摩根士丹利-全球中国AI半导体：台积电联发科预览中国CoWoS内存CPONPO-GlobalChina AI Semis：TSMCMedia Tek Preview,China Co WoSMemory,CPONPO-20261009

MorganstanleyRESEARCHFouNDATloN

October9,202604:45AMGMT

InvestorPresentation|AsiaPacificMoRGANSTANLEyTAiwANLimiTEd+

CharlieChan

Global/ChinaAlSemis:TSMC/MediaTekPreview,DanielYen,CFA

ChinaCoWoS/Memory,CPO/NPO

MoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTEd+

DaisyDai,CFA

MoRGANSTANLEyTAiwANLimiTEd+

LucasWang

MoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTEd+

HenryZhao

EthanJia

GREATERCHiNATEcHNoLoGySEmicoNDucToRs

AsiaPacific

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Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,

refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthis

report.

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MorganstanleyRESEARCHFouNDATloN

StrongAISemiOutlook

•Topideas:

•OW:

•AI:MediaTek(TopPick),TSMC,SMIC,Aspeed,Alchip,KYEC,ASE,ASMPT,AllRing,GUC

•Memory:CXMT,Macronix,APMemory(TopPick),NanyaTech,Winbond,GigaDevice

•China–AI/Semis/WFE:Iluvatar,Cambricon,Hygon,NAURATech,AMEC

•TestingEquipmentandConsumables:MPI,HonPrecision

•Maturenodes:UMC

•EW:OmniVision,Phison,MetaX,Realtek,GlobalWafers,FOCI,WINSemi

•UW:Silergy,ASMedia

Long-termdemanddrivers:

•Chipinflation:Weexpect“priceelasticity”toaffectdemandfortechproducts.Risingwafer,OSAT,andmemory

costscreatemoremarginheadwindsforchipdesignersin2026.

•AIcannibalization:Besidesdemandweakness(AIreplacingsomehumanjobs),weseethesemisupplychain

alsoprioritizingAIsemisovernon-AIsemis,e.g.,T-Glassandmemoryshortages.

•China–AI:DeepSeekistriggeringinferencingAIdemand:DeepSeekhasdemonstratedcheaperinferencing.

ThelocalfoundrysupplychainisalsobecomingmorecapableintermsofAIGPUproduction.

2

MorganstanleyRESEARCHFouNDATloN

ValuationComparison:Foundry,Back-end,Memory,IDMandSemiCap

3MAvg

DividendFCFMarket.P/ERatio(x)EPSGrowthROAEP/BRatio(x)

Daily

PriceCurrPriceUpside/YieldYieldCapTrading

TickerCompany10/8/2026encyTargetDownsideRating(%)(%)(US$M)(US$M)2026e2027e2028e2026e2027e2028e2026e2027e2028e2026e2027e2028e

Foundry

2330.TWTSMC2,550.0TWD3,088.021%O1.4%1.8%2,087,7312,117.722.116.713.474%32%24%45%42%38%8.46.04.4

2303.TWUMC147.5TWD188.027%O5.1%5.3%58,798728.521.020.816.3111%1%27%21%20%23%4.24.03.7

0981.HKSMIC56.8HKD85.050%O0.0%-5.0%51,016702.5NMNMNM126%65%18%7%11%11%NMNMNM

5347.TWOVanguard186.5TWD180.0-3%E4.9%3.1%10,944102.234.227.622.431%24%23%12%14%17%4.03.83.6

1347.HKHuaHong95.6HKD128.034%E0.1%-4.6%21,242524.0NMNMNM491%76%30%4%7%8%NMNMNM

6770.TWPSMC72.2TWD111.054%O0.0%5.6%9,630368.5NMNMNM-151%301%28%4%11%12%1.51.21.0

3105.TWOWINSemi581.0TWD600.03%E0.5%-3.8%2,264330.9NM51.528.6117%31%80%9%11%18%5.55.45.0

8086.TWOAWSC154.0TWD130.0-16%U1.1%-3.9%95615.924.321.617.489%13%24%14%14%16%3.32.92.5

Mean:1.6%-0.2%29.233.522.8111%68%32%15%16%18%4.53.93.4

Median:0.8%-1.0%23.221.617.4100%32%26%10%13%16%4.13.93.6

Memory

688825.SSCXMT50.5CNY88.074%ONANA469,4053,421.916.810.68.0NM59%33%105%69%51%11.15.43.2

603986.SSGigaDevice334.4CNY750.0124%O0.3%4.1%31,0263,003.49.67.46.41302%30%15%78%57%45%5.23.32.4

