2026年第一季度全球旅游晴雨表 World Tourism Barometer

生

UNTourism

World

Tourism

Barometer

Volume24·Issue2·May2026(Excerpt)(revisedJuly2026)MarketIntelligence,PoliciesandCompetitivenessDepartment

Internationaltourismup2%inQ12026amidgrowinguncertainty

ISSN:1728-9246

RevisedJuly2026

WorldTourismBarometer·May2026(Excerpt)

UNTourism

TheWorldTourismOrganization(UNTourism)istheUnitedNationsspecializedagencymandatedwiththepromotionofresponsible,sustainableanduniversallyaccessibletourism.UNTourism'smembershipincludes160countries,6associatemembers,2permanentobservers,andover500afiliatemembersrepresentingtheprivatesector,educationalinstitutions,tourismassociationsandlocaltourismauthorities.

Copyrighto2026,WorldTourismOrganization(UNTourism)

WorldTourismBarometer(UNTourism)

ISSN:1728-9246

Volume24,issue2,May2026(version21/07/26)

PublishedandprintedbytheWorldTourismOrganization,Madrid,Spain

Firstpublishedvolume:2003Volume24published:2026Allrightsreserved.

WorldTourismOrganization(UNTourism)Tel.:(+34)915678100

C/PoetaJoanMaragall4Website:28020Madrid,SpainE-mail:info@

ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialinthispublcationdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionswhatsoeveronthepartoftheSecretariatoftheWorldTourismOrganizationconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorarea,orofitsauthoritiesorconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.

TheWorldTourismOrganization(UNTourism)doesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.Thementionofspecific

companiesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyare

endorsedorrecommendedbytheWorldTourismOrganization(UNTourism)inpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.

AllpublicationsoftheWorldTourismOrganization(UNTourism)areprotectedbycopyright.Therefore,andunlessotherwisespecified,nopartofapublicationoftheWorldTourismOrganization(UNTourism)maybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystemorutilizedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanical,includingphotocopying,microfilm,scanning,withoutpriorpermissioninwriting.TheWorldTourismOrganization(UNTourism)encouragesdisseminationofitsworkandispleasedtoconsiderpermissions,licensing,andtranslationrequestsrelatedtoitspublications.

PermissiontophotocopymaterialfromtheWorldTourismOrganizationinSpainmustbeobtainedthrough:

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or

/un-tourism-publications.

Thecontentsofthisissuemaybequoted,providedthesourceisgivenaccuratelyandclearly.Distributionorreproductioninfullispermittedforownorinternaluseonly.Pleasedonotpostelectroniccopiesonpubliclyaccessiblewebsites.UNTourismencouragesyoutoincludealinkto

/market-intelligence.

Recommendedcitation:

WorldTourismOrganization(2025),WorldTourismBarometer,volume24,issue2,May2026,UNTourism,Madrid,

DOI:

https://doi.orq/10.18111/wtobarometereng

AbouttheWorldTourismBarometer

TheWorldTourismBarometerisapublicationoftheWorldTourismOrganization(UNTourism)thatmonitorsshort-termtourismtrendsonaregularbasistoprovideglobaltourismstakeholderswithup-to-dateanalysisoninternationaltourism.

Theinformationisupdatedseveralimesayearandincludesananalysisofthelatestdataontourismdestinations(inboundtourism)andsourcemarkets(outboundtourism).TheBarometeralsoincludesthreetimesayearaConfidenceIndexbasedontheUNTourismPanelofExpertssurvey,whichprovidesanevaluationofrecentperformanceandshort-termprospectsoninternationaltourism.

TheUNTourismSecretariatwishestoexpressitsgratitudetothosewhohavecontributedtotheproductionofthisWorldTourismBarometer,inparticulartoinstitutionsthatsupplieddata,andtothemembersoftheUNTourismPanelofExpertsfortheirvaluablefeedbackandanalysis.

