银行业三季报前瞻：稳中向好分化延续

目录索引一、本期观察：A股行下跌，H股银行优于A股 6二、投资建议：银业三季报瞻：稳中向好，分延续 6三、板块表现：银板块下跌周度换手率回落 11四、个股表现：个普遍下跌国有大行较为稳健 16五、转债表现：本银行转债均价格下跌0.64% 24六、盈利预测跟踪：26年利速一致预期基本不变 27七、风险提示 31图表索引图1：银行板块和场指数表现 7图2：银行板块表复盘 7图3：分板块超额益复盘 8图4：分板块绝对益情况 8图5：2026Q2末公募金持+北向仓VS本期市场涨跌（%） 9图6：归母净润TTM同比速（最新可得）VS本期场跌幅（%） 9图7：2025Q4末公募金持+北向仓VS年初以来市场幅（%） 10图8：归母净润TTM同比速（最新可得）VS年初来场涨跌幅（%） 10图9：银行板块、Wind全A金融石油石化指数现（周涨幅） 11图10：银板块、Wind全A金融石油石化指数现（周涨幅） 12图11：市率：银行 15图12：相市盈率：银/Wind全A非金融石油化 15图13：市率：银行 15图14：相市净率：银/Wind全A非金融石油化 15图15：股率：银行 15图16：相股息率：银/Wind全A非金融石油化 15图17：银转债绝对收与对收益（元） 25图18：银转债、银行块可转债指数累计收率 25图19：银转债债性股一（截至2026年9月18日） 25图20：银转债价位估一（截至2026年9月18日） 26图21：所银行净利润速测（2026E） 29图22：所银行营收增预（2026E） 29图23：国银行净利润速测（2026E） 29图24：国银行营收增预（2026E） 29图25：股行净利润增预（2026E） 30图26：股行营收增速测（2026E） 30图27：城行净利润增预（2026E） 30图28：城行营收增速测（2026E） 30图29：农行净利润增预（2026E） 30图30：农行营收增速测（2026E） 30TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u表1：中信一级行区间涨跌情况（周） 13表2：中信一级行区间换手情况（周） 14表3：上市银行区涨跌幅情（周） 17表4：上市银行区换手率情（周） 19表5：上市银行绝/相对估股息率及所处分位况 21表6：A+H上银行AH溢价及所处分位情况 23表7：银行转债关信息一览 24表8：银行转债区涨跌幅情（周） 24表9：银行转债区换手率情（周） 24表10：A股市银行净利速预测跟踪（2026E） 27表11：A股市银行营收预测跟踪（2026E） 28一、本期观察：A股银行下跌，H股银行优于A股本期观察区间：2026/9/14-2026/9/18。本文数据来源于Wind数据。板块表现方面（图9-16，表1-2）：本期（2026/9/14-2026/9/18），Wind全A上涨1.7%，银行板块整体（1.7%26A0.2%，H1.0%A股银行。表A3.59%3.50%。H0.62%0.35%-0.37%渤海银行下跌4.73%、重庆银行下跌4.05%、中国光大银行下跌3.15%。（1.68（下跌0.38%）（下跌0.56%）（下跌0.65%）。（626（26-0.08pct、0.05pct。二、投资建议：银行业三季报前瞻：稳中向好，分化延续分化延续特征：AICK图1：银行板块和市场指数表现绝对收益行情区间表现(4.01-7.14)30.3%26.8%30.3%26.8%25.4%26.6%22.1%5.7%4.1%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心，注：银行指数为Wind行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行图2：银行板块表现复盘5.201年及5年LPR均下调10BP，六大行下调存款挂牌

9.18美联储宣布降息25bp9.3举办抗战胜利80周年阅兵…

相对收益 银行(申万)30.0% 利率

8.137月社融数据回升

9.23央行召开三季度货币政策例会5.7国新办发布会介绍“一8.4

10.159月社融微降2展动方案》

利息收入征收增值税6.20局共同推动跨境支付通

10.28上证指数突破4000点11.1310月社融公布，存款搬家继续5.5习主席同特朗普通电话10.0%0.0%

6.18陆家嘴金融论坛聚焦“全球经济变局中的金融开放合作与高质量发展”12.1211月社融公布

1.1512月社融公布4.10CPI数据公布，同比+1.0%8.147月社融公布，社融增速环比4.2美国关税政策落地

7.15上半年GDP为66.05万亿元，同比+5.3%

5.144月社融公布 持平

4.25政治局会议:加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，适时降准降息

1.9元旦假期后上证指数高涨，突破4100点2.11央行发布25Q4货币政策报告

9.148月社融公布，信贷增6.125降速，存款活化延续-30.0%

3.132月社融公布7.156月社融公布，社融增速环比微降数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心；注：银行指数为Wind行业指数:银行图3：分板块超额收益复盘

国有大行(相对) 股份行(相对) 城商行(相对)农商行(相对) 银行(申万) 高利润增速银行(相对)12月12月-25年3月：1月-5月： 5月-8月：8-9月月-11月：-复苏行情-银行板块普涨 -大行防御-板块-相对收益减弱-优质区域行领涨价值再现回调-区域行表现较好4月-：-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨20.0%0.0%-20.0%2023-122024-012023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-012026-022026-032026-042026-052026-062026-072026-08数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心；银行指数为中信行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行，高利润增速银行为净利润同比增速处于上市银行前1/5的银行图4：分板块绝对收益情况100.0%

