摩根士丹利-印度互联网与电信行业投资者演示报告-Investor Presentation：India Internet and Telecoms-20261001

MorganstanleyRESEARCHFouNdatioN

October1,202604:32PMGMT

IndiaTechnology|AsiaPacificMoRGANSTANLEyINdiACompANyPRivATELimiTEd+

GauravRateria

lnvestorPresentation:lndialnternetandTelecomsSulabhGovila,CFA

SakshiRana

Telecoms–WeexpecttheindustryrepairphasetocontinueandseesustainablereturnratioprofileimprovementforBhartiAirtel,

andhenceareOWonthename.ShreshthaChopra

Internet–WepreferEternal,UrbanCompany,Shadowfax,andPineLabs,reflectingsuperiorrisk-rewardprofilesandupside

potential.INDiATEcHNoLoGy

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewIn-Line

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refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthis

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MorganstanleyRESEARCHFouNDATloN

India

Internet

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Indiapresentsalong-termgrowthopportunityintheonlinefooddeliveryandquick

commercespace

FoodDeliveryGOVexpectedtoreachRs~2tnbyFY31–withFDpenetrationQuickCommerceIndustryTAM–marketSize

inIndiaincreasingfrom15%inFY26to20%inFY31

QCMarketSize2030BearBaseBull

Households(Mn)405055

UniqueMTU(Mn)658485

MTUOrderFrequency(x)4.98.46.5

NoofOrders(Bn)3.88.56.6

NetAOV(Rs/order)800500950

MarketSizeNOV(US$Bn)33~4568

NOVSpendperHoushold

8308861240

NOVSpendperMTU(US$)

510531800

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates.Note:EternalhasstoppedreportingGOVinFDsegment,soforEternal,GOVusedisMorganStanleyResearch

estimatesforcalculatingindustry'sfooddeliveryGOVestimates.

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Fooddeliverysofarhasbeenaduopolymarket,withEternalmaintainingits

leadershiporevenexpandingthegapvs.others

MTU(inMn)–Eternal’sZomatohasseenhighercustomerGOVperMTUperannum–Eternalhasbeenclosingthegapvs.

additionsvsSwiggy,andweexpectthistrendtocontinueSwiggyFDGOVspentperMTUp.a.

FoodDeliveryGOVYoYgrowth(Eternal-Swiggy)(%)FoodDeliveryGOVrelativemarketshare(Eternal-Swiggy)(%)

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates.Note:EternalhasstoppedreportingGOVinFDsegment,soforEternal,GOVusedisMorganStanleyResearch

estimates

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Quickcommerce:StrongexecutionbyEternal

MTU(inMn)–Blinkithasseenhighercustomeradditionsvs.Instamart,NOVperMTU-BothBlinkitandInstamarthavebeenexpandingtheir

andweexpectthistrendtocontinuecustomerwalletshare-whiletheAOVgaphasconvergedbetweenthetwo,

theGOVperMTUhasnotnecessarilyreflectedthesametrend

QCNOVGrowthYoY%forEternal'sBlinkitvs.Swiggy'sInstamartQuickcommerceNOVrelativemarketshare(Blinkitvs.Instamart)(%)

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates.

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Swiggy:OptionalityfromQuickcommerce

Quickcommerce–QCnetAOV(calculated)trendssuggestSwiggy’sInstamartandEternal’sBlinkit:MTUgrowthseemstobe

SwiggyhasnarrowedthegapwithBlinkitmovinginlinewithdarkstoregrowthandInstamart’sMTUgrowth/Dark

storegrowtharelowervs.Blinkit

Eternal’sBlinkitvs.Swiggy’sInstamart–DarkstorenetworkOrdersperdayperdarkstore

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates.

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Eternalvs.Swiggy:ExpecttheprofitabilitygaptokeepnarrowingforSwiggyvs.Zomato

FDConsolidatedadj.EBITDAasa%ofGOVQCAdjEBITDAas%ofNOV–ExpectBlinkitadjEBITDAprofitbyFY29eof

~US$450mn(marginsof2.9%ofNOV)

Cashbalanceforboth(Eternal–Swiggy)(Rsbn)

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates.

MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH7

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Eternal:FinancialSummary

CONSOLIDATEDPROFITANDLOSSSTATEMENTCONSOLIDATEDBALANCESHEET

Yearended31MarchFY25FY26FY27EFY28EFY29EYearended31MarchFY25FY26FY27EFY28EFY29E

RupeeRate(Rs/US$)8589929292Property,plantandequipment9,65020,33022,72017,5979,547

Revenues(US$mn)2,3876,12510,41313,95817,344Rightofuseasset19,18042,94054,80161,59766,438

%chgYoY63%157%70%34%24%Goodwill57,37057,37057,37057,37057,370

TotalRevenues(RsMn)202,430543,640959,9701,290,078r1,603,076Otherintangibleassets9,1206,1103,7711,909536

%chgYoY67%169%77%34%24%Otherfinancialassets27,44016,06016,06016,06016,060

Employeeexpenses25,58035,36044,99050,82455,095Otherassets116,460107,550112,508116,882121,031

%ofsales13%7%5%4%3%Totalnon-currentassets239,220250,360267,231271,414270,981

TotalRMCost55,650301,670585,621794,507993,625

%ofsales27%55%61%62%62%Inventories1,76021,81028,80437,97046,946

OtherExpenses114,830194,530294,684384,150457,188Investments22,72050,91059,81690,109147,834

%ofsales57%36%31%30%29%Tradereceivables19,46017,64026,49034,92043,175

EBITDA6,37012,08034,67560,59797,169Cashandcashequivalents6,6609,96012,82712,82712,827

EBITDAmargin(%)3%2%4%5%6%Otherbankbalances29,4805,2705,2705,2705,270

AdjustedEBITDA10,79011,89030,28050,79784,926Otherfinancialassets27,69035,37035,37035,37035,370

AdjustedEBITDAmargin(%)5%2%3%4%5%Taxassets(net)00000

Depreciation&Amortization8,63015,97026,10232,19232,432Totalcurrentassets117,010157,000187,138240,933321,672

EBIT(2,260)(3,890)8,57328,40564,737Totalassets356,230407,360454,369512,347592,653

EBITmargin(%)-1%-1%1%2%4%

Otherincome10,77013,96014,46014,96015,460EQUITYandLIABILITIES

FinanceCosts1,5403,9207,4679,1409,641Equityattributabletoparent303,170309,800318,563344,835398,457

PBT/LossbeforeTax6,9706,15015,56634,22670,556Non-controllinginterests-70-70-70-70-70

Tax1,7002,4906,8027,95416,933Totalequity303,100309,730318,493344,765398,387

RecurringPAT/Lossaftertax5,2703,6608,76326,27153,622

MinorityInterest-----Borrowings00000

RecurringPAT/Lossaftertaxafterminority5,2703,6608,76326,27153,622LeaseLiabilities16,54038,33048,65855,03457,816

ReportedPAT/Lossaftertaxafter

5,2703,6608,76326,27153,622

exceptionalitemsTotalnon-currentliabilities19,87040,91054,32562,01766,087

%chgYoY50%-31%139%200%104%

Totaloutstandingduesofcreditorsotherthanmicroand

14,61027,78042,88257,26671,351

NetMargin(%)3%1%1%2%3%smallenterprises

EPSBasic(Rs)0.600.400.912.725.56LeaseLiabilities3,9107,59011,47312,97713,633

EPSDiluted(Rs)0.580.390.912.725.56Otherliabilities14,74021,35027,19635,32443,195

9,6903,4704,36816,47141,379Totalcurrentliabilities33,26056,72081,551105,566128,179

CONSOLIDATEDCASHFLOWSTATEMENTTotalEquityandLiabilities356,230407,360454,369512,347592,653

Yearended31MarchFY25FY26FY27EFY28EFY29E

Restatedlossbeforetax6,9706,1508,76326,27153,622KEYMETRICS

Depreciation5,76012,91023,48330,04930,779Yearended31MarchFY25FY26FY27EFY28EFY29E

ChangesinWorkingCapital-10,930-12,280309-3,924-3,799FDaveragemonthlytransactingcustomers(mn)2124283133

OperatingCashFlow3,0806,32034,27551,99170,458Averageordervalue(Rs)453472479483488

CapitalExpenditure-9,360-17,510-14,770-12,251-10,500GrossOrderValue(RsMn)386,460462,360560,052667,165772,565

Investments-550,230-482,160-8,906-30,293-57,725%YoY19.9%19.6%21.1%19.1%15.8%

Others479,660505,03017,00819,21920,398GrossOrderValue(US$Mn)4,5575,2096,0757,2188,359

InvestingCashFlow-79,9305,360-6,668-23,325-47,827AdjRevenues(US$Mn)(addingcustomerdeliveryfees)2,5056,25710,57114,14417,566

ProceedsfromPreferenceshares00-9,840-8,840-8,840FDAdjEBITDAMargins(as%ofGOV)3.9%4.4%4.8%5.1%5.3%

Leasepayments-4,050-4,710-6,768-9,501-11,442

Others84,470-3,710-8,132-10,325-2,349QCaveragemonthlytransactingcustomers(mn)10.222.135.643.047.5

FinancingCashFlow80,420-8,420-24,740-28,666-22,631QCGOV(USD)3,3347,16012,10016,60320,769

NETCASHFLOW3,5703,3002,86700QCGOV(%YoY)