摩根士丹利-中国互联网及其他服务：中国的AI路径-China Internet and Other Services：China's AI Path-20261019

FoundationcommercialactivitiesarecarriedMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+EquityAnalyst+8522848-6918Gary.Yu@+8522848-6918EquityAnalyst+8522239-7339Eddy.Wang@+8522239-7339EquityAnalyst+8522239-1911Yang.Liu@+8522239-1911EquityAnalyst+8522848-7359Rebecca.Xu@+8522848-7359EquityAnalyst+8522239-1572Lydia.Lin@+8522239-1572ResearchAssociate+8523963-2618Kathy.Zhu@+8523963-2618ResearchAssociate+8523963-1592Joanne.CY.Lau@+8523963-1592EquityAnalyst+8523963-1860Tom.Tang@+8523963-1860ChinaInternetChinaInternetandOtherServicesAsiaPacific金山办公RangeTechnologyDevelRangeTechnologyDevel天数智芯天数智芯北方华创沐曦沐曦FoundationAIInfrastructureMorganStanleyResearch3~self-sufficiencyrate~~12%6FoundationAICloudisthemajorgrowthdriverTotalcapextobe~16%ofUSpeers--WeforecastRmb1.2tr(US$142tr)hyperscaler/internetcapexin2027E Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.Foundation…Shouldtranslateinto~55GWcomputedomesticallyWeforecastcomputecapacitytoexpandto81GWby2030E-DomesticcomputedeploymentischeapervstheUS…atUS$15-23mnperMW--Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.MorganStanleyResearch78FoundationAICloudisthemajorgrowthdriverWeforecast34GWdomesticnetaddsbyhyperscalersin2026-30E---Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.…47GWonglobalscaleCapex/Procurement—→Drectcashflow(capex/prepayment/equi品Source:NDRC,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Thesizeofthebubbalternatefinancing12FoundationPowerdemandanddatacenterorderforecasts8642-Weforecast5.6-13GWpowerdemandin2026-2030E…and6.1-11GWthird-partyIDCorder-Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.FoundationGPUIaaS–self-ownedvsrented---------- -------------Rentedinfra–nocapex,~20%OPmargin------------Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.MorganStanleyResearch1314FoundationMaaS–1Pvs3rdpartyAPI1PModel–53%OPmargin,19%ROICand2.5-yearpaybackROICforCSP/hyperscalersself-builROICforCSP/hyperscalersself-builRevenuegeneratingtoTaxROICforCSP/hyperscalersself-built3rdpartyAPI(Rmb)1Pbasecasethroughput4,0004,0004,0004,0004,000Discountto1Pmodel50%40%30%20%10%Tokenthroughput(token/second/GPU)2,0002,4002,8003,2003,600Inferencevstrainingworkload100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%Utilizationrate75.0%75.0%75.0%75.0%75.0%Revenuegeneratingtokens(mn)378,432454,118529,805605,491681,178Input4.005.507.008.5010.00Input(KVCache)0.400.550.700.851.00Output12.0016.5021.0025.5030.00Blended(Rmb/mn)5.467.519.5611.6013.65Blended(US$/mn)0.811.111.421.722.02Revenue2,066,2393,409,2945,062,2857,025,2129,298,074Sharingratio10%10%10%10%10%Revenuesharing206,624340,929506,228702,521929,807Serverdepreciation1,600,0001,600,0001,600,0001,600,0001,600,000IDCdepreciation26,66726,66726,66726,66726,667Energycost68,00068,00068,00068,00068,000Totalcostandopex1,901,2912,035,5962,200,8952,397,1882,624,474Inferencecost1,901,2912,035,5962,200,8952,397,1882,624,474Grossprofit164,9481,373,6982,861,3904,628,0246,673,600%margin8.0%40.3%56.5%65.9%71.8%OP/EBIT164,9481,373,6982,861,3904,628,0246,673,600%margin8.0%40.3%56.5%65.9%71.8%Taxrate15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%NOPAT140,2061,167,6432,432,1813,933,8205,672,560Server8,000,0008,000,0008,000,0008,000,0008,000,000IDC400,000400,000400,000400,000400,000Totalcapex8,400,0008,400,0008,400,0008,400,0008,400,000ROIC(NOPAT/Capex)1.7%13.9%29.0%46.8%67.5%EBITDA1,791,6153,000,3644,488,0566,254,6908,300,267Tax(24,742)(206,055)(429,208)(694,204)(1,001,040)Operatingcashflow1,766,8732,794,3104,058,8485,560,4877,299,227Cashpayback(yrs)4.753.012.071.511.153Pmodel–57%OPmargin,29%ROICand2-yearpaybackSource:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.MorganStanleyResearch15FoundationDomesticinferencing–ROICcouldbelower,butroomforimprovementROICforCSP/hyperscalersself-bui20%25%Tax Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.16FoundationAIFoundationModelMorganStanleyResearch17FoundationAlibabaMiniMaxMoonshotDeepSeekTencentXiaomiModelQwen3.8-MaxGLM-5.3V4-ProHy4PreviewMiMo-V2.6-ProReleasedateAug