高盛-澳大利亚散货、基本金属、稀土及钢铁：覆盖总结、预测与现货定价情景

GSAustralianBulks,BaseMetals,RareEarths,&Steels

CoverageSummary,Forecasts,andSpotPricingScenarios

November2026Pricedasof6November2026

PaulYoung

GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd

+61293218302

paul.young1@

ChrisBulgin

GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd

+61293218936

chris.bulgin@

HugoNicolaci

GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd

+61293218323

hugo.nicolaci@

MarcusDosanjh

GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd

+61293218780

marcus.dosanjh@

KavyaBalaji

GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd

+61396791126

kavya.balaji@

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswith

FINRAintheU.S.

CoverageSummary

Buy:BHP,BSL,CIA,ILU,LYC&RIO

Sell:FMG,NHC

Priced:6-Nov-26

LastPriceA$/sh

TickerGSRatingKeyCommodities

Market

Cap

US$bn

BHPBuyCu/Fe/MetCoal/Potash208.859.0

12mthPriceTarget

Upside/A$/shDownside

%

65.711%

NAVValuation

NAVP/NAVA$/sh(x)

67.90.87x

NTMEV/EBITDAValuation

CurrentApplied

A$/shMultipleTarget

(GSe)Multiple

63.56.97.5x

M&A

GSeA$/sh

-

NTM

FCF

Yield

NTMDivYield

TSR

4%15%5%

RIOBuy

Fe/Cu/Al/Lithium/Minerals

145.7

153.0

15.5

4.6

20.3

7.3

5.4

2.1

3.9

48.2

6.2

13.0

31.9

21.2

176.3

15%

(14%)

(1%)

7%

(16%)

40%

10%

4%

33%

41%

23%

12%

196.0

0.78x

1.25x

1.17x

154.7

5.7

7.0x

-

-

-

4%

19%

6%

FMGSell

Fe(lowgrade)

33.2

13.3

12.4

14.3

7.2

6.5x

2%

(12%)

(2%)

S32NotRated

Al/Alumina/Cu/Zn/Mn/Ag

14.2

6.4

2%

0%

SFRNeutral

Cu/Zn/Pb/Au

6.6

20.0

17.3

22.7

5.5

6.0x

3%

1%

7%

WHCNeutral

Met/ThermalCoal

4.1

7.8

8.1

0.89x

1.28x

0.50x

0.86x

1.09x

0.56x

0.71x

0.79x

0.98x

0.85x

0.90x

7.4

5.3

5.0x

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

46.0

-

3%

10%

7%

NHCSell

Thermal/MetCoal

3.1

4.5

4.2

4.9

5.6

5.0x

10%

(6%)

8%

CIABuy

Fe(highgrade)

0.8

2.9

4.1

1.6

33.0

5.5x

0%

40%

(48%)

DRRNeutral

Fe&lithium

1.4

4.3

4.6

4.0

11.7

12.0x

5%

15%

3%

MINNeutral

Fe/Crushing/Lithium

6.7

50.0

44.1

56.3

6.0

6.8x

3%

6%

5%

ILUBuy

MinSands/RareEarths

1.8

8.2

10.9

0.0

28.4

10.0x

1%

34%

(13%)

LYCBuy

RareEarths

9.1

18.2

18.2

18.1

15.7

15.0x

1%

42%

2%

BSLBuy

Steel(valueadd)

9.7

39.3

40.2

37.4

5.3

6.3x

9%

32%

5%

SGMNeutral

Steel/Scrap(Fe,Cu,Al)

2.8

23.7

21.5

24.4

5.8

6.7x

3%

15%

9%

WeightedAverage

6.7

4%

15%

4%

SimpleAverage

10.6

4%

16%

(1%)

P/NAV

1.25x1.28x

1.17x

1.09x

0.98x

0.89x

0.86x

0.87x

0.78x

0.79x

0.71x

0.56x

0.50x

BHPRIOFMGSFRWHCNHCCIADRRMINILULYCBSLSGM

EV/EBITDA

28.4

15.7

6.7

33.0

RIO-AUSectorAve:6.0x

6.9

6.45.55.66.05.35.8

11.7

5.7

7.2

BHPRIOFMGS32SFRWHCNHCCIADRRMINILULYCBSLSGM

Buy

Sell

Impliedupside/downsidetoPT

40%41%

33%

23%

12%

15%11%

7%

10%

4%

(16%)

(1%)(14%)

BHPRIOFMGSFRWHCNHCCIADRRMINILULYCBSLSGM

Source:Companydata,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.

2

Commodity&FXforecasts

CalendaryearUnitSpot20242025Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'262026Q1'27Q2'27202720282029

1.46

0.84

1.36

0.88

1.36

0.88

1.62

0.89

BasemetalsActActActActActEstEstEstEstEstEstEst

US$/lb.