国有大行(绝对) 股份行(绝对) 城商行(绝对)农商行(农商行(绝对) 银行(申万)1月-5月：-银行板块普涨5月-8月：-大行防御8-9月：9月-11月：12月-25年3月：4月-：高利润增速银行(绝对)-板块-相对收益减弱-复苏行情-优质区域行领涨价值再现 回调-区域行表现较好-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%2023-122024-012023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-012026-022026-032026-042026-052026-062026-072026-08数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心；银行指数为中信行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行，高利润增速银行为净利润同比增速处于上市银行前1/5的银行图5：2026Q2末公募基金持仓+北向持仓VS本期市场涨跌幅（%）中信光大中信光大02国阳瑞兰州青农浙商安华夏苏州上海州岛民生苏农江苏南京厦门齐鲁宁波渝农成都张家港建设商长沙14121086平安丰0.00本期涨跌幅（%本期涨跌幅（%）-2.00-3.00-4.00-5.00-6.00

基金+外资持股/自由流通股(%,2026Q2）数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图6：归母净利润TTM同比增速（最新可得）VS本期市场涨跌幅（%）6.004.002.00中信光大0.00-36.004.002.00中信光大0.00-30沪农平安中国工商0瑞丰交通兰州 兴业江阴上长华贵阳10青农常熟2030-2.00招商郑州渝农农业宁波浦发杭州民生建设-4.00成都西安张家港江苏苏农南京重庆齐鲁-6.00厦门无锡邮储苏州青岛浙商-1北京0紫金-20本期涨跌幅（%）数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图7：2025Q4末公募基金持仓+北向持仓VS年初以来市场涨跌幅（%）西安张家港苏州平西安张家港苏州平0贵阳光大北京华夏412108成都6兰州2郑州常熟交通杭州瑞丰安齐鲁青农紫金邮储建设渝农招商银行苏农 长江苏兴业青岛江阴中国南京浙商无锡宁波重庆沪农浦发50403020100-10-20数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图8：归母净利润TTM同比增速（最新可得）VS年初以来市场涨跌幅（%）兴业南京兴业南京江阴长沙招商中国江苏0华夏25201510邮储5成都郑州交通齐鲁杭州常熟青农贵阳苏州苏农西安无锡银行瑞丰青岛重庆宁波浦发建设沪农50403020100-20数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心三、板块表现：银行板块下跌，周度换手率回落（2026/9/14-2026/9/18）（1.70%3026WindA（）3.80（0.1230个中信一级30。估值：20260918（TTM）7.26X（最新（银行/Wind（TTM）为0.19，最新相对市净率为0.26，均处在历史平均水平。图9：银行板块、Wind全A非金融石油石化指数表现（周涨跌幅）

Wind全A非金融、石油石化（周涨跌幅）银行（周涨跌幅，右轴）12(Wind全A非金融、石油石化（周涨跌幅12周期移动平均(银行（周涨跌幅，右轴）)

4.00%3.50%

3.00%8.94%2.50%8.00% 2.00%6.00%

1.50%1.23%4.00% 1.00%2.00% 0.50%0.00% 0.00%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图10：银行板块、Wind全A非金融石油石化指数表现（周涨跌幅）15,000

