房地产 - 2026年第三季度中国房地产市场报告 China Figures Q3 2026

CBRE

FIGURES|CHINA|Q32026

Officenetabsorptionhitshighesttotalinalmostfiveyears;logisticsleasingaccelerates

+4.6%+1.1%-7.2%

GDPRetailSalesFixedAssetInvestment

(Q1-Q32026,Y-0-Y)(Q1-Q32026,Y-0-Y)(Q1-Q32026,Y-0-Y)

Source:NationalMunicipalStatisticsBureau,CBREResearch,October2026

FIGURE1:QuickStatistics

Office

q-0-q

y-t-d

y-o-y

Rent

-1.9%

-6.0%

-8.2%

VacancyRate

+0.0pps.

+0.3pps.

+0.7pps

Retail

q-0-q

y-t-d

y-o-y

Rent

-0.5%

-1.3%

-1.9%

VacancyRate

+0.1pps.

+0.0pps.

+0.0pps.

Logistics

q-0-q

y-t-d

y-o-y

Rent

-4.1%

-8.3%

-10.9%

VacancyRate

-1.1pps

-1.3pps

-1.7pps

Investment

q-0-q

y-t-dtotal,y-o-y

y-0-y

Totalvolume¹

-62.2%

-1.8%

-46.9%

ExecutiveSummary

-Office:Nationwidenetabsorptionrose45%q-0-qand66%y-0-yto820,000sq.m.,thehighestsingle-quartertotalsinceQ42021,with85%contributedbyShenzhen,Shanghai,Beijingand

Hangzhou.Newsupplyreached1.07millionsq.m.,adeclineof19%y-0-y.Vacancyheldflatq-0-qat25.0%.Thenationwideaveragerentalindexfell1.9%q-0-q,bringingthey-t-ddeclineto6%,2.3pps.narrowerthanayearearlier.

-Retail:Newnationwideretailpropertysupplytotalled720,000sq.m.inQ32026,flatq-0-q.Netabsorptionfell17%q-0-qto620,000sq.m.asshoppingmallscontinuedrepositioningandsomenewprojectsopenedbelowexpectedoccupancy.Nationwidevacancyheldat7.5%atquarter

end.Shoppingmallground-floorrentsfell0.5%q-0-q,withthey-t-ddeclinestandingat1.3%,0.5pps.widerthanayearearlier.

-Logistics:Nationwidenetabsorptionreached2.63millionsq.m.inQ32026,up24%y-0-y,with3PLtenantsaccountingfor45%ofnewleasingvolume.Newsupplytotalled1.88millionsq.m.,over1.0millionsq.m.ofwhichwaslocatedinSouthChina.Thenationalaveragevacancyratefell

1.1ppsq-0-qto17.4%,whilethenationalrentalindexdeclined4.1%q-0-q.

Note1:TransactionsincludedealsaboveUSS10millionintheoffice,retail,mixed,industrial,hotelandothercommercialsectors

Source:CBREResearch,Q32026.

-Investment:Atotalof102transactionsworthRMB32.1billionwerecompletednationwideinQ32026,adropof62%q-0-qand47%y-o-y,amidalackoflargeportfoliotransactions.Logisticscontinuedtodriveneweconomyassetinvestment.Shanghaicoreofficeinvestmentrebounded,withthecitycontributing83%ofnationalofficetransactionvolume.

CBRERESEARCH◎2026CBRE,INC.

FIGURESICHINA|Q32026

CBRERESEARCH◎2026CBRE,INC.

Economy

China'sGDPgrew4.6%y-0-yinthefirstthreequartersof2026,inlinewithofficialtargets.

GrowthinQ32026acceleratedto4.5%y-o-yand1.2%q-0-qasmomentumshiftedtowardneweconomicdriversandthestructuralmixcontinuedtoimprove.