1.416.401.74

0.84

1.104.151.26

0.94

1.194.511.30

0.89

1.45

0.88

1.41

0.88

1.486.171.59

0.87

1.246.301.54

0.88

1.296.211.57

0.92

1.366.121.59

0.96

Aluminium

5.82

1.47

4,873

121

104

6.06

1.57

4,508

122

105

6.35

6.35

6.40

6.39

US$/lb.US$/lb.

CopperZinc

PreciousMetals

GoldSilver

1.59

4,285

98

1.73

4,263

97

1.59

4,228

97

1.59

4,285

98

LeadUS$/lb.

4,551

4,483

4,090

2,387

3,440

4,468

4,371

51.828.240.183.773.162.762.570.563.563.564.967.463.5

US$/ozUS$/oz

Bulks

US$/tUS$/t

109

94

82

116

82

88%

109

116%

13.613.3263205159147112

4.83

67

399

377

1,177

1,935

358

93

124

110

95

92

84%

120

110%

8.710.1241165144136157

5.39

64

502

404

1,368

1,873

295

87

115

102

89

88

86%

112

109%

9.09.018814111610873

4.58

79

386

376

1,335

1,627

348

73

Ironore(65%Fe)CFR

101

97

98

96

Ironore(61%Fe)CFR

91

89

94

92

US$/tUS$/t

US$/t

Ironore(58%Fe)CFR

80

80

82

82

85

84%

109

108%

13.624717314713489

5.04

66

326

82

84%

129

132%

14.325018414312492

5.79

70

380

81

84%

124

128%

14.624518214212791

5.54

70

370

81

84%

116

121%

15.024018014013090

5.30

70

355

Ironore(58%Fe-LowAlumina)CFRFMGrealisedprice(GSe)*

82%

115%

82%

99%

84%

119%

84%

119%

89%

109%

84%

109%

%

115

6.29.6235161

115

17.0240

180

115

17.0240

180

96

14.6249

178

106

11.113.3238161

US$/t

US$/tUS$/t

US$/tUS$/t

112

CIArealisedprice(GSe)*

%

Lumppremium

17.0265

190

Freight-Aus/China

AusHardCokingCoal(Qld)PCI

140

130

90

5.30

70

1,310

1,639

92

148

138954.8367

1,270

1,629

88

140

130

90

5.30

70

1,310

1,639

92

146

122

82

5.18

64

1,100

1,491

87

150

140

95

4.83

67

1,290

1,603

91

US$/tUS$/t

US$/t

US$/mnu

US$/t

144

135

82

5.31

64

1,250

1,447

86

Semi-soft(SSCC)Thermal(6000kcal)

Thermal(5500kcal)

Manganeseore(44%)CFR

Bauxite(CIF)

307

348

340

350

350

308

US$/t

Alumina

US$/tUS$/t

US$/t

Ilmenite

1,360

1,731

370

94

1,228

1,542

390

88

1,472

1,866

395

99

1,557

1,981

421

112

Rutile(ILUaveprice)*Zircon(ILUaveprice)*

373

978

392

1,150

370

1,100

392

1,193

370

1,100

403

1,082

US$/tUS$/lb

US$/st

Potash(Vancouver,FOB)Uranium

Steel

1,101

850

1,350

1,028

1,043

1,035

777

USMidwestHRC

460

550

390

590

370

665

208

646

214

460

550

390

590

370

665

208

646

214

432

494

352

502

378

575

166

600

172

464

520

376

536

381

759

214

802

197

462

515

372

532

370

771

212

755

182

US$/ltUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/tUS$/t

460

565

390

590

370

652

206

638

215

453

524

373

528

383

691

189

709

197

495

531

395

545

407

950

204

950

204

501

613

405

637

394

450

303

450

303

412

513

371

558

381

410

164

393

178

422

467

341

488

352

457

187

473

179

481

589

397

614

382

610

236

611

246

455

565

394

542

404

658

162

680

238

USBushelingScrapEastAsiaHRC(CFR)

EastAsiaScrap(CFR)

TurkeyHRC(CFR)

TurkeyScrap(CFR)

BSLNorthStarSpread(lagged)BSLAusSteelProducts(lagged)BSLNorthStarSpread

BSLAusSteelProducts(ASP)

LithiumandRareEarths

15,500

19,732

19,362

18,750

15,500

22,357

US$/t

11,167

15,375

12,170

16,875

9,319

16,762

20,050

Lithiumcarbonate(CIF)

17,772

2,185

110

251

1,127

17,950

2,150

110

600

2,000

14,750

1,825

115

700

2,500

18,804

2,015

108

248

1,103

14,750

1,825

115

700

2,500

US$/tUS$/tUS$/kgUS$/kgUS$/kg

20,610

2,446

108

249

1,115

16,065

1,403

124

786

2,816

10,949

1,365

107

253

1,133

14,844

1,380

121

760

2,721

8,769

842

68

232

995

10,083

974

54

256

813

16,200

1,664

118

734

2,627

18,784

2,199

109

337

1,336

Lithiumhydroxide(CIF)

Spodumene6%(CIF)

