高盛-中国策略：AI改写格局：中国崛起（摘要）-China Strategy AI Changes The Game-20261011

投资组合策略研究2026年10月11日|9:20PMHKT中国策略造市值近5万亿美元。目前，AI股票在A股和港股总市值中的占比达42%,在总成交额中的占比达57%。高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司AI双头垄断格局正在形成中国一直是全球AI供应链的关键出口国，在部分AI电力和基础设施领域占据约50%的全球市场份额。但随着国内AI技术的进步，中国已逐步建立起一条内循环的AI价值链，该价值链同样涵盖先进半导体、(开放权重)大语言模型和应用层，并可能与以美国为核心的Al生态体系展开竞争。我们研究范围内的中国AI股票包含1,700多家上市公司，其中360多家公司的海外收入占比超过40%,它们是海外AI资本支出热潮的代表。另一方面，逾880家公司主要面向国内市场，合计总市值达3.2万亿美元。中国国内AI资本开支和应用需求快速增长，政策层面对推动科技自主自强的支持力度也较大。(1)尽管地缘政治和贸易政策风险仍需关注，我们依然看好中国AI出口龙头，其增长前景与估值之间具有较好的性价比，筛选名单包含20家公司；(2)精选中国本土AI领军企业。随着本土Al生态体系不断建设，这些公司具有稀缺性价值，并可提供分散化投资收益，筛选名单包含20家公司；(3)分散化策略：我们更新后的中国精选AI投资*全文翻译随后提供投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅/research/hedge.hBatteryproductionAIApplicationsInfrastructureSemiconductorsPowerAIApplicationsInfrastructureSemiconductorsPowerBatterystoragecapacityElectricityoutputNuclearpowergeneration Foundrycapacity(mainlymature-node)25% AI AI Datacentercooling9% Smartphoneproduction8 Innovativedrugs(clinicaltrials) LEOsatelliteinstallation60%20%40%60%汉中核集团companies,rankedbytotalmarketca2026年10月11日42026年10月11日Note:UniversealsoincludeprivatecompaniesinAlmodellayerandwetaketheirreportedvaluationastheircontributiontotheSelectedChinatechnologydeveloInfra:HuaweiCloudMatrbridgesfrontier-levelreagenticperformancewithunprecbridgesfrontier-levelreagenticperformancewithunprecAlApplication:Tencent'sandByteDworkplace,autonomouslyexecutviralinstallation28Jun26world'sfirstapprovedbispeciout-licensing-US$110bninenteredcommercialopePhysicalAl:Unitree'Super图表5:Chinaisstilllagginggloballeading-edgetechnologiesinmanypMitsubishi).LargeUHVAC/DCnetwork;equLong-distancegrids(345-765AIDCspairedwithsolar,hydro,Analog+mature-nodeEDA;advanmagnets;mature-nodemateriAscend910C-class+MLFP4(GB300NVL72).IGBT/SiCforEV/industri▲High-volumemultilFirst400G/laneDSPsWorld's2nd-largestcapacity;laCompetitivereasoning/mAdvancedhumanoids;commercPremiumdevices+proprietarycreusability).Largeshort-videoplat▲PremiumglobalstreamAlimaging+drugdiscoDomesticacceleratorstack;2026年10月11日72026年10月11日MAINLANDCHINARESTOFWORLDMktCap26ENetMargin26EROE26Capex/Sales26R&D/SalesMktCap26ENetMargin26EROE26Capex/Sales26R&D/SalesPowerSemiconductorsInfrastructureAIModelsAIApplications733.732.624721.03639821832.92460.32387462.49927.62625Aggregate7.6555.124292,149+52%yoygrowth.1,070+12%+24%2401192,5002,0001,5001,0005000HyperscalerCapex^ +14%+28%+12%+8%1,3971,2421,9931,561818898243251167147188143167+16%+19%+14%−4%+3%资料来源：FactSet,IBES,高盛全MajorAIindustriesAIadjustedratiobyRBICSLevel6Sub-industry(ratio=100%)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%VolatileMemoryChipsElectronicMaterialsFront-EndProcessingEquipServerComputerSystemsAssemblySvcsMobileGamesOnlineAdsSvcsMobileAppSoftwareInternet&OnlineSvcsOperatingSystemSoftwareAlternativeEnergyVehiclesBusiness&PersonalSystemsEnterpriseTechConsultingIndustry-SpecificITSvcsOnlineDepartmentStoresOnlineGamingPlatformsElectronicPaymentsEntertainmentContent…MinorAIindustries(ratio<100%)Note:BasedonRBICSsub-industryNote:BasedonRBICSsub-industryrevenueexposure;inter-segmenteliminationsarenotaccountedfor.InternetDepartmentStores&InternetandOnlineServices(e.g.,e-commerce,delivery,etc.)areclassifiedasminorAI-related,soonly10%oftheirrevenueiscountedasAI-related.100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%Alibaba'sRevenueSplitbyRBICSSub-Industry23%14%63%23%6%AggregateAIadjustedAIProductivitySoftwareInternetandOnlineServicesInternetDepartmentStores AIRevenueExposure25A(AllChinaUniverse)87% rlIa-rinoe50%40%30%20%0%100%90%80%70%60%47%43%24%22%61%57%ExporterHybridDomesticAIChinaAI#ofstocks3671,9158883170Marketcap($bn)1,7232,6083,2377568performanceYTDperformance(%)12.5Past3yearsreturn(%)151.2(16.5)25.319.3Fundamentals26EROE(%)191417162Q26netmargin(%)8.27.716.310.122-25EPSCAGR(%)5.8(2.8)2.625-28EEPSCAGR(%)80.026.042.639.0Avg26/27EEPSrevision(%)22.1(2.7)(8.1)1.8Valuation27EP/E(x)26x22x37x26x27EP/B(x)4.2x3.0x4.3x3.6x1.0x0.8x1.2x1.0xNote(1):Metricsarecohort-aggregatedandweightedbyAI-adjustedmarketcap.()indicatenegative(2)Greenareamarkthecohortthatscreensbestoneachmetric—highestgrowth/returnsQ中核集团龙源电力国电南瑞中天科质y中国电信中国电信中际旭创中际旭创润泽科技发展有限公司华丰HUAFENG2026年10月11日132026年10月11日14Z-Note:RelativeperformancebyAIlayeriscalculatedrelativetotheaggregateChinaequityuniverseperformanceandrebasedtofiguresarederivedfroChinaandconsensusestimatFiguresinparenthesesindi0图表14:图表14:Alexportershaveledtheird—AlexportervsDomesweighted)oftheconstituentsDomesticAloutperformedAIrecentpeak60图表16:ExportersseemareasonableproxyfortheAlcapexDomesticAlindexlevelvsChina图表17:BroadlyChineseAlexportersaremorelinkedwithexternalAlfactors,whiledomesticRelativereturnsofExportersandDomestiDomesticAImorecorrelatedwith...AIExportermorecorrelatedwith…Fs资料来源：Factset,万得，国家统计局，DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestm60%50%40%30%20%10%0%ChinarevenuesharegloballybyAIlayer/aggregatePowerSemiconductors InfrastructureChina(All)AIApplication201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026E2027E8070605040302002928272525246.73.951ChinaAIUniverseExportLeaders2928272525246.73.951636925-28ESPSCAGR(%)Overseassales(%)26EP/E(x)26EP/B(x)26EROE(%)225-28ESPSCAGR(%)Overseassales(%)2026年10月11日图表20:ChineseAlExportLeaders'valuations7020图表22:OurChineseAlExportLeadersscreencomprises20namesacross12Al-relatedindustriesRatingsaref2026年10月11日172)DomesticChineseAIChampionspastcoupleofyears,“AI+”hasbeepolicydocuments,notabUS$3-4tnby2030