Wind全A指数（非金融、石油石化）中信银行指数中信银行指数/Wind全A非金融、石油石化（右轴）

2.0013,000 1.8011,000 1.609,000 1.407,000 1.205,000 1.003,000 0.80数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心表1：中信一级行业区间涨跌幅情况（周）2026/9/182026/9/112026/9/42026/8/282026/8/212026/8/142026/8/7年初以来电子6.09%1.36%-5.32%0.07%-2.71%0.42%12.46%37.32%通信3.54%7.21%-4.10%-3.22%-1.31%4.63%9.45%36.42%机械3.19%-1.11%-1.08%0.67%-1.48%0.80%9.05%2.11%医药3.17%-3.74%-1.90%-1.48%-2.44%1.74%6.11%-4.20%房地产2.96%-3.38%-0.97%3.13%-1.82%2.25%3.08%-12.88%基础化工2.51%-1.97%-4.21%2.20%-0.69%-0.43%7.50%0.65%纺织服装2.42%-3.26%1.00%2.17%-1.65%1.53%3.04%-5.37%建材2.11%3.17%-4.16%1.68%-3.68%0.05%9.33%15.14%计算机1.80%-4.09%0.10%1.11%-5.22%-0.47%7.03%-14.45%轻工制造1.71%-2.74%0.50%2.99%-1.88%0.99%4.49%-12.31%汽车1.69%-3.04%-1.26%0.97%-1.46%-0.39%0.69%-20.28%综合0.31%-1.46%-1.35%3.45%-2.47%1.89%2.28%-21.70%交通运输-0.02%-0.76%0.04%1.31%1.66%-1.46%-1.29%-6.99%建筑-0.09%-1.18%-0.39%2.66%-1.20%-0.14%1.24%-9.55%食品饮料-0.46%-3.71%1.48%1.39%-3.83%1.51%-2.69%-13.51%有色金属-0.51%-2.82%-5.05%1.74%2.71%-3.31%11.01%-2.36%电力及公用事业-0.66%0.16%0.16%1.70%-1.83%-0.12%-0.09%2.95%家电-0.76%-1.58%1.00%1.22%0.24%-0.23%-2.08%-3.52%钢铁-0.78%-1.32%-0.92%2.84%-0.30%-1.13%0.12%-17.11%非银行金融-0.79%-4.17%1.59%3.91%-0.59%-1.60%-1.48%-13.86%电力设备及新能源-1.02%-3.17%-3.18%-2.96%-1.91%0.57%3.54%-15.41%传媒-1.07%-2.99%5.91%0.40%-5.76%-0.12%2.70%-16.80%消费者服务-1.26%-2.19%2.42%3.41%-1.37%-0.82%0.54%-24.47%国防军工-1.26%1.63%2.00%1.53%-4.53%0.41%6.47%-22.41%商贸零售-1.42%-1.83%1.14%4.19%-1.37%-0.20%1.88%-15.81%银行-1.70%0.17%4.08%-0.09%2.36%-0.10%-3.61%2.05%综合金融-1.81%-6.55%3.82%5.88%-0.71%-1.99%-0.70%-24.52%石油石化-2.62%-1.81%-2.03%3.21%5.29%-0.96%2.09%5.01%农林牧渔-2.89%-1.80%3.04%5.97%1.46%-0.11%-0.08%-13.22%煤炭-3.06%-0.68%-3.21%5.03%1.54%1.51%1.30%17.77%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心表2：中信一级行业区间换手率情况（周）2026/9/182026/9/112026/9/42026/8/282026/8/212026/8/142026/8/7年初以来农林牧渔21.25%30.40%23.98%18.81%21.83%11.89%11.55%506.52%电子16.27%13.79%13.90%15.08%19.08%17.60%20.53%719.10%消费者服务16.18%20.77%17.48%13.57%9.86%12.38%16.75%476.26%建材12.16%10.81%10.95%9.42%10.17%10.90%11.69%454.66%基础化工12.10%13.85%13.96%13.08%13.23%12.72%13.39%571.70%传媒11.81%17.49%22.45%10.19%12.84%20.58%23.43%651.12%轻工制造11.32%12.15%13.60%10.81%9.58%10.81%11.42%480.56%计算机10.97%11.20%13.97%11.79%13.28%16.46%20.01%617.96%汽车10.70%7.85%7.71%7.06%6.98%7.50%9.36%356.96%电力设备及新能源10.36%9.68%10.21%10.44%10.71%12.51%14.00%618.01%商贸零售10.30%14.51%13.59%9.97%9.82%9.87%9.03%368.10%综合10.17%12.70%9.75%10.84%15.96%15.59%9.96%407.73%通信9.44%8.84%7.95%8.96%9.71%10.21%11.43%388.68%国防军工9.38%10.99%10.53%7.65%9.25%9.91%10.61%561.84%机械9.11%10.30%11.04%10.63%10.81%11.27%11.95%474.70%医药8.93%10.28%11.21%14.51%16.95%17.40%11.85%394.98%有色金属8.84%11.63%12.20%15.52%13.19%15.70%14.98%557.12%综合金融8.67%16.36%14.53%11.56%7.23%6.32%8.23%376.17%房地产7.74%9.99%13.38%8.47%9.24%10.11%8.33%346.58%纺织服装7.49%8.05%9.24%8.10%8.11%8.91%9.37%358.71%食品饮料6.93%9.53%9.28%8.56%10.86%10.61%9.43%298.12%煤炭6.66%8.93%9.98%8.70%7.63%6.63%7.33%346.46%电力及公用事业5.72%5.99%5.24%5.05%5.54%7.40%7.10%316.12%家电5.68%6.83%9.01%7.39%7.15%6.71%6.94%326.65%建筑4.69%5.78%6.19%5.91%6.00%6.21%6.21%297.05%钢铁3.66%4.79%4.44%4.74%3.92%4.58%5.24%255.22%交通运输3.57%3.96%3.96%3.64%3.30%3.16%3.75%158.01%非银行金融2.62%3.83%4.81%4.48%3.10%3.39%3.67%166.64%石油石化2.10%2.79%2.82%2.63%2.60%2.26%2.35%126.93%银行1.23%1.36%1.79%1.40%1.33%1.16%1.70%49.25%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图11：盈率银行 图12：对市率：行/Wind全A非融石油化

均值均值+1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差99%分位1%分位

2019/112020/052020/112019/112020/052020/112021/052021/112022/052022/112023/052023/112024/052024/112025/052025/112026/05

均值 均值+1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差 99%分1%分位数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图13：净率银行 图14：对市率：行/Wind全A非融石油化

均值均值+1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差99%分位1%分位

2019/112020/052020/112019/112020/052020/112021/052021/112022/052022/112023/052023/112024/052024/112025/052025/112026/05

均值 均值+1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差 99%分1%分位2019/112020/052020/112021/052021/112022/052019/112020/052020/112021/052021/112022/052022/112023/052023/112024/052024/112025/052025/112026/05图15：息率银行 图16：对股率：行/Wind全A非融石油化2019/112020/052019/112020/052020/112021/052021/112022/052022/112023/052023/112024/052024/112025/052025/112026/05

