麦肯锡2025年全球材料展望报告

McKinsey

&Company

■

GlobalMaterialsPerspective

2025

October2025

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Aboutthisreport

TheGlobalMaterialsPerspective2025isproducedby

McKinsey'sGlobalEnergy&MaterialsPractice.Buildingonthepreviousyear'sreport,thisyear'sPerspectiveexploresmaterialsdemandacrossthreeenergytransitionscenarios

(asdefinedinourGlobalEnergyPerspective2025)aswellasthreesupplyscenarios,basedonasset-leveldatamodeled

byMineSpans.Ouraimistoprovideinsightintothechanging

availability,affordability,andsustainabilityofmaterials,

includingthosethatareciticaltotheenergytransitionandtheexpansionofdigitalinfrastructure.

Whilethematerialsindustryspansabroadrangeof

subindustries-includingmetalsandmining,buildingmaterials(concreteandcement,glass,andmore),plastics,andpulpandpaper-thisreportfocusesprimarilyonmetalsandmining,

whichcanbecategorizedalongthefollowinglong-termdemandtrendsdrivenbytheenergytransition:

一Materialsforwhichdemandisonlytoasmallextent

drivenbythespeedoftheenergytransitionandthatareconsequentlytrendinginlinewiththegrowthofglobal

GDPandthegrowingmiddleclass(forexample,steelandai

—Materialsforwhichdemandislargelyandpositively

affectedbytheenergytransitionbecausethematerials

arerequiredinoneorseverallow-carbontechnologiescomparedwithconventionaltechnologiesandare

thereforefrequentlygrowingfasterthaninthepreviousdecade(forexample,copper,ithium,andrareearth

elements[REEs]

—Materialsforwhichdemandislargelyandnegatively

affectedbytheenergytransitionbecausethesematerialsareundamentaltoconventionaltechnologies,whicharelikelytobegraduallyphasedoutinthecomingdecades

(withthermalcoalaprimeexample)

Inthecomingmonths,weplantoissueseparatepublicationsonthelatestdynamicsintheplasticsandlumberindustries.

TheGlobalMaterialsPerspectivespoweredbyMineSpans,whichispartofMcKinsey'sGlobalEnergyandMaterials

Practice.MineSpansisaleadingandcomprehensive

metalsandminingmarketintligencesolution,combining

McKinsey'sglobalexpertisewithproprietarydatatoprovide

anindependentandholisticviewoncommoditymarkets.Builtbyourcommoditiesexpertsandcoveringmorethan14,000

globalassetsacrossmorethan15commodityvaluechains,ourdetailedbottom-upsupplyanddemandforecasts,granular

costmodels,andenvironmental,social,andgovemancedata

formthebasisofMcKinsey'sindustryperspectivestohelpempowerdecision-makers.

AboutEnergySolutionsbyMckinsey.EnergySolutionsis

McKinsey'sglobalmarketintelligenceandanalyticsgroup

focusedontheenergysector.Thegroupenablesorganizationstomakewell-informedstrategic,tactical,andoperational

decisionsbyusinganintegratedsuiteofmarketmodels,proprietaryindustrydata,leadingindustrybenchmarks,

advancedanalyticaltools,andaglobalnetworkofindustryexperts.Ithelpsleadingcompaniesacrosstheentireenergyvaluechainmanagerisk,optimizeorganization,andimprove

performance.

AboutMcKinsey&Company:Mckinseyisaglobalmanagementconsultingfirmcommittedtohelpingorganizationsaccelerate

sustainableandinclusivegrowth.Thefirmworkswithclients

acrosstheprivate,public,andsocialsectorstosolvecomplex

problemsandcreatepositivechangesforalltheirstakeholders.

Itcombinesboldstrategiesandtransformativetechnologiestohelporganizationsinnovatemoresustainably,achievelastinggainsinperformance,andbuildworkforcesthatwilthriveforthisgenerationandthosetocome.