TotaltradeingoodsapproachedRMB40trillioninQ32026,rising18.8%y-0-yandcontinuingtoaccelerateq-0-q.Single-quarterexportssurpassedRMB8trillionforthefirsttime,up22%y-o-y.Sustainedexportstrengthispropellingeconomicgrowth,withtheexportmix

acceleratingitsupgradingtowardintelligentandgreenproducts.Equipmentmanufacturingcontributednearly90%ofexportgrowththisquarter,whileintegratedcircuitexportsjumped99.1%y-0-y.Exportsofelectricvehicles,lithiumbatteries,andwindturbinegeneratorsandpartsgrew72.3%,36.4%and22.4%,respectively,overtheperiod.

Retailsalesofconsumergoodsrose1.1%y-0-yinSeptember,accelerating0.7pps.from

August.Growthforthefirstthreequartersoftheyearalsostoodat1.1%,however,indicatingstill-subduedgoodsconsumption.Servicesretailsalesgrew5.0%inthefirstthreequarters,wellaheadofthe1.0%riseingoodsretailsales,ashouseholdspendingcontinuedtoshiftfromacquiringgoodstowardpurchasingexperiencesandservices.Retailsalesofmobile

communicationdevicesslowedbutremainedthetopupgrade-typecategory,whilecosmeticsandapparelpostedmoderategrowththatwasneverthelessstillfasterthanin2025.

FIGURE2:ChinaGDPGrowth(%,Y-o-Y)

10%

9%

8%

6.3%

6%

5%

7%

4.8%

3.9%

4.5%

5.2%5.3%5.4%5.4%5.2%

4.9%4.7%4.6%4.8%

4.5%

5.0%

2.9%

4%

3%

2%

1%

2022Q1

2022Q2

2022Q3

2022Q4

2023Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2023Q4

2024Q1

2025Q1

2025Q3

202504

026Q1

2026Q2

2026Q3

0.4%

0%

2024Q2

2024Q3

2024Q4

Q2

2025

Source:NationalStatisticsBureau,Q32026.

Investmentremainedunderpressure,withnationwidefixedassetinvestmentfalling7.2%y-o-yinthefirstthreequarters,draggeddownbyweakerrealestatedevelopmentinvestment,

whichdeclined20.6%.Themanufacturinginvestmenttiltedfurthertowardhigh-endandintelligentsegments:high-techindustryinvestmentrose4.9%y-o-y,ledbyinformationservicesat20.2%,followedbyaerospaceequipmentandelectronicsandcommunicationequipmentmanufacturingat12.5%and7.6%,respectively.

FIGURESICHINA|Q32026

CBRERESEARCH◎2026CBRE,INC.

Theresidentialsectorremainedinaphaseofdeepadjustment,thoughsignalsofstabilizationemergedonthepricefront.NewhomepricesforSeptemberintierIcitiesrose0.1%m-o-m

andsecond-handhomepricesedgedup0.2%m-0-m,whilem-0-mdeclinesintierIlandⅢcitiesgenerallynarrowed.

TheQ32026executivemeetingoftheStateCouncilofthePeople'sRepublicofChina

culminatedwithanannouncementthatabatchofpracticalandeffectiveincrementalpolicieswouldberolledout.ThePeople'sBankofChina's(PBoC)packageofstructuralmonetary

policytoolsandtheMinistryofFinance'sRMB550billioninremaininglocalgovernmentdebt

quotabothlandedattheendofSeptember,whilepoliciestostabiliseinvestmentandexpanddomesticdemandareexpectedtocontinuegainingtractioninQ42026,supportingamarginal

pickupineconomicmomentum.

FIGURE3:ReserveRequirementRatio(RRR)and1-yearLoanPrimeRate(LPR)

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Mar-25

May-25

Jul-25

Sep-25

Nov-25

Jan-26

Mar-26

May-26

Ju-26

Sep-26

……RRR(Largefinancialinstitutions,LHS)—1-YearLPR(RHS)—5-YearLPR(RHS)

5.0%

11.5%

4.5%

11.0%

10.5%

10.0%

9.5%

3.0%

9.0%

8.5%

8.0%

4.0%

3.5%

2.0%

12.0%

2.5%

Source:PBoC,CBREResearch,Q32026.