ThisreportwaspreparedbytheMarketIntelligence,PoliciesandCompetitivenessDepartmentunderthesupervisionofSandraCarvao,DirectoroftheDepartment.Authorsinclude(inalphabeticalorder):FernandoAlonso,MichelJulianandJavierRuescas.Datawascompiled

fromtheTourismMarketIntelligenceDatabaseandtheTourismStatisticsDatabasebasedonofficialcountrysources.

Formoreinformationincludingcopiesofpreviousissues,pleasevisit:

/loitobarometereng.

Wewelcomeyourcommentsandsuggestionsat:

barom@.

Datacollectionforthisissuewascompletedon20May2026,withrevisionsincludedon20July2026.

ThenextissueoftheWorldTourismBarometerwithmorecomprehensiveresultsisscheduledtobepublishedinSeptember2026.

Pages1-6ofthisdocumentconstitutetheExcerptoftheWorldTourismBarometer.ThefulldocumentisavailablefreeofchargeforUNTourismMembersandsubscribersfromtheUNTourismElibraryat

.This

releaseisavailableinEnglish

,

while

theStatisticalAnnexisprovidedinEnglish,FrenchandSpanish.

UNTourism

WorldTourismBarometer·May2026(Excerpt

Inboundtourism

Internationaltouristarrivalsgrew2%inJanuary-March2026

·Internationaltouristarrivals(overnightvisitors)increasedby2%inthefirstquarterof2026,comparedtothesameperiodin2025.

·Anestimated307milliontouriststravelledinternationallyinQ12026,about6millionmorethaninQ12025.

·Whilethestartoftheyearsawsustainedtraveldemandoverall(+2.5%cumulativegrowthinJanuaryandFebruary),theMiddleEastconfictimpactedperformanceinMarch.

·Internationalarrivalsgrew2%inJanuaryand3%inFebruary,butwereflatinMarch(+0.4%)partlyduetoa37%declineintheMiddleEast,theregionmostimpactedbytheconflict,andslowerthanexpectedgrowthinAsiaandthePacific.

·Followingtheoutbreakoftheconflicton28February2026,internationaltourismintheMiddleEastwasimpactedbyairspacerestrictions,operationaldisruptionsandsignificantuncertainty.

·AsapivotalairtravelcorridorbetweenAsia,AfricaandEurope,theMiddleEastplaysacriticalroleinglobalairconnectivity,withdisruptionsaffectingnotonlydestinationsintheMiddleEast,butinternationaltravelpatternsmorebroadly.

InternationalTouristArrivals(%changeoverprevousyear)

EuropeandAfricasawthestrongestperformanceinQ12026

·Byregion,EuropeandAfrica(both+4%)recordedthestrongestperformanceinQ12026,comparedtothefirstquarterof2025,followedbyAsiaandthePacific(+3%)andtheAmericas(+2%).TheMiddleEastsawadeclineof14%inarrivalsthisfirstquarter.

·Europe,theworld'slargestdestinationregion,sawover130millioninternationaltouristsinQ12026,a4%increase,buildingonthestrongmomentumof2025(+5%).SomeEuropeandestinationsbenefitedfromtheredirectionoftourismflowsinMarch.SouthernMediterraneanEuropeandNorthernEuropebothsawa4%increaseinarrivalsinQ12026,whileCentralEasternEurope(+6%)consolidateditsrebound.

·ArrivalsinAfricaalsogrew4%inQ12026,withbothNorthAfricaandSubsaharanAfricarecordinga4%increaseinarrivalsthisquarter.NorthAfricasawastrong18%increaseinMarch,withdouble-digitgrowthinTunisia(+26%)andMorocco(+18%).

InSubsaharanAfrica,somedestinationsincludingSouthAfrica(+12%)recordeddouble-digitgrowththisquarter.Othershowever,wereaffectedbyconnectivityissuesrelatedtotheMiddleEastconflictinMarch,particularlyislanddestinations.Seychellessawa37%declineinMarchmostlyduetoreducedaircapacityfromMiddleEastemcarriers.Mauritiusrecorded7%growthinQ12026,though1%inthemonthofMarch.