GlobalMaterialsPerspective20252

Foreword(1/2)

Inthepastyear,thematerialsindustryhasonceagain

seenseveralshifts:increasingresourcenationalismand

protectionism,theriseofnewdemandvectorsfromAland

defense,emergingsignsofaproductiverebound,andthe

slowdownofdecarbonizationinselectedregions.Looking

ahead,successlikelyrequirescapturinggrowthwhile

improvingproductivityanddeliveringsustainablesolutions.

Overall,thematerialsindustrycontractedin2024,with

metalsandminingrevenuesdown6percenttoapproximately$3trillion,partiallyoffsetbygrowthinothermaterialssectors,whileprofitabilityremainedresilientatabout$1.3tillion

(withmetalsandminingaccountingfor$700bilion),comingwithashiftinprofitpoolsfromthermalcoalandsteeltowardgold,copper,andaluminum,ashiftthathasbeenongoingforseveralyears.

Geopoliticalfocusonmaterialshasintensified,withnewtariffs,incentives,andexportbarriers,whilesupplyconcentration

continuedtoriseforseveralcommoditiesinbothminingandrefining.Ouranalysisshowsthatmeasuresprimarilyfocuson

commoditiesthatappearoncountries'citicalmineralslistsandhavehighsupplyconcentration(exceptforUStaniffs).

Meanwhile,decarbonizationprogresshasslowedinsome

regions.InEuropeandtheUnitedStates,forexample,battery-electric-vehicle(BEV)salesasshareoftotalcarsalesflattenedorslowedcomparedwithpreviousyears.Atthesametime,

boldinnovationintechnology,processes,andelectrificationhasaccelerated.

Againstthisbackdrop,capitalmarketshaveremainedstrong,withtotalshareholderreturns(TSR)growing3.5timesand

marketcapitalizationdoublingsince2015.

Insummary,thematerialsindustryhasseenfoursignificantshiftssincelastyear'sreport:

-Geopoliticsandagloballandscapewhereglobalization

ischangingbutnotdisappearinghaveledtoincreased

resourcenationalismorprotectionism??Thishascreatedadditionalrisks,suchasinaccessibleendmarketsandtheneedforlocalsupplyintegration,aswellasopportunities,suchasfinancialincentivesfornewprojectsinresource-importingregions.

-AccelerateddemandfromtheexpansionofAltechnologieswillikelyhaveamaterialimpactondemandprofiles,

especillyforcopper-forexample,projectionsshowanincreaseincopperdemandrelatedtodatacentersof3

percentby2030,partiallyoffsettingslowdownindemandfromlower-carbontechnologies.

-Arecentcapitalintensityandproductivityreboundis

becomingvisibleintheminingindustry-andseveral

newtechnologiesandpracticeshaveemergedthathold

promiseforcontinuingthistrend,includinggenerativeAl.

1Formore,see"Restricted:Howexportcontrolsarereshapingmarkets,"McKinsey,April3,2025.

2Formore,see"Anewtradeparadigm:Howshiftsintradecoridorscouldaffectbusiness,"McKinsey,June18,2025.

GlobalMaterialsPerspective20253

Foreword(2/2)

-Decarbonizationisslowinginselectedregionsand

commodities,mostnotablyintheEuropeansteelindustry,inwhichnearlyathirdofannouncedprojectshavebeen

putonholdorcanceled.Atthesametime,thermalcoal

demandhascontinuedtoincrease,withrecordproduction

ofeightmetricgigatons(Gt).

Lookingahead,thedemandoutlokthrough2035appears

robustacrossallscenarios.Primaryreasonsforthisincludean

increasingpopulationandthedevelopmentofthemiddleclass

aswellasthedeploymentoflow-carbontechnologies-with

energytransitionmaterialsdrivingmorethanhalfofthegrowth.Inaddition,demandgrowthcouldcomefromnewapplications,suchasAldatacenters,aswellaspotentialadditionalupside

fromthedefensesector.Together,ChinaandtherestofAsiacouldaccountformorethan45percentofthisgrowth.

