摩根士丹利-铂族金属新供应激励：现货价格充足支撑多数潜在项目-Incentivising new supply-20261007

RMBIOMrganstanleyIDEA

October7,202611:01PMGMT

SARocks|EuropeRMBMoRGANSTANLEyPRopRiETARyLimiTED+

BrianMorgan

lncentivisingnewsupplyChristopherNicholson

SpotPGMpricesarehighenoughtojustifythemajorityof

EEMEA-MEtals&MiNiNg

potentialprojects.Europe

IndustryViewIn-Line

Exhibit1:Weestimatethatcurrentpricesarehighenoughtoprovideareturnon

SAGold:Favouredcommodity,buythelaggards

60%ofthePGMprojectsinourdatabase

(7Oct2026)

Incentivepricecostcurve–potentialPGMsupply(US$/4Eoz,real)metal&ROCK:Long-termIncentivePrices:

3,500

DevelopmentCostsRising(6Oct2026)

A

u3,000

2Metals&Mining:4Q26-FollowtheCash(6Oct

%

R

h

,2,5002026)

o

z

1

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0

%

PSAPGMs:Capandcollar(6Oct2026)

d2,000

,

(

U

3

S

0

$

iSADiversifiedMining:Capexcatch-up(6Oct

c

%

/

e

P

4

p

t

E

r

,1,500

i2026)

v

5

e

8

%

t

o

I1,000

nmetal&ROCK:ThePriceDeck–4Q26:Selective

c

e

n

tOptimism(6Oct2026)

500

S

t

aRMBMorganStanleyEconomics&Equities:Big

n

d

a0

r

d01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000Five&OffPisteConferenceFeedback2026(29

i

s

e

dCumulativeproduction(koz4Epa)Sep2026)

IncentivepriceSpotbasketLTrealbasketPaper&Packaging:Muchhealthier(11Sep

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates2026)

SasolLtd:Macros,managementandmoat(7

Overall,we'refindingcurrentpricesarehighenoughtojustify60%ofthenearly

Sep2026)

8Mozofannualproductionthe20projectsinourdatabasecouldproduce.Ifspot

priceshold,we'reexpectingmoreandmoreoftheseprojectstobeapproved.NorthamPlatinumLimited:Unsolicited

approach(25Aug2026)

Asourcommodityteamwritesinthisnote(link),we'veliftedthelong-termpricesGoldFieldsLimited:Chartingtheinvestment

weuseinourmodels.Thenetresultisanincreaseinour4ebasketpricetocR40k/case(20Aug2026)

oz.Werecentlywroteaboutthetrendwe'veseenamongstPGMproducersofrisingThungelaResourcesLtd:SideFX(19Aug2026)

long-termpricedecks,here.MostrecentlyImpalahaslifteditslong-termprice

assumptionsby⅓,yetremainsbelowspotwithrhodium,palladiumwellbelow

spot,andplatinumabove.Northam'slong-termpriceismuchhigher,atR49k/oz.The

company'sapproachistoforecastthelong-termcostcurve(saymid-2030s),

includinggeologicalinflationanddepletion,andthenusethepricethatwouldallow

aproducerinthemiddleofthecurvetobefreecashflowpositive.Welikethe

RMBMorganStanleyisamemberoftheJSELimitedandA2X

conceptoftheapproach,butwelackconfidenceinourabilitytomodelvolumes/(Pty)Ltd.

grades/costsin10years'time.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,

investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictof

Weprimarilyuseprojectincentivepricestoset(oratleastsanitycheck)ourinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

long-termprices,inconjunctionwithlong-runindustrymarginsandindustrycost/Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestment

margincurves.Therearesignificantflawsineachcase.Forincentiveprices,theleaddecision.

timefornewprojectswayexceedsthepointatwhichweseeourlong-termprices.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,

Furthermore,inourexperience,miningcompaniesrarelywaitforincentivepricestorefertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthis

report.