FIGURESICHINA|Q32026

CBRERESEARCH◎2026CBRE,INC.

Office

NetAbsorptionVacancyRent

+66%y-0-y+0.7pps.y-0-y-8.2%y-0-y

Techandadvancedmanufacturingleaddemand;netabsorptionhitshighestlevel

sinceQ42021

NewofficesupplyinthetenmajorcitiesCBREtracksnationwidereached1.07millionsq.m.inQ32026,down19%y-o-y.Supplyinthefirstthreequarterstotalled2.76millionsq.m.,adeclineof16%y-0-y.Netabsorptionrose45%q-0-qand66%y-0-yto820,000sq.m.,thehighestsingle-quartertotalsinceQ42021,with85%contributedbyShenzhen,Shanghai,BeijingandHangzhou,the

country'sfourleadingtechclustercities.Nationwidenetabsorptioninthefirstthreequartersreached1.91millionsq.m.,up13%y-0-y.

Vacancystoodat25%atquarterend,flatq-0-q,withvacancyinsevenofthetencitiesstableorimprovingq-0-q.Thenationwideaveragerentalindexfell1.9%q-0-q,continuingtonarrowfromthedeclineseeninQ22026,bringingthedropseenoverthefirstthreequartersto6%,2.3pps.smallerthanayearearlier.

Incrementaldemandrises;robotics-relatedleasingdealssetnewrecord

Newofficeleasingvolumewasflatq-0-qbutrose10%y-0-yinQ32026.Newset-upandexpansiontransactionsgrew26%and50%y-0-y,respectively,liftingmomentumofincrementaldemand.

FIGURE4:ChinaOfficeNewSupply,NetAbsorptionandVacancyRate

NetAbsorption(LHS)—VacancyRate(RHS)

10,000

NewSupply(LHS)

30%

Thousandssq.m.

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

0%

2016

2026YTD

Source:CBREResearch,Q32026.

FIGURE5:VacancyRateandDevelopmentPipeline

Thousandssq.m.

Shanghai

Guangzhou

Shenzhen

Wuhan

Chengdu

Beijing

Hangzhou

Suzhou

Nanjing

Tianjin

■DevelopmentPipelineof2026-2028◆CurrentVacancyRate(Q32026)

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

3,500

FIGURESICHINA|Q32026

CBRERESEARCH◎2026CBRE,INC.

TMTcontributed26%ofnewleasedareathisquarter.Roboticsdemandsurged,withnew

leasedareaup274%q-0-qand27xy-0-y,surpassingthepreviousrecordanddrivingariseinupstreamchipandsemiconductorandsoftwareandsystemsdevelopmentleasingvolumeby75%and22%q-0-q,respectively,anddownstreamindustrialgoodsmanufacturingby167%q-0-q.Duringthequarter,largeleasingdealsweresignedinBeijingZhongguancun,ShenzhenHigh-techParkandHouhai,ShanghaiXuhuiRiversideandQiantan,GuangzhouPazhou,and

HangzhouFutureSci-TechCityandQianjiangCenturyCity.

Financerankednextwith15%ofleasingvolume.Securitiessectornewleasingjumped152%q-0-qand102%y-0-y,withBeijingandShanghaiaccountingfor60%ofleasedarea.

FIGURE6:ProportionofLeasedOfficeSpacebyIndustry²

TMT

Finance

IndustrialManufacturing

BusinessService

ConsumerProducts

ConsumerServicesandEducation

RealEstateandConstruction

Others

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%

Note2:Officeleasingtransactionsincludenewsetup,expansion,relocationandupgradng.

