国际可持续发展研究所IISD：2026全球碳边境调节现状报告

©2026InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentPublishedbytheInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentThispublicationislicensedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike4.0InternationalLicense.InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentTheInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment(IISD)isagloballyrecognizedthinktankwith3decadesofexperienceworkingtosolvetheworld’smostpressingsustainabledevelopmentchallenges.Wecombinedeepexpertiseinawiderangeofissueswithacollaborativeapproachtoresearch,policyadvice,andhands-onsupporttoensurethesesolutionsarebroughttolife.HeadquarteredinWinnipeg,Manitoba,weareadiverseteamofover300professionalsworkingfromofficesinCanada,Switzerland,andotherlocationsaroundtheworld.IISD’sheadquartersinWinnipegaresituatedonTreaty1Territory—theancestrallandsoftheAnishinaabe(Ojibwe),Ininiw(Cree),Anisininew(OjibweCree),Dene,andDakotaNations,andthehomelandoftheRedRiverMétisNation.IISDisaregisteredcharitableorganizationinCanadaandhas501(c)(3)statusintheUnitedStates.IISDreceivescoreoperatingsupportfromtheProvinceofManitobaandprojectfundingfromgovernmentsinsideandoutsideCanada,UnitedNationsagencies,foundations,theprivatesector,andindividuals.TheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments2026July2026WrittenbySatishTriplicane(policyadvisor,InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment[IISD]),AaronCosbey(seniorassociate,IISD),IevaBaršauskaitė(Lead,TradeandGreenTransition,IISD),GeorgeRiddell(ManagingDirector,GoyderLtd),andMariaAlejandraGonzalezPinto.Photo:iStockAcknowledgementsTheauthorswouldliketothankAliceTipping,AntoineBonnet,andAntonellaPasetto(ClimateClubSecretariat,OECD)fortheirvaluablecontributionsthroughoutthedevelopmentofthispublication.TheauthorsalsothanktheEuropeanClimateFoundationforitsgeneroussupport.HeadOffice111LombardAvenue,Suite325Winnipeg,ManitobaCanadaR3B0T4TheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments2026TableofContents 1 42.1Context 42.2KeyCharacteristicsandImpacts 7 3.1Context 3.2KeyCharacteristicsandImpacts 4.0Australia’sCarbonLeakageReview 4.1Context 164.2KeyCharacteristicsandImpacts 165.0BCADevelopmentsinOtherCountries 7.0WatchingThisSpace:BCA-relateddiscussions 267.1ISO/GHGProtocol 267.2OECDInclusiveForumonCarbonMitigationApproaches 267.3ClimateClub 7.4UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeTechnicalDialoguesonTradeandClimateChange 7.5IntegratedForumonClimateChangeandTrade 28 29AppendixA.MethodologyUsedforMappingBorderCarbonAdjus 34TheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments2026Figure1.OriginofEUCBAM-coveredgoodstotheEU,2024 8Figure2.ImportsofEUCBAMgoodsasashareoftotalEUimports 10Figure3.OriginofCBAM-coveredgoodstotheUnitedKingdom,2024 Figure4.ImportsofUKCBAMgoodsasashareoftotalBritishimports,2012–2024 15Figure5.OriginofproposedBCA-coveredgoodstoAustralia,2024 Figure6.AustraliantradingpartnersmostimpactedbyitsproposedBCA,intermsoftheshareoftheirexportscoveredbythemechanism,2024 18Figure7.ImportsofAustralia’sproposedBCAgoods,asashareoftotalAustralianimports,2012–2024 18Figure8.Numberofstatements/proposalsconcerningBCAsatWTO,2021–2025 Figure9.DistributionacrosstimeofthetoneofBCA-relatedstatements,2021–2025 22Figure10.Typesofconcernexpressedinofficialstatements,2021–2025 