berealisedbeforetriggeringprojectsduetotheselongleadtimes,butratherinvest+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregistered

onthebasisofexpectationsofpricesbeinghighenoughtoincentiviseprojects.withFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthemember

andmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearances

Ourprojectincentivepipelineconsistsof20discreteprojectsthatwe'reawareandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

RMBIOMrganstanleyIdea

of.Thereareotherprojects,butwethinkthislistprovidesaverycomprehensive

weightedviewoftheinvestmentdecisionsfacedbymanagementteamsofPGM

companies.Inourworkingswebeginwithfeasibilitystudyparameters,totheextent

they'vebeenprovidedbymanagement,andthenapplyourownjudgementtoflex

theseparameters,basedonourexperienceoftheindustry.Inotherinstanceswe

benchmarkbasedonsimilarprojects.Wenormalisetheincentivepricingtoreflecta

58%Pt,30%Pd,10%Rhand2%Auprillwithby-productslikenickelbasedonour

long-termnickelincentivepricesoffsetagainstcosts.Thisresultsinpalladium

dominantprojectsshiftingtotherightofourcurve.

2

RMBIOMrganstanleyIDEA

Comparatives

Exhibit2:SpotbasedcompsofSAlistedresourcesstocks

Spotup/(down)sideto

%up/consensusEPS

LastcloseSpotmetrics(2027)30dshare30dADV

Rating(down)LTMTSR

(R/s)priceperf.($m)

sidetoPTP/EEV/EBITDAFCFyFY26FY27

DiversifiedMining

AngloAmerican++910.90NM28.8x8.9x2%-23%-19%40%>50

ARMEW156.5028%9.6x4.6x-4%-40%-13%4

BHPOW715.0010%16.1x7.7x6%-3%54%>50

ExxaroOW174.0026%4.2x3.4x12%5%16%11%11

GlencoreOW125.8831%9.1x6.1x13%4%26%58%>50

KumbaEW221.544%9.1x3.7x4%-20%2%-25%6

South32OW56.956%14.3x5.0x10%1%78%>50

ThungelaUW122.77-43%5.1x2.1x14%-29%-11%51%5

PGMs

ImplatsOW187.5028%6.4x3.4x15%-5%-7%48

NorthamEW249.4524%7.7x5.0x7%2%-5%40

SibanyeEW41.1517%4.4x3.6x12%3%-33%-10%>50

ValterraEW1,271.051%9.8x5.7x8%9%-2%16%>50

Gold

AngloGoldEW1,536.956%11.7x5.9x8%-3%-21%25%>50

GoldFieldsOW594.6116%8.8x4.7x9%-7%-24%-14%>50

HarmonyOW281.3917%6.7x3.9x8%-20%-11%>50

Non-miningresources

MondiEW174.253%16.0x8.8x-3%19%23%-13%26

SappiEW13.1130%NM27.0x-46%NM-73%-37%2

SasolEW235.99-24%3.2x2.5x28%38%121%>50

Source:MorganStanleyResearchestimates.++StockRating,PriceTarget,orEstimatesforthiscompanyhavebeenremovedfromconsiderationinthisreportbecause,underapplicablelawand/orMorganStanleypolicy,

MorganStanleymaybeprecludedfromissuingsuchinformationwithrespecttothiscompanyatthistime.Note:Pricedatcloseon6October2026;NM=notmeaningful.