WorldEuropeAsiaAmericasAfrica

PacificEast

Source:UNTourism(May2026)*Provisionaldata

·AsiaandthePacificrecorded3%growththisfirstquarter,somewhatlowerthanexpectedduetomixedperfomanceamongdestinations.A2%declineinJanuarywasfollowedbyastrongreboundinFebruary(+9%)andthenmodestgrowthinMarch(+2%)duetoa27%declineinSouthAsiawhichsufferedfromthedisruptionsinMiddleEasternairhubs.Oceania(+9%)andNorth-EastAsia(+5%)sawparticularlyrobustresultsinQ12026.ArrivalsinAsiaremained11%belowpre-pandemicvalues(89%ofQ12019levels).

·TheAmericasrecorded2%moreinternationalarrivalsinQ12026,withmixedresultsacrosssubregions.NorthAmerica,whichaccountsforover60%oftheregion'sarrivals,grew2%thisquarter,ledbyMexico(+7%).CentralAmericasawastrong18%increase,compensatingforweakerresultsintheCaribbean(+0.2%)andSouthAmerica(-1%).

WorldTourismBarometer·May2026(Excerpt)

·IntheMiddleEastinternationalarrivalsdropped14%inQ12026,impactedbytheconflictintheregion.SeveralGulfdestinationsrecordedstrongdeclines,whileEgypt(+16%)sawarobustincrease.Thisfollowsastrongreboundafterthepandemic,witharrivalsin

2025climbing40%above2019levelsintheMiddleEast.

·Amongdestinationsreportinggrowthinarrivalsinthefirstthreemonthsof2026,thebestperformersgloballyinclude:Paraguay(+46%),NewCaledonia(+45%),EISalvador(+43%),Mongolia(+39%),Palau(+37%),

Uzbekistan(+37%),Tonga(+25%),Anguilla(+25%),Ireland(+24%)andBrunei(+23%).

·Intermsofreceipts,severalcountriesreporteddouble-digitgrowthinQ12026,amongwhichPakistan(+60%),theRepublicofKorea(+38%),Mongolia(+27%),Morocco(+24%),Brunei(+22%),Samoa

(+14%),Brazil(+12%),Germany,Romania(both+9%)andEgypt(+8%).

Keytravelindustryindicators

·AccordingtoIATA,internationalairtrafficgrew4%inQ12026,measuredinrevenuepassenger-kilometres(RPKs),withpositiveperformanceacrossallregions,excepttheMiddleEast(-16%).AirtrafficdeclinedmodestlyinMarch(-1%RPKs),largelyduetoamajorcontractionamongMiddleEasterncarriers(-61%).

·African,AsiaPacificandEuropeancarriersrecordedstrongergrowth,aspassengerflowsweredivertedawayfromMiddleEasternhubs.

·Internationalaircapacity(measuredinavailableseat-kilometresorASKs)increased2%inQ12026,withacontractionof6%inMarchalsolargelyduetoa57%dropintheMiddleEast,accordingtoIATA.

·Globaloccupancyinaccommodationestablishmentsreached64%inMarch2026,matchingthelevelsofMarch2025.Europe,theAmericasandAsiaPacificrecordedthehighestoccupancyrates(all65%),followedbyAfrica(56%)andtheMiddleEast(48%)basedonSTRdata.

·HoteloccupancyintheMiddleEastdeclinedto48%inMarchfrom75%inJanuary.

TheMiddleEastcrisisandrisingtravelcostsamongmajorconcernsexpressedbytourismexperts

·AccordingtothelatestsurveyofthePanelofTourismExperts,theMiddleEastconflict,hightransportandaccommodationcostsaswellasothereconomicfactorsarethethreemainchallengesinternationaltourismisfacingin2026.

·AlmosttwothirdsofPanelExperts(64%)indicatedthattheMiddleEastconflictisnegativelyaffectingdemandfortheirdestination,ofwhich43%considertheimpacttobemoderateand21%high.Another36%mentionedtheconflictishavinglittleornoimpactondemand.

