麦肯锡 -制药行业：全球创新持续发展 Pharmaceuticals Innovating and advancing around the world

June2026

McKinsey

GlobalInstitute

Investmentcase

Pharmaceuticals:

Innovatingandadvancingaroundtheworld

Thecontinuedriseofmonoclonalantibodytherapiesanddemographicchangesarepoweringgrowthinthepharmaceuticalsindustry.

byFrédéricRemond,NormanCarra,VivekArora,AnnaKortis,andOlivierBus

Humanshavereliedondrugstoovercomeillnessandextendhealthandwellbeingforalmostaslongasthey'vewalkedplanetEarth.Therootsofmorphinedatebacksome8,000years,andpenicillin,discoveredin1928,stillsaveslivesbykillingdeadlybacteria.Morerecently,GLP-1

therapiespromisetoameliorateheartdisease,lowerbloodpressure,andreduceotherchronichealthissues.Monoclonalantibodiesareamajorclassofbiologicdrugsandplayaparticularlyimportantroleincancertreatment.Astheglobalpopulationagesandmorepeoplehavechronicdiseases,demandforpharmaceuticalswillcontinuetoincrease.Atthesametime,advancesinAlareacceleratingdrugdiscoveries.Together,thismeansinvestmentintheindustrywilllikelycontinuetogrow,andwhatfollowsexamineswhatittakestomanufacturemonoclonalantibodytherapiescompetitively.

TheinvestmentcaseisoneoftenusedintheresearchfortheMcKinseyGloballnstitute's

report,Catalyzingcompetitiveness:Whereinvestmenthappensandwhy.Thereport

examineshowvariationsinthebasiceconomicsofcomparableprojectsinfluenceinvestmentdecisionsindifferentregionsgloballyandtheimpactthosedecisionscanhaveonthefutureofcompetitivenessandgrowthacrosstheworld.

ThepharmaceuticalmarketisgrowingfasterthanglobalGDP,withagrowingroleforbiologics

Steadydemandgrowthandshiftsinunderlyingtechnologiespropelpharmaceutical

manufacturing.Changingdemographicsmeantheglobalmedianageisprojectedtorise

byaboutfiveyearsbetweennowand2050,whichisexpectedinturntoincreaseglobal

pharmaceuticalsalesatabout5percentCAGRayear.Additionally,anincreaseinthenumberofpeoplewithchronicdiseases,acorollaryofdemographictrends,pointstolong-termdemandformedicines.

Thepharmasupplychaintypicallystartswithresearchanddevelopment(R&D),including

discovery,preclinicalwork,andclinicaltrialspriortoregulatoryapproval.Thisphasecanlastaslongastwodecades.Patentprotectionistypicallyfiledduringdrugdevelopmentand,

onceobtained,lasts20yearsfromthefilingdate.Becauseaportionofthis20-yearperiodisconsumedbydevelopmentandregulatoryreview,theeffectivecommercialexclusivitywindowfollowingregulatoryapprovalshrinks.TheselongtimelinesandfiniteexclusivityperiodsmeanthattimeisofcriticalimportanceintheR&Dstageofpharmaceuticalinvestments.

DownstreamfromR&D,manufacturingisgenerallysplitintotwostages,drugsubstance,orproductionofanactiveingredient,anddrugproduct,whichiswhenadrugisformulatedintoitsfinal,patient-readyform.Drugsubstanceanddrugproductmanufacturingmaytakeplaceatthesamefacilityoratdifferentsitesandcanoccurin-houseorbeoutsourcedtocontractdevelopmentandmanufacturingorganizations(CDMOs).

Additionally,thepharmaceuticalsindustrydistinguishesbetweensmall-moleculeconventionaldrugsandlarger-moleculebiologicdrugs.Biologicsspanmultiplemodalities,including

monoclonalantibodies,cellandgenetherapies,andothercomplexbiologicsandhavedifferentmanufacturingprocessesandregulatoryrequirements.Innovationhassteadilyincreasedthe

marketshareofsuchadvancedtherapiesfrom30percentofoverallpharmasalesin2018to

morethan40percentin2024,aproportionexpectedtoincreasetoroughly45percentby2030.Biologicstypicallycommandhighergrossmarginsthansmall-moleculedrugs,reflectinggreaterclinicaldifferentiationandpricingpoweraswellasgreatermanufacturingcomplexity.