Source:CBREResearch,Q32026

FIGURE7:ChinaOfficeRentalIndex³

RebalancedRentalIndex(Q1201O=100)

2010Q1

011Q1

2012Q1

2013Q1

2014Q1

2015Q1

2016Q1

2017Q1

2018Q1

2019Q1

2020Q1

2021Q1

022Q1

2023Q1

2024Q1

2025Q1

026Q1

OverallTierIlcities

175

150

125

100

75

50

200

Source:CBREResearch,Q32026

FIGURESICHINA|Q32026

CBRERESEARCH◎2026CBRE,INC.

Retail

NetAbsorptionVacancy

+11%y-0-y0.0ppsy-0-y-1.9%y-0-y

FIGURE8:ChinaRetailNewSupply,NetAbsorptionandVacancyRate

Marketcharacterisedbyweakerleasingmomentumandongoingrepositioning

Newnationwideretailpropertysupplyrecorded720,000sq.m.inQ32026,flatq-0-q.Net

absorptionfell17%q-0-qto620,000sq.m.,largelyduetorepositioningexercisesunderwayatshoppingmallsandseveralnewprojectsopeningbelowexpectedoccupancy.

Nationwidevacancyheldat7.5%atquarterend.Shoppingmallground-floorrentsfell0.5%q-0-q,withthedeclineforthefirstthreequartersreaching1.3%,0.5pps.widerthanayearearlier.

F&Bremainstopdemanddriver;outdoor,sportsandtechtoybrandsexpandaggressively

F&Baccountedfor40%ofnewstoreopeningsinQ32026,maintainingitsstatusastheleadingdriverofleasingdemand.Chineseregionalcuisineandcoffeeandteashopstogetheraccountedfor60%ofF&Bexpansion,withLiRuotao,ChayanYueseetc.openingnewstoresinmultiple

cities.

Thousandsq.m.

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

YTD

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

NetAbsorption(LHS)VacancyRate(RHS)

NewSupply(LHS)

Source:CBREResearch,Q32026.

FIGURE9:VacancyRateandDevelopmentPipeline

■DevelopmentPipelineof2026-2028◆CurrentVacancyRate(Q32026)

3,00015%

Thousandssq.m.

Shanghai

Guangzhou

Shenzhen

Beijing

Nanjing

Hangzhou

Chengdu

Tianjin

2,000

1,000

0%

Source:CBREResearch,Q32026.

10%

5%

FIGURESICHINA|Q32026

CBRERESEARCH◎2026CBRE,INC.

Intheapparelsegment,outdoorandprofessionalsportsbrandsremainedthemainstays:Aloopenedmultiplenewstores;Arcteryxunveiledatwo-levelcliffhouseconceptstoreatChengduSKP;

SalomontookovertheformerLancomeflagshipatBeijingWangfujingAPM;andNikeSKIMSopeneditsfirstofflineexperiencespaceinChinaatShanghaiHKRITaikooHui.

IPtoybrandsemergedasakeydriverofmallfootfallandexpansionthisquarter,withPopMart

openingitslargestChinastoreacrossathree-levelunitatHangzhouHubinin77,alongwithregionalflagshipsatChengduIFS,ChangshaIFSandBeijingChaoyangHopsonOne.Alsothisquarter,

MINISOLANDopenedlarge-formatstoresinShanghaiandChengdu,whileDamaiEntertainmentsubsidiaryLuckLoopopenedeightstoresacrosssixcitiesinAugust

3Celectronicsretailersmaintainedtheiractiveleasingpace,withdemandconcentratedinemergingproductcategoriessuchasactioncameras,Alglassesandgaminghardwareandperipherals.

Experientialformats,includingclimbinggymsandbeautyandwellnessservices,completedseveralnewstoreopeningsacrossmultiplecities,emergingasakeysourceofdemandforupper-floorandbasementspace.

FIGURE10:NewStoreOpeningMomentumbyTradeCategory

F&B

Clothing

Entertainment&Toy

Lifestyle

Cosmetics

Jewelry

NEV

Source:CBREResearch,Q32026.