·Around61%ofexpertssaidtheMiddleEastconflictisreducinginboundtourismtotheirdestinationforvariousreasons.Some25%mentionedtravelcosts,19%travelerconcernsand/ordisruptionsinair,roadormaritimetraffic;while17%referredtolowerairtransportcapacity.

·Conversely,17%ofexpertsexpressedthattheirdestinationiswitnessinganincreaseininboundtourismbecauseofdisruptionsinotherdestinations.Around14%indicatedanincreaseindomestictourismattheexpenseofoutboundtourism.Some9%mentionedthereiscurrentlynodropinvisitorsbutnoticedadeclineinbookingsforthecomingmonths.

CautiousoptimismforupcomingNorthernHemispheresummerseason

·ThelatestUNTourismConfidenceIndexreflectscautiouslypositiveprospectsfortheperiodMay-August2026,amidachallenginggeopoliticalenvironment.ThisperiodincludesthesummerseasonintheNorthernHemisphere.

·Onascaleof0to200(where100indicatesequalexpectedperformance),expertsgaveprospectsforMay-August2026ascoreof105,belowthe117scoreforJanuary-April2026recordedinJanuarythisyear.Intermsofpastperformance,expertsgaveJanuary-Aprilascoreof106,wellbelowtheirexpectations(117)atthebeginningoftheyear

·Around39%ofPanelexpertsindicatedbetter(34%)ormuchbetter(5%)expectedperformancethis4-monthperiod,while28%foreseesimilarperfomancethaninthesameperiodof2025.Some31%expecttourismperfomancetobeworseormuchworse.

WorldTourismBarometer·May2026(Excerpt

5

UNTourism

·Expertshighlightedtheuncertaintyofthescopeanddurationoftheconfict.Flightdisruptions,thesurgeinoilpricesandthepotentialshortageofjetfuel,areconsequencesoftheconflictthatcouldimpacttravelcosts,overallinflation,bookingsandtravelsentiment.

UNTourismConfidenceIndex:World

2019

2022

2023

2024

2025T2

175

Better150

125Equal100

75

Worse

25

0

FAPF

120

106

——Prospects(before)

Evaluation(after)

PF

Source:WorldTourismOrganization(UNTourism)

·ThedisruptionofshippingthroughtheStraitofHormuzhascausedasurgeinoilprices,particularlyjetfueloilprices,whichremainhighlyvolatile.Thisisleadingtohighertransportpricesinacontextofalreadyelevatedservicesinflation,includingtravelservices,whichisexertingpressureondemand.

·Theuncertaintysurroundingthecrisishasshifteddestinationpreferencesandforcedairlinestorerouteorcancelthousandsofflights.Againstthisbackdrop,touristsareexpectedtocontinuetoseekvalueformoneybutcouldalsotravelclosertohomeanddomesticallyinresponsetoelevatedprices.

TheconflictintheMiddleEastcouldreducegrowthininternationalarrivalsin2026

·Theconflictisexpectedtoreducegrowthininternationalarrivalsby1to2percentagepointsin2026,belowUNTourism'sinitialforecastof3%to4%,dependingontheconflict'sdurationandscope.

·Asidefromdisruptionsinflightsto,fromandwithintheMiddleEastandeffectsontravelerconfidence,thespikeinoilpricesandjetfuelshortageinsomemarketsisincreasingairfaresandreducingflightcapacityalsoinotherregions.

·Moreexpensivetravelcoupledwithuncertaintyaboutairconnectionscouldtranslateintoaredirectionoftourismflowstowardscloserdestinationsbutcouldalsoaffectoveralldemand.

·ThishappensinacontextwhereglobaleconomicgrowthisprojectedtoslowdownduetheeffectsoftheconflictintheMiddleEast.

