilitatorsofsyndicateddebtbutasdirectprincipals.Forexample,J.P.Morgancarvedouta$50billionsleeveofitsownbalance

sheettooriginateprivate-credit-styleloansinabidtocompetedirectlywithnonbankmanagersonspeed,certaintyofexecution,andholdsize

6

Moreover,newBSLissuancesremained

nearrecordhighs,

7

andrefinancingflowsbetweenthetwomarketsapproachednear-parity.Approximately$37billionofBSLloansrefinancedintodirectlending,while$34billionof

directlendingloansmovedintheotherdirection

8

Thatmarksaclearbreakfromprioryears,whenflowswerelargelyone-directionalfromBSLtodirectlending.

2McKinseyanalysisbasedonPitchBookLCDdata.

3McKinseyanalysisbasedonPitchBookLCDdata.

4McKinseyanalysisbasedonvolumeanddealcountdatafromPitchBookLCD;averagedealsizecalculatedastotalvolumedividedbydealcount.

5“BlackstoneandPermiraweighdebtoptionsfor€6.5bnAdevintadeal,”PrivateEquityWire,February27,2025.

6“J.P.Morganincreasesdirectlendingcommitmentto$50billion,”J.P.Morganpressrelease,February24,2025.

7USPrivateCreditMonitor,PitchBook,January2026.

8McKinseyanalysisbasedonPitchBookLCDdata;TaronWade,“Europeandirectlendingslows,withrefinancingflowsbalancedbetweenkeymarkets,”PitchBook,November20,2025.

Privatecreditin2025:Amaturingindustrynavigateschange5

Ascompetitionfordealsintensified,pricingandtermscontinuedtoshiftinfavorofborrowers.

Spreadcompressionisthemostvisibleindicationofthistrend:Afterpeakingat716basis

pointsinMarch2023,globalnew-issue,directloanmedianspreadsfellto666basispointsat

year-end2023,596basispointsatyear-end2024,and544basispointsatyear-end2025

(Exhibit2)9Up-frontfeeeconomicsalsodeclined;originationpricesroseto99.1percentofpar

(from98.4percentin2023)10Togetherwithdecliningbaserates(three-monthsecured

overnightfinancingrateaveraged4.35percentin2025,downfrom5.27percentin2024),

theseshiftspushedall-innew-issueyieldsin2025downtoapproximately9.3percent,adeclinefrom10.5percentin202411Leverageratiosonnew-issuetransactionshavenotdeclined

commensurately;averaging4.9timesEBITDAin2025,comparedwith5.0timesEBITDAin2024and5.2timesEBITDAin202312

Loandocumentationhasbecomemoreborrower-friendlyaswell,especiallyattheupperendof

themarket,whichcompetesdirectlywithsyndicatedfinancingpackages.Overall,covenant-litetransactionsroseto21percentofdirectlendingdealsin2025,upfrom4percentin202313

Exhibit2

Firstlienspreadperunitofleveragehasdeclinedsince2022.

Globalprivatecreditfirstlien

New-issuespread,basispoints

800

600

400

200

0

June

2022

June

2023

Dec

2023

Dec

2022

June

2025

Dec

2025

June

2024

Dec

2024

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

June

2022

New-issuemedianleverage,turns

June

2023

Dec

2023

Dec

2022

June

2025

Dec

2025

June

2024

Dec

2024

Source:KrollStepStonePrivateCreditBenchmarks

McKinsey&Company

9KrollStepStonePrivateCreditBenchmarks,globalnew-issuespreaddata,2023–25.

10KrollStepStonePrivateCreditBenchmarks,new-issueoriginationpricebyregion(aspercentofpar).

11“10-yeartreasuryconstantmaturityrate,”FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis,April11,2026.

12KrollStepStonePrivateCreditBenchmarks,new-issuemedianleverage,globaldata.

13SamiVukelj,“Despitecovenant-litetrend,lenderprotectionsarestrongerinprivatecreditthaninBSLmarket–Proskauer,”PitchBook,February12,2026;15thAnnualPrivateCreditInsightsReport,ProskauerRose,February2026.

