2026为智能而建：AI如何重塑亚太办公楼市场研究报告

theAsiapacifc

OCTOBER2026

IntroductionwhatcanAIdo?JobsvstasksJobexposuretoAIJobgrowthandofficedemandgrowthconclusion

Introduction

Theadoptionofartificialintelligence(AI)isnolongeraprediction;itisalreadystartingtoreshapethe

corporatelandscape·

Asinotherregions,thetechnologyisbeginningtoimpacttheAsiapacificlabourmarket,drivingadualwaveofrapidproductivitygainsandstructuraldisruption.Fearsofwidespread,largescaleunemploymenthaveyettomaterialise,however,withadoptionthusfarcharacterisedbytasktransformationandshifting

occupationalcomposition.

TheintegrationofAIintowhite-collarworkplacesinevitablyraisesquestionsoverthefutureofcommercialofficedemand.whileAImaysomewhatmoderatefutureofficeabsorption,CBREbelievesitsmostsignificantimpactwillbetopolarisetheregionalofficemarket.

Asroutineandadministrativetasksbecomeincreasinglyautomated,demandisexpectedtoconcentrateinhigh-qualityofficebuildingsthatsupportknowledge-intensive,collaborativeandclientfacingwork.Incontrast,olderandless

competitiveassetsarelikelytofaceincreasingpressureasoccupiersplace

greateremphasisonconnectivityandbuildingqualitytoattractandretaintalent.

ThiscBREreportaddressestheseandotherissuesbyanalysinghowAIwill

reshapetheoffice-basedemploymentmarketinAsiapacificandidentifyingtheimplicationsforcommercialrealestatedemandandsupply·

IntelligentInvestmentBuiltforIntelligence:HowAIisRedefiningtheAsiaPacificOffice

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IntroductionwhatcanAIdo?JobsvstasksJobexposuretoAIJobgrowthandofficedemandgrowthconclusion

SCENARIOSBasecase:NOAljobdisplacement(Al'sproductivityeffectonemploymentincluded)

Moderate:vulnerableofficejobsaredisplacedatamoderatepace

(Allgrowthratesarecumulative)

01JOBSATRISK

Limited

jobdisplacementrisk

<2%

ofregionalemployment

comprisesvulnerableofficejobstobefullydisplaced

90.3%

1.8%

7.9%

vulnerablepotentialriskothers

vulnerable:HighAIexposure

andlowcapacitytoadapt

potentialrisk:HighAIexposurebuthighcapacitytoadapt

02OFFICEEMPLOYMENT

slowerbutpositive

employmentgrowth

growthinofficejobsisprojected

for2026-30Fifvulnerableofficejobsaremoderatelydisplaced

20%

14%

2020-25

Moderate

Basecase

2026-30F

03OFFICEDEMAND

Growthofoccupiedspacewilloutgrowoficejobs

OFFICEJOBS

OCCUPIEDSPACE

13%

In2026-3OFundermoderatescenario

portfoliosrebalanceasoccupiedspacegrowthhaslaggedjobsinpastfewyears

18%

20%

13%

2020-252026-30

Moderate

occupiedspaceofficejobs

04NEWSUPPLY

Newsupplyiseasing

3.2%

annualcompletionsin2028F

asapercentageofQ42027stock

Downfrom5.3%

inpre-pandemic2019

Demanduncertainty

andhighconstructioncostscurbnewprojects

05VACANCY

vacancyrate

willremaincontained

3-4ppt

increaseinvacancyby203OFinthemoderatescenario

vsthebasecase

18%

15%

BasecaseModerate

2030F

AddedvacancyfromAljobdisplacement

Note:supplyreferstoannualcompletionsasashareofthepreviousyear'sfourthquarterstock,usingGradeAdataforHongkongsAR,seoul,kualaLumpurandIndiaandtotalgradedataforothermarkets.source:CBREResearch,2026.