Pharmaceuticals:Innovatingandadvancingaroundtheworld2

Pharmaceuticals:Innovatingandadvancingaroundtheworld3

Monoclonalantibodies(mAbs)areamajorclassofbiologics.Theseantibodiesareimmune

proteinswithhighmolecularweightsthatareproducedinlivingcellculturesanddesigned

tobindtospecificbiologicaltargets,modulatingtheimmunesystem,blockingsignals,or

targetingdestructionofdiseasedcells.Theyareusedinmanytherapeuticareas,including

oncology,immunology,andtreatmentofautoimmuneandinflammatorydiseases,andtheyplayaparticularlybigroleincancertreatment.Amongadvancedbiologicmodalities,monoclonalantibodiesaccountforamajorshareofthebiologicsmarket;globaltherapeuticantibodysalesexceeded$267billionin2024.²

EuropeandtheUnitedStatesremainmajorpharmamanufacturinghubs,butUSinvestmentispullingahead

Pharmaceuticalgrossvalueadded(GVA)ishistoricallyconcentratedinEuropeandtheUnitedStates.3TheEU-27andtheUnitedStateseachaccountforroughly30percentofglobal

pharmaceuticalGVA,andChinaforroughly20percent.Ininvestmentterms,theUnitedStatesrepresentsabout30percentofglobalgrossfinancialcapitalformation,comparedto25percenteachforChinaandEurope.

Recentgreenfieldannouncements,however,suggestthattheUSshareofadvanced

pharmaceuticalsmanufacturingcouldbegrowing.Greenfieldexpansionsannouncedtotaled

about$18billionin2024andjumpedto$180billionin2025,accordingtoMcKinseyanalysis.

Thisstepchangeinannouncedinvestmentisassociatedwithrecentpolicymeasuresaimedat

strengtheningdomesticmanufacturing,includingtariffsandtraderestrictionsforimporteddrugs.

Materialsandlaborcostsdeterminecostsinanyonelocation,withwagedifferentialsdrivingdifferencesbetweenlocations

Theinvestmentcaseisbasedonadrugsubstancefacilitymanufacturingmonoclonalantibodieswithanannualcapacityof1,200kilograms.Thefindingsmayextendtootherinnovative

modalities,suchascellandgenetherapiesthathavesimilardynamics,butarelessrelevantforgenerics,forwhichcostistheoverridingfactorduetorapidpriceerosion.Chinaisthebase-caselocation,reflectingitslowermanufacturingcostsandgrowinginvestmentshare.ItiscomparedagainstsimilarlysizedfacilitiesusingcomparabletechnologiesinEasternEurope,Germany,andtheUnitedStates,usingalike-for-likecomparisonoflevelizedcosts.

Thelevelizedcostofdrugsubstancemanufacturing,whichmeasurestheaveragecostof

productionoverthelifetimeofafacility,isdrivenbyasmallnumberofitems.Operatingexpensesdominate.Materialscontributemosttocosts,reflectingtheuseofcellculturemedia,resins,

andsingle-useconsumablesinupstreamanddownstreamprocessing,accountingforabout

30percentofthelevelizedcostinthebasecase(seesidebar,"Methodology").Thefindingsofthiscasemayextendtootherinnovativemodalitiessuchascellandgenetherapies,whichhavesimilardynamics,butarelessrelevanttogenerics,forwhichrapidpriceerosionmakescosttheoverridingfactor.

Pharmaceuticals:Innovatingandadvancingaroundtheworld4

Exhibit1

Laborcostsaccountforasmuchas65percentofthevariationincostsforpharmaceuticalplantsacrosscountries.

Levelizedcostsofproducingamonoclonalantibodydrugsubstance,$thousand/kg,beforetaxesanddirectsubsidies

ConstructionEquipmentLaborMaterialsEnergyOtheropex

Basecase:China百420321485

1

Driversofcost

differences,baseto

comparisoncountry

China

Romania

85

Germany

85

UnitedStates

85

●Capitalexpenditures

Construction

Equipment

●Labor

Productivity

●Inputs

MaterialsEnergy

Otheroperatingexpenditures

●Performancedrivers

Timetomarket

Interactionvariable

Countrytotal

Note:Figuresmaynotsum,becauseofrounding.

1,200kgmonoclonalantibodydrugsubstance.Source:McKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysis

+1

+2

+4

+18

+1

+33

+8+1

+8+1

+8

+4

+2

+2

97

1.1×

116

1.4×

135

1.6×

McKinsey&Company

Pharmaceuticals:Innovatingandadvancingaroundtheworld

Sidebar

Methodology

Thisinvestmentcasecompares

thecostsofadrugsubstancefacility

manufacturingmonoclonalantibodies

acrossvariousgeographiestounderstandwhatmakessomeregionsmorecost

competitivethanothers.Ourlevelized

costmethodologyconvertsaproject's

fullifecycleeconomicsintoasingleunitcost.Itcanbeinterpretedastheunitpricethatwouldmakeaproject'snetpresentvalueequaltozerooveritsentirelife

cycle,whichistheminimumpricethatmakesthatprojectviableandisinline

withthemacroeconomicconceptoflongrunmarginalcosts.Itisalsoinlinewith

themacroeconomicconceptoflong-

termmarginalcosts.Thelevelizedcost

conceptiscommonlyappliedintheenergysector,whereitisknownasthelevelized

costofenergy.Wedonotconsidertaxes,subsidies,andexternalities,whichvaryandarehardtopindown.

