第八章 指标体系.ppt

1、The Sustainable Development Indicators System可持续发展的指标体系,Chen Zhiying,Contents,8.1 Indicators of sustainable development 8.1.1 introduction of indicator 8.1.2 introduction of indicator system? 8.2 Innovation of sustainable development,8.1 Indicators of sustainable development8.1.1 introduction of ind

2、icator, what is indicator？ -number or ratio (a value on a scale of measurement) derived from a series of observed facts; category of indicator quantity indicator quality indicator, the function of indicator Indicators can provide crucial guidance for decision-making in a variet

3、y of ways. -They can translate physical and social science knowledge into manageable units of information that can facilitate the decision-making process. They can help to measure and calibrate(校准） progress towards sustainable development goals. They can provide an early warning, sounding the alarm

4、in time to prevent economic, social and environmental damage. They are also important tools to communicate ideas, thoughts and values., Pyramid of sustainable development,8.1 Indicators of sustainable development8.1.2 introduction of indicator system?, the purpose of SD indicator syste

5、m -构建评估信息系统，揭示发展中的问题，分析原因，评价发展水平， 引导贯彻可持续发展战略。 The principle of SD indicator system （1）政策相关性(policy relevance) 对压力-状态-响应之间的关系有代表性的描述 简明、易于理解，能够显示出随时间变化的趋势 （2）易于分析(analytical soundness) 理论上具有科学和技术基础 以国际性标准及其有效性的国际共识为基础 自身可以同经济模型、预测和信息系统连接起来 (3)可测定性(measurability) (4)层次性原则Principle of hierarch

6、y,自然区域的可持续指标体系及其应用1. 跨国自然区域的指标体系及其实践2. 国内自然区域的指标体系及其应用 国际组织建立的可持续发展指标体系1. 联合国可持续发展委员会的指标体系2. 联合国经济合作与发展组织的指标体系 3.欧洲可持续发展指标体系的方法 国家尺度的可持续发展指标体系与应用1. 英国的可持续发展指标体系2. 芬兰的可持续发展指标体系3. 德国可持续发展指标体系的开发4. 瑞典的可持续发展指标体系 5.瑞士的可持续发展指标体系6. 丹麦的可持续发展指标体系,不同区域尺度的指标体系及其实践1. 省级尺度的可持续发展指标体系2. 县域和社区可持续发展指标体系3. 城市区级以及社区的可

7、持续发展指标体系 城市可持续发展指标体系评价1. 新西兰玛努卡市的可持续发展性指标体系2. 欧洲城市可持续发展指标3. 中国南京市可持续发展指标体系4. 四川省攀枝花市可持续发展评价指标体系 专题要素的指标体系评价1. 水环境指标在匈牙利的应用2. 加拿大环境公共卫生的指标标准3. 建设中的加拿大公众健康环境指标4. 丹麦健康公众调查中的环境卫生指标5. 城市地区环境可持续性指标:意大利的经验6. 欧洲环境指标构建, SDI Framework 国际上可持续发展指标体系构建的四大主流方向: 一是生态学方向,其代表有生态足迹(EF),价值化的生态服务指标(ES),美国国家尺度生态指

8、标,生态系统健康力指数; 二是经济学方向,其代表是国民财富指标,即真实储蓄率(GSR),绿色净国内生产总值(AEANDP),即绿色(GDP)核算体系; 三是社会政治学方向,最具有代表性的是联合国开发计划署(UNDP)的人文发展指标(HDI),真实发展指数(GPI)和可持续经济福利指数(ISEW); 四是系统学方向,其代表是中科院可持续发展研究组提出的可持续能力(SC)指标体系,联合国可持续发展委员会(UNCSD)国家尺度主题指标体系,压力-状态-响应(PSR)及驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)框架体系等. 这些指标体系分别从不同的角度,构建可量度的可持续发展指标体系.,8.1.2.

9、4 联合国可持续发展委员会（UNCSD）驱动力-状态-响应(Driving force-state-response),The framework employed in the CSD work programme to guide the selection of sustainable development indicators has evolved from a driving force-state-response approach to one focusing on themes and sub-themes of sustainable development. This

10、 change in organizational framework has been prompted by the experience of countries that assisted CSD in testing and developing indicators of sustainable development. An expert group advising CSD, as well as the testing countries themselves, recommended the adoption of a theme approach. What follow

11、s is a brief history of this evolution and the rationale for the change to achieve a small core set of sustainable development indicators useful for decision-makers.,DSR Framework,The early indicator work under CSD organized the chapters of Agenda 21 under the four primary dimensions of sustainable