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Introduction

contents

Introduction

2

keyfigures

3

whatcanAIdo?Jobsvstasks

whatcanAIdo?Jobsvstasks

5

JobexposuretoAI

JobcxposurctoAI

Jobgrowthandofficedemandgrowth

Jobgrowthand

officedemandgrowth

17

conclusion

conclusion

IntroductionwhatcanAIdo?JobsvstasksJobexposuretoAIJobgrowthandofficedemandgrowthconclusion

whatcanAIdo?

Jobsvstasks

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IntroductionwhatcanAIdo?JobsvstasksJobexposuretoAIJobgrowthandofficedemandgrowthconclusion

JobsvsTasks:

whatistheroleofAI?

sincethelaunchofchatGPTinlate2022,AIadoptionhasgrownatanunprecedentedpace.

GenerativeAItoolssuchasclaude,GeminiandDeepseekhaveachievedrapiduptakeonthebackoftheirabilitytoenableuserstoperformcomplexcognitivetasksthroughnatural-languageinstructions.AsofMay2026,45%of

employeesintheu.s.reportedusinggenerativeAIatwork,accordingtotheHarvardprojectonworkforce.

TheacceleratingadoptionofAIhasinevitablyfuelled

concernsthatthetechnologycouldresultinthelargescaledisplacementofwhite-collarworkers.However,CBRE

believestherelationshipbetweenAIcapabilityand

employmentisextremelynuanced.whileAIcanperformatasktraditionallyundertakenbyhumans,itdoesnotmeanthatAIcanperformanentireoccupation.Thescopeofjobshasalwaysbeeninastateoffluxastechnologyadvances·

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IntroductionwhatcanAIdo?JobsvstasksJobexposuretoAIJobgrowthandofficedemandgrowthconclusion

JobsvsTasks:

whatistheroleofAI?

TasksvsJobs

Distinguishingbetweentasksandjobsiscritical.Tasksareindividualunitsofwork,whilejobsoroccupationsinvolve

missionsandvisionsthatrequirejudgement,coordination,stakeholdermanagement,accountabilityandrelationship

building.Humancommunicationiscomplex;itgoesbeyondtheexecutionofaspecifiedsetoftaskstoaccommodate

non-verbalcuesandlonger-termgoals.

AIcapabilityisimprovingrapidlyandcanincreasingly

performexpert-leveltasks.Inseptember2025,openAI'SAlevaluationbenchmarkGDpvalpublished"EvaluatingAl

modelperformanceonrealworldeconomicallyvaluable

tasks".Thestudyfoundthatleadingfrontiermodelscan

matchorexceedhumanperformanceinselectedactivitiesacrossoccupationssuchasediting,softwaredevelopment,andfinancialadvisoryservices.However,thestudyalso

observedthatwhenpairedwithhumanoversight,AImodelscouldcompletetasksfasterandatlowercosts,pointingtotheimportanceofaugmentingknowledgeworkers.

Evolutionoftasksalongwithtechnologicaladvancement

Thehistoryofwritingdemonstratesthatwhiletechnologicalprogresscanchangethenatureofwork,itdoesnot

eliminateitaltogether.Innovationssuchastypewriters,wordprocessors,and,morerecently,Al-powereddraftingtools

haveincreasedtheefficiencyofthewritingprocess.

However,theoriginality,creativityandcriticalthinkinginthewritingprocessremaininhumanhands.

ThisdistinctionsuggeststhatAIshouldbeviewedprimarilyasaproductivityenhancingtechnologyratherthanadirectsubstituteforlabour.whilecertaintaskswillbecome

increasinglyautomated,humanjudgement,creativity,collaboration,andrelationshipmanagementwill

remaincrucial.