,equivalentto28%CAGRoverthenext4years.Comparedwithpolicyactionsthatweretakeninprevioustargeted,industry-specificeasingepisodes,thesupportfromthegovernmentthistimearoundonAI/Techisarguablymoreexpansive,coveringnotonlythesupplyside(ernment-ledinvestments),butalsodemand-orientedmeasuresandvaluationpremiumsovertheirglobalpeers.Assuch,overpayingforgrowth(certainty)andhighpolicypremiumcouldbethekeyriskstoconswhenengaginginthistheme.InourDomesticChineseAIChampionslist,wescreenfor20GSThislisttradeson23xfPEon33%EPSCAGRonconsensusestimates,weightedbymarketcapandcappedat15%topreventlarge-capdominance.Onaverage,theyderivemorethan90%oftheirsalesfromthedomesticmarket,andarefairly图表23:ThetotalTAMfor21Al-orientedindustriescouldadduptoUSS3-4tn(by2030E)perGSsectoranalysts'es40002000资料来源：高盛全球投资研究部2026年10月11日2026年10月11日2026ultra-longspecialsovereignbonds:RMB800bnofRMB1.3tnallocatedtothe“TwoMajors”;secondtrancheexplicitlyincludesAIPolicyfinanceRMB500bnofnewpolicy-financingtools;about40%directedthroughCDB/EXIMtothedigitaleconomyandAISemiconductorfundsBigFundIII:RMB344bnfocusedonadvancedpackaging,equipment,andAIchipsStateindustrialfundsNationalAIIndustryInvestmentFund:RMB60bnVenturecapitalStateVCGuidanceFund:RMB100bninitialfunding,targetingaboutRMB1tnover20yearsLocalgovernmentfundsWuhan:RMB260bnmemorypackage;Shenzhen:RMB10bnAIandroboticsfundRegionalinvestmentBeijing,Shanghai,andShenzhenaccountforabout71%ofnationalAIinvestment;Hangzhousupportsthe“SixLittleDragons”IndustrialplanningMIIT/NDRCembodied-intelligenceplan:RMB45bnand50,000unitsby2028R&Dsupport15thFive-YearPlan:R&Dgrowthabove7%annually,reachingabout3%ofGDPby2030RegulatoryeasingAlgorithmfilingshortenedfromabout2–4monthsto30days;exemptionsforlow-riskmodelsDeploymentstandardsAI-agentguidelinesstandardizedeployment“AIPlus”StateCouncilinitiativepromotesAIadoptionacrossindustriesandpublicConsumeradoption“AIvouchers”supportR&D;SASACSOEspilotembodied-AIapplicationsFifthlistingstandardexpandedtoAIlargemodels,quantumcomputing,andbrain-computerinterfacesListingrequirementsNoprofitabilitytest;RMB4bnminimummarketcapitalizationplusstatetechnologyapprovalFasterapprovalsGreenreviewchannelreducestheinquirycyclefrom60to35workingdaysZhipuAIandMiniMaxamongthefirstqualifiedapplicants;ChiNextintroducesaparallelrouteMarketliquidityCSI300andCSIA500expansion,lowerfees,andbroaderETF/REITaccessInvestorbaseDeeperHongKong–mainlandregulatorycooperationandsimplermainlandlistingsforHongKong-listedcompaniesNewscount:(k)AIPolicySupportBarometer11109876543210Feb-22Aug-22Feb-23Aug-23Feb-24Aug-24Feb-25Aug-25Feb-26AugFeb-22Aug-22Feb-23Aug-23Feb-24Aug-24Feb-25Aug-25Feb-26Aug-2610.610.6Index24022020080DomesticChineseAIChampionsfPEG(x)(cap-weightedwithsinglestockweightcapat15%)Performance12mfPEG-RHS0.7x0.6Dec-24Feb-25Apr-25Jun-25Aug-25Oct-25Dec-25Feb-26Apr-26Jun-26Aug-26资料来源：万得,FactSet,IBES80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26ChinaAIExporters^PowerInfrastructureAIApplicationJan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26ChinaAIExporters^PowerInfrastructureAIApplicationChina(All)Semiconductors-RHS26%-12%-20%-34%-45%^Basedonsectorneutralapproach237%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%DomesticChineseAIChampions(cap-weightedwithsinglestockweightcapat15%)LLM&CoolingAutonomousDrivingDataCenterMaterials Materials6%ICDesign15%FoundryICDesign15%E-commerce15%15%Memory15%Entertainment&Media15%Either>0forcompanies>todifferentiatingAlfirmsbytheirsourceofdemand/revenuegeogPart4ofthisseries,wADRs,includingdual-listedwholeAlvaluechain,domes(power,semiconductors,infrastructure)andbuthas2026年10月11日21100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%GSChinaSelectAImkt100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%InfoTech60.6%Industrials9.3%SemiconductorsSemiconductors35.9%Power8.2%Infrastructure21.2% AI.AIApplication33.6%HealthHealthCare2.7%ConDisc11.4%CommServ16.0%AILayerAILayerIndex(rebasedto100)GSChinaSelectIndex(rebasedto100)Jan-25Feb-25AprJan-25Feb-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26May-26Jun-26Jul-26Aug-26Oldportfoliosharperatio(fullperiod):2.23MXCNsharperatio(fullperiod):0.74资料来源：Factset,高盛全球投资研究部2026年10月11日23图表32:OurrefreshedChinaSelectAIPortfolioTickerNameTickerNameApplicationInfrastructuresemiconductors3WeichaiPowerDataCenter14ApplicationInfrastructuresemiconductors3WeichaiPowerDataCenter14日8BB85776BBB621%BBNEmpyreanTechnologyBBBBBNVictoryTechnologyPBB74BYingliuElectromechanicalDataCeKstarScienceandDataC4CATLPowerGeneraBSieyuanElectricGridB8NBHuaSemiconducB6BCXMTBGigaDeviceSemiconductorMemor8日NAURATechnologyBNNEnvicoolTechnologyCoolBLuxsharePrecisionDaB3BTFCOpticalCommunicationOpticalTransceiveBFoxconnIndustriallnternetS---B--9BAlibabaBTencentAI7BAsymchemLaboratoriesHealthcare209BHesaiGroupAutonomousDriving342-BLenovoConsumerHaBSanhuaIntelligentContrBLingyiiTechHuBNote:Pricesasofsep25,2026;Totallistedmorketcapincludellistings(A+H+ADR);26E/27EP/EratiosarebasedonGSforecasts.GSRoti图表33:Newadditionsandrem600885CGHongfaTechnology688800CGRecodealInterconnec600183CGShe9903HKIluvatarCoreXS688123CGGiantecSem688200CGHuafengTest&CGDSUQ/9698HKGDSHoldingsDataVNETUWVNETGroupData002008CSHan'sLaserTech002475CS/2475HKLuxsharePrecisionD300442CSRangeIntelligentComputkcUS/3896HKKingsoftCloudxPEVUN/9868HKXpengAutonomousDriving9660HKHorizonRoboticsAutoPONYUW/2026HKPonyAlAutonomousDriving922HKLenovo300124CGInovanceTec002600CG/1688HKLingy1024HKKuaishouChinaAIuniversetotalmarketcapsince20249876549876543Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Jul-25Oct-25Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Jul-25Oct-25Jan-26Apr-26Jul-26(2.8tn)DeepSeekMomentPricegains(US$tn)GlobalAImktcapti454050 