Onthesupplyside,capacityramp-uphaskeptpacewith

forecasts,withChinesefirmscontinuingtogrowtheirmarketshareoutsideofChina.However,supplyremainshighly

concentrated,andseveralkeycommodities(suchasREEs)facepersistentconstraints.Althoughtheglobalsupply-

demandgapisnarrowing,closingitcompletelycouldrequiretilionsofdollarsininvestment,massivenewpowercapacity,andcontinuedinnovation.

Inthiscontext,weseethreeareasofopportunity:

一Pursuegrowthinthemutilateralworldbyexpandingintonewgeographiesandcriticalmaterials-whereyouhaveaclear"righttoplay,"withpossibletailwindsfromgovernmentincentives-orunlockingvaluefromscrap,

recycling,andnichehigh-growthsectorsandproducts

relatedtodigitalinfrastructureanddefense.

一Acceleratetheproductivity“rebound'throughgenAl,

automation,next-generationoperationalexcellence,andglobalsourcingtocounterproductivitydeclinesandrisingcostsfromloweroregrades;laborshortages;environment,health,andsafetyrequirements;andprojectcomplexity.

一Pursuetargetedsustainabiltyeffortsbyadvancing

decarbonizationwithstepwise,cost-effectiveapproachesthatcutemissionswhilescalinglow-carbonprocesses,recycling,andcircularbusinessmodels-butdon'tanchorbusinesscasesingreenpremiums(fornow).

As30to50percentofTSRoverperformanceisdrivenby

companyoperatingdecisions,top-quartileproductivityanddisciplinedgrowthremaintheclearestmarkersoflong-termsuccess,reflectedinstrongermargins,resilientreturns,andlastingcompetitiveness.Althoughchallengesrangingfromtightersupply-demandbalancestostricterdecarbonizationtargetsloom,boldinnovatorsarealreadyreshapingthe

competitivelandscape.

OurGlobalMaterialsPerspective2025providesasystemwide

viewoftheseshifts,spanningmines,manufacturing,

infrastructure,consumermarkets,andfinance.Looking

ahead,successinmetalsandminingwillrequirenotonly

capturinggrowthbutalsoimprovingproductivityanddeliveringsustainablesolutions.Thosewilingtoactdecisivelywillbe

bestpositionedtoseizetheopportunitiesahead.

GlobalMaterialsPerspective20254

Ourinsightsare

basedonthreesupplyscenarios,frombasecasetofullpipeline

Thesupplyscenariosexploredinthispublicationarebased

onourresearchonthematurityandlikelihoodofindividual

projectsinthemetalsandminingindustry.Theresearchis

anchoredonMcKinsey'sMineSpansdatabase,whichprovidesacomprehensivemetalsandminingmarketintelligence

solutioncontainingmorethan14,000assetsacrossmorethan140countries.Recycledmaterialsareincludedinthesupplyscenarios,basedonassumptionsabouttypicalend-productlifetimesandcollectionandrecoveryrates.Thefndingsinthisreportarebasedonthetwospecificscenarios:

—Thebase-casescenarioincludesalloperatingassets

(correctedfordepletionandforgradechangeswhererelevant)andprojectscurrentlyunderconstruction.Italsoincludes

projectsforwhichafeasibilitystudyisbeingconductedorhasbeenconductedaswellasprojectsforwhichfinancinghas

beensecured.

一Thehigh-casescenanioincludesthepreviouscasesaswellas

projectsforwhichaprefeasibilitystudyhasbeencompleted.

Projectsthathavebeenannouncedbuthavenotyetinitiateda

prefeasibilitystudyarenotincludedintheforecast.

Supplyscenariosarebasedonannouncedprojects-totheextentthattheyareavailableinthepublicdomain-anddonotconsidertheoreticalcapacityncreases.