Privatecreditin2025:Amaturingindustrynavigateschange6

Fundraisers:Theevolutionofcapitalformation

Bytraditionalfundraisingmetrics,privatecreditsoftenedin2025:closed-endfundraisingfell

16percentyearoveryeartoapproximately$165billion(Exhibit3).14Thiscontinuedamultiyear

contractioninclosed-endfundraisingdatingbackto2021andmirrored,albeitsomewhatlessstarkly,thedeclineseeninprivateequityoverthesameperiod(–9percentversus–12percent

perannum,respectively).Increasingly,however,agrowingshareofprivatecreditcapitalformationisoccurringoutsidetheclosed-endstructurestrackedbytraditionalfundraisingstatistics.

BybroadeningthescopetoincludeBDCs,evergreenfunds,intervalfunds,insurancemandates,andotherpermanent-capitalvehicles,adifferentstoryemerges:oneofastructuralshiftin

howcapitalenterstheassetclass,ratherthanaretreatfromit.

Trendsacrossprivatecreditstrategiesandregions

Fundraisingtrendsforclosed-endfundsvariedmeaningfullybystrategy.Directlendingfunds

fell28percent,15likelydriveninpartbythestrategy’sprevalenceinopen-end-fundstructures,aswellasbyashiftininvestorpreferencesawayfromamorecompetitivemarketsegment.

Exhibit3

Privatecreditclosed-endfundraisingdeclined16percentin2025.

growth%

Globalclosed-endprivatecreditfundraising,1bystrategy,$billion2024–25

,

Total–16

Venturedebt7

Mezzanine26

Specialsituations–37

Distresseddebt179

Directlending–28

203

31

37

53

82

239

18

28

29

163

20112013201520172019202120232025

195

7

31

11

145

165

9

20

31

104

150

29

19

21

81

133

33

20

34

45

156

9

29

17

98

227

223

32

40

34

10

148

120

24

12

26

55

30

22

127

141

13

30

20

74

77

15

11

25

24

68

14

16

23

16

76

10

19

15

32

43

12

9

15

6

Note:Figuresmaynotsumtototals,becauseofrounding.1Excludessecondariesandfundsoffunds.

Source:Preqin

McKinsey&Company

14McKinseyanalysisinExhibit3basedonPreqindata.

15McKinseyanalysisinExhibit3basedonPreqindata.

Privatecreditin2025:Amaturingindustrynavigateschange7

Collectively,strategiesoutsidedirectlendingshowedyear-over-yeargrowthof22percentfrom

2024to2025.Distresseddebtledtheway,surgingnearly180percent6anchoredbythelargestdistresseddebtfundinhistory,OaktreeCapitalManagement’s$16billionOpportunitiesFund

XII17Growinginterestinthestrategymayindicatethatinvestorsanticipateattractivedistressedopportunitiestoarisein2026.Mezzaninefundraisingreboundedapproximately26percent

afterasharp80percentdeclinein2024,andspecialsituationfundsdeclined37percentyearoveryear,largelyreflectinganormalizationafteranoutsize2024.Bothmezzanineandspecialsituationsstrategiesarehighlyconcentratedandcanexperiencesignificantyear-to-year

volatilitybasedonthetimingofasmallnumberoflargefundclosures18

Privatecreditfundraisingforclosed-endfundsdeclinedacrossallmajorregionsin2025,reflectingabroad-basedglobalmoderationincapitalraising.NorthAmericaremainedthelargestmarket,

accountingfor64percentofglobalfundraising,followedbyEuropeat32percent.NorthAmericaandEuropeanclosed-endfundraisinghavefollowedasimilarmultiyeartrend,decliningatCAGRsof–8percentand–9percent,respectively,since2021.

Marketconcentrationandadvantagesofscale

Eveninasofterfundraisingmarket,scaledmanagerscontinuedtoraiserecord-sizevehicles,

underscoringthatcapitalisbeingconcentratedinfewerhands.Forexample,AresManagementraised€17.1billioninLPcommitmentsforitssixthflagshipEuropeanfund,markingthelargest

closed-endprivatecreditvehicleeveronthebasisofLPcommitments19

Indeed,privatecreditfundraisingforclosed-endfundsin2025continuedtotrendtoward

concentration(Exhibit4).Thetop25managersaccountedforapproximately72percent

oftotalfundraising,

20

andthesevenlargestprivatecreditplatformsincreasedassetsunder

management(AUM)atapproximately20percentannuallyfrom2022to2025,outpacing

theoverallmarket21Whatisclearisthatscalemattersconsiderably.Itenablesbroaderproduct

offerings,timelierliquidity,andlargerdiversifiedholds—capabilitiesthatsmallermanagerscanoftenstruggletoreplicate.