23Table1.KeyfeaturesoftheEU’sCBAM,theUKCBAM,andtheBCAdescribedinAustralia’sCarbonLeakageReview 2Table2.OverviewofEUCBAMregulatoryandcompliancemilestones(Q22026–2028) 6Table3.EUtradingpartnersmostimpactedbyitsCBAM,intermsoftheshareoftheirexportscoveredbythemechanism,2024 9Table4.TheUnitedKingdom’stradingpartnersmostimpactedbyitsCBAM,intermsoftheshareoftheirexportscoveredbythemechanism,2024 14TableA1.TaxonomyofconcernsandassociatedtriggerkeywordsusedforcodingWTOdiscussions 35Box1.TheEU-IndiaFreeTradeAgreement(FTA)andimplicationsforCBAM 7Box2.BCAcostimplicationsforbusinesses 24TheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments2026AbbreviationsandAcronymsBACIBasepourl’AnalyseduCommerceInternationalBCAbordercarbonadjustmentsCBAMCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanismCEPIICentred’ÉtudesProspectivesetd’InformationsInternationalesEEAEuropeanEconomicAreaETSemissionstradingschemeEUEuropeanUnionGHGgreenhousegasIFCCTIntegratedForumonClimateChangeandTradeIFCMAInclusiveForumonCarbonMitigationApproachesIISDInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentLDCleastdevelopedcountriesMRVmonitoring,reporting,andverificationOECDOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentSMEsmallandmedium-sizedenterprisesTESSDTradeandEnvironmentalSustainabilityStructuredDiscussionsUKUnitedKingdomUNFCCCUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeWTOWorldTradeOrganizationTheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments20262025wasayearofrealignmentofdomesticandinternationalpolicies,ascountrieslookedtosafeguardtheireconomicprioritieswhilefindingwaystomaintaintheirclimateambition.Bordercarbonadjustments(BCAs)—mechanismsthatplaceacarbonpriceonimportsfromcountrieswithout(orwithlessstringent)emissionspricingpolicies—haveemergedasoneofthemostprominentsolutions.However,asmorejurisdictionsmovefromdeliberationtoimplementation,BCAsarealsogeneratingsomeofthemostcontentioustradeandclimatediplomacyofthisdecade.TheglobalBCAlandscapehasevolvedsincethepublicationofthefirsteditionofStateofBCAsin2025.TheEuropeanUnion’s(EU’s)CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism(CBAM)entereditsfullcompliancephaseonJanuary1,2026,makingittheworld’sfirstoperationalBCAbasedonanemissionstradingscheme(ETS).TheUnitedKingdom(UK)CBAMisontrackforimplementationin2027.Australia,followingthereleaseofitsfinalCarbonLeakageReviewreportinFebruary2026,willbeconsideringthereport’srecommendationsinthe2026–27reviewoftheSafeguardMechanism.Serbiaalsorolledoutimporttaxesoncarbon-intensiveproductsin2026,whileNorwayisconsideringintroducingitsownBCAfromnextyear.WhilenotpursuingBCAs,countriessuchasBrazil,theRepublicofKorea,Türkiye,andIndiaarepursuingoradvancingdomesticcarbonpricingandemissionsgovernanceframeworks.ThesemeasuresadvancedomesticclimatepolicyandcouldalsohelpgovernmentscaptureemissionsrevenuewhendomesticpaymentsarecreditedunderforeignBCAs.Notably,IndiaalsosignedafreetradeagreementwiththeEUwithauniqueandfirst-everdedicatedannexureonEUCBAM,establishingaframeworkforcooperation,dialogue,andcapacitybuildingforIndianexporters.IntheUnitedStates,legislativeproposalsoncarbonfeeshavecontinued,thoughnonehavebeenenacted.BCAscanvarygreatlyindesign,whichinfluencestheirimpactonboththejurisdictionsthatimplementthemandtheirtradingpartners.ThosekeydesignfeaturesaresummarizedinTable1.Thesedevelopmentshaveledtointensifieddebatesinmultilateralforums.AttheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)andatthe30thUnitedNationsClimateChangeConference(COP30)inBelém,Brazil,discussionsonBCAsandothertrade-relatedclimatemeasureshavegrownmorepointedasmechanismshavemovedfromproposaltoimplementation.Thispublicationmapsthestateofplayacrossallofthesedimensions.ItcoversnationalBCAdevelopmentsintheEU,theUnitedKingdom,andAustralia;tracksongoingdiscussionsinotherjurisdictions;andsurveysthemultilaterallandscapeattheWTOandbeyond.TheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments2026Table1.KeyfeaturesoftheEU’sCBAM,theUKCBAM,andtheBCAdescribedinAustralia’sCarbonLeakageReviewDesignfeatureAustralianBCA*SectoralAluminum,cement,fertilizers,hydrogen,ironandsteel,andelectricity.Aluminum,cement,fertilizers,hydrogen,andironandsteelsectorsstartingfromCementandclinker;Possibleinthefuture:lime,hydrogen,ammoniaandderivatives,steelandiron,aswellasglass.ScopeofScope1(direct)emissionsforallsectors;Scope2(indirect)emissionsforcementandfertilizers.Selectprecursors—upstreamScope3emissionsfromCBAM-coveredgoods.DirectemissionsembodiedinimportedCBAMgoods,includingupstreamScope3emissionsfromCBAM-coveredgoods.Indirectemissionsdelayedatleastuntil2029.Scope1emissionsonly.DefaultvaluesreportingReportingbasedondefaultvaluesisallowed,andvalueshavebeenpublished.From2026,defaultscarryamarkuprisingto30%by2028.Reportingbasedondefaultvaluesisthenormforreportingelectricityemissionsandindirectemissions.Reportingbasedondefaultvaluesisallowed.From2027,asingledefaultvaluesetperproductwillbeapplied.Reportrecommends“suitabledefaultemissionsintensityvalues”alignedtoemerginginternationalstandardswhileminimizingadministrativeburden.CBAMrateCBAMcertificateprice;universalacrossallCBAMsectors.For2026imports,priceisthequarterlyaverageofEUETSclosingpricesforthequarterofimportation.From2027,priceistheweeklyaverageofEUETSauctionclosingprices.Certificatesurrenderphasedinlinewithphase-outoffreeallowancesSetseparatelyforeachCBAMsector;reflectsUKETSprice,withadjustmentforfreeallocationgrantedtoeachsector.Tobeadjustedonaquarterlybasis.Recommendationtocalculateliabilitybyreferenceto(a)emissionsabovetheSafeguardMechanismemissionsintensitybaseline,and(b)thedifferencebetweentheeffectiveexplicitcarbonpriceinthecountryoforiginandtheAustralianbenchmarkprice.DesignfeatureAustralianBCA*Adjustmentforthird-countrycarbonpriceOnlyexplicitcarbonpriceswillberecognized.Onlyexplicitcarbonpriceswillberecognized.Onlyexplicitcarbonpriceswouldberecognized.thresholdforliableimporters50tonnesofimportedproductsperyear.**GBP50,000inimportvalueovera12-monthrollingperiod.NotspecifiedThegeneralbudgetoftheEUandofEUmemberstates.Generalbudget.Channelledtosupportimplementationandindustrialdecarbonizationobjectivesintradepartnerdevelopingcountries.Notes:*AsprovidedinthefinalCarbonLeakageReviewreport(DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater,2024).