2408.TWNanyaTech532.0TWD580.09%O0.0%13.6%51,7751,110.38.64.77.2NMNMNM77%68%29%4.42.21.6

2344.TWWinbond177.0TWD288.063%O0.0%16.6%25,151669.07.13.63.0NMNMNM68%67%46%3.61.81.1

8299.TWOPhison2,060.0TWD2,588.026%E1.5%1.6%14,178265.65.515.636.5839%-65%-57%83%22%10%3.33.63.7

SIMO.OSiliconMotion261.9USD400.053%O2.2%2.1%8,979247.622.812.69.5263%81%33%38%47%45%7.35.13.7

2337.TWMacronix116.0TWD220.090%O4.6%17.2%6,796207.6NMNMNM-1421%159%5%69%81%46%2.41.00.6

Mean:1.4%9.2%11.79.111.8246%53%6%74%59%39%5.33.22.3

Median:0.9%8.8%9.19.07.6551%59%15%77%67%45%4.43.32.4

Backend

3711.TWASEH744.0TWD858.015%O2.2%6.0%102,505383.140.422.613.0100%79%74%20%30%41%7.56.24.7

600584.SSJCET62.6CNY90.244%O0.4%5.7%15,5621,531.242.630.523.468%40%30%8%11%13%3.53.22.8

688820.SSSJSemi106.0CNY118.412%ENANA27,418316.9179.3122.089.43%47%37%6%8%9%9.68.98.1

601231.SSUSI23.1CNY39.370%O1.4%-7.4%7,657120.922.515.212.023%48%27%11%15%17%2.52.21.9

2449.TWKYEC304.5TWD348.014%O1.9%1.7%12,345205.233.622.316.11%51%38%21%28%32%6.95.74.7

3363.TWOFOCI667.0TWD688.03%E0.2%4.8%2,21572.4NMNMNMNMNMNM-2%39%75%NMNMNM

Mean:1.5%1.5%28.118.814.039%53%41%14%18%23%6.05.24.4

Median:1.7%3.7%28.118.814.023%48%37%11%15%17%6.95.74.7

PowerSemis/IDM

688396.SSCRMicro52.0CNY51.6-1%U0.2%1.6%9,565203.441.228.921.2153%43%37%7%9%11%2.62.42.2

600460.SSSilanMicro29.6CNY26.9-9%U0.5%2.1%6,852485.738.224.318.8224%57%29%10%14%16%3.53.12.7

603290.SSStarPower78.9CNY110.040%E1.0%0.0%2,623100.358.833.221.4-21%77%56%5%8%11%2.62.42.2

300373.SZYangjie81.0CNY136.068%O1.4%-2.8%6,076234.027.019.114.629%41%31%15%19%21%3.93.32.8

Mean:0.8%0.2%41.326.419.096%55%38%9%12%14%3.22.82.5

Median:0.7%0.8%39.726.620.091%50%34%8%11%13%3.12.82.5

Semicap/Equipment/Materials/SupplyChain

002371.SZNAURA600.3CNY788.031%O0.6%-0.9%60,4321,034.554.933.927.024%62%26%17%23%24%8.77.26.0

688012.SSAMEC313.2CNY428.037%O0.0%17.6%41,5371,214.752.445.634.786%15%32%21%21%22%10.68.66.8

7769.TWHonPrecision5,925.0TWD10,008.069%O2.5%NA33,658153.445.926.615.969%72%67%37%53%65%NM12.48.9

6223.TWOMPI5,575.0TWD8,000.043%O0.0%-5.4%17,249156.786.437.117.498%133%113%35%57%76%NMNMNM

6515.TWWinway5,615.0TWD12,000.0114%O0.9%1.3%6,339108.2NM26.212.899%132%104%44%69%84%NMNMNM

6488.TWOGlobalWafers1,130.0TWD900.0-20%E2.7%1.7%17,060353.747.731.822.155%50%44%12%16%