高盛-中国策略：AI+改写格局中国崛起

投资组合策略研究

2026年10月11日|9:20PMHKT

中国策略

AI改写格局：中国崛起(摘要)

刘劲津,CFA|

慕天辉,CFA|

付思,Ph.D.|

AI已改写中国股市格局

自2025年初的“DeepSeek时刻”以来，中国AI相关上市公司通过股价上涨和IPO已创

王主丰,CFA|

造市值近5万亿美元。目前，AI股票在A股和港股总市值中的占比达42%，在总成交额

中的占比达57%。

AI双头垄断格局正在形成

中国一直是全球AI供应链的关键出口国，在部分AI电力和基础设施领域占据约50%的

全球市场份额。但随着国内AI技术的进步，中国已逐步建立起一条内循环的AI价值

链，该价值链同样涵盖先进半导体、（开放权重）大语言模型和应用层，并可能与以

美国为核心的AI生态体系展开竞争。

中国的两条AI投资主线

我们研究范围内的中国AI股票包含1,700多家上市公司，其中360多家公司的海外收入

占比超过40%，它们是海外AI资本支出热潮的代表。另一方面，逾880家公司主要面向

国内市场，合计总市值达3.2万亿美元。中国国内AI资本开支和应用需求快速增长，政

策层面对推动科技自主自强的支持力度也较大。

把握中国股票中的AI投资机会

（1）尽管地缘政治和贸易政策风险仍需关注，我们依然看好中国AI出口龙头，其增长

前景与估值之间具有较好的性价比，筛选名单包含20家公司；（2）精选中国本土AI领

军企业。随着本土AI生态体系不断建设，这些公司具有稀缺性价值，并可提供分散化

投资收益，筛选名单包含20家公司；（3）分散化策略：我们更新后的中国精选AI投资

组合包含50只股票，覆盖整个AI供应链的五大关键层级。

*全文翻译随后提供

投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅

/research/hedge.html。

GoldmanSachs

中国策略

AnAIduopolyinthemaking

ThenarrativeofaglobalAIduopolyisgainingtractionamonginvestors—two

dominantandself-sustainedAIecosystemsintheworld,onesponsoredbythe

USandbyitskeytradingpartners,andtheotherbyChina—forgeopolitical,

geo-strategic,nationalsecurity,andgrowthreasons.

InPart2ofthisAIChangesTheGameseries,weintroducedaglobalAIequity

universewhichcomprises6000+listedcompaniesthatarefundamentallylinked

toAIdemandoradjacenttothebroaderAIthemebasedonthedefinitionof

RBICS(seeexplanationbelow).Thesecompaniescanbeorganizedintofour

broadgeographicregionsandfivekeyAI-relatedcohorts.Inaggregate,theyadd

uptoUS$75tninmarketcapitalization(US$63tnscaledbytheirAIrevenues),

around50%oftheworld’stotal.

Inthisuniverse,ChineseAIcompaniesamounttoUS$7.6tnofmarketvalue

acrosstheonshoreandoffshoremarketsperourestimate(weightedbytheirAI

businessexposures;US$10tnonfullmarketcap),accountingforabout10%in

termsofmarketcapandearningsglobally,14%bycapitalexpenditures,and

24%byrevenues.

Leveragingitsstrongmanufacturingcapabilityandcostcompetitiveness,China

hasbeenapivotalexportertoselectglobalAIsupplychains,notablyrareearth

production/refining,powerequipment,PCB,opticaltransceiver,and

mature-nodesemiconductor,allrepresentingover50%ofglobalmarketsharein

theirrespectivesegments.

ButasAItechnologydevelopsandevolvesdomestically,Chinahasgradually

builtaninternally-circulated,increasinglyself-sufficientAIecosystemthatspans

acrosscertain“chokepoints”inthevaluechainthatwerehistorically

dominatedbytheWest,inparticularadvancedsemiandmemorychips,semi

packagingtechniques,open-weight/sourceLLMs,tokenproductionand

consumption,andphysicalAIusecases.

Theso-calledDeepSeekandKimimomentsforChineseLLMsare

well-telegraphed,butbreakthroughshavebeenalsomadeinotherfoundational

technologydomains,namelyadvancedsemipackagingandcomputing(e.g.Tau

ScalingLawandpotentialcommercializationofDUV),biologicalengineering,

andaerospace(See图表4).

Acrossthe29AI-relatedsegmentsperourcategorizationmethodology,Chinese

companies’presencecanbefoundinall,withtheir2026revenueshares

worldwidebasedonFactSetconsensusrangingfrom10%fortheSemicohortto

over50%forselectPowerandInfrasub-industries.

Importantly,thetechnologygapsbetweenChinaandtheWestseemtobe

narrowing.WhileChinacouldbeafewgenerationsbehindfrontiertechnologies

insemiconductorsaccordingtopublicsources,Chinaisprobablyonparwith,or

evenleading,itsglobalcompetitorsincertainPower,Infra,Model,and(physical)

AIapplicationsegments.

