麦肯锡 -电池激励定价：壮大西方供应链 Incentive pricing for batteries Scaling the Western supply chain

April2026

Mckunsey

&company

Automotive&AssemblyPractice

Incentivepricingforbatteries:ScalingtheWesternsupplychain

Asetofincentivepricingmechanismscanhelpguideinvestments,withoutprescribingspecifictechnologiesorcompanies,andmakeWesternbatteryprojectsmorecompetitiveacrossthevaluechain.

byRaphaelRettigandWentingGao

withAngelaChenandNikolaVekić

Globaldemandforlithium-ion(Li-ion)batteriesissurging.Asillustratedina

recentMcKinsey

article

,demandisexpectedtoincreasefromapproximately1.0terawatt-hours(TWh)in2024to4.2TWhin2030andto6.8TWhby2035.

1

Thatsaid,75percentofglobalsupplyremains

concentratedinChina.

2

BuildingcompetitiveglobalsupplychainsandunlockingthevalueofemergingtechnologiesinWesterncountriesrequirescreatingtherightincentives.

Doingsowon’tbeeasy.Ourresearchfindsthatapproximately$1billionisrequiredforeverytengigawatt-hours,andconstructionleadtimesoffourtofiveyearscanmakeinvestmentriskyandslowtomature.Commoditypricevolatilityunderminespredictablereturnsandinvestor

confidence.Forexample,lithiumandnickelpricesfluctuatedthreetosixtimesinrecentyears.

3

Furthermore,uncertainpolicyandpermittingmeanalackofconsistentmechanismsforlong-termpriceorreturnstability(seesidebar,“MineSpansmarketintelligenceservices”).

MineSpansmarketintelligenceservices

ThisarticleispoweredbyMineSpans,whichispartofMcKinsey’sGlobalEnergyandMaterials

Practice.MineSpansisaleadingandcomprehensivemetalsandminingmarketintelligencesolution,combiningMcKinsey’sglobalexpertisewithproprietarydatatoprovideanindependentandholisticviewoncommoditymarkets.Builtbyourcommoditiesexpertsandcoveringmorethan14,000globalassetsacrossmorethan15commodityvaluechains,ourdetailedbottom-upsupplyanddemand

forecasts,granularcostmodels,andenvironmental,social,andgovernancedataformthebasisofMcKinsey’sindustryperspectivestohelpempowerdecision-makers.

Despiterecentgovernmentincentives,suchastheInflationReductionAct’s45Xtaxcredits,

4

manyinvestors,producers,OEMs,andpolicymakersstillviewWesternbatteryproductionas

uncertain.Thisarticleaimstoshowhowasetofincentivepricingmechanisms,basedonotherindustriesorearlyscalingsuccesses,canhelpmakeWesternbatteryprojectscompetitivewithalternativeinvestments.

Thetechno-economicsofbatterymaterials

ThebatteryvaluechaininChinahasanumberofstructuralscaleandcostadvantages,whichultimatelyenableproducerstoaccountformorethan90percentofanodeandlithium-iron-phosphate(LFP)cathodeproduction.

5

Accesstolow-costenergy,labor,andfinancinghas

1“

Battery2035:Buildingnewadvantages

,”McKinsey,January1,2026.

2GlobalsupplychainsofEVbatteries,IEA,July2022.

3“Lithium”and“Nickel,”TradingEconomics,accessedMarch11,2026.

4TheSection45XAdvancedManufacturingTaxCredit,partoftheInflationReductionActof2022,aimstoencouragedomesticproductionofclean-energycomponentsandcriticalminerals.Formore,see“AdvancedManufacturingProductionTaxCredit,”InternalRevenueService,accessedApril2,2026.

5GlobalEVoutlook2024,IEA,April2024.