140+

countries

13

stand

CO₂factors

10+

yearoutlook

IncludedinscenarioONotincludedSupplyscenarios

ProjectstatusStatusdescriptionBasecaseHighcaseFullpipeline

Inoperationcsettslyoperating;correctedfor

Certain

Projectscurrentlyunderconstructionorwitha

feasibilitystudycompletedandfinancingsecured

Probable

Projectswithafeasibilitystudyunderdevelopment;start-updateadjustedforlikelihoodofexecution

Possible¹

Projectswithaprefeasibilitystudycompleted;

start-updateadjustedforlikelihoodofexecution

0

Unlikely

Projectswithaprefeasibilitystudycompletedbutclearroadblocksidentified

0

0

UnrealisticorAnyprojectthathasbeenannounced00

pIVIauVII

ISomeprefeasabilitystudyprojectsmayalsobeincludedinthe"probable"categoryiftheprojectscharacteristicsandexpectationsarerobust.Source:McKinseyMineSpans

McKinsey&Company

1.8million+

datapoints

14,000+

assets

Research

components

GlobalMaterialsPerspective20255

GlobalMaterialsPerspective20256

Thedemandoutlookisbasedonour

continued-momentumemissionsreductionscenario

Globalgreenhousegas

emissions,'metricgigatons(Gt)ofCO₂equivalentper

annum

60

051

40

030

023

20

ScenariosarealignedwithGlobalEnergyPerspective

203020402050

049

038

08

Slowevolution

Continuedmomentum

Scenarioconsideredinthisreport

Sustainabletransformation

1.5pathwaytrajectory

Paceofchange

Conservative

Accelerated

Slowevolution

Projectedglobaltemperatureincreaseby2100:27℃

Localenergydecisionsprioritizeaffordabilityandsupplysecurity;investmentsin

low-carbonstallandCO₂pricesdon'tchangeCross-regionalclean-energyfinancing

declines,andemergingeconomiesoptforcheaperenergysources

Decarbonizationtargetsaremissed,

innovationslows,andtheenergytransitionreliescompletelyonmaturetechnologiesTherearepersistentbottlenecks,includinggriddelays,resourceshortages,andlaborgaps

Continuedmomentum

Projectedglobaltemperatureincreaseby2100:2.3℃

Nationsbalanceaffordability,supplysecurity,andsustainability;CO2pricesgradually

increase,andnewschemesareintroduced

Cross-regionalclean-energyfinancing

expands,andmatureeconomiessupportthedecarbonizationofemergingeconomies

Decarbonizationtargetsaremetwithadelay

onlyforindividualsectorsinspecificcountries,innovationcontinuesathistoricallyhighrates,andpilot-stagetechnologiesreachmaturity

Bottlenecksease,andgridexpansionand

infrastructureimprovementprogresstomeetrisingelectricitydemand

Sustainabletransformation

Projectedglobaltemperatureincreaseby2100:1.9℃

Nationsprioritizesustainabilityandacceleratedecarbonizationefforts,whileensuring

affordabilityandsupplysecurityremain

balanced;CO₂pricesandsocialcostsalign;andglobalenergytradeisfullyliberalized

Cross-regionalclean-energyfinancingexpands,fosteringcollaborationamongmatureand

emergingeconomies

Decarbonizationtargetsaremet,investmentdrivesmajorefficiencyandtechgains,andadvancedsolutionsarewidelyadopted

Bottlenecksarefullyresolved,andgridexpansionalignswithdemand

Note:Warmingestimateisanindicationofglobalisentemperatureby2100vspreindustialevels,basedonMAGICCVZ.5.3asuedinntergovernmentaPanelonCimateChangeSixthAssessmentReportgiventherespectiveenergyandnonenergy(eg,agricultureanddeforestation)emissionlevelsandassumingcontinuationoftrendsafter2050buno

net-negativeemissions.Theremainingemissionsin2050(ie,~4Gt)arecompensatedbynegativeemissionsfromdirectaircapturewithcarbonstorage,bioenergywithcarboncap-

tureandstorage,andreforestation.

'Includesprocessemissionsfromcementproduction,chemicalproduction,andrefiningaswellasnegativeemissionsfromapplyingcarboncapture,utilization,andstorage.Source:IEAGobalEnergyReview2022;IEAWorldEnergyBalances;McKinseyGlobalEnergyPerspective2025

McKinsey&Company

1

Stateoftheindustry

2

Availabilityandgrowth

3

Productivityandaffordability31

4

Sustainability

39

Theway

forward48

Whilecoalandsteelprice

correctionshavetriggeredacyclicalrevenuedecline,gold,copper,and

aluminumkeptprofitabilityand

capitalmarketperformancestrong,

withprojecteddemandexpectedtostayrobust,fueledbytheenergytransitionandtheexpansionof

digitalinfrastructure.