12、developmentsocial, economic, environmental, and institutional. Within these categories, indicators were classified according to their driving force,state, and response characteristics; adopting a conceptual approach widely used for environmental indicator development. Table 2 illustrates the essence

13、 of this framework.,Driving force -represents human activities, processes, and patterns that impact on sustainable development either positively or negatively. State indicators -provide a reading on the condition of sustainable development Response indicators -represent societal actions aimed at mov

14、ing towards sustainable development.,The testing enabled countries to evaluate the appropriateness of the driving force-state-response framework; use alternative and supplementary indicators appropriate for national circumstances; and suggest additional indicators related to national priorities.,Ado

15、ption of a Theme/Sub-theme Framework,Table 3: Key Themes Suggested by CSD Testing Country Priorities,As a result of this iterative process, a final framework of 15 themes and 38 sub-themes has been developed to guide national indicator development beyond the year 2001. It covers issues generally com

16、mon to all regions and countries of the world. It should be noted that the organization of themes and sub-themes within the four dimensions of sustainable development represents a best- fit to guide the selection of indicators.,Table 4: CSD Theme Indicator Framework,Core Indicators,Core Indicators W

17、ithin the context of the theme framework, the objective of selecting a minimum number of indicators as a core set could be realized.,Table 5: Selection of CSD Indicators by Testing Countries, 压力-状态-响应(PSR),PSR的特征 综合性：面向人类活动和自然环境变化 灵活性：适用于描述大范围的环境现象 因果关系：强调了社会经济运做及其对环境的影响之间的互动关系,The Pressure-S

18、tate-Response model,The usefulness of indicators can be increased by putting them in an appropriate context or framework. The most widely accepted of the many proposals is the so-called Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, which divides indicators in three categories : The PSR model was developed in

19、 the 1970s by the Canadian statistician. The European Commissions indicator development follows this framework.,Figure 1: The Pressure-State-Response model, The Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model,Figure 2: The Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response model,For prac

20、tical purposes, and in particular for the goals described in the Green Accounting Communication, the PSR model is sufficient. However, for compatibility reasons (e.g. to the DSR model), and for a better description of underlying economic trends, the indicator community has formulated the Driving for

21、ce-Pressure-State-Impact-Response model, which includes P-S-R as special cases. Please note that, the UN CSD indicator process uses the DSR model, where the term “Driving Forces” is used synonymous for “Pressure” .,DPSIR,D -Driving forces are underlying factors influencing a variety of relevant vari

22、ables. Examples: the number of cars per inhabitant; total industrial production; GDP. P -Pressure indicators describe the variables which directly cause (or may cause) environmental problems. Examples: toxic emissions, CO 2 emissions, noise etc. caused by road traffic; the parking space required by

23、cars; the amount of waste produced by scrap cars. S -State indicators show the current condition of the environment. Examples: the concentration of lead in urban areas; the noise levels near main roads; the global mean temperature.,DPSIR,I -Impact indicators describe the ultimate effects of changes

24、of state. Example: the percentage of children suffering from lead-induced health problems; the mortality due to noise-induced heart attacks; the number of people starving due to climate-change induced crop losses. R -Response indicators demonstrate the efforts of society (i.e. politicians, decision-

25、makers) to solve the problems. Examples: the percentage of cars with catalytic converters; maximum allowed noise levels for cars; the price level of gasoline; the revenue coming from pollution levies; the budget spent for solar energy research. Eurostat focuses on Driving force (e.g. sectoral trends

26、), Pressure and Response indicators, and on linking such indicators to standard socio-economic statistics. Complementary to this effort, the European Environment Agency (EEA) will concentrate on state and impact indicators, and on a comprehensive description of the full PSR chain.,1.2.3 Main propert

27、ies and functions of indicators in the DPSIR framework D Driving force indicators are not very responsive (elastic): the monitored phenomena, e.g. road traffic, are driven by powerful economic forces, and therefore it can hardly be expected that these trends will change drastically in future. For ex

28、ample, politicians cannot seriously suggest to abolish private cars, if they want to stay in office. However, Driving force indicators are useful to: a) calculate a variety of pressure indicators, e.g. by multiplying the mileage of cars with specific coefficients like average CO 2 per car and km; b)

29、 help decision-makers to plan actions (responses) needed to avoid future problems (pressures), for example the capacity of roads; c) serve as a basis for scenario development and long-term planning. P Pressure indicators point directly at the causes of problems. One specific feature of pressure indi

30、cators is that they should be responsive, that is, a decision-maker has indeed a chance to reduce the indicator (and thus the problem) by launching appropriate actions. They will also serve as an incentive for rational solutions, since they demonstrate the effectiveness of political action early eno