-26Jun-26Aug-26Jul-26Aug-26Aug-26Sep-26LicenseOpenWeightCommunityLicenseLicenseKimiK3LicenseApache2.0Totalparameter(B)Activeparameter(B)Contextwindow(K)APIprice(Rmb/mntokens)Input(uncached)12.00Input(cachedread)OutputAAIntelligenceIndexAlibabaMiniMaxDeepSeekXiaomiModelQwen3.8-flashpreviewGLM-5.3FlashV4.1flashMiMo-V2.6-ReleasedateAug-26Sep-26Aug-26Sep-26Sep-26LicenseQwenCommunityTotalparameter(B)Activatedparameter(B)Prefill68Contextwindow(K)APIprice(Rmb/mntokens)Input(uncached)Input(cachedread)OutputAAIntelligenceIndexSource:Companydata,ArtificialAnalysis18FoundationGlobalSOTAModel•Modelperformancecriteria:intelligencelevel,price,speed•Chinacontributesoverhalfofthetop10SOTAmodelsgloballyasamajorcompetitortotheUS•AImodelstrategy:“Open”Chinavs.“Proprietary”USArtificialArtificialAnalysisintelligenceindex0Source:ArtificialAnalysis,Arena.ai,updatedasOct2026Arena.aicodingscoreArena.aicodingscoreFeb2320FoundationChinaMajorLLMPricingTrend ChinafrontierLLMsaveragepricingtrend(Pro)ChinafrontierLLMsaveragepricingtrend(Flash)40.035.030.00.0Input(Rmb/mntoken)-uncachedOutput(Rmb/mntoken)34.64.04.02Q253Q252Q263Q264Q252Q253Q252Q263Q268.04.00.0Output(Rmb/mntoken)Input(Rmb/mntoken)-uncached2Q253Q252Q263Q264Q252Q253Q252Q263Q26Source:Companydata,averagepricesforBytedance,Alibaba,Baidu,Tencent,MiniMax,Z.ai,MoonshotandDeepSeek;UpdatedasofOct15,2026.22180741AIDCspowerdemandas%oftotalFoundationAIApplicationMorganStanleyResearch23AltoolsPersonaluseFoundation2BAIApplication–EarlyAdoptionCasesChinamajortoBAIChinamajortoBAIapplicationscenariosFinancialsAIPortfolioFinancialsAIPortfolioManagementFinancialAdvisorsCreditReviewComplianceCheckInvestmentResearchCustomerServiceEnergy&IndustrialsEnergyUsageAnalyticsEnergyTradingEnhancementLaborSchedulingLeakDetection&TrackEmissionsGeologicalModelsAIToolsforPipelinesE-commerceProductDescription&ImageGenerationCustomerServicesDataAnalysisDemandPredictionInventoryManagementAIHumanModelOfficeDocumentSummaryPPTGenerationKnowledgeBaseEmail/IMSummarySpreadsheetFormulaGenerationHealthcareDevelopmentMedicalImagingPathologyDetectionIdentifyBiomarkersClinicalDecisionSupport(CDSS)AnalysisofGenomicDataPhysicianPointofServiceToolsAdvertisingAdvertising&DigitalContentMarketingEfficiencyEnhancedAdTargetingRecommendationEngineHigherAdConversionAdAuctionDynamicsContentCreationCustomizedTravelItinerariesVidelGameDevelopmentSource:MorganStanleyResearchMorganStanleyResearch27282013:AliCloud,TianyiCloudMorganStanleyResearch29FoundationCompanies30FoundationAnintegratedstack—notonlyowningthelargestChinacloudinfrastructure,butalsoofferingtoptierAImodel(Qwen),tools(Alicloud)andappsneededtobuildagents.(QoderCN)Consumption-centricApplicationsConsumption-centricApplicationsAIagents/codingassistant•Qwenapp•Wukong•AlibabatokenhubCompute,storage,network,securityCompute,storage,network,securityengineering toolchainQwen/WanmodelsthroughBailianGPUcompute,ACKcontainers,network,securityAIengineeringplatformPAI:label,train,optimize,deployandmonitormodelsData,analytics&databases：ApsaraDB/RDS•analytics•datapipelineModelStudio:Bailian,Qwen3.8,Wan,HappyHorse&third-partymodelsMultiyearcloudgrowthSolidROICCloudmarginexpansionQwenARRrampUS$100bncloudrevenuetargetby2030;40-50%CAGRAIcapexyieldsmidteensROICwith<3-yearpaybackExpandingcloudmarginswithhighvisibilityreachinglong-termtargetof20%ARRcurrentlyatRmb20bn+,doubledin3months,expectstoexceedRMB30bn+byyear-endSource:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch6%SOTP(US/share) 41.0041.00Acceleratingprogress-HyfoundationmoAcceleratingprogress-HyfoundationmoLeadinginproductivityAl-WorkBuddy&CInvestinginAlinfrastructure-forint·#1byrevenueMusic√Dubai:launchedfulydriveavailablethroughtNote:1CompanydataasofAugust2020.2CompanydataasofJfirstpermitsforfTriple-digitreve65%200■FoodDeliveryIHT101060vs.Douyin38FoundationZ.AI–FocusingonLLMs-2024A20252026E2027E2028EOn-premisedeploymentCloud-baseddeploymentMiniMax:Omni-modalityplMiniMax:Omni-modalityplayer-10%-20%-8%2024A2025A2026E2027E2028EMaaAppMaaSFoundationMorganStanleyResearch3940Foundation.Foundation20%1MorganStanleyMorganStanleyResearch005