WindEnergyNagy

1、Wind Energy Engineering: Market Segments, Discovery, Competition, Value Propositions Dennis Nagy July 21, 2009,Agenda,Webex procedure and comments Wind Energy Market segments Wind Energy Engineering Market segments: 1st Pass Qualifying: Research, Questions & Pain Points Wind Energy Engineering Marke

2、t segments: 2nd Pass Lists of major players Typical prospect profiles Competition (SWOT) Validation of CFD for wind engineering applications CD-adapco value propositions Further resource materials,2,Rules of Engagement for this Webinar,The information here might be known to some of you, but the purp

3、ose is to bring everyone up to the same level In order to stick to the schedule/limit of 1 hour We cant afford to get sidetracked into any lengthy discussions among us all, during the webinar I will pause 2-3 times to answer short typed (in the Webex sidebar) questions or defer them until after the

4、webinar (via e-mails and/or individual phone-calls) Therefore, please mute your microphones There is plenty of material here (and plenty of gaps!), so Id like you to mainly listen, note questions, and we can always elaborate/clarify after the Webinar,3,Comments,Industry/Sector Management (especially

5、 in new(er) industries/segments) is a two-way street between sales/pre-sales support and Sector Management: I am not a career guru in O&G or Wind (and no one else in CD-adapco is, either) As I/we learn the structure and pain-points of the industries and how we can sell into them, I need your input/i

6、nsight, too. Part of my role is to consolidate/organize/spread individual learning around to all sales people (because Trip Reports, even when/if the get written, dont do that well enough) So please invite me to come along* (or participate via Webex, if there is one planned) on all Energy-relevant s

7、ales calls/meetings, and copy me on any e-mails that result. *I dont insist on presenting anything, unless you want me to (they are your meetings), and wont be able to join you, most of the time, but I want the opportunity,4,Wind Energy: Market Segments,Large “public” farms: produce commercial elect

8、ricity for utilities, must be connected to the larger electricity grid Multiple large turbines: 100 kW up to 7.5+ MW each farms are 1 to 300+ MW output capacity (up to 1400+ turbines) Wind farm siting/planning/power output forecasting is a major part of such projects here is where a major problem ex

9、ists today: almost all built farms end up yielding at least 10% less power than predicted during the planning/financing stage Small farms and individual turbines: produce electricity for small communities, individual companies, or private use Small turbines: 10 kW, often developed by “tinkerers” Les

10、s interest in accurate wind predictions/simulation, sometimes located on buildings “Back to the Future”: There were once over 500,000 small wind turbines in the U.S., for rural electricity, prior to the REA (1936),5,What is the largest wind farm in the world? Well, right now its the Horse Hollow Win

11、d Energy Center in Texas. This wind farm has 421 wind turbines that generate a total capacity of 735 megawatts.,The Main Pains,“An industry-wide systemic power underproduction in the range of 10-15% now exists, as well as incurring much higher than expected maintenance and repair costs.” Neil D. Kel

12、ley, Bonnie J. Jonkman National Wind Technology Center National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) December 15, 2008,6,Power underproduction: for example, at “only” 10% underproduction, a public electric utility operating a 150 MW farm (typical larger farm) would have a revenue shortfall of US$130 m

13、illion/year at the US$0.10/KW-hour electricity rate, compared to their planning/financing model believed to be due mainly to overestimation of power output of a turbine farm, because of inaccurate wind-farm flow simulation during the farm planning/design and/or inability to accurately take into acco

14、unt the wake effects (reduced flow and turbulence) of “upstream” turbines on their “downstream” neighbors Higher maintenance costs: due to earlier fatigue risk/failure of blades, in turn due to inaccurate estimation of turbulent wind-induced transient fatigue loads on blades,Do you get the CFD-relev

15、ant picture?,Blade Failure (Slightly Accelerated Fatigue) (unfortunately a Vestas turbine!),7,Focus on Wind Energy Engineering Market: A Wide Range of Important Roles for 3-D Simulation,Why? Growing importance of wind energy in all major CD-adapco geographies Our Vestas win is an excellent example o