31、ugh to hold responsible those who launched the action. S State indicators, in contrast, are often too slow. For example, a state indicator showing the acidity of forest soils points back to the NO x and SO 2 emissions of the last ten years; the politically responsible persons may have retired in the

32、 meantime. On the other hand, state indicators can serve to make a first assessment of the situation (what is the current state of the forest soils? where could corrective measures be applied?) , and they are certainly appropriate tools to plan habitat restoration and similar clean-up activities.,I

33、Impact indicators react even slower than state indicators. When the impacts are felt, it is usually too late for action. In addition, it is rarely possible to establish solid statistical correlations between pressures, state, and impacts, due to the enormous delays and the influence of non-environme

34、ntal variables. The main purpose of impact indicators is to demonstrate DPSIR patterns, in particular: cause-effect chains , and to facilitate informed discussions about actions to avoid negative impacts in future. In this sense, they are not statistical indicators, but scientific decision models. R

35、 Response indicators are very fast, since they monitor the measures which are intended to make the slow socio-economic system move. Examples: 1. rising energy prices due to the introduction of an energy tax can be observed immediatey, while the full effects of this measure (decreasing energy use and

36、 CO 2 emissions due to behavioural, technological and other adjustments) will be noted only five to ten years later; 2. the volume of money spent by public authorities and industry for environmental protection measures can serve as a quick indication whether appropriate actions have been launched. T

37、here is no a priori guarantee, however, that political responses (actions, measures, instruments, budget increases, .) will be useful and efficient; the monitoring of success can be performed only through pressure and state indicators http:/esl.jrc.it/envind/theory/handb_03.htm.,Example: DPSIR used

38、for description of air pollution in urban areas,D,P,S,I,R,Driving Force,Pressure,State of Environment,Impact,Response,D,P,S,I,R,Driving Force,Pressure,State of Environment,Impact,Response,Driving forces: Indicators for most important activities creating air pollution,Driving forces: Traffic in Kathm

39、andu Indicator - example: No. of vehicles,Number of vehicles registered in KTM,Driving forces: Traffic Splitting data into vehicle types,Source: CEN/ENPHO Report of 2003,Impact,I,R,Response,State of Environment,S,D,P,Driving Force,Pressure,Pressure on environment and health: Indicators for most impo

40、rtant emissions to air,Pressure Indicators: Emissions to air Emission inventory,Estimate of emissions from Traffic Energy production Industry Mining Others,Pressure Indicators: Emissions to airEmission inventory (Example from Kathmandu),D,P,S,I,R,Driving Force,Pressure,State of Environment,Impact,Re

41、sponse,State of the environment: Indicators for most important Air Pollution concentrations in outdoor air,State Indicators: Air quality in urban areasExample: Dust concentration (PM10), urban air in Hanoi,mg/m3,D,P,S,I,R,Driving Force,Pressure,State of Environment,Impact,Response,Impact of pollutio

42、n: Indicators for health effects and environmental effects,Lung diseases (COPD Cases) reg. in Kathmandu, NepalCOPD Cases on the rise in last 5 yrs.,Source: Prof. Dr. Bimala Shrestha, Institute of Medicine,D,P,S,I,R,Driving Force,Pressure,State of Environment,Impact,Response,Response to pollution pro

43、blems: Indicators for the actions taken by society to reduce impacts,Responses to air pollution impacts,No. of industries complying with Gov. Decree No. 64 Introduction of cleaner energy production sources Vehicle emission control (% of vehicles passing emission test) Better fuel quality (sulfur con

44、tent in diesel and coal) Green areas in cities,Driving forces The general development in population Relevant sectors Transport Industry Service Households Energy,Pressures Emission of pollutants: NO, NO2, SO2, NH3, Particles (PM10), NMVOC, Lead, CH4, CO, dioxin,State of the Environment Air quality i

45、n urban areas: NO, NO2, SO2, Particles (PM10), O3, Lead, CO, dioxin etc. Pollution of food grown in urban areas,Impacts Ecosystems in urban areas parks etc. Agriculture in vicinity of pollution sources Human health: e.g. respiratory diseases and disorders, cancer, nervous system diseases, excess pre

46、mature mortality,Responses Mitigating actions Environmental policies to reach environmental state objectives (e.g. standards and criteria to regulate the pressures) Sector policies (limits and control on sector development to reduce/change the activities or the pressures these activities produce) Environmental awareness Specific poverty reduction measures,URBAN AIR: Summary,Inland surface water,Driving forces The general development in population Agriculture Aquaculture Hydropower Water supply In