乳制品行业2026年行动指南：守住利润空间谋求业务增2026

April2026

AgriculturePractice

Thedairyindustry’s

2026playbook:Protectmargins,pursuegrowth

Oureighthannualdairyexecutivesurvey—expandedtoincludeEurope—showsanindustryfacingintensecostandmarginpressure,evenas

demandgrows.Here’stheleadershipagendafortheyearahead.

byKarlNilssonandLudovicMeilhac

withCoenBoutesteijnandEmmyMoore

Inthefirstfewmonthsof2026,dairyprocessorsacrosstheUnitedStatesandEuropefind

themselvesoperatinginachallengingenvironment—onedefinedbypersistentcostinflation,

laborconstraints,inputvolatility,andrisinguncertaintyaroundtradeandregulation,particularlyinEurope.Atthesametime,supply-siderisksareincreasingasproducerscontendwith

animalhealthissues(suchashighlypathogenicavianinfluenza,NewWorldscrewworm,andbluetongue),alongsideclimate-relateddisruptionandstructuralconstraintsonmilksupplygrowthinseveralEuropeanmarkets.

Yetcoredemandremainsresilient.Consumerscontinuetoprioritizedairyasaprimarysource

ofnutrition,sustaininggrowthinkeycategoriesevenamidamorecautiousmacroeconomic

backdrop.Forexecutives,thesecrosscurrentstranslateintoaclearimperative:protectmarginsandexecutioninthenearterm,whileinvestingselectivelybehinddurablegrowththemes—

mostnotably,protein-ledinnovation.

TheseareamongthefindingsofMcKinsey’seighthannualUSdairysurvey,complemented

thisyearbyexpandedinterviewsandsurveydatafromEuropeandairyexecutives(seesidebar,“Abouttheresearch”).Ourresearchrevealsindustryleaders’topprioritiesandconcerns.Italso

highlightsemergingtrends,includingamorepragmatic

stanceonsustainabilityandadeliberateapproachtodigitalandAIadoption.

Abouttheresearch

Inthefourthquarterof2025,McKinsey,theInterna-tionalDairyFoodsAssociation,andtheEuropean

DairyAssociationjointlysurveyed204executivesinthedairyindustry(116intheUnitedStatesand88in

Europe)andconductedinterviewswith41executives(28intheUnitedStatesand13inEurope).Participantscamefromavarietyofcompanytypes—including

processors,retailers,andpackagingcompanies—andrevenuesizes.Mostparticipatingcompaniesarehead-quarteredintheUnitedStatesandEurope(Denmark,Germany,France,Italy,theNetherlands,Portugal,

Spain,andtheUnitedKingdom);othersarebasedinOceaniaandelsewhereinNorthAmerica.

Surveyquestionsweretailoredtorespondents’areasofexpertise.OnlythoseinC-levelandvicepresident

rolesinstrategyandoperationswereaskedaboutthecompany’sbusinessstrategyandoperations,and

onlythosewithrolesinsustainabilityorenvironmental,

social,andgovernancestrategywereaskedaboutsustainability.

Toquantifyandanalyzedatafromtheinterviews,wecodedkeywordsfrominterviewresponses,groupedthembysubject,andaggregatedtheresults.

Whataredairyexecutives’toppriorities?InbothEuropeandtheUnitedStates,costmanagementandvolumegrowthareamongthetopstrategicpriorities(Exhibit1).USdairyexecutives’prioritiesarebroadly

similartolastyear.TalentishighonUSleaders’agendasbutlessofapriorityinEurope.Sustainability,onthe

otherhand,remainsatoppriorityinEuropebutnotintheUnitedStates.

Costandmargindiscipline

Acrossregions,costinflationandcommodityprice

volatilitycontinuetocompressmarginsandshape

valuechaindecisions.Approximately65percentofUSrespondentsrankcostmanagementamongtheirtop

threepriorities—consistentwith2024(69percent)andupfrom2023(48percent)—reflectingsustained

costincreasesinrawmaterialsandlogistics.Europeanleadersreportsimilarpressure,withroughlyhalf

placingcostamongtheirtopthreepriorities.

Thesecostpressuresareevidentinmarginoutcomes.IntheUnitedStates,nearly70percentofsurveyed

dairycompaniesreportedflatorshrinkingmarginsin2025,upfrom66percentin2024and58percent

in2023.Europeshowsacomparabledynamic,with

57percentreportingflatorshrinkingmarginsin2025(Exhibit2).