GlobalMaterialsPerspective2025

Stateoftheindustry:Keymessages

2

Geopoliticsand

supplyconcentration

There'sbeenastep-upin

effortstoprotectsupply

chainsinthefaceof

increasinglyconcentrated

supplyandgeopoliticalrisk

Supplyhasbecomemoreconcentrated'overthepast

5years,withminingsupply

concentrationincreasingby3percentagepointsandrefin-ingsupplyconcentrationby

5percentagepoints.Inthepastyear,manygovern-mentshaveacceleratedstra-tegicactionstostrengthensupplychainresilienceandreducedependenceon

importedmaterials-from

exportbarriersandresourcenationalizationtoimport-sidemeasuressuchasdevelop-

mentfundingandstockpiling

Tradebarriersarefueling

short-termpricevolatility,especialyforminormetals

withlimitedshort-termsupplyalternatives(suchasanti-

mony).However,mostprices

normalizedshortlyafterspikesasalternativesupplywas

broughtonline.

3

Decarbonization

Despitecontinuednet-zeroambitions,decarbonizationprogresshasslowed,

especiallyintheEuropeansteelindustry.

Thermalcoalproduction

reachedarecordhighof

eightGtin2024,despite

globaldecarbonizationefforts

Thevolumeofrecycled

materialshasincreased

acrosscommodities,with

significantimprovementin

batteryrecycling.However,

theshareofrecycledmaterialsintotalcommodityvolumes

increasedonlyforzincandbatterymaterials.

Low-carbonsteelprojects

slowed,particularlyinEuropeInfact,uptoathirdof

announcedprojectsare

onholdorcanceledasof

June2025.

4

Capitalmarkets

Capitalmarketssawstrong

long-termgrowthandresil-iencein2024despiterecentrevenuedeclines.

Despiterevenuedeclines,metalsandminingcapitalmarketsdeliveredstronggrowth,withTSRgrowing

3.5timessince2015.Structur-alshiftsoverthisperiod

includegreaterfragmentation,withChinaandNorthAmericaincreasingtheirsharesoftotalmarketcapitalization,andashifinthetoptencompaniesassteel'ssharedeclinedandcoal'sshareincreasedfollow-ingtheentryofamajor

Chinesecoalproducer.

Althoughthemarketisinher-entlyvolatilebecauseof

changingcommodityprices,30to50percentofTSRvola-tilityoroverperformance

remains,drivenbycompany

operatingdecisions.To

achieveTSRoutperformance,companieswilllikelyneedtocombinetop-quartileproduc-tiongrowthwithanabove-me-dianpositionincostefficiencyandproductivity.

工

Growthand

profitability

Thesectorisexperiencingacyclicalreset,withvaluepoolsshiftingfromsteelandcoaltogold,copper,andaluminum.

Thematerialsindustrysawa2percentslowdownin2024

duetoacyclicalresetin

metalsandmining,inwhich

revenuedeclinedby6percentto$3trillion.Thisdecreasewasprimarilydrivenbyfallingpricesinthermalcoal(down

3percent)andsteel(down

12percent).

However,overallprofitabilityinmaterials($1.3trillion)andmetalsandmining($700illion)remainedresilient

thankstorobustdemand

acrossmostcommoditiesas

wellasincreasingpricesforgold,copper,andaluminum.

Whilevaluepoolsareshiftingupstreamforsteelandcopper,thereisnogeneraltrend

observedfortheothercommodities.

'Supplyconcentrationismeasuredbythevolumeshareofthetop3supplyingcountriesforthelargest15commoditiesglobally.

McKinsey&Company

GlobalMaterialsPerspective20258

Materialsrevenues

stagnatedin2024,

drivenbyadeclineinmetalsandmining

Followingaperiodofhighpricevolatilitydrivenbyincreased

supplychaindisruptionandvolatilityinenergyprices,amongotherfactors,materialsrevenuesslightlycontractedin2024toabout$6.7tilon.