FIGURE11:ChinaShoppingMallGroundFloorRentalIndex⁴

RebalancedRental(IndexQ12003=100)

250

225

200

175

150

125

100

75

2003Q1

50

004Q1

005Q1

LO900Z

2007Q1

2008Q1

011Q1

2012Q1

2013Q1

2014Q1

2015Q1

2016Q1

2017Q1

2018Q1

2019Q1

2020Q1

2021Q1

LOOLOZ

LO600Z

2022Q1

2023Q1

2024Q1

2025Q1

2026Q1

——Overall——Tierlcities——Tierllcities

Note4:Chinashoppingmallgroundfloorrentalindexcalculatedbynationwideshoppingmallaverageaskingrent.

Source:CBREResearch,Q32026.

FIGURESICHINA|Q32026

CBRERESEARCH◎2026CBRE,INC.

Logistics

NetAbsorption

+23.8%y-0-y

-1.7%y-0-y

FIGURE12:ChinaLogisticsNewSupply,NetAbsorptionandVacancyRate

Exportgrowthandretailtransformationdrivedemandexpansionandacceleratedeclineinvacancy

Logisticsnetabsorptionreached2.63millionsq.m.inQ32026,up24%y-o-y.Cumulativenet

absorptionforthefirstthreequartersoftheyeartotaled6.7millionsq.m.,aslightdeclineof4%y-o-yduetothehighbaseeffectfromthepreviousyear.

Drivenbymajore-commercepromotionalevents,3PLsaccountedfor45%ofnewleasingactivitythisquarter,withaportionconsistingofshort-termleases.Theshareofnewleasesfromthemanufacturingsectorexpandedto22%,withemergingindustriessuchasbiopharmaceuticals,roboticstesting,and

communications/electronicsemergingasnewgrowthdriversalongsidetheautomotivesector.TheseindustriesareprimarilyconcentratedinSouthChinaandEastChina.

Newleasingdemandfromretailenterprisescontinuedtogrow.Inadditiontotraditionalfoodchain

operatorsandlargemembership-basedsupermarkets,emergingretailformatssuchasinstantretail,freshsnackbrands,anddiscountsnackretailersareexpandingrapidly,creatingnewdemandfor

modernlogisticsfacilities.Duringthefirstthreequartersof2026,newleasingdemandfromwholesaleandretailcompaniesexceededthetotalforalloflastyear,reachingarecordhighandaccountingfor14%oftotalnewleasingvolume.

Consolidationamongcross-bordere-commerceoperatorsacceleratedoverthequarter,withmorethan500,000sq.m.ofspacevacated,mainlyinGuangzhou-Foshan.However,supportedbythecontinuedexpansionof3PLproviders,manufacturingupgrades,andrelocation-drivendemand,SouthChina

remainedbroadlyresilient,withy-t-dnetabsorptiondecliningbyjust10%y-o-y.

Millionssq.m.

2006

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

YTD

NewSupply(LHS)NetAbsorption(LHS)VacancyRate(RHS)24%

12

20%16%12%8%4%

0%

10

Source:CBREResearch,Q32026.

FIGURE13:LogisticsVacancyRateinMajorCities

Beijing

Dalian

Taicang

Tianjin

Jiaxing

Shanghai

Shenzhen

Guangzhou

Wuxi

Suzhou

Huizhou

Langfang

Dongguan

Shenyang

Changshu

Kunshan

Nanjing

Foshan

Hangzhou

Wuhan

Chengdu

Qingdao

Chongqing

Ningbo

■Q22026■Q32026

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%15%10%

5%

0%

FIGURESICHINAIQ32026

◎2026CBRE,INC.

NewsupplycontinuestoenterSouthChina

Newlogisticssupplytotaled1.88millionsq.m.inQ32026,ofwhichmorethan1millionsq.m.was

deliveredinSouthChina.Guangzhoualoneaccountedfor970,000sq.m.ofnewlycompletedspacethisquarter.