均值 均值+1倍标准均值-1倍标准差 99%分1%分位

2019/112020/052020/112019/112020/052020/112021/052021/112022/052022/112023/052023/112024/052024/112025/052025/112026/05

均值 均值+1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差 99%分1%分位数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心四、个股表现：个股普遍下跌，国有大行较为稳健（-1.04%-1.72%、-2.40%、-1.76%，国有大行较为稳健。8.54%8.50%7.61%（中信三级行业）0.61%、1.84%3.33%4.68%，城农估值：（）（TTM）7.90X、5.95X6.21X5.89X0.75X0.53X0.68X0.56X分别为1.09、0.82、0.86、0.81，最新相对市净率（LF）分别为1.09、0.77、0.99、0.81。2026/9/182026/9/182026/9/112026/9/42026/8/282026/8/212026/8/142026/8/7年初以来光大银行0.00%-0.98%0.66%0.33%0.67%-1.64%-3.79%-8.81%交通银行-0.27%0.81%4.51%-0.28%3.49%-0.43%-3.76%5.58%平安银行-0.34%-1.26%2.06%2.10%2.70%-0.71%-3.78%5.92%中国银行-0.46%0.00%6.14%2.31%2.89%1.91%-4.79%16.53%瑞丰银行-0.60%-1.19%2.98%3.29%0.21%-0.61%-3.55%-7.02%贵阳银行-0.71%0.00%2.18%-4.01%3.06%-0.54%-3.29%0.10%沪农商行-0.79%-2.11%2.04%0.80%1.27%4.34%-3.49%-3.55%北京银行-0.89%-0.18%10.02%0.00%2.62%-1.00%-4.02%6.96%青农商行-1.33%-0.33%3.08%0.34%-0.68%-2.33%-5.36%-0.36%兰州银行-1.40%-0.93%0.47%1.90%-0.47%-0.93%-3.17%-5.78%长沙银行-1.41%-1.19%5.13%0.42%3.70%-0.33%-3.36%3.47%紫金银行-1.53%-1.14%3.94%0.79%0.00%-0.79%-4.51%-3.35%浙商银行-1.69%-0.67%2.77%-1.03%-0.34%1.03%-4.29%-0.27%招商银行-1.84%-0.82%5.95%1.16%1.14%-0.88%-2.07%1.61%华夏银行-1.89%0.47%-3.51%-2.38%1.51%-1.78%-3.44%-3.53%江阴银行-1.90%0.00%4.46%0.75%3.08%-2.26%-4.10%2.50%建设银行-1.91%0.36%2.71%1.52%2.83%1.69%-7.19%18.86%兴业银行-1.93%-0.49%4.53%-3.70%0.39%-1.69%-2.96%-10.69%浦发银行-2.05%-1.80%4.78%-0.55%-0.55%-1.19%-3.15%-23.65%杭州银行-2.11%1.51%3.98%-0.24%2.15%1.75%-2.74%14.08%成都银行-2.12%2.87%4.17%0.32%3.27%1.01%-3.35%27.94%常熟银行-2.18%-0.16%4.39%-1.44%2.46%-0.49%-4.82%-0.32%西安银行-2.23%0.00%3.47%-2.26%1.43%-1.13%-3.81%-2.61%郑州银行-2.25%-1.11%1.12%1.71%-0.57%0.00%-4.35%-9.84%无锡银行-2.37%1.55%5.64%2.23%0.94%-1.11%-4.60%-0.46%邮储银行-2.38%0.74%8.62%0.20%1.22%-0.81%-4.25%2.04%宁波银行-2.39%2.90%1.89%-0.59%5.78%2.29%-1.25%26.87%渝农商行-2.54%-3.18%1.91%-0.29%3.65%1.86%-4.59%6.30%苏州银行-2.58%1.09%5.50%1.63%1.30%3.55%-3.65%11.46%张家港行-2.71%0.23%3.28%-1.39%1.64%-2.07%-5.02%-3.26%重庆银行-2.94%-0.97%3.00%-0.72%2.59%0.46%-5.78%5.12%青岛银行-3.04%-1.73%5.13%1.51%4.94%-0.35%-2.74%39.46%江苏银行-3.18%2.36%1.99%0.84%2.40%0.34%-1.78%23.27%苏农银行-3.30%0.44%5.10%2.86%1.45%-1.90%-4.54%-1.60%民生银行-3.36%2.49%5.56%-1.44%1.46%-3.12%-2.49%-5.18%齐鲁银行-3.50%-0.83%9.41%1.07%4.82%0.00%-2.35%25.35%南京银行-3.59%2.17%3.36%-1.61%5.37%-0.27%-3.61%5.19%交通银行H0.62%1.31%6.32%-0.66%4.35%0.00%-4.17%29.96%广州农商银行H0.35%-1.05%-4.67%2.74%-2.67%-3.23%3.33%-3.34%邮储银行H-0.37%-1.09%10.60%0.41%3.03%-1.03%-4.72%6.70%表3：上市银行区间涨跌幅情况（周）重庆农村商业银行H中国光大银行HHH-0.99%-0.33%8.69%1.36%4.86%0.38%-5.08%37.92%-1.15%-0.01%9.39%-5.71%3.24%3.09%-1.45% -5.23% -7.58%-1.44%-1.50%-2.62%8.83%-0.85%-1.48%-4.36%1.79%-3.57%2.33%-2.58%6.11%5.78%0.48%-5.64%7.79%-1.64% -0.10%6.78%-1.14%-0.57%-4.56%28.45%-1.72%-2.04%-3.33%0.00%1.69%-4.84% -3.13%6.67%-9.21%0.00%4.70%2.41%0.00%1.11%-5.44%1.16%-2.75%-2.81%-1.62%2.78%1.12%2.30%-2.25%-4.30%-23.04%-3.82%6.02% 