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中国策略

But,achievingfullAIself-sufficiencystillappearsalongandchallengingjourney

forChina,inourview,consideringthat:(1)thesignificantmarketcap,

profitability,andproductpricingdifferentials,andtheresultingfinancingand

investmentcapacityforfuturegrowth,betweenthelistedUSandChineseAI

firms;(2)specificbottlenecksinthelocalsupplychaincouldhinderthe

expansionofthetechnologicalfrontieroftheChineseecosystem;and,(3)AI

technologyismultiplicativeinnature—onegenerationgapinseveral

componentsofthesupplychaincouldresultinmorethanonegenerationlagin

aggregatecomputepoweroutput/efficiency.

图表1:ChinaisapivotalsuppliertotheglobalAIvaluechain,representing+50%ofglobalmarketshareincertain

AI-relatedsegments

China'sglobalmarketshare(intermsofrevenue/productionoutput)

Solarpanelproduction88%

Batteryproduction80%

Transformerproductioncapacity60%

Batterystoragecapacity50%

Electricityoutput30%

Nuclearpowergeneration5%

Rareearthrefining90%

Newcapacityoffoundries77%

SPEsales37%

Foundrycapacity(mainlymature-node)25%

ICdesignsales13%

Memory12%

PCB/CCLproduction60%

Opticalmodulesales60%

Datacentercapacity25%

Datacentercooling9%

Tokenusage77%

Tokenspending22%

Humanoidrobotsshipments(1H26)97%

Smartphoneproduction82%

EVproduction75%

Innovativedrugs(clinicaltrials)50%

E-commercerevenue45%

Autonomousdrivingcarsandtrucks31%

Gamingrevenue25%

AutoADASrevenue14%

LEOsatelliteinstallation6%Note:Basedonavailabledataasof2025or1H2026.

0%20%40%60%80%100%

资料来源：GrandViewResearch,SCMP,ChinaDaily,BBC,NYTimes,GlobalTimes,高盛全球投资研究部

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中国策略

图表2:ThenarrativeofaglobalAIduopolyisgainingtractionamonginvestors

资料来源：FactSet,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

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图表3:TheUSandNorthAsiantechcompaniesareleadingintheSemiandModelcohorts,butChinaAIopportunitiesseembetterpopulatedinPower,

Infrastructure,andPhysicalAI

资料来源：FactSet,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

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图表4:TechnologybreakthroughshavebeenmadeinmanyfoundationaltechnologydomainsinChina

资料来源：公司数据,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

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图表5:Chinaisstilllagginggloballeading-edgetechnologiesinmanypartsoftheAIsupplychain,buthasexcelledin

certainareas,suchaspowertransmission,PCBproduction,andphysicalAI

资料来源：百度,Google,路透,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

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图表6:ThemarketcapandprofitabilitydifferentialsbetweentheChineseandUSAIvaluechainsremainsignificant

MAINLANDCHINARESTOFWORLD

26ENet26Capex/26R&D/26ENet26Capex/26R&D/

MktCap26EROEMktCap26EROE

MarginSalesSalesMarginSalesSales

(USDtn)(%)(%)(%)(%)(USDtn)(%)(%)(%)(%)

Power1.47121533.71015123

Semiconductors2.6162416721.036391310

Infrastructure1.1821832.91424146

AIModels0.3<0<023871.9<0<011146

AIApplications2.410139927.626251310

Aggregate7.6121612555.124291510

MetricsareweighedbyAI-adjustedmktcap.

资料来源：FactSet,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

图表7:AIcapexandR&DspendingarerisinginChina,butatmuchsmallerscalecomparedwithitsglobalcompetitors

ChinavsRoWAIInvestment,2026E–2028E

Note:^HyperscalercapexisbasedonGS

2,500ChinaRoW+8%estimates.ChinahyperscalersareAlibaba,

+28%Tencent,ByteDanceandBaidu.RoW

hyperscalersincludeAmazon(AWS),

2,149Microsoft,Alphabet(Google),Metaand

1,993Oracle.AIuniversecapexandAIR&Dare

2,000basedonconsensusestimatesandwere

adjustedbasedoncompanyAIexposure.

+12%Onlycompanieswithall26-28Econsensus

1,561estimatesareincluded.RoWisthesumofUS

1,500+52%1,397andOthers.%numbersinboxesindicate

yoygrowth.

1,2421,220

1,070

1,000898+14%

818+12%

+3%_4%

+14%+19%

500+24%+16%

251

243240188

119147167143167

0

26E27E28E26E27E28E26E27E28E

HyperscalerCapex^AIuniverseCapexAIuniverseR&D

资料来源：FactSet,IBES,高盛全球投资研究部

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FactSetRevereBusinessIndustryClassificationSystem(RBICS)andGSsectoralAIexposure

estimates

RBICSisamulti-sectorclassificationframeworkdesignedtorevealacompany’struesector

exposuresbyanalyzingitsprimaryandancillaryrevenuestreams.