Nationwideaveragevacancydeclinedby1.1pps.q-0-qto17.4%.Ofthedifferentregions,onlySouth

Chinarecordedanincreaseinvacancy.VacancyinEastChinadeclinedbynearly2pps.,whilevacancyinCentralandWesternChinaremainedbelow10%.

Rentaldeclineaccelerates

Thenationallogisticsrentalindexfell4.1%q-0-qinQ32026.TherentaldeclineinEastChinacontinuedtomoderate,narrowingto0.7%q-0-q,whileSouthChinaexperiencedanaccelerateddecline,withrentsfalling10%q-0-q.

FIGURE14:ProportionofLeasedLogisticsSpacebyIndustry

45.6%

22.4%

15.5%

9.4%7.0%

3PLManufacturersRetailers&WholesalesFood&BeverageE-commerceonly

Source:CBREResearch,Q32026.

FIGURE15:ChinaLogisticsRentalIndex

IndexQ42009=100

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

——TierICities——TierIICities

1234

2015

1234

2016

1234

2017

1234

2018

1234

2019

1234

2020

1234

2021

1234

2022

1234

2023

1234

2024

1234

2025

123

2026

Source:CBREResearch,Q32026.

FIGURESICHINA|Q32026

Investment

InvestmentTurnoverInvestmentTurnover-46.9%y-0-y-62.2%q-0-q

Absenceoflargeportfoliotransactionspullsdowninvestmentvolume

Atotalof102transactionswithanaggregatetransactionvalueofRMB32.1billionwere

recordedinQ32026,down62%q-0-qand47%y-0-y.Cumulativetransactionvolumeforthe

firstthreequartersoftheyearreachedRMB178.2billion,representinga12%declinefromthesameperiodlastyear.Corporatebuyersremainedthemostactiveinvestorgroup,accountingfornearly60%oftotaltransactionvolume.InstitutionalinvestorsandrealestatefundstogethercompletedtransactionsworthRMB6.4billion,representing20%oftotalinvestmentvolume.

Logisticscontinuestodriveinvestmentactivityinneweconomyassets;Shanghaiofficeinvestmentrebounds

TransactionvolumeinneweconomyassetstotaledRMB14.1billion,accountingfor44%of

investmentvolume.Ofthistotal,dealsforwarehousingandlogisticsassetscontributedRMB6.4billion,reflectingcontinuedinstitutionalcapitalallocationtologisticsassets.RentalhousingtransactionstotaledRMB1.4billion.NotabledealsincludedCRLandYoucha'sacquisitionof

SuzhouJinlinApartmentandanindividualbuyer'sacquisitionofBaseSanlitunWorkerStadiuminBeijing.

Officetransactions(excludingbusinessparks)reachedRMB12.1billion,accountingfor38%oftotalinvestmentvolume,asignificantincreasefromthepreviousquarter's16%.Capital

remainedhighlyconcentratedintierIcities,withShanghaicontributing83%ofnationalofficeinvestmentvolume,primarilydrivenbythetransactionsofXingyun-1BuildingandDBSBankTower.

FIGURE16:TransactionVolumebyMarket5

RMBbn

Shanghai

Suzhou

Shenzhen

Beijng

■2026Q2

■2026Q3

Chengdu

Hangzhou

Wuhan

Chongqing

Nanjing

Others

10203040

Note5:TransactionsincludedealsaboveUS$10milionintheOffice,Retail,Mixed,Industrial,HotelandOthercommercialsectors.

Source:CBREResearch,RCA,Q32026.

FIGURE17:TransactionVolumebySector⁶

■Office(ExcludedBusinessPark)

RMBbn

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

202004

2021Q1

ZOLZOZ

2021Q3

202104

2022Q1

2022Q2

2022Q3

2022Q4

2023Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2023Q4

2024Q1

2024Q2

2024Q3

2024Q4

2025Q1

2025Q2

2025Q3

202504

2026Q1

2026Q2

2026Q3

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Note6:Neweconomysectorincludeslogistics,businessparks,residentialforincomegenerating.datacentres,coldstorageandselfstorage.