1.71%6.75%-0.32% -3.90%37.02%-3.15%-0.17%-0.29%-3.54%-2.46%2.53%-3.10%-3.92%-19.11%-4.05%4.90% 0.98%5.54%-2.63%-6.89%10.56%-4.73%-1.17% 1.79%2.44%1.23%-2.41%2.47%-15.26%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心表4：上市银行区间换手率情况（周）2026/9/182026/9/112026/9/42026/8/282026/8/212026/8/142026/8/7年初以来江阴银行8.54%8.38%10.91%8.44%7.98%6.43%7.91%257.29%兰州银行8.50%9.12%8.93%9.91%7.42%7.24%10.87%255.09%苏农银行7.61%9.52%12.39%11.24%6.20%5.40%7.98%246.44%紫金银行7.45%7.57%9.51%8.30%6.61%5.82%8.63%225.19%郑州银行7.16%7.12%7.21%6.30%6.26%5.46%7.64%212.87%青农商行6.30%8.60%8.57%6.84%6.10%4.67%6.96%193.67%张家港行6.13%7.85%7.39%6.78%5.64%5.02%6.69%198.49%贵阳银行5.74%7.05%8.80%10.78%5.69%3.92%7.68%206.31%常熟银行5.50%7.47%9.82%8.08%5.74%5.46%7.32%225.08%无锡银行5.30%6.75%5.97%4.82%3.97%3.71%5.23%149.73%建设银行4.86%5.66%5.84%5.73%6.34%6.61%10.93%201.95%青岛银行4.77%6.17%5.77%5.72%5.90%3.83%6.24%254.72%瑞丰银行4.59%5.95%4.64%4.38%3.90%4.30%6.44%174.51%齐鲁银行3.93%5.22%6.53%3.44%3.91%2.41%3.87%152.44%北京银行3.82%4.28%8.49%3.10%2.30%2.15%3.43%115.68%民生银行3.74%3.74%4.61%2.85%2.56%2.55%4.18%122.96%苏州银行3.54%4.55%4.86%3.37%3.87%4.16%5.07%148.10%渝农商行3.48%3.55%3.86%3.23%2.89%3.51%4.33%116.29%交通银行3.41%2.87%4.01%2.63%3.06%2.37%3.40%117.47%江苏银行2.73%2.34%2.38%2.48%2.81%1.93%2.78%94.96%西安银行2.65%3.35%4.10%3.54%2.20%2.01%2.87%102.58%杭州银行2.64%2.63%3.24%2.57%2.91%2.04%2.63%97.46%重庆银行2.55%2.70%3.58%3.27%3.38%2.07%3.22%125.65%长沙银行2.41%2.93%3.50%2.36%2.15%1.54%2.73%82.55%成都银行2.30%2.23%2.23%2.03%2.51%1.59%2.57%101.55%华夏银行2.25%2.96%5.58%3.18%2.25%1.56%2.35%85.36%宁波银行2.13%2.15%2.02%1.89%2.48%1.73%2.42%79.60%平安银行2.06%2.12%2.70%2.67%2.69%1.94%2.95%88.78%南京银行1.89%2.08%2.41%2.45%2.79%1.33%1.99%75.74%光大银行1.82%1.71%2.79%1.93%1.61%1.66%2.75%80.97%兴业银行1.61%1.79%2.66%3.26%2.29%1.50%2.10%79.64%招商银行1.40%1.48%2.20%1.66%1.83%1.31%2.38%75.05%沪农商行1.23%1.26%1.12%1.48%1.49%1.49%1.61%44.67%邮储银行1.05%1.16%2.52%0.98%0.83%0.70%1.24%38.33%浦发银行1.01%0.91%1.31%1.25%0.94%0.77%1.13%41.93%中国银行0.48%0.55%0.76%0.60%0.60%0.56%0.77%22.95%重庆农村商业银行H2.90%1.46%1.92%1.17%1.40%0.99%1.69%73.78%民生银行H2.28%2.34%2.86%1.78%0.96%0.70%0.97%57.41%招商银行H1.14%1.17%1.95%1.32%1.10%0.78%1.38%55.30%中国银行H0.88%1.04%2.06%0.89%0.96%0.64%0.82%44.07%HHHHHHHHH0.81%0.79%0.73%1.08%2.21%1.43% 1.47% 1.44% 1.62%63.72%1.13% 1.45%0.40% 0.34% 0.37% 0.46%22.46%34.08%21.96%13.80%28.53%17.79%21.22%0.81%2.94%0.94%0.88%0.67%0.89%0.62%0.61%0.50%0.41%0.40%0.70%0.66%0.57% 0.54%0.29% 0.42% 0.45%0.67%0.30% 0.28% 0.29% 0.39%0.51%0.46%0.56%1.02% 1.03%0.42% 0.36% 0.58%0.66% 0.41% 0.42% 0.27% 0.47%0.54% 0.52% 0.54% 0.38% 0.68%0.23% 0.20%0.07% 0.09% 0.06% 0.07%0.61%10.65%7.62%0.05% 0.04% 