麦肯锡 -建立清晰的州级交通项目投资回报率框架的必要性 The case for a clear ROI framework for state transportation projects

August2025

Mcsey

&company

InfrastructurePractice

ThecaseforaclearROIframeworkforstate

transportationprojects

USstatedepartmentsoftransportationaresettingcapitalprioritiesagainstabackdropwherebankableplans—withthebestreturnsoninvestment—areincreasinglyimportantforprojectfunding.

ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyAlastairGreen,withBryanPounds,KhalidYasin,RaghuviirNarendran,andRebeckaPritchard,representingviewsfromMcKinsey’sInfrastructurePractice.

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2ThecaseforaclearROIframeworkforstatetransportationprojects

Inaprogressivelymorecomplexoperational

landscape,USstatedepartmentsoftransportation(DOTs)areatacriticaljunctureintheircapital

planning:Toobtainthefundingrequiredforprojects,theirproposalsneedtodemonstrateahighlevelof

efficiencycoupledwiththeabilitytodeliverthebestpossibleROI.

Primaryfactorsthatimpactplanninganddelivery

ofDOTcapitalprojectsincludecompetingprioritiesandtighteningbudgetsduetorisingmaterialcostsandinflation.Macroeconomicconditionssuch

asshortagesofskilledlabor,bothinternallyto

administerprojectsandexternallytodeliverthem,

alsoplayarole,asdoestheuncertaintysurroundingfederalreauthorizationoftheInfrastructure

InvestmentandJobsAct(IIJA)in2026,which

couldaffectcurrentfundingsourcesandprogramcontinuities.

Againstthisbackdrop,DOTsneedtoputforward

acompellingcaseforinvestment.ThisarticleputsforwardaframeworkthatcanhelpstateDOTsto

clearlyarticulatecapitalpriorities,highlightthe

ROIontaxpayermoney,andshowwhatsuccessfuloutcomescouldlooklikeforallstakeholders,

includingthepublic.ThisframeworkcanbeusedbyDOTstoeffectivelyprioritizeprojectsandcompeteforfundingopportunities.Thearticlealsohighlightsexamplesoflargeinfrastructureprojectswherethistypeofapproachhasprovensuccessful.

Atacrossroads:Statedepartmentsoftransportationfacecriticaldecisions

Multiplechallengesareatplayinthecurrentcapitalplanningenvironment,requiringstateDOTleaderstocarefullyconsidertrendsthatcouldimpacttheirabilitytoeffectivelyplan,develop,andimplement

capitalprograms.Threekeychallengescouldhavethegreatestimpact.

Competingcapitalpriorities,tight

projectbudgets,andincreasingassetmanagementneeds

StateDOTsfacesignificantchallengesinmanagingcompetingcapitalprioritiesdueinparttosystemicinefficienciesincapitalportfoliomanagement.

Capitalisoftentreatedasabudgetarytoolratherthanastrategicasset,leadingtotheprioritizationofprojectsonanasset-by-assetbasisrather

thandynamicallyacrossbusinessunitsorproject

types.Thisapproachcanresultinbiaseddecision-making,wherebenefitsareoverstatedandmarginalprojectsarepushedforward,furthercomplicating

theallocationoflimitedresources.

TighteningprojectbudgetsisapersistentissueforstateDOTs,exacerbatedbyfundingconstraints

anddecliningrevenuefromtraditionalsources

suchasfossilfueltaxes.Thesefinanciallimitationsmakeitdifficulttomeetthegrowingdemands

ofinfrastructuremaintenanceanddevelopment.Operatorsoftenstruggletomaximizeoperationalandcapitalexpenditure,leadingtoinefficienciesinprojectdelivery.Effortstoimproveefficienciesrequiresignificanteffortinplanning,resource

allocation,andperformancemeasurement,whichareoftenlackingduetobudgetaryconstraints.

Theincreasingdemandsofassetmanagement

presentanotherchallenge.Aginginfrastructure,

risingtrafficvolumes,andtheadoptionofheavier

electricvehicles(EVs)contributetoaccelerated

wearandtearonroadways,necessitatingmore

frequentmaintenanceandupdateddesign

approaches.Additionally,assetmanagement

practicesnowarerequiredtoalignwith

sustainabilitygoalsandtheenergytransition,

furthercomplicatingthesituation.Thesechallengesarecompoundedbygapsinstaffcapabilities,laborshortages,andlowproductivity,allofwhichlimittheabilityofDOTstomanageandmaintaintheirassetseffectively.