Thedairyindustry’s2026playbook:Protectmargins,pursuegrowth2

Thedairyindustry’s2026playbook:Protectmargins,pursuegrowth3

Exhibit1

Costandvolumegrowtharethetopstrategicprioritiesofdairycompanyleaders.

Strategicprioritiesfordairycompanies,1%ofrespondentsselectingastopthreepriority

US(n=116)

80

60

40

20

0

Cost

Europe(n=88)

TalentVolumegrowthPurposeSupplychainDigitaland

analytics

Sustainability

1Question:Whatareyourcompany’stopthreestrategicpriorities?

Source:EDASurvey2025;IDFASurvey2025

McKinsey&Company

Exhibit2

Amajorityofdairycompaniesreportedlatordecliningmarginsin2025.

Changeindairycompanymarginsoverprevious12months,1%ofrespondents

USEurope

Decreased

Nochange

Increased

23

35

42

2023

(n=100)

29

37

34

2024

(n=100)

29

39

32

2025(n=116)

22

35

43

2025(n=88)

1Question:Howhasyourmarginchangedoverthepast12months?

Source:EDASurvey2025;IDFASurvey2025

McKinsey&Company

Thedairyindustry’s2026playbook:Protectmargins,pursuegrowth4

Howaredairyprocessorsrespondingtomarketpressures?Nearly40percentofUSrespondentsreportmakingstrategicoroperationalchanges—mostcommonly,switchingsuppliers(61percent)andrationalizingSKUs(52percent).InEurope,alargershareofleaders(66percent)reporttakingaction,withthemostcommonmovesbeingportfoliorationalization(52percent)andchangesin

thegeographicdistributionofproducts(48percent).

‘Thehighcostsofrawmaterialsandlogistics

havesqueezedourmargins,forcingustolookforefficienciesinotherareasofthebusiness.’

–NorthAmericandairyexecutive

Despitetheseheadwinds,executivesexpectstabilizationinthenearterm.OptimismisstrongerintheUnitedStates,where95percentofrespondentsexpectmarginstoincrease,compared

with76percentinEurope.USconsumerpurchasingtrendssupportthatoutlook:Retailmilksalesrosenearly5percentinvalueinthe12monthsendingAugust2025,andtotalrefrigerateddairysalesincreased15percentinvalueoverthethreeyearsending20241

Revenueandvolumegrowth

Inbothmarkets,

revenueandvolumegrowth

remaintopstrategicpriorities.Approximately

55percentofUSdairyprocessorsrankvolumegrowthamongtheirtoppriorities,consistentwith

2024andupfrom2023(48percent).Volumegrowthexpectationsarereflectedinthe$11billionthatUSprocessorsareinvestinginnewdairymanufacturingcapacity2

InEurope,65percentidentifyvolumegrowthasatoppriority.Europeanleadersaremore

measuredintheiroutlookthantheirUSpeers:Around40percentexpecttheirvolumestoremainflatordecline,comparedwithabout20percentofUSrespondents,potentiallyreflecting

heightenedconcernsaroundsupplyconstraintsandlaborshortages.

‘Consumptionisgoingverywellwithindairy....Ithinkwehaveabrightfuture,althoughproductionacrossEuropeisunlikelytoincrease.’

–Europeandairyexecutive

1JeffGelski,“Acceleratingdairyalternativeinnovation,”FoodBusinessNews,September18,2025;“Innovativecheese,butterandyogurtproductsfuelingdairymarketgrowth,”CoBank,July17,2024.

2“USdairyprocessorsinvestrecord$11billiontoexpandcapacitytomeetsurgingdemandforAmericandairynutrition,”InternationalDairyFoodsAssociation,October2,2025.

Thedairyindustry’s2026playbook:Protectmargins,pursuegrowth5

Revenueexpectationsaremorealignedacrossregions:87percentofUSrespondentsand

84percentofEuropeanrespondentsanticipaterevenueincreasesoverthenextthreeyears.

Consumerdemandsignalssupportthisconfidence.IntheUnitedStates,38percentof

consumersreportactivelyprioritizingmoredairy,and70percentplantoincreaseproteinintake,withdairyproductsamongthemostpreferredproteinsources(41percentforyogurt,cottage

cheese,cheese;38percentformilk)3

Talentpipelines

Talentrepresentsoneofthesharpestpointsofdivergencebetweenregions.IntheUnitedStates,61percentofrespondents(downfrom67percentin2024)citetalentasatopstrategicpriority.