16、f one of our key value propositions being validated by the worlds largest Wind Energy company!,Meso-scale-based weather/wind modeling Wind farm planning/design/operation Planning/turbine siting proposals. Detailed planning/estimating of power yield from a proposed farm Medium-term power “real-time”

17、output predictions (multiple days into the future) of existing wind farms Determining more accurate wind loadings onto turbine blades/tower Blade design Turbine design often lumped together for small turbines (100 kW) Tower design Cooling of electronics in the generator and transmission Design of su

18、rplus energy storage (because wind energy supply is variable, doesnt synchronize with variable demand),Wind Energy Engineering Simulation: Market Segments 1st Pass,9,Discovery: Research, Qualifying Questions & Pain Points,10,Research: wind energy company websites are actually pretty clear on what th

19、ey do and you can get an idea of their size, which segments they play in, and whether they use any high-tech methods already. Qualifying questions: First, if you havent already, try contacting those who attended the April 30 wind webinar (410 people) or at least registered (another 546)all in SFDC:

20、and ask them “what attracted you to the webinar?” After showing that youve done a little homework on their company, Do they personally (or their colleagues) do engineering of wind farms, blades, and/or turbines? Large “public” size, or small “private” ones? What are their chief challenges in that en

21、gineering work? (if they dont mention power output shortcomings and/or component failure, ask a leading question or two) Do they use any engineering software? (Take names & compare with the SWOT list later in this presentation) If this seems like common sense, its because it is!,Wind Energy Webinar

22、(April 30): Simulation for Wind Farm Siting (Vestas),11,*Glitch at WebEx prevented another 100 from logging in!,Understanding the Market Segments: Pass 2,You can ask the right questionsbut will you understand the answers? ”phrasebook vs. language course” analogy The industry in new, so they dont exp

23、ect us to be veteran experts in wind energy engineering But everyone is going after the “alternative energy” money, so We/you need to gain the trust of your prospects up front via showing them that you understand something about what they do and that CD-adapco is serious about this industry e.g., Bl

24、ack & Veatch visit June 3 Wind Energy Engineering: 2nd Round Detail,12,Segmentation: Flow Models Applied in Wind Energy,Despite their known limitations, Wind Atlas methods are seen as the standard for wind energy purposes. The limited flow model capabilities consist of a set of simplified descriptio

25、ns of wind flow in the atmospheric boundary layer, based on semi-empirical correction models. Another class of models, the so-called mass-consistent models, apply only to a subset of the physical flow equations, which are solved numerically. The result is that such mass-consistent models have limita

26、tions similar to the Wind Atlas methods. A more realistic flow simulation, based on the numerical solution of a more complete set of flow equations, is achieved with dynamic wind flow models. Such models can be divided into meso-scale atmospheric models and micro-scale CFD models. This is us,13,Meso

27、-Scale-based Weather/Wind Modeling,Macro-weather data simulated/interpolated down to, at best, 1 x 1 km. grid size via a form of quasi-2-D CFD Interpolation or linear flow simplification of wind speed, turbulence down to 100 m grid This step is often skipped by just measuring wind at a proposed farm

28、 for 1-2 years via guyed masts The weather modeling simulation can produce useable estimates of such measurement data within weeks rather than years Some companies active in this segment: Garard-Hassan (major global consulting/software company specializing in wind engineering), Precision Wind (new V

29、C-backed start-up interested in partnering with CD-adapco for more accurate resolution below the 1 km. grid size),14,Wind Farm Planning/Design/Operation,Preliminary planning: turbine siting proposals. Cheaper specialized/verticalized software tools do simplified (“linear”) simulations of wind over t

30、he whole farm terrain, from either measured data at points or meso-scale wind simulations Initial broader use of 3-D CFD in practice (by some of the better vertical tools) does not (yet) add in any effects of the actual turbines/blades on the overall flow over the farm (down-wind wake & turbulence).

31、 This is where we won the Vestas business (see more later about competitive basis for that win) Detailed planning: estimating of power yield from a farm with proposed turbine locations (for financial models and business cases) here is where a major problem exists today: almost all built farms end up

32、 yielding at least 10% less power than predicted during the planning/financing stage CD-adapco can contribute here by adding in effects of turbines (turbulent wake, diminished power content in wind downstream) via actuated disks and detailed turbine/blade simulations to calibrate the disk properties

33、 Medium-term power output predictions (multiple days into the future) of existing wind farms Required by electric utility companies for planning/accepting power “into the grid” from wind farms Important future role for fast CFD (HPC clusters) once the industry believes in the accuracy of CFD-based p

34、ower output simulations,15,Blade Design,Determining accurate wind loadings onto turbine blades (and thus part of the loadings on the shaft, turbine, and tower) Use of CFD results from wind farm simulations locally for each turbine set and individual blades Determine stresses/deflections of blades Fa

35、tigue life (currently 20-year requirement) Nonlinear FSI “necessary” as blades get longer and more flexible (thin-wall shell composites) Blade tip deflection in maximum wind Avoid contact with tower,16,Single Turbine Blade Pressure Plot,2006 Paper Using STAR-CD,17,Turbine Component/System Design,Tur

36、bine (components): the structure/machinery (a hub, nacelle, shaft plus the machinery inside the nacelle) that converts the moving-blade-induced rotary motion of the shaft into electricity (usually with gears) Semantics: sometimes the turbine, blades, and tower are collectively called “the turbine” (

37、system) Heat is generated by mechanical friction and generator operation (no combustion as in our more familiar turbomachinery) Therefore, need for cooling from wind (what does this remind you of?),18,Size Matters!,19,Clipper Windpower: 7.5 MW Wind Turbine,The worlds largest wind turbine is now the

38、Enercon E-126. This turbine has a rotor diameter of 126 meters (413 feet).,Tower Design,More a structural/bending/buckling issue Wind loadings and vibrations from the turbine blades play a role, but less than for the blades themselves,20,Offshore Wind Farm Design,Terrain (ocean surface) is of course

39、 much flatter (less terrain-induced wind turbulence variations) but. Turbine wakes are much longer Need for CFD to represent wakes accurately Turbine towers are becoming floating/moored structures as farms move further from shore Need for CFD to compute wind loads on turbine blades/tower, wave loads

40、 on base, current loads on mooring cables,21,CD-adapcos Marine reputation/strength should be leveraged here,Design of Surplus Energy Storage,Battery banks (see our recent initiatives in battery technologyRichard Johns) Subterranean pressurized storage of some gas (air?) Pump down during excess elect

41、ricity availability Release through turbine generators during excess demand Traditional pumped hydrostorage,22,CD-adapco: Were just beginning to learn,23,“Kiddie” background: More detailed background:,Competition and SWOT Analyses,Traditional “generic” CFD: the usual suspects Ansys (Fluent, CFX), Me

42、taComp (CFD+), BRNI (CFdesign), Numeca (FineTurbo), and yes! CHAM (Phoenics) Wind-Engineering-specific software: mostly for wind farm simulation CFD-based: WindSim (Norway) Meteodyn (France) Ventos (Scotland via Portugal and France) WindMap (?) Based on simpler methods for wind flow over terrain (or

43、 take their input from CFD): WindFarmer WAsP WindPRO openWind (open source) METRAS (MEsoscale TRAnsport and Stream):,24,ANSYS/CFX vs. STAR-CCM+,Because wind involves turbines, CFX (and to a lesser extent Numeca) has a visibility/penetration edge* but no real technology edge, and a big disadvantage i

44、n workflow integration (which is why we beat CFX and Metacomp/CFD+ at Vestas for wind farm planning!) For example, Vestas, Siemens and GE use CFX in their wind energy groups because theyve either used CFX elsewhere in much bigger groups historically or recruited CFD engineers from such groups Butwe

45、see the same displeasure with ANSYS price/renewal policy, poor customer support andthey are wowed by seeing STAR-CCM+ demonstrated And now we have Harmonic Balance which should really help us in accurate transient simulations to deliver much more accurate fatigue loadings on blades,25,Harmonic Balan

46、ce (HB): Competitor information,NUMECA: FineTurbo ADVANTAGES over STAR-CCM+ NLHB implementation since 2007 Multi-row implementation ADVANTAGES of STAR-CCM+ over FineTurbo Implementation is fully non-linear (unlimited number of harmonics) - will deal with large amplitudes. Turbulence is implicit to t