**ThisdeminimisthresholdispartoftheEuropeanCommission’sOmnibusRegulationofOctober2025.Seehttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=OJ:L_202502083Sources:Bonnet&Baršauskaitė,2025;DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater,2024;EuropeanCommission,2025a,2025b;HMRevenue&Customs&HMTreasury,2026;InternationalCarbonActionPartnership(ICAP),2025a,2026.2.1ContextOnJanuary1,2026,theEUCBAMentereditsdefinitivephase,bringingthe2023–2025transitionalperiodtoanend.Importerswillnowneedtopayfortheemissionsinvolvedintheproductionoftheimportedgood,thecostofwhichwillreflecttheEUETS,minus(a)anadjustmentfactoraccountingforthefreeallocationthatwillstillbeavailableundertheschemeuntiltheircompletephase-out(Bonnet&Baršauskaitė,2025),and(b)adeductionforanyeffectivecarbonpricepaidinathirdcountry.1ImportersbringingCBAM-coveredgoodsintotheEUmustfirstdeclaretheembeddedemissionsoftheirimportsandpaythecorrespondingamountthefollowingSeptember.ThefirstdeclarationandpaymentdeadlinewillbeSeptember30,2027,foremissionsembeddedinimportsduring2026.2Severalsignificantregulatorydevelopmentshaveshapedthemechanismaheadofandsinceitslaunch:•omnibuspackage:InSeptember2025,Regulation(EU)2025/2083,amongotherthings,replacedtheexistinggreenhousegas(GHG)tonnage-baseddeminimisexemptionwitha50-tonnemass-basedannualexemptionthresholdforEUCBAM-coveredimports.Themeasureisexpectedtoexemptapproximately182,000moreimporters,mostlysmallandmedium-sizedenterprises(SMEs),fromEUCBAMobligationsthanthepreviousscheme,whilestillcovering99%ofemissionsinscope(EuropeanCommission,2025b).•implementinganddelegatedacts:InNovemberandDecember2025,theCommissionadoptedasuiteofimplementinganddelegatedactsaddressingkeyoperationalelementsoftheCBAMframework.3Theseincludetheintroductionofcountry-andproduct-specificdefaultemissionvalues,thecalculationoftheadjustmenttobemadetotheEUCBAMchargestoaccountforEUETSfreeallocation,andmethodologiesgoverningthepricingandadministrationofCBAMcertificates.1Article9.1,Regulation(EU)2025/2083oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncilof8October2025amendingRegulation(EU)2023/956asregardssimplifyingandstrengtheningthecarbonborderadjustmentmechanism.2PaymentsforemissionsundertheEUCBAMaremadethroughCBAMcertificates.ACBAMcertificateisacomplianceunitrepresentingaspecifiedamountofembeddedemissionsinimportedgoods.Afterreportingtheembeddedemissionsintheirimports,authorizedimportersmustpurchaseacorrespondingnumberofcertificatesfromthecompetentauthorityintheEUmemberstatewheretheyareregistered.Theymustthensurrenderthesecertificates,meaningsubmitthemtotheauthority,todemonstratecompliancewiththeirCBAMobligations.3Theseincludedactslayingoutthefollowing:methodologiesforthecalculationofembodiedGHGsunderCBAM;principlesforthevalidationofsuchreporting;rulesforaccreditingthoseverifiers;calculationandpublishingofthepriceofCBAMcertificates;informationtobecommunicatedbycustomsauthoritiestotheCommission;calculationoftheadjustmenttobemadetoCBAMliabilitiestoaccountforfreeallocation;country-specificproduct-leveldefaultvaluesforembeddedGHGemissions;andtheestablishmentofaCBAMregistry.Seehttps://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism/cbam-legislation-and-guidance_en.TheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments2026•scopeexpansionandanti-circumventionproposal:TheCommissionpublishedaproposal(EuropeanCommission,2025b)toexpandtheEUCBAMscope4fromJanuary1,2028,tocoverproductsfurtheralongthevaluechainofsteelandaluminumgoodsalreadysubjecttoEUCBAM,inordertoaddressresidualcarbonleakagerisks.Ifapproved,theexpandedCBAMwouldcoveraround180additionalproducts,inparticularsteel-andaluminum-intensivegoods,includingironandsteelarticles,fabricatedmetals,machineryandindustrialequipment,vehiclesandcomponents,andmetalfurniture.TheproposalalsofeaturedmeasurestoaddresscircumventionoftheEUCBAMthroughmisdeclarationandproposedthattheCommissionbegivenflexibilitytoaddress“abusivepractices”(whichwerenotwelldefined).AvoteintheEuropeanParliamentplenaryisexpectedinSeptember2026,whichwillbefollowedbyavoteintheCouncil,andthensubsequentnegotiationsonthefinaltext.