Task(Thesmallstep):

Ataskisasingle,functionalunitofwork

calligraphy

Typewriting

wordprocessing

Algeneratedreport

Job(TheBigpicture):

Aspecificrolethathasabroadsetofresponsibilities

Information

literarycultivation

Description

Theory/thinking

Expression

Inspiration

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IntroductionwhatcanAIdo?JobsvstasksJobexposuretoAIJobgrowthandofficedemandgrowthconclusion

AIsparksfears

ofoffcejobdisruption

TheraftofspeculativeheadlineslinkingAItojobcutshas

fuelledconcernsthatalargevolumeofwhitecollarjobs

couldbecomeredundant.Jobdataintheu.s,amarket

viewedasaleadingindicatoroftechnologicaldisruption,

showanincreasingnumberofAI-drivenredundancies.since2023,when4,000jobcutscitedAIasakeyfactor,

companieshaveattributedmorethan180,000layoffstoadoptionofthetechnology.

However,thesefigurestellonlypartofthestory.Thecumulativetotalof180,000overthepastthreeyears

amountstoonlyaround0.1%ofu.s.totalemployment.TheU.s.unemploymentratestoodat4.1%inAugust2026,

broadlyconsistentwiththeaveragerecordedinthepastthreeyears.

ThereisthereforelittleevidencesofartoprovethatAladoptionisleadingtothematerialdeteriorationoftheoverallu.s.labourmarket.

since2023,when4,000jobcutscitedAIasakeyfactor,companieshaveattributedmorethan

layoffstoadoptionofthetechnology

Thecumulativetotalof180,000overthepastthreeyearsamountstoonlyaround

0.1%

ofu.s.totalemployment

FIGURE1:

Numberofu.s.Jobcutssince2023citingAlasaReason

source:ThechallengerReport,challenger,Gray&christmasInc,october2026.

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IntroductionwhatcanAIdo?JobsvstasksJobexposuretoAIJobgrowthandofficedemandgrowthconclusion

AIappearstobehaving

abiggerimpactonjuniorroles

AlthoughtheimpactofAIonoverallemploymenthassofarbeenlimited,earlysignssuggeststhatentrylevelandjuniorrolesaremoreexposed.Thesepositionstypicallyinvolveahigherconcentrationofroutine,process-driventasksthat

areeasilertoautomate.

youthunemploymentrates(age15-24)havebeen

structurallyhighertheoverallunemploymentratesacrossalleconomies,evenbeforetheintroductionofAI.Reasonsforthisincludeyoungeremployees'limitedexperienceandlackofdirectionabouthowtostarttheircareer.

RecentevidencesuggestsAImaybeamplifyingthistrend.Astanforduniversitystudyfoundthatu.s.employment

growthamongyoungworkersaged22to25inA-exposedoccupations,includingsoftwareengineeringandcustomerservice,was20%lowerthanthegrowthofjobsthatarelessAl-exposed.Thisgapwidenedfrom15%inJuly2025to20%inJuly2026.

whilenosimilarstudieshaveyetbeenconductedin

Asiapacific,jobopeningsforuniversitygraduatesin

HongkongsARfellfrom80,000in2022tojust31,000in2025,accordingtotheJointInstitutionsJobInformationsystem,anonlineplatformforstudentsin

Hongkong'suniyersities.

Recentuniversitygraduatesaremoreaffectedbythe

implementationofAIbecauseuniversityprogrammeshavenotyetadjustedtohelpgraduatesdevelopAljobskills,andcompaniesareslowinghiringandreassessingtheir

workforcestructure,particularlytheneedforjuniorroles.

However,thistrendisstillevolvingasuniversity

programmesarebeingredesignedtobetterequipyoung

professionalswithAl-enhancedskills.FuturegraduatesmaythereforebemoreresilientastheywilldevelopAl

capabilitiesoverthedurationoftheireducationandearlystageoftheircareer.

FIGURE2:

comparisonofLatestunemploymentRateforoverallandyouthpopulation

Latestunemploymentrate(%)

overallyouth

5.2

Mainlandchina

5.1

India

4.5

10.4

Australia

3.7

8.4

HongkongsAR

2.7

5.42.4

3.41.9

korea

Japan

6.2

singapore

U.S.

4.9

16.2

UK

Note:youthunemploymentdefinitionsvarybetween

marketsbutingeneralyouthisdefinedasage1524.India,koreaandsingaporeyouthunemploymentreferstoage

under30.

source:variousstatisticsdepartments,2026.