Leadersdescribepersistent

challengesinlaboravailabilityandretentioninmanufacturing

andprocessing,particularlyinfrontline,maintenance,andskilledroles.

‘Evenwithreallycompetitivewageand

benefitstructures...wehaveseriouschallengesfillingthosepositionsandretainingour

currentworkforce.’

–NorthAmericandairyexecutive

USexecutivesnotethattheissuehasevolved.Broadpandemic-eraheadcountgapshavegivenwaytotargetedshortagesofskilledlabor,exacerbatedbyelevatedretirementratesandthin

successionpipelinesforcriticaloperationalroles,suchasplantmanagersand

frontlineleaders

.Inresponse,USproducersarerebuildinglaborpipelinesthroughpartnershipswithcommunityandtechnicalcolleges,expandedinternshipprograms,and

moreintensiveupskillinginitiatives

.

‘Ultimately,therearealotfewerpeoplecomingoutofschoolwhowanttorundairyplants,

whichputsusinatoughspot.’

–NorthAmericandairyexecutive

InEurope,bycontrast,only18percentofrespondentscitetalentasatopstrategicpriorityat

theprocessorlevel—althoughlaborshortagesareamajorconcernwhenitcomestofarm-levelsupplyrisk.

3“Adaptingtothenewconsumer:Insightsandimplicationsfordairy,”InternationalDairyFoodsAssociationDairyForum2026,January2026.

Thedairyindustry’s2026playbook:Protectmargins,pursuegrowth6

Sustainabilityinitiatives

Sentimentonsustainabilityalsodiverges.InEurope,53percentofexecutivesranksustainabilityamongtheirtopthreepriorities,comparedwithonly16percentintheUnitedStates(upslightly

from12percentin2024butstillwellbelow44percentin2023).Acrossbothregions,theframinghasshiftedfrombroad

environmental,social,andgovernance(ESG)

narrativestoanexecution-orientedfocuson

regulatorycompliance

,

emissionsreduction

,andoperationalefficiency.

‘Wehavechangedsomeofoursustainabilitygoalstonarrowdownourfocus.’

–NorthAmericandairyexecutive

‘We’retryingtominimizewaste.Fromabusinessstandpoint,that’sagoodmotivator.’

–NorthAmericandairyexecutive

Othersurveyresultsfurtherhighlightthenarrowingscope.AmongEuropeanexecutives,

86percentcitegreenhousegasreductionormitigationasatopsustainabilitypriority.IntheUnitedStates,58percentdoso(Exhibit3).Bycontrast,fewerthan5percentofrespondentsinbothregions(downfrom18percentofUSexecutivesin2024)rankdiversity,equity,andinclusionamongtheirtopthreeESGpriorities.

Exhibit3

Acrossregions,emissionsreductionistheprimaryfocusofdairycompanies’sustainabilityeforts.

Topissuesinsustainability/ESGstrategyagendafordairycompanies,1%ofrespondentsselectingasatopthreeissue

Europe(n=88)

US(n=116)

Reducingormitigating

Energy

Waterusage

Reducingormitigating

Energy

Packaging

greenhouse

46

46

greenhouse

36

36

gasemissions

gasemissions

86

58

1Question:Whatarethetopthreeissuesinyourcompany’ssustainability/ESGstrategyagenda?

Source:EDASurvey2025;IDFASurvey2025

McKinsey&Company

Thedairyindustry’s2026playbook:Protectmargins,pursuegrowth7

Therearealsodifferencesinwhat’sdrivingsustainabilityeffortsinEuropeandtheUnitedStates.

Europeanexecutivesprimarilycitecustomerrequirements(81percent)andregulatory

requirements(65percent)asthemaindrivers.Bycontrast,themajorityofUSexecutivespointtoalignmentwithcorporatecultureormission(83percent),followedbycustomerrequirements(64percent).

Companiesacrossregionsareincreasinglyfocusedonmoretangibleandpragmaticsustainabilityinitiativesthatemphasizecostsavings,riskreduction,andmeasurability—forexample,methaneemissionsreduction,energyand

waterefficiency

,andlogisticsoptimization.Executivescite

transportation,energyefficiency,and

packagingimprovements

asinitiativestheyplantopursuetoreducegreenhousegasemissions.

‘Peoplemightsaytheywantsustainablefood,

butatthemoment,consumersarenotpreparedtopayforit.’