Acyclicalresetinmetalsandmining,whichcontractedby

6percenttoapproximately$3trillion,wasalmostfullyoffsetbygrowthinothersubsectors.Thedeclinewasprimarilytheresultofpriceadjustmentsinthermalcoal,steel,andbatterymaterials.

Nevertheless,2024ranksamongthesector'sfourhighest-earningyearsinthepasttwodecades.

CAGR2000-242023-24

Revenuesofthematerialsindustry,'nominal$trillion

■Metalsandmining²Buildingmaterials³Pulpandpaper⁴■Plastics⁵

~5.2

1.8

20202024

EBITDA,6

$trillion~0.4

2005

~0.6

2015

~0.8

2000

2010

~4.7

~4.5

~2.8

1.1

~

~

Overal:6%

7%

4%

5%

7%

Overall:

1%

2%

2%

Note:Historicalrevenuesandproitaityaediferentfromour2024reportprimarilybecauseofachangeinthecalculationmethodologyforthermalcoaltobetterrepresentqualityandregionalpricedifferences.

Sumofrevenuespermaterial,usingaverageyearlyrefinedmaterialmarketpricesanddemandvolumes.

Stel,thermalcoal,basemetals(aluminum,copper,lead,tin,andzinc)batterymetal(cobalt,nickel,ithum,graphit,andmanganese),preciousmetalsgold,silver,platinumgroupmetals),andothers(industrialmineralsrareeathelements,minormetals,fertilzers,anduranium).

SWood,cement,sandandgravel,andglass.

4Pulp,paper,andcartonboard.

Commodityplastics,engineeringplastics,andhigh-performancethermoplastics.

CalculatedusingtotalrevenuesandaverageadjustedEBITDAmarginfromMineSpansforasampleof100companies.

Source:AmericǎnChemistyCounci;Eurostat;Fastmarkets;InternationalTradeCenterTradeMap;S&PGlobal;Statista;worldBank;MckinseyMineSpans

McKinsey&Company

Thedeclineinmetalsandminingwas

mainlydrivenbypricecorrectionsinsteel

andthermalcoal

Metalsandminingrevenuesdecreasedby6percentfrom2023

to2024.Thiswasmostlybecauseofweakersteeldemandin

China,drivenprimarilybyaslowdownintheconstructionindustry,alongsidefallingpricesforsteel,thermalcoal,andbattery

matenials.

Thepricecorrectioninsteelwaspartiallydrivenbyincreasing

exportsfromChina(whichsawadeclineindomesticdemand).Forthermalcoal,itwasanormalizationfrom“"flyup”pricescaused

bytightsupplyin2022.Forbatterymaterials,lowerpricesweredrivenbyslower-than-expectedgrowthinEVswhilesupply

continuedtoscaleupfasterthanexpected.Thatsaid,mostothermaterialsexperienceddemandgrowthandpriceincreases.

Changeinprice,volume,andrevenuefrom

2023to2024fortopcommoditiesandbatterymaterials,%

Metalsandminingrevenuesbycommodity,

nominalStrillions(%oftotalrevenues)Steelvaluechain²Thermalcoal

Aluminum■Batterymaterials³

PriceVolume

GrowingGold个23个3

Aluminum个7个2

03(8%)

DecliningSteel

value

chain²

Thermal

coal

Battery

materials

2024

Revenue

个27

个11

0.4(13%)

0.6(20%)

0.2(7%)

02(7%)

0.3(9%)

12(38%)

↓-24

02(8%)

2023

86%

3.3

3.1

Note:Figuresmaynotsumtototas,becauseofrounding.

Revenuecalculatedasproductofaverageyearlyrefinedmaterialmarketpricesanddemandvolumes;pricesandrevenuesarenominal.

2Includesmetallurgicalcoal,ironore,andsteel.

Batterymaterialsincludelitium,nckel,cobalt,manganese,andnaturalgraphiteyweighteaverageofpricevolume,andrevenueofthe5includedmaterialsare

comparedbetween2024and2023.

