可再生氢推动中国化工行业脱碳（英文）

Renewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisation2AgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaAgoraEnergyChinaandAgoraIndustry(2026):RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinPublicationdetailsRenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaAuthoraffiliationWenboZhaowenbo.zhao@AuthorsPhilipHorster(formerlyAgoraEnergyChina)AcknowledgmentsWewouldliketothankLeandroJanke,MatthiasFrankPeter,AlexandraSteinhardt,AnjaWerner,IsadoraWangandYiranJinfortheirhelpfulcommentsandsupport.AgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina3Dearreader,AsChinaundergoesstructuraleconomictransformationandrapidlydeploysrenewableenergy,mostcarbon-intensiveindustrialsectorshavebeguntoenteradownwardemissiontrajectory.Thechemicalindustry,however,remainsacriticalexception,continuingtogrowitscarbonfootprintevenasbroaderindustrialemissionsdecline.Atthesametime,therapiddecarbonisationofpowerandtransportisredirectingcoal-dominatedfossilfuelsintotheindustrialsector,sustaininginvestmentmomentumincoalchemicalcapacityatamomentwhenthebroaderenergytransitiondemandsareversal.Thisexpansionisunfoldingamidcyclicaleconomicheadwinds,astructuralshiftintheenergysystemandtighteningcarbonemissionconstraints.Navigatingthesechallengeswillrequiredecisiveactiontotransformthechemicalindustry.Inthiscontext,therapiddevelopmentofrenewablehydrogen–coupledwiththe15thFive-YearPlan(2026-2030),whichidentifiesthehydrogeneconomyasastrategicfuturegrowthdriver–presentsahistoricopportunitytoacceleratethischange.ThisreportdemonstratesthepotentialofrenewablehydrogenasadecisiveleverfordecarbonisingChinaIschemicalindustry.Itassessestheemissionreductionpotentialofsubstitutingfossil-basedhydrogenacrosskeychemicalproductionprocesses,examinesthecostcompetitivenessofrenewablehydrogenanditsderivativesandtrackstheprogressofChinaIsrenewablehydrogenprojectpipeline.Onthisbasis,thereportofferstargetedpolicyrecommendationsdesignedtoacceleratethedeploymentofrenewablehydrogenandrealiseitsfulldecarbonisationpotentialintheChinesechemicalindustry.Wehopeyoufinditinsightful.JuliaMetzDirector,AgoraIndustryAgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina4→KeyfindingsScalingrenewablehydrogeninChinaIsemission-intensivechemicalsectover610milliontonnesofcarbonannuallycomparedto2022,whilereducingexposuretooilandgasmarketvolatility.Thiswouldrequiretechnologicalupgradingandastructuralshiftinproduction,withthelargestabatementopportunitieslyinginsubstitutingfossil-basedwithrenewablehydrogeninoilrefiningandinnew,heavilyinvestedcoal-basedchemicalindustries,includingammoniaandmethanol.2Closingthetemporarycostincreaseofrenewableproduction–thegreenpremium–throughtargeted,feedstock-specificstrategiesiskeytoscalingrenewablechemicalsinthenearterm.Currentcostgapsvary:fromnonetoUSD360pertonneforammonia,andfromaroundUSD230toUSD610pertonneformethanol,withtheuseofdirectlycapturedcarbondrivinghighercostsinthelatterpathway.Renewableammoniaisthereforeclosertoparity,whilebiomethanolandbio-e-methanolcanbecomecost-competitivewhereaffordablesustainablebiomassisavailable.3Establishingreliabledemandthroughstrongpolicysignalsiscriticaltosusgreenhydrogen,ammoniaandmethanol.ProjectpipelinesinChinaindicateaslowdownininvestmentsfrom2027,signallingfragilemarketconfidencewithoutadurablepolicyframework.Mandatorysourcingquotasforrenewable-basedchemicalsandtightenedcarbonintensityrulesacrossthesupplychaincanproviderevenuevisibilityandanchordemand.Inparallel,clearergreenstandardsandcarbontaxonomieswouldreducesupplieruncertaintyandcreateleadmarketsforearlydeployment.4GreenhydrogenisakeypillarofChinaIs15thFindustrialcompetitivenessandenergysystemtransformation.Itsinclusion,alongsideadedicatednationalhydrogenfund,signalsstrongerstatebackingforbuildingascaledhydrogeneconomyandassociatedsupplychains.Withinthisframework,greenhydrogenisalsoanimportantleverforreducingdependenceonfossilimportsandacceleratingtheshiftawayfromhigh-carboncoal-to-chemicalpathways.Sustainednationalcoordinationwillbecriticaltoscaleprojects,connectrenewable-richregionswithindustrialhubsandtranslatepolicymomentumintostructuralsubstitutionofpollutingcoal-basedchemicalproduction,particularlygiventheshort-termandfragmentednatureofcurrentprovincialsupportschemes.AgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina5TableofContentsExecutivesummary91TheroleofrenewablehydrogeninthedecarbonisationofChina’schemicalindustry111.2CarbonemissionsfromChina’schemicalindustry1.3Theroleofhydrogeninthetransitiontogreenchemicals13 1.4Emissionsreductionpotentialofrenewablehydrogen15 2Productioncostsforrenewablehydrogen,ammoniaandmethanolinChina192.2EstimatesforLCOA(Levelisedcostofammonia)2.3EstimatesforLCOM(Levelisedcostofmethanol)3Projectdataanalysis3.1Deepdiveintogreenchemicalsprojectsi3.2Fromgreytogreen:regionalshiftsofproductioncentres294Policyreview4.3Policycomparison395Outlook:RecommendationsforactionBibliography43AgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina6TotalenergysupplyinChinabyenergycarrier()EnergysupplytothechemicalindustryinChina()ProcessandenergyrelatedemissionsbychemicalproductionImpactofrenewablehydrogensubstitutiononCOemissionsreductionacrosschemicalproductsCarbonintensitiesofvariousammoniaandmethanolproductionmethodsCostsensitivenessatmid-scenarioLCOAestimatesfromvariousmethodologiesLCOMestimatesfromvariousmethodologiesProductioncostsofbiomethanolandbio-e-methanolinChinaGreenhydrogenprojectsbyprojectstageandenduseGreenhydrogenprojectsbyannouncedcommissioningyearandendusePercentageofgreenhydrogenprojectsinconstructionorreachedFIDestimatedbycommissiondateandenduseCapacityshiftinproductionregionsNationalandRegionalHydrogenPoliciesOverviewThreeregionscurrent/targetcapacityandannouncedprojectcountChangeinfundingframeworksforgreenhydrogentechnologyinGermanyHGlobalsdouble-auctionmarketmechanismforthegreenammoniaauctionAgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina7AcronymsBIKBundesförderungIndustrieundKlimaschutzBMBFMinistryofEducationandResearchBMDVMinistryofDigitalInfrastructureandTransportBMUMinistryofEnvironmentBMVIMinistryofTransportandInfrastructureBMWIMinistryofEconomyBMWKMinistryofEconomyandClimateProtection(since2021)CapexCapitalexpenditureCBAMCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanismCHPCombinedheatandpowerCCfDCarboncontractsfordifferencesCCUSCarboncapture,utilisationandstorageCtGCoal-to-CtLCoal-to-Liquid/OilCtOCoal-to-OlefinsEnWGEnergyIndustryLawETSEmissionsTradingSchemeEUEuropeanUnionFIDFinalinvestmentdecisionFLHFullloadhoursIEAInternationalEnergyAgencyIPCEIImportantProjectsofCommonEuropeanInterestKfWKreditanstaltfürWiederaufbauKtpaKilotonsperannumLCOALevelisedcostsofammoniaLCOELevelisedcostsofelectricityLCOHLevelisedcostsofhydrogenLCOMLevelisedcostsofmethanolLCOXLevelisedcostsofvariousfuelsLOHCLiquidOrganicHydrogenCarriersMoUMemorandumofUnderstandingMSWMunicipalsolidwasteMtOMethanol-to-olefinsMtpaMilliontonsperannumNDRCNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionNIPNationalInvestmentProgrammeNBSNationalBureauofStatisticsOPEXOperationalexpenditurePEMPolymerelecgtrolytemembraneelectrolysisPPAPowerpurchaseagreementsPtJProjektträgerJülichPtX-BOAPower-to-Xbusinessopportunityanalyser]AgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina8PVPhotovoltaicPyPSAPythonforPowerSystemAnalysisR&DResearchanddevelopmentREDIIRenewableEnergyDirectiveIIRESRenewableenergysourcesRFNBORenewableliquidandgaseousfuelsofnon-biologicaloriginRMBRenMinBi/ChineseYuanSAFSustainableaviationfuelSNGSyntheticnaturalgas(SNG,alsocoal-to-gas,orCtG)SRCShortrotationcoppiceAgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina9ExecutiveSummary1methanol. ”greenpremiumofgreenammoniaandmethanolinammonia(LCOA)tobebetweenUSD519/tandUSDthegreenpremiumsforrenewableammoniaandAgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaAgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChina1TheroleofrenewablehydrogeninthedecarbonisationofChina’schemicalindustrytherisingdemandforchemicalproducts,drivenbychemicalindustryhighoilpricesandimportdependency.Ofthetotalenergysupplyin2020tothechemicalindustryDespiteChinaIssignificantincreaseincleanenergy(excludingoilrefining),49%-or239milliontonnesofdeployments,coalremainsthelargestsourceincoalequivalent(Mtce)-camedirectlyfromcoalandChinaIsenergymix.Coalaccountedfor58.5%oftotalothercoal-basedproducts.Thisincludesonlythecoalenergysupplyin2022,with3.2billiontonnesofandcoalproductsusedasfeedstockandfuelonsite,coalequivalent(btce)consumed,themostinChinaIsleavingoutindirectcoalconsumptionfromelectricityhistory,accordingtotheNationalBureauofStatistcssupply.Bycontrast,oil-basedproductsandnaturalgasplayonlysmallrolesintheoverallenergysupplytothechemicalindustrywithsharesof11%and16%,InChina,coalisnotonlythekeyenergycarrierforsecuringenergysupplybutalsotheprimaryrespectively.feedstockinthecountryIschemicalindustrytomeetTotalenergysupplyinChinabyenergycarrier(2025)AgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaEnergysupplytothechemicalindustryinChina(2022)Notes:*includescoal-basedproducts**includesoil-basedproducts.ForChina,processheatisincludedinprimaryenergysource.Refineriesandcoal-oroil-basedfeedstockusedinotherusedinothersectorsarenotincluded.Meanwhile,inlightoftheclimatepledgeoftheChinesegovernmentandthestructuraldriversofChinaIseconomy,thechemicalsectorislikelytobecomethenationIsonlymajorcoal-consumingsectorthatstillhaspotentialtogrow(Tu,2024).Inthefirsteightmonthsof2024,coalconsumptionbythechemicalindustrygrewby18%(upfrom9%in2023),contrastingwithdeclinesinthesteelandcementindustriesoverthesameperiod(Myllyvirta,2024).chemicalindustryTheincreasingcoalconsumptionhaspushedthegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsofChinaIschemicalindustrytonewrecords.In2020,thechemicalindustry2accountedfor1.3gigatonnesofcarbondioxideequivalent(GtCO2e)ofdirectprocessandenergyemissions,representingapproximately11%ofthecountryIstotalGHGemissionsof12.12GtCO2e(CGFR,2024;RMI,2022thisregard,itissecondonlytothemetallurgicalindustryintheindustrialsector.Themajorityoftheseemissionsareconcentratedintenchemicalproductionprocesses.Ammonia(200MtCO2e)andmethanol(211MtCO2e)inparticularstandout,astheircombinedproductionemittedaboutonethirdofallchemicalindustryemissionsand3.4%ofChinaIs 2Inthisreport,thechemicalindustryreferstothepetrochemical,thecoal-chemicalandotherchemicalindustries.AgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaProcessandenergyrelatedemissionsbychemicalproductiontotalemissions.Oilrefiningcontributes228Mt,whiletheotherevenchemicalproductionprocesseslistedbelowcontributeanother320Mt.Yetoveralllifecycleemissions,includingindirectupstreamanddownstreamemissions,areevengreaterthanthedirectemissionsfromtheproductionofbasicchemicals(seeAgoraIndustry,2023).Upstreamemissionsincludefugitiveemissionsofmethaneincoalmining,whiledownstreamemissionsare,forexample,end-of-lifeemissionsfromelsewhere.However,duetoalackofunifiedemissionsaccountinginternationally,theseindirectemissionsaredifficulttoestimate.1.3Theroleofhydrogeninthetransi-tiontogreenchemicalsInChinaIschemicalsector,fossilhydrocarbonsstilldominatebothenergyuseandmaterialfeedstocks.Coal,oilandgastogethersupplyover100exajoulesand7%ofgasarestillusedaschemicalfeedstocksratherthanprocessfuels.Thisindicatesthat,whileelectrificationtechnologiescandecarboniseprocessenergy,renewablehydrogenanditsderivatives-suchasammoniaandmethanol-willbeessentialtoreplacethefossil-basedfeedstocksembeddedinchemicalproductsthemselves(Guo,Peng,Tian,&Mauzerall,2023).AgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaInthiscontext,renewableenergy-basedhydrogenisexpectedtoplayanintegralroleindecarbonisingthechemicalindustrybyreplacingfossil-fuel-basedhydrogenasafeedstockinthesupplychains.Inthechemicalsector,hydrogenisprimarilyusedintheproductionprocessofotherchemicals.In2023,ofatotalof35.5MtofhydrogenproducedinChina,ammoniasynthesisprocessesconsumed11.7Mtwhilemethanolproductionused9.6Mt.Oilrefineriesusedafurther8.9Mtandtheproductionofotherchemicals(includingmoderncoalchemicalssuchas2024a).ChinaIshydrogenproductionstandsoutfromtheglobalproductionmixwithitshighrelianceoncoalastheprimaryhydrocarbonfeedstock.ThiscomeswiththeconsequencethatChinaIshydrogen-basedchemicalindustryissignificantlymorecarbon-intensive.Followingisanoverviewofthemainhydrogen-basedchemicalprocesses:AmmoniaAmmoniaisamajorbasicmaterialforthefertiliserandorganicchemicalindustry.In2023,58MtofammoniawereproducedinChina,withabout80%comingfromcoal-basedproduction.Incoal-to-ammoniaproduction,therawcoaliscrushedandsentintoagasifierforgasificationtoproducecoalgascontainingnecessarycomponentssuchas(H2)andCO.Then,variouspurificationmethodsareusedtoobtaincleannitrogen-hydrogenmixedgasthatmeetstherequirementsforammoniasynthesis.MethanolMethanolisusedinfurtherdownstreamchemicalproduction(i.e.,olefins,aceticacids)andfindsitswayintoawiderangeofendproductslikepolyethyleneterephthalate(PET),fabricsandsolvents.In2022,Chinaproduced80Mtofmethanol,85%ofwhichwereproducedbycoal-to-methanolprocesses,9%fromcokeovengasandtheremaining6%fromnaturalgas.Intraditionalcoal-to-methanolprocesses,coalgasificationisutilisedtoprovidecarbonandhydrogenformethanolsynthesis.Asaresult,someofthehydrogenusedisfromthehydrocarbonfeedstock.However,becausethecarbon-to-hydrogenratioofcoalisnotsatisfactoryformethanol,theratioisadjustedviainjectedhydrogen,currentlyfromfossil-basedproduction.Dependingonthequalityofthecoal,30-70%ofthehydrogenmustbeaddedthroughthisprocess.Infuture,eitherthissharecanbereplacedwithrenewablehydrogentolowerthecarbonintensityormethanolproductioncanabandonfossil-basedcarbonfeedstocksandrelatedproductionmethodsentirelybyusingcapturedorbiogeniccarbon,addingrenewablehydrogeninthemethanolsynthesis.OilrefiningRefinedoilproductsaremostlyutilisedinthetransportsectorasfuelsandinthepetrochemicalindustry(i.e.,toproduceplastics).In2022,ChinaIsoilrefiningcapacityreached924Mt,makingChinathelargestpetroleumrefiningcountryglobally(CNPC,2023).Forprocessesusinghydrogen(e.g.,forhydrocracking),fossil-basedhydrocarbonsaretypicallyusedtoproducehydrogen,leadingtocarbonemissions.ModerncoalchemicalsBesidesthetraditionalchemicalprocessesmentionedabove,ChinaIsso-calledmoderncoalchemicalindustryisanothermajorconsumerofhydrogen.Into-ethyleneglycolproductionprocessesreached7.2Mtofoilproducts,6.3bcmofgas,17.3Mtofolefinsand5.5Mtofethyleneglycol(SinopecNews,2024b).Toproducethesefromcoal,synthesisprocessestypicallyinvolvehydrogenationtoincreasethehydrogencontent.Forexample,thecoal-to-liquidprocessesinChinarelyasmuchas85%onindirectliquefaction(i.e.,viaFischer-Tropschprocesses)and15%ondirectliquefactionprocesses,bothofwhichrequireinjectedhydrogen.AgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaGreenhydrogensubstitutionandotherusecasesIntheaforementionedsectorswherecoalisusedsolelyasafeedstockforhydrogenproduction,substitutinggreyhydrogenwithgreenhydrogenwouldsignificantlyreducethecarbonemissions.Whencoalisusedasbothhydrogenandcarbonfeedstock,greenhydrogencouldatleastadjustthecarbon-hydrogenratiointheproductionprocesses.Furthermore,innet-zeroscenarios,greenhydrogencouldbecoupledwithcarboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS)toachievenet-zeroproduction.Besidesbeingusedasafeedstock,renewablehydrogenanditsderivativescouldreplacefossilenergyasfuelforhigh-temperatureindustrialprocessheat.However,thisusageiscontroversialbecausecheaprenewableelectricityhasmadeelectrificationroutesforlow-mediumtemperatureindustrialheatmoreplausible(Zühlsdorfetal.,2019)andmaydosoforhigh-temperatureheattoo(AgoraIndustry,2025).Beyondindustry,renewablehydrogenderivativeslikegreenammoniaandgreenmethanol(inelectro-sustainableaviationfuel,ore-SAF)alsoholddecarbonisationpotentialinlong-haulshippingandaviation(seeAgoraEnergiewendeandAgoraIndustry,2021;Johnsonetal.,2025).Thiswouldtiethesetransportmodesclosertotraditionalusecasesforthesechemicalssuchasthefertiliserindustryanddiversedownstreammethanolenduses.Duetothemid-termscarcityofrenewablehydrogen,itiscrucialtoprioritisetheusecaseswithoutmanyalternatives(i.e.,chemicalfeedstock)andconsiderothertechnologieswheretheycancreatethelargestclimateimpact(seeCapionandSorensen,2025;AgoraIndustry,2025).1.4EmissionsreductionpotentialofrenewablehydrogenAsshownabove,hydrogenproductionandthechemicalindustrygenerallycontributesignificantlytoChinaIscarbonemissions,whichcouldbereducedbyusingrenewablehydrogeninthesupplychains.Thissectionwillanalysewhatabsoluteemissionsreductionscanbeachievedbysubstitutinggreywithgreenhydrogeninexistingchemicalprocessesandthecarbon-intensityreductionspossiblebyswitchingentirelytogreensynthesistechnologies,includingcapturedorbiogeniccarbon.2reductionsfromgreenhydrogensubstitutioninchemicalsectorFirst,weestimatetheabsoluteCO2emissionsreductionsthatcanbeachievedviadirectlysubstitutinggreyhydrogenwithgreenhydrogeninestablishedchemicalprocesses.TheresultsfordifferentchemicalproductionprocessesarelistedinFigure4(seethetechnicaldocumentforthemethodology).ItestimatestheCO2emissionsdirectlyrelatedtogreyandgreenhydrogenuseaswellastheemissionsreductionsthatcanbeachievedinsubstitutionscenariosacrossdifferentchemicalprocesses.Importanttonoteisthattheseemissionsincludemethaneflaring,forexamplefromcoalmining,andgobeyondthedirectprocessandenergy-relatedemissionsreportedaboveforeachentirechemicalproductionprocess(Xin,2023).With2022asthebenchmarkyear,wefindthat,oftheemissionstotalling661.9MtCO2asaresultoftheconsumptionofgreyhydrogeninoilrefiningandtheproductionofammonia,methanol,oilandgas(bothfromcoal-to-xproduction),anamountof609.5MtCO2couldbeavoidedwhenreplacingtheusedgreyhydrogenmixwithrenewablehydrogen.Theemissionsintensityofrenewablehydrogenisdeterminedbythecarbonintensityoftheelectricitythatpowerstheelectrolyser,whichisassumedtobe0.5kilogrammeofCO2eqperkofH2producedinthisreport.(IEA,2023;WorldEconomicForum,2024).Forammonia,replacingthe11.7Mtofgreyhydrogenwithrenewablehydrogenwouldalsosubstantiallycutemissions.Assumingtheaveragehydrogenproductionmix,theswitchentirelytogreenhydrogencanreduceemissionsbyupto228.7MtCO2.AgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaImpactofrenewablehydrogensubstitutiononCO2emissionsreductionacrosschemicalproductsSource:owncalculationbasedonindustrialsourcesemissioniscalculatedfromtheamountofhydrogen(tobe)replacedThehydrogensubstitutioninmethanolproductionisnotasstraightforward.Whenassuminga50%injectionofgreyhydrogenintothemethanolsynthesisprocess,substitutingthiswithrenewablehydrogenwouldreduceemissionsby93.5MtCO2inexistingindustrialprocesses.Usingbiogenicorcapturedcarbonsourcesinsteadoffossil-basedcarboncouldleadtohigheremissionssavings.Fortheoilrefiningsector,weassumearatioofcoal-basedtonaturalgas-basedhydrogenproductionof2:1(Zhu&Feng,2024).Underthisillustrativecase,substitutingthe8.9Mtofgreyhydrogenconsumedin2023withrenewablehydrogenwouldreduceemissionsby163.3MtCO2.Formoderncoalchemicals,weestimatethefollowingresults.InCTOproductionusingatwo-stepprocessbasedoncoal-to-methanolandthenmethanol-to-olefins(MTO)production,basedontheaveragecoalquality,thesubstitutionoftheinjectionhydrogen(50%)inthecoal-basedroutemethanolproductioncanachieveemissionssavingsof40.4MtCO2.Yettheseemissionssavingsarealreadyembeddedinthecalculationformethanol.Forcoal-to-liquidprocesses,emissionsofapproximately22.9MtCO2canbeavoidedwhenusinggreenhydrogen.Lastly,coal-to-gas(CTG)processesforsyntheticnaturalgas(SNG)productioncandecreasetheiremissionsby17MtCO2whensubstitutingwithrenewablehydrogen.Byintroducingrenewablehydrogenintomoderncoal-basedchemicalpathwayswithoutreplacingthecoalgasificationprocessentirely,itispossibletolowertheabsolutecarbonemissionsindownstreamproductsanddecreasetheircarbonintensity.However,aslongasthecarbonsourceforalloftheabovecarbon-basedchemicalprocesses(soexceptammonia)remainsfossil,especiallycoal,thechemicalprocessescontinuetobehighlycarbon-intensive.1.4.2CarbonintensitydifferencesbetweenproductionroutesThissectioncomparesthelifecycleemissions(upstreamemissionsfromequipmentmanufacturingnotincluded)pertonneforammoniaandmethanolofvariousproductionmethodsforthedifferentfossil-basedproductionrouteswiththegreenhydrogenoptionsdiscussedabove.AgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaCarbonintensitiesofvariousammoniaandmethanolproductionmethodsSource:owndatacollection,MethanolInstitute(2022)Notes:*theupperpartofcolumnsindicatetheend-of-lifeemissions(1.38tCO/tmethanol).**biomethanoliscomprisedofamixofbiogenicsources,itincludestheend-of-lifeemissionswhereapplicable(i.e50%MSW)Forammoniaproduction,thecarbonintensitychangesarestraightforward.When100%oftheneededhydrogenisreplacedbygreenhydrogen,theCO2emissionsfallto0.3tonneofCO2pertonneofproduct(tCO2/t).Thus,areductioninthecarbonintensityof4.4tCO2/tfromtheChineseaverageand4.8tCO2/tfromthecoal-basedrouteareachievable.With50%renewablehydrogensubstitution,thecarbonintensitydropsto2.7tCO2/t-1.7tCO2/tlessthantheChineseaverage,andstill0.3tCO2/tlessthanammoniawithnaturalgasashydrogenfeedstock.Inotherwords,whiletheCO2emissionsreductionadvantageofusingonlygreenhydrogenasafeedstockisclear,even50%ofgreenhydrogensubstitutioncouldpushthecarbonintensityofammoniabelowthatofnaturalgas-basedammoniaproduction.Formethanol,thepictureismorecomplicatedaspowertomethanolproductionrequiresacarbonsource,whosesustainabilityalsovaries.Welookatoveralllifecycleemissions,includingcombustion,becauseendproductsfrommethanolareusuallyincineratedattheendoflifeandmethanolisincreasinglyusedasafuelformaritimetransportandasafeedstockforSAFproduction.AgoraEnergyChina—RenewablehydrogenforchemicalsectordecarbonisationinChinaWhensubstitutingintegratedgreyhydrogenwithgreenhydrogeninthecoal-to-methanolprocess,theoverallcarbonintensityisreduced,butmuchlessthanforammoniaproduction.Thisisduetotheoverallhighcarbonintensityofthecoal-to-methanolprocess.Assuming50%ofthegreyhydrogenissubstitutedwithgreenhydrogen(seeFigure4),thecarbonintensityfallsfrom5.94tCO2/tmethanolbyonly1.06tCO2/tto4.88tCO2/t,whichisonly0.32tCO2/tlowerthanthecurrentproductionaverageof5.20tCO2/tmethanolincludingnaturalgasandcokinggas-basedmethanol.Bycontrast,greenmethanolprocesses-usingcapturedCO2asthecarbonsourceandrenewablesastheelectricitysourceforelectrolysis-achievecarbon-intensityvaluesaslowas1.47-1.58tCO2/tmethanolforphotovoltaic(PV)andhydro,respectively.1.38tCO2/tmethanoloftheseareend-of-lifeemissionsfrompreviouslycapturedCO2fromfossilprocesses.Comparedtothecurrentproductionaverage,thiswouldmeananemissionsreductionof3.72tCO2/tmethanolonaverage.Intherareinstancethatendproductsfrommethanolarenotcombustedattheend-of-life,therebyeffectivelyfunctioningasacarbonsink,thecarbonintensitywoulddropto0.09-0.2