ChinaUS4050 27.7(64%) (117%)ChatGPT 13.6MomentDeepseek15.3 (58%)8.3Moment(24%) 6.3(27%)(35%)7.6 (12%) 3.7(16%)4.0(17%)Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26Note:PercentagesindicateconstituentweightingswithintheglobalAI26EEarnings26ESales26ECapexShare%inGlobalAIuniverse64%64%55%43%53%55%24%37%33%30%33%24%8%0%20%40%60%80%10ChinaUnitedStatesOthers80%60%40%20%0%MktcapattributabletoAIbusinessTherestofthemktcap66%57%48%29%20%80%60%40%20%0%MktcapattributabletoAIbusinessTherestofthemktcap66%57%48%29%20%80%20242026-ytd20242026-ytd20242026-ytdTurnoverFundraisingMktcapNote:ThefundraisingmetricreflectsthemarketvalueofnewlylistedAI-themedcompaniesasapercentageofallIPOsacrossFY2024or2026YTD,usingperiodaveragesforbothturnoverandmarketcapitalization.EPSinteger(rebased)40002026E2027EAI23-28EEPSCAGR16%Note:26-28Ebasedonconsensusestimates.Note:26-28EbasedonconsensusUS$10bnAIAI23-28EEPSCAGR4%80%80%WgtinWgtinGSglobalAIuniverse^MFallocationtotechMFallocationtotechbymarket^^adjustedforcompanies'AIrevenueexposure40%20%(JP+KR+TW)5.8%5.8%WeightinW2026年10月11日25图表40:ThebroadChineseAlAutonomousDriving2026年10月11日26图表41:Wemapmorethan6,000Alcompaniesgloballyonto29industriesunder5thematiclayers,therebyformingourAl1313123AIPlatform&我们，刘劲津,CFA、慕天辉,CFA、付思,Ph.D.、王主丰,CFA，在此申明，本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了我们的个人看法，没有受到公司业务或本报告首页所列作者为高盛全球投资研究部分析师，除非另有说明。本报告披露的“贡献作者”为高盛全球投资研究部分析师，除非另有说明。交易本报告中提到的投资组合能否进行取决于交易期间的市场条件，包括流动性和融券限制。本报告中使用的所有MSCI数据归MSCI独家所有。没有MSCI的事先书面授权，此信息以及其它MSCI产权不得以任何形式进行重新复制或再次发布，或用于创建任何金融工具或产品或任何指数。此信息以“按现状”的基础提供，此信息的使用者需承担自己使用该信息的全部风险。MSCI、其任何关联机构或其他任何参与计算或编制数据或与此有关的第三方，均未对此信息（或对利用此信息可取得的结果）何关联机构和其他所有第三方在此明确表示，不对任何信息给予对原创性、准确性、及时性、无侵权行为、完整性、适销性和对某种用途的适用性的任何默示保证。在不对上述任何事项进行限制的前提下，MSCI、其任何关联机构或其他任何参与计算或编制数据或与此有关的第三方，在任何情况下，即使获悉有可能发生任何直接的、间接的、特别的、惩罚性的、后续的或其他任何损害赔偿（包括损失的利润），均不对此类损害赔偿承担任何责任。MSCI司的一个服务标识，已授权给高盛集团使用。本报告中使用的第三方品牌标识属于其各自所有者的财产，在此仅作参考使用。对这些品牌标识的使用不应被视为由或为高盛或其产品/服务提供的支根据政府第13959号行政令（修订后），美国针对部分中国企业发出禁令，禁止美国个人投资于相关企业发行的证券。本研究报告并非也不应被视为建议投资者从事违反美国制裁法的证券交易活动。任何本报告中研究企业所需的特定公司法定披露见上文：包括即将进行交易的承销商或副承销商，1%或其他股权，特定服务的补偿，客户关系种类，之前担任承销商或副承销商的公开发行，担任董事，担任注册做市商。高盛担任或可能担任本报告中所涉及发行方的债券（或相关衍生品）的交易对手。以下为额外要求的披露：股权及重大利益冲突:高盛的政策为禁止其分析师、分析师属下专业人员及其家庭成员持有分析师负责研究的任何公司的证券。分析师薪酬:分析师薪酬部分取决于高盛的盈利，其中包括投资银行的收入。分析师担任高级职员或董事:高盛的政策通常禁止其分析师、分析师属下人员及其家庭成员担任分析师负责研究的任何公司的高级职员、董事或顾问。非美国分析师:非美国分析师可能与高盛无关联，因此可以不受FINRA条FINRA2242条对于与所研究公司的交流、公开露面及交以下为除了根据美国法律法规规定作出的上述信息披露之外其他司法管辖区法律所要求的披露。澳大利亚:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd及其构不是澳大利亚经授权的存款机构（1959年《银行法》所定义），因此不在澳大利亚