47、he HB treatment. The competitor code “mixes out” or “freezes” the turbulence across blade rows. Efficient use of memory. Apparently the developer of FineTurbos HB admits that our implementation is better (talk to Fred Mendonca for details) ANSYS: Is known to be working on HB,Harmonic Balance: Furthe

48、r Resources,27,28,29,30,OpenWind + WindMap (?),31,GH WindFarmer: Wind Farm Design Software,32,WAsP the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program,33,WindPro,34,35,METRAS,36,WindScape/RaptorNL,37,Validation of (our) CFD,Wind farm simulation Best business validation is the fact that Vestas chose CD-a

49、dapco! Bolund Blind experiment (Risoe/DTU in DK): we are participating, will conclude in Nov. 09 Possible partnership with Black & Veatch and Texas Tech Wind Science and Engineering Research Center will visit on July 24 Chinook/DNV(GEC) benchmark may be usable more widely? Turbine Blade CFD Has “cro

50、ss-over” validation from our reputation in aeroelastic validations (Drag Prediction Workshop, NAVAIR missiles, Lockheed Martin missile, and otherssee presentation by D. Vaughn available in SFDC) Turbine cooling: a lot like Underhood and Under-Nacelle Cooling (jet aircraft)! =well-validated by long M

51、ercedes history,38,The Vestas Win: Summary and Significance (more details in Steve Evans presentation),The Vestas Case (Summary),Vestas is the worlds largest wind turbine manufacturer: 20% market share Over 35,500 turbines installed Full-service company,40,Need for robust CFD simulation of proposed

52、wind farms: For access by over 100 field sales/planning engineers with no CFD background Automated CFD, embedded into Vestas proprietary Site Check tool Rapid turnaround,Vestas Site Check Tool for Wind Farm Layout Design,41,In the Background, on the Vestas Central HPC Cluster in Denmark,42,And How I

53、s It Done?,43,An excellent example of customizable STAR-CCM+ (for workflow in any industrial application,Scaling of STAR-CCM+ Application on Vestas Cluster,44,The Business Benefit to Vestas,Previous procedure required field engineers to send a request and files to Vestas Headquarters CFD Group for p

54、rocessing: Average turnaround time to receive necessary 3-D CFD simulation results (data, plots) in standard Vestas report form: 3 weeks New, automated “push-button” procedure, embedded into Vestas Site Check: Now fully deployed (since April 2009) to over 100 Vestas engineers around the world Averag

55、e turnaround time from pushing the button to receiving an e-mail with the needed reports: 2 hours,45,A productivity speed-up of 250:1,Future Vestas Developments,46,Bolund Blind Experiment,Being conducted by Risoe/DTU in Denmark Measured wind data (4 months) on Bolund Island (DK) 100 different models

56、/methods (from different vendors and research establishments around the world) will be run to compare (blind) with the measurements CD-adapco has submitted two “models” (both with STAR-CCM+): RANS and DES Will be run during Sept/Oct 09 Results (anonymous) will be presented at Risoe Workshop,47,Furth

57、er CD-adapco Activities,EnviroWizzard: “beta” prototype of Java-based generic wizard (works within STAR-CCM+) to facilitate Wind park planning and power output estimations Contaminant tracking Emission propagation It is not a CD-adapco product, but an illustration of how to quickly develop a workflo

58、w-specific Java wizard in STAR-CCM+ Actuated disks: First level of approximately representing multiple turbines in a farm and their wake effects on down-wind turbines,48,Further CD-adapco Activities,Detailed simulations of single “turbine-blades-tower“ configurations For obtaining accurate dynamic b

59、lade loadings For calibrating/tuning actuated disk models (wake effects) For turbine cooling input,49,50,Value Propositions,Value-added (similar to our general value-added points): More accuracy (but we still need to prove this) Much faster (because most others are not parallelized as well as STAR-CCM+) a win factor at Vestas (250:1 productivity improvement, when combined with automated workflow) Able to be integrated into automated workflows (a win factor at Vestas) Easier to use Proven excellence in cu