Wealthchannelandintermittent-liquidityvehicles

Privatecreditcapitalformationisincreasinglytakingplaceoutsidetheclosed-endstructuresthattraditionalfundraisingstatisticscapture.Ouranalysisindicatesthatevergreenandopen-

endprivatecreditAUMgrewapproximately27percentyearoveryearin2025,withgrowthacrossBDCs,intervalfunds,andtenderoffervehicles.

Manyofthesevehiclesarestructuredtoprovideintermittentliquidity—typicallythroughquarterlyredemptionwindows—inordertobettersuitinvestorsinthewealthchannel.Managershaveoftenreferredtocapitalraisedinthewealthchannelas“permanent,”andindeedthecapitalhas

historicallyprovenfairlysticky.Adifferentdynamicemergedinlate2025,however,asconcernsovercreditqualityandbroadermarketsentimentpromptedasharpincreaseinredemption

activity.BasedonananalysisofBDCsbyFitchRatings,redemptionsinthefourthquarterof2025nearlytripledoverthepriorquarter,averaging4.5percentofNAV.FiveBDCsreceived(and

honored)redemptionrequestsinexcessoftheir5percentquarterlycaps.Therushtowithdraw

16McKinseyanalysisinExhibit3basedonPreqindata.

17ChrisCumming,“Oaktreecloseslargestdistressed-debtfundeverraised,”WallStreetJournal,February11,2025.

18McKinseyanalysisinExhibit3basedonPreqindata.

19“AresManagementraises€30billionforEuropeandirectlendingstrategy,”AresManagementpressrelease,January14,2025.

20McKinseyanalysisbasedonPreqindata,accessedApril2026.

21McKinseyanalysisbasedonavailableannualfilingsandinvestorpresentations.

Exhibit4

Privatecreditin2025:Amaturingindustrynavigateschange8

Privatecreditfundraisingforclosed-endfundsin2025continuedtotrendtowardconcentration.

Shareofannualclosed-endprivatecreditfundraising,1%

Note:“Top”referstoleadingmanagerbyclosed-endfundraisingvolumefortherespectiveyear.

1Excludessecondariesandfundsoffunds.Source:Preqin

Top518

Top6–1011

Top11–2524

Top26–10036

Long-tailmanagers112019

37

13

22

27

1

2025

26

11

22

32

9

2022

McKinsey&Company

capitalcontinuedtoaccelerateinthefirstquarterof2026andisshapinguptobeoneofthe

primetestsfortheassetclassoverthecomingyear,particularlyformanagersthathavesourcedalargeportionoftheircapitalbasefromthewealthchannel22

Insurancepartnerships

Insuranceandprivatecreditcontinuedtoconvergein2025,drivenbyastructuralalignment:

Privatecredithashistoricallyofferedthepredictable,yield-generatingcashflowsinsurersseek,whileinsurershaveprovidedstable,long-durationcapitalthatreducesmanagers’dependenceoncyclicalfundraising.Partnershipscontinuedtoproliferatein2025:MetLifeInvestment

ManagementacquiredPineBridgeInvestments,23andManulifeacquireda75percentstakeinComvestCreditPartners24

Thetrendisarguablystillintheearlyinnings:GoldmanSachsAssetManagement’s2025GlobalInsuranceSurveyfoundprivatecredittobethemostin-demandexposureforinsurance

chiefinvestmentofficersrepresenting$14trillioninassets,with58percentplanningtoincreaseallocations.Notably,muchofthiscapitalisflowingintoinvestment-gradestrategiesand

structures,with40percentofinsurersplanningtoincreaseallocationstoinvestment-gradeprivatecredit,and36percenttoasset-backedfinance,reflectinginsurers’preferencefor

investment-grade-ratedriskandpositioningthemasakeycatalystforprivatecredit’songoingexpansionbeyondleveragedlending25

22“Perpetuallynon-tradedBDCsseehigherredemptions,slowerfundraising,”FitchRatings,February17,2026.