RMB|MoRGANSTANLEy3

RMBIOMrganstanleyIDEA

PerformanceScorecard

Exhibit3:Last12months(LTM)totalreturns:majorMetals&Exhibit4:Last12months(LTM)totalreturns:general&mining

Miningequitiesindices

LTMTotalReturns:MajorMetalsandMiningcompaniesLTMTotalReturns:General&MiningIndices

DSSteelIndex49%

Freeport-McMoRan80%

STOXXEU600BasicRes44%

ArcelorMittal68%

MSCIWorldM&M35%

BHPBillitonLimited63%

FTSE350Mining27%

Glencore63%

NYSEARCAGoldBugs18%

AngloAmerican46%

BOVESPA43%

RioTintoPlc44%

TSXComposite17%

NewmontMining32%

S&P50016%

AlcoaCorp28%

FTSE10011%

Vale27%

JSEAll-Share-1%

BarrickMining20%

ASX200-3%

ZijinMining9%

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Source:ThomsonReuters,MorganStanleyResearch.ReturnsinUSDSource:Datastream,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit5:Last12months(LTM)totalreturns:copperequitiesExhibit6:Last12months(LTM)totalreturns:goldequities

LTMTotalReturns:CopperEquitiesLTMTotalReturns:GoldEquities

LMECopper36%LBMAGold.5%

Kurotani127%Centerra88%

MitsuiMiningAndSmelting99%DowaHoldings60%

Buenaventura33%

SumitomoMetalMining90%

PanAfricanResources(GBP)32%

KGHM86%

NewmontMining32%

Freeport-Mcmoran80%EndeavourMining32%

GrupoMexico76%RegisResources31%

MitsubishiMaterials73%EldoradoGold29%

HudbayMinerals72%AnglogoldAshanti24%

SouthernCopper64%NewGold24%

EvolutionMining23%

LundinMining63%

BarrickMining20%

DowaHoldings60%

RoyalGold15%

SandfireResources55%Franco-Nevada10%

Antofagasta41%Agnico-EagleMinesm9%

ZijinMining

Aurubis38%m9%

EntréeGold32%ZhongjinGoldCorpLtd8%

ResoluteMining

JiangxiCopper27%6%

NorthernStarResources4%

Boliden26%

AlamosGold-6%

FirstQuantumMinerals

24%KinrossGold-6%

Chinalco19%S.A.M.C.(Ma'aden)-6%

ChinaNon-ferrous-10%HarmonyGoldMining-7%m

IvanhoeMines-23%GoldFields-13%

Drdgold-17%

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%

ShandongGoldMiningCoLtd-26%

ZhaojinMining-47%

MedusaMining-48%

Source:ThomsonReuters,MorganStanleyResearch.ReturnsinUSD.-100%-50%0%50%100%

Source:ThomsonReuters,MorganStanleyResearch.ReturnsinUSD.

4

RMBIOMrganstanleyIDEA

Exhibit7:Last12months(LTM)totalreturns:silverequitiesExhibit8:Last12months(LTM)totalreturns:ironoreequities

LTMTotalReturns:SilverEquitiesLTMTotalReturns:IronOreEquities

LBMASilver26%IronOre(62%FeNorthChina)-6%

SilverStandard46%BHPBillitonLimited63%

FirstMajesticSilver37%RioTintoPlc44%

HochschildMining35%MinRes36%

FortunaSilverMines24%CAP2%

IndustriasPenolesSABdeCV17%Cliffs-3%

PanAmericanSilver15%Fortescue-7%

FresnilloPlc15%NMDCLtd-9%

AmericasSilverCorporation11%KumbaIronOre-27%

EndeavourSilver11%ChampionIron-35%

ExcellonResources-5%FerrexpoPlc-36%

CoeurMining-11%ZanagaIronOre-61%

-20%0%20%40%60%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%

Source:ThomsonReuters,MorganStanleyResearch.ReturnsinUSD.Source:ThomsonReuters,MorganStanleyResearch.ReturnsinUSD.

Exhibit9:Last12months(LTM)totalreturns:aluminiumExhibit10:Last12months(LTM)totalreturns:cokingcoal

equitiesequities

LTMTotalReturns:AluminiumEquitiesLTMTotalReturns:CokingCoalEquities

15%CokingCoal(AustraliaFOB)43%

South32Ltd93%SuncokeEnergy

68%

NationalAluminium43%AlphaMetallurgicalResources5%

40%

ShandongNanshanAluminium