–Europeandairyexecutive

Consumerdemandremainsalow-rankingcatalystforsustainabilityinvestment,withlessthanoneinfiveEuropeanexecutivescitingitasatopdriverofsustainabilityefforts.Similarly,US

executivesacknowledge

statedconsumerpreferencesforsustainability

butexpressskepticismaboutconsumers’willingnesstopayapremiumforlower-carbonproducts.

Areleaders’concernsconsistentwiththeirpriorities?

USexecutives’topconcernscloselymirrortheirstrategicpriorities,signalingatightlyalignedagenda.Profitability(57percent)andthebroaderdomesticeconomy(50percent)rankasthe

mostpressingissues,directlysupportingtheemphasisoncostdisciplineandmarginmanagement.Concernsaboutcommoditypricevolatility(38percent)andlaborshortages(34percent)reflect

continuedattentiontoinputcostsandworkforcestability,whileconcernsaboutdemandandworkingcapitalunderscoretheemphasison

sustainingrevenuegrowth

.

ThispatternislessevidentinEurope,whereexecutives’mostpressingconcernsdiverge

fromtheirstatedstrategicpriorities.Europeandairyleaderscitesecurityofsupply(45percent)andlaborshortages(37percent)astheirtopconcerns—wellaheadofprofitabilityand

commoditypricevolatility.Thisdisconnectreflectsanoperatingenvironmentinwhichstructuralconstraints—suchasstricterenvironmentalregulations—increasinglyshapewhatisfeasible,

evenasleadersmaintainlong-termambitions.

‘We[intheEuropeanUnion]havealotofriskanduncertaintiesonthesupplyside.’

–Europeandairyexecutive

Thedairyindustry’s2026playbook:Protectmargins,pursuegrowth8

Europeandairyprocessorsviewsupplysecurityandlaboravailabilityasintertwinedchallengesreshapingtheoutlookforthemilkpoolandkeyinputs.Regulatorycomplexityandtighterfinancingarelimitingfarmexpansion,whileshortagesofcriticalinputs,includingwhey,raiseconcerns

thatdemandcouldoutpacesupply.Animalhealthissues(suchasbluetongueandNewWorldscrewworm)andincreasingclimatevolatilityfurtherstrainthesystem.

Anaging

farmingpopulation

compoundsthesepressures.Sixty-fourpercentofexecutivesat

dairyprocessorsexpressconcernaboutthefarmingindustry’sdemographictrendsand

successiongaps.Severalexecutivesnotethatthenumberoffarmersisdecliningfasterthanmilkvolumes—asignalofstructuralfragilitybeneathnear-termproductionstability.Quality-of-life

considerationsandthedemandingnatureofdairyfarming,relativetoeconomicreturns,arealsodiscouragingnewentrants,perpetuatingacycleinwhichlaboravailabilityandsupplysecurity

increasinglyconstraintheindustry’sgrowthpotential.

Whatarethisyear’semergingopportunitiesandtrends?

Twotrendsaremovingtotheforefrontofdairy’sfuture:proteinandAI.Companies’investmentsinprotein-ledproductinnovationandmanufacturingarepositioningthemwellforbothcurrent

andfuturegrowth.Inaddition,manyplayersarebeginningtoembedAIacrosstheirbusinesses,atvaryinglevelsofmaturity.

Proteinasaninnovationandgrowthengine

Proteincouldbecomethecentralgrowthengineforthedairyindustryinbothmarkets.Eighty-

eightpercentofUSdairyexecutivescite

protein

asthemostinfluentialconsumerdemandtrend,faraheadofconvenience,premiumization,orplant-basedalternatives.Marketperformance

reflectsthistrajectory,withWesternEurope’shigh-proteindairysegmentdelivering17percentCAGRbetween2019and20244USpercapitaconsumptionofcottagecheese—aleading

high-proteindairyoffering—grewata6.2percentCAGRbetween2020and20255

‘High-protein,simple-ingredient,functionalfoodsareexplodinginpopularity.’

–Europeandairyexecutive

Executivesincreasinglyviewproteinnotasashort-termmarketinganglebutasalong-term

investmentthesisshapingportfoliostrategyand

capitalallocation

.Acrossbothregions,

companiesareexpandingcapacity,reformulatingexistingproducts,and

rebalancingportfolios

towardhigh-proteinofferings—rangingfromingredientsandready-to-drinkbeveragesto

cottagecheeseandfunctionaldairysnacks.