0.12%0.41%0.66%0.08%0.30%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心表5：上市银行绝对/相对估值、股息率及所处分位情况单家银行 单家银行银行指数PETTM所处分位PBLF所处分位股息率TTM所处分位PETTM所处分位PBLF所处分位股息率TTM所处分位建设银行8.1697.50%0.7957.90%3.60%97.50%1.1296.00%1.1596.80%0.8718.10%中国银行8.4699.60%0.7877.50%3.46%99.60%1.1799.70%1.1399.80%0.8311.40%邮储银行7.1475.50%0.6119.10%4.10%75.50%0.9820.00%0.8916.60%0.9983.30%交通银行6.7688.50%0.5648.20%4.35%88.50%0.9366.30%0.8262.20%1.0524.50%招商银行6.7525.90%0.8910.10%4.97%25.90%0.932.60%1.301.50%1.2091.80%兴业银行4.9928.80%0.452.70%6.00%28.80%0.690.40%0.650.40%1.4494.30%浦发银行5.9051.90%0.4020.30%4.63%51.90%0.8113.30%0.580.50%1.1276.80%民生银行5.2751.90%0.260.80%4.94%51.90%0.732.60%0.380.00%1.1957.10%光大银行5.4250.00%0.350.30%5.79%50.00%0.7513.60%0.510.40%1.4094.80%平安银行5.2228.20%0.488.60%5.09%28.20%0.725.40%0.714.40%1.2382.20%华夏银行3.9529.80%0.310.00%6.74%29.80%0.540.70%0.450.20%1.6298.70%浙商银行6.0963.00%0.445.40%4.52%63.00%0.8422.50%0.6414.30%1.0965.70%北京银行5.6064.30%0.4115.80%5.02%64.30%0.7730.40%0.604.80%1.2139.90%江苏银行6.1871.50%0.8272.00%4.64%71.50%0.8536.10%1.2078.90%1.1264.60%宁波银行7.3529.70%0.9726.60%3.46%29.70%1.0120.90%1.4026.90%0.8394.30%南京银行6.3955.10%0.7620.10%4.48%55.10%0.8813.50%1.109.80%1.0856.40%杭州银行6.1629.60%0.8635.20%3.85%29.60%0.8510.60%1.2629.30%0.9390.40%成都银行5.9851.30%0.9034.70%7.37%51.30%0.8215.30%1.3133.00%1.7899.90%长沙银行4.7340.90%0.5214.70%4.39%40.90%0.652.80%0.750.40%1.0687.00%重庆银行6.6164.20%0.6558.30%4.00%64.20%0.9132.70%0.9545.30%0.9679.90%贵阳银行3.9729.30%0.311.60%5.38%29.30%0.551.10%0.450.70%1.3098.10%郑州银行8.1436.50%0.341.10%0.00%36.50%1.120.70%0.490.20%0.000.00%青岛银行6.1334.90%0.8155.00%2.98%34.90%0.846.80%1.1739.80%0.7226.50%苏州银行7.2152.80%0.7657.30%3.97%52.80%0.9923.90%1.1125.90%0.9675.70%齐鲁银行6.9077.60%0.8278.20%3.61%77.60%0.9558.30%1.1972.30%0.8785.40%兰州银行6.758.50%0.391.70%3.79%8.50%0.9340.70%0.5641.30%0.9182.50%西安银行5.807.90%0.431.40%2.86%7.90%0.803.60%0.625.10%0.6949.50%渝农商行5.8964.20%0.5357.10%4.91%64.20%0.8114.60%0.7752.50%1.1864.60%沪农商行6.8274.60%0.6349.30%4.97%74.60%0.9439.00%0.9238.60%1.2084.20%青农商行5.167.30%0.446.30%4.05%7.30%0.714.70%0.646.60%0.9897.90%常熟银行5.161.10%0.700.50%1.74%1.10%0.710.20%1.010.20%0.423.50%紫金银行7.3853.50%0.450.50%3.89%53.50%1.0219.50%0.663.20%0.9499.20%无锡银行5.3816.50%0.533.30%4.17%16.50%0.741.80%0.781.20%1.0089.60%张家港行5.2412.50%0.551.40%5.12%12.50%0.720.20%0.790.20%1.2392.40%苏农银行4.708.70%0.492.30%4.34%8.70%0.650.90%0.710.30%1.0590.90%江阴银行5.4228.10%0.557.40%4.83%28.10%0.754.50%0.800.50%1.1692.60%瑞丰银行4.966.40%0.484.70%6.21%6.40%0.6833.60%0.7034.40%1.5099.80%建设银行H6.3994.80%0.6154.00%4.58%94.80%0.8888.40%0.8887.90%1.107.40%中国银行H7.0899.60%0.6174.30%4.27%99.60%0.9799.90%0.8999.80%1.037.90%邮储银行H6.6465.20%0.5424.30%4.55%65.20%0.9130.00%0.7811.00%1.1048.10%交通银行H6.8899.00%0.5363.50%4.51%99.00