Inessence,itnormalizesnon-standardizedbusinesssegmentreports,mappingcompanies’segment

revenuestogranularsectors.TheRBICSmatrixstructureconsistsof12anchorsectors,6levelsof

depth,andover1,800individualsectorgroupsatthemostgranularsectorlevel.Thisresultsina

quantifiedmulti-sectorparticipationtreeforeachcompany,enablingeasycomparison,screening,

andgrouping.

Thisrevenue-basedapproachmakesRBICSaneffectivetoolinprovidinghighvisibilityintoa

company’sbusinessoperations,andenablinginvestorstoscreenforfirmswithspecificrevenue

exposuretospecificAI-relatedactivities.

WeapplytheRBICSframeworkonallChineselistedcompanies(~7,000),amongwhich,weidentify

3,170namesthatspreadacross249RBICSsub-industriesthataredirectlyrelatedoradjacenttothe

extendedAIvaluechainperGStop-downandbottom-upassumptions.

图表8:Ourtop-downandbottom-upassumptionsonsectoralAIrevenueexposures

MajorAIindustriesAIadjustedratiobyRBICSLevel6Sub-industry

(ratio=100%)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

VolatileMemoryChips

ElectronicMaterials

Front-EndProcessingEquip

SemiconductorFoundries

ServerComputerSystems

…

AssemblySvcs

MobileGames

OnlineAdsSvcs

MobileAppSoftware

Internet&OnlineSvcs

OperatingSystemSoftware

AlternativeEnergyVehicles

Business&PersonalSystems

EnterpriseTechConsulting

Industry-SpecificITSvcs

OnlineDepartmentStores

OnlineGamingPlatforms

ElectronicPayments

EntertainmentContent

…

MinorAIindustries(ratio<100%)

资料来源：FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部

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图表9:TherevenueexposurestoAIvarysignificantly图表10:Forinstance,perRBICS’definition,AI

acrosssectorsinChinabusinessesrepresent~30%ofAlibaba’stotalrevenue

100%AIRevenueExposure25A(AllChinaUniverse)

Alibaba.sRevenueSplitbyRBlCSSub.lndustry

90%87%

100%

80%Note:BasedonRBICSAI-relatedrevenue

exposureofourAllChinaUniverseasof90%

70%23%AIProductivity

61%57%2025.Numbersinbracketsdenotethe80%Software

60%numberofcompaniesineachsector.

47%70%

50%43%14%

40%60%

24%50%

30%22%Internetand

16%

20%16%13%40%OnlineServices

11%11%

--8%30%63%

10%5%5%5%4%3%

0%20%23%

10%

1%Internet

0%6%DepartmentStores

lAggregateAIadjusted

Note:BasedonRBICSsub-industryrevenueexposure;inter-segmenteliminationsarenot

accountedfor.InternetDepartmentStores&InternetandOnlineServices(e.g.,e-commerce,

delivery,etc.)areclassifiedasminorAI-related,soonly10%oftheirrevenueiscountedasAI-

related.

资料来源：FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部资料来源：FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部

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TwoAIstoriesinChina

WithinthebroadChineseAIequityuniverse(3,000+namesinfull,1,700+

companieswithoverUS$100mnmarketcap),besidesorganizingstocksintothe

5AIlayers,theycanbebucketedintotwomaingroupsaccordingtotheir

revenuedriversgeographically.

Thefirstgroup,whichcontains360+listedstockswithanaggregatetotalmarket

capofUS$1.7tn,isexport-orientedAIfirmswhichgeneratemorethan40%of

theirrevenuesabroad.Thematically,theymostlyresideintheAIInfraandPower

segmentsandareoftenregardedbyinvestorsasproxiesfortheAIcapexboomin

theWest.

Attheotherendofthespectrum,wehaveidentified880+nameswithatotal

marketcapitalizationofUS$3.2tnthatprimarilyservethedomesticChinese

market(<10%ofrevenueoverseas)whereAIcapexbyChinese

hyperscalers/CSPshasalsorisensignificantly,AIapplicationdemandanduse

caseshaveblossomed,andpolicycommitmenttopromoteAIself-sufficiency

appearsstrong.

ChineseAIexportershadposted126%returnsfromearly2025toJune2026,

outpacingtheirdomestic-orientedpeersby84pp,mostlyledbytheirsuperior

earningsdeliveryandgrowthprospects.But,amidtheglobalAIselloffsincelate

June,theyhavelost23%fromtheirrecentpeak,reversingtheiroutperformance

byaround10ppvs.thedomesticAIfirmswhichhavehelduprelativelywellsince

theearly-Summercorrection.

Ourtop-downreturnanalysisshowsthatChineseAIexportershaveexhibited

higherreturnbetatotheglobalAIequitybetathantheirdomesticpeers,and

-

havebeenmorelinkedwithgeopolitics(proxiedbyourUS-ChinaRelations

Barometer).ThedomesticAIcompanies,however,aremoresensitivetoChinese

AIcapextrendandAIpolicymomentum(atext-basedbarometer)withinChina,

potentiallyofferingdiversificationbenefitstointernationalinvestors.