Source:McKinseyMineSpans

4Includesasetof30othermaterials,incllead,platinumgroupmetals,potash,silver,uranium,andzinc.

McKinsey&Company

GlobalMaterialsPerspective202510

GlobalMaterialsPerspective2025

Profitabilityandcashpositionsstayedstrongasvaluepoolsshifted

fromsteelandcoaltogold,copper,and

aluminum

Profitabilityandcashpositionforthemetalsandminingindustry

EBITDA,nominal$trillion×%EBITDAmargin

Cashandshort-terminvestmentsasashareoftotalassets,2%

1盘

1.1

0.80.5

0.40.30.2

20202021202220232024

24%31%28%24%24%

2000200520102015

27%32%30%18%

0Z

0.7

2023vs2024change,p.p.

$0.7trillion-4

8

个

个

个

2

8

-3

-4

6

f1

18

35

23

2024

200020052010201520202021202220232024

EBITDApoolsbycommodity,3%oftotalEBITDA

$0.8tillion

AluminumCopper

Gold

4

9

10

SteelvaluechainThermalcoal

38

27

2023

Note:Figuresdonotsumto100%,becauseofrounding.

Calculatedbasedonbotom-upMckinseyMineSpansglobalrevenuesandaverageadjustedEBITDAmarginforsampleof100metasandminingcompaniesfromtheMcKinseyValueIntelligencePlatform,weightedbasedonrevenuesplitbycommodity.

2Calculatedassumofadjustedcashandshort-terminvestmentsdidedbysumoftotalasets,singdatasetof355metasandmingcompaniesbyfscalyear.CalculatedusingaverageadjustedEBITDAmarginbycommodityfosampleof100metalsandminingcompaniesfromtheMckinseyValueIneligencePlatform.4Percentagepoints.

Source:McKinseyValuentelligencePlatform;S&PGobalMarketIntelligence;McKinseyMineSpans

McKinsey&Company

Countriesaremakingstrategicmovesto

reducedependenceongeopoliticallysensitivematerials

Somecountriesaretakingactionstopreservetheir

preeminentpositionsintheglobalsupplylandscapeor

improvelocalvalueadditionbyimplementingexport

barriersorenforcelocaldownstreamintegration(see

sidebar"Recentexportbarriershaveaffectedcritical

mineralswithhighsupplyconcentration").RecentyearsinparticularhaveseenatrendofAfricannationsimposingexportbarriersonoreandconcentratestostimulatelocaldownstreamprocessing.

Atthesametime,countriesthatarenotself-sufficientare

increasingeffortstostimulatelocaldevelopmentthroughimportbarriers,resourcedevelopmentfunds,andthe

announcementofstrategicprojectsthathavebetteraccesstofundingandacceleratedpermitting.Inaddition,thereisatrendtowardstockpilingtomitigateeconomiceffectsof(temporary)disruptionstoglobalsupplychains.

Strategicmovesmainlyimplementedbyimportingandexportingcountriesandregions,nonexhaustive

Examplesofcountries

Examplesofopportunities

Strategicmoves

enactingstrategicmoves

forcompanies

Exporting

countries

Exportbarriers¹

Domesticdownstreamintegration

requirements

Supplynationalizationofstrategic

commodities

Chile

ChinaDRC²

Gabon

IndonesiaZambia

Accelerateddevelopmentofalternativesupplyroutes

DRC

GabonGuinea

IndonesiaZambia

Zimbabwe

Establishedindependentproducersalreadybenefitingorstandtobenefitfromgainingglobalfootholdindownstreamvaluechain

Chile

DRC

Indonesia

Mexico

SaudiArabiaZambia

Partnershipwithlong-standinggloballyleadingproducers

Exporting

importing

and

countries

Bilateralagreements

Canada

China

DRC

EUandUK

Indonesia

SaudiArabia

ImportingcountriesImportbarriers(tariffs)USShiftindomesticprojecteconomics,enabling

newinvestments(eg,EGA³announced

investmentinUSaluminumsmelter)

Resourcedevelopmentfunds

AustraliaEUandUK

Japan

US

Boosttopro