Incentivepricingforbatteries:ScalingtheWesternsupplychain2

Incentivepricingforbatteries:ScalingtheWesternsupplychain3

enabledexceptionallyhighlevelsofmining,refining,andcellmanufacturingcapacity,creatingeconomiesofscalethatfurtherentrenchtheseadvantages.

Incontrast,Westernproducersfacestructuraldisadvantages(Exhibit1).Althoughthese

disadvantageslookdifferentateachstepofthevaluechain,fromupstreammineralsto

midstreammaterialstocells,theysharecommonelementsofhighercapitalintensity,greaterexposuretocommodityandenergycosts,andlimitedprocessknow-how(relativetoChina).

Lithiumrefining

AccordingtoMineSpansestimates,refiningcapacityisheavilyconcentratedinChina,which

accountsformorethan70percentofbothlithiumcarbonateandlithiumhydroxide.Western

marketssufferfromstructurallyhighercostsbecauseoflimitedfeedstockaccessandenergy

pricesdrivingupoperationalexpenses,aswellashigherlaborcostsandpotentiallystricter

regulationdrivingupcapitalexpenses.Inaddition,highpricevolatility(forexample,lithium

carbonatepricesfluctuatedfrom$8,000to$83,000permetrictonoverthepastfiveyears)

makesitdifficulttofinancenewcapacity.Althoughcontractualagreementspartiallyinsulate

refinersfromfluctuatingspotprices,mostvalueisaccruedbyminersupstream,whichultimatelyconstrainsprofitability.

Cathodeactivematerials

WhenitcomestoLFPbatteries,Westernmarketslargelydependoncathodeproductionandknow-howinChina.Asaresult,theenergyandlaborcostsaswellasthecapitalexpendituresarestructurallyhigher.Processmaturityfornickelmanganesecobalt(NMC)batteriesexistsinJapaneseandKoreanmanufacturing,butChinesecompaniesdominateintermsofbothcostandspeedofinnovation.

Anodeactivematerials

Anodeactivematerials(AAM)havehighcapitalandoperationalexpendituresthataresensitivetoelectricityprices,whichmakesWesternproductionuncompetitive.Graphiteoversupplyin

Chinafurtherdiscouragesnewinvestments.

Cellproduction

DespitestrongsubsidysupportintheUnitedStates,andprotectionfromtariffs,

demandfor

electricvehicles(EVs)hasdecreasedandsaleshaveslowed

,6delayingmanycellprojects.

EuropecontinuestoseesolidgrowthratesinEVsales,pushingtheneedfordomesticbatteryproduction.Butmanykeyprojectsareandhavebeenstrugglingbothfinanciallyandtermsofproductionramp-up.

Recycling

Manycommercial-scalerecyclingplantsareconcentratedinAsia(withthemajorityinChina),

whileWesternfacilitiesareeitherinearlystagesorsubscale.Asaresult,economiesofscalearelimitedintheWestandunitcostsremainelevated.AlthoughtradelimitationsinEuropelessen

exportsofrecyclingfeedstocktoChina,accesstoscrapremainsuncertain,beingdrivenmainlybyexportstoSouthKorea,whichlimitsincentivesforlarge-scaleproduction.

6Formore,see“

Spotlightonmobilitytrends

,”McKinsey,March12,2024.

Incentivepricingforbatteries:ScalingtheWesternsupplychain4

Exhibit1

Incentivepricingforbatteries:ScalingtheWesternsupplychain5

Whatisincentivepricing?Andhowcanitbepositioned?