Last,increasingcompetitionforfundingcouldmeanthattransportationagencieswillneedtopresent

theirplansthroughaneconomicdevelopmentlensthatshowshowthemaximumROIcanbeobtained.However,agenciesmaystruggletodeterminewhichoftheirprojectshavethebestpotentialtopromoteeconomicgrowth,andhowtoprioritizethem.This

couldbeduetoalackofthenecessaryresourcesorcapabilitiestodeterminethepotentialpositiveimpactofaprojectonGDPandjobgrowth.

ThecaseforaclearROIframeworkforstatetransportationprojects3

Theimpactofmacroeconomicchallengesoncapitaldelivery

Severalfactors,includingashortageofskilledlabor,risingmaterialcosts,andsupplychainuncertainty,arecausingincreasesinprojectexpensesand

extendedtimelines.Uncertainmarketconditions

couldimpactbothasseteconomics(suchas

constructionmaterialandequipmentcosts)aswellasthebroadereconomy.Thisincreaseduncertaintymakesplanningandexecutingprojectsmore

challenging.

Inthecurrentlandscape,laborshortagesarea

reality.MonthlyunfilledconstructionpositionsintheUnitedStateshaveincreasedby38percentsince

2001,comparedtomonthlyhires,whichdeclinedbyaround25percentoverthesameperiod.1Althoughconstructionlaborsupplyhasrisensincethe

endoftheCOVID-19pandemic,labordemandis

stillhigh.Thesectorsawanestimated253,000

unfilledconstructionpositionsinFebruary2025.2

Constructionfirmsmayneedtoreassessworkforceplanning,andtraining,toensurethesectorhastheskilledworkforceitneeds.AndDOTsmayneedto

factorlaborsupplyintoprojecttimelines.

Meanwhile,essentialconstructionmaterialscostshaveincreasedbymorethan30percentoverthe

pastfiveyears.3Ongoingmarketuncertaintycouldcontinuetheupwardcosttrajectoryandpotentiallydisruptsupplychains.

Uncertaintyaroundfederalfunding

Theextentandtypesoffederalfundingavailable

beyondfiscalyear2026havetobedetermined,afactorwhichwilllikelyimpactbothshort-andlong-termDOTcapitalplans,makingitdifficultforstateDOTstocommittofutureprojects.

DOTsneedtoconsiderthatdisbursementsunder

theIIJAcouldchange.TheIIJAledtoa44percentincreaseinfundingfrom2021to2022anddictated

federaldisbursementsofstateDOTformulafunds

fromthe2022through2026financialyearsata

steady2percentCAGR.4AstheIIJAexpiresinthe

2026financialyear,DOTsarefacedwithuncertaintyaboutfuturefundinglevelswithinthenextsurface

transportationbill,andthusaredevelopingcapitalplansandachievingprojectfiscalsolvencybasedinpartonprogrammaticassumptions.

Developingacompellingcaseforinvestment

Againstthebackdropofincreasingcostsand

uncertaintyaboutwhatfundingwillbeavailable,

stateDOTsneedtobeabletosuccessfullytranslatetheircapitalandoperatingplansintoclearand

potentiallybeneficialresults—withacompelling

narrativethatincorporatesstakeholders’priorities

acrossthepublicandprivatesectors,aswellasthegeneralpublic’sinterests.StateDOTscanbenefit

fromadoptingastrategic,multiphasedapproach

thatemphasizesmarketunderstanding,stakeholderengagement,andinnovativeinvestmentstrategies.Asuccessfulnarrativewouldtypicallycontainthreekeycomponents.

1.Demonstrateanunderstandingof

outcomescriticalatthestate,population,andbusinesslevel

SuccessfulDOTsoftenworkcloselywithvarious

stakeholders—stateandlocalofficials,private

sectorinvestors,andthegeneralpublic—toensurethattheyareawareofthemetricsthatmatterand

howtomeasurethem.Transportationagencies

usuallytrackcriticalmetrics,suchasexpected

traveltimeandcongestion,butincludingeconomicindicatorscanbevaluable,suchasthepotential

impactonregionaleconomicgrowth,jobcreation,andsocialcostsforusersandpropertyowners(seesidebar“Developingabusinesscaseforaprivate

roadoperatortocontributetoeconomicgrowth”).

1

JobOpeningsandLaborTurnoverSurvey(JOLTS),USBureauofLaborStatistics,accessedApril4,2025.Datafor2025isthroughFebruary2025.

2

JobOpeningsandLaborTurnoverSurvey(JOLTS),USBureauofLaborStatistics,accessedApril4,2025.Datafor2025isthroughFebruary2025.

3“Commoditydataforspecialindexes—constructionmaterials,”USBureauofLaborStatistics,accessedJuly2025.

4“InfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct(PublicLaw117–58),”FederalHighwayAdministrationofUSDepartmentofTransportation,January2021.

4ThecaseforaclearROIframeworkforstatetransportationprojects

Developingabusinesscaseforaprivateroadoperatortocontributetoeconomicgrowth

AprivatelyoperatedtollroadintheUnitedStatesprovidesevidenceofhowroadinfrastructurecansupporteconomicgrowth—

achievedbydevelopinganunderstandingofthefullpotentialandvalueofitsasset.Thetollroadconnectsseveraleconomichubsinitsstateandpassesthroughruralcommunities.Athree-phaseapproachwasfollowedtoidentifykeygrowthdriversandthe

correspondingtrendsimpactingthem.

Acorrelationanalysiswasusedtoidentifythedriversoflightandheavyvehicletrafficonthetollroad.Inaddition,aGDPsensitivitystudycorrelatedtripsacrossassetswithcounty-level,industry-specific,andyear-on-yearchangesinGDP.

Trendsimpactingeachofthekeydriversoftrafficwereidentified,establishinghowthesewouldchangeovertime,andtheextentoftheimpactofeach.Theoperatorusedanalyticstoolsthathelpedassesswheretolocateoperationalsites(forexample,testinglocationfactorstocorrelatemarketsandthemostattractivetypeoffacility).Thisallowedtheoperatortoanalyzeitscompetitivepositionrelativetootherregionsandenableoracceleratethedevelopmentofnewbusinessesorindustriesalongtheasset.Theoperatoralsousedafreightintensitymodelthatprovideddetailedindustry-orsector-level,point-to-pointfreightflowsacross

thecountrythataccountedforeconomicoutlookorgrowth.Thelatterwasanimportantfactorasemergingtrendsaffectingthefutureoffreightflowscouldhavedirectandindirectimpactsontollroads.

Bydevelopingtargeted,strategicmanagementinitiativesthatalignedwithitskeyobjectives,theoperatorwasabletocreatethebusinesscaseforgrowthalongthecorridor,withlimiteddownside.Thethree-prongedapproachallowedittodemonstratehowtollroadscontributetoeconomicgrowthandimprovequalityoflifethroughbetterconnectivity.Thebusinesscaseprovedthat

developmentsalongthecorridorincreaseeconomicoutputbycreatingnewjobs,bothdirectlyandindirectly.

Ideally,thekeyoutcomesshouldbebacked

upbymarketresearchtoensurethatevolving

stakeholderneedsarealigned.StateDOTscanprioritizeinvestmentsthathavethepotential

tospureconomicgrowth—forexample,those

thattakeintoaccounthowmarketchangesandnewtechnologiescouldinfluenceindustries

thatrelyheavilyontransportationinfrastructure(suchaslogisticsandmanufacturing).Buildingstrongpartnershipswiththeprivatesectorandlocalstakeholderscanassistinsuccessfully

identifying,developing,anddeliveringsuitableprojects.SuchapartnershipcanalsoprovidevaluableinsightsandadditionalresourcesforstateDOTs.

Engagingwithprivatesectorentitiesand

regionalpartnerscanfollowastructured

approach,includingdefiningkeyrequirementsforsubjectmatterexpertstoserveonthe

advisorycouncil,settingupcollaborative

workshops,andschedulingregularmeetings.

Thesecollaborationscouldfocusondefining

KPIs,identifyingbottlenecks,andshaping

mobilitystrategies.Inaddition,incorporating

localcommunities’perspectivescanhelpensurethatprojectsaddresstheconcernsofthose

mostaffectedbyinfrastructuredevelopments.