23“MetLifeInvestmentManagementcompletesacquisitionofPineBridgeInvestments,”MetLifepressrelease,December30,2025.

24“ManulifecompletesacquisitionofComvestCreditPartners,”PRNewswire,November3,2025.

25GreatPivot:14thAnnualGlobalInsuranceSurvey,GoldmanSachsAssetManagement,March2025.

Privatecreditin2025:Amaturingindustrynavigateschange9

Limitedpartners:Convictionthroughthetransition

In2025,LPsnavigatedamarketwheretheconsistencythathaddefinedprivatecreditoverthepastdecadegavewaytomorevariedconditions.Aseriesofnotabledefaultsandamodestrise

incertaincreditqualityindicatorspromptedincreasedscrutinyofexistingportfoliosforpotentialsoftness.Despitetheseconcerns,privatecredit’sperformancein2025heldlargelyinlinewith

historicallevels.

Performanceheldsteady

Poolednetinternalrateofreturn(IRR)forprivatecreditwas8.5percentin2025,compared

with7.0percentfor2024.Despitedecliningnew-issueyieldsandmountingconcernsofhigherdefaultsandlosses,theassetclasscontinuedtoperformwell.

Privatecredit’s2025performancebroadlytrackswiththeassetclass’slong-termperformance—medianIRRfor2013–2022vintageswas8.8percent.Returndispersionremainedthenarrowestofallprivatemarketassetclasses,witha5.1-percentage-pointspreadbetweentop-and

bottom-quartilemanagers—comparedtoapproximately14.3percentagepointsinprivateequityand6.7ininfrastructure26Acrossstrategies,absolutereturnsaswellasdispersionaresmallerinstrategiessuchasdirectlendingandasset-basedlendingbuthigherinmorerisk-seeking

strategiessuchasopportunisticanddistressedcredit(Exhibit5).Managerselectionbecomesincreasinglycriticalasinvestorsmoveuptheriskcurve.

Exhibit5

Privatecreditreturnsvaryacrossstrategies.

Performancebyprivatecreditstrategy,medianIRRandpercentilespreadsfor2013–22vintagefunds,1%

Top25%

Median

Bottom25%

Allprivatecredit

5.1

8.8

6.7

11.8

Directlending

4.5

9.2

6.9

11.4

Opportunistic/distressed

5.7

9.5

7.0

12.8

10.6

8.3

4.6

6.0

Asset-basedlending

1IRRspreadscalculatedforseparatevintageyearsfor2013–22andthenaveragedout.MedianIRRwascalculatedbytakingtheaverageofthemedianIRRforfundswithineachvintageyear.NetIRRtodatethroughDec31,2025.

Source:MSCIPrivateCapitalSolutions

McKinsey&Company

26MSCIPrivateCapitalSolutions(formerlyBurgiss),accessedMarch2025.

Privatecreditin2025:Amaturingindustrynavigateschange10

Themetricsusedtoassessthehealthofprivatecreditportfolios—andthereforetheoutlookforfutureperformance—haveimportantstructurallimitations.Mostimportant,theyreflectportfolioconditionsfromonetotwoquartersagoandmaynotcapturecurrentconditions.

Nevertheless,availableindicatorsofunderlyingcreditqualityappearedlargelywithinhistoricalrangesin2025.Globalmedianinterestcoverageforseniorandsubordinatedcorporatedebt

improvedto2.09timesEBITDAinthethirdquarterof2025,upfrom1.83timesEBITDAayearearlier.

27

Cliffwaterreportsthatpayment-in-kindincomeasapercentageoftotalinvestment

incomeindirectlendingdeclinedto7.3percentinthefourthquarterof2025from8.1percentayearearlier,broadlyinlinewith2022–23levels28Andwhilemanagersdidmarkpositions

downslightlyinthefourthquarter,theshareofloansmarkedbelow90remainedwithinrecenthistoricalranges.Atyear-end2025,approximately5.5percentofUSfirst-liencreditloans

weremarkedbelow90(5.4percentglobally),upfrom4.9percent(4.6percentglobally)atyear-end202429ThislevelremainssignificantlylessseverethanduringtheCOVID-19pandemic.