Governmentsandmarketshavehistoricallyusedthefollowingmechanismstopromotelocalproductionandinvestmentalongthebatteryvaluechain:

—ecosystemsupport,enablinginfrastructure,permittingreforms(suchasacceleratedorsimplifiedpermitting),orindustrial-zoneincentivestolowernonfinancialbarriersto

investment

—strategicreserves,whicharerules-basedpublicprocurementandreleasemechanismsdesignedtosecurecrisissupplyandstabilizeprices(suchastheUSStrategicPetroleumReserve

7

andtherecentlyannouncedProjectVault8)

—loanguarantees,reducingfinancingcostsandriskexposurebybackstoppingprivatelending

—tariffsortradebarriers(includingcontentrequirements),enforcingimportcoststoestablishadomesticpricefloorforlocalproduction,oftenincombinationwithdomesticsourcing

requirements(suchastheEU-UKTradeandCooperationAgreement

9

andtheUnitedStates-Mexico-CanadaAgreement10)

—long-termofftakecontractsorcontractsfordifference,guaranteeingaminimumpricepaidorindexedforfutureoutput

—directtaxcreditsorsubsidies(includinglocalcontentrequirements),providingfixedper-unitincentivesorcreditstodirectlyimproveprojecteconomics,withaccesstosubsidiesoftenconditionedondomesticproductionorsourcingrequirements

Althougheachofthesemechanismsaddressesspecificbarriersinthebatteryvaluechainand

helpsimproveprojecteconomics,theydiffersubstantiallyinhowtheyinfluencetechnology

choices,providereturnvisibility,andmobilizecapital(Exhibit2).Whenappliedinisolation,eachmechanismtendstoalleviateindividualcostorriskcomponents.Theydonot,however,providethereliable,end-to-endreturnvisibilityrequiredtoovercomehighcapitalintensity,volatileinputcosts,andnonfirmdemand,particularlyforupstreammaterialsandearly-stagecellprojects.

Incentivepricingmechanismscanhelpaddressthisgapbyestablishingtransparent,long-termreturnthresholdstoguidecapitaltowardcompetitiveinvestmentswithoutprescribingspecifictechnologiesorcompanies.Thesemechanismsarenotintendedtobepolicytools,noraretheyintendedtocreateacentrallymandatedprice.Rather,theycanhelpaligncomplementary

interventionsthattogethercreatecredible,long-termpricingandreturnsignalssufficienttomobilizeprivatecapital.

7Formore,see“StrategicPetroleumReserve,”USDepartmentofEnergy,accessedApril2,2026.

8Formore,see“IntroducingProjectVault,acriticalmineralstockpileforAmericanbusinesses,”TheWhiteHouse,February2,2026.

9Formore,see“TheEU-UKTradeandCooperationAgreement,”EuropeanCommission,accessedApril2,2026.

10Formore,see“UnitedStates-Mexico-CanadaAgreement,”OfficeoftheUnitedStatesTradeRepresentative,accessedApril2,2026.

Exhibit2

Incentivepricingforbatteries:ScalingtheWesternsupplychain6

ASetofincentivepricingmechanismscanaddressanumberofdimensionsacrosstheentirebatteryvaluechain.

Qualitativecomparisonofpolicytoolsacrossfourdesigndimensions,illustrative

Mckinsey&company

Thefollowingfourprinciplesillustratehowincentivepricingmechanismscouldplayoutinpractice:

—Technologyandplayeragnosticism.Notrewardingspecifictechnologiesorcompaniescanhelpsetreturnthresholdsthatallowthemostcompetitivesolutionstoemerge.

—Crediblevisibilityintofuturepricingorreturns.Anchoringintransparentmarketsignalscanincreaseinvestorconfidence.

—Applicationacrossthefullvaluechain.Balancingup-anddownstreamincentivescanpreventoversupplyandhelpensurethatinvestmentflowsalignwithend-marketvolumes.

Incentivepricingforbatteries:ScalingtheWesternsupplychain7

—Focusoncapitalformation.Structurecapitaltomakelong-term,capital-intensiveinvestmenttherationalchoicecomparedwiththenext-bestalternative.

Thespecificinstrumentsthroughwhichincentivepricingisrealizedcanvarybyvaluechainsegmentandinvestortypeandmayincludecombinationsoflong-termofftakestructures,strategicprocurement,policy-backedfloors,milestone-basedsupport,ordemand-side

commitments.