Targetedsurveyscouldobtainfeedbackonthe

currentsituationandhelptoelicitsuggestionsformitigationoptionstohelpdrivechange.

2.Prioritizeprojectstiedtoquantifiableeconomicoutcomes

Performingananalysisattheprojectlevelcan

helpdevelopanoutlineoftheoutcomesand

impactsacrosstheidentifiedKPIsthatmatter

mosttothestate.ThisprovidesDOTswithadeepunderstandingofthecostandtimingcomponentsofaprojectaswellashowtheycouldgenerate

additionalbenefitstothebroaderregionandeconomy.

ThecaseforaclearROIframeworkforstatetransportationprojects5

Theprocesscanincludedevelopingasuiteof

KPIsthataremeasurable,easytotrack,and

comprehensibletobothDOTprogrammanagersandexternalstakeholders.TheseKPIswould

guidedecision-makingandcommunicate

progresseffectively,aswellasarticulatethe

expectedoutcomesofindividualprojects,

includingimprovementsinspeed,reliability,andsafety.Demonstratingtangiblebenefitscan

reinforcethevalueofinfrastructureinvestmentstostakeholdersanddecision-makers.

Privatesectorexpertisecanbesoughttohelp

validateprojectprioritiesandensurealignmentwithindustryneeds.Thisapproachcanfoster

buy-inandsupportforinfrastructureinitiatives(seesidebar“DevelopingafreightinfrastructurefundingstrategyforaUSstatedepartmentof

transportation”).

DevelopingafreightinfrastructurefundingstrategyforaUSstatedepartmentoftransportation

Astatedepartmentoftransportation(DOT)wantedtoenhanceits$500millionfreightinfrastructureplanningstrategy,withthegoalofdevelopingamultimodalfreightplanthatcouldboostthestate’soveralleconomiccompetitiveness.Abusiness-focusedlenswasappliedtotheplanningprocess,usingaprivatesectoradvisorycommitteetoinformcapitalinvestmentprioritiesforkeyfreightcorridors.Thebusiness-backedapproachinvolvedthreephases.

ThefirstphasedefinedtheanticipatedmarketdynamicsfacingthestateDOT’skeyusers.Considerationsincludedidentifying

whatfactorswereimportanttokeyindustries,thetrendsexpectedtomakeanimpact,andwhattypeoffreightmovedaroundthestate,andhow.TheDOTestimatedthepotentialfreightimpactsfrominfrastructureimprovements,aswellasthelikelyeconomicdevelopmentimplicationsfortheworkforceatthecountylevel.TheDOTfurtherinvestigatedthepossibleimpactoftechnology

andpolicychangesonfreightflowsandshipperorcarrierdecision-making.

Inthesecondphase,thestateDOTdevelopedastructuredapproachtoengagingwiththeprivatesectorandkeylocaland

regionalpublicpartners.ItdefinedKPIsbysubindustry,validatedkeyfreightcorridorsbycommodityandmode,identified

bottlenecksanddegradationpointsforKPIs,andconsideredotherfactorsthatshapehowfreightwillmove,byindustry.ThisKPI-drivenapproachallowedtheDOTtoquantifyROIforvariousprojecttypes.

Phasethreeinvolvedscenariomodelingthatusedaprivateequityinvestmentlens.Thisapproachtestedprojectperformanceatasystemlevel,aswellasagainstdifferentinvestmenttheses.Suchmodelingcreatedaprioritizationstrategythatrankedprojectsbasedonperformanceoutcomes—thosethatwouldputthestateinapositiontomaximizethedeploymentoffundstothemost

impactfulprojects,investmentpackages,orevenindividualprojects.Thisapproachhelpedtodriveprivatesectorsupportandbuy-in.

Theresultantplanmetallthefederalrequirementsandpositionedthestatetomaximizeitsinfrastructureinvestments.In

aggregate,each$1investedacrosstheportfolioisexpectedtoyieldanine-timesmonetaryreturnforbusinessesby2050by

improvingsafety,speed,reliability,andcostthroughoutthefreightnetwork.By2050,theestimatedimpactoftheidentified

portfolioofprojectscomparedwiththecurrentprojectpipelineincludesanapproximate3percentimprovementinaverage

networkspeedacrossfreightcorridors,a25percentreductionincosttoshippersandcarriersindollarspervehiclemiletraveled,andanapproximate35percentimprovementinsafety,asmeasuredbythesocialcostofcrashes.