Investorappetitebifurcates

InstitutionalLPconvictioninprivatecreditremainsfirm.McKinsey’sJanuary2026LPSurveyfoundthat40percentofLPsplantoincreaseprivatecreditallocationsoverthenext12months(versus26percentwhoplantodecrease)—upfrom38percentwhoplannedtoincrease

intheprioryearandexceedingtheshareplanningtoincreaseprivateequityorrealestatecommitments30Thispositivesentimentsignalsthatprivatecredit’sseniorpositionin

thecapitalstructure,predictableincomeprofile,andnarrowreturndispersioncontinuetoappealtoinstitutionalinvestors,atleastthroughthebeginningofthiscalendaryear.

Thepictureismurkierforthewealthchannel,wheremomentumhasstalled.Netinflowswere

positiveoverthecourseof2025,despitethespikeinredemptionrequests,butthetrajectoryoffundraisingthusfarin2026suggeststhatthatgrowthmaystallorreverse.PrivatecreditcapitalheldinsemiliquidstructuresnowrepresentssignificantportionsoftheAUMofseverallarge

managers,whichhaveinvestedheavilytoraisecapitalinthewealthchanneloverthepastfiveyears.Thedurabilityofthiscapitalhasbecomeacentralquestionfortheassetclassin2026.

Privatecreditonnewterrain

Asprivatecreditmatures,itisexpandingtonewareasofthefinancingeconomy,meetingtheneedsofinvestorswhoseekgreaterdiversificationandprovidingsolutionsfornewclassesof

borrowers.Twoprominentgrowthareasareasset-backedfinance(ABF)andcreditsecondaries.

Asset-backedfinance

Inpriorreports,we’vetrackedprivatecredit’slong-termexpansionintoABF,atrendwhich

progressedsignificantlyin202531Basedonavailabledatafordealvolumeandperformance,weestimatethatclosed-endfundsthatpursueABFopportunities

32

raisedapproximately

$27.1billionthrough2025tocapture16.4percentofallclosed-endprivatecreditfundraising33

27KrollStepStonePrivateCreditBenchmarks.

28CliffwaterDirectLendingIndex(CDLI),fourthquarter2025report.

29KrollStepStonePrivateCreditBenchmarks.

30McKinseyGlobalLimitedPartners(LP)Survey,January2026(n=296);40percentofLPsplantoincreaseprivatecreditallocationsoverthenext12months,upfrom38percentintheprioryearsurvey.

31“

Thenexteraofprivatecredit

,”McKinsey,September12,2024.

32ABF-focusedfundsareclassifiedwithinandacrosstheprimaryprivatecreditstrategiesshowninExhibit3(suchasdirectlendingormezzanine)andarenotbrokenoutasaseparatecategoryinthatview.

33McKinseyanalysisbasedonPreqindata,accessedApril2026.

Privatecreditin2025:Amaturingindustrynavigateschange11

That’sanotablejumpfroma10.6percentmarketsharein202434Includingcapitalraised

forrealestateandinfrastructurecreditfunds(whichiscategorizedundertheirrespectiveassetclasses),ABFfundraisingtotaled$70billionin2025.Whilethatgrowthillustratesthegrowing

prevalenceofABFclosed-endfunds,itunderstatesthescaleofmanagedassetsintheprivateABFmarketasawhole,muchofwhichisbackedbyinsurance-linkedandotherformsofcapital

thatarenotcapturedintraditionalfundraisingstatistics.

ThestrategicsignificanceofABFextendsbeyondrecentfundraisingtrends.Theaddressable

marketforprivatecreditintheUnitedStatesalone

couldexceed$30trillion

—withABF,

infrastructure,residentialmortgages,andcommercialrealestateamongtheassetclassesmostlikelytotransitionfrombankbalancesheetstononbanklenders35Anestimated$5trillionto

$6trillionofsuchassetscouldshiftintothenonbankecosystemoverthenextdecade,dramaticallyexpandingprivatecredit’sfootprint.Thisdevelopmentisalsofueledbymegatrendsin

digitalization,decarbonization,anddeglobalization,whichareprojectedtodrive

$106trillion

ininfrastructureinvestment

overthenext14years36Infrastructurecredithasemergedasa

particularlyfast-growingsegmentofABF,drivenbytheenormous