NdPr(China)-AsianMetalIndex

Dysprosium(China)-AsianMetalIndexTerbium(China)-AsianMetalIndex

0.70

0.70

0.70

0.72

0.73

0.75

966

927

889

0.69

0.66

0.64

0.71

0.73

0.72

979

944

951

Currencies

0.710.7216.5

0.20900

0.710.7116.3

0.19933

0.700.7116.6

0.19969

0.700.7116.7

0.19967

0.700.7116.7

0.19967

0.700.7316.4

0.19886

0.70

0.72

922

16.50.18

18.30.19

17.90.18

16.90.18

16.90.18

17.00.19

AUD:USDCAD:USD

16.40.19

USD:ZARBRL:USD

USD:CLP

1.426.051.621.00

4,40560.3

LT(real)LT(nom)

EstEst

1.225.221.400.86

3,80052.0

85

71

84%

112

132%

12.0

220

160

125

105

80

5.20

60

350

1,326

1,682

385

105

99

82

84%

130

132%

13.9

255

185

145

122

93

6.03

70

406

1,537

1,950

446

122

880

450

550

355

570

350

483

269

483

269

1,020

522

638

412

661

406

560

312

560

312

16,000

15,250

1,275

110

701

2,510

18,548

17,679

1,478

128

812

2,910

0.700.7617.00

0.19850

0.700.7617.0

0.19850

data,Investment3

Source:CompanyBloomberg,Platts,SMM,AsianMetals,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalResearch.

*SpotrutileandzirconareCIF.ILUaverageachievedpriceisFOB.FMGspotscenariousesGSeFepricerealisations.CIArealisedpriceincludeshighgrades66%finesand69%DRIfeed

*Spotsteelspreadsnotlagged.Pricesabovereflectpricescapturedincompanymodelsandmaynotreflectlatestforecastbycommodityteamupdates.ForecastlithiumpricesforChina(chemicalsexcl.VAT).

GSebasecasevsatspotpricesandFX

FY27FCFYield

FCFyield

9%

(2%2%)

(13%)(13%)

(42%)

6%

5%5%

6%

5%3%

3%3%

2%

0%

12%

12%

12%

8%

7%7%7%

9%5%

1%

1%

(48%)

BHPRIOFMGS32SFRWHCNHCCIADRRMINILULYCBSLSGM

GSeSpot

FY27DividendYield

Dividendyield

14%

10%

9%9%

4%3%

1%1%

0%0%

2%2%2%2%2%

1%1%

5%5%

4%4%

4%4%

3%3%

4%

3%

3%

BHPRIOFMGS32SFRWHCNHCCIADRRMINILULYCBSLSGM

GSeSpot

FY27EV/EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

40.9x

37.7x

35.0x

15.8x14.3x

7.4x

5.3x5.3x

4.3x

6.3x5.8x4.5x4.5x5.2x

5.7x6.4x7.0x5.5x

13.2x12.5x11.8x

3.7x4.0x

6.6x6.5x

4.0x

6.5x

5.8x

5.6x

7.3x

GSeSpot

%differenceinFY27UnderlyingEBITDA

%diffin

Underlying

202%

EBITDA

40%

28%

26%

22%

4%

1%

2%

0%

1%

0%

8%

(5%)(2%)

(1%)

(2%)

(7%)

(10%)

(13%)

(2%)(9%)(9%)(3%)

(11%)

(11%)

(17%)

(16%)

(70%)

BHPRIOFMGS32SFRWHCNHCCIADRRMINILULYCBSLSGM

Spotvs.GSeGSevs.Cons

4

Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,Platts,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.*ILUspotscenarioassumesspotFXonly

GSebasecasevsatspotpricesandFX

Under.EBITDA($bn)Under.NPAT($bn)FreeCashFlow($bn)NetDebt/(Cash)($bn)EPS(cps)DPS(cps)

YECrncy202720282029202720282029202720282029202720282029202720282029202720282029

EV/EBITDAP/E

202720282029202720282029

MajordiversifiedandIronore

BHPJuneUSDGSe

31.5

31.0

31.5

12.8

12.4

12.9

9.5

10.5

9.4

8.8

8.2

8.6

251

245

254

163

153

159

6.9

7.0

6.9

16.4

16.8

16.2

SpotDiff

31.9

33.3

35.2

13.0

13.6

14.9

9.9

12.0

11.8

8.4

7.1

6.5

256

268

293

166

168

183

6.8

6.5

6.1

16.1

15.3

14.0

1%

7%

12%

2%

10%

15%

4%

14%

26%

(4%)

(13%)

(25%)

2%

10%

15%

2%

10%

15%

(1%)

(7%)

(11%)

(2%)

(9%)

(13%)

RIODecUSDGSe

27.3

29.3

30.5

11.3

12.0

12.5

8.1

9.8

10.0

12.6

10.4

8.4

697

738

772

421

445

466

5.8

5.3

5.0

12.9

12.2

11.6

SpotDiff

28.0

31.5

33.8

11.8

13.4

14.5

9.5

11.0

11.7

11.5

8.9

6.0

727

824

893

444

498

540

5.6

4.9

4.5

12.3

10.9

10.1

3%

8%

11%

4%

12%

16%

18%

12%

17%

(9%)