Investorarchetypes:Howincentivepricingmechanismscanhelpmobilizecapital

Designingeffectiveincentivepricingmechanismsrequiresunderstandingthemotivations,

returnexpectations,andconstraintsofdifferentinvestorsparticipatinginthebatteryvalue

chain.Eachinvestorarchetypefacesdistinctmarketfailures,includinguncertainlong-term

returns,limitedofftakevisibility,andvolatileinputcosts,amongothersthatpreventcapitalfromflowingattherequiredscale.Somestart-upsandnewentrants(suchasdirect-lithium-

extractioninnovatorsandcathodeoranodeproducers)aimtoraisecapitaltocommercializeandscalenewtechnologies,butmoststruggletoattractfinancingwithoutearlyofftakeanchors.

Althoughincentivepricingmechanismsaretechnology-andplayer-agnostic,thespecificreturnthresholdsanddesignparametersshouldbecalibratedtoeachinvestorarchetype.Thisinmind,keyinvestorprofilesincludestrategicindustrials,privatecapital,andstrategiccustomers.

Strategicindustrials:Largechemicaloroilandgasconglomerates

Strategicindustrials—suchasoilandgasconglomerates,petrochemicalandspecialtymaterialscompanies,andmajorminingcompanies—caninvesttoleverageexistingcapabilitiesand

maintaincompetitivenessamidshiftsintheenergytransition.However,manylackthe

consistentdemandandpricingsignalsneededtojustifylarge-scalecapitalcommitments.

Largeoilandgasandchemicalcompaniesareincreasinglyevaluatinginvestmentsinupstreambatterycomponents,includingAAM,cathodeprecursors,electrolytesolvents,andengineeredcarbonmaterials—allareasinwhichtheirprocessengineeringandglobalfeedstockpositionsprovideanadvantage.

Severalincumbentshavebegunmovingintothisspace,illustratinghowprojectscanbecome

strategicallyandfinanciallyattractivewhenstructuredcorrectly.Forexample,ExxonMobil

committedcapitaltoscalesyntheticgraphiteanodematerialsinNorthAmericathroughits

acquisitionofSuperiorGraphiteassetsandiscurrentlytestingitsnext-generationanodewith

USandEuropeanautomakers.11Thecompanyisleveragingdeepcarbon-materialsexpertiseandadvantagedrefineryfeedstockstopositionitselfasaUS-basedat-scaleAAMsupplier.

11“SuperiorGraphite,superioracquisitionsforsyntheticgraphiteproduction,”ExxonMobil,September9,2025.

Incentivepricingforbatteries:ScalingtheWesternsupplychain8

Asanotherexample,BASFisbuildingacathodeactivematerials(CAM)platformcenteredon

high-nickelNMCchemistries(suchasNMC622andNMC811),withmajorinvestmentsinChina,Finland,andGermany,12supportedby€3.5billionto€4.5billioncommittedglobally.ItsBatteryMaterialsdivisionhassecuredlong-termcontractswithcellmakersandautomakers.The

companyhasalsoannouncedinvestmentsintheEuropeanbatteryrecyclingmarket.

Despitetheseearly-moverinvestments,activityremainslimitedandhasnotscaledbroadly.SeveraladditionalconditionsbackedbystrategicindustrialscanhelpscaleAAMandCAMinvestmentintheWest:

—acceleratedqualificationsforOEMsorcellsuppliers,withsupporttiedtoearlymilestoneachievements,whichcanshortenthepathtocommercialacceptanceandmakereturnsmorepredictablefornewindustrialentrantsinWesternmarkets

—resilient,long-horizonpolicysupport(anywherefromtento15years)tomatchtheassetlifeofmaterialsplants

—regionalalignmentwithautomakerlocalizationstrategiesasOEMsseekUSandEUmaterialscontenttocomplywithInflationReductionActandEUbatteryregulations

Privatecapital:Infrastructureinvestors

Privatecapitalplayers,suchasinfrastructurefunds,privateequity,privatecredit,andhybrid

funds,seekstable,contractedreturnscomparabletootherinfrastructureassets,buttheyoftenfacelimitedvisibilityonlong-termofftakeandcashflows.