Thecalculationsareinformedby

McKinsey'sworkinthepharmaceuticals

industry,whichprovidesourunderstanding

ofthecapitalexpenditure,labor,energy,

materials,andotherinputs,aswellastime,typicallyneededtobuildandoperatea

facilitymakingmonoclonalantibodies.

Wepricetheinputsatthetypicalcosts

inageography,drawingonproprietary

databasesmaintainedbyMGI'sEconomicsResearchteam,andatthetypicalweightedaveragecostsofcapital,drawingon

McKinsey'sValueIntelligenceplatform,acurateddatabaseofthefinancialsofcompaniesglobally.

Wagedifferentialsdrivevariationsinmanufacturingcostsbetweenregionsmorethananyotherfactor

Laborcostsarethebiggestcontributortocostdifferencesindrugsubstancemanufacturing

ofmonoclonalantibodiesaroundtheworld,accountingforabout60to65percentofthe

levelizedcostdifferencebetweenChinaandGermanyandtheUnitedStates(exhibit).Becauseproductivitylevelsareverysimilarinstate-of-the-artplants,thesedifferencesarelinked

primarilytowages.IntheUnitedStates,wagedifferencesaccountforessentiallytheentirelaborcostgapwithChina.WhencomparingGermanyandChina,Germany'sproductivityisabout

10percenthigher.Yetitshigherwagesresultinoperatinglaborcoststhatareapproximately

85percentgreaterthanChina's.ChinaandEasternEuropehaveonlylimiteddifferencesinlaborcostsoverall,withsimilarwagelevelsandproductivity.

Materialsarethesecond-largestdriveroflevelizedcostdifferences,contributingabout

20percentofthelevelizedcostgap.Thisreflectspricingpressureandamixofsourcing

strategiesinthebasecase,includingimportedmaterials,materialsmanufacturedlocallyinChinabymultinationalcompanies,andlocallysourcedmaterials.Bycontrast,EuropeandtheUnitedStatesareassumedtosourcelargelyfromglobalsuppliersandsopaybroadlycomparableprices.

Constructioncostsrepresentanothermeaningfulsourceofvariationinlevelizedcostindrug

substancemanufacturingofmonoclonalantibodies.Differencesarisefromhigherconstructionandprojectexecutioncostsandfromvariationintimetomarket.Differencesinconstructiontimearemainlytheresultofregulatoryrequirements.ConstructionproductivityishigherinAsia,while

regulatorycomplexityinEuropeanandUSmarketsoftenleadstocostlierdesignsandlongerconstructionperiods.nChina,fasterpermittingandapprovaltimelinescanfurthershorten

constructiontimelinescomparedtoEuropeandtheUnitedStates.Overall,constructioncostdifferencesaccountforabout5percentofthelevelizedcostgapandhavethelargestimpactintheUnitedStates.

Time-to-marketdifferencesaccountforanadditional5percentofthecostgapinourexample.Giventhatthemonoclonalantibodiesthatareaproductofdrugsubstancemanufacturingare

aninputforpatenteddrugsandthateffectivecommercialexclusivitytypicallyrangesfrom10to14yearsfollowingapproval,constructiondelayscancompressthecommercializationwindow,cuttingintorevenuesandprofits.Thecommercialimpactoftime-to-marketdifferencescan

varydependingontheproductandmarketcontext.Inoncologyandimmunologymarkets,

wheremonoclonalantibodytherapiesoftenincludehigh-revenueproducts,delaysinsecuringmanufacturingcapacitymaylimitsupplyduringpeaklaunchperiods,withimplicationsformarketpenetrationandrevenuecapture.Inothersituations,companiesmaymitigatetimingriskby

outsourcinginitialvolumestoCDMOsorleveragingexistingmanufacturingnetworks,inwhichcasetheimpactismorelimitedandprimarilyreflectedinmargindilutionratherthanlostsales.