(15%)

(28%)

4%

12%

16%

5%

12%

16%

(3%)

(8%)

(11%)

(4%)

(10%)

(13%)

FMGJuneUSDGSe

4.7

6.4

6.0

1.0

2.1

1.8

(0.6)

0.3

0.6

2.6

3.9

4.5

33

67

57

25

40

34

7.6

5.8

6.3

32.2

16.2

18.8

SpotDiff

Basemetals

4.8

6.6

6.4

1.1

2.2

2.0

(0.6)

0.5

0.9

2.6

3.8

4.3

35

71

66

25

43

39

7.5

5.6

5.9

30.5

15.1

16.4

2%

3%

6%

6%

7%

15%

(4%)

60%

45%

1%

(3%)

(5%)

6%

7%

15%

0%

7%

15%

(2%)

(3%)

(7%)

(5%)

(7%)

(13%)

S32JuneUSDGSe

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.0

(0.3)

0.1

0.2

0.8

1.0

23

21

16

6

5

3

6.6

6.9

7.3

13.8

15.6

21.1

SpotDiff

2.3

2.7

2.6

1.2

1.3

1.0

0.2

(0.0)

0.4

0.1

0.5

0.6

19

22

16

7

9

6

6.1

5.5

5.8

12.1

11.3

14.2

8%

22%

23%

14%

39%

49%

242%

95%

238%

(67%)

(31%)

(42%)

(20%)

5%

2%

21%

57%

88%

(8%)

(19%)

(21%)

(12%)

(28%)

(33%)

SFRJuneUSDGSe

1.2

1.2

1.1

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.3

(0.6)

(0.8)

(0.9)

84

102

111

42

51

55

5.0

4.7

4.9

16.1

13.2

12.2

SpotDiff

Coal

1.2

1.3

1.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

(0.6)

(0.9)

(1.0)

85

116

134

43

58

67

4.9

4.3

4.2

15.8

11.6

10.1

0%

8%

15%

2%

14%

21%

1%

15%

43%

(1%)

(7%)

(16%)

2%

14%

21%

2%

14%

21%

(0%)

(8%)

(15%)

(2%)

(12%)

(17%)

WHCJuneAUDGSe

1.4

1.4

1.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.1

1.4

1.4

1.6

49

66

61

20

29

30

5.2

5.3

5.6

15.4

11.6

12.5

SpotDiff

1.7

2.2

2.3

0.6

1.1

1.1

0.7

0.8

0.8

1.1

0.7

0.5

77

135

145

31

61

72

4.1

3.1

2.8

9.8

5.6

5.2

22%

55%

68%

57%

106%

138%

77%

254%

465%

(21%)

(49%)

(67%)

57%

106%

138%

57%

107%

138%

(22%)

(42%)

(49%)

(36%)

(51%)

(58%)

NHCJulAUDGSe

0.75

0.81

0.75

0.34

0.38

0.34

0.37

0.53

0.48

(0.22)

(0.32)

(0.44)

41

45

40

54

45

40

5.8

5.2

5.5

13.2

11.9

13.3

SpotDiff

0.94

1.20

1.27

0.48

0.66

0.72

0.54

0.82

0.87

(0.34)

(0.44)

(0.61)

57

78

85

77

78

85

4.4

3.4

3.1

9.4

6.8

6.3

26%

49%

69%

40%

74%

111%

43%

55%

79%

(52%)

(40%)

(40%)

40%

74%

111%

43%

74%

111%

(23%)

(35%)

(43%)

(29%)

(43%)

(53%)

SmallironoreandLithium

CIAMarCADGSe

0.1

0.5

0.6

(0.2)

0.1

0.1

(0.5)

0.1

0.1

1.1

1.1

0.9

(37)

13

23

0

0

0

41.5

4.6

3.6

(5.6)

15.5

8.7

SpotDiff

0.2

0.5

0.7

(0.1)

0.1

0.2

(0.5)

0.1

0.2

1.1

1.0

0.8

(22)

19

37

0

0

0

13.4

4.1

2.8

(9.2)

10.8

5.4

202%

9%

21%

39%

43%

61%

12%

44%

46%

(6%)

(9%)

(17%)

39%

43%

61%

-

-

-

(68%)

(13%)

(24%)

(64%)

(30%)

(38%)

DRRJuneAUDGSe

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

25

26

27

20

20

20

11.9

11.4

10.9

15.8

15.0

14.5

SpotDiff

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

24

25

26

19

19

20

12.6

11.8

11.2

16.7

15.5

14.9

(5%)

(4%)

(3%)

(5%)

(3%)

(3%)

(2%)

(5%)

(4%)

(1%)

1%

2%

(5%)

(3%)

(3%)

(5%)

(3%)

(3%)