FIGURE3:

changeinu.s.HeadcountAmongyouthpopulationsinceNovember2022byoccupationalAIExposure

EmploymentIndex(NOV2022=100)

Leastexposedoccupationgroupyouth Mostexposedoccupationgroup-youth

Note:dataasofJuly2026

source:stanfordDigitalEconomyLab,ADPResearch,Eloundouetal.(2024),CBREResearch,2026.

IntroductionwhatcanAIdo?JobsvstasksJobexposuretoAIJobgrowthandofficedemandgrowthconclusion

JobexposuretoAI

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IntroductionwhatcanAIdo?JobsvstasksJobexposuretoAIJobgrowthandofficedemandgrowthconclusion

MeasuringexposuretoAIandthecapacitytoadapt

CBRE'sevaluationofAsiapacificworkforcevulnerabilitytoAIdrawsontwocomplementaryacademicframeworks.

ThefirstistheAIExposurescore,developedinthe

universityofchicago's"GPTsareGPTS:LabourMarketImpactpotentialofLLMS",whichestimatestheshareoftaskswithinanoccupationthatAIcanassistwith

orautomate.

ThesecondistheAdaptivecapacityscore,basedontheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch's"HOWAdaptable

AreAmericanworkerstoAf-InducedJobDisplacement?",whichmeasureshowworkerscanrespondtodisruptionthroughfactorssuchastransferableskills,financial

resilience,accesstoalternativeemploymentandage.

Bothmeasuresarecriticalbecauseexposurealone

overstatesdisplacementrisk.staffcanberetrained,moveintoadjacentrolesortransitionintonewoccupationsaslabourdemandsevolve.Together,thesetwoindicators

provideaframeworkforassessingAl-related

workforcevulnerability.

FIGURE4:

MethodologytoBuildAIExposureandcapacityscores

AIExposurescore

whatitmeasuresTheshareofanoccupation'stasksthataGPT4classlargelanguagemodel(LLM)could

plausiblyassistwith.ItcapturesthepotentialforAItochangeajob,notaforecastofdisplacement.

Howitiscalculated(Eloundouetal,2024)

Taskmapping

Eachoccupation'staskscomefromo*NET,theu.s.DepartmentofLabour'sdatabase

ofstandardisedjobactivities

LLMcapabilityrating

ResearchersratedwhetherGPT4coulddoeachtaskfully,partiallyornotatall.

occupation-levelscore

Taskratingsaggregateintoasinglescoreforeachoccupation.

scorerange:o(Notaskexposed)1(Alltasksexposed)

Adaptivecapacityscore

whatitmeasuresHowwell-placedworkersinanoccupationaretofindnewwork,andtoabsorbthefinancialcost,iftheirjobdisappears.

Howitiscalculatedfourequal-weightedcomponents)

Netliquidwealth

Mediansavings,excludinghome,vehicleandbusinessequity,andnetofdebt.Moresavingsbuys

alongerjobsearch.

skilltransferability

cosinesimilarityofo*NETskillprofilestoother

occupations,weightedbyBLsjobgrowthprojections.

Geographicdensity

Employment-weightedaverageoflocallabourmarketdensity.Densermarketsmeanmoreoptions.

Age,shareaged55+

Ahighershareofolderworkerslowersthescore.olderworkerstakelongertogetrehired.

scorerange:o(Lowestcapacity)1(Highestcapacity)

Note:ExposurebenchmarkstasksagainstGPT4,followingEloundouetal.(2024).currentfrontiermodels,

includingopenAI'SGPT6AstraandAnthropic'sclaudeFable,areconsiderablymorecapablethanGPT-4was.source:Manning,s.J,&Aguirre,T.(2026),CBREResearch,october2026.