%0.9598.00%0.7895.40%1.097.00%招商银行H7.6842.00%0.9825.90%4.44%42.00%1.0614.80%1.4213.40%1.0775.40%民生银行H5.2378.50%0.2224.70%5.76%78.50%0.7255.50%0.332.70%1.3925.40%中国光大银4.9976.30%0.289.50%7.12%76.30%0.6963.00%0.410.20%1.7171.70%行H浙商银行H4.7227.70%0.327.60%6.27%27.70%0.657.70%0.462.00%1.5169.90%渤海银行H2.232.10%0.112.50%0.00%2.10%0.3121.20%0.1726.10%0.000.00%重庆银行H4.6271.60%0.4361.50%6.11%71.60%0.6475.90%0.6393.50%1.4749.80%郑州银行H4.7736.60%0.153.80%0.00%36.60%0.668.80%0.220.70%0.000.00%青岛银行H4.6121.10%0.5836.10%4.11%21.10%0.638.20%0.8437.70%0.9934.10%江西银行H4.6525.50%0.070.20%6.86%25.50%0.6414.90%0.110.30%1.6599.20%重庆农村商业银行H4.9974.30%0.4447.40%5.77%74.30%0.6975.40%0.6473.10%1.3920.40%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心注：所处分位指2017年至今表6：A+H上市银行AH溢价率及所处分位情况所处分位2026/9/182026/9/112026/9/42026/8/282026/8/212026/8/142026/8/7年初交通银行59.30%30.98%30.84%30.12%35.22%31.73%35.45%32.35%33.61%38.30%26.97%25.82%25.29%28.25%27.10%29.48%27.45%42.24%35.70%14.69%16.62%14.40%16.43%16.71%18.74%18.39%13.42%1.60%6.49%7.03%7.48%9.30%8.92%9.78%10.18%24.45%浙商银行6.80%-7.88%-7.86%-9.62%-7.20%-9.00%-7.29%-7.92%-11.72%16.50%17.21%23.44%15.66%19.81%17.95%14.66%14.70%16.63%16.77%18.55%14.96%7.90%6.15%29.40%26.68%22.24%23.13%79.70%40.40%39.39%40.21%42.78%47.79%48.24%48.24%33.56%青岛银行18.40%52.59%50.29%51.20%53.91%56.60%61.05%55.97%52.74%66.50%128.45%126.44%125.07%128.65%127.41%133.87%128.46%85.81%62.90%40.04%39.86%36.77%37.86%38.18%40.51%40.46%29.17%渝农商行14.60%21.40%22.24%21.64%22.08%19.33%22.11%20.38%16.30%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心注：所处分位指2017年至今五、转债表现：本期银行转债平均价格下跌0.64%0.64%1.04%1.681.70%情况为上银转债-0.38%-0.56%-0.65%4.83%4.64%4.22%20260918日，10128.037.20%8.85%。表7：银行转债关键信息一览转债名称纯债溢价率(%)转股溢价率(%)平价底价溢价率(%)最新转债价格(元)平价(元)底价(元)涨幅(%)最新余额(亿元)已转股比例(%)剩余期限(年)最新转股价格(元)常银转债21.947.2013.75128.03119.43104.998.8559.990.011.995.25重银转债2125.47118.22109.959.96115.6311.061.519.22兴业转债3.1527.52-19.11112.6488.33109.1947.18413.5217.301.2720.13上银转债5.252.432.75117.27114.49111.4213.55192.163.920.358.35数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心表8：银行转债区间涨跌幅情况（周）2026/9/182026/9/112026/9/42026/8/282026/8/212026/8/142026/8/7年初以来上银转债-0.38%-0.25%1.01%-1.89%1.45%0.26%-1.67%-7.70%常银转债-0.56%-0.27%0.42%-1.03%0.96%-1.04%-0.14%-1.23%兴业转债-0.65%-1.12%0.10%-0.82%0.15%-1.55%-0.77%-6.71%重银转债-1.05%-0.57%-0.02%-0.20%0.96%-1.09%-0.65%-0.87%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心表9：银行转债区间换手率情况（周）2026/9/182026/9/112026/9/42026/8/282026/8/212026/8/142026/8/7年初以来常银转债4.83%7.10%6.67%7.99%4.95%6.75%7.37%300.31%重银转债4.64%5.58%6.77%4.88%5.35%5.96%6.26%251.38%上银转债4.22%5.95%6.61%8.16%5.51%5.86%6.12%240.59%兴业转债2.44%3.51%3.06%3.19%2.82%3.54%3.81%157.27%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图17：行转绝对益与收益（） 图18：行转、银板块转债指累计益率