5%

4%

3%

5%

4%

3%

MINJuneAUDGSe

2.3

2.3

2.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.44

0.97

1.03

4.26

3.76

3.15

261

246

316

130

123

158

6.0

5.8

5.2

18.5

19.6

15.2

SpotDiff

2.1

2.3

2.6

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.31

0.90

1.11

4.38

3.84

3.19

174

235

360

87

117

180

6.8

6.0

4.9

27.7

20.5

13.4

(11%)

(1%)

5%

(33%)

(4%)

14%

(30%)

(7%)

9%

3%

2%

1%

(33%)

(4%)

14%

(33%)

(5%)

14%

13%

2%

(5%)

50%

4%

(12%)

RareEarthsandMineralSands

ILUDecAUDGSe

0.1

0.9

1.1

(0.2)

0.2

0.3

(0.5)

0.4

0.4

1.9

1.6

1.2

(47)

47

80

5

26

20

39.1

4.6

3.5

(13.3)

13.2

7.7

SpotDiff

0.1

0.9

1.1

(0.2)

0.2

0.3

(0.5)

0.4

0.4

1.9

1.6

1.2

(45)

47

79

5

26

20

36.3

4.6

3.5

(13.7)

13.3

7.8

8%

(0%)

(0%)

3%

(0%)

(1%)

1%

(0%)

(0%)

(1%)

(1%)

(1%)

3%

(0%)

(1%)

(0%)

(1%)

1%

(7%)

(0%)

0%

(3%)

0%

1%

LYCJuneAUDGSe

0.8

1.5

2.1

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.2

0.8

1.2

(1.0)

(1.4)

(2.0)

49

103

148

17

52

74

15.5

7.8

5.3

26.5

12.5

8.8

SpotDiff

0.7

1.3

1.8

0.4

0.9

1.3

0.2

0.6

1.0

(1.0)

(1.2)

(1.6)

44

86

124

14

43

62

17.1

9.3

6.4

29.7

15.1

10.4

(9%)

(15%)

(15%)

(11%)

(17%)

(16%)

(17%)

(28%)

(20%)

3%

14%

16%

(11%)

(17%)

(16%)

(18%)

(17%)

(16%)

10%

20%

20%

12%

20%

19%

Steel

BSLJuneAUDGSe

2.7

2.6

2.8

1.4

1.1

1.3

0.7

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.0

314

255

289

280

240

220

5.5

5.8

5.3

10.2

12.6

11.1

SpotDiff

3.8

4.5

4.9

2.2

2.6

2.9

1.3

2.6

2.7

0.6

(0.8)

(2.5)

500

594

661

280

240

220

3.8

2.9

2.3

6.4

5.4

4.9

40%

75%

74%

59%

133%

128%

80%

115%

139%

(49%)

172%

342%

59%

133%

128%

0%

0%

0%

(31%)

(50%)

(56%)

(37%)

(57%)

(56%)

SGMJuneAUDGSe

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.1

182

129

101

64

45

35

5.5

6.5

7.1

11.6

16.4

21.1

SpotDiff

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.3

(0.0)

(0.4)

267

277

275

94

97

96

4.2

3.8

3.5

7.9

7.6

7.7

28%

58%

76%

47%

115%

173%

39%

113%

164%

(29%)

116%

372%

47%

115%

173%

47%

115%

173%

(24%)

(41%)

(50%)

(32%)

(53%)

(63%)

Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,Platts,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.*ILUspotscenarioassumesspotFXonly

5

GSebasecasevsatspotpricesandFX

DividendYield(%)FCFYield(%)EBITDAMargin(%)ROA(%)ROCE(%)Gearing(ND/ND+E)Leverage(ND/EBITDA)

2027

2028

2029

2027

2028

2029

202720282029

202720282029

2027

2028

2029

2027

2028

2029

YECrncy

202720282029

MajordiversifiedandIronore

BHPJuneUSDGSe

4%

4%

4%

5%

5%

4%

53%

52%

52%

10%

9%

9%

16%

15%

15%

13%

11%

11%

0.3x

0.3x

0.3x

Spot

4%

4%

4%

5%

6%

6%

53%

54%

55%

10%

10%

10%

17%

16%

17%

12%

9%

8%

0.3x

0.2x

0.2x

RIODecUSDGSe

4%

4%

4%

6%

7%

7%

46%

46%

46%

8%

8%

8%

13%

13%

13%

14%

11%

9%

0.5x

0.4x

0.3x

Spot

4%

5%

5%

7%

8%

8%

46%

48%

49%

8%

9%

10%

13%

14%

14%

13%

9%

6%

0.4x

0.3x

0.2x

FMGJuneUSDGSe

2%

4%

3%

(2%)

2%

2%

33%

40%

39%

3%

6%

5%

5%

9%

8%

12%

16%

18%

0.6x

0.6x

0.7x

Spot2%

Basemetals

4%

4%

(2%)