·AccordingtoIMF'slatestWorldEconomicOutlook(April2026),theconflictintheMiddleEastthreatenstodisruptgrowthandtherecenttrendofdisinflation.Assumingthattheconflictremainslimitedindurationandscope,globaleconomicgrowthcouldslowto3.1%in2026and3.2%in2027.Globalheadlineinflationisprojectedtorisemodestlyin2026,duetotheriseinoilprices,beforeresumingitsdeclinein2027.

·InitsWESP2026Mid-YearUpdate,theUNDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs(UNDESA)projectstheglobaleconomytogrow2.9%in2026(downfrom3.1%expectedinJanuary),and3.3%in2027(calculatedusingPPPweights,likeIMF).

●IntheAmericas,Canada,theUnitedStatesandMexicocouldbenefitfromhostingthe2026FIFAWorldCupnextJune11thtoJuly19th.

WorldTourismBarometer·May2026(Excerpt)

UNTourism

InternationalTouristArrivalsby(Sub)region

(Percentchangesareyearoveryear)

(millions)

Change(%)

(%)

MonthlylquarterlydataChange(%)

2026over2025*

2019202020212022202320242025*2025*23/2224/2325/24*YTDQ1Jan.Feb.Mar.

World1,469

Advancedeconomies¹778

Emergingeconomies¹691

ByUNTounismregions:

Europe746.0

NorthernEurope83.9WesternEurope205.2Central/EasternEur152.8Southern/Medit.Eur.304.2

-ofwhichEU-27541.1

AsiaandthePacific362.7

North-EastAsia170.3

South-EastAsia138.6

Oceania17.5

SouthAsia36.3

Americas219.2

NorthAmerica146.6

Caribbean26.0

CentralAmerica10.9

SouthAmenica35.6

Africa69.6

NorthAfrica25.6

SubsaharanAfrica44.0

MiddleEast71.6

413

221

192

246.4

23.7

83.5

50.8

88.4

188.8

58.9

20.3

25.5

3.6

9.6

69.5

46.5

10.1

3.1

9.8

19.1

5.6

13.5

19.4

468

240

228

309.7

21.9

87.6

61.3

138.9

229.8

26.7

10.9

3.3

0.9

11.7

81.5

57.2

14.2

4.7

5.4

20.1

6.6

13.5

30.5

990

546

444

625.0

67.1

183.3

109.4

265.3

467.3

93.4

20.5

42.3

6.8

23.8

157.1

101.9

23.6

9.3

22.3

47.0

19.3

27.7

68.0

1,3361,472

719783

618689

729.3772.1

81.185.2208.5216.2131.4140.3308.3330.5541.4569.1248.9312.7

05.438.898.6122.712.914.4

32.036.8

200.0216.6126.6137.228.129.911.512.933.736.5

64.774.3

27.931.9

36.842.4

93.496.6

1,546

815

731

809.6

85.6

227.4

152.4

344.1

598.5

336.5

158.9

125.2

15.4

37.0

219.7

135.9

30.1

13.7

40.1

79.6

35.3

44.3

100.1

100

52.7

47.3

52.4

5.5

14.7

9.9

22.3

38.7

21.8

10.3

8.1

1.0

2.4

14.2

8.8

1.9

0.9

2.6

5.1

2.3

2.9

6.5

34.9

31.5

39.1

16.7

20.8

13.7

20.2

16.2

15.9

166.6

414.1

133.0

91.0

34.4

27.3

24.3

19.4

24.5

50.9

37.8

44.9

32.9

37.4

10.25.01.88.94.13.4

11.66.00.2

5.94.94.0 5.10.64.1 3.75.22.1 6.88.76.2 7.24.14.3 5.15.23.125.67.62.931.714.54.724.42.11.111.46.89.215.20.5-1.3 8.31.42.1 8.4-1.02.0 6.40.40.211.86.118.0 8.49.8-0.814.97.04.214.510.53.815.24.44.5

3.43.7-13.9

1.8

3.4

0.2

4.0

4.1

2.1

6.2

4.3

3.1