3.Alignscenariomodelingwithdesiredoutcomes

DetailedscenariomodelingcanallowstateDOTstoassessthepotentialimpactofdifferentcapitalprogramsandeffectivelycommunicatethe

possibletrade-offsofdifferentprojectportfolios,bothintermsofinvestmentaswellasregional

andeconomicoutcomes.Keycomponents

ofscenariomodelingincludeperformingan

investmentanalysistoevaluatetheoverall

performanceoftheinvestmentpackagesandcommunicatingplanseffectively.

Aprivateequityinvestmentlenscanhelptotesttheperformanceofaportfolioorprojectpackageagainstvariousinvestmenttheses,suchas

consistentgrowth,potentialfundingshortfalls,andpotentialgrowthincertainfundingsources.ThistypeofapproachwouldallowstateDOTs

toassesstheimpactsofvariousinvestment

strategiesonsystem-levelperformance.

Analyzingthetrade-offsofdifferentinvestment

choicescouldprovideabetterunderstanding

oftheirimplicationsforvariousaspects,

includingnetworkreliability,safety,andcost.

Understandingprojectsequencingwouldhelptoavoidcompetitionforresourcesthatcouldcausedelaysandincreasecosts.

Investmentstrategies,aswellasthepotential

trade-offsofthedifferentscenarios,wouldneedtobecommunicatedbroadlybothintermsoftherequiredinvestmentandregionalandeconomicoutcomes.Obtainingsuccessfulbuy-infrom

citizensandbusinessesrequirestransparencyabouttheprocessofdevelopingthese

strategies—adocumentthatsetsoutthestate-levelinvestmentplan,forexample.AlthoughnotaUSexample,aEuropeannationalroadownerandoperatorthatmaintainsandimprovesthe

nationalroadnetworkprovidesacompelling

transformationcasestudy(seesidebar

“TransformingaEuropeannationalroadoperatorintoacustomer-centricserviceprovider”).

6ThecaseforaclearROIframeworkforstatetransportationprojects

TransformingaEuropeannationalroadoperatorintoacustomer-centricserviceprovider

Theoperatorwantedtotransformitsroadnetworktobenefititsusers,includingbothcitizensandbusinesses.Thesebenefitsincludedimprovingsafetyandcustomerexperiencewhileoptimizingtheuseoftaxpayerfundsanddevelopingnewcapabilitieswithintheorganization.Throughcapitalandoperationalexpenditurebenefits,theoperatorwasabletoachieveatotalof

approximately$768millioninoptimizedtaxpayerfunds.

Theprogramthatwasdevelopedandimplementedevolvedaroundthreekeyprinciplesandfivekeythemes.Theprinciplesfocusedondeliveringbenefitsfortheendusersofthenetwork,developinginternalcapabilities,andcreatingsustained

improvements.Thefivekeythemescomprisedthefollowingactions:

1.Optimizingcapitalschemeandmaintenanceportfoliosthroughthealignmentofinvestmentsandactionswithbusinessneeds,intandemwithproactive,forward-lookingbundlingaswellasprojectvalueoptimizationthroughafact-based

approach.Apartfromconnectingcommunitiesandempoweringnewbusinesses,theorganizationwasabletoincreaseworkdeliveredbybetween20and30percentwhilstreducingroad-spaceoccupancybycontractorsbyanaverageof17percentacrossfiveregions.

2.Maximizingplanningandprogramdevelopmentbyconsistentlychallengingassetneeds(forexample,repairversus

replace)andintegratingdeliveryplansacrossinternalandexternalneeds,suchassupplychainpartners’requirementstooptimizedelivery.

3.Streamliningtheorganization’sinternalsetupthroughazero-basedbudgetingapproachtoalignwithregulatoryoutputsandfocusingonroadusers’andcontractors’needs.Thisincludedworkingthroughnaturalattritionandreskillingtorebalancetheorganizationbasedonend-userneeds.

4.Followingadata-basedandrisk-basedapproachformaintainingproductivityandprovidingintelligencetoensuredeliveryontimeandonbudget.

5.Buildingca