Source:CBREResearch.Q32026.

CBRERESEARCH◎2026CBRE,INC.

10

FIGURESICHINA|Q32026

CBRERESEARCH◎2026CBRE,INC.

EightpubliclyofferedREITsbackedbypropertyownershipassetswereapprovedduringthe

quarter,withaproposedfundraisingamountofRMB12.1billion.Thesecoveredabroaderrangeofassetclassesbeyondindustrialfacilitiesanddatacentres.Sincethelaunchofcommercialreal

estateREITapplicationsubmissionsearlierthisyear,atotalof33REITshavebeenfiled,withan

aggregateproposedfundraisingscaleofRMB102.0billion.FourrealestateprivateREITswere

alsoapprovedduringthequarter,totalingRMB8.8billion.Inaddition,16newprivateREIT

applicationswereaccepted,withaproposedfundraisingamountofapproximatelyRMB25.6billion,indicatingastrongfuturepipeline.

Logisticscapratesintierlcitiesedgedown

AveragecapratesforofficeandretailpropertiesintierIcitiesremainedstableduringthequarter,whileShanghailogisticscapratespeakedandthenbegantodeclineonthebackofimproving

leasingfundamentalsandstrongerinvestmentliquidity.

FIGURE18:TierICitiesAverageNetYields

7.00%

6.50%

6.00%

5.50%

5.00%

4.50%

4.00%

3.50%

3.00%

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Q3

Source:CBREResearch,Q32026

FIGURESICHINA|Q32026

Outlook

OFFICE

CBRE's2026ChinaOfficeOccupierSurveyshowsnetexpansionaryintentionsamongoccupiers

sitataround9%overthenextthreeyears,withmega-andlarge-sizedfirmsexpressingstrongerexpansionintentionsthanSMEs.Firmsinhigh-techsectors,ledbyTMTandadvanced

manufacturing,alongwithmodernserviceindustriessuchassecuritiesandfundsandlawfirms,allsitinnetexpansionterritory.Thisshouldsupportacontinuedrecoveryinofficedemand

through2027.Amidelevatedvacancyandthemorethan5.0millionsq.m.ofnewsupplydueto

comeonstreambeforetheendofnextyear,rentswillremainunderdownwardpressure.However,theaveragefull-yeardeclineisexpectedtonarrowtoaround5%in2027

RETAIL

Around1.5millionsq.m.ofnewshoppingmallsupplyisexpectedtoopennationwideinQ42026.Withongoingrepositioningandbrandconsolidationtakingplaceinexistingprojects,absorptionpressureanddivergenceinperformancebetweenprojectswillwidenfurther.CBREexpectsthe

vacancyratetoedgeuptoaround8%byyearend,withfull-year2026supplyanddemandbroadlyinlinewiththatseenin2025.Limitednear-termimprovementsinconsumerconfidence,combinedwiththesupplysurge,meansrentsareexpectedtocontinuetoedgedown.

LOGISTICS

NewsupplyisexpectedtopeakinQ42026,withapproximately2.8millionsq.m.scheduledfor

completion,stillheavilyconcentratedinSouthChina.Withstrongexportsandongoingretailsector

transformationsettocontinuedrivingdemandformodernlogisticsfacilitiesnationwide,CBREretainsitsforecastfornetabsorptiontoreach8.0-8.5millionsq.m.forthefullyear.Newsupplyisexpectedtodeclinebyapproximately70%y-0-yin2027.RentsinselectedcitiesacrossEastChinaandCentralandWesternChinaarethereforeexpectedtostabiliseandpotentiallyreturntogrowth.

INVESTMENT

Marketenquiriesandinvestmentsentimentcontinuetoimprove,whilepriceexpectationsbetween

buyersandsellersareincreasinglyaligned.Togetherwiththeapproachofthetraditionalperiodfor

dealmaking,previouslydelayedtransactionsareexpectedtograduallyreach