Taxesandsubsidiesarenotmodeledherebutcanalsoplayanimportantroleintheeconomicsofthedrugsubstancemanufacturingofmonoclonalantibodies.Incentivesforpharmaceutical

manufacturingtypicallyincludefiscalandtaxmeasures,capitalgrants,operatingsubsidies,

andpreferentialfinancing.Theseincentivescaninfluencedecisionsattwolevels.Atacountry

level,governmentsmayoffertargetedpackagesaspartofbroaderstrategiestoattractpharmamanufacturingandinnovation.Onceacountryisselectedforinvestment,localauthoritiescan

offermateriallydifferentincentivesthatshapethechoicebetweencitiesorregionswithinthat

country.Giventheproject-specificnatureandhighvariabilityovertimeandacrosslocationsofincentives,theyarenotexplicitlyreflectedinourcorelevelizedcostmodeling.Nevertheless,theycanmateriallyaffectindividualbusinesscasesandfinalsiteselectiondecisions.

TechnologyandAlareincreasinglyplayingaroleintacklingthesecostdifferences.Biologicmanufacturingisinherentlycomplex,withhundredsofvariablesthataffectcost,quality,andproductivity.UsingautomationandAltomanagethatcomplexityisbecomingasourceof

competitiveadvantagethatismostvaluablewherelaborisexpensive.AsinvestmentflowsintotheUnitedStates,wherelaborcostsarehigh,sitesthatcanoperatewithgreaterautonomy

becomeevenmoreimportant.DeployingAlandautomationatscalecanoffsetthelaborcostdisadvantage.

Pharmaceuticalintermediatesarepricedontheworldmarket,offeringlimiteddifferentiation

Thevalueofmonoclonalantibodiesmanufacturingisnotdeterminedbyend-marketpricing.Drugsubstancemanufacturingisanintermediateinputintheproductionoffinishedbiologicsandistypicallytransferredinternallywithinacompany'smanufacturingnetworkorsupplied

underlong-termbusiness-to-businesscontracts.Asaresult,drugsubstancemanufacturingofmonoclonalantibodiesdoesnotgenerallyhaveageography-specificmarketprice.Inpractice,however,lower-costcountriesmayofferdiscountstointernationalbuyers,reflectingdomesticpricepressuresandlowerlocalmarketpriceexpectations.

Pharmaceuticals:Innovatingandadvancingaroundtheworld

6

Bycontrast,pricingdynamicsdifferattheleveloffinishedbiologics.Finaldrugpricesvary

significantlyacrossgeographies,withthehighestmonoclonalantibodypricesintheUnited

StatesandlowerpricesinEuropeandChinaduetodifferingreimbursement,negotiationand

reference-pricingmechanisms.5Thesedifferencesaffectoverallproduct-levelreturnsbutdonotdirectlytranslateintodifferencesindrugsubstancemanufacturingeconomics.

Industrialpolicyandstrategicprioritiesareincreasinglyshapingtheinvestmentfootprint

Costcompetitivenessremainsrelevanttopharmaceuticalmanufacturinglocationdecisions,

butrecentinvestmentpatterns-particularlyoverthepasttwoyears-arebetterexplained

bystrategicconsiderationsthanbycostalone.WhileChina'sunitcostsarelow,investmentin

higher-valuebiologicsmanufacturingtodayisstillconcentratedinEuropeandtheUnitedStates,reflectingtheimportanceofregulatorycredibilityandstrongintellectualpropertyprotection,aswellasreliableexecutionandproximitytoleadinginnovationecosystems.

Forbiopharmaexecutives,wideningcostdifferentialspointtoabroadershiftinmanufacturingcompetitiveness.Thetraditionallogicofoptimizingforlaborandoperatingcostsalonewhen

allocatingcapitalisnolongersufficient.Investmentdecisionsincreasinglyreflectaresiliencepremiumthatincorporatessupply-chainsecurity,speedtomarket,andevolvingindustrial

policies.Forcomplexbiologics,manufacturersoftenprioritizelocationsnearR&D,clinical

development,andtechnicaltalent,wherecolocationcanaccelerateprocessdevelopment,

supportfasterscale-up,andimprovecoordinationacrosstechnical,regulatory,andcommercialteamsduringlaunch.Theseadvantagescanoutweighmoderateoperatingcostdifferences,

especiallyinnovativeorhigh-valueproductsthatrequirespeed,reliability,andquality

consistency.Inthiscontext,thehighercostsofestablishedbiopharmahubscanbeviewed

asanecosystempremium,providingaccesstoexperiencedoperators,CDMOs,specialized

suppliers,regulatoryexpertise,andmanufacturingknow-how.Toremaincompetitive,

companieswillneedtocomplementtheseadvantageswithadvancedmanufacturing

technologies,includingAlandautomation,thatraiseproductivityandreducerelianceonlabor.Theleadersofthenextdecadearelikelytobethosethatmovebeyondpurely