•TemporaryDecarbonisationFund:TheCommissionalsopublishedalegislativeproposal5fora2-yearTemporaryDecarbonisationFundtoprovidetargetedfinancialsupporttoenergy-intensiveindustriesintheEUexposedtoanincreasedremainingriskofcarbonleakage.For2028–2029,25%ofCBAMrevenueswouldbeallocatedtotheFund,coveringproductionin2026and2027.AvoteintheEuropeanParliamentplenaryisexpectedinSeptember2026,whichwillbefollowedbyavoteintheCouncil,andthensubsequentnegotiationsonthefinaltext.•third-countrycarbonpricededuction:InMay2026,theCommissionpublishedadraftimplementingact,6coveringthemethodologyfordeductingcarbonpriceseffectivelypaidinthirdcountries—aruleclarifyinghowcarbonpricingmeasuresadoptedoutsidetheEUwillberecognizedundertheEUCBAM.Amongotherthings,theproposalwouldallowforlimiteduseofemissionoffsetsgeneratedunderArticle6.4oftheParisAgreementtobecountedtowardacarbonpriceeffectivelypaidinthecountryofexport.Throughout2027,theCommissionwillreviseandrefinetheEUCBAMbasedonexperienceanddatagatheredduring2026,includingareviewofdefaultvaluesandanassessmentofpotentialCBAMscopeexpansion(Table2).Inparallel,CBAMbenchmarks(usedforcalculationadjustmentstoaccountforfreeallocationundertheEUETS)willbereviewedandupdatedin2026,aligningwiththefinalETSbenchmarksfor2026–2030,withupdatedvaluesapplicabletogoodsimportedfromJanuary1,2027.4TheEUCBAM’sexistingscopecoversiron&steel,aluminum,cement,fertilizers,electricityandhydrogen.5ProposalforaRegulationoftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncilestablishingtheTemporaryDecarbonisationFund,2025.Seehttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52025PC09906Carbonborderadjustmentmechanism(CBAM)–carbonpricepaidinathirdcountry.Seehttps://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/14830-Carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-CBAM-carbon-price-paid-in-a-third-country_enTheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments2026Table2.OverviewofEUCBAMregulatoryandcompliancemilestones(Q22026–2028)2026FirstquarterlyCBAMcarbonpricepublishedMay11UpdatedbenchmarkvaluesforfreeallocationundertheEUETS(expected)May13DraftImplementingRegulationonCarbonPricePaid(callforevidence)July6SecondquarterlyCBAMcarbonpricepublishedSeptember30FirstdatethatCBAMverifierscanrequestaccesstotheCBAMRegistryafterbeingaccreditedOctober5ThirdquarterlyCBAMcarbonpricepublished2027January12027markupfordefaultvaluesstartsat20%(exceptforfertilizers)January4FourthquarterlyCBAMcarbonpricepublished,weeklythereafterin2027February1FirstCBAMCertificatestobemadeavailableforpurchasebyCBAMdeclarantsFirstquarterlydeadlineforCBAMdeclarantstoholdrequiredlevelofcertificatesSeptember30FirstannualCBAMdeclarationduefor2026importsOctober31DeadlinetorequestrepurchaseofexcessCBAMcertificatesCancellationofsurpluscertificatesfor2026CommissionreportonimpactofCBAMoncarbonleakage,includingexportsCommissionreportonrevisiontoCBAMdefaultvaluesandsectormarkups2028January1PotentialexpansionofCBAMtodownstreamproducts2028markupfordefaultvaluesstartsat30%(exceptforfertilizers)Source:Authors’compilationbasedonEuropeanCommissionsources,includingonCBAM,CBAMRegistryandReporting,PriceofCBAMCertificates,andRegulation(EU)2023/956,availableathttps://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en;https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism/cbam-registry-and-reporting_en;https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism/price-cbam-certificates_en;https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A02023andhttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_1044TheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments2026Box1.TheEU-IndiaFreeTradeAgreement(FTA)andimplicationsforCBAMTheEU–IndiaFTA,concludedinJanuary2026,isthefirstFTAtointroduceadedicatedframeworkforcooperationonCBAMinitsAnnex14-A,andislikelytobecomeareferenceforfuturebilateralagreements.Itincludestheprovisionson:•non-discriminationinflexibilities:AnyflexibilitiesinCBAMimplementationprovidedbytheEUtothirdcountriesaretobeextendedonanolessfavourablebasistoIndia•technicaldialogue:IncludingtechnicalexchangesonCBAMimplementation,informationanddataexchangetofacilitatetheestablishmentofdefaultvalues,exploringthepossibilityformutualrecognitionofaccreditationbodiesforCBAMcomplianceverifiers,technicalassistanceonemissionreductionpolicies.•supportforindustrialtransformation:TheEUwillendeavourtosupportIndia’semissionreductionandlong-termindustrialtransformationeffortsthroughthemobilizationoffinancialresourcesandrelatedinvestments—anadditionalmemorandumofunderstandingestablishesadedicatedpartnershipplatform.•cooperation:Partiesalsorecognizetheneedtostrengthenregulatory,economic,andtechnicalcooperationtoadvancegreenhousegasemissionsreductionefforts.2.2KeyCharacteristicsandImpactsAsiancountriesdominatedtheexportsofCBAM-coveredgoodstotheEUin2024,withChinaasthelargestexporter(17%ofthetotalCBAM-coveredgoodsimportsintotheEU),followedbyTürkiye(11%)andIndia(6%).AmongEuropeannations,theUnitedKingdom(8%),theRussianFederation(6%),andUkraine(4%)wereamongthebiggestexporterstotheEU.TheUnitedStates(5%)fromNorthAmerica,Brazil(2%)fromSouthAmerica,andEgypt(3%)fromAfricahadthemostsignificantCBAM-coveredgoodsexportstotheEUfromtheirrespectiveregions(Figure1).TheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments2026Figure1.OriginofEUCBAM-coveredgoodstotheEU,2024ChinaTürkiyeUnitedKingdomIndiaRussianFederationRep.ofKoreaUnitedStatesOtherAsia,nesUkraineVietNamEgyptSerbiaJapanBrazilUnitedArabEmirates CanadaSouthAfricaBahrainMoroccoMozambique16.9%16.9%5.7%4.7%%%11.4%2.8%2.8%2.5%2.2%2.0%1.9%1.8%1.8%1.4%1.4%1.3%0051015AsiaEuropeNorthAmericaSouthAmericaAfricaShareoftotalCBAMimportstotheEU(%)Source:Authors’calculationsbasedonproductnomenclatureestablishedintheCBAMregulation(asamended)(EU,2023)andBasepourl’AnalyseduCommerceInternational(BACI)(Centred’ÉtudesProspectivesetd’InformationsInternationales[CEPII],2026)tradedata.SomecountriesmightbesignificantlymoreexposedtotheEUCBAMthanothers.Whilemostofthehighest-impactedcountriesareintheEU’sneighbourhood,thisisnotauniversalrule.Forexample,Montenegro’sexportstotheEUaccountedfor46%ofitstotalexports,withCBAMgoodsexportstotheEUaccountingfor27%.MostimpactedcountriesalsoincludeAlbania(10%oftotalexports),Ukraine(8%),Serbia(7%),NorthMacedonia(7%),andMoldova(5%),aswellasEgypt(5%)andTürkiye(4%).FormanyoftheEUneighbourcountries,suchasSerbia,NorthMacedonia,andAlbania,thisisprimarilybecauseoftheirelectricityandironandsteelexports.ForMontenegro,itislargelyduetoitselectricityexports;forUkraine,ironandsteel;andforTürkiye,iron,steel,andaluminumexports.However,moredistantcountriescanalsobeexposed:Mozambique’stotalexportstotheEUconstituted14%ofthecountry’soverallexportsin2024,ofwhichexportsofEUCBAMgoodswere8.9%;essentially,exportsfromasinglealuminumsmeltingfacility.Fully7%ofBahrain’sexports(consistingofunwroughtaluminum)in2024wenttotheEUandwouldbeexposedtotheEUCBAM(Table3).ForcountrieswithmorediversifiedexportbasketsTheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments2026andmarkets,theimpactoftheEUCBAMontheiroverallexportperformanceislower.Forexample,Tunisia’stotalexportstotheEUin2024represented70%ofitstotalexports,ofwhichonly2%consistedofCBAM-coveredgoods.Similarly,theUnitedKingdom’stotalexportstotheEUaccountedfor46%ofitstotalexportsduring2024.EUCBAMgoodsaccountedfor2%ofBritishexportstotheEU.Table3.EUtradingpartnersmostimpactedbyitsCBAM,intermsoftheshareoftheirexportscoveredbythemechanism,2024ShareofEUCBAM-coveredexportstotheEUincountry’sglobalexports(%)ShareofexportstotheEU(%)Montenegro26.5%46%Albania74%Mozambique8.9%14%Ukraine8.1%56%Bahrain13%Serbia62%NorthMacedonia7.0%75%Rep.ofMoldova5.4%64%Egypt5.0%26%Türkiye4.1%42%TrinidadandTobago3.6%20%Tajikistan3.0%19%Morocco2.3%59%Tunisia70%UnitedKingdom2.0%46%Note:TheabovecountriesareWTOmembers.Source:Author’scalculationsarebasedontheproductnomenclatureestablishedintheCBAMregulation(asamended)(EuropeanUnion,2023)andBACI(CEPII,2026)tradedata.TheEUCBAMwillimpactamoderateshareofEUimports.Since2012,EUCBAM-coveredgoodshaveaccountedfor3%to4.5%oftheEU’stotalimports.A2024implementationoftheEUCBAMwouldhavebroughtroughly3.5%ofthebloc’simportswithinitsframework(Figure2).AsdescribedinTable1,theEUCBAMfocusesonkeyupstreamproducts.Ofthese,ironandsteelarebyfarthemostsignificant,withavalueofEUimportsgreaterthanallotherCBAM-coveredsectorscombined.Aluminumisthenextbiggestcoveredsector.In2024,hydrogenexportstotheEUwerenegligible,dominatedbytheUnitedTheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments2026KingdomandtheUnitedStates,and,toalesserdegree,bySerbia.TheimpactonimportswouldbequitedifferentifsomeoftheadditionalcategoriesofproductsconsideredaspartofthedownstreamexpansionproposalareaddedtotheEUCBAMscope(Bonnetetal.,2026).Figure2.ImportsofEUCBAMgoodsasashareoftotalEUimportsShareShareoftotalEUimports(%)40ShareoftotalCBAMimports1%1%3%3%7%7%23%23%66%66%2012201420162018202020222024CementElectricityFertilizersAluminumIron/steelSource:Authors’calculationsbasedontheproductnomenclatureestablishedintheCBAMregulation(asamended)(EuropeanUnion,2023)andBACI(CEPII,2026)tradedata.Note:HydrogenisaresidualCBAMproductcategorywithalmost0%shareintheEU.TheStateofBorderCarbonAdjustments20263.1ContextInMarch2026,legislationwaspassedconfirmingthattheUKCBAMwouldbeimplementedonJanuary1,2027.Itestablishesthecorelegalframework,definesthesectorsandgoodsinscopebyreferencetospecificcommoditycodes,grantsHMRevenueandCustoms(theBritishtax,paymentsandcustomsauthority)statutorypowerstoadministerandenforcethemechanism,andsetsthelegalbasisforfurthersecondarylegislationtofollow(Burnettetal.,2026).Draftsecondarylegislation,settingoutthepracticalandtechnicaldetailsfortheUKCBAMtooperate,wasreleasedintwostages,with6-wee