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IntroductionwhatcanAIdo?JobsvstasksJobexposuretoAIJobgrowthandofficedemandgrowthconclusion

Highexposureandlowadaptive

jobsaremostvulnerabletodisplacement

ToassessoccupationalvulnerabilityacrossAsiapacific,

CBREstandardisedregionalemploymentdatabymappingAIExposureandAdaptivecapacityscorestothe

Internationalstandardclassificationofoccupations(ISCO)frameworkandderivingweighted-averagescoresforeachoccupationalgroup.

cognitiveandoffice-basedoccupationstendtohavemuchhigherAIexposurewhilephysicalrolessuchasdrivers,

factoryworkersandagriculturallabourers,generallyexhibitlowAIexposure.

ThemostsignificantfindingisthatexposuretoAIdoesnotnecessarilytranslateintojobdisruption.whileAIexposureishighamongInformationandcommunicationstechnology

(ICT)professionals,businessprofessionalsandmanagers,

theseworkerspossessthestrongestcapacitytoadapt.

Highereducationalattainment,transferableskillsand

greatercareermobilitymeanAIismorelikelytoaugmenttheirworkthanreplaceit.

Thegreatestdisplacementriskisconcentratedinclericalandadministrativeoccupationsasalargershareoftheirworkconsistsofroutine,process-driventasksthatare

easiertoautomateandhardertoredeploy.

CBRE'sassessmentisthatAlismorelikelytotransformandredefinejobsratherthanreplacethemcompletely.

TheAsiapacificlabourmarketofthefutureislikelyto

favourworkerswhocaneffectivelycollaboratewithAIwhileleveraginguniquehumancapabilitiessuchasjudgement,

creativity,leadershipandrelationships.

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IntroductionwhatcanAIdo?JobsvstasksJobexposuretoAIJobgrowthandofficedemandgrowthconclusion

Highexposureandlowadaptivejobsaremostvulnerabletodisplacement

FIGURE5:

U.s.JobAIExposureandAdaptivecapacityscoresbyoccupationalGroup

vulnerable

Exposure>0.75Adaptivecapacity<0.25

potentialRisk

Exposure>0.75Adaptivecapacity>0.25

0.75

0.5

0.25

scienceandengineering

chiefexecutives,seniorprofessionals

Informationandcommunicationstechnology(ICT)professionals

ICTTechnicians

Healthprofessionals/

Businessandadministrationprofessionals

Hospitalitymanagers

Administrativeandcommercialmanagers

productionmanagers

Legalassociate

Electricaland

Healthassociate

electronictradesworkers

protectiveservicesworkersLegalprofessionals

Businessassociate

associateprofessionals

scienceandengineeringTeachingprofessionals

customerservicesclerks

Numericalandmaterialrecordingclerks

salesworkers

personalcareworkers

personalserviceworkersHandicraftand

printingworkers

Buildingworkers

MachineryworkersFoodpreparation

Marketorientedskilledagriculturalworkers

LabourersRefuseworkersand

otherelementaryworkers

subsistencefarmers,fishers,huntersandgatherers

InsurancesalesagentsGovinterviewers

otherclericalsupportworkers

officeclerks

Agriculturallabourers

propertyappraisersDoor-to-doorsales

craftworkers

Drivers

Generalandkeyboardclerks

Marketorientedskilledforestry,fisheryandhuntingworkers

plantoperators

Taxagents

cleanersAssemblers

Municipalclerks

streetandrelatedsalesandserviceworkers

Administrativeassistants

Lessexposed0.250.50.75Moreexposed

Note:Forillustrativepurposesonly.Theanalysiscovers356occupations,groupedinto40Internationalstandardclassificationofoccupations(ISCO)groups.Bubblesoutsidetheredboxshowemploymentweightedaveragescoresforeachgroup.Bubblesinsidetheredboxshowindividualoccupations,plottedseparatelytoidentifythemostvulnerableroles;theseoccupationsalsositwithintheirparentgroupsshownelsewhereonthechart.Bubblesizerepresentsemployment.

source:Manning,s.J.,&Aguirre,T.(2026),USBureauofLaborstatistics,CBREResearch,october2026.

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IntroductionwhatcanAIdo?JobsvstasksJobexposuretoAIJobgrowthan