3%

3%

35%

41%

41%

3%

7%

6%

6%

10%

9%

12%

16%

17%

0.6x

0.6x

0.7x

S32JuneUSDGSe

2%

2%

1%

0%

1%

8%

43%

43%

38%

7%

6%

4%

11%

9%

6%

2%

7%

8%

0.1x

0.4x

0.5x

Spot

2%

3%

2%

1%

3%

3%

44%

48%

44%

8%

8%

6%

12%

12%

9%

0%

5%

5%

0.0x

0.2x

0.2x

SFRJuneUSDGSe

3%

4%

4%

7%

4%

1%

59%

60%

58%

10%

11%

11%

22%

23%

21%

(26%)

(34%)

(30%)

(0.5x)

(0.7x)

(0.8x)

Spot2%

Coal

3%

3%

7%

6%

6%

59%

62%

62%

10%

12%

12%

22%

25%

25%

(26%)

(36%)

(35%)

(0.5x)

(0.7x)

(0.8x)

WHCJuneAUDGSe

3%

4%

4%

7%

2%

3%

24%

23%

22%

3%

5%

4%

6%

8%

8%

19%

20%

21%

1.0x

1.0x

1.2x

Spot

4%

8%

10%

12%

14%

14%

27%

31%

31%

5%

9%

9%

9%

16%

17%

15%

10%

7%

0.6x

0.3x

0.2x

NHCJulyAUDGSe

10%

8%

8%

8%

11%

9%

35%

36%

34%

10%

11%

10%

16%

18%

17%

(10%)

(15%)

(22%)

(0.3x)

(0.4x)

(0.6x)

Spot

14%

15%

16%

12%

19%

19%

40%

45%

46%

13%

18%

20%

22%

31%

37%

(15%)

(21%)

(32%)

(0.4x)

(0.4x)

(0.5x)

SmallironoreandLithium

CIAMarCADGSe

0%

0%

0%

(48%)

12%

15%

4%

26%

29%

(5%)

2%

3%

(11%)

1%

3%

43%

40%

35%

20.7x

2.2x

1.6x

Spot

0%

0%

0%

(42%)

18%

18%

10%

28%

33%

(3%)

3%

5%

(8%)

2%

6%

40%

36%

28%

6.5x

1.9x

1.1x

DRRJuneAUDGSe

5%

5%

5%

3%

7%

7%

95%

95%

95%

26%

27%

26%

43%

40%

41%

(52%)

(77%)

(248%)

1.0x

0.8x

0.6x

Spot

5%

5%

5%

3%

7%

7%

95%

95%

95%

24%

26%

26%

41%

39%

41%

52%

43%

33%

1.0x

0.8x

0.6x

MINJuneAUDGSe

3%

3%

3%

5%

11%

15%

33%

33%

34%

4%

4%

5%

2%

2%

4%

45%

41%

35%

1.9x

1.6x

1.3x

Spot

3%

3%

3%

3%

12%

12%

31%

32%

35%

3%

3%

6%

0%

1%

5%

47%

42%

35%

2.1x

1.7x

1.2x

RareEarthsandMineralSands

ILUDecAUDGSe

1%

4%

3%

(19%)

17%

10%

12%

43%

46%

(4%)

4%

6%

(3%)

8%

12%

50%

41%

33%

16.3x

1.7x

1.1x

Spot

1%

4%

3%

(19%)

17%

17%

13%

72%

88%

(4%)

3%

6%

(3%)

8%

12%

50%

41%

33%

15.1x

1.7x

1.1x

LYCJuneAUDGSe

1%

4%

6%

2%

9%

13%

51%

65%

68%

10%

19%

23%

19%

35%

45%

(33%)

(40%)

(51%)

(1.3x)

(0.9x)

(0.9x)

Spot

1%

3%

5%

1%

8%

8%

48%

61%

65%

9%

16%

20%

17%

29%

37%

(33%)

(35%)

(43%)

(1.4x)

(0.9x)

(0.9x)

Steel

BSLJuneAUDGSe

9%

8%

7%

5%

8%

9%

15%

14%

14%

8%

7%

7%

12%

9%

11%

9%

9%

8%

0.4x

0.4x

0.4x

Spot

9%

8%

7%

9%

20%

20%

20%

22%

22%

12%

13%

13%

19%

21%

23%

5%

(6%)

(19%)

0.2x

(0.2x)

(0.5x)

SGMJuneAUDGSe

3%

2%

2%

9%

5%

6%

9%

8%

7%

7%

5%

4%

14%

10%

8%

13%

8%

4%

0.5x

0.4x

0.2x

Spot

4%

5%

5%

12%

13%

13%

11%

11%

10%

10%

10%

9%

19%

19%

18%

9%

(1%)

(11%)

0.3x

(0.0x)

(0.4x)

Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,Platts,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.*ILUspotscenarioassumesspotFXonly

6

GSebasecasevs.VAConsensus

Revenue($bn)

Opex($bn)

UnderlyingEBITDA($bn)

UnderlyingNPAT($bn)

FreeCashFlow($bn)

NetDebt($bn)

YECrncy

202720282029

202720282029

202720282029

202720282029

202720282029

202720282029

(28.45)

(28.55)

(29.18)

31.48

31.05

31.55

59.93

59.60

60.73

12.89

10.53

12.76

12.43

USD

GSe

BHP

9.49

9.40

8.76

8.15

8.63

Jun

Cons.