Infrastructureinvestorshavesofarfocusedonbatterysegmentswithpredictable,contractedrevenuessuchasutility-scalebatteryenergystoragesystems(BESS)andoperatingportfoliosforwhichinfrastructurefundsenterpost–commercialoperationsdate(COD)withcapacity

paymentsorpowerpurchaseagreementsanchoringrevenue.However,otherpartsofthevaluechain,suchascomponentmanufacturing,couldbeinvestablebuthavenotyetattractedlong-termcapital.Potentialreasonsforthisincludeinsufficientfirmofftake(forinstance,cell

productionplantsaresometimesdelayedduetoOEMEVscale-backs),highlycomplex

operationscreatingexecutionandramp-uprisksthatinfrastructureinvestorsarenotusedtounderwriting,andthedifficultyinrelyingonpotentiallyshort-livedpolicyincentives.

However,recentmarketexamplesdemonstratehowcomponentmanufacturingcanbe

investable.Aglobalinfrastructureinvestorrecentlyannouncedamajoritystakeinvestmentinabatteryseparatorproducer,whichwassupportedbyaloanfromtheUSDepartmentofEnergy(DOE).Threemajorcharacteristicshelpexplainhowthisdealbecamemoreinvestable:first,abalancedportfoliowithleadacidandLi-ionbatteryexposure,demonstratingexistingstable

basecashflow;second,lowercostofcapital,enabledbyDOEsupport;andthird,reducedcommodityexposureasseparatormarginsdependonengineeredperformanceratherthanvolatilelithiumorgraphitespotprices.

12“BASFacquiressiteforNorthAmericanbatterymaterialsandrecyclingexpansioninCanada,”BASF,March4,2022.

Incentivepricingforbatteries:ScalingtheWesternsupplychain9

GiventhesuccessfulinvestmentcasesinBESSorcomponentmanufacturing,thefollowingincentivecriteriaappearcriticalformakingthissegmentinvestable:

—tyinglong-termincentivesandmarketaccesstodomesticproduction,usingenforceable

local-contentrulestorewardlocalizedcapacity—becausewhendesignedwithsufficient

durationandclarity,suchmechanismscanunderpindemandcertaintyandsupportcapitalformation,asseenintheemergenceofCAMcapacityinEuropeunderEUandUKrules-of-originrequirements

—strengtheningandstandardizingofftakestructures(suchas“takeorpay”)socomponent

producershaveconfidenceinmorepredictablebaselinerevenue,evenwhenOEMdemandfluctuates

—usingmilestone-basedincentivestoderiskearlyscale-up,mirroringhowDOEsupportreducedfinancingriskinbatteryseparatorproductionandmadetheequitycasemoreinvestable

Strategiccustomers:AutoOEMs

Strategiccustomers,suchasutilitiesprocuringBESSandautoOEMspurchasingbatteries,

needpredictableinputcostsandlocalized,securesupply.However,theyoftenfacevolatilityinupstreammaterialsanduncertainend-marketdemand,whichdiscourageslong-term

contracting.

OEMsareinvestingupstream,generallythroughthreepathways—supplycontracts,jointventures(JVs)withcellproducers,andverticalintegration—witheachfacingstructuralchallengesthatlimitbroadersupplychainscaling.

—Supplycontractswithcellorupstreamproducers.SomeOEMshavesignedmultiyeardealstosecurecriticalinputsandmeetlocalizationrules.Whenlithiumpricesfellsharplyin2023to2024,somesupplierssoughttodeferdeliveriesorrenegotiatetermstopreservemargins,whileOEMsslowedorreducedofftakeinresponsetoweakerEVdemand.Thesechanges

revealedamarketfailureinwhichbatterymaterialsremainedtradedthroughbilateral

pricingwithnotransparentindex,leavingcounterpartieswithoutamechanismtomanagerisk.