银行转债加权平均价格/中证可转换债券…银行转债加权平均价格(右轴)

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银行转债加权平均价格中证银行指数中证可转换债券指数数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图19：银行转债债性股性一览（截至2026年9月18日）债债债上银转债2015105 00 5

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130数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心六、盈利预测跟踪：26年利润增速一致预期基本不变本期共6家银行26年业绩增速一致预期有变化（成都银行、青岛银行、渝农商行等）。A26-0.08pct0.05pct26年净利润-0.14pct、0.06pct0.00pct0.00pct。26年营0.07pct、0.01pct、0.00pct0.01pct。较最新财报披净利润 环比上期变动最新财报披露评级机构家数露前变动 2026/9/18 2026/9/11 2026/9/4 2026/8/28 2026/8/21 2026E 较最新财报披净利润 环比上期变动最新财报披露评级机构家数露前变动 2026/9/18 2026/9/11 2026/9/4 2026/8/28 2026/8/21 2026E （PCT） 同比（PCT）建设银行150.470.005.56%3.54%3.54%3.54%3.07%3.07%3.07%中国银行180.890.004.67%4.15%4.15%4.15%3.26%3.26%3.26%邮储银行220.780.004.57%2.89%2.89%2.89%2.11%2.11%2.11%交通银行130.350.004.63%2.51%2.51%2.51%2.16%2.16%2.16%招商银行230.160.002.01%2.69%2.69%2.69%2.52%2.52%2.52%兴业银行18-0.840.00-4.72%-0.06%-0.06%-0.06%0.23%0.78%0.78%浦发银行14-0.600.004.88%13.93%13.93%13.93%13.80%14.53%14.53%民生银行50.000.00-10.35%-4.41%-4.41%-4.41%-4.41%-4.41%-4.41%光大银行9-12.890.00-23.86%-24.97%-24.97%-24.97%-12.08%-12.08%-12.08%平安银行280.710.003.32%-4.48%-4.48%-4.48%-4.48%-4.48%-5.02%华夏银行9-8.960.00-17.51%-6.73% -6.73%-1.91%2.23%2.23%2.23%浙商银行9-0.020.002.23%-17.43%-17.43%-17.43%-17.43%-17.41%-17.41%北京银行100.070.005.72%-18.36%-18.36%-18.36%-18.42%-18.42%-18.42%江苏银行24-0.490.008.32%15.07%15.07%15.07%15.07%15.07%15.56%宁波银行300.350.0012.72%19.09%19.09%19.09%19.09%18.99%18.74%南京银行22-1.460.008.17%15.23%15.23%15.23%15.23%15.23%16.69%杭州银行23-0.060.009.87%22.61%22.61%22.61%22.61%22.67%22.67%成都银行23-0.210.014.35%8.38%8.37%8.47%8.47%8.58%8.58%长沙银行80.000.005.68%8.89%8.89%8.89%8.89%8.89%8.89%重庆银行190.210.0010.97%19.90%19.90%19.90%19.90%19.69%19.69%贵阳银行3-4.49%郑州银行01.61%青岛银行140.620.1217.62%42.58%42.46%42.46%42.46%41.88%41.88%苏州银行180.840.009.27%14.14%14.14%14.00%13.92%13.30%13.30%齐鲁银行120.400.0016.57%28.20%28.20%28.20%27.81%27.81%27.81%兰州银行10.000.00-7.62%0.22%0.22%0.22%0.22%0.22%0.22%西安银行10.000.001.98%14.56%14.56%14.56%14.56%14.56%14.56%渝农商行25-0.240.016.32%12.57%12.56%12.56%12.82%12.82%12.82%沪农商行16-0.190.000.71%1.65%1.65%1.65%1.65%1.84%1.84%青农商行10.000.002.63%14.02%14.02%14.02%14.02%14.02%14.02%常熟银行22-0.26 0.008.98%22.15%22.15%22.15%22.15%22.41%22.41%紫金银行2-1.690.003.33%-22.11%-22.11%-22.11%-20.42%-20.42%-20.42%无锡银行20.000.002.74%5.32%5.32%5.32%5.32%5.32%5.32%张家港行6-0.890.002.30%9.63%9.63%9.63%9.63%10.52%10.52%苏农银行6-0.710.003.02%9.44%9.44%9.44%9.44%10.15%10.15%江阴银行4-0.860.002.94%3.38%3.38%3.38%3.38%3.59%4.25%瑞丰银行11-0.320.000.93%4.06%4.06%4.14%4.14%4.38%4.38%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心；注：表中数据为wind一致预期预测值较最新财报披营收 环比上期变动最新财报披露评级机构家数露前变动 2026/9/18 2026/9/11 2026/9/4 2026/8/28 2026/8/21 2026E 较最新财报披营收 环比上期变动最新财报披露评级机构家数露前变动 2026/9/18 2026/9/11 2026/9/4 2026/8/28 2026/8/21 2026E （PCT） 同比（PCT）建设银行150.710.0010.72%6.14%6.14%6.14%5.43%5.43%5.43%中国银行180.860.008.48%9.05%9.05%9.05%8.20%8.20%8.20%邮储银行220.860.007.26%6.92%6.92%6.92%6.06%6.06%6.06%交通银行131.060.006.73%6.18%6.18%6.18%5.12%5.12%5.12%招商银行230.580.004.83%3.49%3.49%3.49%2.90%2.90%2.90%兴业银行18-0.520.00-0.25%1.49%1.49%1.49%1.67%2.01%2.01%浦发银行140.090.003.55%5.47%5.47%5.47%5.27%5.38%5.38%民生银行50.000.003.84%8.25%8.25%8.25%8.25%8.25%8.25%光大银行90.390.00-4.32%-7.38%-