58.35

57.95

58.90

(26.13)

(25.78)

(26.28)

32.21

32.17

32.62

12.75

12.84

13.21

11.44

11.19

11.18

8.00

6.35

5.65

%

3%

3%

3%

9%

11%

11%

(2%)

(3%)

(3%)

0%

(3%)

(2%)

(17%)

(6%)

(16%)

10%

28%

53%

RIODec

USDGSe

59.82

63.39

66.40

(32.52)

(34.09)

(35.88)

27.30

29.30

30.52

11.31

11.97

12.53

8.10

9.82

10.04

12.64

10.44

8.36

Cons.

63.66

65.80

67.66

(32.98)

(33.42)

(34.51)

30.68

32.38

33.15

12.92

13.61

14.10

9.56

12.17

13.55

10.49

6.23

0.98

%USDGSe

Cons.

(6%)

(4%)

(2%)

15.32

14.80

(1%)

2%

4%

(9.31)

(8.55)

(11%)

(9%)

(8%)

(12%)

(12%)

(11%)

1.76

2.17

(15%)

(19%)

(26%)

0.59

1.35

20%

68%

750%

FMGJun

14.21

15.75

(9.50)

(9.39)

4.71

6.36

6.01

1.03

2.05

(0.62)

0.28

2.63

3.95

4.50

14.52

14.78

(8.84)

(8.61)

5.68

6.17

6.25

1.88

2.07

0.07

0.77

1.88

2.67

2.40

%USDGSe

Cons.

(2%)

7%

4%

5.40

6.03

8%

9%

9%

(3.33)

(3.34)

(17%)

3%

(4%)

(45%)

(1%)

(19%)

0.67

1.14

(1039%)

(63%)

(56%)

0.12

1.06

40%

48%

88%

S32Jun

5.13

5.06

(2.95)

(2.88)

2.18

2.18

2.07

1.03

0.91

0.05

(0.27)

0.16

0.77

0.96

5.34

5.68

(2.89)

(3.05)

2.45

2.63

2.69

1.08

1.14

1.12

0.31

(0.94)

0.15

(0.47)

%USDGSe

Cons.

(4%)

(11%)

(10%)

1.90

1.83

2%

(6%)

(0%)

(0.79)

(0.74)

(11%)

(17%)

(23%)

(5%)

(21%)

(41%)

0.52

0.49

(96%)

(187%)

(88%)

0.28

0.49

(117%)

402%

(307%)

SFRJun

1.97

1.94

(0.81)

(0.77)

1.15

1.17

1.11

0.39

0.48

0.47

0.47

(0.57)

(0.82)

(0.85)

1.96

1.90

(0.80)

(0.75)

1.16

1.15

1.09

0.51

0.51

0.57

0.60

(0.63)

(0.94)

(1.15)

%AUDGSe

Cons.

0%

2%

4%

6.13

6.04

2%

2%

6%

(4.77)

(4.60)

(1%)

2%

2%

(23%)

(6%)

6%

0.48

0.36

(18%)

(22%)

(42%)

0.15

0.51

(10%)

(12%)

(26%)

WHCJun

5.90

6.06

(4.49)

(4.67)

1.41

1.39

1.36

0.39

0.51

0.40

0.23

1.39

1.42

1.60

6.01

6.01

(4.40)

(4.52)

1.61

1.49

1.44

0.46

0.41

0.52

0.39

1.27

1.16

0.88

%AUDGSe

Cons.

(2%)

1%

1%

2.20

2.13

2%

3%

4%

(1.45)

(1.42)

(13%)

(7%)

(6%)

(16%)

25%

33%

0.34

0.30

(23%)

(42%)

(71%)

0.48

0.43

10%

23%

83%

NHCJul

2.12

2.22

(1.37)

(1.41)

0.75

0.81

0.75

0.34

0.38

0.37

0.53

(0.22)

(0.32)

(0.44)

2.24

2.14

(1.42)

(1.42)

0.83

0.72

0.71

0.43

0.32

0.50

0.44

(0.13)

(0.18)

(0.28)

%CADGSe

Cons.

(6%)

3%

3%

1.95

2.08

(3%)

(1%)

2%

(1.39)

(1.34)

(10%)

12%

5%

(20%)

19%

14%

0.13

0.28

(24%)

22%

13%

0.14

0.35

68%

80%

56%

CIAMar

1.48

1.83

(1.42)

(1.35)

0.05

0.47

0.56

(0.20)

0.07

(0.54)

0.07

1.13

1.06

0.92

1.63

1.97

(1.44)

(1.38)

0.18

0.59

0.74

(0.12)

0.18

(0.48)

0.22

0.67

1.12

0.95

%AUDGSe

Cons.

