Multinational Financial Management（跨国公司财务管理）ch05 International Economic Linkages and Balance of Payments.ppt

1、CHAPTER 5,International Economic Linkages and Balance of Payments,PART I. BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,A.THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (B-O-P) 1.PURPOSE: Measures all financial and economic transactions over a specified period of time.,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,2.Double-entry bookkeeping a. Currency in

2、flows = credits earn foreign exchange b. Currency outflows = debits expend foreign exchange,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,3.Three Major Accounts: a.Current b.Capital c.Official Reserves 4.Current Account records net flow of goods, services, and unilateral transfers.,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,5.Cap

3、ital Account a. Function: records public and private investment and lending. b. Inflows = credits c. Outflows = debits,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,5.Capital Account (cont) d. Transactions classified as 1.) portfolio 2.) direct 3.) short term,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,6.Official Reserves Account

4、a. Function: 1.) measures changes in international reserves owned by central banks. 2.) reflects surplus/deficit of a.) current account b.) capital account,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,6.Official Reserves Account (cont)b. Reserves consist of 1.) gold 2.) convertible securities,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATE

5、GORIES,7. Net Effects: a. Sum of all transactions must be zero: 1.) current account 2.) capital account 3.) official reserves,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,8.The Balance-of-payment measures a. Some Definitions: 1.) Basic Balance a.) consists of current account and long-term capital flows.,BALANCE-OF-

6、PAYMENTCATEGORIES,1.) Basic Balance (cont) b.) emphasizes long-term trends.,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,1.) Basic Balance (cont) c.) excludes short-term capital flows that heavily depend on temporary factors.,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIES,2.) Net Liquidity Balance: measures the change in private do

7、mestic borrowing or lending require to keep payments equal without adjusting official reserves.,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,3.)Official Reserve Transactions Balance - measures adjustments needed by official reserves.,PART II. THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL,II.LINKS FROM INTE

8、RNATIONAL TO DOMESTIC FLOWS A.Global Linkages set of basic macroeconomic identities which link: domestic spending and production to current and capital accounts,THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL,B. Domestic Savings and Investment and the Capital Account 1.National Income Account

9、ing a. National Income (NI) is either spent (C) or saved (S) NI = C + S(5.1),THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL,b. National spending (NS) is divided into personal spending (C)and investment (I) NS = C + I (5.2),THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL,c. Subtracting

10、 (4.2) - (4.1) NI - NS = S - I(5.3) If NI NS, S I which implies that surplus capital spent overseas.,THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL,d.In a freely-floating system, excess saving = the capital account balance e.Implications: 1.A nation which produces more than it spends will sa

11、ve more than it invests domestically with a net capital outflow producing a capital account deficit.,THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL,2.A nation which spends more than it produces has a net capital inflow producing a capital account surplus. 3.A healthy economy will tend to run

12、 a current account deficit.,THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL,C.THE LINK BETWEEN THE CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS 1.Beginning identity NI - NS = X - M(5.4) where X = exports M = imports X-M=current account balance (CA),THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL,2.Com

13、bining (5.3) + (5.4) S - I = X - M(5.5) 3. If S - I = Net Foreign Investment (NFI) NFI = X - M(5.6),THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL,4.Implications: a.If CA is in surplus, the nation must be a net exporter of capital. b.If CA is a deficit, the nation is a major capital importer

14、. c.When NS NI, the excess must be acquired through foreign trade.,THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL,d.Solutions for Improving CA deficits: 1.)Raise national income (output) relative to domestic investment (I). 2.)Increase (S) relative to domestic investment (I).,THE INTERNATION

15、AL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL,D.GOVERNMENT BUDGETS AND CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS 1. CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CA = Saving Surplus - Govt budget deficit,THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS, SERVICES, AND CAPITAL,2. CA Deficit means the nation is not saving enough to finance (I) and the deficit. 3.

16、 CA Surplus means the nation is saving more than needed to finance its (I) and deficit.,PART III. COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT,I.POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS UNLIKELY TOWORK: A.Currency Depreciation B. Protectionism,COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT,II.CURRENCY DEPRECIATION A. U.S. Experience

17、: Does not improve the trade deficit.,COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT,B.Depreciations are ineffective because 1.It takes time to affect trade. 2.J-Curve Effect states that a decline in currency value will initially worsen the deficit before improvement.,THE J - CURVE,TIME,Net change in trade

18、 balance,0,Currency depreciation,Trade balance initially deteriorates,Trade balance improves,COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT,III.PROTECTIONISM A.Trade Barriers used: 1.Tariffs 2.Quotas B.Results: Most likely will reduce both X and M.,COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT,C.FOREIGN OWNERSHIP one protectionist solution would place limits on or eliminate foreign ownership leading to capital inflows.,COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT,D.STIMULATE NATIONAL SAVING change the tax regulations and rates.,COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT,III.SUMM