—JVswithcellproducers.OEMshaveincreasinglyformedjointventurestosecuretechnologyaccessandlocalizedcapacity.Onthispoint,severalprojectshavebeendelayedorscaled

backasEVsalesgrowthslowedandOEMsrecalibrateddemandforecasts.TheseJVsthusleavecellproducersfullyexposedtoutilizationriskbecauseOEMscannotcommittofixedvolumesduringweakdemand.

—Directverticalintegration.SomeOEMshaveintegrateddirectlyintocellproductionand

evenupstreammaterialsrefiningtosecuresupplyandreducecosts.Themodelcandeliverstrongmarginsandtechnologycontrolforscaledplayersbutcarriessignificantrisksfor

Incentivepricingforbatteries:ScalingtheWesternsupplychain10

mostautomakersduetohighcapitalexpenditureburden,commodityexposure,andlimitedtransferableknow-how.

OEMsremainpivotaltoscalingsupplychains.Incentivepricingcanhelpchannelorscaletheircapitalmoreeffectivelybyreducingvolatilityandenablebetterrisksharing.Exampleincentivepricingmechanismsincludethefollowing:

—Shareramp-upandfixed-costriskbyusingmilestone-basedpolicyloanstofundearlylossesinnewfacilities.

—Enableflexibleutilizationthroughpublicbackstops(duringdemandslowdowns,channelexcesscapacityintogridstorageorotherstrategicreservesthatcouldsteadyutilization).

—Supportupstreaminvestmentthroughpricestabilizationtools,suchasreasonableprice

floorsinreturnforpriceceilings,whicharebettersuitedtoupstreammaterialswherelocal-contentenforcementislesseffectiveandinvestmentdependsmoredirectlyonmanagingpricevolatility.

Analogousindustriesandpotentialsolutions

Analogousindustriesoffersomeexamplesofhowsimilarinvestmentbarriershavebeen

overcome.Forinstance,reshoringinsemiconductorsandsteelshowsthatlarge-scaleindustrialinvestmentsucceedswhenthreeconditionsarepresent:credibledemand,durablepolicy

support,andtransparentpricingsignals.

Insemiconductors,credibledemandhasbeenanchoredbyhyperscalers,manufacturing,andthedefensesector,wherelong-termprocurementneedsprovidevisibilityintofuturevolumes.ThesedemandsignalsarereinforcedbydurablepolicysupportundertheEuropeanChipsAct,enablinginvestorstounderwritecapital-intensivemanufacturingprojects.

Insteel,pricingtransparencyandstabilityplayedacentralrole.TheUnitedStateshasplanned,begun,orcompleted21millionmetrictons(Mt)ofproductioncapacityfor2025orbeyond,

13

inadditiontoatotalproductionbaseofabout90Mt.

14

Section232tariffscreatedstabledomesticpricefloors,

15

helpingproducersmeetUScapacitywithconfidencethatdemandfrom

construction,automotive,andinfrastructurewouldabsorbnewsupply,giventhewell-establishedsupplychain.

Furtherupstream,inuraniumsupply,theUSgovernmentaddressedbothdemandcertaintyandpricingtransparencythroughstrategicstockpiling.Theestablishmentofafederalstrategic

uraniumreserveanditsexpansionvialong-termpurchasecontracts(ofuptotenyears)withdomesticproducersaimtocreatepredictabledemandanchorsandreducepriceuncertainty,therebycatalyzinginvestmentindomesticminingandprocessingcapacity.

16

13BobTita,“Theboomisnewsteelmillsisoutpacingdemand,”WallStreetJournal,August26,2025.

14“AISIreleasesAnnualStatisticalReportfor2023,”Americ