(9%)

(7%)

(6%)

0.21

0.23

(1%)

(2%)

4%

(0.01)

(0.01)

(70%)

(20%)

(24%)

71%

(59%)

(53%)

0.14

0.14

14%

(70%)

(61%)

0.14

0.14

67%

(5%)

(3%)

DRRJun

0.20

0.21

(0.01)

(0.01)

0.19

0.20

0.20

0.13

0.14

0.06

0.13

0.18

0.15

0.12

0.21

0.22

(0.01)

(0.01)

0.19

0.21

0.21

0.13

0.14

0.05

0.15

0.13

0.18

0.15

%AUDGSe

Cons.

(4%)

(7%)

(7%)

7.26

6.49

(26%)

(24%)

(12%)

(4.80)

(4.23)

(2%)

(6%)

(6%)

2%

(0%)

(1%)

0.63

0.54

8%

(14%)

2%

1.03

0.91

39%

(16%)

(20%)

MINJun

6.99

6.94

(4.70)

(4.66)

2.30

2.28

2.46

0.52

0.49

0.44

0.97

4.26

3.76

3.15

6.50

6.42

(4.23)

(4.17)

2.28

2.25

2.27

0.57

0.52

1.39

0.70

3.19

2.78

2.25

%AUDGSe

Cons.

8%

8%

12%

2.37

2.27

11%

12%

14%

(1.27)

(1.22)

1%

1%

8%

(9%)

(7%)

17%

0.34

0.41

(69%)

39%

12%

0.44

0.58

34%

35%

40%

ILUDec

0.97

2.12

(0.85)

(1.20)

0.12

0.92

1.10

(0.20)

0.20

(0.51)

0.36

1.90

1.59

1.24

1.02

1.84

(0.82)

(1.05)

0.20

0.79

1.05

(0.07)

0.23

(0.32)

0.25

1.77

1.63

1.27

%AUDGSe

Cons.

(5%)

15%

4%

3.08

2.46

4%

14%

4%

(0.99)

(0.84)

(42%)

17%

5%

171%

(12%)

(17%)

1.49

1.06

58%

43%

(24%)

1.23

0.91

7%

(2%)

(2%)

LYCJun

1.53

2.33

(0.76)

(0.82)

0.77

1.50

2.09

0.49

1.04

0.20

0.80

(1.03)

(1.37)

(1.95)

1.54

2.11

(0.69)

(0.73)

0.85

1.38

1.62

0.54

0.89

0.17

0.64

(0.90)

(1.48)

(2.28)

%AUDGSe

Cons.

(1%)

10%

25%

19.95

18.36

9%

13%

18%

(17.12)

(15.87)

(9%)

9%

29%

(9%)

17%

40%

1.26

1.10

15%

25%

35%

1.15

1.27

14%

(7%)

(14%)

BSLJun

18.40

18.87

(15.66)

(16.29)

2.74

2.59

2.83

1.37

1.11

0.70

1.20

1.15

1.13

1.03

18.31

18.07

(15.49)

(15.52)

2.83

2.55

2.49

1.42

1.18

1.04

1.42

1.01

0.75

0.45

%AUDGSe

Cons.

0%

4%

9%

9.04

9.07

1%

5%

8%

(8.44)

(8.28)

(3%)

1%

14%

(4%)

(6%)

14%

0.19

0.34

(33%)

(15%)

(10%)

0.20

0.35

14%

52%

131%

SGMJun

8.62

8.84

(7.81)

(8.17)

0.81

0.67

0.60

0.35

0.25

0.35

0.24

0.41

0.26

0.14

8.60

8.88

(7.77)

(8.07)

0.83

0.81

0.78

0.36

0.35

0.45

0.37

0.07

(0.14)

(0.33)

%

(M.Capwtd.)(Simpleavg.)

0%

(0%)

(0%)

0%

1%

2%

8%

5%

(2%)

(16%)

(23%)

(3%)

(28%)

(42%)

-6%

-4%

(23%)

(35%)

(43%)

-24%

-27%

523%

(286%)

(142%)

Totalvs.Cons

-1%

1%

2%

5%

7%

-7%

-5%

-4%

-8%

-6%

-95%

-20%

15%

52%

268%

Totalvs.Cons

-2%

2%

3%

1%

3%

-14%

-3%

-2%

7%

-7%

-90%

-25%

51%

29%

49%

Source:VisibleAlphaConsensusData,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.

7

GSeCommoditypricevs.VACons&Forwardcurve

CalendaryearUnitSpotQ4'262026Q1'27Q2'27Q3'272027202820292030

4,400

4,571

-4%

4,219

65

67

-3%

54

6.26

6.181%

6.36

7.71

7.710%

4,342

4,562

-5%

4,219

64

67

-4%

54

6.35

6.232%

6.36

7.71

7.700%

4,285

US$/oz

Gold

GSe

VACons.

%

Forw.Curve

GSe

VACons.

%

Forw.Curve

GSe

VACons.

%

Forw.Curve

GSe

VACons.

%

4,483

4,372

3%

4,783

64

58

9%

66

6.12

6.17-1%

6.43

8.76

8.049%

8.33

1.59

1.4510%

4,405

4,120

7%

4,856

60

53

15%

4,551

4,459

2%

4,646

67