4DairyProductsandAlternativesinWesternEurope,Euromonitor,February2025.

5McKinseyanalysisbasedondatafromtheUSDepartmentofAgriculture.

Thedairyindustry’s2026playbook:Protectmargins,pursuegrowth9

‘Proteinfortificationiswherethefutureis—and

we’reinvestingaccordingly,becausethat’swhereglobaldemandisaccelerating.’

–NorthAmericandairyexecutive

Thisstrategicorientationistranslatingintoforwardinvestmentdespitesustainedmargin

pressure.IntheUnitedStates,72percentofrespondentsplantoincreaseinvestment

inproductinnovationoverthenextthreetofiveyears,and77percentplantoinvestmoreinmanufacturinginnovation(Exhibit4).Europeanfiguresareslightlylower,at71percent

and58percent,respectively.

UpdatedUSnutritionalguidelinescallingfora50to100percentincreaseinproteinintakefurtherreinforcetheopportunity6Andanemergingnutritionaltrendonthehorizonpairsproteinwith

fiberandprebiotics,reflectedin11percentyear-over-yeargrowthinhigh-fiberpackagingclaims7Formanydairyleaders,proteinhasbecometheprimarylensthroughwhichtheyevaluatefuturegrowthopportunities,innovationroadmaps,andevenupstreameconomics.

Exhibit4

MostUSdairycompaniesplantoinvestmoreinbothproductandmanufacturinginnovation.

ShareofUSdairy

companyrespondentsplanninginvestment

increasesoverthenext3–5years,1%

72

65

Productinnovation

20242025

79

77

Manufacturinginnovation

20242025

1Question:Doesyourcompanyplantoincrease,maintain,ordecreaseinvestmentinproductinnovationandmanufacturinginnovation?Respondentswhoanswered“maintain”or“decrease”notshown(2024,n=100;2025,n=116).

Source:IDFASurvey;IDFAmemberexecutiveinterviews

McKinsey&Company

6DietaryGuidelinesforAmericans,2025–2030,USDepartmentofAgriculture,January2026.

7“Fiberclaimssurgeforfood&beverages,”FoodIngredientsFirst,December1,2024.

Thedairyindustry’s2026playbook:Protectmargins,pursuegrowth10

AI:Deliberateadoption,risingexpectations

Digitalandanalyticscapabilitiesareexpectedtoplayamorecentralroleindairycompanies’

performance,thoughtheyarenotyetamongtoday’stop-tierstrategicpriorities.RoughlyfourinfiveUSdairyexecutivesreport

usingAI

oradvancedanalyticsinsomecapacity—primarilyin

administrativeefficiency,maintenance,planning,andknowledgeretention.

‘Theprogresswe’vemadewithAIsofarinour

pilotsismind-blowing...butwearenotreadytoletitlooseonourplantsyet.’

–NorthAmericandairyexecutive

Near-termprogressislikelytoremainincremental.Morethan70percentdescribetheir

organizationsasbeinginpilotphasesformostAItechnologies,withinitiativessplitprimarilyacrosscommercialapplications(34percent),strategy(32percent),andoperations(24percent).

‘Here’stheproblem,here’stheendstate.Now,howdoIleveragethetechnologytogetthere?’

–NorthAmericandairyexecutive

WhileleadersrecognizethepotentialproductivitygainsfromAI,manyexpectadoptiontoscaleselectivelyratherthanrapidly.Approximately20percentofUSrespondentscite

securityconcerns,

limitedexpertise

,anduncertainROIastheprimarybarrierstobroaderdeployment(Exhibit5).ExecutivesentimentinEuropeisbroadlysimilarbutmorecautious,withleaderstendingtoviewAItechnologiesaspracticalefficiencytoolsratherthan

transformativedifferentiators.

‘We’redeliberateaboutAIbecausetherisks

arereal,buttheproductivitygainsaretoogoodtoignore.’

–NorthAmericandairyexecutive

Thedairyindustry’s2026playbook:Protectmargins,pursuegrowth11

Exhibit5

MostUSdairycompaniesareexploringAI,withsecurityconcernsposingthegreatestbarriertoadoption.

LevelofAIuseinUSdairyindustry,1%ofrespondents(n=116)

Pilotprojects

Commercially

Strategically

Operationally

Notusing

71

34

32

24

15

ShareofrespondentsselectingasgreatestbarriertoAIadoptionattheirorganization,USdairyindustry,2%(n=116)

SecurityLimitedUncertainData

conc